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BeBo Lab Water Af

Contention One is US-Mexico Water Supplies
!e US-Mexico bor"er is i"eal #or cooperati$e approac!es to
%ater &ana'e&ent( ransboun"ar) %ater supplies
bet%een t!e& are a *e) test case #or 'lobal %ater
initiati$es to establis! efecti$e a"apti$e #ra&e%or*s(
Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady,
Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy
% of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy
St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of
Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of
Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,-
Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3
International bor"ers brin' into relief the co&plex an" "i$erse spatial an"
!u&an "i&ensions o# cli&ate c!an'e( !e U(S(,Mexico bor"er re'ion is
bot! e&ble&atic-&an) countries s!are transboun"ar) cli&atic re'i&es-
an" exceptional-in#re.uentl) "oes an international bor"er /uxtapose
nei'!bors %it! suc! "iferin', highly une$en "e$elop&ent, although some other border
areas bear important similarities. 0or countries s!arin' lan" bor"ers1 t!e i&pacts o#
an" a"aptation to cli&ate c!an'e in t!e transboun"ar) context pose
si'ni2cant c!allen'es (Pavlakovich-Kochi, Morehouse, and Wastl-Walter 2!". #n increasing body of
scholarship has emerged on the specter of global insecurity due to unstable and ine$uitable environmental
governance practices. %his research calls for a greater a&areness of the security challenges' broadly interpreted'
associated &ith managing scarce &ater and other resources in the conte(t of climate change ()erlak, *arady, and
+averland 2,- ./0rien, 1t. 2lair, and Kristo3erson 24". Water securit)1 particularl) in a
transboun"ar) context1 &ust increasin'l) consi"er cli&ate c!an'e1
!)"rolo'ic1 econo&ic1 an" institutional "i&ensions o# access to an"
reliabilit) o# suppl) o# %ater #or expan"in' populations( 5nternational fora, referred to
as 3'lobal %ater initiati$es4 by *arady et al. (26, 4", !a$e been establis!e"
speci2call) to a""ress t!is &ulti"i&ensionalit)( A$oi"in'
3!)"rosc!i5op!renia4 an" pro&otin' 3!)"rosoli"arit)4 a&on' countries
co&petin' o$er conteste" an" increasin'l) scarce %ater resources are
principal 'oals of this body of &ork (7alkenmark 24- 8arvis et al. 29". 6et national aspects
o# t!ese c!allen'es t)picall) re&ain t!e #ocus o# polic)&a*in' and scholarship.
We suggest that explicit attention to transboun"ar) c!allen'es o# cli&ate
c!an'e coul" )iel" fresh and bene2cial insi'!ts. In t!e case o# t!e United States
an" Mexico1 "e$elopin' national a"apti$e responses to cli&ate c!an'e1
%it!out re#erence to political and social re'i&es across t!e 71+++-&ile bor"er1
!as often )iel"e" less-than-optimal, even !ar&#ul outco&es. 7or e(ample, &hen in 26 the :.1.
;epartment of +omeland 1ecurity e(tended its border &all at <ogales, &ithout consulting Me(ican o=cials,
subse$uent thunderstorm runo3 >o&ing north&ard into #ri?ona became trapped and backed up, >ooding numerous
stores and homes in Me(ico and causing signi@cant property damage. 1imilar proble&s !a$e occurre"
alon' t!e bor"er1 as %!en t!e Unite" States unilaterall) li&ite" seepa'e
losses in t!e All - A&erican Canal1 %!ic! con$e)s Colora"o 8i$er %ater to
San Die'o1 b) linin' t!e c!annel alon' t!e bor"er %est o# 6u&a1 Ari5ona(
In response1 Mexico 2le" suit in international court to see* re"ress for the loss
of ground&ater recharge (from the canal seepage" that had for many decades served a maAor irrigation district and
sustained critical &etlands habitat. 5n another e(ample, Me(ico/s nonpayment of its &ater debt to the :nited 1tates,
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per terms of the 4,!! treaty governing sharing the &aters of the Bio )rande, erupted in 22 into a maAor
geopolitical dispute. 5n the past, suc! #ailures to a""ress transboun"ar) issues
cooperati$el) !a$e o#ten c!aracteri5e" binational relations. ;espite this history,
recent initiatives in collaborative, transboundary environmental management'particularly for &ater and
&aste&ater' have become more common, &ith the emergence of binational institutions such as the 0order
Cnvironment 2ooperation 2ommission. %his article argues for a transboun"ar) approac! to
i&pro$e t!e a"apti$e capacit) to cli&ate c!an'e1 especiall) #or %ater
resources &ana'e&ent1 in t!e Ari5ona,Sonora re'ion. #daptation to climate change
is con$entionall) un"erstoo" to be &ore "i9cult at international bor"ers.
6et &e maintain that re'ional a"apti$e responses across bor"ers coul" increase
resilience an" "ecrease $ulnerabilit) to cli&atic c!an'es( Suc! cross-
bor"er approac!es can e&er'e t!rou'! s!are" social learnin' an"
*no%le"'e1 b) creatin' binational co&&unities o# practice1 suc! as a&on'
%ater &ana'ers or "isaster-relie# planners1 an" b) a""ressin' ine.uities
resultin' #ro& une$en "e$elop&ent( We su''est t!at t!e stren't!enin' o#
institutional net%or*s an" t!e copro"uction o# cli&ate *no%le"'e across
bor"ers en!ance a binational re'ion:s lon'-ter& a"apti$e capacit) an"
ransboun"ar) cooperation is i&paire" b) a lac* o#
#ra&e%or*s #or "ata collection an" s!arin' bet%een t!e
t%o states , s&all local "ata collection initiati$es !a$e
"e&onstrate" t!e potential but re.uire expan"e" scope
to be efecti$e #or t!e bor"er re'ion(
Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady,
Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy
% of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy
St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of
Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of
Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,-
Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3
Wit!in t!e bor"er re'ion1 lac* o# data comparability and "ata s!arin' have long been
challenges that !in"er transboun"ar) cooperation. Scienti2c *no%le"'e about
'roun"%ater a.ui#ers is particularly sparse. %he :.1.D Me(ico surface &ater treaty of 4,!! and the
commission structure to enforce it created institutions for &ater $uantity allocation and &ater-$uality monitoring.
ransboun"ar) 'roun"%ater, by contrast, !as pro$e" more "i9cult to 'o$ern
(7eitelson 2E". An e&er'in' initiati$e1 t!e U(S(,Mexico %ransboundary #$uifer #ssessment
Program (AA;", see*s to o$erco&e these institutional an" %ater-resource
c!allen'es t!rou'! binational collaboration. #uthori?ed by :.1. federal la& and funded by
annual budget appropriations, AA; is i&ple&ente" b) t!e U(S( <eolo'ical Sur$e)
an" t!e state %ater resources researc! institutes o# Ari5ona1 =e% Mexico1
an" exas1 %it! collaboration #ro& Mexican #e"eral1 state1 an" local
counterparts as %ell as IBWC an" CILA( !ree essential steps c!aracteri5e
AA;> ?1@ building shared vision through /oint settin' o# ob/ecti$es an" prioriti5e"
outco&es, a process based on learning among boundary people- ?7@ scienti2c assess&ent o#
ground&ater resources- an" ?3@ "ual a"apti$e-&ana'e&ent strate'ies that conform
to eac! countr):s institutional en$iron&ent %!ile expan"in' binational
in#or&ation Ao%s an" "ata exc!an'e. O$er AA;:s brie# li#eti&e1 &utuall)
"e2ne" priorities #or Ari5ona:s an" Sonora:s co&&on 1anta 2ru? and 1an Pedro
a.ui#ers !a$e been i"enti2e" as $e!icles #or %ater #or 'ro%t!1 a"aptation
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to cli&ate c!an'e1 local a.ui#er-rec!ar'e pro'ra&s1 an" institutional
assess&ent o# 'roun"%ater &ana'e&ent as)&&etries. %hese priorities re>ect
ful@llment of t&o of the e3ective kno&ledge transmission criteria identi@ed by 2ash et al. (2F", as both salience
(relevance of information shared" and credibility (scienti@c ade$uacy of the information" appear to be fully satis@ed
by %##P processes for data sharing. It is explicitl) reco'ni5e" t!at binational a.ui#er
assess&ent %ill support eac! nation:s &ana'e&ent o# its s!are of
transboundary a$uifers. .ne implication is that &ater $uality has received diminished attention, given that,
upstream, Me(ico considered it disadvantageous to identify sources of ground&ater pollution. #dditionally, %##P
takes a regional approach by emphasi?ing a$uifer-level priority setting and assessment that account for di3erences
bet&een participating states on the :.1. side. +o&ever, the principal boundary obAect in this case (the physical
a$uifer spanning the border" is not subAect to a shared learning approach to management as a result of contrasting
la&s and regulations for ground&ater in the :nited 1tates and Me(ico. S!arin' o# in#or&ation-both as
inputs to the scienti@c assessments and outputs from binational activities'is a critical social-learnin'
#eature of %##P t!at con#ers it a"apti$e potentialB !o%e$er1 &uc! !as )et to
be reali5e". # negotiation process is under&ay &ithin the 50W2G25H# umbrella, leading to a binational
agreement to identify a$uifers for assessment, permit e(change of information, initiate assessment activities, and
disseminate results. 5n the :nited 1tates, &here ground&ater is managed and regulated by state and local entities,
a >e(ible mechanism &as sought for direct cross-border collaboration &ith homologue entities. 5n Me(ico, by
contrast, federal authority regulates ground&ater, and as a result of this asymmetry, agreement &as sought &ithin
the 50W2G25H# frame&ork. .perating &ithin this institutional arrangement &ill present challenges for some %##P
stakeholders &ho are accustomed to pursuing &ater resources and institutional analyses unfettered by a
commission structure and the need to revie& results prior to dissemination. <evertheless, %##P is already
generating successful, binational e(amples of e(change of transboundary a$uifer information- for 1anta 2ru?, a
bilingual database of e(isting studies and reports has been created, and a similar one is in development for 1an
Pedro. o "ate1 users !a$e been ot!er sta*e!ol"ers "irectl) en'a'e" in t!e
AA; processB a $ersion #or public, Web-based release is planne" #or t!e near
Co%e$er in recent )ears t!e Unite" States cease" #un"in' t!e
pro/ect , lea$in' it up to Mexico(
Margaret Wil"er et al( 13, #ssociate Professor, 2enter for Hatin #merican
1tudies, )regg )ar@n (:niversity of #ri?ona", Paul )anster (5nstitute for Begional
1tudies of the 2alifornias, 1an ;iego 1tate :niversity", +allie Cakin (#ri?ona 1tate
:niversity", Patricia Bomero-Hankao (<2#B", 7rancisco Hara-*alencia (#ri?ona 1tate
:niversity", #lfonso #. 2orte?-Hara (2olegio de la 7rontera <orte", 1tephen Mumme
(2olorado 1tate :niversity", 2arolina <eri (<ational #utonomous :niversity of
Me(ico", 7rancisco MuIo?-#rriola (1cripps 5nstitution of .ceanography" 2limate
2hange and :.1.-Me(ico 0order 2ommunities page F94
JhttpKGGs&carr.ari?ona.eduGsitesGdefaultG@lesG#221W:1L2h4E.pdfM C+7
%rans-border ;ata 1haring. %he :.1.-Me(ico %ransboundary #$uifer #ssessment
Program (%##P", authori?ed by :.1. federal la& and supported institutionally and
@nancially by both the :.1. and Me(ico, is a successful binational program focused
on the assessment of shared a$uifers. #lthough the :nited 1tates did not
appropriate funds for %##P in @scal year 244G242, during this period the Me(ican
government began funding assessment activities on its side of the border. %##P is
implemented by the :.1. )eological 1urvey and the state &ater resources research
institutes of #ri?ona, <e& Me(ico, and %e(as, &ith collaboration from Me(ican
federal, state, and local counterparts, as &ell as 50W2 and 25H#. %&o central aims of
%##P include the scienti@c assessment of shared ground&ater resources- and
development of dual adaptive-management strategies through e(panded binational
information >o&s and data e(change (Wilder et al. 24- Megdal and 1cott 244".
Mutually de@ned priorities for #ri?ona/s and 1onora/s common 1anta 2ru? and 1an
Pedro a$uifers, for e(ample, are meeting human and ecosystem &ater re$uirements
in the conte(t of gro&th and climate change (1cott et al. 242". %##P is a model of
successful trans-border cooperation in data sharing and assessment that supports
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&ater-management decision-making in both countries and enhances the adaptive
capacity of the region in the face of climate change.
!is !as &a"e it i&possible to construct re'ional "ata bases
an" "ata s!arin' pro/ects(
Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady,
Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy
% of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy
St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of
Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of
Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,-
Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3
Water &ana'e&ent in t!e bor"er re'ion is #ra'&ente" an" co&plex %it!
"isparate c!aracteristics in t!e t%o countries. %he geopolitical relationship bet&een the
:nited 1tates and Me(ico complicates cooperation and agreement on &ater management. 7or e(ample, :.1.
immigration control or drug-tra=cking policies often are made &ith little consultation &ith Me(ico and e(acerbate
the geopolitical conte(t &ithin &hich binational &ater resources issues are considered. E$en ot!er%ise
unco&plicate" tas*s suc! as constructin' a re'ional "atabase are more
"i9cult in t!is re'ion1 %!ic! lac*s comparable "ata an" a history of s!arin' such
in#or&ation (2omrie 2F". .ver the past century, t!e t%o national governments !a$e
establis!e" several /oint institutions #or &ana'in' transboun"ar) %aters-
suc! as t!e International Boun"ar) an" Water Co&&ission (50W2" an" its
Mexican counterpart1 CILA- the Ha Pa? %reaty of 4,6F- an" t!e post-=A0A Bor"er
En$iron&ent Cooperation Co&&ission-but t!ese institutions !a$e onl) a
narro% ran'e o# responsibilit)1 &uc! o# it in$ol$in' in#rastructure
construction (*arady and Ward 2,".
!e A"$anta'e is Cli&ate A"aptation
0irst %ar&in' %ill soon be irre$ersible , ice s!eet loss1 A&a5on
tree "eat!s1 an" per&a#rost(
C!estne) in 17 (<ina- sta3 &riter for Beuters ne&s service citing Will 1te3en,
e(ecutive director of the #ustralian <ational :niversityNs climate change institute-
O)lobal &arming close to becoming irreversibleK scientists,P Reuters-
0or ice s!eets - huge refrigerators that slo& do&n the &arming of the planet - t!e
tippin' point !as probably alrea") been passe", 1te3en said. !e West
Antarctic ice s!eet !as s!run* over the last decade an" t!e <reenlan" ice
s!eet !as lost around 2 cubic km (DF cubic &iles@ a )ear since t!e 1GG+s(
Most cli&ate esti&ates a'ree t!e A&a5on rainforest %ill 'et "rier as t!e
planet %ar&s. Mass tree "eat!s caused by drought !a$e raise" #ears it is on
t!e $er'e o# a tippin' point1 %!en it %ill stop absorbin' e&issions an" a""
to t!e& instea". Aroun" 1(H billion tonnes o# carbon %ere lost in 7++I from
the rainforest an" 7(7 billion tonnes in 7+1+1 %!ic! !as un"one about 1+
)ears o# carbon sin* acti$it), 1te3en said. .ne of t!e &ost %orr)in' an"
un*no%n t!res!ol"s is t!e Siberian per&a#rost1 %!ic! stores #ro5en
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carbon in t!e soil a&ay from the atmosphere. J!ere is about 11H++ billion
tonnes o# carbon t!ere - about t%ice t!e a&ount in t!e at&osp!ere today -
and the northern high latitudes are experiencin' t!e &ost se$ere te&perature
c!an'e o# an) part o# t!e planet,S he said.
E$en i# %e be'in re$ersin' t!e process ti&e la's bet%een
e&issions an" cli&ate i&pacts &ean cli&actic c!an'e
%ill be %it! us #or "eca"es alterin' %ater c)cles1 ti&in'1
an" .ualit) %!ile "ecreasin' suppl)(
Coole) in 17 (+eather- 2o-;irector of the Paci@c 5nstitute/s Water Program and
M1 in Cnergy and Besources T 0erkeley- OWater and 2limate,P A Twenty-First
Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet 2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p."
5n addition to a &ide range of old, unresolved &ater challenges facing the nation and federal &ater policy makers,
several ne& threats are emerging, especially the gro&ing conse$uences for &ater resources and developed &ater
systems from a rapidly changing climate. 8isin' 'reen!ouse 'as concentrations #ro&
!u&an acti$ities are causin' lar'e-scale c!an'es to t!e Eart!Ks cli&ate(
Because o# a ti&e la' bet%een greenhouse gas e&issions an" cli&ate i&pacts, &e
kno& that t!ese c!an'es %ill continue e$en i# %e stop e&ittin' greenhouse gases
to"a). <i$en our econo&ic "epen"ence on #ossil #uels an" t!e "i9cult
political issues associate" %it! e&issions-re"uction strategies, it no& appears
ine$itable t!at si'ni2cant cli&atic c!an'es %ill continue to intensify o$er t!e
next se$eral "eca"es. 0ecause the &ater cycle and the climate cycle are ine(tricably linked, these
changes &ill have maAor implications for our nationNs &ater resources. %he movement of &ater is the primary
process by &hich energy is redistributed around the planet. #s temperatures rise, the >o&s of &ater in the
hydrologic cycle &ill accelerate. 5n short, cli&ate c!an'e %ill intensi#) t!e %ater c)cle1
alterin' %ater a$ailabilit)1 ti&in'1 .ualit)1 an" "e&an". 5ndeed, all of the &a/or
international an" national assess&ents o# cli&ate c!an'es !a$e conclu"e"
t!at #res!%ater s)ste&s are a&on' t!e &ost $ulnerable sectors of society
(2ompagnucci et al. 24- 1C) 2Q- Kund?e&ic? et al. 2Q- 0ates et al. 26". #n 5ntergovernmental Panel on
2limate 2hange (5P22" technical report on fresh&ater resources released in 26 concludes &ith a very high
con@dence that Sclimate change &ill constrain <orth #mericaNs already overallocated &ater resources, thereby
increasing competition among agricultural, municipal, industrial, and ecological usesS (0ates et al. 26, 42".
Si&ultaneous population 'ro%t! on t!e bor"er re'ion
exacerbates t!ese co&in' s!orta'es(
Witte an" E"en in 17
0ecky and 1usanna- O0order Water 1ource of 2on>ict and 2ooperationP Arroyo;
Water Besources Besearch 2enter D : of #ri?ona-
<ro%in' population couple" %it! increasin' %ater "e&an" is a &a/or
issue #or &an) U(S( an" Mexican cities. Durin' t!e past 7+ )ears1 urban
populations alon' t!e bor"er !a$e si'ni2cantl) increase". In 7+1+1 1D
&illion people li$e" in t!e bor"er re'ion, and proAections sho& continuing population gro&th.
B) the year 7+7+, an a""itional estimated D(H &illion people &ill live in the border region,
increasin' b) an a""itional G(3 &illion b) 7+3+. %his 'ro%t! lar'el) be'an in
4,E9 %it! t!e initiation o# t!e &a.uila"ora pro'ra&, %!ic! create"
incenti$es #or foreign assembly plants to locate in the border region. #fter the <orth #merican 7ree %rade
#greement &as put into e3ect in 4,,!, industrial development, especially in Me(ico, rapidly gre&. Harge-scale
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mining and agriculture also prospered in the areaK in"ustries t!at re.uire lar'e $olu&es o#
%ater. Cconomic gro&th and Aob creation &ere positive results of these ne& developments, but
in#rastructure in t!e re'ion %as not consistently up"ate" to *eep pace %it! the
population boom. %his straine" resources an" create" !a5ar"s #or t!e
en$iron&ent an" public !ealt! on bot! si"es o# t!e bor"er.
!us t!e plan> !e Unite" States #e"eral 'o$ern&ent s!oul"
&a*e a$ailable all necessar) resources to expan" cli&ate
!)"rolo'ical "ata collection an" s!arin' %it! t!e
'o$ern&ent o# Mexico(
Contention %o is Sol$enc)
Data collection is an inte'ral part o# an) %ater &ana'e&ent
s)ste& un#ortunatel) status .uo eforts !a$e been
piece&eal an" lac* t!e necessar) #un"in' an" support(
Data is o#ten not s!are"( 0e"eral action &an"atin' an"
supportin' %i"esprea" "ata collection an" s!arin'
sol$es a"apti$e %ater &ana'e&ent(
Coole) in 17 (+eather- 2o-;irector of the Paci@c 5nstitute/s Water Program and
M1 in Cnergy and Besources T 0erkeley- OWater and 2limate,P A Twenty-First
Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet 2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p."
Water &ana'ers and farmers across t!e Unite" States alrea") i&ple&ent a
$ariet) o# tec!nolo'ies an" practices to a"apt to current cli&ate- an"
%eat!er-relate" ris*s. 7or e(ample, &ater managers implement &ater-conservation and -e=ciency
measures to reduce demand, thereby reducing vulnerability to &ater supply constraints. 7armers shift the timing
and types of crops gro&n according to seasonal &eather forecasts. !ou'! it is i&portant to buil"
on these tra"itional ris* &iti'ation &easures1 %e cannot assu&e t!at
existin' approac!es are su9cient to a"apt to #uture cli&ate con"itions(
Action is nee"e" no%( #s noted by Bobert Bepetto, Jsa)in' t!at t!e U(S( can a"apt
"oes not i&pl) t!at it %ill a"apt1 at least not in t!e e9cient an" ti&el)
%a) nee"e" i# &a/or "a&a'es are to be a$oi"e"J (26, 2". !e Unite" States
&ust beco&e a 'lobal lea"er in s&art preparation an" a"aptation to
cli&ate c!an'e. #fter years of inaction, the federal government is slo&ly moving in this direction. 5n the
follo&ing section, &e provide recommendations on ho& to e(pand and accelerate these e3orts. !e lac* o#
lon'-ter& "ata sets !a&pers our abilit) to un"erstan" cli&ate c!an'e
i&pacts on %ater resources an" "e$elop appropriate adaptation strate'ies. #s
noted by Hettenmaier et al. (26", Jobser$ations are critical to un"erstan"in' t!e
nature o# past !)"rolo'ic c!an'es an" #or interpretin' t!e pro/ections o#
potential efects on #uture c!an'esJ (4!E". With fe& e(ceptions, ho&ever, "ata on %ater
resources are ina"e.uate( Lon'-ter& scienti2c obser$ations are nee"e" to
un"erstan" Eart!Ks s)ste& processes an" "e$elop an" test &o"els. # recent
<overnment Accountability O=ce anal)sis #oun" that #e"eral resource &ana'ers
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lac*e" a"e.uate "ata an" in#or&ation Jto plan #or an" &ana'e t!e efects
o# cli&ate c!an'e on the federal resources they manageS ()#. 2Q, SWhat )#. 7oundS".
Measure&ent an" &onitorin' o# our nationNs %ater resource is critical for
management of this precious resource. %he :1 )eological 1urvey (US<S@ is responsible #or
collectin'1 anal)5in'1 an" "istributin' "ata on %ater availability and use. %hese data
include stream >o& information from Q, national stream gauges, E ground&ater monitoring &ells, and state
data on &ater use to create national &ater-use estimates. Data collection acti$ities, ho&ever, !a$e
been se$erel) un"er#un"e"( Strea& Ao% 'au'es "esi'ne" to &onitor
response to lon'-ter& cli&ate $ariabilit) an" c!an'e are un"er#un"e" an"
!a$e "ecline" b) 7I percent since t!e late 4,H+s (@gure 4.2". E$en less
in#or&ation is a$ailable on ot!er %ater resource co&ponents, especially
ground&ater and &ater use. <ational &ater-use data are only collected every @ve years and are not provided in a
timely manner due to limited sta=ng and budgetary constraints. %he 29 data, for e(ample, &as not released until
late .ctober 2,. 5n order to understand the potential impacts of climate change and plan adaptation e3orts, t!e
#e"eral 'o$ern&ent &ust ensure t!at t!e US<S !as su9cient resources to
collect an" &aintain lon'-ter& "ata on *e) c!aracteristics o# %ater
resources1 inclu"in' strea& Ao%1 'roun"%ater le$els1 %ater .ualit)1 an"
%ater use. %he 1ecure Water #ct in 2, calls for a <ational Water 2ensus and increased funding for the :1)1
stream gauge net&ork, &hich is an important step for&ard. 7ull appropriations, ho&ever, have not been provided.
2ongress must ensure that the <ational Water 2ensus and the monitoring net&orks receive full funding.
8ele$ant cli&ate "ata1 in#or&ation1 pro"ucts1 an" ser$ices are not %i"el)
a$ailable or easil) accessible( %his may be changing. %he 2onsolidated #ppropriations #ct of 24
directed the <ational #cademy of Public #dministration to e(plore options for a <ational .ceanic and #tmospheric
#dministration (<.##" climate service. 5n 7ebruary 24, <.## and the ;epartment of 2ommerce announced their
intent to establish the <ational 2limate 1ervice, &hich &ould be designed to provide climate data, products, and
services to @sheries managers, farmers, state governments, &ater managers, and other users. # more detailed
report outlining the vision, mission, and strategic plan for the <ational 2limate 1ervice &as released in 1eptember
24 (<.## 24". 5n 7ebruary 244, President .bama released a budget re$uest that &ould fund the <ational
2limate 1ervice. Con'ress s!oul" ensure t!at t!is re.uest is appro$e" so t!at
#e"eral a'encies1 inclu"in' =OAA1 Cnvironmental Protection #gency (E;A", Ar&) Corps
o# En'ineers1 =ational 8esources Conser$ation Ser$ice1 an" US<S1 can
expan" an" coor"inate t!e ran'e o# cli&ate ser$ices a$ailable. Alt!ou'!
cli&ate c!an'e is a 'lobal proble&1 its i&pacts are local. #ccordingly, detailed
assessments of climate change risks re$uire thorough analysis at local and regional scales. Whereas climate change
impact studies have been done in some areas, such as 2alifornia and Washington, good assessments are lacking in
others. #dditional analysis is needed at the regional level to better understand climate change impacts.
Wit!out si'ni2cant in$est&ent to 'enerate t!e in#or&ation nee"e" to
un"erstan" pro/ecte" i&pacts1 cli&ate c!an'e %ill re&ain a $a'ue an"
un%iel") t!reat( !e #e"eral 'o$ern&ent &ust ta*e an acti$e role in
coor"inatin' an" catalo'uin' i&pact an" $ulnerabilit) assess&ents to
ensure t!at all re'ions are 'i$en a"e.uate attention. #dditionally, the federal
government must &ork directly &ith local &ater managers to ensure that the information generated by these
assessments is disseminated &idely. J296-2EM
!e a9r&ati$e 2lls necessar) 'aps in "ata collection , status
.uo &o"els "o not al%a)s ta*e cli&ate c!an'e into
account , alterin' it to !a$e lon' ter& "ata sets an"
pre"icti$e &o"els is *e) to a"aptation(
Coole) in 17 (+eather- 2o-;irector of the Paci@c 5nstitute/s Water Program and
M1 in Cnergy and Besources T 0erkeley- OWater and 2limate,P A Twenty-First
Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet 2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p."
!e efects o# cli&ate c!an'e on %ater "e&an" are #ar less stu"ie" than
are the impacts on hydrology. 5ndeed, the 2limate 2hange 1cience Program report
fails to mention impacts on &ater demand. .verall, ho&ever, "e&an"s #or %ater
BeBo Lab Water Af
in so&e sectors are sensiti$e to cli&ate1 particularl) a'riculture an" urban
lan"scapes1 an" are li*el) to increase( ;lants typically re.uire &ore %ater
as te&peratures rise, although higher atmospheric carbon dio(ide concentrations
can reduce &ater re$uirements under some conditions. Because a'riculture
accounts #or about H+ percent o# %ater use in t!e Unite" States (Kenny et al.
2,",4 "e&an" c!an'es in t!is sector &a) !a$e broa" i&plications. In
some urban areas1 la%ns an" other out"oor uses are &a/or consu&ers o#
%ater1 accountin' #or up to O+ percent o# total resi"ential %ater use in
so&e !ot1 "r) areas1 an" t!ese "e&an"s %oul" increase un"er !otter
te&peratures( War&er te&peratures %ill also increase t!e a&ount o#
%ater nee"e" #or coolin' s)ste&s. More researc! is nee"e" on t!ese kinds
of cli&ate-sensiti$e "e&an"s, on a regional basis.
!e a9r&ati$e is a no-re'rets polic) #or cli&ate a"aptation ,
e$en i# it pro$es insu9cient or unnecessar) in so&e
scenarios it still bene2ts t!e US 'enerall) in e9cienc)
an" econo&ics an" causes a s!i#t to proacti$e polic)
Coole) in 17 (+eather- 2o-;irector of the Paci@c 5nstitute/s Water Program and
M1 in Cnergy and Besources T 0erkeley- OWater and 2limate,P A Twenty-First
Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet 2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p."
1ome degree of cli&ate c!an'e is no& una$oi"able an" all re'ions an"
sectors are $ulnerable to cli&ate c!an'e i&pacts to varying degrees. %hus,
a"aptation &ust be a central ele&ent o# cli&ate change polic). %he 5P22
(2Q" de@nes adaptation as Sinitiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of
natural and human systems against actual and e(pected climate change e3ectsS
(QE". !ere is a &ide $ariet) o# a"aptation options for the various &ater
management activities (table 4.4", ran'in' #ro& buil"in' or e(panding reservoir
capacit) to i&pro$in' %ater-use e9cienc). !ese a"aptation acti$ities can
ta*e &an) #or&s- for e(ample, they can be'proacti$e or reacti$e1 structural
or nonstructural1 supply-side or demand-side, and more. # recent 5P22 report
notes that Jtra"itions an" institutions in =ort! A&erica !a$e encoura'e" a
"ecentralise" response #ra&e%or* %!ere a"aptation ten"s to be reacti$e,
unevenly distributed, and #ocuse" on copin' %it! rat!er t!an pre$entin'
proble&sJ (0ates et al. 26, 4!". %hus, "e$elopin' a proacti$e a"aptation
strate') %ill very likely re.uire t!e Unite" States to c!art a ne% course.2
8i'i"1 expensi$e1 an" irre$ersible actions can increase $ulnerabilit) to
cli&ate c!an'e an" ulti&atel) t!e lon'-ter& costs (see follo&ing section".
<i$en t!e uncertaint) associate" %it! cli&ate c!an'e1 planners s!oul"
support those policies that provide social, economic, and environmental bene@ts,
regardless of climate change impacts'referred to as Sno regretS policies. #n
analysis of impacts and adaptation for the &ater sector in 2anada, for e(ample,
identi@es several no-re'ret a"aptation options1 inclu"in' 'reater e&p!asis
on %ater conser$ation, i&pro$e" %eat!er-&onitorin' eforts1 an" better
plannin' an" prepare"ness for >oods and droughts (Hemmen and Warren 2!".
W!ile the a$ailable no-regret options &a) not be su9cient to a""ress t!e
#ull ran'e o# cli&ate c!an'e i&pacts, t!ese options s!oul" be 'i$en
priorit). J29E-29QM
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Last1 it:s a tr) or "ie #or t!e af , e$en i# t!e ne'ati$e %ins
so&e sol$enc) "e2cits t!e ine$itabilit) o# cli&ate
c!an'e:s efect on !)"roc)cles &eans an) &o$e to%ar"
proacti$e response is better t!an not!in'(
Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady,
Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy
% of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy
St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of
Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of
Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,-
Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3
<evertheless, &e @nd that t&o of the three initiatives discussed hold promising adaptive potential. !ese
strate'ies, if pursued, coul" increase social learnin' a&on' urban %ater
&ana'ers1 e&er'enc)-prepare"ness planners1 an" coastal-resources
planners. 0oth formal and informal net%or*s are being a"$ance" t!rou'! sustaine" an"
iterati$e interactions a&on' "iferent resource &ana'ers &ithin the #ri?onaD1onora
region, facilitated both by boundary people (e.g., the research team and local stakeholders in each site &ho plan
and facilitate meetings" and by boundary obAects (e.g., the &orkshops and the binational climate summary".
Wor*in' to'et!er to pro"uce an" re2ne t!e binational cli&ate su&&ar)
%it! a re'ional #ocus on a s!are" cli&ate re'i&e (e.g., the monsoon" illustrates
t!e copro"uction o# scienti2c *no%le"'e t!at can inAuence polic) %it!in
t!e re'ion an" encoura'e &ore sustainable plannin'. 5n the end, ne%
co&&unities o# practice &i'!t e&er'e t!at institutionali5e re'ional
cli&ate science an" 3cli&atic t!in*in'4 into their current an" #uture %ater
&ana'e&ent practices, s!are institutional "ata &ithin the community, an" are committed to
collaboration. Mo$in' be)on" the entrenc!e" patterns o# "i$isi$e and bounded
"ealin's on %ater management &i'!t increase re'ional resilience an" ofer
communities &ore capacit) to #ace loo&in' c!an'es. !e obstacles associate"
%it! transboun"ar) en'a'e&ent are steep but t!e conse.uences o#
noncooperation are "ire. ransboun"ar) scientist,sta*e!ol"er collaboration
&i'!t !ol" t!e *e) to con#rontin' cli&ate c!an'e in $ulnerable
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JDI13 11
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NWater S!orta'eL
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Bor"er populations are con#ronte" %it! "ouble exposure to
%ater s!orta'e t!rou'! cli&ate c!an'e an"
"isplace&ent #ro& in"ustriali5ation pro/ects(
Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady,
Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy
% of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy
St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of
Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of
Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,-
Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3
!e U(S(,Mexico bor"er re'ion'as a $ulnerable area un"er'oin'
urbani5ation1 in"ustriali5ation1 an" a'ricultural intensi2cation-is a
textboo* case of 3"ouble exposure4 (Heichenko and ./0rien 26" to cli&atic an"
'lobali5ation processes (Hiverman and Merideth 22- Bay et al. 2Q". !e U(S( Sout!%est
an" nort!%est Mexico1 %!ere 'lobal cli&ate &o"els pro/ect se$ere
precipitation "ecreases an" te&perature increases1 !as been calle" 3t!e
#ront line o# on'oin' cli&ate c!an'e4 (+arrison 2,, 4- see 7igure 4". Anticipate"
probable i&pacts inclu"e longer, more extre&e "rou'!ts1 !i'!er %ater an" ener')
"e&an"1 "ecrease" inAo%s to ri$ers an" strea&s1 an" increase" urban,
a'ricultural conAict o$er %ater (5ntergovernmental Panel on 2limate 2hange 2Q- 1eager et al.
2Q". 1ince the 4,6s, t!e bor"er re'ion !as 'ro%n #aster t!an eac! countr):s
national a$era'e. 5n the :nited 1tates, an e(panding leisure class of retirees, seasonal tourists, and other
Oamenity seekersP are in>uencing &ater management decisions about consumption and conservation. In
Mexico1 rapi" urban 'ro%t!1 driven by availability of Aobs created by hundreds of foreign o&ned
ma$uiladoras, !as s!i#te" %ater-use priorities a%a) #ro& t!e past #ar&in' an"
ranc!in' econo&). #lthough agriculture remains the largest user of &ater in Ari5ona (Q percent of
total demand- #ri?ona ;epartment of Water Besources 2," an" Sonora (6E percent of consumptive use-
2omisiUon <acional del #gua 26", 'ro%t! patterns are "ri$in' a s!i#t o# %ater to
urban areas. In Mexico:s nort!%est1 one .uarter o# a.ui#ers are se$erel)
o$er"ra#te". 5n 1onora ,9 percent of the population has potable &ater supply and 6! percent has se&erage
service (2omisiUon <acional del#gua 26".Many households that have hookups e(perience daily interruptions to
&ater service, ho&ever, and tap &ater is generally not of drinking $uality.
Efecti$e institutional response to cli&ate "ata is *e) to
resol$e %ater s!orta'es on poor an" rural bor"er
Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady,
Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy
% of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy
St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of
Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of
Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,-
Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3
Pulnerabilit) is con"itione" b) socioeconomic, institutional, and political as &ell as environmental
factors, including climate (#dger et al. 2E". #ssessing vulnerability re$uires consideration not only of
exposure to cli&ate c!an'e but also of t!e ris* associate" %it! t!at exposure
an" t!e capacit) o# an in"i$i"ual1 co&&unit)1 or nation to a"apt to impacts of
JDI13 13
BeBo Lab Water Af
climate change (#dger et al. 2E". *ulnerability in the border region/s &ater sector is thus a #unction o#
intensi2e" socioecono&ic processes'rapid gro&th, accelerated globali?ation'an"
en$iron&ental c!an'e. 1ocioeconomic vulnerability is also con"itione" b) a'e1
et!nicit)1 'en"er1 or class. 7or e(ample, elderly people and #frican #mericans in poor neighborhoods
&ere most at risk to the devastation of +urricane Katrina (*erchick 26". In t!e bor"er re'ion1 the
!i'! concentration of +ispanics, especially in poor U(S( counties an" in unplanne"
Mexican colonias1 increases $ulnerabilit) #or t!ese populations. ;eople
&i'!t be at !i'!er ris* to "rou'!t i# %ater beco&es scarce and therefore more
e(pensive, if they lack su=cient resources to access or purchase nontraditional &ater sources. #fter storms, &ater
trucks (pipas" that service marginal neighborhoods might not have access to homes via >ooded streets. !e
re'ion:s capacit) to respon" to t!ese an" ot!er !i'!-$ulnerabililt) %ater-
relate" c!allen'es "epen"s lar'el) on its %ater &ana'e&ent institutions(
Water insecurity is a form of structural violence at the
root of gender, po&er and economic oppression -
8eremy Allouc!e 7+1+ 5nstitute of ;evelopment 1tudies %he sustainability and
resilience of global &ater and food systemsK Political analysis of the interplay
bet&een security, resource scarcity, political systems and global trade $ 7ood Policy
Aournal homepageK &&&.elsevier.comGlocateGfoodpol
What about the futureV 5t is clear that &ater and food management &ill face maAor
challenges due to increasing uncertainties caused by climate change and fast
changing socio-economic boundary conditions. +ydro meteorological records and
climate change scenarios provide evidence that &ater resources are vulnerable &ith
strong conse$uences for human security. 7ive hundred million people &orld&ide
currently live in countries &here supply is chronically short- the 5ntergovernmental
Panel on 2limate 2hange (5P22" predicts these numbers &ill rise as climate change
a3ects surface &ater levels that depend on rainfall and glacial melting (0ates et al.,
26". +eat&aves and &ater shortages &ill have an adverse impact on safe drinking
&ater and sanitation, &ith disproportionate e3ects on the poorest and most
vulnerable. #ccording to studies by the 7einstein 5nternational 2enter, the number
of people a3ected globally by natural disasters (including droughts and >oods" has
been increasing steadily, by an estimated 9,DE, people per decade, since
the early 4,Qs. %he number of reported disasters has also increased year on year,
from an average annual total of , in the 4,Qs, to a @gure close to !9 per year in
the present decade. %he data and proAections by the 7einstein 5nternational center
suggest a 2W increase in e(treme event fre$uency (Mackinnon et al., 2,". 5n
relation to the &aterDfood ne(us, as climate temperature e(tremes are predicted to
increase in fre$uency and intensity in future, droughts and >oods may become
more severe and more fre$uent and this could potentially dramatically reduce crop
yields and livestock numbers and productivity especially in semiarid areas. %his
means that the poorest regions &ith high levels of chronic undernourishment &ill
also be e(posed to the highest degree of instability in food production. 2limate
change may a3ect food systems in several &ays ranging from direct e3ects on crop
production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to droughtG>ooding or &armerGcooler
temperatures leading to changes in the length of gro&ing season" to changes in
markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. Most studies found that
climate change &ill have a highly negative impact for developing countries in terms
of crop productivity and increase risk of hunger, especially in 1ub-1aharan #frica.
(Bosegrant and 2line, 2F". Most of the research up to no& has been on the bio-
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physical aspects of production (land suitability, crop yields, pest regimes D )regory
et al., 4,,,". %he possible impact of climate change on food accessibility and
utili?ation has been neglected. Becent research by )regory et al. (29" and
1chmidhuber and %ubiello %his article has provided an overvie& of the current and
future challenges in terms of global food and &ater systems. %he maAor focus of the
argument has been on ho& resource scarcity is a contested and subAective concept
&hich cannot fully e(plain con>ict, political instability or food insecurity. %he politics
of ine$uality and allocation are much more important variables in e(plaining &ater
and food insecurity. %his is particularly true for con>icts. #lthough resource scarcity
has been linked to international &ars, the current data sho&s that most con>ict over
&ater and food are much more local. 0ut there again, although resource scarcity
can be linked to malnutrition, hunger and &ater insecurity, in the maAority of cases,
&ater and food insecurity are rarely about competition over resources but rather
re>ect the politics of allocation and ine$uality. 5n this respect, &ar and con>icts
aggravate these insecurities not Aust on the short term but also on the long term. #t
the global level, food security has considerably improved and provides the means to
address these insecurities. %rade can certainly be seen as a &ay to address access
for countries that are under severe stress in terms of food and &ater and provides
logical grounds for $uestioning the various &ater and food &ars scenarios. #lthough
global trade and technological innovation are key drivers in providing stable and
resilient global systems, the most destabili?ing global &ater-related threat is
increasing food prices and hunger. .verall, decision-makers should sho& greater
concern for the human beings &ho make their living in agriculture, so that those at
risk of livelihood and food-security failures, especially under anticipated scenarios of
climate change, &ill be less deprived. 2urrent debates linked to global food security
and climate fail to address the political dimension of resource scarcity &hich is
primarily linked to the politics of ine$uality, gender and po&er.
More "eat!s #ro& structural t!an &ost %ars co&bine" ,
lar'est cause o# "eat! internationall)(
0isc!er an" Brauer in 3
;ietrich and 8urgen- %WC<%X R:C1%5.<1 7.B PC#2C C2.<.M521K # BC1C#B2+
#)C<;#- ;efence and Peace Cconomics, 4!QE-62EQ, *olume 4!, 5ssue F, 2F,
Pages 22F D 2FE- httpKGG&&&.aug.eduGYsbaAmbGpaper-;PC;780.P;7
;o$ert) an" !i'! une&plo)&ent1 especiall) in t!e presence o#
conspicuous %ealt!1 contribute to #rustration1 social unrest1 an"
so&eti&es ci$il %ar. 5t is easy to design an economy that produces lu(uries
for a fe&. 7ar more challenging is to design an economic system that satis@es the
human needs for food, clothing, homes, education, and medical care of all. What
are the characteristics of such an economyV What obstacles prevent it from
emerging, and ho& can they be overcomeV )altung coined the notion of
3structural $iolence4 (as opposed to direct violence" for social con"itions
t!at cause a$oi"able !u&an suferin' an" "eat!1 e$en i# t!ere is no
speci2c actor co&&ittin' t!e $iolence. Kohler and #lcock (4,QE" have
estimated that structural $iolence causes about one !un"re" ti&es as
&an) "eat!s eac! )ear as all international an" ci$il %ars co&bine"( It
is as i# o$er 7++ Ciros!i&a bo&bs %ere "roppe" eac! )ear on the
children of the &orld, but t!e &e"ia #ail to report it because it is less
JDI13 1I
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"ra&atic t!an a bo&b explosion( +o& can &e estimate the loss of life
resulting from poverty and une$ual income distributionV +o& can &e reduce itV
Water Shortages Cause Global Destabilization
<leic* 17
httpKGG&&&.hu=ngtonpost.comGpeter-h-gleickGtime-for-a-24st-century-uLbL4,2FEQ.html O%ime for a 24st 2entury
:.1. Water PolicyP
Water-relate" proble&s also t!reaten our national securit)( In our 'loball)
inte'rate" econo&)1 %ater proble&s in ot!er countries re$erberate bac*
!o&e( ;olitical insecurit) an" instabilit) is 'ro%in' in regions %!ere access to
#res!%ater is a proble&, including especiall) in =ort! A#rica1 t!e Mi""le East1
an" Sout! Asia, &ith gro&ing concerns about tensions in the central #sian republics. Less
pre"ictable !ot spots are also li*el) to appear an" there are 'ro%in' reports
o# $iolence an" political "isruption o$er %ater s!orta'es( in parts of #frica. Just
t!is &ont! t!e BBC reporte" t!at o$er 1++ people !a$e "ie" in conAicts
bet&een farmers and cattle herders o$er land and %ater in Qen)a. 0ecause conAicts o$er
%ater contribute to broa"er political tensions an" conAicts, diplomatic e3orts to
reduce the risks of con>ict must no& include an environmental component. 7urthermore, military preparedness
should include an improved understanding and analysis of the threats associated &ith &ater.
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A.ui#er Collapse
;ollution1 an" saline %ill cause %alls in a.ui#er to collapse-
Wit!out 3e.uitable an" reasonable use4 transboun"ar)
a.ui#ers %ill be &is&ana'e" causin' proble&s(
Broo*s1 13- International Institute for Sustainable Development, Canada
David, Discussion Paper 1325 Governance of transboundary auifers! "e#
c$allen%es and ne# opportunities&
'e%ardless of #$et$er t$e focus is transboundary surface or %round #ater, it is
critical t$e %overnin% principle of euitable and reasonable use& of #ater is
accepted by all co(basin states) *$is is of course more easily said t$an done, as indicated by
t$e varyin% vie#s on $o# to apply t$at p$rase in t$e numerous #ater conventions t$at $ave
been si%ned in recent years) *$e +ella%io Draft *reaty for %overnin% transboundary auifers5
describes ei%$t %eneral factors, ran%in% from $ydro(%eolo%y to comparative costs, all of #$ic$
must be considered #$en applyin% ,euitable and reasonable, to any specific case) -et us loo.
more closely at t#o considerations t$at reflect t$e social and political c$aracteristics of auifers)
/uity in some form is essential to t$e ne%otiation and ultimate adoption of any
a%reement related to t$e %overnance of s$ared #ater resources) 'at$er t$an a
simple uantitative s$arin% of #ater resources, a more nuanced form of euity is
reuired inorder to ta.e into account #$at is politically acceptable to eac$ side)0
1olf2 reports t$at successful a%reements for s$arin% #ater $ave %enerally proceeded as eac$
side %radually reco%ni3es t$e demands of t$e ot$er side4s5, rat$er t$an by establis$in% a priori
principles or ri%$ts) Similarly, -aut3e and Giordano6 ar%ue t$at most successful
a%reements favour a needs(based rat$er t$an a prior(use basis) /ven today, some
concept of fairness typically trumps calculations of economic efficiency in
international ne%otiations over #ater resources)7,18,11,12 9 dilemma t$at often
arises #it$ all transboundary #ater a%reements is t$e need to balance t$e
principle of euitable and reasonable use #it$ t$e principle t$at no state cause
si%nificant $arm to t$e value of t$e #ater resource for t$e ot$er state4s5 in t$e
basin) Differin% formulations of proposed a%reements %ive priority to one or t$e ot$er of t$ese
principles, or indicate t$at t$ey $ave eual standin%) Per$aps t$ere is a reasonable #ay to
resolve t$is dilemma in t$e case of transboundary auifers) Given t$e sensitivity of
auifers to pollution and t$e near impossibility of decontamination, it is
reasonable to assert t$at for any auifer, but particularly for transboundary
auifers, t$e principle of no si%nificant $arm must $ave priority) If it does not,
euitable and reasonable use #ill become more and more difficult to ac$ieve #it$
eac$ passin% year) Some of t$e auifers #ill $ave become too saline or too
polluted for use, and ot$ers #ill $ave collapsed as t$e #alls bet#een pores erode)
JDI13 1O
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Crop 0ailure
Untreate" %ater pollution causin' "eat!1 crop #ailure1 an"
Q!an R Ca.1 17- Department of Zoology, Abdul Wali Khan University,
Department of Botany, Hazara University
International Journal of Recent Scientific Research- Pollution load in industrial effluent
and ground water due to marble industries in district buner, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
Water pollution is a major global problem which requires ongoing evaluation and
revision of water resource policy at all levels. It has been suggested that it is the leading
worldwide cause of deaths and diseases (Pink and Daniel, 2006) and that it accounts for the
deaths of more than 14,000 people daily (West and Larry, 2006). Surface and groundwater have
often been studied and managed as separate resources although they are interrelated (Denver, 1998).
Surface water seeps through the soil and becomes groundwater. Industrialization plays a vital role
in growth and development of any country. In Pakistan industrial estate establishment was started
with the introduction of 1st five years plane 1955-1960, which laid emphasis on the establishment of large
estates in the country (Nasrullah et al., 2006). The rapid industrialization has direct and indirect
adverse effect on our environment as it discharges untreated effluents which cause air,
water, soil and soil solid waste pollution (Reston, 2001). Untreated water near the point of
disposal, create foul smell and bad odor (Kulkarni, 1979). This bad odor is due to
decomposition of floating solids present in untreated sewage. The net result is large scale
pollution of the water bodies which may act as a source of water supply for domestic use
of inhabitants of localities. This loss of water quality is causing health hazards and death
of human, livestock and death of aquatic lives, crop failure and loss of aesthetics
(Anonymous 1992).
<lobal-War&in' relate" a'riculture collapses %ill "estro)
Bro%n 7++G
Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and
president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, O2.:H; 7..; 1+.B%#)C1 0B5<) ;.W<
25*5H5Z#%5.<V,P 1cienti@c #merican, May2,, *ol. F 5ssue 9, p9-9Q
7or most of us, t!e i"ea t!at ci$ili5ation itself coul" "isinte'rate
probably see&s preposterous. Who &ould not @nd it hard to think seriously
about such a complete departure from &hat &e e(pect of ordinary lifeV What
evidence could make us heed a &arning so dire--and ho& &ould &e go about
responding to itV We are so inure" to a lon' list o# !i'!l) unli*el)
catastrop!es t!at %e are $irtuall) pro'ra&&e" to "is&iss t!e& all
%it! a %a$e o# t!e !an"> 1ure, our civili?ation might devolve into chaos--
and Carth might collide &ith an asteroid, too[\ 7or many years I !a$e
stu"ie" 'lobal a'ricultural1 population1 en$iron&ental an" econo&ic
tren"s an" t!eir interactions( !e co&bine" efects o# t!ose tren"s
JDI13 1F
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an" t!e political tensions t!e) 'enerate point to t!e brea*"o%n o#
'o$ern&ents an" societies. Xet 5, too, have resisted the idea that #oo"
s!orta'es coul" brin' "o%n not only individual governments but also our
'lobal ci$ili5ation(S 5 can no longer ignore that risk. .ur continuing failure
to deal &ith the environmental declines that are undermining the &orld food
economy--&ost i&portant1 #allin' %ater tables, eroding soils and rising
temperatures--#orces &e to conclu"e t!at suc! a collapse is possible(
Ci'! #oo" prices an" #oo" insecurit) is co&parati$el) t!e
<8EAES t!reat to !u&anit)( Causes #aile" states1
terroris& an" in"epen"entl) collapses ci$ili5ation
Bro%n 7++G
Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and
president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, O2.:H; 7..; 1+.B%#)C1 0B5<) ;.W<
25*5H5Z#%5.<V,P 1cienti@c #merican, May2,, *ol. F 5ssue 9, p9-9Q
5n si( of the past nine years &orld grain production has fallen short of consumption,
forcing a steady dra&do&n in stocks. When the 26 harvest began, &orld
carryover stocks of grain (the amount in the bin &hen the ne& harvest begins" &ere
at E2 days of consumption, a near record lo&. 5n response, &orld grain prices in the
spring and summer of last year climbed to the highest level ever.\ As "e&an" #or
#oo" rises #aster t!an supplies are 'ro%in'1 t!e resultin' #oo"-price
inAation puts se$ere stress on t!e 'o$ern&ents o# countries alrea")
teeterin' on t!e e"'e o# c!aos. :nable to buy grain or gro& their o&n, !un'r)
people ta*e to t!e streets. 5ndeed, even before the steep climb in grain prices in
26, the number of failing states &as e(panding ]see sidebar at left^. Many of their
problemNs stem from a failure to slo& the gro&th of their populations. 0ut i# t!e
#oo" situation continues to "eteriorate, entire nations %ill brea* "o%n at an
ever increasing rate. We !a$e entere" a ne% era in 'eopolitics( In t!e 7+t!
centur) t!e &ain t!reat to international securit) %as superpo%er conAictB
to"a) it is #ailin' states. 5t is not the concentration of po&er but its absence that
puts us at risk.\ States #ail %!en national 'o$ern&ents can no lon'er
pro$i"e personal security, #oo" securit) and basic social services such as
education and health care. %hey often lose control of part or all of their territory.
When governments lose their monopoly on po&er, la& and order begin to
disintegrate. #fter a point, countries can become so dangerous that food relief
&orkers are no longer safe and their programs are halted- in 1omalia and
#fghanistan, deteriorating conditions have already put such programs in Aeopardy.\
0ailin' states are o# international concern because t!e) are a source o#
terrorists1 "ru's1 %eapons an" re#u'ees1 t!reatenin' political stabilit)
e$er)%!ere. 1omalia, number one on the 26 list of failing states, has become a
base for piracy. 5ra$, number @ve, is a !otbe" #or terrorist trainin'. #fghanistan,
number seven, is the &orldNs leading supplier of heroin. 7ollo&ing the massive
genocide of 4,,! in B&anda, refugees from that troubled state, thousands of armed
soldiers among them, helped to destabili?e neighboring ;emocratic Bepublic of the
2ongo (number si(".\ .ur global civili?ation depends on a functioning net&ork of
politically healthy nation-states to control the spread of infectious disease, to
manage the international monetary system, to control international terrorism and to
reach scores of other common goals. 5f the system for controlling infectious
diseases--such as polio, 1#B1 or avian >u--breaks do&n, humanity &ill be in trouble.
.nce states fail, no one assumes responsibility for their debt to outside lenders. I#
JDI13 1G
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enou'! states "isinte'rate1 t!eir #all %ill t!reaten the stability of 'lobal
ci$ili5ation itself.
JDI13 7+
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0oo" Suppl) Brin*
=o c!ec*s to #oo" s!orta'es , We:$e !it a %all
Bro%n 7+11
Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and
president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, O%he <e& )eopolitics of 7ood,P
More alarming still, t!e %orl" is losin' its abilit) to so#ten t!e efect o#
s!orta'es( In response to pre$ious price sur'es1 t!e United States, the
&orldNs largest grain producer, %as efecti$el) able to steer t!e %orl" a%a)
#ro& potential catastrop!e. 7rom the mid-2th century until 4,,9, the :nited
1tates had either grain surpluses or idle cropland that could be planted to rescue
countries in trouble. When the 5ndian monsoon failed in 4,E9, for e(ample,
President Hyndon 8ohnsonNs administration shipped one-@fth of the :.1. &heat crop
to 5ndia, successfully staving o3 famine. We canKt "o t!at an)&oreB t!e sa#et)
cus!ion is 'one(
JDI13 71
BeBo Lab Water Af
S!orta'e --N ;rice Spi*e
Water s!orta'es is t!e BI<<ES internal to #oo" s!orta'es an"
price spi*es , Lea"s to #oo" insecurit) an" conAict
Bro%n 7++G
Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and
president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, O2.:H; 7..; 1+.B%#)C1 0B5<) ;.W<
25*5H5Z#%5.<V,P 1cienti@c #merican, May2,, *ol. F 5ssue 9, p9-9Q
What about supplyV %he three environmental trends 5 mentioned earlier--t!e
s!orta'e o# #res!%ater1 the loss of topsoil and the rising temperatures
(and other e3ects" of global &arming--are &a*in' it increasingly !ar" to
expan" t!e %orl"Ks 'rain suppl) #ast enou'! to *eep up %it!
"e&an". .f all those trends, ho&ever, t!e sprea" o# %ater s!orta'es
poses t!e &ost i&&e"iate t!reat( he biggest challenge here is
irrigation, &hich consumes Q percent of the &orldNs fresh&ater. Millions of
irrigation &ells in many countries are no& pumping &ater out of underground
sources faster than rainfall can recharge them. %!e result is #allin' %ater
tables in countries populate" b) !al# t!e %orl"Ks people, including the
three big grain producers--2hina, 5ndia and t!e U(S(\ :sually a$uifers are
replenishable, but some of the most important ones are notK the SfossilS
a$uifers, so called because they store ancient &ater and are not recharged by
precipitation. 7or these--including the vast .gallala #$uifer that underlies the
:.1. )reat Plains, the 1audi a$uifer and the deep a$uifer under the <orth
2hina Plain--depletion &ould spell the end of pumping. 5n arid regions such a
loss could also bring an end to agriculture altogether.\ 5n 2hina the &ater
table under the <orth 2hina Plain, an area that produces more than half of
the countryNs &heat and a third of its corn, is falling fast. .verpumping has
used up most of the &ater in a shallo& a$uifer there, forcing &ell drillers to
turn to the regionNs deep a$uifer, &hich is not replenishable. # report by the
World 0ank foresees Scatastrophic conse$uences for future generationsS
unless &ater use and supply can $uickly be brought back into balance.\ #s
&ater tables have fallen and irrigation &ells have gone dry, 2hinaNs &heat
crop, the &orldNs largest, has declined by 6 percent since it peaked at 42F
million tons in 4,,Q. 5n that same period 2hinaNs rice production dropped !
percent. %he &orldNs most populous nation may soon be importing massive
$uantities of grain.\ 0ut &ater shortages are even more &orrying in 5ndia.
%here the margin bet&een food consumption and survival is more precarious.
Millions of irrigation &ells have dropped &ater tables in almost every state. #s
7red Pearce reported in <e& 1cientistK\ +alf of 5ndiaNs traditional hand-dug
&ells and millions of shallo&er tube &ells have already dried up, bringing a
spate of suicides among those &ho rely on them. Clectricity blackouts are
reaching epidemic proportions in states &here half of the electricity is used to
pump &ater from depths of up to a kilometer ]F,Ffeet^.\ # World 0ank
study reports that 49 percent of 5ndiaNs food supply is produced by mining
ground&ater. 1tated other&ise, 4Q9 million 5ndians consume grain produced
&ith &ater from irrigation &ells that &ill soon be e(hausted. !e continue"
s!rin*in' o# %ater supplies coul" lea" to un&ana'eable #oo"
s!orta'es an" social conAict(
JDI13 77
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Water management is the primary reason &e are facing a food crisis D
Plan leads to cooperation and solves
Bro%n Jul) H1 7+13
Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and
president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, ON%he real threat to our future is peak &aterN,P
Peak oil has generated headlines in recent years, but t!e real t!reat to our
future is pea* %ater( %here are substitutes for oil, but not for &ater. We can
produce food &ithout oil, but not &ithout &ater.\ We drink on average four
$uarts (!.9 litres" of &ater per day, in one form or another, but the food &e
eat each day re$uires 2, $uarts of &ater to produce, or 9 times as
much. <ettin' enou'! %ater to "rin* is relati$el) eas)1 but 2n"in'
enou'! to pro"uce t!e e$er-'ro%in' .uantities o# 'rain t!e %orl"
consu&es is anot!er &atter.\ <rain consu&e" "irectl) supplies
nearl) !al# o# our calories( %hat consumed indirectly as meat, milk, and
eggs supplies a large part of the remainder. %oday roughly !W of the &orld
grain harvest comes from irrigated land. 5t thus comes as no surprise that
irrigation e(pansion has played a central role in tripling the &orld grain
harvest over the last si( decades.\ ;uring the last half of the 2th century,
the &orldNs irrigated area e(panded from 2F2m acres (,Fm hectares" in 4,9
to QEm in 2. %his tripling of &orld irrigation &ithin 9 years &as
historically uni$ue. 0ut since then the gro&th in irrigation has come to a near
standstill, e(panding only ,W bet&een 2 and 24.
JDI13 73
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A' Collapse --N 0aile" State
Without proper &ater management the &orld &ill be consumed by
failed states and geopolitical tensions
Bro%n 7+17
Hester, environmental analyst, founder of the World&atch 5nstitute, and founder and
president of the Carth Policy 5nstitute, O%he &orld is closer to a food crisis than most
people reali?e,P httpKGG&&&.guardian.co.ukGenvironmentG242GAulG2!G&orld-food-
Welcome to t!e ne% 'eopolitics o# #oo" scarcit)( #s food supplies
tighten, &e are moving into a ne& food era, one in %!ic! it is e$er)
countr) #or itsel#.\ %he &orld is in serious trouble on the food front. 0ut
t!ere is little e$i"ence t!at political lea"ers !a$e )et 'raspe" t!e
&a'nitu"e o# %!at is !appenin'( %he progress in reducing hunger in
recent decades has been reversed. Unless %e &o$e .uic*l) to a"opt ne%
population, energy, and %ater policies1 t!e 'oal o# era"icatin' !un'er
%ill re&ain /ust t!at.\ %ime is running out. !e %orl" &a) be &uc!
closer to an unmanageable food shortage D replete &ith soaring food prices,
spreading food unrest, and ultimately political instabilit), t!an &ost
people realise(
JDI13 7D
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<rain Car"s
E$en !ar") 'rains stru''le to sur$i$e on t!e US-Mexico bor"er
, ;us!es suppl) "o%n an" prices up
Qenne") 7+17
Hindsay, C(ternal #3airs ;irector for 1orghum 2hecko3, OMe(ican Market .3ers
.pportunity for 1outh %e(as )rain 1orghum,P httpKGGsorghumchecko3.comGpress-
With the Ha <ina &eather pattern e(pected to continue, t!e Sout! ;lains o#
exas once a'ain see&s susceptible to "rou'!t( <i$en t!e natural
"rou'!t tolerance associate" %it! sor'!u& an" "e&an"
opportunities #ro& Mexico1 re'ions li*e t!e 8io <ran"e Palle) an"
t!e exas Coastal Ben" are %ell positione" to plant an increase in
sor'!u& acres. Purchasing more than Q6 million bushels of grain sorghum
annually, Me(ico is one of the most important markets for :.1. sorghum.
OMexico is t!e pre"o&inant price "ri$er #or U(S( sor'!u&,P says Kevin
Boepke, manager of 5nternational .perations for the :.1. )rains 2ouncil. O5n
any given year, Mexico alone accounts #or roughly 29 to 3+ percent o#
U(S( sor'!u& exports(4 While t!e "rou'!t !as afecte" nu&erous
sor'!u& 'ro%in' re'ions1 particularl) exas, there is potential silver
lining for 242 sorghum crop. 8ohn Miller &ith 1outh&est #g 2onsulting
believes the strong demand for :.1. sorghum in Me(ico &ill return as ne&
crop supplies become available. O!e "e&an" #or sor'!u& b) Mexico
s!oul" increase 'i$en t!at t!e U(S( &ar*et is co&in' of o# a se$ere
"rou'!t in 244, even despite some recent rains that could boost
production,P Miller said. O%he drought, coupled &ith the :.1. running lo& on
sorghum, helped to create high basis levels for corn. %herefore, the Me(ican
sorghum market should be primed for taking ne& sorghum supplies.P %his
return to the :.1. market has begun any&here from late 8uly to late .ctober,
after Me(ico end-users utili?e grain gro&n in their o&n country. 5n addition,
Me(ican users appreciate that U(S( sor'!u& is !ar$este" at a &oisture
an" .ualit) le$el %ell-suite" to t!eir nee"s( In Januar)1 t!e U(S(
Depart&ent o# A'riculture reporte" sor'!u& exports %ere "o%n
%it! slu''is! export sales. +o&ever, Boepke said "e&an" #or 'rain
sor'!u& continues to be an" %ill al%a)s re&ain stron'( !at is
particularl) true in Mexico %!ere t!e crop is consi"ere" b) &an)
Mexican li$estoc* pro"ucers as t!e opti&al 'rain #or #ee"in'
li$estoc*( OMany people don/t reali?e it, but after 2hina, Me(ico is proAected
to be the largest gro&th market for :.1. grains during the ne(t 2 years,P
Boepke said.
Me(ico consumes massive amounts of 1orghum Wheat from %e(as
Qenne") 7+17
Hindsay, C(ternal #3airs ;irector for 1orghum 2hecko3, OMe(ican Market .3ers
.pportunity for 1outh %e(as )rain 1orghum,P httpKGGsorghumchecko3.comGpress-
Miller sai" since t!e U(S( is Mexico:s closest exporter o# sor'!u&1
exas %ill a'ain be an i&portant source o# #ee" 'rain( One o# t!e
best %a)s #or exas to be an i&portant pla)er in Mexico is to !a$e a
crop( 3Once cross-bor"er &erc!an"isers see supplies "e$elopin' in
JDI13 7I
BeBo Lab Water Af
t!e 2el" in t!e U(S(1 co&petition %ill start to "e$elop an" basis
le$els s!oul" 2r& .uic*l) a#ter !ar$est14 he said. With at least modest
amounts of moisture before planting, farmers &ill start thinking about the
&ater demands of an entire season, Miller said. %his can often lead to
choosing more sorghum relative to cotton or corn across the 1outh Plains on
non-irrigated acres.
<rain is 'ro%n in Cali#ornia all t!e %a) to t!e bor"er
Qupers 7+13
Karl, &riter, %he 1hepherd/s )rain,
1hepherdNs )rain has a &orking relationship &ith ;enn) =e%&an out o#
0resno1 Cali#ornia %!o !as a ric! !istor) %it! UC Da$is an"
pro"ucers all t!e %a) sout! to t!e Mexican bor"er pro"ucin' 'rain
in t!eir rotation( 2ombining that &ith the #;M milling access in Hos
#ngeles has created a perfect scenario.
<rains are a pri&ar) export #ro& t!e Unite" States to Mexico
Salin 7+11
;elmy, Cconomist at :1;#, O :.1. )rain and 1oybean C(ports to Me(ico # Modal
1hare %ransportation #nalysis, 2Q-24,P
0ulk commodities accounted for E9 percent of the total 26 million metric tons
(mmt" of :.1. agricultural products e(ported to Me(ico in 24 , and coarse
'rains I G percent o# t!e bul* a'ricultural s!ip&ents (7#1 2 44 ".
1oybeans and %!eat accounte" #or 2 and 1D per cent of the 4Q . , mmt
of bulk e(ports, respectively. Al&ost O+ percent o# Mexico a'ricultural
export s to t!e United States consist o# #res! an" prepare" #ruit an"
$e'etables 1 an" !orticultural pro"ucts (7#1 244" . %rucks are the
primary transportation mode used in Me(ico /s agricultural trade ,
accounting for n early QE percent of Me(ico total agricultural e(ports (15#P
244". +o&ever, FD percent o# Mexican a'ricultural i&ports enter t!e
countr) b) t ra in or $essel (15#P 244"
Wheat is primarily gro&n in the 1onora region &hich is key to Me(ico
and &orld &heat production
Carrison 7++G
8e3, &riter, O:# 1cholar to 1tudy Wheat 2ultivation in Me(ico,P
Maribel Al$are5, an assistant research social scientist in %he :niversity of
#ri?ona 1outh&est 2enter, !as recei$e" a 7ulbrightG)arcia Bobles 'rant to
con"uct researc! in Sonora1 Mexico. #lvare? &ill use the nine-month,
`4, grant to anal)5e t!e historical and cultural si'ni2cance o# %!eat
culti$ation an" consu&ption in =ort!ern Mexico. 7ulbright grants are
highly prestigious a&ards given every year to :.1. scholars. %he 7ulbright
Program is the >agship international educational e(change sponsored by the
:.1. government and is designed to Sincrease mutual understanding bet&een
the people of the :nited 1tates and the people of other countries.S
7ulbrightG)arcia Bobles grants support collaborative &ork bet&een :.1. and
Me(ican academic institutions and scholars in the border regions. !e
JDI13 7H
BeBo Lab Water Af
W!eat In"ustr) in Sonora Mexico is one o# t!e &ost i&portant
pro"ucers o# %!eat in t!e Western Ce&isp!ere1 an" Sonora is t!e
t!ir" lar'est pro"ucer o# %!eat in Mexico( W!eat pro"ucts suc! as
Jtortillas "e !arina1J or Aour tortillas1 brea"s an" pastries also are
iconic markers of a manifest <orteIo cultural and regional identity in
northern Me(ico and the south&estern :.1. 7irst introduced in the region in
the late 4Es by the 8esuit priest and e(plorer Cusebio Kino, &heat
cultivation, milling and trading no& comprise one of the most important
economic sectors in 1onora. #ccording to an assessment by the Me(ico-based
5nternational Mai?e and Wheat 5mprovement 2enter, %!eat #ar&ers in
Sonora obtain so&e o# t!e !i'!est %!eat )iel"s a&on' "e$elopin'
countries( 5n 4,!F, &heat cultivation in 1onora &as the focus of a series of
studies funded by the Bockefeller 7oundation that launched &hat is generally
kno&n as the S)reen Bevolution,S creating a series of approaches to soil and
crop sustainability credited for reducing hunger in the &orld and that earned
its principal investigator, <orman 0orlaug, a <obel Peace Pri?e in 4,Q.
%oday, giant bread producers in Me(ico like the 0imbo brand (a co-o&ner of
the :.1. brand .ro&eat" e(ert considerable in>uence on this sector of
Me(icoNs economy. !e i&portance o# %!eat in t!e %orl" to"a) is on
t!e rise. Cconomists and sociologists estimate that a F percent per-year
increase in &orld &heat production &ill be needed over the ne(t several
decades to meet &orld food demands.
Sonora is a bor"er state
Wal*er an" ;a$la*o$ic!-Qoc!i 7++G
Marisa and *era, O%he 1tate of the #ri?ona-1onora 0order BegionK 1hared\ Pollution,
1hared 1olutions,P httpKGG&&&.scerp.orgGbiG05*G#Z1on.pdf
!e Ari5ona-Sonora bor"er re'ion is co&&onl) i"enti2e" as t!e #our
counties inS Ari5ona an" 11 S &unicipiosS in Sonora a"/acent to t!e
international boun"ar). 5n\ #ri?ona they include Xuma, Pima, 1anta 2ru?,
and 2ochise 2ounty. 5n 1onora,\ the 44 border \ municipios\ are 1an Huis Bao
2olorado, Puerto PeIasco, )eneral\ C. 2alles, 2aborca, #ltar, 1aric, <ogales,
1anta 2ru?, 2ananea, <aco, and #gua\ Prieta. %he region/s population
gro&th, e(pected to e(ceed 2.4 million by 24,\ has placed tremendous
pressure on available resources and infrastructure. Hocal\ and regional
governments on both sides of the border struggle to meet gro&ing\ demands
for &ater, se&age, health care, roads, housing, and other services.\ Hike
else&here in the :.1.-Me(ican border, 1onora/s border cities are several\
times larger in population than their counterparts on the #ri?ona side.
Hargely\ attributable to migration from the interior of Me(ico in search of
Aobs, this disparity\ creates severe implications for #ri?ona border cities,
&hich struggle to absorb the\ impacts of increasing trade, tra=c, and
migration &ithout ade$uate @nancial\ resources.
JDI13 7O
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Bor"erlan"s Pulnerable
!e poor on t!e bor"erlan"s are uni.uel) $ulnerable to %ater
Laura M. =or&an et al( 17, U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center. Miguel L. Villarreal b, Francisco
Lara-Valencia c, Yongping Yuan , Wen!ing "ie , Sylvia Wilson e, Glays #!aya $, %achel Sleeter g, b University o$ #ri&ona, School o$
"atural %esources an the 'nviron!ent, (ucson, #) *+,-., US# c #ri&ona State University, School o$ (ransborer Stuies, (e!pe, #) *+-*,,
US# U.S. 'nviron!ental /rotection #gency, Lanscape 'cology 0ranch, Las Vegas, "V *1..1, US# eU.S. Geological Survey, (e2as Water
Science Center, #ustin, (3, US# $ University o$ #ri&ona, (ucson, #) *+,.1, US# g U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science
Center, Menlo /ar4, C#, US#. Mapping socio-environmentally vulnerable populations access and exposure to ecosystem services at the
U.S.eMexico borderlands. '5F
Future generations living in the borerlans 6ill be epenent on binational a!inistrations aopting
!anage!ent strategies that best acco!!oate sustainable evelop!ent. # goal o$ sustainable
evelop!ent is to eli!inate ris4s to the !ost vulnerable populations by !a4ing this central to ecision-
!a4ing processes 7#ger, -889: "elson et al., -88,;. # !ore sustainable $uture also re<uires ne6 approaches to the
6ay ecisions are !ae about natural resources, 6here the bene$its an services provie by ecosyste!s
are recogni&e an represente in planning an policy iscussions 75ancoc4, -8.8;. (he U.S. Geological Survey
7USGS; has evelope an 'cosyste! /ort$olio Moel 7'/M: Labiosa et al., -881, p. =.; that presents the three pillars o$ sustainability 7social,
econo!ic, an biophysical characteristics; together in an online ecision support syste! to help !anagers visuali&e the i!pacts o$ !anage!ent
practices. (he '/M o$$ers a place-base holistic ecosyste! analysis that portrays an unbiase vie6 o$
regional i!pacts an ecosyste! service traeo$$s in alternative scenarios an is being applie in the Santa
Cru& Watershe at the U.S. Me2ico borer o$ #ri&ona Sonorato help ecision-!a4ers ienti$y 6here
ecosyste! services istribution shoul be regulate across the US Me2ico borer 7"or!an, (allent-5alsell et al.,
!e co&bination o# population increase in cli&ate c!an'e is
&a*in' %ater a"aptation &ore "i9cult in co&&unities
alon' t!e 8io <ran"e
Cur" 13 (0rian, Professor of #gricultural Cconomics T <M1: S2limate
*ulnerability and #daptive 1trategies #long the Bio )randeGBio 0ravo 0order of
Me(ico and the :nited 1tatesS. 8ournal of 2ontemporary Water Besearch b
Cducation. httpKGGonlinelibrary.&iley.comGdoiG4.4444GA.4,FE-Q!c.242.F42Q.(Gfull"
Populations along both sides of the Bio )randeGBio 0ravo border bet&een Me(ico
and the :nited 1tates are likely to be increasingly challenged by the compounding
dual e3ects of population gro&th and climate change. )ro&ing populations heighten
competition for &ater in an already &ater-scarce region, &here &ater is most
commonly used to gro& food. Begional climate change proAections vary signi@cantly
&ith respect to precipitation change but are generally consistent in predicting
higher temperatures and the drying e3ects they &ill have on crops, surface storage,
and natural vegetation. <ot only is climate change e(pected to bring more fre$uent,
severe, and enduring droughts, but sea level and the fre$uency and intensity of
storms, including hurricanes and >oods are also e(pected to rise (Parry et al.
2Q- 1olomon et al. 2Q". #lthough both sides of the border share e(posure to
&ater scarcity, population gro&th, and changing climate, resiliency may be lo&er
and vulnerability higher in Me(ico. Belative to :.1. border communities, adaptive
capacity in Me(icoNs border communities is constrained by fe&er economic and
institutional resources, limited capacities for restoration and disaster-relief, and
greater risk-e(posure by disadvantaged communities (5barrardn et al.
26- Martane? 2Q".
JDI13 7F
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Currentl)1 Mexican %ater resources are $ulnerable to a $ariet)
o# #actors
Cur" 13 (0rian, Professor of #gricultural Cconomics T <M1: S2limate
*ulnerability and #daptive 1trategies #long the Bio )randeGBio 0ravo 0order of
Me(ico and the :nited 1tatesS. 8ournal of 2ontemporary Water Besearch b
Cducation. httpKGGonlinelibrary.&iley.comGdoiG4.4444GA.4,FE-Q!c.242.F42Q.(Gfull"
Me(icoNs &ater resources are also highly vulnerable to changes in both temperature
and precipitation. 1urface and ground &ater supplies are often overe(ploited and
stressed by pollution. #s in the Western :.1., agriculture accounts for the maAority of
&ater use, in 2, &as &as nearly QQ percent (2onagua 244". # recent study along
the #ri?ona and 1onora border, &here communities are heavily reliant on a
transboundary a$uifer for &ater, indicates that continued population gro&th in the
region &ill likely re$uire enhanced use of transfers of surface &aters and increased
use of recycled &aters to meet gro&ing demands. 2limate change trends, the study
indicates, are highly variable in their proAected e3ects on ground &ater >o&s and
a$uifer levels. :nder drier climate scenarios, a$uifer recharge &ould add
considerably to the &ater stress faced by the region.
JDI13 7G
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S.uo erases bor"er population
!e sociall) &ar'inal populations on t!e bor"erlan"s t!at re
&ost ne'ati$el) i&pacte" b) t!e collapse or "epletion o#
bor"er %aters!e"s are not e$en inclu"e" in status .uo
"ata an" %ater use calculations , t!e af is necessar) to
re$erse t!eir erasure in polic) &a*in'(
Laura M. =or&an et al( 17, U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center. Miguel L. Villarreal b, Francisco
Lara-Valencia c, Yongping Yuan , Wen!ing "ie , Sylvia Wilson e, Glays #!aya $, %achel Sleeter g, b University o$ #ri&ona, School o$
"atural %esources an the 'nviron!ent, (ucson, #) *+,-., US# c #ri&ona State University, School o$ (ransborer Stuies, (e!pe, #) *+-*,,
US# U.S. 'nviron!ental /rotection #gency, Lanscape 'cology 0ranch, Las Vegas, "V *1..1, US# eU.S. Geological Survey, (e2as Water
Science Center, #ustin, (3, US# $ University o$ #ri&ona, (ucson, #) *+,.1, US# g U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science
Center, Menlo /ar4, C#, US#. Mapping socio-environmentally vulnerable populations access and exposure to ecosystem services at the
U.S.eMexico borderlands. '5F
Socio-environ!ental vulnerable populations are o$ten unrepresente in lan-use planning yet have great
potential $or loss 6hen e2pose to changes in ecosyste! services. #!inistrative bounaries, cultural i$$erences, an
language barriers increase the isassociation bet6een lan-use !anage!ent an !arginali&e populations living in the U.S.eMe2ico borerlans.
(his paper escribes the evelop!ent o$ a Moi$ie Socio-'nviron!ental Vulnerability >ne2 7M-S'V>;,
using eter!inants $ro! binational census an neighborhoo ata that escribe levels o$ eucation,
access to resources, !igratory status, housing, an nu!ber o$ epenents, to provie a si!pli$ie
snapshot o$ the region?s populace that can be use in binational planning e$$orts. We apply this ine2 at
the SCW, locate on the borer bet6een #ri&ona, US# an Sonora, Me2ico. For co!parison, the Soil an Water
#ssess!ent (ool is concurrently applie to assess the provision o$ erosion- an foo control services over a 1-year perio. We escribe ho6 this
coupling o$ ata can $or! the base $or an ecosyste! services assess!ent across political bounaries that can be use by lan-use planners.
%esults reveal potential isparities in environ!ental ris4s an burens throughout the binational
6atershe in resiential istricts surrouning an bet6een urban centers. (he M-S'V> can be use as an i!portant
$irst step in aressing environ- !ental @ustice $or binational ecision-!a4ing. (he !ost vulnerable people o not al6ays live
in the !ost vulnerable environ!ents. Spatial analysis allo6s $or the ienti$ication o$ 6here i!poverishe populations an !arginal
environ!ents coe2ist. >n social-ecological syste!s, vulnerability escribes a co!!unity?s resilience to change,
necessary $or sustainable evelop!ent 7#ger, -889: 0riguglio, Corina, Farrugia, A Vella, -881: Fol4e et al., -88-: "elson,
#ger, A 0ro6n, -88,;. Sustainable evelop!ent is recogni&e as a !utual goal that provies $or the inevitable
population gro6th e2pecte 6ithout har!ing resources $or $uture generations. (he Unite "ations
ienti$ie three co!ponents necessary to be integrate $or sustainable evelop!ent, 7i; econo!ic
evelop!ent, 7ii; social evelop!ent, an 7iii; environ!ental protection as interepenent an !utually rein$orcing
pillars 7Unite "ations, .1*,, .11-: 0runtlan, .1*,;. '<uity an social @ustice are !a@or social goals o$ sustainable evelop!ent 70runtlan,
.1*,;. /rugh, Costan&a, an Baly 7-888; an Warner 7-88-; recogni&e that local sustainability practices are i!perative but the environ- !ental
@ustice !ove!ent has not intersecte 6ith local sustainable initiatives to consier the social i!ensions o$ sustainability. 'nviron!ental
@ustice is the concept that environ!ental burens an bene$its shoul be e<ually istribute to all people
to ensure a sa$e, healthy environ!ent $or all 7#ger, -88=: #rnol, .11*: 0een A Gupta, .11,: Ca!acho, .11*: Bo6,
Casperson, A 0ohn, -889: Faber, .11*;. 5istorically, spatial stuies o$ environ!ental @ustice analy&e the
characteristics o$ the population potentially e2pose to a ha&arous lan-use 70een an Gupta .11,: Maantay, -88-:
Unite Church o$ Christ Co!!ission $or %acial Dustice, .1*,: Warner, -88-;. Less-resilient or vulnerable populations !ay be
less li4ely to respon to, cope 6ith, an recover $ro! isasters an ha&ars an nee to be recogni&e as
such in ecision-!a4ing an lan-use planning 7#ger, -889: #rnol, .11*: 0utler, Corvalan, A Coren, -88+: %orEgue& et al.,
-889: (allis A /olas4y, -881;. #yge!an an 'vans 7-88F, -88=; an Warner 7-88-; argue that environ!ental @ustice is
the social i!ension an 4eystone o$ sustainable evelop!ent.
JDI13 3+
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;o$ert) T De!u&
;o$ert) "e!u&ani5es e$er)bo")(
8obinson an" Ciriello (.rder of Preachers(dominican nun", Ph;" NGF
bernadine and Maria 7ormation and ;evelopment for catholic 1chool Headers p. 4,2
Bedemption has everything to do &ith being released from poverty. Poverty
dehumani?es people. 5t makes them dependent. 5t prevents them from developing
their full human potential. 5t oppresses the human spirit. Poverty translates into
illiteracy, unemployment, teenage pregnancy, addiction, the destruction of family
life, violence, the abuse and neglect of children, social marginali?ation, prostitution,
homelessness. moral ignorance, emotional under development, and prison. %here is
no &ay of conceiving the redemption of the human race, especially in light of the
2hurchNs o&n social reaching, that does not rake into account the reality of human
brokenness, not only at the level of individual persons, but also at the level of social
structures. %here is personal sin, the evil that &ounds us as persons and for &hich
&e bear personal responsibility- and there is there is social sin, the evil that
surrounds us, the evil into &hich &e are born, the evil to &hich each of us, as &e
gro&, makes his or her o&n indelible contribution Xet, not only does poverty
dehumani?e the poor- &ith a soul threatening, inverse log, it also dehumani?es the
;o$ert) "e!u&ani5es
Monirul 5slam Q!an I Professor of 1ociology, :niversity of ;haka, Challenges in
Constructing the Sociological Concept of Poverty Page F J
httpKGG&&&.bangladeshsociology.orgG0C81W2-W22.4.EW2-W2Monir.pdfM C+7
%he third vie& observes that the e(isting de@nition on poverty is not respectful of
the human values. 0y giving e(clusive emphasis on food in the de@nition of poverty
other important elements are neglected. 0y con@ning human needs to food only the
concept of poverty is dehumani?ed. 5t gives the impression that the obAective of
human e(istence is only to survive physically. 0ut there is also the need to live &ith
dignity and respect. %here is need for recognition, reali?ation of the human
potential. When the entire focus goes to meeting the ebasic need/, primarily food, it
is branded as the elivestock concept/. 5t has the further implication that the above
philosophy is mainly geared to the need of a materialist society that re$uires
unhindered supply of human labor. %here is an indication of e(ploitation underlying
such an approach. 5t is the priority of the class commanding the main resources- the
dependent class is engaged simply in responding to that priority. 1uch a vie&
completely reverses the e(isting notion of ebasic need/ and includes a &ide range of
socio-psychological elements.
JDI13 31
BeBo Lab Water Af
A' Exacerbates
An e.treme amo$nt of 4ater is $sed to4ard agric$lt$re in the
border region, 4hich is a threat to shortages and
Car'ro$e et al 13 (;irector of 2enter for Cnvironmental Besearch T :%-Cl
Paso. SWater, climate, and social change in a fragile landscapeS Ccosphere.
Water $uality is a particular threat to &ater resources sustainability in the border
region and similar arid and semi-arid regions. 5n particular, salini?ation of surface
&ater and shallo& ground&ater in desert river basins like the Middle Bio )rande
represents a signi@cant global environmental problem. %he problem has intensi@ed
as population gro&th in desert areas has increased and more &ater is needed to
support agriculture and municipalities (Phillips et al. 2F. 7arber et al. 2!. .ren
et al. 2!. +ogan et al. 2Q. 1?vnkie&ic? et al. 26". %he highest &ater use in
the Bio )rande *alley is for irrigation to support agriculture (Cllis et al. 4,,F".
JDI13 37
BeBo Lab Water Af
N=ile 8i$er BasinL
JDI13 33
BeBo Lab Water Af
!e 'lobe is 'oin' to erupt in %ater %ars , !e =ile %ill be t!e
2rst an" lar'est Aas!point %it!out ne% &et!o"s #or
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
United =ations 2'ures su''est t!ere are nearl) 3++ potential %ater
conAicts aroun" t!e %orl". Q 0ecause more than t&o billion people in the
&orld lack access to clean drinking &ater, 6 tensions are &ost acute in
"e$elopin' countries, &here the little &ater resources that are available
are often polluted or s$uandered. , #dditionally, more than O,W of all future
population increases &ill take lace in the developing &orld.P 4 Man),
therefore, reco'ni5e t!e =ile Basin as t!e &ost li*el) spot #or a %ar
o$er %ater- 44 former 1ecretary-)eneral of the :nited <ations, 0outros
0outros-)hali, said t!e next %ar in =ort!ern A#rica %oul" be o$er t!e
%aters o# t!e =ile( 17 Because population rates are a&on' t!e
!i'!est in t!e %orl"1 eac! A#rican countr) s!ares at least one ri$er
basin %it! a nei'!borin' nation( Wit! t!e ten =ile Basin countries
continuin' to "isa'ree o$er its use1 t!e re'ion &ust "e$elop a
s)ste& o# %ater use base" upon transna- tional cooperation in or"er
to ensure #uture political stabilit)( 1
US-Mexico ne'otiations %ill set t!e #ra&e%or* #or
international &et!o"s o# %ater-ne'otiations an" !as t!e
potential to pre$ent all =ile-base" conAicts
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
Despite t!e 'lobal concern o$er %ater scarcit)1 in#rastructural an"
political barriers !a$e !istoricall) bloc*e" international
transboun"ar) a'ree&ents across t!e 'lobe #ro& pro"ucin'
efecti$e s)ste&s o# %ater &ana'e&ent. 4! 8ecent ne- 'otiations
bet%een t!e United States an" Mexico1 !o%e$er1 peace#ull) en"e" a
2#t) )ear stru''le o$er t!e s!are" %aters o# t!e 8io <ran"e 8i$er(
W!ile it !as )et to be seen i# t!e recent pro'ress %ill sol$e t!e
re'ion:s lon'-ter& %ater proble&s1 it expose" &et!o"s o#
cooperation t!at can be use" to #oster interna- tional a'ree&ent in
=ort!ern A#rica(%his article &ill e(amine t!e ne'otiations bet%een t!e
Unite" States an" Mex- ico as a basis #or su''estin' a &et!o" o#
transboun"ar) cooperation to ease in- tensi#)in' conAicts o$er
%ater use in =ort!ern A#rica. Cven if the current &ater shortage does not
cause outright &arfare in the near future, Oit already causes enough violence
and con>ict &ithin ]#frican^ nations to threaten social and polit- ical stability.P
JDI13 3D
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49 Part 55 of this paper &ill analy?e the e3ectiveness of the negoti- ations
bet&een the :nited 1tates and Me(ico. Part 555 &ill introduce the &ater
problems in <orthern #frica, speci@cally along the <ile Biver. 5t &ill then e(-
amine the current status of international cooperation e3orts and e(plain the
pos- sible conse$uences that &ill result &ithout a change of strategy. Part 5*
&ill introduce and criti$ue t&o proposed solutions to global &ater scarcityK
treating access to &ater as a basic human right, and privati?ing the &ater
supply by mak- ing &ater an economic good. Part * &ill compare the situation
bet&een the :nited 1tates and Me(ico to that of the <ile Biver 0asin and
e(plain &hy each re$uires a uni$ue solution. 5t &ill then combine aspects
from the :nited 1tates' Me(ico dispute, the privati?ation model, and the
human rights approach to pro- pose an optimal frame&ork for a successful
&ater management plan in <orthern #frica based on common interests,
transnational institutions, private funding, and minimal standards of &ater
allocation and $uality. #lthough t!e current settin' in t!e =ile 8i$er
Basin &a) li*el) cause &ilitar) conAict1 efecti$e plannin' an"
cooperation can &ol" #uture %ater issues t!rou'! efecti$e
peace&a*in' an" "iplo&atic eforts(
<ile &ater >o& is an e(istential problem for the state of Cgypt D the crises &ill d&arf
current political tension risking total state collapse
15M.< ALLISO= 4! ;ecember, 211 httpKGGdailymaverick.co.?aGarticleG244-42-
4!-revolution-masks-egypts-real-problems Bevolution masks CgyptNs real problems
;istracted by the revolution, Cgypt is struggling to deal &ith three e(istential crises
that might ultimately prove far more revolutionary to Cgypt/s &ay of lifeK
overpopulation, high food prices and &ater shortages. %his &as the message of
former :< secretary general, 0outros 0outros-)hali. %he bad ne&s for Cgypt is that
he/s probably right. Cgypt is a harsh desert country, &ith Aust one redeeming
geographical featureK the <ile Biver, &hich snakes through the 1ahara, turning
everything it touches green. 5t/s from the <ile that Cgypt drinks, and from the <ile
that it eats. 5t is also &here almost everyone lives D some ,6W of the population live
on Aust FW of the territory. 0ut the <ile can/t feed everyone these days. %here are
simply too many Cgyptians, already 64-million of them, and another bet&een 4-
million and 2-million are being born every year. Cgyptian agriculture only produces
about half the &heat needed to feed the country. 1o Cgypt imports &heat, lots of it-
it is the largest importer of &heat in the &orld. 1o &hat happens &hen the price of
&heat doubles, as it did bet&een 8une 24 and 8une 244V %he sharp price
increase &as a function of poor crops in Bussia and #ustralia, combined &ith the
ne& demand for &heat from #sian countries. 5t hit Cgypt hardest. %he government
&as forced to dip into its foreign currency reserves and the price of bread on the
street rose sharply. %here &as domestic unrest, demonstrations and eventually
+osni Mubarak/s government collapsed. <ot that the revolution &as only about the
price of bread- but it &as partly. #t the same time, Cgypt/s lifeblood, the <ile, is
under attack. %he &aters of the <ile have been governed for this century and most
of the last by a colonial-era treaty &hich guaranteed some ,W of the <ile &aters
for the consumption of 1udan and Cgypt. ;o&nriver countries like Cthiopia, Kenya
and :ganda had to share the remaining 4W bet&een them, e3ectively preventing
them from damming the <ile or using it as a primary irrigation source. <ot that it
has been a huge problem until no&. %he economies of the do&nriver countries have
never really developed to the point &here they &ere able to utilise the <ile &aters
e3ectively and besides these countries all have alternative &ater supplies D a
JDI13 3I
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geographical lu(ury not a3orded to Cgypt or 1udan. 0ut as sub-1aharan #frican
economies gro& at an astonishing average in this @nancial climate of around 9W a
year, there is greater demand for &ater, and the po&er &ater can generate. <o&
the do&nriver countries, led by Cthiopia, are beginning to push seriously for a
revision of the treaty. 0eing do&nriver, these countries have Cgypt at their mercy.
#nd &hile they &ill never stop the river/s >o& completely, even a small reduction in
the amount of &ater that makes it to Cgypt could prove devastating, directly
a3ecting the amount of food that can be gro&n and forcing Cgypt to import even
more of its staples. 2ouple the &ater and food issues &ith Cgypt/s steady population
gro&th and suddenly the country/s future looks very precarious indeed. 0ut, in the
revolutionary atmosphere &hich alternates bet&een euphoria and anticlima(, it is
very di=cult to look beyond even ne(t year. %he interim military government cannot
make the kind of di=cult long-term decisions &hich might alleviate future problems.
%he ne& parliament doesn/t yet have the po&er to do so and is sorely lacking in
people &ho might kno& ho& to address the situation. %he protesters are Aust
concerned &ith making sure their revolution doesn/t end before the last of the old
establishment has been evicted. %here/s a real danger that Cgypt/s hunger for
democracy &ill only e(acerbate its physical hunger. <obody is focussing on
anything beside their o&n narro&, short-term domestic imperatives. %his &as the
point made forcefully by former :nited <ations secretary general 0outros 0outros-
)hali, no& head of the Cgyptian <ational 2ouncil of +uman Bights. )iven his close
links to the former regime, he &on/t be popular &ith the revolutionaries, but this
shouldn/t detract from his argument. 5n particular, 0outros-)hali &as concerned
&ith the understandable but dangerous parochialism of Cgyptian politics in recent
months. O%he problems of Cgypt cannot be solved in Cgypt. %hey need the
cooperation of other countries,P he told Beuters in an intervie&. O%here are
problems no one is talking about, and these are the urgent ones...Public opinion is
paying more attention to &hat is going on in the West 0ank and )a?a...rather than
paying attention to &hat is going on in the #frican countries &here you have the
source of the <ile. 5f you read all the slogans used by the revolution since 29
8anuary, there has not been a &ord about foreign a3airs.P 5t/s important not to
underestimate the potential severity of these problems no one is talking about.
Whoever does emerge as the ne& po&er in Cgypt &ill have an e(traordinarily
di=cult task ahead of them to keep the country fed, and fed cheaply, because after
decades of +osni Mubarak/s subsidised bread the population is not used to paying
the market price. #s that population gro&s and countries do&nriver start playing
&ith the <ile/s taps, the task &ill only get more di=cult. ;on/t be surprised if this
causes Cgypt/s ne(t revolution.
JDI13 3H
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International resource interests in t!e re'ion ris*s 'lobal
Co""rin'ton 1+
()raeme- QG4, httpKGG&&&.tomorro&today.co.?aG24GQG4Ga-looming-crisis-&orld-
Ph;-0usiness #dminstration b )uest lecturer at top business schools, including the
Hondon 0usiness 1chool, ;uke 2orporate Cducation and the )ordon 5nstitute of
0usiness 1cience."
People go to &ar &hen their &ay of life is threatened. 5 have &ritten before about
the many issues &e face in the coming years that threaten our &ay of life. %hese
include global &armingGclimate change, pollution, pandemics, nuclear bombs,
intelligent machines, genetics, and more. More and more 5 am becoming convinced
that the ne(t maAor regionalGglobal con>ict &ill be over &ater. We are much more
likely to have &ater &ars in the ne(t decade than nuclear ones. #nd 5 &ere to
guess, 5/d say that it is most likely to happen in around <orth Cast #frica. %his is a
region &ith its o&n internal issues. 0ut it also has the foreign involvement of
#merica, 2hina, the Middle Castern #rab nations, and (increasingly" 5srael. Ruite a
potent mi(g Hast &eek, #ddis #baba, Cthiopia hosted the 46th regular meeting of
the 2ouncil of Ministers of Water #3airs of the <ile 0asin countries. 5n the lead up to
the conference, Cthiopia, B&anda, :ganda, %an?ania and Kenya, the @ve countries
that are all upstream of Cgypt and 1udan concluded a &ater-sharing treaty D to the
e(clusion of Cgypt and 1udan. %his has obviously reignited the longstanding dispute
over &ater distribution of the &orld/s longest river in the &orld/s driest continent.
Cgypt is currently the largest consumer of <ile &ater and is the main bene@ciary of
a 4,2, treaty &hich allo&s it to take 99.9 billion cubic metres of &ater each year, or
6QW of the White and 0lue <ile/s >o&. 0y contrast, 1udan is only allo&ed to dra&
46.9 billion cubic metres. .n attaining independence 1udan refused to
ackno&ledge the validity of the <ile &ater treaty and negotiated a ne& bilateral
treaty &ith Cgypt in 4,9,. Kenya, %an?ania and :ganda also e(pressly refused to be
bound by the treaty &hen they attained independence, but have not negotiated a
ne& treaty since then. :nder the 4,2, treaty, Cgypt has po&ers over upstream
proAectsK %he <ile Waters #greement of 4,2, states that no country in the <ile basin
should undertake any &orks on the <ile, or its tributaries, &ithout Cgypt/s e(press
permission. %his gives Cgypt a veto over anything, including the building of dams on
numerous rivers in Kenya, 0urundi, B&anda, %an?ania, Cthiopia, and by implication
Cgypt has control over agriculture, industry and infrastructure and basic services
such as drinking &ater and electricity in these countries. %his is surely untenable.
0ut if the other countries broke the treaty, &ould Cgypt respond &ith forceV 1ince
the late 4,,s, <ile 0asin states have been trying unsuccessfully to develop a
revised frame&ork agreement for &ater sharing, dubbed the <ile 0asin 5nitiative
(<05". 5n May 2,, talks held in Kinshasa broke do&n because Cgypt and 1udan/s
historical &ater $uotas &ere not mentioned in the te(t of the proposed agreement.
Water ministers met again in 8uly 2, in #le(andria, &here Cgypt and 1udan
reiterated their reAection of any agreement that did not clearly establish their
historical share of &ater. %his is an untenable position. :pstream states accuse
Cgypt and 1udan of attempting to maintain an unfair, colonial-era monopoly on the
river. Cgyptian o=cials and analysts, ho&ever, defend their position, pointing out
that Cgypt is much more dependent on the river for its &ater needs than its
upstream neighbours. Cgypt claims that <ile &ater accounts for more than ,9W of
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Cgypt/s total &ater consumption, although they appear to be &orking hard to
reduce both their &ater usage (they/re stopping gro&ing rice, for e(ample" and their
dependence on the <ile.
An"1 E')ptian instabilit)1 re'ional instabilit)1 an" #oo" riots
ris* a petrocollapse t!at coul" brin' on %i"esprea"
#a&ine an" 'lobal econo&ic collapse
8an Lun"ber' F 8anuary 7+11 , independent oil industry analyst
%he stability of countries such as Cgypt and other #rab states has been proven
illusory. When the right geopolitical event in the Persian )ulf -- perhaps connected
to the %unisian, Cgyptian and Xemeni trends no& in play -- interrupts oil supplies by
as much as 4W or more of global demand , the e3ect on the oil market may &ell be
as if +ubbertNs peak oil bell curve became a cli3 that &e have already Aumped o3. #
revolution in 1audi #rabia has been my favorite e(ample for years, in terms of
illustrating &hat can spark a return to the 4,QsN skyrocketing oil prices, panic
buying and hoarding. #s grocery shelves &ill be emptied in a fe& days &hen a maAor
oil supply crunch hits, as the late Matt 1immons reminded us, &hat di3erence does
it make ho& many billions of barrels of crude are really o3 0ra?ilNs coastV <o&, &hen
people didnNt e(pect it but should have, &e see that #rab peoples have indeed been
cha@ng under dictatorship for decades. #rabs, as in most places, have been biding
their time for liberation. Whether certain regions can soon attain it is another
matter, &hen many have far outstripped their besieged ecosystemsN carrying
capacities. 5n Middle Castern countries the &ater and soil situations are generally
poor and getting &orse. 7ood shortage and food riots can >o& from ecological
deterioration, especially as ne& &eather patterns (or non-patterns" have been
increasingly disruptive for agriculture. %his is one argument for activists in #rab
lands to remember there is no liberation or e$uality on a dead planet. #lthough the
Cgyptian uprising or revolution is hundreds of miles removed from the Persian )ulf,
&here 46W of the &orldNs total trade in crude its shipped through the 1trait of
+ormu?, a common spirit of rebellion has spread in the region. 5t can take a sharp
anti-#merican or anti-corporate turn and thus a3ect oil e(ports to the :.1 . 5n 1audi
#rabia &here the monarchy is e(tremely repressive, demonstrators have dared
come out of the &ood&ork after %unisians sent their dictator packing. 5nternational
emphasis on military security in the region has been on huge ships and the Persian
)ulf itself, but numerous facilities on land in #rab countries and nearby nations are
vulnerable to attack and closure . #lso, the 1ue? 2anal sees one million barrels of oil
pass through each day from the Bed 1ea to the Mediterranean (source for @guresK
Cnergy 5nformation #gency, :.1. ;ept. of Cnergy". %he number of separate but
linked oil facilities , e(tent of damage , or days of closure do not have to conform to
some arithmetic model for there to be a massive reaction in the &orld oil market.
%he perception of supply shortage , &ith real instances a3ecting deliveries , is &hat
drives oil prices on the &orld market, much as the stock market sometimes has a
herd mentality. 1o far &e are talking about &hat most observers &ould consider a
temporary oil supply disruption resulting in a price spike. +o&ever, if the disruption
and spike are strong enough, severe e3ects can shut do&n much of the global
economy and simultaneously stop much local activity. Petrocollapse -- the
e(acerbated and lasting failure of the &orld oil market to meet demand , and the
paralysis and collapse of most of the economyNs infrastructure relying on petroleum
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-- does not need to follo& a formula or speci@c pattern of oil industry breakdo&n or
a certain depletion schedule of oil reserves. We &ill only be sure &hen petrocollapse
hits. 0ecause peak oil has been attained, &e can say that the petrocollapse process
has begun and Aust needs a catalyst to tip the &hole economy and trigger famine on
a scale as large as some future climate disaster.
Econo&ic "o%nturn ris*s political unrest1 nuclear terroris&1
unstable proli#eration1 an" interstate conAict afectin'
Qe&p 1+
)eo3rey Kemp, ;irector of Begional 1trategic Programs at %he <i(on 2enter, served
in the White +ouse under Bonald Beagan, special assistant to the president for
national security a3airs and senior director for <ear Cast and 1outh #sian a3airs on
the <ational 1ecurity 2ouncil 1ta3, 7ormer ;irector, Middle Cast #rms 2ontrol
ProAect at the 2arnegie Cndo&ment for 5nternational Peace, 24, %he Cast Moves
WestK 5ndia, 2hina, and #sia/s )ro&ing Presence in the Middle Cast, p. 2FF-!
%he second scenario, called Mayhem and 2haos, is the opposite of the @rst scenario-
everything that can go &rong does go &rong. %he &orld economic situation
&eakens rather than strengthens, and 5ndia, 2hina, and 8apan su3er a maAor
reduction in their gro&th rates, further &eakening the global economy. #s a result,
energy demand falls and the price of fossil fuels plummets, leading to a @nancial
crisis for the energy-producing states, &hich are forced to cut back dramatically on
e(pansion programs and social &elfare. %hat in turn leads to political unrestK and
nurtures di3erent radical groups, including, but not limited to, 5slamic e(tremists.
%he internal stability of some countries is challenged, and there are more Ofailed
states.P Most serious is the collapse of the democratic government in Pakistan and
its takeover by Muslim e(tremists, &ho then take possession of a large number of
nuclear &eapons. %he danger of &ar bet&een 5ndia and Pakistan increases
signi@cantly. 5ran, al&ays &orried about an e(tremist Pakistan, e(pands and
&eaponi?es its nuclear program. %hat further enhances nuclear proliferation in the
Middle Cast, &ith 1audi #rabia, %urkey, and Cgypt Aoining 5srael and 5ran as nuclear
states. :nder these circumstances, the potential for nuclear terrorism increases,
and the possibility of a nuclear terrorist attack in either the Western &orld or in the
oil-producing states may lead to a further devastating collapse of the &orld
economic market, &ith a tsunami-like impact on stability. 5n this scenario, maAor
disruptions can be e(pected, &ith dire conse$uences for t&o-thirds of the planet/s
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U =ile , erroris&
=ile basin conAict ris*s 'lobal econo&ic collapse1 &assi$e star$ation an"
transnational terroris&
Xoussef +. Aboul-Enein 4G4G7+17 is a :.1. <avy Medical 1ervice 2orps
2ommander, Middle Cast 7oreign #rea .=cer, and is author of OMilitant 5slamist
5deologyK :nderstanding the )lobal %hreat,P published by <aval 5nstitute Press.
%+C 2:H%:BC #<; 2.<7H52% BC*5CW <ile 0asin 2on>ictK Perspectives on Water
1haring, 7ood 1hortages, 2ivil Wars and %errorism 2;B Xoussef +. #boul-Cnein, M12,
:.1. <avy
Water resource issues are among those that preoccupy the ten nations that share
the <ile, kno&n as riparian (those that share a river or rivers" nations as &ell as its
tributaries, and lakes. #ll these <ile riparian nations are e(periencing massive
population gro&th, &hile other nations like Cthiopia and :ganda are emerging from
decades of civil &ar and have a driving desire to e(ploit &ater resources &ithin their
national borders. +o&ever, Cthiopian and :gandan proAects along its rivers and
lakes, if left unchecked, can in>uence 1udanese and Cgyptian &ater levels along the
<ile. %o say that crisis along the <ile is inevitable is too simplistic. #lthough there is
literature that supports the vie& of a future &ar over the <ile, the reality is much
more comple(. 5t features a history of cooperation on some fronts, covert blocking
of @nancing on others, outright support for revolutionary movements, and blatant
threats of &ar mainly bet&een Cgypt, 1udan and Cthiopia. What is clear is that the
global economy and the :nited 1tates cannot a3ord a con>ict that @nds the #frican
nations bordering the Bed 1ea in chaos. %his could come in the form of direct
hostilities bet&een Cgypt and Cthiopia, or famine that drives &hole populations to
desperate measures along the Bed 1ea coast that could feature an increase of
piracy along these coastlines as a means of survival. # destabili?ed <ile 0asin could
in addition o3er opportunities for transnational terrorist net&orks. <one of the
literature on con>ict among the <ile riparian states focuses on the &ay
transnational terrorist groups could interAect themselves into con>icts over &ater
sharing. %his study &ill attempt to introduce al-Raida a=liates into the comple(ities
of potential future con>icts among <ile states. #l-Raida a=liates in Cast #frica, like
al-1habab, not only operate in 1omalia, but e(ploit the border regions bet&een
Kenya and 1omalia as &ell. #yman al-Za&ahiri, the al-Raida deputy, has used 1udan
as a launching point to conduct terrorism in his native Cgypt.]4^ 5nstability along the
eleven riparian states of the <ile basin o3ers pockets in &hich al-Raida or its
a=liates can establish a presence. #merica/s military must spend time debating and
learning about the factors that can unite the countries of the <ile 0asin, as &ell as
divide them. %hese include historic and religious factors that have dominated the
debate on both the conscious and subconscious levels, especially bet&een Cgypt,
1udan and Cthiopia.
erroris& causes extinction , "ra%s in 8ussia an" C!ina
A)son in 1+
Bobert, Professor of 1trategic 1tudies and ;irector of the 2entre for 1trategic
1tudiesK <e& Zealand at the *ictoria :niversity of Wellington1 O#fter a %errorist
<uclear #ttackK Cnvisaging 2atalytic C3ects,P 1tudies in 2on>ict b %errorism, *olume
FF, 5ssue Q, 8uly, #vailable .nline to 1ubscribing 5nstitutions via 5nformaWorld
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# terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear &eapons in response by the country attacked in the @rst
place, &ould not necessarily represent the &orst of the nuclear &orlds imaginable. 5ndeed, t!ere are
reasons to %on"er %!et!er nuclear terroris& s!oul" ever be re'ar"e" as
belonging in the category of truly existential threats. # contrast can be dra&n here &ith the global
catastrophe that &ould come from a massive nuclear e(change bet&een t&o or more of the sovereign states that
possess these &eapons in signi@cant numbers. Cven the &orst terrorism that the t&enty-@rst century might bring
&ould fade into insigni@cance alongside considerations of &hat a general nuclear &ar &ould have &rought in the
2old War period. #nd it must be admitted that as long as the maAor nuclear &eapons states have hundreds and
even thousands of nuclear &eapons at their disposal, there is al&ays the possibility of a truly a&ful nuclear
e(change taking place precipitated entirely by state possessors themselves. But these t&o nuclear &orlds'a non-
state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate nuclear e(change'are not necessarily separable. 5t is Aust
possible that some sort of terrorist attack, and especially an act o# nuclear terroris&1 coul"
precipitate a c!ain o# e$ents lea"in' to a &assi$e exc!an'e o# nuclear
%eapons b et%een t%o or &ore of the states that possess them. 5n this conte(t, today/s and
tomorro&/s terrorist groups might assume the place allotted during the early 2old War years to ne& state
possessors of small nuclear arsenals &ho &ere seen as raising the risks of a catalytic nuclear &ar bet&een the
superpo&ers started by third parties. %hese risks &ere considered in the late 4,9s and early 4,Es as concerns
gre& about nuclear proliferation, the so-called nh4 problem. 5t may re$uire a considerable amount of imagination to
depict an especially plausible situation &here an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massive inter-state
nuclear &ar. 7or e(ample, in the event of a terrorist nuclear attack on the :nited 1tates, it might &ell be &ondered
Aust ho& Bussia andGor 2hina could plausibly be brought into the picture, not least because they seem unlikely to be
@ngered as the most obvious state sponsors or encouragers of terrorist groups. %hey &ould seem far too
responsible to be involved in supporting that sort of terrorist behavior that could Aust as easily threaten them as
&ell. 1ome possibilities, ho&ever remote, do suggest themselves. 7or e(ample, ho& might the :nited 1tates react if
it &as thought or discovered that the @ssile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Bussian
stocks,! and if for some reason Mosco& denied any responsibility for nuclear la(ityV %he correct attribution of that
nuclear material to a particular country might not be a case of science @ction given the observation by Michael May
et al. that &hile the debris resulting from a nuclear e(plosion &ould be Ospread over a &ide area in tiny fragments,
its radioactivity makes it detectable, identi@able and collectable, and a &ealth of information can be obtained from
its analysisK the e=ciency of the e(plosion, the materials used and, most important g some indication of &here the
nuclear material came from.P!4 #lternatively, i# t!e act of nuclear terrorism ca&e as a co&plete
surprise, and #merican o=cials refused to believe that a terrorist group &as fully responsible (or responsible at
all" suspicion %oul" s!i#t i&&e"iatel) to state possessors ( 8ulin' out
Western all) countries like the :nited Kingdom and 7rance, and probably 5srael and 5ndia as &ell,
authorities in Was!in'ton %oul" be le#t %it! a $er) s!ort list consistin' o#
=ort! Qorea, perhaps Iran if its program continues, and possibly ;a*istan. 0ut at &hat stage &ould
8ussia an" C!ina be de@nitely ruled out in this high stakes game of nuclear 2luedoV 5n particular, if the act
of nuclear terrorism occurred a'ainst a bac*"rop o# existin' tension in Was!in'ton:s
relations %it! 8ussia an"Gor C!ina, and at a time &hen threats had already been traded bet&een
these maAor po&ers, %oul" o9cials an" political lea"ers not be te&pte" to
assu&e t!e %ors tV .f course, the chances of this occurring &ould only seem to increase if the :nited
1tates &as already involved in some sort of limited armed con>ict &ith Bussia andGor 2hina, or if they &ere
confronting each other from a distance in a pro(y &ar, as unlikely as these developments may seem at the present
time. !e re$erse might &ell appl) too> s!oul" a nuclear terrorist attac* occur in
8ussia or C!ina during a period of heightened tension or even limited con>ict &ith the :nited 1tates,
coul" Mosco% an" Bei/in' resist t!e pressures that might rise "o&esticall) to
consi"er t!e United States as a possible perpetrator or encourager of the attackV
Was!in'ton:s earl) response to a terrorist nuclear attac* on its o&n soil might also
raise t!e possibilit) o# an un%ante" (and nuclear aided" con#rontation &ith Bussia
andGor 2hina. 7or e(ample1 in t!e noise an" con#usion "urin' t!e i&&e"iate
a#ter&at! o# t!e terrorist nuclear attac* 1 t!e U(S( presi"ent &i'!t be
expecte" to place t!e countr):s ar&e" #orces1 inclu"in' its nuclear
arsenal1 on a !i'!er sta'e o# alert ( In suc! a tense en$iron&ent1 %!en
care#ul plannin' runs up a'ainst t!e #riction o# realit), it is Aust possible that
Mosco% an"Mor C!ina &i'!t &ista*enl) rea" t!is as a si'n o# U(S(
intentions to use force (and possibly nuclear #orce@ a'ainst t!e& ( In t!at
situation1 t!e te&ptations to pree&pt suc! actions &i'!t 'ro %, although it must
be admitted that any preemption &ould probably still meet &ith a devastating response. #s part of its initial
response to the act of nuclear terrorism (as discussed earlier" Was!in'ton &i'!t "eci"e to or"er
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a si'ni2cant con$entional ?or nuclear@ retaliator) or "isar&in' attac*
a'ainst t!e lea"ers!ip o# t!e terrorist 'roup an"Mor states seen to support
t!at 'roup. ;epending on the identity and especially the location of these targets, 8ussia an"Gor
C!ina &i'!t interpret suc! action as being far too close for their comfort, and potentially as an
in#rin'e&ent on t!eir sp!eres o# inAuence an" even on their so$erei'nt). .ne far-
fetched but perhaps not impossible scenario might stem from a Audgment in Washington that some of the main
aiders and abetters of the terrorist action resided some&here such as 2hechnya, perhaps in connection &ith &hat
#llison claims is the O2hechen insurgents/ g long-standing interest in all things nuclear.P!2 #merican pressure on
that part of the &orld &ould almost certainly raise alarms in Mosco& that might re$uire a degree of advanced
consultation from Washington that the latter found itself unable or un&illing to provide. %here is also the $uestion of
ho& other nuclear-armed states respond to the act of nuclear terrorism on another member of that special club. 5t
could reasonably be e(pected that follo&ing a nuclear terrorist attack on the :nited 1tates, both Bussia and 2hina
&ould e(tend immediate sympathy and support to Washington and &ould &ork alongside the :nited 1tates in the
1ecurity 2ouncil. 0ut there is Aust a chance, albeit a slim one, &here the support of Bussia andGor 2hina is less
automatic in some cases than in others. 7or e(ample, &hat &ould happen if the :nited 1tates &ished to discuss its
right to retaliate against groups based in their territoryV 5f, for some reason, Washington found the responses of
Bussia and 2hina deeply under&helming, (neither Ofor us or against usP" might it also suspect that they secretly
&ere in cahoots &ith the group, increasing (again perhaps ever so slightly" the chances of a maAor e(change. 5f the
terrorist group had some connections to groups in Bussia and 2hina, or e(isted in areas of the &orld over &hich
Bussia and 2hina held s&ay, and if Washington felt that Mosco& or 0eiAing &ere placing a curiously modest level of
pressure on them, &hat conclusions might it then dra& about their culpabilityV 5f Washington decided to use, or
decided to threaten the use of, nuclear &eapons, the responses of Bussia and 2hina &ould be crucial to the chances
of avoiding a more serious nuclear e(change. %hey might surmise, for e(ample, that &hile the act of nuclear
terrorism &as especially heinous and demanded a strong response, the response simply had to remain belo& the
nuclear threshold. 5t &ould be one thing for a non-state actor to have broken the nuclear use taboo, but an entirely
di3erent thing for a state actor, and indeed the leading state in the international system, to do so. 5f Bussia and
2hina felt su=ciently strongly about that prospect, there is then the $uestion of &hat options &ould lie open to
them to dissuade the :nited 1tates from such actionK and as has been seen over the last several decades, the
central dissuader of the use of nuclear &eapons by states has been the threat of nuclear retaliation. 5f some readers
@nd this simply too fanciful, and perhaps even o3ensive to contemplate, it may be informative to reverse the
tables. Bussia, &hich possesses an arsenal of thousands of nuclear &arheads and that has been one of the t&o
most important trustees of the non-use taboo, is subAected to an attack of nuclear terrorism. 5n response, Mosco&
places its nuclear forces very visibly on a higher state of alert and declares that it is considering the use of nuclear
retaliation against the group and any of its state supporters. +o& &ould Washington vie& such a possibilityV Would
it really be keen to support Bussia/s use of nuclear &eapons, including outside Bussia/s traditional sphere of
in>uenceV #nd if not, &hich seems $uite plausible, &hat options &ould Washington have to communicate that
displeasureV 5f 2hina had been the victim of the nuclear terrorism and seemed likely to retaliate in kind, &ould the
:nited 1tates and Bussia be happy to sit back and let this occurV In t!e c!ar'e" at&osp!ere
i&&e"iatel) a#ter a nuclear terrorist attac*1 !o% %oul" t!e attac*e"
countr) respon" to pressure #ro& ot!er &a/or nuclear po%ers not to
respon" in *in"V !e p!rase 3!o% "are t!e) tell us %!at to "o4
i&&e"iatel) sprin's to &in"( So&e &i'!t even go so far as to interpret this
concern as a tacit #or& o# sympathy or support #or t!e terrorists( !is &i'!t
not !elp the chances of nuclear restraint.
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U =ile , <enoci"eMCi$ War
!is %ill lea" to repeate" ci$il %ars1 interstate %ars1 an"
Keenan 0erar 7+11 <ile WaterK ;evelopment, Cnvironment, and 2on>ict Pit?er
2ollege, 2laremont, 2alifornia
%he <ile Biver basin is rife &ith violent con>ict. #t @rst glance many of these
instances appear to have little to do &ith <ile &ater. +o&ever, these disputes have
direct conse$uences for &ater use and contribute to the debacle over &ater
delegation. %hey have the potential to e(acerbate e(isting tensions and spur ne&
con>icts. %here are t&o situations that illustrate these points &ellK ethnic tensions in
B&andan and the 1outhern 1udanese independence movement. 5n addition, Cgypt/s
threats of violent retaliation must be e(amined. Cthnic tensions in B&anda reached
a clima( during the 4,,! genocide &hen an 6F estimated one million %utsis and
moderate +utus lost their lives. %hough colonial baggage can be blamed for much
of the ethnic tension that divided the population, a gro&ing number of analysts and
historians point to co3ee, B&anda/s monocrop, as having played a large role as &ell
(1hah, 29". # fall in the &orld co3ee price in the late 4,6s led to the implosion of
the B&andan economy. ;uring this time, the +utu government placed the blame on
%utsi landholders and politicians &ho, up until B&andan independence, had
governed the country thanks to 0elgian favoritism. %his rhetoric continued to
escalate as the B&andan economy &orsened, culminating in the 4,,! genocide.
+o& does this relate to the issue of <ile &aterV %ake for e(ample, the hypothetical,
but realistic scenario of a future &ater shortage crisis in the <ile 0asin. # steep loss
in revenue resulting from failed or limited crops could easily result in a B&andan-like
scenario. %here are a series of Cast #frican nations, &hich have similarly intense
ethnical fragmentation to that of B&anda. %heses include :ganda, the ;emocratic
Bepublic of 2ongo, 1udan, and Cthiopia. 5n the event of a severe drought and given
the lack of a plan to deal &ith such a problem, it is completely plausible that ethnic
violence might again break out. # second potential >ash point stems from the civil
&ar in 1udan. .n 8anuary ,, 244 1outhern 1udan &ill hold a referendum to
determine its political future. Cither it &ill continue to be part of the greater 1udan
or it &ill secede, becoming a sovereign nation. %he referendum comes after t&o civil
&ars, genocide, and untold human su3ering. 8ust a matter of months before the
referendum, the outcome remains unpredictable by the actions of the 1udanese
government and the presence of marauding 6! rebel groups. %he result of this
election could create an eleventh riparian state, the political implications of &hich
&ill be discussed in detail. 7or no& it is &orth mentioning that the creation of a ne&
1outhern 1udanese state might provide the impetus to force 1udan and Cgypt to
face the fact they must revise their current treaties governing &ater rights.
+o&ever, the perception of voting irregularities, voter disenfranchisement, or a less
than clear mandate, could lead to rene&ed violence, distracting the 1udanese,
north and south, from contributing to a resolution of <ile &ater issues. %he presence
of violent and unpredictable rebel groups also complicates the referendum/s
prospects. .f most recent concern is the Hord/s Besistance #rmy (HB#". %his group
has e(isted for over a $uarter of a century &ith a primary goal of overthro&ing the
:ganda government. +o&ever, their chances for success have deteriorated over
time. #ny popular support they may have enAoyed has diminish over time starting
&ith their use of guerrilla tactics, follo&ed by their abduction of children to serve as
soldiers, and their habit of random killings, all of &hich resulted in their e(ile far
JDI13 D3
BeBo Lab Water Af
from :ganda &ith little to no political obAectives or in>uence. %oday the HB# @nds
itself in south&estern 1udan and human rights organi?ations fear it may attempt to
sabotage the coming referendum to grab international attention. %here have also
been allegation as recently as in 26, that 1udan/s central government actually
armed the HB# &ith the goal of destabili?ing the 1outhern 1udanese regions. %oday,
ho&ever, the 1udanese government o=cially condemns acts of violence
perpetrated by the HB# (.nyiego, 24". %he lesson of these e(amples is that
hunger, economic stresses, and political uncertainty can e(acerbate e(isting
divisions. %hese in turn can lead to violent con>icts 69 that have the potential to
alter the political situation in the <ile basin. .ngoing con>ict in 1udan has also
a3ected the construction of the 8onglei 2anal proAect. %his proAect &as intended to
divert the &aters of the White <ile around the s&amps of the 1udd. #s discussed
previously, it is estimated that the 1udd contains 9W of the White <ile/s &ater >o&
at any given time and its large surface area is responsible a large amount of &ater
loss through evaporation (Hamberts, 2,". 2onstruction of the diversion canal
began in 4,6 but came to a halt Aust three years later due to the rene&ed violence
associated &ith 1udan/s intensifying civil &ar. %o date, the proAect is still on hold and
only t&o thirds @nished (S8onglei 2anal ProAectP- SWater Pro@le of 1udanS". 5f peace is
restored in the south of 1udan it is unclear &hether construction on the 8onglei
2anal &ould resume. # number of the obstacles, &hich previously hindered the
proAect, &ould no longer e(ist. Cnergy costs for the drilling machines could be
covered by the recent discovery of oil in the 0entiu region. %his region has its o&n
separate referendum and may or may not Aoin 1outhern 1udanese secession. 5n
addition there is an anticipated return of young adults from the north &here many
have gained e(perience in the construction industry (#bdel-)hani, 24". +o&ever,
the government of 1outhern 1udan has e(pressed reservations about reviving the
proAect, citing adverse political, economic, social and environmental e3ects
(1aNoudi, 24". %his is a perfect e(ample of a proAect halted by con>ict that faces
an uncertain future due to changing political realities and the possibility of rene&ed
con>ict. .n May , t&o senior Cgyptian government o=cials stated that their country
reserves the right to take &hatever steps it deems necessary to safeguard its share
of <ile &ater, even if that re$uires all out &ar (Kiggundu, 24". %his saber rattling
is, of course, 6E in retaliation contested development proAects and the most recent
<05 agreement. Cgypt of course claims that these potential revisions threaten
Cgyptian and 1udanese &ater security. %he threats are often vague and open to
interpretation (#shine, 24" ho&ever they fuel the fear of an escalation from
political disagreement to violent confrontation. %o date Cgypt has not openly acted
on their threats, +o&ever, as mentioned in the Cthiopia case-study, the sponsoring
of insurgency groups is the perhaps the most likely form that retaliation &ould take
and such support is hard to trace (Mhango, 24".
BeBo Lab Water Af
U =ile , Iran Ce'e&on)
E')pt instabilit) ris*s re'ional instabilit)1 'lobal econo&ic an" tra"e
"isruption1 Iranian !e'e&on) an" conAict o$er Israel
)regory B. Cople) 7+11 (the Cditor-in-2hief and founder (in 4,Q2" of the
;efense b 7oreign #3airs group of publications. +e is founder (in 4,62, &ith ;r
1tefan %. Possony" and President of the 5nternational 1trategic 1tudies #ssociation
(511#", the global non-governmental organi?ation (<)." for senior professional
o=cials involved &orld&ide in the formulation of national and international strategic
policy, heavily involved in classi@ed strategic analysis and operations for
governments, &orld&ide, a visiting professor and lecturer at a number of
institutions around the &orld, currently including the Curopean 2ultural 2entre, of
;elphi, )reece- the :niversity of 0elgrade- 5ntercollege, in <icosia, 2yprus- and the
:niversity of Western #ustralia" 7ebruary 244 O1trategic rami@cations of the
Cgyptian crisisP httpKGG&&&.asmarino.comGne&s-analysisG,E-strategic-
5n the preface to the ;efense b 7oreign #3airs +andbook on Cgypt, in 4,,9, 5 notedK
5f Cgypt remains strong, and in all senses a po&er in its regional conte(ts, then
&orld events &ill move in one direction. 5f CgyptNs strength is undermined, then
&orld events (and not merely those of the Middle Cast" &ill move along a far more
uncertain and violent path. 5t is signi@cant that Cgypt began to fail to be strong,
internally, &ithin a fe& years of that 4,,9 book. 5t became less resilient as Mubarak
became more isolated and the inspiration o3ered by 1adat began to erode. %his
resulted in the rise in Cgypt of the 5slamists &ho had killed 1adat, and the gro&ing
empo&erment of the veteran 5slamists from the #fghan con>ict, including such
@gures as .sama bin Haden (&ho had spent considerable time living in Cgypt", and
#yman al-Za&ahiri, et al. %he reality &as that MubarakNs management-style
presidency could not o3er the re$uisite hope because hope translates to meaning
and identity to Cgyptian society as it &as transitioning from poverty and
unemployment to gradually gro&ing &ealth. What are the areas of strategic
concern, then, as Cgypt transformsV %he follo&ing are some considerationsK i
1ecurity and stability of 1ue? 2anal sea tra=cK Cven temporary disruption, or the
threat of disruptions, to tra=c through the 1ue? 2anal &ould disturb global trade,
given that the 2anal and the associated 1:MC; pipeline (&hich takes crude oil
north from the Bed 1ea to the Mediterranean" are responsible for signi@cant
volumes of &orld trade, including energy shipments. %hreats of delays or closure of
the 2anal andGor the 1:MC;, or hints of increased danger to shipping, &ould
signi@cantly increase insurance costs on trade, and &ould begin to have shippers
consider moving 1ue? tra=c, once again, to the longer and more e(pensive 2ape of
)ood +ope sea&ay. i ;isruption of <ile &aters negotiations and matters relatingK
CgyptNs support for the emerging independence of 1outh 1udan &as based on that
ne& state s control over a considerable stretch of the White <ile, at a time &hen
Cgypt has been attempting to dominate ne& treaty discussions regarding <ile
(White and 0lue <ile" &ater usage and riparian rights. #lready, Cgyptian ability to
negotiate &ith the <ile Biver states has entered an hiatus, and unless the Cgyptian
)overnment is able to re-form $uickly around a strong, regionally-focused model,
Cgypt &ill have lost all momentum on securing &hat it feels is its dominance over
<ile &ater controls. 5n the short term, the Cgyptian situation could provide tremors
into northern and 1outh 1udan, and in 1outh 1udan this &ill mean that the :.1., in
particular, could be asked to step up support activities to that countryNs
independence transition. 1uch a sudden loss of CgyptNs <ile position &ill radically
BeBo Lab Water Af
a3ect its long-standing pro(y &ar to keep Cthiopia &hich controls the head&aters
and >o& of the 0lue <ile, the <ileNs biggest volume input landlocked and
strategically impotent. %his means that CgyptNs ability to block #frican :nion (#:"
and #rab Heague denial of sovereignty recognition of the Bepublic of 1omaliland &ill
decline or disappear for the time being. #lready CgyptNs in>uence enabled an
5slamist takeover of 1omaliland, possibly moving that state to&ard re-integration
&ith the anomic 1omalia state. C$ually importantly, the interregnum in Cgypt &ill
mean a cessation of 2airoNs support for Critrea and the pro(y &ar &hich Critrea
facilitates but &hich others, particularly Cgypt, pay against Cthiopia through the
arming, logistics, training, etc., of anti-Cthiopian groups such as the .romo
Hiberation 7ront (.H7", the .gaden <ational Hiberation 7ront (.<H7", etc. .verall
security of the Bed 1ea states and 1H.2K Cgypt has been vital to sustaining the
tenuous viability of the state of Critrea, because 2airo regarded Critrean loyalty as a
key means of sustaining Cgyptian po&er proAection into the Bed 1ea (and ensuring
the security of the Bed 1eaG1ue? 1ea Hane of 2ommunication", and to deny such
access to 5srael. #bsent Cgyptian support, the Critrean )overnment of President
5sayas #fe&erke &ill begin to feel its isolation and economic deprivation, and may
&ell, on its o&n, accelerate ne& pressures for con>ict &ith Cthiopia to distract local
populations from the gro&ing deprivation in the country. i %he 5srael situationK #
protracted interregnum in Cgypt, or a move by Cgypt to&ard 5slamist or populist
governance could bring about a decline in the stability of the Cgypt-5srael peace
agreement, and provide an opening of the border &ith the +amas-controlled )a?a
region of the Palestinian #uthority lands. %his &ould contribute to the ability of 5ran
to escalate pressures on 5srael, and not only further isolate 5srael, but also isolate
8ordan, and, to an e(tent, 1audi #rabia. %he threat of direct military engagement
bet&een 5srael and Cgypt may remain lo&, but a move by Cgypt a&ay from being a
predictable part of the regional peace system &ould, by default, accelerate the
gro&th of the 5ran-1yria-+i?bullah-+amas ability to strategically threaten 5srael.
Moreover, the transforming situation &ould also inhibit the West 0ank Palestinian
#uthority )overnment. i Castern Mediterranean stabilityK %he instability, and the
possible move to&ard greater 5slamist in>uence, in Cgypt reinforces the direction
and potential for control of the regional agenda by the 5slamist )overnment of
%urkey. 5t is certainly possible that the transformed mood of the Castern
Mediterranean could inhibit e(ternal investment in the development of the maAor
gas @elds o3 the 5sraeli and 2yprus coasts. %his may be a gradual process, but the
overall sense of the stability of the region particularly if 1ue? 2anal closure or de
facto closure by any avoidance of it by shippers due to an 5slamist government in
2airo &ould be Aeopardi?ed if the area is no longer the &orld s most important trade
route. i 5n>uence on 5ranNs positionK 5t should be considered that any decline in
CgyptNs ability to act as the maAor in>uence on the #rab &orld enhances 5ranNs de
facto position of authority in the greater Middle Cast. 5t is true that CgyptNs position
has been in decline in this regard for the past decade and more, and that even
1audi #rabia has &orked, successfully to a degree, to compete &ith Cgypt for
regional (ieK #rab" leadership. Without strong Cgyptian leadership, ho&ever, there is
no real counter&eight to 5ranNs ability to intimidate. ;uring the period of the 1hahNs
leadership in 5ran (until the revolution of 4,Q, and the 1hahNs departure, ultimately
to his death and burial, ironically, in 2airo", 5ran and Cgypt &ere highly compatible
strategic partners, stabili?ing the region to a large degree. %he 1hahNs @rst &ife &as
Cgyptian. #bsent a strong Cgypt (and, in reality, &e have been absent a strong
Cgypt for some years", &e can e(pect gro&ing 5ranian boldness in supporting such
groups as those @ghting for the so-called 5slamic Bepublic of Castern #rabia. i :.1.
interestsK # stable Cgypt is critical for the maintenance of :.1. strategic interests,
BeBo Lab Water Af
given its control of the 1ue?- its partnership in the peace process &ith 5srael- and so
on. Why, then, &ould the 0arack .bama administration indicate that it &ould
support the masses in the streets of Cgyptian cities at this point. %here is no
$uestion that Washington has supported moves to get Mubarak to provide for a
smooth succession over recent yearsK that &ould have been bene@cial for Cgypt as
&ell as for the :.1. 0ut for the :.1. to actively no& support as 0arack .bama has
done the street over orderly transition of po&er lacks strategic sense. 5t is true that
the 1tate ;ept., and even the strategically-challenged *ice President 8oe 0iden,
have urged caution on the Cgyptian people, but .bama has e3ectively contradicted
that approach, as he did in %unisia, &here he literally supported the street revolution
against its president earlier in 8anuary. 5f Cgypt moves to anti-Western, anti-:.1.
governance, the :.1. &ill be re$uired to re-think its entire strategic approach to the
Middle Cast, #frica, and the proAection of po&er through the Castern Mediterranean
and into the 5ndian .cean. 5t &ould give a strong boost of importance to the :.1.
Paci@c 7leet, &hich is responsible for :.1. proAection the 5ndian .cean. 2C<%2.M
(2entral 2ommand" &ould need to be re-thought, as &ould :1#7B52.M (:.1. #frican
2ommand". . i 5mpact on the :.1. positions in 5ra$, #fghanistan, and PakistanK %he
loss of Cgypt and the $uestionable ability &hich the :.1. could have over proAection
through the 1ue? 2anal if it came to that &ould certainly impact :.1. ability to
support the @nal military operations it has in 5ra$, and #fghanistan. # loss (or
Aeopardi?ing" of :.1. military access via Cgyptian-controlled areas such as the Bed
1eaG1ue? &ould absolutely fragment the &ay in &hich the :.1. can proAect po&er
globally. Cven the accession of an 5slamist state in Cgypt, as opposed to closure of
the 1ue? 2anal, &ould achieve much of this. What is clear is that the :.1. did not
ade$uately prepare for the end of the Mubarak era, even though it &as absolutely
obvious that it &as coming. <o&, only by luck &ill the :.1. see the Cgyptian armed
forces re-assert control over Cgypt and introduce a ne& generation of leadership to
bridge the transition until the re-emergence of a charismatic leader. i 2oncern over
governance transition in republican dynastiesK %he recent street moves against
states &ith protracted ieK essentially against normal constitutional viability po&er
being held by autocratic leaders over long periods has become a clear message that
Western democracies succeed by arranging orderly transitions of po&er, &hether
among their constitutional monarchs as heads-of-state, or among their elected
governments. 1tates &hich rise and fall &ith each successive and uneasy often
violent transfer of po&er from one leader to the ne(t, or in &hich autocrats attempt
to impose their children as their successors &ithout the legitimacy of a nationally-
evolved monarchy or tradition, are in increasing peril as to their long-term stability.
1yria, for e(ample, in the region continues to founder although it achieved the
transfer of one #ssad to the ne(t, but it does not prosper. Hibya, #lgeria, Cthiopia,
Critrea, Xemen, and <orth Korea, for e(ample, all must consider that e(tended
governance &ithout legitimate options for the future encourages decline and
instability. i 5ssues of military technology and e$uipment relationsK #ny move by
Cgypt a&ay from its pro-:.1. position including, and particularly, the prospect of an
administration headed by self-styled opposition leader Mohamed Clbaradei, &ould
result in a maAor compromise of :.1. military technology. %he Cgyptian armed forces
have a maAor defense supply relationship &ith the :.1., particularly &ith high-pro@le
systems such as late-model Hockheed Martin 7-4E2G; 0lock 9G92 @ghters, M4#4
main battle tanks, #+-E!#G; #pache and #pache Hongbo& attack helicopters, :+-E
0lack +a&k helicopters, a &ide range of surface- and air-mounted missile systems,
and so on. %he reality is that further north in the Mediterranean, the defense supply
relationship &ith %urkey is already compromised, but the :.1. )overnment &ill not
recogni?e that. 7irstly, the supply relationship &ith %urkey means that the
BeBo Lab Water Af
technology itself may be compromised to other states (5ran, Bussia", to some
e(tent, and no& &ill almost certainly not be used to support :.1.G<#%. initiatives. 5n
Cgypt, a similar situation could prevail if the armed forces do not take control and
e(clude Clbaradei andGor other anti-:.1. 5slamists or populists. President )amal
#bdel <asser &as charismatic and transformative, but not necessarily a leader &ho
delivered a strong ne& architecture to Cgypt. 1adat gradually emerged as
charismatic, and he &as transformative in a very meaningful &ay for the country. 5t
took three decades of MubarakNs invisible presence for so much of 1adatNs vision to
erode, and yet 1adatNs national architecture remains intact if someone &ould be
able to pick up the reins of real leadership. What is signi@cant is that the Cgyptian
Boyal 7amily has not re-emerged from e(ile to o3er some hope of a restoration of
traditional Cgyptian values. 5f the populist and vehemently anti-:.1. ally of 5ran,
Mohamed Clbaradei, sei?es control of the Cgyptian mob because that is his goalK to
position himself at the front of a mob not of his o&n making he &ould certainly re-
introduce a great element of instability to the region, and bolster 5ranNs position.
Cven &ithout directly &orking &ith 5ran, merely by pushing Cgypt into an
investment-averse situation, 5ranNs regional po&er &ould gro&, and Cgypt &ould be
under the grip of a vain and shallo& man far more detrimental to the nationNs long-
term interests even than Mubarak. <ot insigni@cantly, &hen :.1. left-leaning
television ne&s net&ork 2<< intervie&ed and essentially played softly &ith
Clbaradei, the former :< o=cial &as &earing a green tie, meant to be a clear signal
to 5ran and the 5slamists.
Iran !e'e&on) ris*s nuclear %ar
+erbert 5( Lon"on 1+, President Cmeritus of +udson 5nstitute, O%he 2oming 2risis
in the Middle CastP, 8une 2F, httpKGG&&&.hudson.orgGinde(.cfmV
%he gathering storm in the Middle Cast is gaining momentum. War clouds are on the
hori?on and like conditions prior to World War 5 all it takes for e(plosive action to
commence is a trigger. %urkey/s provocative >otilla - often described in .r&ellian
terms as a humanitarian mission - has set in motion a >urry of diplomatic activity,
but if the 5ranians send escort vessels for the ne(t round of %urkish ships, it could
present a casus belli. 5t is also instructive that 1yria is playing a dangerous game
&ith both missile deployment and rearming +e?bollah. #ccording to most public
accounts +e?bollah is sitting on !, long, medium and short range missiles and
1yrian territory has served as a conduit for military material from 5ran since the end
of the 2E Hebanon War. 1hould 1yria move its o&n scuds to Hebanon or deploy its
troops as reinforcement for +e?bollah, a &ider regional &ar &ith 5srael could not be
contained. 5n the backdrop is an 5ran &ith su=cient @ssionable material to produce
a couple of nuclear &eapons. 5t &ill take some time to &eaponi?e missiles, but the
road to that goal is synchroni?ed in green lights since neither diplomacy nor diluted
sanctions can convince 5ran to change course. 5ran is poised to be the hegemon in
the Middle Cast. 5t is increasingly considered the Ostrong horseP as #merican forces
incrementally retreat from the region. Cven 5ra$, ironically, may depend on 5ranian
ties in order to maintain internal stability. 7rom Ratar to #fghanistan all political
eyes are on 5ran. 7or 1unni nations like Cgypt and 1audi #rabia regional strategic
vision is a combination of deal making to o3set the 5ranian 1hia advantage and
attempting to buy or develop nuclear &eapons as a counter &eight to 5ranian
ambition. +o&ever, both of these governments are in a precarious state. 1hould
either fall, all bets are o3 in the Middle Cast neighborhood. 5t has long been said
BeBo Lab Water Af
that the 1unni OtentP must stand on t&o legs, if one, falls, the tent collapses. 1hould
that tent collapse and should 5ran take advantage of that calamity, it could incite a
1unni-1hia &ar. .r feeling its oats and no longer dissuaded by an escalation
scenario &ith nuclear &eapons in to&, &ar against 5srael is a distinct possibility.
+o&ever, implausible it may seem at the moment, the possible annihilation of 5srael
and the prospect of a second holocaust could lead to a nuclear e(change. %he only
&ild card that can change this slide into &arfare is an active :nited 1tates/ policy.
Xet curiously, the :.1. is engaged in both an emotional and physical retreat from the
region. ;espite rhetoric &hich suggests an 5ran &ith nuclear &eapons is intolerable,
it has done nothing to forestall that eventual outcome. ;espite the investment in
blood and treasure to allo& a stable government to emerge in 5ra$, the anticipated
&ithdra&al of :.1. forces has prompted President Maliki to travel to %ehran on a
regular basis. #nd despite historic links to 5srael that gave the :.1. leverage in the
region and a democratic ally, the .bama administration treats 5srael as a national
security albatross that must be disposed of as soon as possible. #s a conse$uence,
the :.1. is perceived in the region as the O&eak horse,P the one that is dangerous to
ride. 5n every Middle Cast capital the &ords Ounreliable and :nited 1tatesP are
linked. %hose seeking a moderate course of action are no& in a distinct minority. #
political vacuum is emerging, one that is not sustainable and one the 5ranian
leadership looks to &ith imperial e(hilaration. 5t is no longer a $uestion of &hether
&ar &ill occur, but rather &hen it &ill occur and &here it &ill break out. %here are
many triggers to ignite the e(plosion, but not many scenarios for containment.
2ould it be a regional &ar in &hich Cgypt and 1audi #rabia &atch from the sidelines,
but secretly &ish for 5sraeli victoryV .r is this a &ar in &hich there aren/t victors,
only devastationV Moreover, should &ar break out, &hat does the :.1. doV %his is a
description far more dire than any in the last century and, even if some believe my
vie& is overly pessimistic, #rab and 8e&, Persian and Cgyptian, Muslim and Maronite
tend to believe in its veracity. %hat is a truly bad sign.
BeBo Lab Water Af
=ile "n Coop
8iparian nations are re/ectin' t!e =ile Basin reat) in #a$or o#
unilateral policies
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
+o&ever, the other riparian nations !a$e expresse" "issatis#action
%it! t!eir current access to =ile %aters( QQ Cthiopia, for e(ample, one of
the &orld/s poorest nations, accounts for more than Q9W of the &ater >o&ing
into the <ile, but con- sumes less than 4W of the <ile/s &ater. Q6 1ince 4,9Q,
Et!iopia !as spo*en o# pursuin' unilateral %ater "e$elop&ent Q, an"
has recently announce" plans to use =ile %ater #or irri'ation( 6
1imilarly, an5ania is #or&ulatin' a W7O(H billion pro/ect to construct a
pipeline %!ic! extracts "rin*in' %ater #ro& t!e =ile. 64 7urther, since
its independence, t!e Qen)an 'o$ern&ent !as state" publicly that it
"oes not reco'ni5e t!e treat)( 62 ;espite such dissatisfaction, the treaty
has remained intact because E')pt !as &a"e it *no%n t!at it %ill
consi"er an) at- te&pt to $iolate t!e treat) as an act o# %ar. 6F 5n
renouncing the treaty, %an?ania/s Minister of Water Besources, Cd&ard
Ho&asa, e(plained its ine$uitable underpinnings by saying, Othe treaties have
been entered into &ithout the consent of the people of the region. %he 0ritish
had no mandate to sign treaties &ith Cgypt on our behalf.P 6! #s outrage
spread throughout <orthern #frica, the Cast #frican press printed editorials
chronicling the inAustice of the treaty as a Ocolonial relic.P 69 +o&ever, Cgypt/s
Minister of Water and 5rrigation, Mahmoud #bu-Zeid, e(- claimed that Oan)
unilateral c!an'e in t!e 1G7G =ile Basin reat) %oul" be a breac! o#
international la%(4 6E Cven though all the riparian nations did not ratify the
treaty, #bu-Zeid/s claim has merit because non-party states are bound by a
provision in an international treaty &hen it rises to the level of international
cus- tomary la& (as the <ile 0asin %reaty has". 6Q #s a result, #or c!an'e to
be efec- ti$e1 it &ust be a'ree" upon collecti$el) %it! all t!e
riparian nations1 inclu"in' E')pt an" Su"an(
JDI13 I+
BeBo Lab Water Af
U =ile , Et!nic ConAict
8esol$in' %ater "isputes is *e) to o$erco&e et!nic tensions
an" pre$ent conAict
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
.ther problems in the area include recurrent "rou'!ts1 conAicts o# interest
ste&&in' #ro& et!nic ri$alries1 4F an" se$ere pollution. 4! 7or e(ample,
La*e Pictoria, the <ile/s maAor source, O!as beco&e t!e toilet #or East A#rica.
People are doing all sorts of things in the lake'including urinating ]and^ passing
stools.P 49 While the <05 has much &ork left to do, Oi# countries s!arin' t!e
%ater%a) are able to rise abo$e t!e !istor)1 t!e po$ert)1 an" t!e conAict
t!at t!reatens cooperati$e en'a'e&ent1 t!e pa)-of &a) be si'ni2cant
econo&ic "e- $elop&ent an" re'ional peace(4 4E %oday, the 4,2, treaty
continues to govern the <ile 0asin as customary inter- national la&. %he <05
represents a momentous step of collective action, but %it!out efecti$e
en#orce&ent &ec!anis&s in place1 it %ill not pre$ent conAict. ;espite
international discussions beginning to form, Cgypt still controls the &ater supply,
tensions remain high, and faced &ith e(treme poverty, disease and drought, ot!er
Basin nations are be'innin' to ta*e unilateral actions to $iolate o# t!e
JDI13 I1
BeBo Lab Water Af
=ile States Mo"el
:1-Me(ico model &ill be applied to the <ile 0asin
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
!e 'eneral contention a&on' international practitioners an"
co&&entators is t!at it is not possible to establis! a 'eneric &o"el
o# %ater la% applicable to all nations. 4!, 6et1 'reat pro'ress can be
&a"e in t!e =ile Basin i# t!e riparian nations supple&ent t!e =BI b)
extractin' #eatures #ro& t!e recent United States'Mexico
ne'otiations, the privati?ation model, and the human rights model. %o
prevent future con>ict, 0asin nations should focus on their common interests
and develop a central institution backed by private funding that has the
po&er to enforce agreements, &hich maintain >e(ible standards of &ater
alloca- tion and $uality.
!e US-Mexico a'ree&ent sets t!e #ra&e%or* #or co&pro&ise
on t!e =ile Basin "ispute , IBWC "ata s!arin' &et!o"s
%oul" be t!e *e) internal #or an) a'ree&ent
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
Xet, the recent ne'otiations bet%een t!e United States an" Mexico do
!a$e positi$e aspects %!ic! can !elp t!e =ile Basin, as &ell as
shortcomings &hich can be improved upon in future <ile negotiations. 7irst,
and &ost i&portantl), Minutes FQ and F6 s!o% an interest o#
increase" collaboration #or bot! coun- tries an" illustrate "iplo&atic
co&pro&ise as a means to tame tensions over inter- national &ater. 49F
C(pressing such a common interest has been the greatest success of the <05
49! and such e3orts must continue to e(pand. <05 C(ecutive ;irector MeraAi
Msuya recogni?ed the accomplishment in saying, Othere has been
tremendous achievement ]since the formation of the <05^. ;eople are no%
tal*- in' openl) about t!e =ile . . . not like it &as ten to @fteen years ago
&hen no one could talk about it.P 499 %he 50W2 also e(poses t&o important
features of an e3ective transboundary &ater agreementK the importance of
sharing data and the need to establish an enforcement institution. !e =ile
nations &ust co&&it to &ore extensi$e "ata- s!arin' &et!o"s t!an
t!e United States an" Mexico "i" %it! t!e IBWC1 %!ic! le#t t!e
responsibilit) o# "ata interpretation to in"i$i"ual 'o$ern&ents( 49E
%his &ill be especially di=cult in <orthern #frica Obecause most basin
countries lack the capacity to share environmental and scienti@c data on the
shared &ater use and development initiatives.P 49Q Since t!e IBWC %as
not #ull) efecti$e in &on- itorin' s!orta'es in binational ri$ers, 496
=ile nations &ust "e$elop a si&ilar insti- tution t!at !as extensi$e
po%ers to s!are "ata and enforce &ater allotments. # maAor problem
JDI13 I7
BeBo Lab Water Af
across most international &ater agreements is that Oapart from the force of
public opinion, t!ere is no efecti$e &onitorin' an" co&pliance s)ste&
to ensure t!at obli'ations assu&e" un"er treaties are en#orce"
%it!in na- tional boun"aries.P 49, Most riparian nations have also had
trouble enforcing in- ternational agreements because they have not clearly
de@ned their &ater boundaries. 4E %he creation of a central institution
similar to the 50W2, but &ith po&ers to interpret data, enforce agreements,
and de@ne boundaries, &ould be a signi@cant step to&ard not only reaching
an agreement today, but also to&ard ensuring the success of future
agreements. 4E4 When creating such an institution, 0asin nations should
follo& recent trends in environmental border management that favor greater
public participation. 4E2 # maAor &eakness of the 4,!! treaty is that it
contains no provision for public consultation, relations, or participation. 4EF
5nternational politics professor 1te- phen P. Mumme noted, O]a^s originally
conceived, then, the 50W2 &as to be a secretive, hierarchical, and other&ise
narro& body . . . ]&ith an^ e(clusivist, priv- ileged approach to border &ater
management.P 4E! <ile nations could avoid such a do&nfall by creating a
representative body to assess progress to&ard stated goals and strategies.
4E9 1uch active public participation Ois re$uired to maintain the legitimacy
and strength of regulatory and management bodies.P
!e US-Mexico &o"el creates inter"epen"ence sol$in' conAict
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
#s proponents for the privati?ation model profess, funding &ill be a maAor
hurdle for the poverty-stricken basin nations. While avoiding the risk of
deepen- ing ine$ualities inherent in the full scale privati?ation model, <orth
#frican countries should take advantage of the model/s aggressive funding
procedures. #dopting a large-scale e3ort to attract @nances from abroad is a
fundamental necessity for poor nations. 0y building international trust and
identifying similar interests &ith other nations, obtaining such funds is a
realistic goal. Loo*in' at t!e United States an" Mexico #or exa&ple1
3"ue to t!e proxi&it) o# t!e t%o states1 en$iron&ental !a5ar"s
create" in Mexico b) a lac* o# in#rastructure "i- rectl) afect bot!
si"es o# t!e bor"erB t!ere#ore1 t!e United States !as a $este" interest
in assistin' Mexico %it! %ater suppl) an" treat&ent #acilities(4 4Q!
Wit! so &an) inter"epen"ent nations on t!e =ile a&i" serious
"rou'!t1 pollution1 an" po$ert) concerns1 t!e =BI can appeal to
si&ilar international interests. 0y mid 2!, the <05 had already raised
`4F million from donors. 4Q9 %he solutions proposed herein &ill allo& the
<ile 0asin to e3ectively deal &ith problems of population gro&th,
urbani?ation, poverty, political instability, and pollution. 7le(ible standards
designed to evolve &ith time are apt to accom- modate shifting population
and urbani?ation trends. 5ncreased international fund- ing &ill supplement
insu=cient infrastructural budgets and minimum standards of $uality &ill
raise the level of life at the poverty line and reduce pollution. Hastly, by
strengthening binational forums and implementing an inter-govern- mental
institution &ith the po&er to enforce agreements, cooperati$e eforts %ill
JDI13 I3
BeBo Lab Water Af
ulti&atel) alle$iate political instabilit) b) #osterin' trust an"
co&&unication t!rou'!out t!e re'ion.
=ile Basin %ill &o"el t!e US-Mexico ne'otiation process , I# it
#ails1 conAict %ill be e$en %orse
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
#lthough conAict o$er t!e =ile %aters &a) li*el) escalate to %ar#are,
if man- aged correctly, t!e international &ater s!orta'e can ser$e as a
pat!%a) to peace. 4QE 0y coming together, countries can build trust and
prevent con>ict. 4QQ %he <ile nations must use &ater as a negotiating tool,
&hich o3ers communica- tion and common interests in the midst of crisis.
4Q6 %he <05 is a monumental step, but there is much more &ork to be done.
Despite recent increase" co&&unications1 relations bet%een E')pt
an" Qen)a !it a lo% "urin' a &eetin' o# t!e =ile-COM in ;ecember
2E &hen OKenya/s Minister of Water Besources, Marha Karua, stormed out
of the talks after dis- agreements about sharing of the <ile/s resources, an
action that &as termed a edeclaration of &ar/ by her Cgyptian counterpart,
Mahmoud #bu-Zeid.P 4Q, %he recent ne'otiations bet%een t!e United
States an" Mexico !a$e s!o%n t!at i&ple&entin' an inter-
'o$ern&ental institution "esi'ne" to s!are "ata an" en#orce #uture
a'ree&ents %ill enable co-riparian nations to be'in pa$in' a pat! to
peace( <egotiations must involve active public participation and >e(ible
stan- dards &hich evolve as demands change. %he <05 must also continue
focused e3orts to attract international investors and foster international
communication. 8oint development of the <ile/s resources creates an
opportunity to institution- ali?e cooperation in a &in-&in situation for 0asin
nations plagued by a history of &arfare. Xet, "espite recent pro'ress1
#ailure o# t!e =BI %oul" 'enerate e$en 'reater &istrust an"
suspicion a&on' co-riparian nations1 t!us &a*in' t!e ris* o# ar&e"
conAict e$en &ore probable. 46 Becogni?ing the gravity of the situation,
the Minister of Water #3airs and 7orestry in 1outh #frica, Bonnie Kasrils, said
O]b^ut 5 state very clearly'&e can deliver clean drinking &ater and ade$uate
sanitation to the people of the &orld 57 WC %B:HX W#<% %., 57 WC +#*C %+C
P.H5%52#H W5HH %. ;. 1..P 464 With the need for change in the inter-
national spotlight, t!e ti&e #or action is no% an" t!e nations o# t!e
=ile 8i$er &ust #ocus on t!eir co&&on interests b) loo*in' to ot!er
transboun"ar) %ater "isputes an" propose" solutions #or efecti$e
&et!o"s o# #osterin' collecti$e action( !e recent United StatesD
Mexico a'ree&ents illustrate t!e i&portance o# a trans-national
%ater &ana'e&ent s)ste& &ith the po&er to enforce agreements through
a centrali?ed institution. 7urther, the &ater $uality standards of the human
rights model provide a strategy to prevent disease and decrease pollution.
7inally, the methodology of the privati?ation model creates a means to
generate the necessary funding to produce a lasting e3ect. %hus,
implementing an interna- tional system of collective action based upon each
of these principles has the potential not only to prevent &ar in <orthern
BeBo Lab Water Af
#frica, but also to promote peace and provide &ater to the citi?ens of one of
the most over-populated and impover- ished regions in the &orld.
BeBo Lab Water Af
A Water Wars D
=ile %ar:s insulate" #ro& 'eneric %ater %ar D
S!inn H
httpKGGelliott.g&u.eduGne&sGspeechesGshinnQELnilebasin.cfm #mb. ;avid +. 1hinn
#dAunct Professor, Clliott 1chool of 5nternational #3airs %he )eorge Washington
%here is one school of thought that argues there has never been a maAor con>ict
over access to fresh &ater. 2onse$uently, there is no reason to get e(ercised about
a possible &ar over &ater in the <ile 0asin. .thers, this author included, are not as
sure, particularly as populations increase and the demand for &ater e(ceeds supply.
Hester 0ro&n, founder of World&atch 5nstitute, argues that &ater scarcity is the
Ssingle biggest threat to global food security,S adding there is little &ater left &hen
the <ile reaches the Mediterranean. %he #s&an ;am no& holds back most of the silt
that once formed the rich agricultural land in the <ile ;elta, &hich is eroding into
the sea in some places at a rate of 4 meters annually. 5nternational con>ict e(pert
%homas +omer-;i(on has suggested that con>ict is most probable &hen a
do&nstream riparian is highly dependent on river &ater and is militarily and
economically strong in comparison to upstream riparians. %his is precisely the case
&ith Cgypt. 5t depends on the <ile and is far stronger militarily, politically, and
economically than 1udan or Cthiopia. Cgyptian President #n&ar el-1adat stated in
4,6K S5f Cthiopia takes any action to block our right to the <ile &aters, there &ill be
no alternative for us but to use force. %ampering &ith the rights of a nation to &ater
is tampering &ith its life and a decision to go to &ar on this score is indisputable in
the international community.S %he former Cgyptian defense minister reiterated in
4,,4 CgyptNs readiness to use force, if necessary, to protect its control of the <ile.
CthiopiaNs minister of &ater resources announced in 4,,Q at a conference in #ddis
#baba on the <ile Biver 0asin #ction Plan that Sas a source and maAor contribution
of the <ile &aters, Cthiopia has the right to have an e$uitable share of the <ile
&aters and reserves its rights to make use of its &aters.S CthiopiaNs foreign minister
stated in 4,,6 that Sthere is no earthly force that can stop Cthiopia from bene@ting
from the <ile.S %he Cgyptian irrigation minister announced in 2! in advance of a
meeting &ith other riparians that the talks must not Stouch CgyptNs historical rightsS
to <ile &ater. Bather, riparian states should focus on &ays to recover &ater that is
being &asted. Cthiopian Prime Minister Meles Zena&i &arned in 29 that Sif Cgypt
&ere to plan to stop Cthiopia from utili?ing the <ile &ater it &ould have to occupy
Cthiopia and no country on earth has done that in the past.S (5taly, of course, did
Aust that from 4,FE-!4. Cgypt is in no position today, ho&ever, to occupy Cthiopia
although it could in>ict considerable damage by air." %he current Cgyptian foreign
minister, in response to demands by upstream riparians to revie& the <ile treaties,
commented in 29 that Cgypt &ill not give up its share of <ile &ater. 7ormer
Cgyptian 7oreign Minister and :< 1ecretary )eneral 0outros 0outros )hali told the
002 in 29 that military confrontation bet&een the countries of the <ile 0asin &as
almost inevitable unless they could agree to share &ater e$uitably. +e concluded
that Sthe ne(t &ar among countries &ill not be for oil or territorial borders, but only
for the problem of &ater.S 5t should be eminently possible to avoid &ar over &ater
in the <ile 0asin. 0ut to suggest that it &ill not happen Aust because there has not
been a &ar over access to fresh &ater in the past is not persuasive.
BeBo Lab Water Af
BeBo Lab Water Af
NWater WarsL
BeBo Lab Water Af
!e US-Mexico bor"er re'ion is a potential Aas!point #or %ater
Ju"'e 7+13
2lark, managing director of the White +ouse Writers )roup, 5nc. and chairman of
Paci@c Besearch 5nstitute, O%he 2oming Water Wars,P
#round the &orld, t!e Institute !as 2n'ere" &ore t!an t%ent) conAicts
an" potential conAicts concernin' "i$ision o# ri$er Ao%s bet&een
upstream and do&nstream users. %hese range from tensions &ithin 2hina
over the Xangt?e to discord bet&een Mali, <iger, <igeria, and )uinea over the
<iger and bet&een 5ra$, 1yria, and %urkey over the %igris and Cuphrates.
Cven t!e United States is on t!e list> !e United States an" Mexico !a$e
lon' s.uabble" o$er t!e 8io <ran"e1 8io Bra$o1 8io Conc!os1 an"
Colora"o s)ste&s1 all o# %!ic! rise in t!e United States but are crucial
to nort!ern Mexico.\ #s &ith separatist movements, &ater disputes also
reach into &hat before the @nancial crisis #mericans &ere inclined to regard
as placid Curope. 5n 4,,Q the 5nternational 2ourt of 8ustice &as asked to
resolve a controversy bet&een the 1lovak Bepublic and +ungary. #t issue
&ere a 4,!Q treaty and 1lovakiaNs (and before it 2?echoslovakiaNs" recent
diversion of the ;anube. %he @ve-year-long disagreement occasioned
escalating verbal battles, massive public protests and at one point military
maneuvers along the border.
A&erica is on t!e brin* o# 'oin' to %ar %it! Mexico o$er %ater
Ca%*es 7+17
Hogan, a &riter, publisher, broadcaster and 5nternet guide, OWater &ar &ith Me(ico
looms in 1outh&est,P httpKGG&esternfarmpress.comGgovernmentG&ater-&ar-me(ico-
World leaders, diplomats and even scientists have been &arning us for years
that t!e next <reat War %ill be o$er %ater and not oil, a resoun"in'
senti&ent ec!oin' across t!e U(S( MMexico bor"er t!is %ee* as
"is'runtle" #ar&ers1 politicians an" co&&unit) lea"ers #ro& bot!
si"es %orr) about %!ere t!e %ater %ill co&e #ro& to 'ro% t!eir
crops t!is )ear. \ Cars! %or"s !a$e alrea") starte" to A) o$er a
recently announced 5nternational 0oundary and Water 2ommission (50W2"
plan to release &ater from t!e 8io <ran"e Biver to Me(ico this month,
earlier in the year than usual, a &o$e exas an" =e% Mexico irri'ation
"istricts sa) %ill cause serious loss o# %ater to e$aporation at a ti&e
%!en U(S( #ar&ers are 'oin' to nee" e$er) inc! t!e) can 2n"
#ollo%in' last )ear:s "rou'!t(
Water %ars out%ei'!-&ost li*el) extinction scenario
In !ese i&es 7
(44G44, httpKGG&&&.inthesetimes.comGissueG2EG29Gculture4.shtml
BeBo Lab Water Af
in !ese i&es is a nonpro@t, independent, national maga?ine published in
2hicago. We/ve been around since 4,QE, @ghting for corporate accountability and
progressive government. 5n other &ords, a better &orld
cites environmental thinker and activist *andana 1hiva Maude 0arlo& and %ony
2larke'probably <orth #merica/s foremost &ater e(perts
%he t&o books provide a chilling, in-depth e(amination of a rapidly emerging global
crisis. ORuite simply,P 0arlo& and 2larke &rite, Ounless &e dramatically change our
&ays, bet&een one-half and t&o-thirds of humanity &ill be living &ith severe fresh
&ater shortages &ithin the ne(t $uarter-century. g %he hard ne&s is thisK +umanity
is depleting, diverting and polluting the planet/s fresh &ater resources so $uickly
and relentlessly that every species on earth'including our o&n'is in mortal
danger.P %he crisis is so great, the three authors agree, that the &orld/s ne(t great
&ars &ill be over &ater. %he Middle Cast, parts of #frica, 2hina, Bussia, parts of the
:nited 1tates and several other areas are already struggling to e$uitably share
&ater resources. Many con>icts over &ater are not even recogni?ed as suchK 1hiva
blames the 5sraeli-Palestinian con>ict in part on the severe scarcity of &ater in
settlement areas. #s available fresh &ater on the planet decreases, today/s lo&-
level con>icts can only increase in intensity
Water s!orta'es cause" b) %ar&in' e&pericall) cause %ater
Qol&anns*o' F (*ikram .dedra, #pril, <or&eigan Befugee 2ouncil, O7uture
>oods of refugeesK # comment on climate change, con>ict and forced migrationP,
httpKGG&&&.nrc.noGarchGLimgG,2E6!6.pdf, #ccessed EG26G6"
Water scarcit) &a) tri''er "istributional conAicts. Water scarcity by itself
does not necessarily lead to con>ict and violence, though. %here is an interaction
&ith other socio-economic and political factorsK %he potential for con>ict often
relates to social discrimination in terms of access to safe and clean &ater. %he risk
can therefore be reduced by ensuring Aust distribution so that people in
disadvantaged areas also have access to the safe and clean &ater. #s already
pointed out, a &ain proble& to"a) ?an" probabl) #or t!e near #uture@ is still
t!e so-calle" econo&ic %ater scarcit)1 an" 'oo" %ater &ana'e&ent can
pre$ent conAict( Wit!in states1 'roups !a$e o#ten "e#en"e" or c!allen'e"
tra"itional ri'!ts o# %ater use> In se&i-ari" re'ions suc! as t!e Sa!el
t!ere !a$e been tensions bet%een #ar&ers an" no&a"ic !er"ers. #ccording
to The Stern Review on The Econoics of Cliate Change,!4 t!e "rou'!ts in t!e
Sa!el in t!e 1GO+s an" 1GF+s &a) !a$e been cause" partl) b) cli&ate
c!an'e an" contribute" to increase" co&petition #or scarce resources
bet%een t!ese 'roups( !e uare' rebellion in Mali in t!e be'innin' o# t!e
1GG+s1 is also &entione" as an exa&ple o# a cli&ate c!an'e-relate"
conAict ( Man) o# t!e "rou'!t-struc* no&a"s sou'!t re#u'e in t!e cities or
le#t t!e countr)( !e lac* o# social net%or*s #or t!e returnees1 t!e
continuin' "rou'!t1 co&petition #or lan" %it! t!e settle" #ar&ers an"
"issatis#action %it! t!e aut!orities1 %ere #actors t!at #uelle" t!e ar&e"
rebellion ( In t!e past t!ere !a$e been #e% exa&ples o# 3%ater %ars4
bet%een states. 5n fact there are several cases of cooperation (for e(ample
bet&een Palestine and 5srael", but these have generally concerned bene@t-sharing,
not burden-sharing. #ccording to 7red Pearce, the de@ning crises of the 24st century
&ill involve &ater.!2 +e sees the 1i( ;ay War in 4,EQ bet&een 5srael and its
JDI13 H+
BeBo Lab Water Af
neighbours as the @rst modern O&ater &arP, speci@cally over the Biver 8ordan. Most
o# t!e %orl":s &a/or ri$ers cross international boun"aries1 but are not
co$ere" b) treaties( Accor"in' to ;earce1 t!is is a recipe #or conAict an"
#or upstrea& users to !ol" "o%nstrea& users to ranso&. %his could be
helped by internationally brokered deals for sharing such rivers.
;lan is *e) to US %ater lea"ers!ip an" cooperati$e #ra&e%or*s
#or "ealin' %it! #uture s!orta'es(
<leic* in 17 (Peter +- Mac#rthur 7ello& co-founder and president of the Paci@c
5nstitute in .akland, 2alifornia and Ph; +ydroclimatology T 0erkeley- O:nited
1tates 5nternational Water Policy,P A Twenty-First Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet
2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p."
!e Unite" States coul" be a po%er#ul1 efecti$e1 an" inAuential $oice #or
sustainable %ater &ana'e&ent an" for t!e use o# the tools o# cooperation
an" conAict resolution in &ana'in' %ater "isputes around the &orld. #pplying these
tools consistently &ould be bene@cial to the :1 economy, human health, and foreign a3airs. !ere are
se$eral critical areas %!ere #e"eral in$ol$e&ent an" responsibilit) are *e)
to efecti$e an" e9cient international %ater polic). E$er) &a/or %aters!e"
in t!e Unite" States spans t%o or &ore states1 an" &an) cross our bor"ers
%it! Mexico and 2anada. !e #e"eral role in ne'otiatin' compacts and a'ree&ents
t!at a""ress na$i'ation, trade, &ater allocation1 an" &ater .ualit) is enshrined in
constitutional principles, but s!oul" be rein#orce" %it! resources to per&it a &ore
acti$e efort to resolve disputes. %he recent %or* o# #e"eral a'encies in !elpin'
alle$iate interstate %ater "isputes bet%een the states that share the 2olorado Biver
s!o%s t!e i&portance o# #e"eral in$ol$e&ent in ongoing disputes that states are unable to
resolve alone (#dler and 1traube 2". 1imilarly, e(panded federal involvement is needed #or resol$in'
"isputes %it! both 2anada and Mexico. J26!-269M
JDI13 H1
BeBo Lab Water Af
US-Mexico a'ree&ents on %ater cooperation pro$i"e an
international &o"el , 8ecent pilot pro'ra& pro$es
Dibble an" <ar"ner 7+17
1andra, sta3 &riter #<; Michael, &orks in the :-%/s 1acramento bureau, covering
politics from the governor to local legislators, <ov. 24, OMCc52.-:.1. 15)< +51%.B52
2.H.B#;. B5*CB ;C#H,P httpKGG&&&.utsandiego.comGne&sG242GnovG24Gtp-me(ico-
!e pact is &ore pilot t!an per&anent1 exten"in' /ust 2$e )ears
until it !as to be reopene". 5t establishes a number of policies for both
sides, including de@ning rights to Hake Mead &ater, repairing the earth$uake-
damaged irrigation net&ork in the Me(icali *alley and guaranteeing >o&s for
@sh and &ildlife in the Me(ican delta.OE$en t!ou'! %e are t%o separate
nations1 %e "o s!are one %ater suppl)1P said 8eanine 8ones, 2alifornia/s
principal e(pert on the river. OWe do have to &ork together to get better
together.P Sala5ar sai" t!e a'ree&ent s!o%s an e$olution to%ar"
cooperation bet%een all parties %it! a sta*e in t!e Colora"o 8i$er
an" coul" act as an 3international &o"el4 #or ot!er ri$er-s!arin'
ne'otiations, such as those involving the Bio )rande. OWe have chosen
collaboration over con>ict,P he said. 1ala?ar cited several looming challenges
that the pact is meant to address. )ro&th is one. Anot!er is cli&ate
c!an'e1 %!ic! scientists sai" is ta*in' a toll on t!e entire Colora"o
8i$er s)ste& b) prolon'in' "r) spells( 3We are connecte" b) our
alliance on t!e Colora"o 8i$er1 an" to'et!er %e #ace t!e ris* o#
re"uce" supplies in t!e )ears a!ea"14 he said. %he agreement, formally
kno&n as Minute F4,, &ill be carried out under the overarching 4,!! :.1.-
Me(ico &ater treaty. It %as ne'otiate" t!rou'! U(S( an" Mexican
sections o# t!e International Boun"ar) an" Water Co&&ission1 a
U(S(-Mexico panel create" to a""ress bor"er issues. :.1. 2ommissioner
Cd&ard ;rusina said the agreement &ill help authorities in both nations gain
insights for future agreements to Obetter manage &ater resources on the
2olorado Biver for decades to come.P
US-Mexico a'ree&ents are stu"ie" an" use" as &o"els #or
ot!er %ater issues internationall)
State o# Cali#ornia 7+13
7ebruary 4F, OC(ecutive .=ce 1ummary,P
Se$eral &ont!s %ere spent "isse&inatin' t!e pro/ect:s results to
sta*e!ol"ers an" o9cials in an efort to e"ucate t!e& on stor&-
in"uce" soli" %aste Ao%s1 res ource &ana'e&ent1 an" soli" %aste
&ana'e&ent solutions. Besults &ere presented to %iAuana/s 1ecretary of
5nfrastructure and :rban ;evelopment, ;avid <avarro, and then 1ecretary of
1ocial ;evelopment, Miguel Medrano. 0oth o=cials toured the canyon and
the estuary &ith Professor Bomo, and e(pressed inte rest in cooperating in
future studies and addressing their @ndi ngs. ProAect results have also been
presented to :niversity of 2alifornia 1an ;iego, the %iAuana Biver *alley
Becovery %eam, the 1an ;iego Water 0oard, and the 0order 242 %ask 7orce.
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!ere are #ourteen pairs o# U( S(-Mexico bor"er cities t!at sufer
si&ilar efects o# transbor"er soli" %aste Ao%s #oun" in Los
Laureles1 so t!e bene2ts o# str en't!enin' anti-"u&pin' la%s an"
en#orce&ent eforts in Mexico coul" be #ar reac!in'( Lessons
learne" #ro& t!is researc! can no% be use" to create an
international &o"el #or %aste &a na'e&ent in ot!er transbor"er
%aters!e"s alon' t!e bor"er(
!e US %ill use a'ree&ents %it! Mexico as international
&o"els to be pus!e" on ot!er countries
Doo& 7+17
8ustin, &riter, O:.1., Me(ico 1ign 7ive-Xear ;eal on 2olorado Biver 7lo&s,P
!e 3Minute 31G4 pact si'ne" to"a) a&en"s a 1GDD %ater treat)
bet%een t!e U(S( an" Mexico in$ol$in' t!e Colora"o1 i/uana an" 8io
<ran"e ri$ers t!at inclu"e" a'riculture1 2s!in' an" na$i'ation
interests, according to the Paci@c 5nstitute. :.1. 5nterior 1ecretary Qen
Sala5ar:s 7+1+ $isit to Mexico to co&plete t!e Minute 31F %ater
a'ree&ent le" to t!e current "eal1 according to a government
statement. %he @rst of the so- called Minutes, &hich cover land-use and &ater
issues bet&een the t&o countries, &as in 4,22. OW!at %e:re "oin' no% in
t!e Colora"o 8i$er basin pro$i"es an international &o"el #or !o% to
resol$e %ater issues14 Sala5ar sai" today on a conference call. O%ogether
&e can ensure to the best of our ability that economies &ill continue to gro&
on both sides of the border.P
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In"o-;a* Mo"elin'
:1 1tate ;epartment discussed &ater management &ith 5ndia and
=A 17
1timson.org httpKGG&&&.stimson.orgGresearch-pagesGconnecting-the-dropsG
7rom 8une 2E-26, 242, the Sti&son Center !osts a con#erence in
Qat!&an"u %it! t!e support o# t!e US State Depart&ent1 brin'in'
to'et!er In"ian an" ;a*istani scientists1 a'ricultural econo&ists1 %ater
experts1 an" cli&ate-c!an'e &o"elers to "iscuss best %ater
&ana'e&ent practices in t!e In"us 8i$er Basin( %he conference is the @rst
of t&o to be held in #sia this year. ;articipants i"enti2e" existin'
*no%le"'e 'aps bet%een In"ia an" ;a*istan1 an" "iscusse" !o% to
increase transparenc) in &ana'in' transboun"ar) %aters t!rou'!
increase" "ata-s!arin' on 4" &ater in>o& levels into the basin and 2" climate
change impacts on sno&pack- and glacial melt rates in the 5ndus head&ater
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A#rican States Mo"el
Africa Uses US Water Modelling Systems
Arnol" et al +I
One suc! &o"el a$ailable #or t!e %ater resources professional is t!eS Soil an"
Water Assess&ent ool ?SWA@1 a distributed parameter &o"el "e$elope" b) t!e
Unite" States Depart&entS o# A'riculture. %his paper describes some recent advances made
in the application of 1W#% and the 1W#%D)51\ interface for &ater resources management. 7our case studies are
presented. %he +ydrologic :nit Model for the :nited\ 1tates (+:M:1" proAect used 1W#% to conduct a national-
scale analysis of the e3ect of management scenarios on\ &ater $uantity and $uality. 5ntegration of the 1W#% model
&ith rainfall data available from the W1B-66; radar\ net&ork helps us to incorporate the spatial variability of
rainfall into the modelling process. %his study demonstrates\ the usefulness of radar rainfall data in distributed
hydrologic studies and the potential of 1W#% for application in\ >ood analysis and prediction. A !)"rolo'ic
&o"ellin' stu") of the 1ondu river basin in Qen)a usin' SWA in"icatesS t!e
potential for application of the model in A#rican %aters!e"s and points to the need for
development of better\ model input data sets in #frica, &hich are critical for detailed &ater resources studies. !e
application o# SWA #orS %ater .ualit) analysis in t!e Bos.ue ri$er basin1
"e&onstrates t!e stren't! o# t!e &o"el for analysing di3erent\ management scenarios to
minimi?e point and non-point pollution, and its potential for application in total ma(imum\ daily load (%M;H"
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U , Water Wars
Water %ars out%ei'!-&ost li*el) extinction scenario
In !ese i&es 7
(44G44, httpKGG&&&.inthesetimes.comGissueG2EG29Gculture4.shtml
in !ese i&es is a nonpro@t, independent, national maga?ine published in
2hicago. We/ve been around since 4,QE, @ghting for corporate accountability and
progressive government. 5n other &ords, a better &orld
cites environmental thinker and activist *andana 1hiva Maude 0arlo& and %ony
2larke'probably <orth #merica/s foremost &ater e(perts
%he t&o books provide a chilling, in-depth e(amination of a rapidly emerging global
crisis. ORuite simply,P 0arlo& and 2larke &rite, Ounless &e dramatically change our
&ays, bet&een one-half and t&o-thirds of humanity &ill be living &ith severe fresh
&ater shortages &ithin the ne(t $uarter-century. g %he hard ne&s is thisK +umanity
is depleting, diverting and polluting the planet/s fresh &ater resources so $uickly
and relentlessly that every species on earth'including our o&n'is in mortal
danger.P %he crisis is so great, the three authors agree, that the &orld/s ne(t great
&ars &ill be over &ater. %he Middle Cast, parts of #frica, 2hina, Bussia, parts of the
:nited 1tates and several other areas are already struggling to e$uitably share
&ater resources. Many con>icts over &ater are not even recogni?ed as suchK 1hiva
blames the 5sraeli-Palestinian con>ict in part on the severe scarcity of &ater in
settlement areas. #s available fresh &ater on the planet decreases, today/s lo&-
level con>icts can only increase in intensity
Water con>ict are empirically proven
<leci* in G
Peter )leick is co-founder and president of the Paci@c 5nstitute in .akland,
2alifornia, and a member of the World Cconomic 7orum )lobal #genda 2ouncil on
Water 1ecurity and the :</s C(pert )roup on Policy Belevance of the World Water
#ssessment Program. +e is editor of the biennial book %he World/s Water and has
recently begun blogging at Water 0y the <umbers.
7ar more important, and far easier to ans&er, is the $uestionK 5s there any
connection bet&een fresh &ater and con>ict, including violent con>ictV #nd the
ans&er has to be an unambiguous Oyes.P +istory going back 9, years is rife &ith
e(amples &here &ater has been a goal of violence, a target or tool of con>ict, or a
source of disputes and political strife. .ur Water 2on>ict 2hronology, at
&orld&ater.org, lists hundreds of these e(amples. #nd if there is a strong connection
bet&een &ater and con>icts, t&o ne& $uestions come upK #re the risks of these
con>icts gro&ing, and ho& can &e reduce themV 5 think the ans&er to the @rst is,
yes, the risks of &ater-related con>icts appears to be gro&ing.
Cli&ate c!an'e increases t!e ris* o# %ater s!orta'e
Ca&pana G
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Michael C. 2ampana is the director of the 5nstitute for Water and Watersheds and a
professor of geosciences at .regon 1tate :niversity. +e maintains the blog
%he aforementioned events a3ord some measure of optimism, but &ill the past
predict the futureV We face an uncertain and potentially calamitous future. World
population is approaching Q billion people. 2limate change and its e3ect on &ater
resources loom ominously. Watershed boundaries may change. Water supplies may
increase in some areas and decrease in others. #nd since &ater does more than
$uench thirst'it gro&s food, maintains ecosystems and @sheries, dilutes &aste,
provides recreation, facilitates navigation and trade, and generates po&er'5 can
foresee situations &here nations, or even states, cities, or provinces, &age &ar over
&ater and the services it provides.
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Water War Brin*
Water %ar %it! Mexico loo&s in Sout!%est
Hogan Ca%*es 17, 2C. at Host Planet Media,
Worl" lea"ers1 "iplo&ats an" e$en scientists !a$e been %arnin' us #or
)ears t!at t!e next <reat War %ill be o$er %ater an" not oil1 a resoun"in'
senti&ent ec!oin' across t!e U(S( MMexico bor"er t!is %ee* as "is'runtle"
#ar&ers1 politicians an" co&&unit) lea"ers #ro& bot! si"es %orr) about
%!ere t!e %ater %ill co&e #ro& to 'ro% t!eir crops t!is )ear( Cars! %or"s
!a$e alrea") starte" to A) o$er a recentl) announce" International
Boun"ar) an" Water Co&&ission ?IBWC@ plan to release %ater #ro& t!e
8io <ran"e 8i$er to Mexico this month, earlier in the year than usual, a move
%e(as and <e& Me(ico irri'ation "istricts sa) %ill cause serious loss o# %ater
to e$aporation at a ti&e %!en U(S( #ar&ers are 'oin' to nee" e$er) inc!
t!e) can 2n" #ollo%in' last )ear:s "rou'!t( %e(as 2ommission on
Cnvironmental Ruality 2ommissioner 2arlos Bubinstein and %e(as #griculture
2ommissioner %odd 1taples are the latest to Aoin the ranks of those opposed to t!e
release o# %ater #ro& Elep!ant Butte 8eser$oir in =e% Mexico t!at %ill
sen" &illions o# 'allons o# %ater across t!e U(S( bor"er into =ort!ern
Mexico %!ere "rou'!t stric*en #ar&ers sa) t!e) "esperatel) nee" t!e
resource to reco$er #ro& last )ear:s &e'a "rou'!t. 5n a Aoint letter from
1taples and Bubinstein to 50W2 2ommissioner Cd&ard ;rusina last &eek, they
urged that authorities 3act i&&e"iatel) to rescin" t!e "ecision to release t!e
%ater because it %ill result in si'ni2cant !ar& to A&erican #ar&ers an"
ranc!ers an" X%ill be aY %aste o# %ater "urin' t!is ti&e o# "rou'!t(4 !e
Mexican branc! o# t!e IBWC !a" &a"e #or&al re.uest earlier t!is &ont!
#or t!e earl) release o# %ater, a provision they say is authori?ed by a 4,!!
treaty bet&een the t&o countries that outlines ho& &ater in the &atersheds of both
countries is shared. %he :.1. 1ection of the 5nternational 0oundary and Water
2ommission (:150W2", headed by ;rusina, is an o=cial dual government agency
under the control of the :.1. 1tate ;epartment and is the :.1. component of the
t&o-nation 5nternational 0oundary and Water 2ommission (50W2", &hich applies the
boundary and &ater treaties of the :nited 1tates and Me(ico and settles
di3erences. %he 2ommission &as formed as a result of the %reaty of 4,!!,
established for the utili?ation of &aters of the 2olorado and %iAuana Bivers and of
the Bio )rande and to determine ho& that &ater &ould be shared in the
international segment of the Bio )rande from 7ort Ruitman, %e(as, to the )ulf of
Me(ico. %his treaty also authori?ed the t&o countries to construct operate and
maintain dams on the main channel of the Bio )rande. %he 2onvention of May 24,
4,E, provided for the distribution bet&een the :nited 1tates and Me(ico of the
&aters of the Bio )rande above 7ort Ruitman, %e(as, for the 6,-mile international
boundary reach of the Bio )rande through the Cl Paso-8udre? *alley. %his 2onvention
allotted to Me(ico E, acre-feet annually of the &aters of the Bio )rande to be
delivered in accordance &ith a monthly schedule at the headgate to Me(icoNs
#ce$uia Madre Aust above 8udre?, 2hihuahua. %o facilitate such deliveries, the :nited
1tates constructed, at its e(pense, the Clephant 0utte ;am in its territory. !e
Con$ention inclu"es a pro$ision t!at sa)s in case o# extraor"inar) "rou'!t
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or serious acci"ent to t!e irri'ation s)ste& in t!e Unite" States1 t!e
a&ount o# %ater "eli$ere" to t!e Mexican Canal s!all be "i&inis!e" in t!e
sa&e proportion as t!e %ater "eli$ere" to lan"s un"er t!e irri'ation
s)ste& in t!e Unite" States "o%nstrea& o# Elep!ant Butte Da&(
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A =o <;W
Doesn:t assu&e t!e speci2cit) o# an) o# our scenarios or
increase" resource tensions o$er %ater1 o$erpopulation1 an"
#oo" %!ic! c!an'es all t!e securit) calculations , t!e &utual
in$est&ents an" *e) nature o# t!e re'ion #or a &)ria"
resources "ra%s in ot!er po%ers as %ell as re'ional sp!ere o#
inAuence co&petition supporte" b) &ultiple pieces o# e$i"ence
in t!e 1AC(
<reat po%er strate'ic interests cause "eterrence #ailure
Brau&oeller 7++F, 0ear 7, O1ystemic Politics and the .rigins of )reat Po&er
2on>ict,P %he #merican Political 1cience Bevie& 42.4 (7eb"K QQ-,F.
%his article has introduced a ne& systemic theory of international politics and
demonstrated ho&, in combination &ith a dyadic theory of con>ict, it can constitute
a useful and plausible t&o-stage theory of con>ict among Curopean )reat Po&ers in
the nineteenth century. %he argument at the heart of the theory is straightfor&ardK
the <reat ;o%ers atte&pt to &anipulate t!e structure o# t!e international
s)ste& in a &anner t!at is &ost con"uci$e to t!e &aintenance o# 'eneral
peace ( Because t!eir i"eas re'ar"in' !o% best to "o so "ifer, ho&ever,
t!eir atte&pts at i&ple&entin' re'ulator) political re'i&es lea" t!e& to
atte&pt to un"er&ine one anot!erKs eforts. !ese atte&pts pro"uce
!ostilit) an" brea*"o%ns in 'eneral "eterrence, or onset o# &ilitari5e"
interstate "isputes1 bet%een <reat ;o%ers. !e) are &ost li*el) to do so
%!en one <reat ;o%er in a !ostile pair, by virtue of its relative inactivity, #ails
to "eter t!e ot!er. .f e$ual interest, perhaps, is my conclusion that, in a head-to-
head test, deterrence theory outperforms the spiral model as the dyadic half of this
synthesis. %his should not be taken as a claim that the spiral model has been
falsi@ed- rather, it suggests that deterrence-model con>icts are far more common in
this period than are spiral-model con>icts. 7igure F sho&s that con>icts consistent
&ith the spiral model do indeed occur, but that they are a clear minority.
<reat po%er %ar possible , &iscalculation &a*es "eterrence
an" ot!er #actors irrele$ant
;r. Martin C. Cell&an 7++F, OBisk #nalysis of <uclear ;eterrence,P %+C 0C<%,
1PB5<), online
1ome might argue that, because World War 555 &ould be so destructive, no one in his
right mind &ould start such a devastating con>ict and there is no need to &orry. 0ut
much the same could have been said prior to the @rst World War, demonstrating
that in times of crisis &e are often not in our right minds. 5f civili?ation is destroyed
in a nuclear holocaust, it is likely to start as World War 5 did'a se$uence of events
that spirals out of control. 7ormer 1ecretary of ;efense Bobert Mc<amara sums up
&hat he learned from participating in three &orld cri- ses'0erlin in 4,E4, 2uba in
4,E2, and the Mideast &ar of 4,EQ'each of &hich had the potential to go nuclearK
O5n no one of the three incidents did either g ]the :.1. or the 1oviet :nion^ intend
to act in a &ay that &ould lead to military con>ict, but on each of the occasions lack
of information, misinformation, and misAudgments led to confrontation. #nd in each
of them, as the crisis evolved, tensions heightened, emotions rose, and the danger
of irrational decisions increased.P ]Mc<amara 4,6E, page 4F^ 0ecause the 2uban
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missile crisis &as the closest the &orld has come to nuclear &ar, it is &orth&hile
studying its evolution. 5n 4,E4, over strenuous 1oviet obAections, #merica started
deploying nuclear-armed 8upiter 5B0M/s in %urkey. 7rom our perspective, installing
these &eapons made sense. %hey secured <#%./s southern >ank, helped cement
relations &ith %urkey, and enhanced our nuclear deterrent. %he Bussians vie&ed
these missiles very di3erently. While other factors contributed to Khrushchev/s 4,E2
deployment of similar missiles in 2uba, this disastrous decision started &ith a
nuclear version of tit-for-tat as noted by Khrushchev/s speech &riter and advisor,
7yodor 0urlatskyK OKhrushchev and ]1oviet ;efense Minister^ B. Malinovsky g &ere
strolling along the 0lack 1ea coast. Malinovsky pointed out to sea and said that on
the other shore in %urkey there &as an #merican nuclear-missile base. 5n a matter of
si( or seven minutes, missiles launched from that base could devastate maAor
centres in the :kraine and southern Bussia. g Khrushchev asked Malinovsky &hy
the 1oviet :nion should not have the right to do the same as #merica. Why, for
e(ample, should it not deploy missiles in 2ubaVP ]0urlatsky 4,,4, page 4Q4^ .nce
the crisis started, it developed a life of its o&n. )eorge 0all, a member of the White
+ouse C(2omm9, stated that &hen a group of Kennedy/s advisors met years later
OMuch to our o&n surprise, &e reached the unanimous conclusion that, had &e
determined our course of action &ithin the @rst !6 hours after the missiles &ere
discovered, &e &ould almost certainly have made the &rong decision, responding to
the missiles in such a &ay as to re$uire a forceful 1oviet response and thus setting
in train a series of reactions and counter-reactions &ith horrendous conse$uences.P
]:ry 4,69, page FQ^
;ercei$e" bene2ts cause states to 'o to %ar e$en in parit)
William 8ee" et al 7++F, #ssociate Professor, ;epartment of Political 1cience
Bice :niversity, OWar, Po&er, and 0argaining,P May 24,
We @nd that the use of ideal points as measures of preferences provides great
leverage in the empirical testing of the bargaining model. .ur statistical anal)sis
strongly supports t!e !)pot!esis t!at t!e probabilit) o# interstate conAict
increases si'ni2cantl) %!en a ")a":s "istribution o# po%er "oes not &atc!
%it! t!e "istribution o# bene2ts. .verall, the $uantitative evidence strongly
suggests that t!e "istribution o# bene2ts an" t!e "istribution o# po%er
/ointl) afect t!e probabilit) o# t!e onset o# a &ilitari5e" interstate "ispute
follo&ing the functional form e(plicitly derived from the bargaining model of &ar.
%his study provides one possible e(planation for &hy e&pirical e$i"ence !as
been #oun" #or bot! po%er prepon"erance an" balance o# po%er t!eor). #s
it turns out, eit!er "istribution o# po%er &a) be associate" %it! conAict 1
'i$en a certain "istribution o# bene2ts(
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0uture %ater s!orta'es exacerbate pollution1 #atalities1 an"
resource pressure
Peolia Water 11 DWorld&ide &ater treatment company
Haurent #uguste (President b 2C." D White paper for %he Water 5mpact 5nde( and
the 7irst 2arbon-Water #nalysis of a MaAor Metropolitan Water 2ycle.
#re concerns about fresh&ater resources overblo&nV #re these matters for people
far removed from our respective safe havens, especially for those located on lakes
and river&aysV <ot &hen considering the CP# has already cited FE states in the :1#
as facing &ater shortages and that industrial companies and investors are placing
&ater risks on top of their list of strategic issues to address. 5n the developing &orld
&here infrastructure is lacking, close to 4 billion people do not have proper access
to healthful &ater, and 2.E billion people are &ithout sanitation systems. %his
triggers an incredible storm of health issues and &ater-borne fatalities, not to
mention fresh&ater pollution and &ater resource pressure. #t the same time,
leakage rates in distribution net&orks in developed countries can e(ceed 9W, &hile
the lack of proper maintenance of &aste&ater and storm&ater collection net&orks
leads to gro&ing pollution.6W of all childhood deaths and illnesses in developing
countries are directly or indirectly caused by lack of proper access to &ater or
sanitation.0y 29, Q9W of the &orld/s population &ill live in cities, increasing
pressure on already strained &ater resources. )lobal demand for &ater &ill increase
by !W in Aust 2 years D and is proAected to double in rapidly developing countries.
QW of today/s &ater &ithdra&als are used in agriculture. Population gro&th &ill
lead to further signi@cant &ithdra&als for agriculture, &hile fertili?ing practices, if
inappropriately managed, lead to an increasing source of &ater pollution a3ecting
ground and surface &ater fresh resources.
Collapse o# Mexican %ater supplies "estro)s t!eir a'ricultural
sector an" econo&)(
8osenber' R orres Z17
Mica A "oe, GStubborn rought e2pecte to ta2 Me2ico $or yearsH
httpIJJ666.reuters.co!JarticleJ-8.-J8FJ-.Jus-!e2ico-rought-iUS0%'*-C.'+-8.-8F-. March -.
A se$ere "rou'!t in Mexico that !as cost farmers &ore t!an a billion
"ollars in crop losses alone an" set back the national cattle herd for years, is /ust a #oretaste
o# t!e "rier #utureX(Y facing Latin A&ericaKs secon" lar'est econo&). #s
&ater tankers race across northern Me(ico to reach far->ung to&ns, and crops &ither in the @elds, the government
!as allotte" 3D billion pesos ?W7(HI billion@ in e&er'enc) ai" to confront
the &orst drought ever recorded in the country. !e %ater s!orta'e &iped out millions of
acres of farmland this &inter, cause" 1I billion pesos ?W1(1F billion@ in
lost !ar$ests1 *ille" H+1+++ !ea" o# cattle an" %ea*ene" 7 &illion
&ore li$estoc*, pushing food prices higher in Me(ico. %he overall cost to the economy is still being gauged
but Me(icoNs drought-stung &inter has been evolving for years and is e(pected to &orsen as the e3ect of global
climate change takes hold, according to the government. S;roughts are cyclical - &e kno& that - but they are
gro&ing more fre$uent and severe due to climate change,S said Clvira Ruesada, the Minister for the Cnvironment
and <atural Besources. Accor"in' to Me(icoNs AMSDA agricultural association, poor %eat!er
"estro)e" so&e O(I &illion acres (F million hectares" o# culti$able lan" in
7+11 - an area about the si?e of 0elgium. %he federal agriculture ministry puts the @gure at about half that. %hat
helped push Me(icoNs food imports up F9 percent last year, a trend likely to persist through the 242-4F crop cycle.
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S%here &as talk of drought &hen 5 got here si(teen years ago,S said 5gnacio 0ecerra, a priest &orking in the rugged
to&n of 2arichi in 2hihuahua state, &hich has su3ered massive &ater shortages. S%his year, not even corn or beans
came up.S SWatering holes that never ran dry are empty. Without rain this situation is going to get even more
serious,S he said. Zacatecas state, the countryNs main bean producer, harvested only a
$uarter of the usual crop after months &ithout rain. #griculture Minister 7ransisco
Mayorga said this &eek that Me(ico &ill produce 24.6 million tonnes of corn in 242
after a sharp drop in production in 244 to 4,.2 million tonnes due to the drought.
%he country may have to import &hite corn - used to make staple corn tortillas - on
top of yello& corn imports from the :nited 1tates for animal feed. %he &ater
shortage has forced Me(ican farmers to cut back cattle herds as pasture lands dry
out and increased the risk of &ild@res, &hich ravaged northern Me(ico and the
southern :nited 1tates last spring. accepting a !ry future Mexican ;resi"ent 7elipe
Cal"eron, an outspoken advocate for mitigating and adapting to climate change, has or"ere" !is
'o$ern&ent to start 'ettin' rea") #or tou'!er ti&es( Experts
belie$e Mexico %ill !a$e to spen" billions o# "ollars in t!e next t%o
"eca"es to &aintain t!e %ater suppl) #or irri'ation an" "rin*in'
%ater( Water authority 2onagua says it &ust in$est o$er 3++ billion pesos
?W73(HF billion@ b) 7+3+ to sa#e'uar" an" &o"erni5e in#rastructure
b) sealin' lea*) pipes1 expan"in' reser$oirs an" e$en rec)clin'
!ouse!ol" %aste %ater( #s policymakers plot their response to climate change, Me(icans must simply come to
grip &ith years of little rain - and higher food bills for staples like beef. ;arrell +argrove, o&ner of farming and trucking @rm
1outh&est Hivestock in ;el Bio, %e(as, said the price of Me(ican cattle for e(port to the :nited 1tates had Aumped by about a third
over the last month and a half. Bising :.1. demand and shrinking herds in Me(ico and north of the border raised the basic price for a
F lb head of cattle to about `2 per lb from `4.9 since 7ebruary, he said. SWe have the lo&est cattle herd count here that &eNve
had since about 4,9,S +argrove said. %otal livestock prices in Me(ico &ere up by some 42.9 percent on the year in 7ebruary, o=cial
data sho&s. 2attle ranchers in 2hihuahua are &atching their herds &ither from malnutrition and say sick co&s &ill have trouble
reproducing, causing losses that could take a decade to recover. foo! shortages %he human cost has also been harsh.
%he government said it provided food rations to more than t&o million people, though agricultural group #M1;#
said F &illion people !a" been afecte" b) t!e lac* o# %ater( More t!an
D++1+++ resi"ents in t!e six "riest states %ere %it!out %ater at t!e
en" o# Dece&ber, 2onagua said, &ith reser$oirs in t%o states !al#-e&pt)
an" anot!er t%o less t!an a .uarter #ull. !e in"i'enous
ara!u&ara people o# nort!ern Mexico sufere"
particularl) !ar"1 %it! tens o# t!ousan"s o# poor #a&ilies
!it( %he government says it delivered millions of liters of milk and tonnes of food, but the situation is acute. S%his
year the %arahumaras have not been able to harvest corn or beans, &hich is the basis of their livelihood,S said local
priest 0ecerra. S#nd the &orst is yet to come - #pril, May, 8une, 8uly are the driest, hottest months ... &hich &ill
make the situation much more serious and comple(.S De#orestation %orsene" con"itions
#or in"i'enous people aroun" t!e copper can)on in C!i!ua!ua an"
&an) !a$e le#t #or cities to escape po$ert) an" !un'er.SWeNre at the point of
no return. %he northern part of the country is drying out. 5f the rains donNt come, the situation is going to be &orse
than serious. 5t &ill be a disaster,S he said. While rain-starved communities pray for a do&npour that &ould replenish
&ells and reservoirs, e(perts say the northern half of Me(ico is in a persistent dry cycle. S%he current drought &as
probably unfolding 2 years ago,S said 7ernando Miralles-Wilhelm, a hydrologist &ith the 5nter-#merican
;evelopment 0ank (5#;0".S%hese dynamics are going to continue for the ne(t fe& decades.S %he 5#;0, &hich &orks
in Hatin #merica and the 2aribbean, promises `4 out of every `! it lends over the ne(t three years &ill go to
conservation as &ell as adapting and mitigating climate change. %he bank lent nearly `44 billion last year. # >eet of
several thousands trailers is making round-the-clock trips in a race to get clean &ater to remote communities, but it
may not be enough if the drought &ears on. 1ummer rains typically break the &inter dry spell but 2onagua e(pects
March rainfall to be half of normal years and it does not see a break to the crisis before 8uly.
Mexican econo&ic collapse collapses t!e US econo&) an"
causes cartel ta*eo$er o# t!e bor"erlan"s
2.+# Besearch #ssociate Cd&ard W. Little2el" +G, 2.+# is an <). speciali?ed
in monitoring Hatin #merican and 2anadian Belations. JhttpKGG&&&.coha.orgGas-
BeBo Lab Water Af
migration-patterns-from-me(icoGM C+7
Cars! econo&ic con"itions on bot! si"es o# t!e bor"er also pro&ise to
lea$e the 44.6 million Me(icans, or 1+ percent o# t!e Mexican population1
li$in' in t!e Unite" States an" t!eir sout!ern "epen"ents in "esperate
situations( 5n general, +ispanic unemployment in the :nited 1tates rose from 9.4
percent in 2Q to 6. percent in 26. +ispanic immigrants are heavily
concentrated in the industries left most vulnerable by current conditions, such as
construction, manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, and support and personal
services. #mericans/ increased concern &ith Aob availability during the crisis further
limits the economic livelihoods of migrants and their families. %he remittance >o&s
of other 2entral #merican states &ith large migrant populations in the :nited
1tates, such as Cl 1alvador, )uatemala, and +onduras, are not e(pected to be as
severely e3ected as those of Me(ico. Many of these immigrants are granted
temporary protected status under special arrangements &ith the :nited 1tates,
making their countries less vulnerable than Me(ico to northern political, legal, and
economic >uctuations. %he fact that the :nited 1tates and Me(ico constitute,
according to the World 0ank, the Olargest immigration corridor in the &orldP further
illustrates the profound e3ect the decrease in migration and remittances may have
on both sides of the border. Cvidently, through migration, remittances, and <#7%#-
induced trade integration, t!e Mexican econo&) !as beco&e increasin'l)
"epen"ent upon t!at o# t!e Unite" States1 &a*in' t!e #or&er extre&el)
$ulnerable to t!e efects o# t!e current 2nancial crisis( %he decrease in
migration >o&s and remittances is thus implicit in the current debate about
Me(ico/s descent into being a Ofailed state.P A Mexican econo&ic collapse1
spurre" b) a "ecrease in t!e &i'rants an" re&ittances upon %!ic! t!e
countr): s econo&) is reliant1 %oul" %ea*en t!e state:s capacit) to
2nance counter-narcotics acti$it)1 increase pa)-rolls to pre$ent political
an" &ilitar) o9cials #ro& corruption relate" to "ru' tra9c*in'1
recuperate t!e "epresse" econo&)1 an" *eep t!eir best an" bri'!test at
!o&e( !ese series o# "e$elop&ents %oul" !a$e a ne'ati$e conse.uence
#or t!e Unite" States econo&) an" t!e Oba&a a"&inistration1 as %ell(
Mexico is t!e Unite" States: t!ir" lar'est export &ar*et1 an" t!e c!eap
labor t!at Mexican i&&i'rants pro$i"e1 alt!ou'! not nearl) as co$ete"
'i$en t!e current recession1 is an i&portant part o# t!e national econo&)(
A""itionall)1 Mexico:s potential econo&ic an" &ilitar) collapse "eser$es
to be $ie%e" as a national securit) t!reat to t!e U(S(1 'i$en t!e sprea" o#
"ru'-relate" $iolence to bor"er states suc! as Ari5ona1 %!ere aut!orities
bla&e a rise in !o&e in$asions an" *i"nappin's on or'ani5e" cri&e #ro&
sout! o# t!e bor"er(
BeBo Lab Water Af
Mex Econ Q7 Dru' War
Mexican econo&ic 'ro%t! is *e) %eapon in "ru' %ar
2atherine C. S!oic!et 17, Hatin #merica <e&s ;esk Cditor at 2<<, graduate of
+arvard :niversity. JhttpKGG&&&.cnn.comG242G44G2QGpoliticsGme(ico-president-
intervie&M C+7
Creatin' &ore econo&ic opportunities %ill be MexicoKs 'reatest %eapon in
t!e %ar on "ru's, the countryNs president-elect said %uesday. S%hat, 5 think, is
going to be the best &ay my government can prevent organi?ed crime,S President-
elect Cnri$ue Pena <ieto told 2<<Ns Wolf 0lit?er. Wit!out /obs an" social
pro'ra&s1 !e sai"1 J&illions o# &) countr)&en !a$e no ot!er option t!an
to "e"icate t!e&sel$es so&eti&es to cri&inal acti$it).S %he &ide-ranging
intervie& &as recorded Aust a fe& hours before the incoming leader met &ith :.1.
President 0arack .bama in Washington. 5n his @rst meeting &ith .bama, Pena
=ieto sai" !e planne" to #ocus on buil"in' trust an" boostin' econo&ic
ties to create /obs. Me(ican leader eyes economic ties &ith :.1. SWeNve lost
presence and competitiveness on the international market. ... %hereNs still space, an
opportunity, to achieve greater integration as far as productivity, &hich &ill allo& us
to improve the competitive conditions for creating Aobs across <orth #merica,S he
said. Pena <ieto, !E, said his security strategy &ill focus on reducing the "ru'-
relate" $iolence that too* H+1+++ li$es "urin' !is pre"ecessorKs six-)ear
ter&, though he provided fe& speci@cs about ho& he &ould stem the violence or
&hat aspects of outgoing President 7elipe 2aderonNs strategy he &ill change. SWe
%ill *eep the policies that 5 think &ork,S he said, Sincluding cooperation %it! t!e
Unite" States to efecti$el) 2'!t or'ani5e" cri&e(J
BeBo Lab Water Af
Water Suppl) Brin*
An" usable supplies are on t!e brin* , Mexico is runnin' out
o# %ater
;ina Z11
/atricia G#ressing Water Crisis in Me2ico CityI a /olitical an >nstitutional /erspectiveH
K-8Me2icoK-8CityK-8WaterL8.p$ March
Me2ico City Metropolitan #rea 7MCM#;, a.4.a. Greater Me2ico City, is the thir biggest !etropolitan area in the 6orl, 6ith !ore than -8 !illion inhabitants 7-881;.
>ts relentless urbani&ation rate, having <uaruple its population in the last =+ years as sho6n in $igure -, has resulte in a city con$iguration that covers Me2ico City
7a.4.a. Feeral Bistrict; an part o$ the a@acent states o$ Me2ico an 5ialgo. /opulation gro6th in MCM# 7thousans o$ habitants; >n -881, the Feeral Bistrict
accounte $or about 1 !illion people 6hereas the rest o$ the habitants o$ the city live pri!arily in the State o$ Me2ico. #s a result o$ the urbani&ation pattern, MCM#
is currently con$or!e by !ultiple political an a!inistrative entities, 6hich are groupe in three !ain boiesI Feeral Bistrict an its .9 boroughs, +1 peripheral
urban !unicipalities that belong to the State o$ Me2ico, an a !unicipality o$ the State o$ 5ialgo. >n this SY/# 6e o not iscuss the situation in the State o$ 5ialgo
that belongs to the MCM# ue to its li!ite relevance 7it is only one !unicipality;, instea 6e $ocus on the proble!s in the Feeral Bistrict an the State o$
Me2ico. Water situation in Greater Mexico City is dramatic: limited supply of surface water,
quality of water in aquifers threatened due to the lack of wastewater treatment and
insufficient control over hazardous wastes, and largescale land su!sidence due to the over
exploitation of aquifers and soil compression" (his city is an e2a!ple o$ uncontrolle urban e2pansion an
environ!ental eterioration: !any e2perts preict that the region is reaching not only its ecological li!its, but also its technological an social
li!its Greater Mexico City receives approximately #$% of its water from groundwater" "atural
springs an su!!er rains $ro! the sierras an !ountains are the !ain source o$ 6ater to the a<ui$er. &owever, toay more water is
leaving the system than entering it" (he !ain a<ui$er, Me2ico Valley a<ui$er, is being pu!pe at a rate o$ =+-+= !Js, but natural recharge
6ater is only about -8!Js about =+K o$ the 6ater use in Greater Me2ico City is supplie by over-e2ploiting the a<ui$er. #l!ost *+K o$ the e!an in the Feeral
Bistrict an the State o$ Me2ico is urban or o!estic e!an. >nustrial use accounts only $or about -K o$ the total an agriculture is responsible $or the rest o$ the
6ater use: ho6ever, agricultural use is !ore relevant in the State o$ Me2ico an it is pri!arily riven by areas that are not consiere to be part o$ Greater Me2ico
City. # i$$erent representation o$ the stress level that the natural resources supplying 6ater to Greater Me2ico City currently su$$er. >n -88*, in the Valley o$ Me2ico,
6hich co!prises the Feeral Bistrict, the !unicipalities o$ the State o$ Me2ico that belong to Greater Me2ico City, an a part o$ the State o$ 5ialgo, 6ater
abstractions 6ere e<uivalent to .*-K the sustainable e2traction rate establishe by the natural recharge rate. Stress level on 6ater resources in Greater Me2ico City
Many o$ these proble!s have a technical origin an re<uire a technical solution: ho6ever, the institutional an political $ra!e6or4 in Me2ico can also be an obstacle
to resolve these proble!s, co!plicating long-ter! ecision-!a4ing an creating an obstacle $or strategic planning. #s "orth escribes, Gthe institutional $ra!e6or4 is
a co!posite o$ rules, in$or!al constraints, an their en$orce!ents characteristics MNO (hey are the rules o$ the ga!e an there$ore e$ine the 6ay the ga!e is playe.H
>n Greater Me2ico City, the rules $or 6ater !anage!ent are establishe at the $eeral, regional, an local level. >nstitutional $rag!entation is a !a@or challengeI
ecisions epen on the Feeral Govern!ent, the govern!ent o$ Feeral Bistrict an its .9 boroughs, the !unicipalities o$ the States o$ Me2ico an 5ialgo P each
6ith an inepenently electe representative P an the private sector co!panies involve in service provision. For!ally, the roles an the responsibilities o$ each party
are e$ine: ho6ever, in practice, these responsibilities are o$ten not clear an overlap 6ith each other. #s an e2a!ple, an esti!ate '$% of the total
water supplied to the Greater Me2ico City is lost through leaks in the water distri!ution systems and
through ineffective coordination policies !etween the various levels of government" >n aition to
the institutional $ra!e6or4, the political conte2t o$ Me2ico can be another source o$ ine$$iciencies $or 6ater !anage!ent. Me2ican local govern!ents have been
characteri&e by clientelis! an patronage net6or4s. (hus, 6ater in Me2ico is o$ten consiere as a resource to e2ercise political po6er an the political parties try to
e2ploit it to their o6n bene$it. (he political i!ension an po6er asy!!etries in the use o$ 6ater are 4ey ele!ents to unerstan regional interactions an ecision-
!a4ing in ter!s o$ access, e2ploitation an control o$ 6ater. #s iscusse in the previous section, Greater Mexico City uses more water
than 6hat can be sustainably supplied"
Water scarcit) an" .ualit) are 'ro%in' proble&s t!at are
reac!in' crisis con"itions(
#lthough the highly publici?ed &ater dispute bet&een the :nited 1tates and Me(ico
has focused attention in both nations on the issue, the need to address
comprehensively the problem of &ater scarcity and &ater $uality is not one that is
limited to the :.1.-Me(ico border region. 5n fact, &ater scarcity is increasing around
the &orld and approaching crisis conditions in many regions. 5t is a phenomenon
that is impacting the lives of a gro&ing number of the &orld/s people. #ccording to
the :nited <ations, F4 countries in the &orld are currently facing &ater stress and
BeBo Lab Water Af
scarcity. .ver 4 billion people have no access to clean drinking &ater, and almost F
billion people have no access to sanitation services. 5t is estimated that today 4EE
million people in 46 countries su3er from &ater scarcity, &hile another 2Q million
in 44 additional countries are considered O&ater stressed.P 0y the year 229, the
&orld/s population &ill have increased by more than 2.E billion, but as many as t&o-
thirds of those people &ill be living in conditions of serious &ater shortage, and one-
third &ill be living &ith absolute &ater scarcity. 0y 229, the a3ected populations
&ill increase to about F billion people, or about ! percent of the &orld/s population,
most of them in the poorest countries. #s a result of this daunting diagnosis, there is
no& a consensus that the severity of the problem re$uires a strategic approach that
emphasi?es e$uitable and sustainable management of &ater resources.
BeBo Lab Water Af
;ollution Brin*
Water on t!e bor"er is extre&el) pollute"
)eorge 0. 0ris$ol"a and Margriet 7 Cas%el :11 %ransboundary &ater
management )ame-theoretic lessons for proAects on the :1-Me(ico border-
!e bor"er:s &ost serious public !ealt! proble& is lac* o# access to sa#e
"rin*in' %ater an" se%a'e treat&ent( Man) people on bot! si"es o# t!e
bor"er lac* access to potable %ater an" connections to se%er s)ste&s.
8ohnstone notes that OJuare51 a cit) o# o$er 1(I &illion "oes not !a$e an)
treat&ent #acilities %!atsoe$er (p. !!"P. 5n exas an" =e% Mexico1 o$er D++
+++ people li$e in colonias - lo& income, unincorporated subdivisions typically
lac*in' electricit)1 pa$e" roa"s1 potable %ater1 or se%a'e treat&ent
:ntreated se&age is a maAor transboundary e(ternality, as pollute" %ater Ao%s
nort!%ar" #ro& Mexican to A&erican cities( !e cit) o# =ue$o Lare"o
"eposits 7D &illion 'allons per "a) (mgd@ o# ra% se%a'e into t!e 8io
<ran"e In i/uana1 o$er 1+ &'" o# untreate" se%a'e1 co&bine" %it!
in"ustrial %aste1 Ao% into t!e i/uana 8i$er and 1an ;iego (8ohnstone,- 50W2,-
Minute 26F". 7lo&s of se&age into the ocean have led to fre$uent beach closures in
1an ;iego ()anster,". %he <e& Biver - >o&ing north from the Me(i- 2ali *alley,
through the 5mperial *alley, and into the 1alton 1ea has the dubious distinction of
being one of the most polluted rivers in the :nited 1tates (Kishel,- 8ohnstone,-
)anster,". %he <ogales Wash, a tributary of the 1anta 2ru? Biver, >o&s through
<ogales, 1onora and #ri?ona. ;uring summer rains, ra& se&age >o&s into the Wash
and through neighborhoods on bot! si"es o# t!e bor"er ?In'ra& an" W!ite1B
Para") et al(1@( <iar"ia an" cr)ptospori"iu& !a$e been "etecte" in t!e
Was! an" t!e a.ui#er ser$in' as t!e pri&ar) %ater source #or bot! cities
(*arady and Mack,".
BeBo Lab Water Af
Waste Water Mis&ana'e"
Current %aste%ater treat&ent &ec!anis&s are not properl)
&ana'e"1 accor"in' to stu") on t!e 8[o <ran"e basin
Ban"ala1 S\nc!e5-Salas R Li 17 (Crick, 8ose, Rilin S%he Bole of %echnology
on 1afe ;rinking Water Production and its Belationship &ith Public 1afety in the :.1.-
Me(ico 0order BegionS Puentes 2onsortium
#s sho&n in %able 2, &ater $uality varies along the river. 1ome previous reports
dealing &ith the &ater $uality in the Bao 0ravoGBao )rande basin have noted the
signi@cant impact of dissolved solids related to anthropogenic activities along the
stream (Phillip and Michelsen 244". %hese authors have found that salinity is the
main &ater $uality issue along the basin capable of impacting both potable and
agriculture irrigation &ater supply (see 7igure 2". 5t is interesting to observe in
7igure 2 that the concentration of total dissolved solids (%;1" becomes higher as
one moves do&nstream. %he data analy?ed for this paper sho&s also this trend'but
it does not, in general, apply to the other parameters included in %able 2, probably
due to the settling e3ect occurring at the di3erent dams built along the stream. %he
data in %able 2 sho&s a high average concentration of fecal coliforms at most of the
sampling sites. %he presence of these pathogenic microorganisms is related to
untreated or poorly treated &aste&ater discharges from &aste&ater treatment
facilities, malfunctioning septic systems, andGor cattle &astes that are not properly
managed along the river or its tributaries, and may be the source for &aterborne
diseases if &ater is not properly treated before human consumption.
It is possible to re$itali5e %aste%ater plants into sustainable
ecos)ste&s #or co&&unities
;ostel 13 (1andra, director of )lobal Water Policy ProAect S.nce a 1melly
<uisance, Me(icaliNs Waste&ater <o& 0rings Hife to the 2olorado ;eltaS <ational
)eographic 9-,
5f there is one place that transforms &aste&ater from trouble-maker to life-saver it/s
the site of Has #renitas se&age treatment plant in the Me(ican state of 0aAa
2alifornia. %here, nasty urban &aste&ater that once made a smelly health ha?ard of
the <e& Biver near the :.1.-Me(ico border is no& sustaining a &ondrous &etland
and bird-&atchers/ paradise in the north&est corner of the 2olorado Biver ;elta. 5n
this &ay, Has #renitas Aoins Ha 2ijnega de 1anta 2lara D the Oaccidental &etlandP D
in sho&casing the revival possible by adding &ater to the once-verdant, but no&
desiccated delta. Hocated about 4E miles (2E kilometers" southeast of the border
city of Me(icali, Has #renitas at @rst glance looks like any municipal &aste&ater
treatment plant. # big underground pipeline daily delivers nearly 2 million gallons
of Me(icali/s se&age, &hich then undergoes conventional physical, biological, and
chlorination processes to remove bacteria and other harmful pollutants.
JDI13 F+
BeBo Lab Water Af
;roper co&&unication an" in#or&ation s!arin' is *e) to
pre$entin' %il"2res
Margaret Wil"er et al( 131 #ssociate Professor, 2enter for Hatin #merican 1tudies, )regg )ar@n
(:niversity of #ri?ona", Paul )anster (5nstitute for Begional 1tudies of the 2alifornias, 1an ;iego 1tate :niversity",
+allie Cakin (#ri?ona 1tate :niversity", Patricia Bomero-Hankao (<2#B", 7rancisco Hara-*alencia (#ri?ona 1tate
:niversity", #lfonso #. 2orte?-Hara (2olegio de la 7rontera <orte", 1tephen Mumme (2olorado 1tate :niversity",
2arolina <eri (<ational #utonomous :niversity of Me(ico", 7rancisco MuIo?-#rriola (1cripps 5nstitution of
.ceanography" Cliate Change an! U"S"-#e$ico %or!er Counities page F94
Cli&atic #actors inclu"in' !i'!er a$era'e te&peratures since t!e 1GO+s
an" exten-S si$e "rou'!ts !a$e contribute" to con"itions #or increase"
%il"2re, as have land-use\ changes and @re-suppression strategies (Williams et al.
24". %he seasonality of tem-\ perature and precipitation changes is especially
critical- !i'!er te&peratures1 earlierS sprin' %ar&in'1 an" "ecrease"
sur#ace %ater contribute to an increase in %il"2resS (Mac;onald 24".
;rought-related bark beetle damage has had devastating e3ects on\ 1outh&est
forests. O$erall1 Willia&s an" collea'ues ?7+1+@ esti&ate t!at
approxi&atel)S 7(O] o# Sout!%estern #orest an" %oo"lan" area
experience" substantial &ortalit) "ueS to %il"2res #ro& 1GFD to 7++H1 and
appro(imately Q.EW e(perienced mortality due to\ bark beetles or &ild@re during
this period.\ Wil"2re an" lan"-use &ana'e&ent pla) a lar'e role in
controllin' t!e outbrea* o#S %il"2res1 an" cli&ate in#or&ation s!oul" be
an i&portant aspect o# t!e plannin' process(S C(pected climatic changes &ill
alter future forest productivity, disturbance regimes, and\ species ranges throughout
the 1outh&est (Williams et al. 24". Peak @re-suppression\ periods vary from region
to region, &ith important implications for decision making\ around &ild@re
(2orringham, Westerling, and Morehouse 26- Westerling et al. 244".\ While @re
managers in the 1outh&est :nited 1tates are integrating short-term &eath-\ er and
climate information into their planning, long-term forecasts are less utili?ed due\ to
a perceived lack of reliability (2orringham, Westerling, and Morehouse 26".
rans-S bor"er e&er'enc) response to %il"2res is anot!er critical ele&ent
o# efecti$e &ana'e-S &ent( E$ents suc! as %il"2res J"o not respect
a"&inistrati$e boun"ariesJ ?<=EB 7++F1S 7@( rans-bor"er co&&unication-
s!arin' an" response s)ste&s ?as appropriate@ can a""S to re'ional
resilience an" i&pro$e #orest sustainabilit)(
JDI13 F1
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NNCase oolboxLL
JDI13 F7
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JDI13 F3
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In!erenc) , 0un"in'
IBWC %ater &ana'e&ent issues "ue to unco&plete" pro/ects
an" un"er#un"in'
2armen Ma'an"a 17, 2oordinator of the 0i-national 0order Water ProAect for the
2enter for :.1.-Me(ican 1tudies at the :niversity of 2alifornia, 8ournal of Political
Ccology, *ol. 4,, pages 6E-6Q
JhttpKGGApe.library.ari?ona.eduGvolumeL4,GMaganda.pdfM C+7
%he cultural problems of &ater management along the Me(ico-:1 border are
primarily related to citi?en activity. 5n fact, bi-national cooperation in civil society
surrounding &ater issues e(ists (1abet 22", and so the main cultural di=culties in
the region are directly tied to multi-level governance and the aforementioned
Sborderless &orld.S 5n terms the @rst sphere of border studies, it is interesting to
note that many management decisions are signi@cantly a3ected by institutional
norms. 1ince the inception of the 50W2G25H#, this 2ommissionNs authority has faced
one maAor limitationK it can only act in $uestions that directly a3ect the international
boundary that separates Me(ico from the :1 (Mumme and 0ro&n 22". %hus, like
o=cials in many supranational institutions (+i( 4,,,", the members of the
2ommission have been signi@cantly in>uenced by institutional norms pushing
integration in order to increase its sphere of in>uence. %his is absolutely necessary
from the 2ommissionNs point of vie& because its &ork has recently been critici?ed
as anti$uated due to its limited po&ers. 5n fact, many of its proAects and suggestions
have not been follo&ed by local border authorities or @nanced by the national
governments. Moreover, it has been critici?ed for being slo& and overly
bureaucratic. Maganda 0order &ater culture 8ournal of Political Ccology *ol. 4,,
242 6Q 5t is important to note the formal and informal dimensions of border &ater
politics along the Me(ico:1 divide. %he 4,!! %reaty does not address numerous
important $uestions, such as the promotion of environmental values, the domestic
distribution and urban consumption of &ater, agricultural uses of &ater and
protection for border communities from >oods and droughts. 7or this reason, &ater
management has been traditionally characteri?ed by informal agreements bet&een
local o=cials that addressed the needs of communities on both sides of the border.
Many observers attributed such cooperation to the e(istence of shared norms in
border communities concerning the need to ma(imi?e the sustainability of &ater
resources (0ennett 4,,9- Michel 2". %he notion of culture undergirding this
interpretation is tied to trust, shared values, and community, and local o=cials
cooperated across borders in order to ma(imi?e &ater e=ciency. 7ollo&ing this
argument, then, one could state that the recent decision to pave the #ll-#merican
2anal and to prevent ground&ater from seeping into Me(ico signi@es a breakdo&n
of the border &ater culture in 1outhern 2alifornia, because it demonstrates self-
interested behavior. 5s this actually the caseV 0y e(amining this speci@c case, &hich
concerns the bi-national 2olorado Biver 0asin, 5 argue that the behavior of local
&ater authorities does not demonstrate a cultural breakdo&n. Bather it is a
reinforcement of institutional norms through the creation of a Sborderless &orld.S #s
leaders &ork to e(pand globali?ed urban economies, they pursue the &ater
resources necessary to achieve their goals. Whereas the regional economies that
characteri?ed the Me(ico-:1 border facilitated cooperation in &ater management,
the economic e(pansion promoted by the <orth #merican 7ree %rade #greement
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(<#7%#" broke economic partnerships &hich created less incentive for collaboration
in the @eld of &ater distribution.
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In!erenc) , =o Data S!arin'
=o "ata s!arin' an" bu"'et cuts #or "ata collection no% ,
#un"in' *e) to binational cooperation(
Wil"er et al in 17 (Margaret, Jeremy Slac5, Rober Varady, Christopher Scott, Andrea Prichard,
*arabara Moreho$se, mily McGo!ern, 6scar #ai, Rachel *eaty" 7oint pro7ect by the %dall Center for
St$dies in P$blic Policy % of Ari&ona" )%rban 8ater V$lnerability and (nstit$tional Challenges in Ambos
Nogales,/ Moving Forward from Vulnerability to Adaptation: Climate Change, Drought, and ater
Demand in the !rbani"ing #outhwestern !nited #tates and $orthern Me%ico"
Water resource plannin' alon' t!e U(S(-Mexican bor"er !as historically pro$en
c!allen'in'. %he border region represents an intersection of varying levels of local, state, and federal po&er
and responsibilities. Lac* o# a"e.uate 2nancial resources an" insu9cient
'o$ern&ent co&&it&ent on both sides to resol$e %ater an" en$iron&ent
issues in #mbos <ogales !a&per efecti$e &ana'e&ent( Bu"'et cuts !a$e
re"uce" &ana'e&ent resources #or i&portant &ana'e&ent a'encies li*e
t!e E;A:s ?binational@ Bor"er 7+17 an" t!e ADW8( 0ecause #mbos <ogales shares an
a$uifer (Milman and 1cott 24", &ater and &aste&ater management re$uires binational cooperation and
coordination. !e success o# this binational cooperation "epen"s on the follo&ingK a
clear articulation o# t!e rele$ant scienti2c in#or&ation to decision-makers- a high
level of local participation- t!e 2nancial an" tec!nical support o# binational
environmental or'ani5ationsB an"1 efecti$e 'o$ern&ental polic) t!at pro$i"es
t!e le'al #ra&e%or* #or e9cient resource &ana'e&ent.
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In!erenc) , =o Cooperation
=o binational cooperation no% , t!e US an" Mexico execute
plans %it!out consultati$e #ra&e%or*s %!ic! "isrupts
eac! ot!er:s %ater policies(
Margaret Wil"er et al( 13, #ssociate /ro$essor, Center $or Latin #!erican Stuies, Gregg Gar$in 7University o$ #ri&ona;,
/aul Ganster 7>nstitute $or %egional Stuies o$ the Cali$ornias, San Biego State University;, 5allie 'a4in 7#ri&ona State University;, /atricia
%o!ero-Lan4ao 7"C#%;, Francisco Lara-Valencia 7#ri&ona State University;, #l$onso #. Corte&-Lara 7Colegio e la Frontera "orte;, Stephen
Mu!!e 7Colorao State University;, Carolina "eri 7"ational #utono!ous University o$ Me2ico;, Francisco MuQo&-#rriola 7Scripps
>nstitution o$ Rceanography; Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Border Communities page F+8
ShttpIJJs6carr.ari&ona.euJsitesJe$aultJ$ilesJ#CCSWUSLCh.9.p$T '5F
(ransbounary cooperation to aress the i!pacts o$ cli!ate variability an cli!ate change is essential to
pro!oting the best outco!es an to builing regional aaptive capacity on both sies o$ the borer.
Bespite $or!al agree!ents bet6een the Unite States an Me2ico to cooperate to resolve 4ey
transbounary environ!ental proble!s 7e.g., La /a& #gree!ent: Minute F89;, there are recent i!portant e2a!ples
6here lac4 o$ cooperation has le to subopti!al 7e.g., 6in-lose rather than 6in-6in; outco!esI U >n -88-, Me2ico
invo4e its privilege to eclare conitions o$ Ge2traorinary roughtH on the %io Grane an 6ithhel
elivery o$ irrigation 6ater to (e2as $ar!ers, causing !illions o$ ollars in losses. U When the Unite
States e2tene the security $ence at the borer bet6een "ogales, #ri&ona, an "ogales, Sonora, it 6as one
6ithout re$erence to local hyrological conitions an 6ithout input $ro! o$$icials on the Me2ico sie.
Floo6aters in -88* beca!e i!poune behin the $ence on the "ogales, Sonora sie o$ the borer, causing
!illions o$ pesos 6orth o$ a!age in Sonora. U (he lining o$ the #ll-#!erican Canal 7##C; 6as co!plete in -88*, uner
$or!al protest an a$ter legal challenges by Me2ican an U.S. groups. (he change resulte in increase 6ater $or househols in San Biego
County an ecrease 6ater $or $ar!ers in 0a@a Cali$ornia. Far!ers in the irrigation istrict o$ Me2icali ha use
groun6ater recharge by seepage $lo6s $ro! the earthen-line canals $or over si2ty years, an concrete-lining o$ the ##C
stoppe groun6ater recharge an there$ore reuce groun6ater availability
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War&in' Ine$itable
War&in' is ine$itable re'ar"less o# actions ta*en
;rinn an" ;altse) in 1+ (Bonald Prinn k 1ergey Paltsev k #ndrei 1okolov k
Marcus 1aro@m k 8ohn Beilly k +enry 8acoby, 8oint Program on the 1cience and Policy
of )lobal 2hange, Massachusetts 5nstitute of %echnology, 2ambridge, M#
O1cenarios &ith M5% integrated global systems modelK signi@cant global &arming
regardless of di3erent approachesP
!e broa"er i&plication o# t!ese scenarios is t!at all see substantial
continue" increases in te&perature t!at %oul" create serious
en$iron&ental concerns( I# %e rule out t!e !i'!est (#475, #2, and Beference"
as unt!in*able an" t!e lo%est (Hevel 4" as possibl) unac!ie$able %e arri$e
at a scenario-"epen"ant te&perature increase ran'in' #ro& about 7(I to
D(I^ co&pare" to present. Suc! increases %ill re.uire consi"erable
a"aptation o# &an) !u&an s)ste&s an" %ill lea$e so&e aspects o# t!e
eart!:s en$iron&ent irre$ersibl) c!an'e"( ;articularl) at ris* are t!e polar
re'ions %!ere %ar&in' is a&pli2e"( 2hanges there &ill bring potentially large
disruptions to coastal regions due to sea level rise as signi@cant amounts of the
land ice sheets melt. %his &as the case in the last interglacial period (Cemian" &hen
temperatures &ere no higher than these proAected levels. %hus, t!e re&ar*able
aspect o# t!ese "iferent approac!es to scenario "e$elop&ent "ra%n #ro&
in"ustr)1 a national 'o$ern&ent sponsore" stu")1 an" an
inter'o$ern&ental process is not t!e "iferences in "etail an" p!ilosop!)
but rat!er t!e si&ilar picture t!e) paint o# a %orl" at ris* #ro& cli&ate
c!an'e e$en i# t!ere is substantial efort to re"uce e&issions #ro&
re#erence con"itions(
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War&in' T 8eal
War&in' is real1 !u&an cause"1 an" t!e pre"ictions o# its
i&pacts are not exa''erate"1 e$en #or&er s*eptics a'ree
Muller in 17(Bichard #., professor of physics at the :niversity of 2alifornia,
0erkeley, and a former Mac#rthur 7oundation fello&, is the author, most recently, of
OCnergy for 7uture PresidentsK %he 1cience 0ehind the +eadlines.P O%he 2onversion
of a 2limate-2hange 1kepticP httpKGG&&&.nytimes.comG242GQGFGopinionGthe-
2#HH me a converted skeptic. %hree years ago 5 identi@ed problems in previous
climate studies that, in my mind, thre& doubt on the very e(istence of global
&arming. Last )ear1 #ollo%in' an intensi$e researc! efort in$ol$in' a "o5en
scientists1 I conclu"e" t!at 'lobal %ar&in' %as real an" t!at t!e prior
esti&ates o# t!e rate o# %ar&in' %ere correct( I:& no% 'oin' a step
#urt!er> Cu&ans are al&ost entirel) t!e cause( M) total turnaroun", in
such a short time, is t!e result o# care#ul an" ob/ecti$e anal)sis b) t!e
Ber*ele) Eart! Sur#ace e&perature pro/ect1 &hich 5 founded &ith my
daughter Cli?abeth. .ur results sho& that t!e a$era'e te&perature o# t!e
eart!:s lan" !as risen b) t%o an" a !al# "e'rees 0a!ren!eit o$er t!e past
7I+ )ears1 inclu"in' an increase o# one an" a !al# "e'rees o$er t!e &ost
recent I+ )ears. Moreo$er, it appears li*el) t!at essentially all o# t!is
increase results #ro& t!e !u&an e&ission o# 'reen!ouse 'ases. !ese
2n"in's are stron'er t!an t!ose o# t!e Inter'o$ern&ental ;anel on
Cli&ate C!an'e, the :nited <ations group that de@nes the scienti@c and
diplomatic consensus on global &arming. 5n its 2Q report, the 5.P.2.2. concluded
only that most of the &arming of the prior 9 years could be attributed to humans.
5t &as possible, according to the 5.P.2.2. consensus statement, that the &arming
before 4,9E could be because of changes in solar activity, and that even a
substantial part of the more recent &arming could be natural. Our Ber*ele) Eart!
approac! use" sop!isticate" statistical &et!o"s "e$elope" lar'el) b) our
lea" scientist1 8obert 8o!"e1 %!ic! allo%e" us to "eter&ine eart! lan"
te&perature &uc! #urt!er bac* in ti&e. We care#ull) stu"ie" issues raise"
b) s*eptics> biases #ro& urban !eatin' (&e duplicated our results using rural
data alone", #ro& "ata selection (prior groups selected fe&er than 2 percent of
the available temperature stations- &e used virtually 4 percent", #ro& poor
station .ualit) (&e separately analy?ed good stations and poor ones" an" #ro&
!u&an inter$ention an" "ata a"/ust&ent ?our &ork is completely automated
and hands-o3". In our papers %e "e&onstrate t!at none o# t!ese potentiall)
troubleso&e efects un"ul) biase" our conclusions. %he historic temperature
pattern &e observed has abrupt dips that match the emissions of kno&n e(plosive
volcanic eruptions- the particulates from such events re>ect sunlight, make for
beautiful sunsets and cool the earth/s surface for a fe& years. %here are small, rapid
variations attributable to Cl <iIo and other ocean currents such as the )ulf 1tream-
because of such oscillations, the O>atteningP of the recent temperature rise that
some people claim is not, in our vie&, statistically signi@cant. W!at !as cause"
t!e 'ra"ual but s)ste&atic rise o# t%o an" a !al# "e'reesV We trie" 2ttin'
t!e s!ape to si&ple &at! #unctions ?exponentials1 pol)no&ials@1 to solar
acti$it) an" e$en to risin' #unctions li*e %orl" population. B) #ar t!e best
&atc! %as to t!e recor" o# at&osp!eric carbon "ioxi"e1 &easure" #ro&
at&osp!eric sa&ples an" air trappe" in polar ice. 8ust as important, our
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record is long enough that &e could search for the @ngerprint of solar variability,
based on the historical record of sunspots. %hat @ngerprint is absent. #lthough the
5.P.2.2. allo&ed for the possibility that variations in sunlight could have ended the
OHittle 5ce #ge,P a period of cooling from the 4!th century to about 469, our data
argues strongly that the temperature rise of the past 29 years cannot be attributed
to solar changes. %his conclusion is, in retrospect, not too surprising- &e/ve learned
from satellite measurements that solar activity changes the brightness of the sun
very little. +o& de@nite is the attribution to humansV %he carbon dio(ide curve gives
a better match than anything else &e/ve tried. 5ts magnitude is consistent &ith the
calculated greenhouse e3ect ' e(tra &arming from trapped heat radiation. %hese
facts don/t prove causality and they shouldn/t end skepticism, but they raise the
barK to be considered seriously, an alternative e(planation must match the data at
least as &ell as carbon dio(ide does. #dding methane, a second greenhouse gas, to
our analysis doesn/t change the results. Moreo$er1 our anal)sis "oes not
"epen" on lar'e1 co&plex 'lobal cli&ate &o"els1 t!e !u'e co&puter
pro'ra&s t!at are notorious #or t!eir !i""en assu&ptions an" a"/ustable
para&eters( Our result is base" si&pl) on t!e close a'ree&ent bet%een
t!e s!ape o# t!e obser$e" te&perature rise an" t!e *no%n 'reen!ouse
'as increase.
JDI13 G+
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=ot Enou'! Data
!ere:s not enou'! "ata on !)"roc)cles in t!e context o#
cli&ate c!an'e1 &a*es &o"els an" plannin' "i9cult to
Coole) in 17 (+eather- 2o-;irector of the Paci@c 5nstitute/s Water Program and
M1 in Cnergy and Besources T 0erkeley- OWater and 2limate,P A Twenty-First
Century US Water Policy- ed 8uliet 2hristian-1mith and Peter )leick- p."
!e efects o# cli&ate c!an'e on %ater "e&an" are #ar less stu"ie" than
are the impacts on hydrology. 5ndeed, the 2limate 2hange 1cience Program report
fails to mention impacts on &ater demand. .verall, ho&ever, "e&an"s #or %ater
in so&e sectors are sensiti$e to cli&ate1 particularl) a'riculture an" urban
lan"scapes1 an" are li*el) to increase( ;lants typically re.uire &ore %ater
as te&peratures rise, although higher atmospheric carbon dio(ide concentrations
can reduce &ater re$uirements under some conditions. Because a'riculture
accounts #or about H+ percent o# %ater use in t!e Unite" States (Kenny et al.
2,",4 "e&an" c!an'es in t!is sector &a) !a$e broa" i&plications. In
some urban areas1 la%ns an" other out"oor uses are &a/or consu&ers o#
%ater1 accountin' #or up to O+ percent o# total resi"ential %ater use in
so&e !ot1 "r) areas1 an" t!ese "e&an"s %oul" increase un"er !otter
te&peratures( War&er te&peratures %ill also increase t!e a&ount o#
%ater nee"e" #or coolin' s)ste&s. More researc! is nee"e" on t!ese kinds
of cli&ate-sensiti$e "e&an"s, on a regional basis.
Water &ana'e&ent is #ailin'
Balph #. Wurbs 7+13 may 4F 24F &ater allocation systems
Allocatin' %ater resources t!at are !i'!l) $ariable bot! te&porall) an"
spatiall) a&on' a &)ria" o# %ater &ana'e&ent entities an" nu&erous
%ater users %it!in an institutional settin' t!at !as e$ol$e" !istoricall)
o$er &an) )ears is necessaril) co&plex . %he follo&ing concerns highlighted by
the %e(as e(perience are illustrative of the numerous comple(ities in creating and
administering &ater allocation systems. 0or &ost o# exas1 t!e %ater ri'!t
per&it s)ste& is a"&inistere" %it!out %ater &aster operations( :pon
re$uest, the %2CR takes enforcement action to stop reported unauthori?ed &ater
use in violation of &ater rights permits. Co%e$er1 %ater users are not closel)
&onitore" except "urin' "rou'!ts or e&er'enc) con"itions( !is approac!
is si&ilar to &ost %estern states. 1everal &estern states have &ater-master
operations, but most states do not. %he %2CR during 242-24F is investigating the
feasibility of e(panding &ater master operations in %e(as. %he %2CR Ho&er Bio
)rande Water Master .=ce maintains a precise accounting of &ater use, &orking
closely &ith irrigators, cities, and the 5nternational 0oundary and Water
2ommission. With completion of the adAudication process during the late 4,6/s,
plans &ere developed to establish &ater-master operations in all of the maAor river
basins of %e(as. %he 1outh %e(as Water-Master Program &as created in the late
JDI13 G1
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4,6/s &ith responsibilities for 4QE Water Besources Planning, ;evelopment and
Management the )uadalupe, <ueces, and 1an #ntonio Biver 0asins. Co%e$er1
%ater users are reluctant to !a$e re.uire&ents i&pose" upon t!e& #or
installin' &eters an" &onitorin' an" re'ulatin' "i$ersions( ;olitical
pressures !a$e pre$ente" t!e establis!&ent o# %ater-&aster o9ces in
ot!er ri$er basins( +o&ever, the %e(as Hegislature in 242 directed the %2CR to
solicit public input and develop recommendations for establishing &ater master
operations for other river basins. Since strea& Ao%1 e$aporation1 reser$oir
se"i&entation1 %ater use1 an" ot!er #actors are !i'!l) $ariable1 an" t!e
#uture is un*no%n1 %ater a$ailabilit) &ust be $ie%e" #ro& a reliabilit)1
li*eli!oo"1 or percent-o#-ti&e perspecti$e( ra"eofs occur bet%een t!e
a&ount o# %ater to co&&it #or bene2cial use an" t!e le$el o# reliabilit)
t!at can be ac!ie$e"( Bene2cial use o# %ater is base" on assurin' a !i'!
le$el o# reliabilit)( Co%e$er1 i# %ater co&&it&ents are li&ite" as re.uire"
to assure an extre&el) !i'! le$el o# reliabilit)1 t!e a&ount o# strea& Ao%
a$ailable #or bene2cial use is constraine"1 an" a 'reater proportion o# t!e
%ater Ao%s to t!e ocean or is lost t!rou'! reser$oir e$aporation. %he
optimal level of reliability varies &ith type of &ater use. Water allocation decisions
necessarily re$uire $ualitative Audgment in determining acceptable levels of
reliability both in terms of the reliability of the proposed ne& or increased &ater use
and the impacts on the reliabilities of all of the e(isting &ater users.
JDI13 G7
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JDI13 G3
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US Data Qe)
:1 Key - .ther climate data providers lack the technical $uality and archive
necessary for e3ective climate monitoring
Marbur'er1 et al , O Physicist and 7ormer ;irector of .1%P (8ohn +. Marburger
is an #merican physicist &ho &as the 1cience #dvisor to the President and the
;irector of the .=ce of 1cience and %echnology Policy in the administration of
President )eorge W. 0ush. O# PH#< 7.B # :.1. <#%5.<#H H#<; 5M#)5<) PB.)B#MP
7uture of Hand 5maging 5nteragency Working )roup- #ugust 2Q-
!e utilit) an" i&portance o# &o"erate-resolution lan" i&a'in' data !a$e
been pro$en #or a ran'e o# critical applications #or ci$il1 &ilitar)1 an"
intelli'ence nee"s1 )et t!e Unite" States !as ne$er establis!e" an
operational pro'ra& centere" on a &o"erate resolution lan" i&a'in'
capabilit). #lthough the <ation has permanent, operational space-based
observation programs for &eather forecasting and for study of the atmosphere and
oceans, t!ere is currentl) no polic) or plan #or a parallel lan" i&a'in'
pro'ra&. 5n addition, t!e Unite" States is no lon'er t!e onl) supplier o#
&o"erate-resolution lan" i&a'in' "ata. %oday, 0rance1 <er&an)1 Japan1
In"ia1 C!ina1 an" Bra5il possess or are buil"in' lan" i&a'in' satellites
t!at1 at least in so&e respects1 are si&ilar to t!e Lan"sat satellite s)ste&
(see #ppendi( 0 for details of international land imaging capabilities". O$er t!e
next #e% )ears1 t!ese countries inten" to increase t!eir s)ste&s:
capabilities suc! t!at t!e) &a) ri$al to"a):s Lan"sat in bot! .ualit) an"
co$era'e. Ot!er nations are /oinin' t!is list1 alt!ou'! t!ese s)ste&:s "ata
.ualit)1 i&a'in' capabilities1 or ot!er s)ste& c!aracteristics &a) pre$ent
ac.uisition o# 'lobal "ata on a scale or %it! a #re.uenc) or .ualit)
co&parable to Lan"sat. 0urt!er&ore1 no ot!er nation !as an arc!i$e o#
!istoric lan" i&a'er) co&parable to t!e 3I-)ear 'lobal recor" t!e Unite"
States &aintains #ro& Lan"sat( 0inall)1 obtainin' suc! "ata #ro& #orei'n
sources in$ol$es reliabilit) an" securit) ris*s.
Data 'ap can:t be sol$e"( Alternati$e satellites are not
capable to &eet t!e nee"s(
Wul"er et al , 11 (Michael # Wulder, 2anadian 7orest 1ervice, Paci@c 7orestry
2entre, <atural Besources 2anada- 8oanne 2. White, 0iospheric 1ciences 0ranch,
<#1# )oddard 1pace 7light 2enter- 8e3ery ). Masek, 0iospheric 1ciences 0ranch,
<#1# )oddard 1pace 7light 2enter- 8ohn ;&yer, 0iospheric 1ciences 0ranch, <#1#
)oddard 1pace 7light 2enter- O0iospheric 1ciences 0ranch, <#1# )oddard 1pace
7light 2enterP- Reote Sensing of Environent (#n 5nterdisciplinary 8ournal that
serves the remote sensing community &ith the publication of results on theory,
science, applications and technology of remote sensing of Carth resources and
environment"- Bemote 1ensing of Cnvironment 449 (244" Q!Q-Q94-
Handsat is uni$ue in o3ering a high spatial resolution (F m" over a large image
footprint (469l469 km" &ith high $uality and calibrated radiometric characteristics
BeBo Lab Water Af
(Wulder et al., 26b". Handsat data are also collected follo&ing a long-term ac$uisition plan (H%#P" to ensure
global coverage (#rvidson et al., 24" &ith collected imagery stored and made available
through an open access archive (Woodcock et al., 26". %o mitigate a possible gap in
Handsat imaging, <#1# and the :1)1 convened an interagency ;ata )ap 1tudy %eam, &hich identi@ed
alternate data sources (focusing on 5B1, 20CB1" and also characteri?ed the spectral, radiometric,
geometric, and spatial characteristics of these sources (2hander, 2Q". While 2hander (2Q" summari?e these
characteristics in detail, that include baseline speci@cations for spectral bands, b49W error in at-sensor radiance,
pi(els si?ed 4 to 4 m pi(el dimensions, geographic and band-to-band registration targets, and global
observation of all land areas bet&een m64.2n latitude at least t&ice per year. Po&ell et al. (2Q" also
identify the criteria re$uired for a particular sensor to be considered similar to
Handsat. 1everal programs and sensors are identi@ed (e.g., 1P.%, 5B1, 20CB1, #1%CB, and #H5"
as having the potential to address a gap in Handsat operations. While these communications
can be consulted for lists of sensor characteristics and performance, from an applications point of vie&, speci@c
user needs should guide the selection of alternate data source (Wulder et al., 26b". 7or instance, even if
spatial, spectral, and temporal characteristics are appropriate, users should be
mindful of the implications of smaller image footprints (leading to increased data management
re$uirements and variable vie& angles bet&een adAacent images", do&nlink capabilities, image
availability (on-demand or systematic collection and archiving", access to the imagery, and
capacity to share unencumbered by restrictive data policies. %o note ongoing developments,
the 2ommittee on Carth .bservation 1atellites (2C.1" is &orking to develop, through a *irtual 2onstellation
concept, the capacity to incorporate the assets of various space programs to produce coordinated and
complementary observations. .f pertinence to the continuity of observations in support of terrestrial ecosystem
characteri?ation, the 2C.1 *irtual 2onstellation for Hand 1urface 5maging is aligning applicable space agencies to
ma(imi?e the integration of current satellite-based observations and to recommend appropriate future missions
(Hoveland et al., 26".
US satellite "ata is *e) , no ot!er countr) !as t!e tec!nical
i&a'es or t!e arc!i$e necessar) to trac* c!an'es(
Marbur'er1 et al , O Physicist and 7ormer ;irector of .1%P (8ohn +. Marburger
is an #merican physicist &ho &as the 1cience #dvisor to the President and the
;irector of the .=ce of 1cience and %echnology Policy in the administration of
President )eorge W. 0ush. # PH#< 7.B # :.1. <#%5.<#H H#<; 5M#)5<) PB.)B#MP
7uture of Hand 5maging 5nteragency Working )roup- #ugust 2Q-
A&on' t!e &o"erate-resolution satellite s)ste&s "e$elope" an" Ao%n b)
$arious nations, t!e U(S( Lan"sat satellite series is uni.ue an"
unparallele" in t!e %orl". 1ince 4,Q2, Lan"sat satellites !a$e pro$i"e" "ata
#or bot! U(S( an" 'lobal nee"s, and these data are essential #or &eetin' t!e
nee"s o# &an) le$els o# 'o$ern&ent1 inclu"in' 0e"eral1 State1 local1 an"
tribal /uris"ictions( 1uch "ata are critical in national and global agricultural
assessments performed by the :.1. ;epartment of #griculture and provide
essential data #or U(S( international a'encies. 7or e(ample, t!e U(S( A'enc)
#or International De$elop&ent:s 0a&ine Earl) Warnin' S)ste& =et%or*
currentl) uses Lan"sat i&a'er) #or #oo" securit) applications #or
nu&erous nations in A#rica1 t!e Mi""le East1 an" Central Asia( 5n addition,
numerous :.1. and international land cover programs rely on Handsat data for
human health and ecological planning. Lan"sat "ata are also use" #or U(S(
national an" !o&elan" securit) operations( !ree c!aracteristics &a*e
t!e existin' U(S( &o"erate-resolution lan" i&a'in' s)ste& uni.ueK i
Lan"sat is t!e onl) &o"erate-resolution satellite t!at pro$i"es 'lobal
clou"-#ree co$era'e of the entire Carth/s land surface on a seasonal basis. i !e
ra"io&etric1 spectral1 an" 'eo&etric .ualit) o# Lan"sat:s i&a'er) is
BeBo Lab Water Af
unparallele" an" its co$era'e across se$eral *e) spectral ban"s is uni.ue
a&on' t!e %orl":s satellites.F i !e 3I-)ear-ol" U(S( Lan"sat arc!i$e ,
managed by the :.1. )eological 1urvey, is a uni.ue repositor) o# satellite
i&a'er)1 allo%in' accurate co&parisons o# natural an" !u&an-in"uce"
c!an'es on t!e Eart!:s sur#ace o$er se$eral "eca"es(
BeBo Lab Water Af
AA; Sol$enc)
al*s are efecti$e , pro$en b) Ar'entina an" C!ile
2hristcpher #. Scott et al 13, 7rancisco 8. Meia, Pobert . varady, +olm+essen , 8amie McCvoy ,
)regg m. oar@n , Margaret &ilder, mis m. 7arfn , <icols Pineda Pabtos b Clrra Momaa (24F" &ater 1ecurity and
#daptive Management in the #rid #mericas, #nnals of the #ssociation of #merican )eographers. 4FK2, 26-26,,
22 K
lb link to the articleK i'or Jbi doi.crtN- K i KpMN vK-S.o Ko-M
0ut, as our case studies indicate, the decade-anda-half e(periences of our research
team have sho&n that even in the sometimes turbulent crucible of the :.1.DMe(ico
border region, common &ater management obAectives can trump dissimilar
interests. %he scientists, decision makers, o=cials, and others'from both sides of
the border'have generally demonstrated that they can overcome cultural, legal,
administrative, and infrastructural disparities. #t their most successful, such
sessions have yielded agreement on the need for binational cooperation, more and
better data and information, harmoni?ed scienti@c protocols, collaborative research,
and mutually acceptable priorities for confronting &ater insecurity resulting from
drought and >ood e(tremes, ecosystem change, and rising human demand for
&ater. 7acilitated by team members, the dialogues &ere e(tended to #rgentine and
2hilean scientists and o=cials &ho met &ith community members and agreed to
&ork to reduce threats to #ndean &ater security'by alleviating drought damage
and addressing social ine$uity in the agricultural sector'even as glaciers continue
to recede at alarming rates.
Collaboration is pro$en to %or*
2hristcpher #. Scott et al 13, 7rancisco 8. Meia, Pobert . varady, +olm+essen , 8amie McCvoy ,
)regg m. oar@n , Margaret &ilder, mis m. 7arfn , <icols Pineda Pabtos b Clrra Momaa (24F" &ater 1ecurity and
#daptive Management in the #rid #mericas, #nnals of the #ssociation of #merican )eographers. 4FK2, 26-26,,
22 K
lb link to the articleK i'or Jbi doi.crtN- K i KpMN vK-S.o Ko-M
2ase e(amples from our e(peri-\ ences in building institutional adaptive capacity of
di-\ verse stakeholders illustrate the bene@ts and challenges\ of collaborative
approaches.\ %he :.1.'Me(ico border region has e(hibited\ a history of
transboundary collaboration on shared\ &ater and environmental resources
(7ischhendler and\ 7eitelson 2F" as &ell as legal frame&orks that support\ such
collaboration (Ha Pa? #greement of 4,6F- Minute\ FE addition to 4,!! :.1.'
Me(ico &ater treaty, in\ 2". #voidable &ater-insecurity risk has resulted,\
ho&ever, &hen the :nited 1tates or Me(ico opted\ not to collaborate- this
represents a societal threshold\ potentially crossed (7igure 4". #n e(ample is the
26\ impoundment of >ood&aters causing damage in Me(ico\ &hen the :nited
1tates e(tended the border fence\ &ithout ade$uate consideration of local
BeBo Lab Water Af
A"apti$e Mana'e&ent Sol$enc)
A"apti$e %ater &ana'e&ent sol$es
2hristcpher #. Scott et al 13, 7rancisco 8. Meia, Pobert . varady, +olm+essen , 8amie McCvoy ,
)regg m. oar@n , Margaret &ilder, mis m. 7arfn , <icols Pineda Pabtos b Clrra Momaa (24F" &ater 1ecurity and
#daptive Management in the #rid #mericas, #nnals of the #ssociation of #merican )eographers. 4FK2, 26-26,,
22 K
lb link to the articleK i'or Jbi doi.crtN- K i KpMN vK-S.o Ko-M
#daptive management, &hich @rst emerged from\ ecosystems theory and practice
(+olling 4,Q6", rapidly\ gained appeal in the analysis of social-ecological\ systems
(0erkes and 7olke 4,,6" and coupled\ human'natural resilience (<elson, #dger,
and 0ro&n\ 2Q". #daptive &ater management accounts for\ uncertainty through
>e(ible planning, kno&ledge\ sharing'especially bet&een scientists and decision\
makers'and enhanced capacity to respond re>e(-\ ively to multiple and uncertain
processes of change (Pahl-Wostl et al. 2Q". #lthough the concept of\ adaptive
management has been lauded in &ater policy circles, t&o criti$ues center on (4"
assumptions by proponents that key decisions over &ater allocation,\
infrastructure, and outcomes are apolitical (*o0 and\ 0ornemanne 244"- and (2"
ambiguity over the end\ goal of adaptive management (Pahl-Wostl et al. 2Q".\
We argue @rst that the science'policy interactive\ process cannot be blind to the
political nature of de-\ cision making (this is discussed in further detail in the\ ne(t
section". 1econd, our framing of &ater security\ in 1C+ terms re$uires a clearer end
goal to guide\ science'policy discussions. 0ased on our e(perience\ &orking &ith
stakeholders, &e consider it fundamental\ to align the de@nition of adaptive
management &ith\ &ater security as an outcome goal, albeit one that must\ be
understood in dynamic and re>e(ive terms. .ur\ de@nition follo&sK #daptive &ater
management is the\ science'policy process to plan interactively for societal,\
ecosystem, and hydroclimatic uncertainties- initiate\ responsive action- and
iteratively assess &ater security\ outcomes in societal and ecosystem resilience
BeBo Lab Water Af
Data Q7 ;re"ictions
;roper "ata s!arin' *e) to $eri#)in' pre"ictions
Margaret Wil"er et al( 131 #ssociate Professor, 2enter for Hatin #merican 1tudies, )regg )ar@n
(:niversity of #ri?ona", Paul )anster (5nstitute for Begional 1tudies of the 2alifornias, 1an ;iego 1tate :niversity",
+allie Cakin (#ri?ona 1tate :niversity", Patricia Bomero-Hankao (<2#B", 7rancisco Hara-*alencia (#ri?ona 1tate
:niversity", #lfonso #. 2orte?-Hara (2olegio de la 7rontera <orte", 1tephen Mumme (2olorado 1tate :niversity",
2arolina <eri (<ational #utonomous :niversity of Me(ico", 7rancisco MuIo?-#rriola (1cripps 5nstitution of
.ceanography" Cliate Change an! U"S"-#e$ico %or!er Counities page F94
%he border region considered here is characteri?ed by high aridity and high tempera-\ tures. %ypically, about half of
the eastern part of the regionNs precipitation falls in the\ summer months, associated &ith the <orth #merican
monsoon, &hile the maAority of\ annual precipitation in the 2alifornias falls bet&een <ovember and March. %he
region\ is subAect to both signi@cant inter-annual and multi-decadal variability in precipitation.S4\ %his variability,
associated &ith C<1., has driven droughts and >oods and challenged\ hydrological planning in the region.iv 7urther
challenging this understanding is a pau-\ city of data, particularly on the high-altitude mountainous regions in
northern Me(ico.\ Diferences in t!e a$ailabilit) o# !i'!-.ualit) an" continuous
&eteorolo'ical an" !)-\ "rolo'ical recor"s spannin' lon' perio"s o# ti&e1
an" relati$el) poor "ata s!arin' co&-\ plicate un"erstan"in' o# t!e bor"er
re'ionKs cli&ate( !e scarcit) o# suc! "ata &a*es it\ "i9cult to $eri#)
cli&ate &o"el pro/ections at 2ne spatial scales(\ Also1 reconcilin'
"iferences in pro/ecte" c!an'es in te&perature1 base" on 'lobal cli-\
&ate &o"el ?<CM@ stu"ies con"ucte" separatel) b) U(S( an" Mexican
scientists ?able\ 1H(1@1$ is co&plicate" b) t!e #act t!at ?1@ t!e) use
"iferent sets o# &o"els #ro& t!e I;CC\ 0ourt! Assess&ent arc!i$eB ?7@
t!e) use "iferent &et!o"s o# "o%nscalin' output #ro&\ coarse spatial
scale &o"els to 2ner re'ional spatial scalesBJ ?3@ in so&e cases t!e) "o
not\ use t!e sa&e 'reen!ouse 'as ?<C<@ e&issions scenariosB ?D@ t!e)
a$era'e #uture pro/ec-\ tions #or "iferent spans o# )earsB an" ?I@ t!e) use
"iferent spans o# )ears #or pro$i"in'\ a &easure o# a$era'e !istorical
cli&ate( Ci'! .ualit) "ata are essential #or statisticall)\ "o%nscalin' <CM
output( %hus, issues &ith meteorological observations add to several\ other sources of uncertainty (see
discussion in 2hapters 2 and 4,".
BeBo Lab Water Af
Data *7 Mana'e&ent
Data s!arin' is *e) to efecti$e &ana'e&ent , Onl) t!e plan
E;A 7++I
O)ood <eighbor Cnvironmental 0oard Water Besources Management on the :.1.-
Me(ico 0order,P
Li&ite" %ater supplies1 couple" %it! an increasin' "e&an" #or %ater
resources1 !a$e lea" to co&petition an" so&eti&es ani&osit). %he desire
to drill more and more individual &ells to &ithdra& supplies from a$uifers that have
yet to be character - i?ed can only gro& stronger under such drought conditions.
So&e %ater &ana'ers an" in"i$i"uals %or*in' an" obser$in' current
%ater use tren"s alon' t!e bor"er belie$e t!is %ill lea" to a 3bi-national
%ater-suppl) crisis(4 7rom the perspective of the )ood <eighbor Cnvironmental
0oard, t!e ris*s associate" %it! "ata s!arin' are tri$ial co&pare" %it! t!e
ris*s o# %ater &ana'e&ent "ecisions &a"e %it! poor an"Mor ina"e.uate
JDI13 1++
BeBo Lab Water Af
Sol$es 8elations
7ailure to address &ater management leads to various con>icts &ith
CSIS G 2enter for 1trategic and 5nternational 1tudies, U"S" Trans&oun!ary Water #anageent' The Case of Rio
(ran!e) Rio %ravo * Recoen!ations for Policya+ers in the #e!iu an! ,ong-ter Page 4,
JhttpKGGcsis.orgG@lesGmediaGcsisGpubsGbinationalLcouncil.pdfM C+7
(he council recogni&es that $ailure to ae<uately aress U.S.-Me2ico transbounary 6ater !anage!ent
coul generate a estabili&ing !i2ture o$ value con$licts 6ithin an bet6een our t6o nations. (his con$lict
coul pit rural against urbanJ!unicipal co!!unities, inigenousJ"ative #!erican people against at large populations, an international coalitions
o$ econo!ic evelop!ent avocates against har-line environ!entalists. We also recogni&e that any progress on a binational level 6ill re<uire an
interisciplinary approach that is co!prehensive an inclusive. (he inclusive nature o$ the issue is o$ para!ount
i!portance, as our nations continue the tren to6ar ecentrali&ation an the e!po6er!ent o$ nu!erous
actors. (he council hopes that this report not only sti!ulates thin4ing on this issue, but also helps to generate the political 6ill
re<uire on both sies o$ the borer to achieve e<uitable an sustainable transbounary 6ater
JDI13 1+1
BeBo Lab Water Af
8elations Spillo$er
Binational cooperation creates resilienc) #or bot! in$ol$e"
Cur" 13 (0rian, Professor of #gricultural Cconomics T <M1: S2limate
*ulnerability and #daptive 1trategies #long the Bio )randeGBio 0ravo 0order of
Me(ico and the :nited 1tatesS. 8ournal of 2ontemporary Water Besearch b
Cducation. httpKGGonlinelibrary.&iley.comGdoiG4.4444GA.4,FE-Q!c.242.F42Q.(Gfull"
Begional adaptive responses across borders could increase resilience and decrease
vulnerability to climatic changes. 1uch cross-border approaches can emerge
through shared social learning and kno&ledge, by creating binational communities
of practice, such as among &ater managers or disaster-relief planners, and by
addressing ine$uities resulting from uneven development.
US-Mexico %ater cooperation is li*el) to s!o% positi$e
i&pacts1 inclu"in' increase" #uture collaboration an" an
exa&ple #or ot!ers
Cur" 13 (0rian, Professor of #gricultural Cconomics T <M1: S2limate
*ulnerability and #daptive 1trategies #long the Bio )randeGBio 0ravo 0order of
Me(ico and the :nited 1tatesS. 8ournal of 2ontemporary Water Besearch b
Cducation. httpKGGonlinelibrary.&iley.comGdoiG4.4444GA.4,FE-Q!c.242.F42Q.(Gfull"
:pon assessing three distinct e3orts at binational cooperation along the #ri?ona-
1onora border, Wilder et al. (24" conclude that adaptive potential across the
border is promising and likely to sho& positive impacts. 2ontinued e3orts follo&ing
Wilder et al. in these directions sho& distinct &ays for co-adaptation that not only
contributes to building regional adaptive capacity in response to climate change but
o3ers a glimpse to&ard cooperative strategies that may bene@t e3orts to manage
other binational resources and o3er a template to other regions.
JDI13 1+7
BeBo Lab Water Af
Mexico Sa)s 6es
Bot! si"es %ill %or* to'et!er co!esi$el) #or t!e purpose o#
i&pro$e" %ater &ana'e&ent
Para") et al 11 (Bobert, Besearch Professor of Cnvironmental Policy and of #rid
Hand 1tudies T : of #ri?ona. SWater 1ecurity and #daptive Management in the #rid
#mericasS #nnals of the #ssociation of #merican )eographers.
0ut, as our case studies indicate, the decade-and-a-half e(periences of our research
team have sho&n that even in the sometimes turbulent crucible of the :.1.DMe(ico
border region, common &ater management obAectives can trump dissimilar
interests. %he scientists, decision makers, o=cials, and others'from both sides of
the border'have generally demonstrated that they can overcome cultural, legal,
administrative, and infrastructural disparities. #t their most successful, such
sessions have yielded agreement on the need for binational cooperation, more and
better data and information, harmoni?ed scienti@c protocols, collaborative research,
and mutually acceptable priorities for confronting &ater insecurity resulting from
drought and >ood e(tremes, ecosystem change, and rising human demand for
JDI13 1+3
BeBo Lab Water Af
JDI13 1+D
BeBo Lab Water Af
JDI13 1+I
BeBo Lab Water Af
A ;ri$ati5ation
;ri$ati5ation #ails #or Mexico , !e) %ill re/ect an" t!e poor
%on:t be ser$ice"( Ma*es it a ba" &o"el
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
+o&ever, pri$ati5ation has brou'!t #er$ent opposition. 5n March 2E,
t!ousan"s o# people &arc!e" t!rou'! Mexico Cit) protestin' %ater
pri$ati5ationB it %as t!e 2rst ti&e an en$iron&ental issue !a"
&obili5e" so &an) people. 442 Many fear that Opro2t-"ri$en co&panies
%ill be reluctant to ser$e t!e poorP 44F and &ill take advantage of
gratuitous price increases. 44! Water sol" as a co&- &o"it) is o#ten
onl) afor"able to t!e pri$ile'e" an" can "eepen ine.ualities be-
t%een t!e ric! an" poor. 449 8ecent pri$ati5ation pro/ects !a$e not
been success#ul1 even in poor, develop- ing nations. 44E In Latin A&erica,
for e(ample, 3pri$ate concessions !a$e exacer- bate" ine.uities in
access to %ater b) #ocusin' ser$ices in lucrati$e urban 5ones an"
i'norin' areas %!ere t!e nee" is %orst.P 44Q C(perts have also declared
one of the &orld/s largest privati?ation e3orts, taking place in the Philippines,
a fail- ure because of substantial increases in &ater rates, &ater losses due to
inade$uate infrastructure, and insu=cient private funding to maintain
programs for the ur- ban poor. 446
;ri$ati5ation #ails in t!e =ile Basin
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
<ile 0asin nations cannot a3ord the risk of increased civil protest or violence.
%he director of the 5nternational Belations 2enter #mericas Program, Haura
2arl- son, e(claimed, 3XtY!e pri$ati5ation &o"el #or %ater use an"
"istribution !as #aile" to "eli$er( It:s ti&e to &a*e roo& #or ne%1
&ore "e&ocratic1 alterna- ti$es(4 44, )lobally, public opinion is
stron'l) a'ainst pri$ate-sector &ana'e&ent o# %ater resources, 42
an" people &ore o#ten $ie% %ater as a basic !u&an ri'!t t!at
s!oul" not be &ana'e" b) pri$ate co&panies. 424
;er& "o bot! , ;ri$ati5ation #ails to sol$e t!e =ile Basin
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
%he general contention among international practitioners and commentators is that
it is not possible to establish a generic model of &ater la& applicable to all nations.
4!, Xet, 'reat pro'ress can be &a"e in t!e =ile Basin i# t!e riparian nations
JDI13 1+H
BeBo Lab Water Af
supple&ent t!e =BI b) extractin' #eatures #ro& t!e recent United States'
Mexico ne'otiations1 t!e pri$ati5ation &o"el, and the human rights model. o
pre$ent #uture conAict, 0asin nations should focus on their common interests and
develop a central institution backed by private funding that has the po&er to
enforce agreements, &hich maintain >e(ible standards of &ater alloca- tion and
JDI13 1+O
BeBo Lab Water Af
A C8 Approac!
Cu&an ri'!ts approac! to %ater #ails t!e =ile Basin , no
&ec!anis& o# en#orce&ent an" %ill ta*e too lon' to
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
+o&ever, reco'ni5in' %ater as a !u&an ri'!t is not t!e best
&ec!anis& #or brin'in' a ti&el) solution to t!e proble&s o# t!e =ile
8i$er Basin. Cstablishing a human right to &ater is purported to help reduce
poverty by raising the living standard, but there is no guarantee of such a
result. 4!9 W!ile t!e ri'!t to #oo", for instance, is reco'ni5e" as a
!u&an ri'!t1 %i"esprea" #a&ine still exists. 4!E 7ur- thermore, t!e
unstable an" i&po$eris!e" nations o# t!e =ile Basin %oul" !a$e
extre&e "i9cult) en#orcin' clai&s o# "epri$e" %ater accessB
especially claims regarding co-riparian nations. 5n countries that currently
recogni?e &ater as a human right, like 1outh #frica, the local courts
adAudicate accountability in situa- tions of misuse. 4!Q +o&ever, suc! an
en#orce&ent &ec!anis& %oul" be inefec- ti$e a'ainst co-riparian
nations as .uestions o# /uris"iction1 an" t!e responsibilities
nei'!borin' states o%e one anot!er are )et to be "e2niti$el) an-
s%ere"( Moreover, most <ile 0asin countries su3er from dysfunctional
Audicial systems and most Audges are unable to adAudicate &ater disputes
e3ectively be- cause government administrative institutions often undermine
the independence of Audiciary systems. 4!6 W!ile a !u&an ri'!t to %ater
&a) e$entuall) beco&e custo&ar) international la%1 %it! rapi"l)
"i&inis!in' resources1 increasin' po$- ert)1 an" continuin' political
instabilit)1 t!e riparian nations o# t!e =ile Basin cannot %ait until
t!at ti&e co&es(
;er& "o bot! , Cu&an ri'!ts approac! can:t sol$e =ile Basin
Lau"icina 7+13
Hee #., 8uris ;octor candidate at Hoyola :niversity 2hicago 1chool of Ha&, 26. +e
received a 0achelor of #rts from the :niversity of Michigan, 29. 8anuary F4,
O5nternational Water ;isputesK +o& to Prevent a War .ver the <ile Biver,P
%he general contention among international practitioners and commentators is that
it is not possible to establish a generic model of &ater la& applicable to all nations.
4!, Xet, 'reat pro'ress can be &a"e in t!e =ile Basin i# t!e riparian nations
supple&ent t!e =BI b) extractin' #eatures #ro& t!e recent United States'
Mexico ne'otiations, the privati?ation model, an" t!e !u&an ri'!ts &o"el( o
pre$ent #uture conAict1 0asin nations should focus on their common interests
and develop a central institution backed by private funding that has the po&er to
enforce agreements, &hich maintain >e(ible standards of &ater alloca- tion and
JDI13 1+F
BeBo Lab Water Af
JDI13 1+G
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A Desalination C;
Desalination strate'ies "iscoura'e sustainabilit) an" lon'
ter& a"aptation(
Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady,
Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy
% of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy
St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of
Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of
Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,-
Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3
Desalination of sea&ater has attracted both attention and @nancing by those &ho
see it as a failproof source of &ater in the study region (Kohlho3 and Boberts 2Q".
#s the cost of desalination has decreased, its appeal for augmentation has risen.
<evertheless, desalination "oes not ran* !i'! in our measures of a"apti$e
potential. #lthough "esalination, as a technological innovation, could meet
increasing demand, it is unli*el) to pro&pt sustainable c!an'e in &ater users/
be!a$iors un"er cli&ate c!an'e. 5n fact, "esalination1 i# not couple" %it!
conser$ation &easures1 enables a business as - usual %ater culture'averse
to social learning'an" "iscoura'es sustainable %ater use( !e re'ion:s
&a/or urban areas %oul" beco&e "epen"ent on both desalination tec!nolo')
an" 'oo" relations bet%een U(S( an" Mexican aut!orities'each of %!ic!
coul" pro$e unreliable.
=o a"apti$e potential #or "esalination an" no &o"el spillo$er ,
&a) actuall) exacerbate consu&ption(
Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady,
Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy
% of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy
St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of
Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of
Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,-
Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3
.verall, then, %e assess the augmentation strategies of "esalination to be of
lo% a"apti$e potential. #ssessed against the identi@ed indicators, the
desalination proposals "o not in$ol$e structure" opportunities #or social
learnin' or c!an'es in institutional culture or polic) priorities. Data
s!arin' %oul" be in the conte(t of formal contract-base" exc!an'es1 rat!er
t!an more per&eable, >uid, relational kinds of *no%le"'e exc!an'es such as
those identi@ed by 2ash et al. (2F". =e% co&&unities o# practice are not
anticipate" to e&er'e #ro& "esalination strate'ies an" binational
relations!ips %ill be strait/ac*ete" %it!in a boun"e" le'al #ra&e%or*. !e
"esalination strate'ies are not onl) unli*el) to a"" to a"apti$e capacit)1
but they coul" lea" to &ore of the entrenc!e"1 le'alistic relations t!at !a$e
sometimes !a&pere" cooperati$e, binational %ater &ana'e&ent in the past.
Absent a conser$ation strate'), t!ese strate'ies enable a status .uo
%ater culture t!at $ie%s "esalinate" sea%ater as a li&itless substitute #or
JDI13 11+
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#res! %ater. 5ronically, increase" inter"epen"ence %ill ensue under the
proposed desalination strategies, re.uirin' i&pro$e" cooperation bet&een the
:nited 1tates and Me(ico, )et t!ese strate'ies "o little to #oster better
co&&unication an" en!ance" collaboration an" t!ere#ore could actually
increase $ulnerabilit).
Desal can:t sol$e all instances an" lea"s to irresponsible use o#
%ater1 i# it #ails t!e proble& %ill be e$en %orse ,
Mana'e&ent strate'ies li*e t!e af are *e)
Eart!al* 7+13
O2an .cean ;esalination 1olve the WorldNs Water 1hortageV,P
0ood b Water Watch a"$ocates instead #or better #res! %ater &ana'e&ent
practices( JOcean "esalination !i"es t!e 'ro%in' %ater suppl) proble&
instea" o# #ocusin' on %ater &ana'e&ent an" lo%erin' %ater usa'e1S the
group reports, citing a recent study &hich found that Cali#ornia can &eet its
%ater nee"s #or t!e next 3+ )ears b) i&ple&entin' cost-efecti$e urban
%ater conser$ation( Desalination is Jan expensi$e1 speculati$e suppl)
option t!at %ill "rain resources a%a) #ro& &ore practical solutions1J the
group says.\ ;espite such arguments, the practice is becoming more common. %ed
Hevin of the <atural Besources ;efense 2ouncil says that more than 42,
desalination plants already supply fresh &ater in 42 nations, mostly in the Middle
Cast and 2aribbean. #nd analysts e(pect the &orld&ide market for desalinated
&ater to gro& signi@cantly over the coming decades. Cnvironmental advocates may
Aust have to settle for pushing to SgreenS the practice as much as possible in lieu of
eliminating it altogether.
Desalination turns a"aptation an" causes 2s!eries collapse ,
&eans #oo" priceMsuppl) is a DA to t!e counterplan(
Wil"er et al in 1+ (Margaret, Christopher A Scott, Nicolas Pineda Pablos, Robert G Varady,
Gregg M Garfin, and Jamie Mc!oy" #atin American St$dies and %dall Center for St$dies in P$blic Policy
% of Ari&ona, School of Geopgraphy and 'e!elopment and %dall Center % of Ari&ona, P$blic Policy
St$dies l Colegio de Sonora, %dall Center % of Ari&ona, (nstit$te of the n!ironment and School of
Nat$ral Reso$rces and n!ironment % of Ari&ona, and School of Geography and 'e!elopment % of
Ari&ona" )Adapting Across *o$ndaries+ Climate Change, Social #earning, and Resilience in the %,S,-
Me.ico *order Region,/ Annals of the Association of American Geographers 011(23" Scholar3
Many conse.uences o# the proposed "esalination' inclu"in' the efects o#
brine OreAectP "isc!ar'e'are not *no%n1 and the results of an environmental
impact study scheduled for completion in ;ecember 26 have not been released.
=o existin' #e"eral la% re'ulates !o% a "esalination plant operates in
Mexico (HUope?-PUere? 2,". Alt!ou'! "e$elopin' ne% sources o# #res!
%ater to au'&ent existin' 'roun"%ater sources %oul" protect a.ui#ers
and potentially allo& them to recover to nearer e$uilibrium levels, percei$e"
li&itless supplies o# %ater likely %oul" encoura'e urban 'ro%t!. %here could
be a""itional i&pacts on t!e #ra'ile estuaries an" 2s!eries o# t!e <ul# o#
Cali#ornia an" potential "isruption o# si'ni2cant ecos)ste&s %!ere t!e
propose" a.ue"uct %oul" tra$erse t!e "esert. Moreover, because Ari5ona
an" =e$a"a %oul" continue to use t!eir #ull allot&ents plus "esalinate"
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suppl)' %it!out re"ucin' current use'no net 'ains to t!e a.ui#ers or to
Colora"o 8i$er allocations likely %oul" be reali5e".
Wi"esprea" "esal collapses ocean bio"
Eart!al* 7+13
O2an .cean ;esalination 1olve the WorldNs Water 1hortageV,P
On t!e en$iron&ental #ront1 %i"esprea" "esalination coul" ta*e a
!ea$) toll on ocean bio"i$ersit)( JOcean %ater is 2lle" %it! li$in'
creatures1 an" &ost o# t!e& are lost in t!e process o# "esalination1J
says 1ylvia Carle, one of the &orldNs foremost marine biologists and a
<ational )eographic C(plorer-in-Besidence. OMost are &icrobial1 but
inta*e pipes to "esalination plants also ta*e up t!e lar$ae o# a cross
section o# li#e in t!e sea1 as %ell as so&e #airl) lar'e or'anis&s_
part o# t!e !i""en cost o# "oin' business,P she says.\ Carle also points
out that the very salty residue left over from desalination must be disposed of
properly, not Aust dumped back into the sea. 7ood b Water Watch concurs,
&arning that coastal areas alrea") battere" b) urban an" a'ricultural
run-of can ill afor" to absorb tons o# concentrate" salt%ater
Bio"i$ersit) loss lea"s to extinction
Diner 'en"er parap!rase" GD
Military Ha& Bevie& Winter 4,,! 4!F Mil. H. Bev. 4E4 HC<)%+K FE99 &ords
#B%52HCK %+C #BMX #<; %+C C<;#<)CBC; 1PC25C1 #2%K W+.N1 C<;#<)CB5<)
W+.MV <#MCK M#8.B ;#*5; <. ;5<CB 05.K 8udge #dvocate )eneralNs 2orps, :nited
1tates #rmy.
(iologically diverse ecosystems are characterized !y a large num!er of specialist species,
filling narrow ecological niches" )hese ecosystems inherently are more sta!le than less diverse
systems " *)he more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist a stress" " " "
+l,ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others !y several strands, such a fa!ric can
resist collapse !etter than a simple, un!ranched circle of threads -- 6hich i$ cut any6here brea4s o6n as
a 6hole.V n,1 0y causing 6iesprea e2tinctions, hu!ans have arti$icially si!pli$ie !any ecosyste!s. #s biologic si!plicity
increases, so oes the ris4 o$ ecosyste! $ailure. (he spreaing Sahara Besert in #$rica, an the ustbo6l conitions o$ the .1F8s in the
Unite States are relatively !il e2a!ples o$ 6hat !ight be e2pecte i$ this tren continues. (heoretically, each new ani!al or plant
extinction , with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects, could cause total ecosystem
collapse and human extinction " -ach new extinction increases the risk of disaster" .ike a
mechanic removing, one !y one, the rivets from an aircraft/s wings , n0$ +hu,mankind may !e
edging closer to the a!yss"
Desal plants cost billions
Onis!i 7+1+
<orimitsu, &riter, O#rid #ustralia 1ips 1ea&ater, but at a 2ost,P
In one o# t!e countr):s bi''est in#rastructure pro/ects in its !istor)1
Australia:s 2$e lar'est cities are spen"in' W13(7 billion on
"esalination plants capable of sucking millions of gallons of sea&ater from
the surrounding oceans every day, removing the salt and yielding potable
JDI13 117
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&ater. 5n t&o years, &hen the last plant is scheduled to be up and running,
#ustralia/s maAor cities &ill dra& up to F percent of their &ater from the sea.
Lon' ter& costs &a*e it 2nanciall) in#easible
Eart!al* 7+13
O2an .cean ;esalination 1olve the WorldNs Water 1hortageV,P
#ccording to the non-pro@t 7ood b Water Watch, "esalinate" ocean %ater is t!e
&ost expensi$e #or& o# #res! %ater out t!ere1 'i$en t!e in#rastructure
costs o# collectin'1 "istillin' an" "istributin' it( !e 'roup reports t!at1 in
t!e U(S(1 "esalinate" %ater costs at least 2$e ti&es as &uc! to !ar$est as
ot!er sources o# #res! %ater. 1imilar high costs are a big hurdle to desalination
e3orts in poor countries as &ell, &here limited funds are already stretched too thin.
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JDI13 11D
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A Spen"in'
!e entire US<S bu"'et is un"er 1(7 billion an" onl) W3+
&illion o# t!at is "e"icate" to %ater , t!e ;resi"ent !as
alrea") inclu"e" so&e &easures to a""ress cli&ate
!)"rolo'ical "ata , t!e af:s increase is a "rop in t!e
US<S in 13 (OPresident/s 24! :1)1 0udget Proposal 1trengthens 1cience,P
;ept of 5nterior, :1)1- httpKGG&&&.usgs.govGne&sroomGarticle.aspV5;_F99E"
President .bamaNs @scal year (06@ 7+1D bu"'et re.uest #or t!e U(S( <eological
Survey is W1(1HO billion, an increase o# WGF(F &illion above the 242 enacted
level, re>ecting the #dministrationNs commitment to scienti@c research and
development as the foundation for innovation, socio-economic &ell-being,
environmental sustainability, and sound decisionmaking. %his includes science to
support the safe and responsible development of domestic energy, protect critical
&ater resources and ecosystems, respond to natural disasters, and advance our
understanding and resilience to the e3ects of climate change.\ %he propose" 24!
US<S bu"'et priorities inclu"e studying energy resources and environmental
issues- a"$ancin' %ater &onitorin' an" a$ailabilit) researc!- supporting the
nation&ide streamgage net&ork- improving the capacity to $uickly and e3ectively
respond to natural ha?ards- providing information needed to protect priority
ecosystems- and enhancing climate change research that is user-focused to address
speci@c needs of natural resource managers across the landscape.\ S%he :1)1
prides itself in providing relevant and reliable Carth science, and our range of
speciali?ed e(pertise makes us a leader in supporting the PresidentNs focus on
research and development,S said acting :1)1 ;irector 1u?ette Kimball. S1tarting
&ith science is the foundation for making decisions that ensure the safety of our
<ation and a robust and resilient economy. %he proposed budget supports programs
that are uni$ue to the :1)1, ultimately enhancing understanding of our land, its
resources, and potential ha?ards that face us.S\ Proposed :1)1 key increases are
summari?ed belo&. 7or more detailed information on the PresidentNs proposed 24!
budget, visit the :1)1 0udget, Planning, and 5ntegration &ebsite.\ <e& Cnergy
7rontier\ %o ensure a robust and secure energy future for the <ation, President
.bama emphasi?es an Sall-of-the-aboveS strategy, and the :1)1 has an important
contribution in each component of that strategy. Proposed funding increases
totaling `!. million &ill support the e(ploration of geothermal resources on 7ederal
lands as &ell as research to support mitigation of the impacts of &ind energy on
&ildlife. # total of `46.E million, an increase of `4F. million, &ill support
interagency science collaboration bet&een the :1)1, the ;epartment of Cnergy,
and the Cnvironmental Protection #gency to understand and minimi?e potential
adverse environmental, health, and safety impacts of shale gas development
through hydraulic fracturing.\ Water\ #s competition for &ater resources gro&s, so
does the need for better information about &ater $uality and $uantity. 7unding in
the 24! proposed budget includes an increase o# WO(7 &illion to #un" more
than ! strea&'a'es that &ould enhance the ability to monitor high priority sites
sensitive to drought, >ooding, and potential climate change e3ects. %he budget
also inclu"es W77(I &illion #or WaterSMA8, an initiative focused on a
sustainable &ater strategy to address the <ationNs &ater challenges. Water1M#B%
includes the combined e3orts of the :1)1 and the 0ureau of Beclamation.
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JDI13 11H
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;ata sharing is historically supported to build relations D We support
data sharing &ith the C: &ith much more sensitive information
Arc!ic* IM71
Kristin, 1pecialist in Curopean #3airs, O:.1.-C: 2ooperation #gainst %errorism,P
U(S( an" EU o9cials assert t!at considerable pro'ress !as been &a"e
in ne'otiatin' a D;;A1 inclu"in' on pro$isions relate" to "ata
securit), the transparency of data processing, maintaining the $uality and
integrity of information, and oversight. +o&ever, some controversial issues
remain, including purpose limitation, retention times, and redress. Many C:
o=cials and MCPs insist that European citi5ens nee" t!e ri'!t o# /u"icial
re"ress in t!e Unite" StatesB so&e experts belie$e t!at t!e EU %ill
li*el) pus! #or t!e U(S( ;ri$ac) Act o# 1GOD to be a&en"e" to exten"
/u"icial re"ress to EU citi5ens (currently, the :.1. Privacy #ct limits Audicial
redress to :.1. citi?ens and legal permanent residents". :.1. e (perts doubt
that the .bama #dministration &ould agree to this potential C: demand,
given that 2ongress &ould probably not be inclined to pass such an
amendment to the Privacy #ct. !e A"&inistration !as lon' &aintaine"
t!at EU citi5ens &a) see* re"ress concernin' U(S( 'o$ern&ent !a
n"lin' o# personal in#or&ation through agency administrative redress or
Audicial redress through other :.1. la&s, such as the :.1. 7reedom of
5nformation #ct. Anot!er possible point o# contention in U(S(-EU
ne'otiations &a) be %!et!er or not t!e D;;A s!oul" be applie"
retroacti$el) to pre$ious U(S( -EU "ata s!arin' arran'e&ents( 1ome
C: leaders and MCPs support its retroactive application. +o&ever, the :nited
1tates opposes doing so, arguing that it &ould create unnecessary legal unce
rtainty. %he member states and the Curopean Parliament must ultimately
approve any eventual :.1.-C: ;PP# for it to take e3ect. F9