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Emerging Markets

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Introduction

Laurence Ales 1

This version: August 26, 2013

1 These materials are subject to copyright and are being provided for the personal educational use by students enrolled in this course. Any other use, including further reproduction and distribution of the materials (whether in hard copy or electronic form) is strictly prohibited. As an example, you may not copy any of these materials and upload them to any other web sites without the prior permission of the applicable copyright holder.

Your Questions

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Your Questions Slide 2 of 15

In the News

In the News Slide 3 of 15

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In the News

In the News Source: CNN Slide 4 of 15

Source: CNN

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In the News Source: CNN Slide 4 of 15

Emerging “Kind of”-Growing Markets

73-421

Introduction

Laurence Ales

This version: August 26, 2013

1 These materials are subject to copyright and are being provided for the personal educational use by students enrolled in this course. Any other use, including further reproduction and distribution of the materials (whether in hard copy or electronic form) is strictly prohibited. As an example, you may not copy any of these materials and upload them to any other web sites without the prior permission of the applicable copyright holder.

The syllabus

Make sure read the syllabus!

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The syllabus • Make sure read the syllabus! Slide 6 of 15

Details about the course

The class: MW 3:00PM 4:20PM WEH 4709

Office Hours: TH 2:30-4:30 PM

Textbook: No textbook required, some sources used:

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Macroeconomics of emerging markets, Peter Montiel;

Great depressions of the twentieth century, Kehoe-Prescott;

Barriers to Riches, Stephen Parente and Ed Prescott;

The Other Path: The Invisible Revolution in the Third World, Hernando De Soto;

Investing in Emerging Markets: The BRIC Economies and Beyond, Marr and Reynard;

Multinational Firms in the World Economy, Giorgio Navaretti and Anthony Venables.

and Beyond , Marr and Reynard; • Multinational Firms in the World Economy , Giorgio Navaretti

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Hw, Grading and Exams

3 HW - 25% of grade

1 Midterm - 20% of grade

1 Class Presentation - 25%

1 Final - 25% of grade (check CMU website for dates)

5% for attendance and participation + 1% for finding WEH 4709

Grade me:

Online, live, anonymous feedback system:

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WEH 4709 • Grade me: • Online, live, anonymous feedback system: http://tinyurl.com/comments73421 Slide 8 of 15

Class Presentation

At the end of the semester you will be asked to present in front of the class a short original study on a emerging market of your choice.

Presentations will be made by groups of 4 people.

Last 20/30 min

Must display in depth knowledge of the country

Must display usage of tools learned during the course

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Must display in depth knowledge of the country • Must display usage of tools learned during

What will we talk about in this course? I/II

Part I

Lecture 1: Introduction. Country Classification

Lecture 2: Growth Accounting for Emerging markets

Lecture 3: Case study: The 80’s: Chile and Mexico

Lecture 4: Case study: Peru, “The other path”

Lecture 5: The Underground Economy

Lecture 6: From developing to emerging markets

Lecture 7: Studies from the McKinsey Global Institute:

focus on Productivity

Lecture 8: Diagnosis for emerging markets:

Business Cycle Accounting

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Institute: focus on Productivity • Lecture 8: Diagnosis for emerging markets: Business Cycle Accounting Slide 10

What will we talk about in this course? I/II

Part II

Lecture 9: Trade and emerging Markets

Lecture 10: International finance and emerging markets

Lecture 11: China

Lecture 12: FDI and Firms in the global economy

Lecture 13: Debt and Debt Crisis in Emerging Market

Lecture 14: Commodity Prices and Emerging markets

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Lecture 13: Debt and Debt Crisis in Emerging Market • Lecture 14: Commodity Prices and Emerging

What you will get from this course?

By the end of this course the student will be able to

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describe

the properties of an emerging market.

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identify

and quantify the sources of growth that shape

the behavior an emerging market economy.

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understand

how property rights, corruption and bureaucracy

impact the operation of businesses in emerging markets.

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understand

how monetary and trade and exchange rate policies

affect firms and household in emerging market economies.

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understand

the potential sources that might trigger a crisis in a

emerging market.

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understand

the challenges and the opportunities facing

multinational firms operating in emerging markets.

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the challenges and the opportunities facing multinational firms operating in emerging markets. Slide 12 of 15

Testing the anonym-quiz!

On you cellphone go to: http://tinyurl.com/73421quiz Answer the following:

If you choose an answer at random from the ones below, what is your probability of being correct?

1) 25%

2) 25%

3) 60%

4) 50%

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at random from the ones below, what is your probability of being correct? 1) 25% 2)

Testing the anonym-quiz!: new question

On you cellphone go to: http://tinyurl.com/73421quiz Answer the following:

?sdrawkcab nettirw iP ni srebmun ruof tsrif eht era tahW 1) 414.3 2) 141.3 3) 314.1 4) 411.3

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tsrif eht era tahW 1) 414.3 2) 141.3 3) 314.1 4) 411.3 Source: http://www.impossible-quiz.com/ Slide 14

Let’s Start!

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Let’s Start! Slide 15 of 15