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EQUITY MARKETS WEEKLY
UKRAINE, KYIV
DECEMBER 14 ‐ 18, 2009
RESEARCH@ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
+38 (044) 490‐51‐85
Evidently, Rally Won’t Be
World Equity Indices
Index
PFTS Basket Country WOW,% MTD,% YTD,%
Dow Jones Indus. USA ‐1,36 ‐0,15 17,69 World Markets
S&P 500 USA ‐0,36 0,62 22,06 Trend remains up, despite continued volatility.
Nasdaq Comp USA 0,98 3,13 40,24
DAX‐30 Germany 1,30 3,65 21,23 Volatile markets and mixed economic and market news did not prevent some
FTSE‐100 Great Britain ‐1,23 0,12 17,20 equity and other markets from moving higher last week. Global equity markets hit
NIKKEI‐225 Japan 0,34 8,52 14,48 new highs for the year, taking gains to over 20% for the year and over 50% up
RTS Russia 3,21 2,57 123,17
WSE WIG Poland ‐0,16 ‐0,46 44,70
from the March lows. With investors still having an appetite for risk, government
Prague Stock Ex. Czech Republic ‐0,13 ‐0,71 29,18 bonds fell back, weighed down by concerns over continued huge government
PFTS Ukraine ‐2,71 ‐1,34 94,61 deficits. Commodities posted mixed performance, with industrial metals hitting
Commodities new highs, but other commodities struggled to advance in the face of a rally in
the US dollar.
WTD,% MTD,% YTD,% Headwinds to growth are clearly present...
Gold ‐0,35 ‐4,99 26,49 We saw clear examples over the past week of the four key headwinds to growth
Brent Crude Oil 4,99 ‐5,07 23,27 that we have regularly highlighted this year. The problem of excess government
EUR/USD ‐1,90 ‐4,26 2,62 debt was exemplified by Greece, whose sovereign debt is estimated to be 113%
of GDP and where the credit rating was downgraded a notch to BBB+ (from A‐)
Currency Market and left on negative outlook by Standards & Poor’s. Excess consumer debt
900 problems were seen in the UK, where consumer credit is around 100% of GDP, as
875 retail sales in November unexpectedly fell back by 0.3%. Damaged banking
UAH/100 USD
850 systems, as in the UK where bank lending to businesses fell by 7.6% over the year,
825 are constraining the availability of new credit required to fund recovery and
800
expansion. The negative consequences of new regulation were seen in the
Official exchange rate
775 Interbank (bid)
reaction to the new ‘Basel Three’ proposals to require increased bank capital.
Interbank (ask) Such regulation could well prevent future crises, but will be a constraint on short‐
750
term growth. Japanese bank share prices surged by up to 14% on a newspaper
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
report that implementation would be significantly delayed – before falling back
6.
1.
9.
4.
8.
2.
3.
7.
.3
.1
.2
.2
.0
.1
.2
.0
08
09
09
10
10
11
11
12
when the report was denied.
...requiring further stimulus to ensure that growth is sustained.
UX Index VS Trade Volumes
While the Federal Reserve statement noted that “the deterioration in the labor
market is abating”, we believe that these headwinds to growth, described above,
80 1800
Volume, mln UX mean that continued fiscal and monetary support are required to help guarantee
70 1575 further growth. In the US, the passage of a new $155bn stimulus bill is intended
to boost employment.
60 1350 But the fact that economic recovery continues in the face of these obstacles,
50 1125 underpins increasing confidence in the outlook for 2010.
The Fed’s statement that economic activity had continued to increase gave
40 900 investors confidence that the underlying trend, beneath the conflicting headlines,
30 675
is of a sustained economic recovery. The Fed also announced that many of its
unconventional measures, including quantitative easing, would start to be
20 450 unwound in the first half of the year. This move effectively withdraws some of the
10 225
monetary stimulus from the market and may mean that rate hikes will be delayed
longer than currently expected.
0 0 Dollar rally, but pressure remains for emerging market currencies to appreciate.
While the correlation is normally for a stronger dollar to equal weaker commodity
10 6.20
04 1.20 9
.1 09
09
12 9.20 9
.1 09
17 0.20 9
23 9.20 9
.0 09
0 5.2 9
22 6.20 9
.0 09
29 7.20 9
17 7.20 9
.0 09
.1 0
.0 0
.1 0
.0 0
.0 0
2. 00
.0 0
.0 0
20
29 0.20
04 8.20
22 4.20
14 4.20
prices, this was not the case this week, as the cause of the strong dollar was the
2.
0
.0
02
better US economic outlook. So, while gold fell back, industrial metals saw new
highs. But the rise of the dollar provides little help for emerging economies
threatened by inflation. With India reporting food prices up 16.7%, inflation is set
to breach the 6.5% overall target next year. The return of inflation in China also
prompted concerns that the government will seek to stifle over‐heating, leading
to a sell‐off in property shares. One potential part of the solution for these
countries’ inflation problems is currency appreciation, which is likely to be a key
issue for next year.
EQUITY MARKETS WEEKLY
UKRAINE, KYIV
DECEMBER 14 ‐ 18, 2009
RESEARCH@ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
+38 (044) 490‐51‐85
Most liquid shares Ukrainian Market
Average Last week UX‐index showed regular decrease, falling by 2.86% to 1487.83
Ticker price, UAH WOW,% MTD,% YTD,% points (volume blew off to $10.89 mln), PFTS‐index – by 2.71% to 586.58
ZAEN 356,50 2,15 ‐3,63 ‐8,35
UNAF 176,67 2,54 5,75 57,74 points.
CEEN 10,33 3,26 ‐0,64 101,82 The US dollar was strengthened by investors fixed their positions and
UTLM 0,45 ‐5,09 2,95 62,43
MMKI 2,38 8,85 ‐3,65 150,18
“carry” went away from markets (Asia markets indicated). Besides, US
MSICH 1685,33 ‐4,98 5,43 355,50 labour market, housing market and economic improvement (US industrial
BAVL 0,25 ‐2,45 0,08 6,47 production +0.8%) also made US dollar to consolidate. As a result, we
NITR 11,56 ‐2,80 ‐1,42 46,64
DNEN 670,78 ‐3,02 ‐34,88 41,71 could see correction on commodity markets.
SMASH 58,00 0,00 24,91 285,81 In contrast to USA Ukrainian industrial production (IP) fell by 1.9% m/m.
USCB 0,36 ‐3,81 ‐2,05 63,53
DOEN 57,49 ‐8,21 ‐11,25 103,61 State Statistic Committee of Ukraine noted IP decrease in November is
AZST 2,70 ‐0,93 5,00 214,84 seasonal due to shortening in production of foodstuff, building materials
STIR 50,97 3,31 14,88 63,01
ENMZ 171,12 ‐1,46 6,39 224,92
and in machinery and equipment manufacture.
PGOK 26,67 ‐4,48 ‐5,10 127,34 The Government is going to cancel the benefits to metallurgy in March
KVBZ 17,75 ‐0,56 3,50 108,01 2010. “Since the 1st of March 2010 everyone should pay fair market
ALMK 0,14 ‐1,26 13,84 72,68
MZVM 27,50 7,84 ‐1,59 102,75 prices”, ‐ said prime‐minister Tymoshenko on Government’s meeting on
AVDK 10,94 ‐1,06 ‐1,32 134,93 Tuesday. Earlier, government promised to support the mining and
smelting industry till the 1st quarter 2010, so it could be negative sign for
Top Gainers, Losers, Most Actively Traded metallurgists and mining companies.
Top Gainers Other disappointing news was Gazprom’s forecast towards gas prices for
YASK 1,7% Ukraine in the 1st quarter 2010 – $300‐310 per 1 thousand cubic metres
ALMK 3,8%
against $280 our officials’ previous estimates.
Last week, we also had regular financial results of the Ukrainian banking
SGOK 6,0%
system. Net loss was $3.45 billion in January‐November 2009. At the
HRTR 6,0%
same time November net loss was $0.51 billion. Net income was $16.43
FORM 9,4% billion (+24.6% m/m) and expenses – $19.89 billion (+62.1% m/m). The
Top Losers largest part of the expenses was occupied by reserves – they widened 3.6
UTLM 5,2% times to $8 billion (40% of total expenses). As the bankers said before
they would continue to increase reserves till the end of the year. The
DOEN 5,4% news is moderately negative.
AVDK 6,3% All the best!
PGOK 6,8%
Stanislav Zelenetskiy zelenetskiy@art‐capital.com.ua
MSICH 7,7%
Most Actively Traded
UNAF 3677,5
AVDK 4346,7
MSICH 4524,9
ENMZ 8112,6
AZST 9141,9
Volume, mln
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
15,0
17,5
20,0
22,5
25,0
27,5
30,0
32,5
35,0
37,5
40,0
42,5
45,0
47,5
50,0
52,5
55,0
57,5
60,0
62,5
65,0
67,5
70,0
72,5
75,0
77,5
80,0
82,5
85,0
87,5
90,0
92,5
95,0
97,5
100,0
21.08.2009
25.08.2009
ART‐CAPITAL
26.08.2009
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10.09.2009
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21.09.2009
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Weekly Forecasts
01.10.2009
02.10.2009
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09.10.2009
12.10.2009
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02.11.2009
03.11.2009
Equity Markets Weekly
04.11.2009
05.11.2009
06.11.2009
09.11.2009
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30.11.2009
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December 14 ‐ 18, 2009
UX Index
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly December 14 ‐ 18, 2009
World Indices’ Dynamic
Developed Market Equities 5 Days,% 1 Month,% 3 Month,% 6 Month,% 9 Month,% 1 Year,%
World Market Capitalization ‐1,30 ‐0,22 2,30 24,76 48,19 45,96
Dow Jones Indus. USA ‐0,26 0,93 5,94 25,47 31,42 22,75
S&P 500 USA 0,44 2,08 3,96 23,65 33,76 28,14
Nasdaq Comp USA 1,39 4,27 4,26 24,85 41,00 48,16
DJ EuroStoxx 50 Europe ‐0,02 3,28 1,54 20,99 35,66 22,52
FTSE‐100 Great Britain ‐0,49 0,81 2,94 23,69 34,87 22,56
DAX‐30 Germany 0,46 4,72 3,87 22,63 39,23 26,05
Swiss Market Index Switzerland ‐0,43 3,62 2,58 19,49 30,96 19,02
Nikkei‐225 Japan 0,06 7,22 ‐1,80 6,18 17,91 16,42
Hang Seng Hong Kong ‐3,07 ‐6,71 ‐3,47 17,08 48,47 46,20
Emerging Market Equities
MSCI Emerging Market Index ($) ‐2,73 ‐0,84 2,62 29,12 52,81 67,96
S&P Asia 50 Asia ‐2,30 ‐2,88 ‐1,03 22,10 43,03 51,56
CSI 300 China ‐4,61 ‐6,46 8,48 8,84 36,97 83,13
SENSEX India ‐1,84 ‐2,47 ‐1,69 15,10 65,96 74,14
KOSPI South Korea ‐1,20 1,46 ‐4,34 20,56 32,19 47,12
TAIEX Taiwan 0,46 1,36 4,26 22,06 44,57 76,34
New Europe Blue Chip (€) Europe ‐0,74 ‐3,52 ‐0,93 24,93 47,40 32,12
MICEX Russia ‐0,77 3,28 14,55 39,91 62,20 124,50
RTS Russia ‐1,63 ‐0,77 14,11 48,61 89,40 121,75
WIG Poland ‐0,86 0,02 3,57 30,70 55,92 46,09
Prague Stock Ex. Czechia ‐0,48 ‐3,56 ‐4,63 22,59 36,81 27,84
PFTS Ukraine ‐3,18 ‐7,36 15,20 42,58 164,08 92,02
S&P Latin America 40 ($) South America ‐4,13 ‐1,15 9,54 39,28 70,09 92,75
BOVESPA Brazil ‐3,93 ‐0,61 7,21 32,72 54,80 77,89
BOLSA Mexico ‐0,49 3,69 7,74 34,11 54,80 42,01
Bonds
USA Treasuries USA 0,00 0,00 0,00 3,09 ‐2,79 ‐5,32
EMU Bonds Europe 1,41 1,00 3,63 8,74 8,32 4,95
UK Gilts Great Britain 0,04 ‐1,61 ‐0,93 ‐3,69 ‐4,79 ‐3,91
UA Bonds Ukraine ‐0,31 6,27 ‐2,95 13,83 75,67 102,54
Commodities
Gold ‐1,69 ‐2,54 9,87 19,63 18,79 27,18
Oil (Brent) 0,05 ‐4,96 1,76 2,93 18,35 35,46
Currency
EUR/USD ‐1,38 ‐3,53 ‐3,00 2,52 5,91 1,17
USA Euro area Japan China Germany Britain Brazil Poland Czechia Russia Ukraine
S&P 500 DJ EuroStoxx 50 Nikkei‐225 CSI 300 DAX‐30 FTSE‐100 BOVESPA WIG Prague SE MICEX PFTS
Change from 52w high, % ‐0,20 ‐0,07 ‐3,61 ‐12,27 ‐0,07 ‐0,62 ‐3,39 ‐3,08 ‐6,89 ‐3,23 ‐13,36
Change from 52w low, % 67,67 67,96 47,81 83,96 66,74 54,98 88,73 94,66 83,44 154,41 187,93
Price‐earnings ratio, P/E 24,30 22,71 n/a 27,18 61,91 60,00 20,42 n/a 30,04 17,71 122,92
Price‐sales ratio, P/S 1,24 0,77 0,66 2,44 0,66 1,20 1,73 0,90 1,57 1,39 0,66
Price‐book ratio, P/BV 2,24 1,43 1,39 3,15 1,54 1,97 2,06 1,48 1,43 1,24 1,21
Divident yields 12M, % 2,13 3,85 1,57 1,41 3,49 3,49 3,12 2,22 5,29 1,53 0,79
WWW.ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly December 14 ‐ 18, 2009
Quotations
Bid Ask Close Средняя WOW,% MTD,% YTD,% P/E EV/EBITDA EV/S
UNAF Ukrnafta 165,0 195,0 170,0 176,7 2,54 5,75 57,74 209,0 10,8 1,0
UTLM Ukrtelecom 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 ‐5,09 2,95 62,43 38,5 7,7 1,5
Banks
BAVL Raiffeizen Bank Aval 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 ‐2,45 0,08 16,04 4,3 n/a 2,4
FORM Bank Forum 6,5 5,3 6,5 6,1 1,51 3,23 13,04 5,8 n/a 4,4
USCB Ukrsotsbank 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 ‐3,81 ‐2,05 63,53 16,2 n/a n/a
RODB Rodovid Bank 50,0 4000,0 170,0 1406,7 0,00 0,00 240,05 1,9 n/a n/a
Electricity generation
CEEN Centerenergo 11,5 9,7 9,8 10,3 3,26 ‐0,64 101,82 47,3 34,3 1,1
DNEN Dniproenergo 670,7 670,7 670,9 670,8 ‐3,02 ‐34,88 41,71 80,0 45,0 1,3
DOEN Donbasenergo 61,5 50,5 60,5 57,5 ‐8,21 ‐11,25 103,61 30,8 239,7 0,8
ZAEN Zakhidenergo 334,5 400,0 335,0 356,5 2,15 ‐3,63 ‐8,35 105,0 1445,1 1,1
Electricity distribution
DNON Dniprooblenergo 200,0 500,0 440,0 380,0 ‐4,20 0,00 167,61 33,0 n/a 0,2
HAON Kharkivoblenergo 4,5 1,9 3,3 3,2 ‐6,31 ‐10,65 91,85 n/a n/a 0,2
KIEN Kievenergo 12,0 11,5 12,7 12,1 ‐7,66 ‐7,66 45,12 14,1 n/a 0,4
KREN Krymenergo 4,1 2,2 3,5 3,3 ‐8,02 ‐3,47 87,50 12,1 n/a 0,4
Steel
AZST Azovstal 2,7 2,7 2,7 2,7 ‐0,93 5,00 214,84 22,8 6,6 1,5
ALMK Alchevsk Iron&Steel 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 ‐1,26 13,84 72,68 18,6 12,1 0,4
DMKD DMK Dzerzhynskogo 0,6 0,4 0,6 0,5 ‐18,04 ‐2,45 89,29 2,1 n/a 1,3
DMZP DMP Petrovskogo 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,4 ‐21,88 ‐23,31 35,87 n/a n/a 0,4
DNSS Dniprospetsstal 2450,0 1600,0 2100,0 2050,0 0,00 4,95 ‐19,08 57,2 14,0 1,0
ENMZ Enakievo Steel 171,5 171,0 170,9 171,1 ‐1,46 6,39 224,92 10,3 24,9 0,1
KSTL Mittal Steel Kriviy Righ 10,8 9,9 11,2 10,6 ‐6,87 5,64 13,75 32,0 15,6 1,9
MMKI Mariupol Illych Iron & Steel 2,5 2,1 2,5 2,4 8,85 ‐3,65 150,18 211,7 26,4 0,1
Tubes
DTRZ Dnipropetrovsk TW 180,0 110,0 110,0 133,3 15,94 0,00 63,27 n/a n/a n/a
HRTR Khartsyzsk TW 1,7 195,0 170,0 122,2 ‐29,06 ‐26,85 9,12 209,0 10,8 1,0
NITR Nizhnyodneprovsky Tubes 14,0 195,0 170,0 126,3 ‐26,67 ‐24,38 12,80 209,0 10,8 1,0
NVTR Novomoskovsk Tubes 2,5 195,0 170,0 122,5 ‐28,90 ‐26,68 9,38 209,0 10,8 1,0
Iron ore
CGOK Central Mining 7,0 2,2 3,2 4,1 0,00 0,00 83,85 n/a n/a 3,9
PGOK Poltava Mining 25,0 27,5 27,5 26,7 ‐4,48 ‐5,10 127,34 13,3 6,1 0,7
PGZK Pivdenny Mining 7,0 8,3 8,0 7,8 0,00 0,00 ‐1,27 6,0 n/a 3,6
SGOK Pivnichny Mining 3,6 3,9 3,7 3,7 ‐3,22 ‐3,22 72,56 n/a n/a 6,5
Coke
AVDK Avdeevka Coke 11,0 10,9 11,0 10,9 ‐1,06 ‐1,32 134,93 333,9 5,0 0,1
ALKZ Alchevsk Coke 0,8 0,2 0,5 0,5 13,95 ‐3,29 133,33 21,7 7,9 1,1
BKOK Bagliykoks 0,9 0,4 0,9 0,7 4,76 0,00 54,39 n/a n/a n/a
ZACO Zaporizhya Coke 2,0 0,5 0,4 1,0 ‐51,69 ‐58,70 0,35 3,6 0,1 0,0
YASK Yasinovka Coke 3,1 3,4 3,4 3,3 0,20 11,92 321,37 6,7 3,9 0,0
Engineering
AVTO Ukravto 178,0 100,0 192,0 156,7 ‐4,08 ‐11,82 146,23 n/a n/a 0,3
AZGM Azovzagalmash 25,0 10,0 15,0 16,7 ‐3,85 ‐3,85 158,40 23,8 43,0 0,4
DGRM Donetskgormash 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 ‐2,00 ‐2,00 ‐45,25 n/a n/a 0,9
HMBZ Svitlo Shahtarya 0,9 0,3 0,5 0,5 17,04 ‐5,95 54,90 n/a n/a 2,1
KVBZ Kriukov Car Building 18,0 17,5 17,8 17,8 ‐0,56 3,50 108,01 27,3 37,4 0,3
LTPL Luganskteplovoz 3,7 2,5 2,9 3,1 9,57 ‐4,98 107,24 414,3 34,6 0,4
LUAZ LUAZ 0,3 0,2 0,3 0,3 5,56 ‐10,59 72,73 2,3 35,9 0,8
MSICH Motor Sich 1700,0 1676,0 1680,0 1685,3 ‐4,98 5,43 355,50 11,0 3,8 n/a
MZVM Mariupol Heavy Engineering 33,0 23,0 26,5 27,5 7,84 ‐1,59 102,75 108,7 17,3 0,3
SMASH Sumy Frunze Machinery 56,0 61,0 57,0 58,0 0,00 24,91 285,81 12,0 7,6 0,9
SNEM Nasosenergomash 2,0 2,3 3,9 2,7 ‐14,21 ‐14,21 185,96 n/a n/a 1,2
SVGZ Stakhanovsk Car Building 2,9 2,7 2,8 2,8 0,96 5,01 97,18 81,3 23,3 0,3
Others
DNSH Dniproshina 38,0 8,0 17,0 21,0 0,00 10,53 ‐8,72 n/a 12,6 0,9
KFTP Kriukovka Cellulose & Paper 46,0 30,0 35,0 37,0 0,00 ‐4,31 192,11 8,2 2,4 0,4
MTBD Mostobud 390,0 330,0 370,0 363,3 ‐6,44 ‐6,84 52,45 190,7 n/a 0,3
NORD Nord 100,0 20,0 90,0 70,0 0,00 0,00 ‐39,66 n/a n/a 0,6
SHCHZ Mine Krasnoarmeyskaya 4,4 4,6 4,6 4,5 ‐4,95 ‐1,09 121,63 20,3 5,2 7,2
SHKD Mine Komsomolets Donbasa 4,2 7,5 6,3 6,0 5,88 6,38 55,98 46,4 11,6 6,0
STIR Stirol 48,0 52,3 52,6 51,0 3,31 14,88 63,01 32,1 19,1 0,1
ZABR Zaporizhya Abrasives 1,0 1,4 1,1 1,1 ‐11,83 ‐1,72 ‐15,93 1,4 n/a 1,2
ZALK Zaporizhya Alluminum 0,3 0,9 0,3 0,5 0,00 0,00 30,67 n/a n/a 1,1
ZFER Zaporizhya Ferroalloys 0,2 1,8 0,9 0,9 0,00 0,00 6,06 22,5 n/a 2,3
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