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David Blatt
Oklahoma Policy Institute
dblatt@okpolicy.org - (918) 859-8747
Oklahoma‟s Path to Prosperity
$7,500
$7,043
$7,000 $6,760
$6,500 $6,217
$6,000
$5,389 $5,491 $5,459
$5,500 $5,191 $5,145
$4,981
$5,000
$4,500
$4,000
FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08
Budget Trends: FY „02 – FY „09
$776.9
$800.0 $651.1
$561.8
$600.0
$400.0 $333.3
$200.0 $144.8
$18.7
$0.0
FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10
sour c e : Ok l a homa Ta x C ommi ssi on
Budget Trends: FY ‟02 - FY ‟09
FY‘07 – FY’08: Revenue Slowdown
General Revenue collections were almost flat in FY ‘08
compared to FY ‘07 (+%0.9, $54 million)
5.0% 4.0%
0.9%
0.0%
-5.0%
-5.3%
-6.6%
-10.0%
FY '02 FY '03 FY '04 FY '05 FY '06 FY '07 FY '08
Budget Trends: FY ‟02 - FY ‟09
FY ’09 Budget: Tightening the Screws
Most agencies appropriations frozen from FY ‘08
No funding for benefit cost increases teacher salary increases, state
employee raises
11.5 10.2%
Unemployment Rate (%)
10.5
9.5
8.5
7.1%
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09
Oklahoma National
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2007.2 2007.3 2007.4 2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2
U.S. Oklahoma
Budget Trends: FY „10
$140.00
$10.00
$120.00
$8.00
$100.00
$6.00 $80.00
$60.00
$4.00
$40.00
$2.00
$20.00
$- $-
Apr-1994
Apr-2005
Oct-1999
Dec-1986
Nov-1987
Oct-1988
Aug-1990
Mar-1995
Dec-1997
Nov-1998
Aug-2001
Mar-2006
Dec-2008
Jan-1986
Jul-1991
Jun-1992
Feb-1996
Jan-1997
Jul-2002
Jun-2003
Feb-2007
Jan-2008
Sep-1989
May-1993
Sep-2000
May-2004
U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)
-30.0% -27.7%
-30.1%
-35.0%
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
Budget Trends: FY „10
FY ’10 Budget: Revenues on the Skids
In February, FY ‗10 revenues estimated to come in >$600
million below FY ‘08 ;
6,500
General Revenue Collections,
FY '06 Actual - FY '10 Estimated (in $million)
5,981.1 5,946.4
6,000 5,902.7
5,710.0
5,649.2
5,500 5,407.2
5,356.6
5,000
FY '06 Actual Fy '07 Actual FY '08 Actual FY '09 June FY '09 FY '09 FY '10
December February Feburary
Budget Trends: FY „10
FY ‘10 Budget
$7,231.2 million total, including $641 million ARRA (stimulus)
Increase in total appropriations of $106 million (1.5 percent)
compared to FY ‗09
State dollars only: $500 million less than in FY ‘09
4,500
4,000
FY'00 FY'01 FY'02 FY'03 FY'04 FY'05 FY'06 FY'07 FY'08 FY'09 FY'10
State Appropriations ARRA
-10.0%
-8.5%
-20.0% -19.1%
-21.5% -21.1% -23.7%
-30.0% -27.7% -26.3%
-30.1% -30.1% -30.5%
-40.0% -31.6%
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept. Oct Nov
Budget Trends: FY „09 – FY „10
FY ’10 : Off to a Very Rough Start
Three consecutive quarters of worsening collections
Revenue drops more than twice as steep as during the
last downturn
Quarterly Year-over-Year Change in GR Collections,
Oklahoma, FY '02 - FY '10
30.0%
20.0%
9.9%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-15.3%
-20.0% -12.1%
-26.3%
-30.0%
-29.5%
-40.0%
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
'02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10
Budget Trends: FY „09 – FY „10
FY ’10 : Off to a Very Rough Start
1st quarter revenues lower than 9 years ago – without
adjusting for inflation or economic growth
Total
HB 1017 Appropriations=
25% $2,572.1 million
General
*Other includes Prior
Stimulus (ARRA) Revenue Year GR, Gross
6% 65% Production Tax, Mineral
Leasing Fund
Budget Trends: FY „09 – FY „10
FY ‘10 : How Large a Shortfall?
December certification projects a $729 million (14.2
percent) shortfall in FY ‘10 GR collections.
$80 million shortfall in HB 1017 Fund as well
Total mid-year shortfall of $809 million
FY '10 General Revenues - Original vs.
Revised Projections
$5,600 $5,415
$5,400
$5,145
$5,200
$5,000
$4,800
$4,600 $4,415
$4,400 $729
million
$4,200
$4,000
100% Estimate - June Appropriation (95%) December Projection
Budget Outlook: What Response?
Shortfall Options
Rainy Day Fund is filled to maximum amount of $597
million
Left untouched for initial FY ‗10 budget
Rainy Day Fund Balances, FY '01 - FY '09
(opening balance in $ millions)
$700
$596.6
$600 $571.6
$496.7
$500 $461.3
$400 $340.9
$300
$217.5
$200 $157.5
$100 $72.3
$0.1
$0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Budget Outlook: What Response?
Shortfall Options
Full RDF potentially available for shortfalls in FY ‗10
Rainy Day Fund can be accessed as follows:
3/8th for a mid-year shortfall in GR collections; ($224M)
3/8th for a projected decline in GR collections for the
coming year compared to the current year ($224M);
1/4th upon declaration of an emergency and legislative
approval ($149M)
Uses of Constitutional
Reserve Fund
Emergency,
25.0% - $149M Current Year
Revenue
Failure, 37.5% -
$224M
Forthcoming
Year Shortfall,
37.5% - $224M
Budget Outlook: What Response?
Shortfall Options
Projected shortfall of $809 million shortfall could be filled
by:
RDF shortfall funds (3/8ths) - $224 million +
RDF emergency funds (1/4) - $149 million +
Full year across-the-board cuts of 7.5 percent
FY ‘10 Forecast Shortfalls and Rainy Day Fund Impacts ($ in millions)
Forecast Appropriated FY ‘10 General % Shortfall % Shortfall % Shortfall % Shortfall % Shortfall
Amount Projected Revenue + with no with 3/8ths with 5/8ths with 3/4 of with all of
(GR+1017) Revenue 1017Shortfall Rainy Day of RDF of RDF RDF RDF
Fund ($224M) ($373M) ($448M) ($597M)
December $ 5,777 $4,968 $ 809 14.0% 10.1% 7.5% 6.2% 3.7%
projections
Budget Outlook: What Response?
FY ‘11: More of the Same?
FY ‗11 revenue collections projected to remain
almost unchanged from FY ‘10 and over 25 percent
below pre-downturn (FY ‗08) levels
$5,000
4,415 4,449
$4,500
$4,000
FY '06 Actual FY '07 Actual FY '08 Actual FY '09 Actual FY '10 June FY '10 Dec FY '11 Dec
(estimated) (projected) (estimated)
Budget Outlook: What Response?
Budget Outlook
What‘s the plan?
Seems to involve:
Keep cutting agency budgets every month
Keep borrowing from any and all available reserves to make
up the difference
Tap the Rainy Day Fund to fill part of the gap
Special Session in January?
Budget Outlook: What Response?
Budget Outlook
Gov. Henry: ―Unfortunately, the cuts we have been forced
to implement to date are already taking their toll on state
programs and services‖ (Nov. 10, 2009)
Even at 5 percent monthly cut level, the toll is growing:
Stimulus Round II
About half of the State Fiscal Stabilization Fund and enhanced
Medicaid funds remains available
Other Revenues?
SQ 640 requires a 3/4th vote of both legislative chambers or
vote of the people at time of next general election to raise taxes;
Continuing search for one-time revenues.
Budget Outlook: Beyond FY „10
Budget Outlook
Time-released tax cuts still kicking in
Additional revenues automatically allocated for ROADS
and OHLAP
Use of one-time funds in FY ‗10 and FY ‗11 create
significant problems for FY ‗12
Budget Outlook: Beyond FY „10
Budget Outlook: No Quick Recovery
Revenues unlikely to recover to pre-downturn nominal
levels prior to FY ‗13
$5,938 $5,953
$6,000
$5,518 $5,945
$5,000 $5,275
$4,000 $4,439 $4,735
$3,000
$2,000 Estimates by OK Policy
(pre-December
$1,000 certification)
$-
FY 07 (act.) FY 08 (act.) FY 09 (act.) FY 10 (est.) FY 11 (est.) FY 12 (est.) FY 13 (est.)
Fiscal Year
Budget Outlook : Beyond FY „10
Short-Term Recommendations
1. Develop and share greater information about projected
shortfalls, impact of actual and potential cuts, possible
solutions
• Structural deficit: A
situation that occurs
when a state‟s “normal
growth of revenues is
insufficient to finance
the normal growth of
expenditures year after
year”
(CBPP, “Faulty Foundations: State Structural
Budget Problems”)
Long-Term Fiscal Outlook
Oklahoma’s Structural Deficit
Projected Annual Budget Surpluses and Deficits
Before and After 2004-2006 Tax Cuts (2007 to 2035)
1,000
500
0
M i l l i o n $2005
(1,000)
After Tax Cuts
(1,500)
(2,000)
(2,500)
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Year
Source: Projections conducted in 2007 by Dr. Kent Olson, Professor of
Economics, Oklahoma State University
Long-Term Fiscal Outlook
Long-Term Recommendations
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