Open Briefing | 1

The weekly briefing | 27 October 2014

Political and security risk updates


These briefings are produced by Bradburys Global Risk Partners in collaboration
with Open Briefing.
Africa: gypt declares three!"onth state of e"ergency in resti#e $inai Peninsula%
Aericas: &un"an attacks 'anadian parlia"ent after shooting dead soldier at
(ational )ar *e"orial in Ottawa%
Asia and Pacific: 'hinese 'o""unist Party e+pels si+ officials and announces
i"pro#e"ents to legal syste" as 4th plenary session closes%
!urope: Pro!uropean parties look to ha#e won ,krainian parlia"entary election%
"iddle !ast: ,ncertainty re"ains following latest negotiations between -ran and
P./10,1/1%
Polar regions: 2ussia de#eloping underwater co"bat robots for use in 3rctic%
3frica
!gypt declares three#onth state of eergency in resti$e %inai Peninsula
gyptian President 3bdel 4attah al!$isi has announced a three!"onth state of
e"ergency in the $inai Peninsula following two attacks that killed 11 soldiers on 24
October% The al!5aeda!inspired "ilitant organisation 3nsar Beit al!*a6dis7 linked to
the *usli" Brotherhood7 has been bla"ed for the attacks7 in which a car bo"b
attack targeted a "ilitary checkpoint and gun"en later attacked another "ilitary
checkpoint% 8owe#er7 no group has yet clai"ed responsibility for what is so"e of
the worst anti!state #iolence in gypt since al!$isi ca"e to power following the
o#erthrow of -sla"ist President *oha"ed *orsi in 9uly 2011%
3l!$isi announced a night!ti"e curfew and his intention to upgrade the gyptian
"ilitary:s presence throughout the peninsula in a bid to clear the country of ar"ed
groups and terrorist organisations% The go#ern"ent has e+pressed concern that the
continued unrest in $inai "ay pose an e+istential threat to the state of gypt7 a goal
al!$isi asserts foreign forces are acti#ely conspiring to achie#e% -t re"ains unclear7
howe#er7 which foreign groups the president belie#es are supporting the state!
targeted attacks% 3nsar Beit al!*a6dis ha#e pre#iously supported -sla"ic $tate in
$yria and -ra67 though the group has no official ties or known lines of co""unication
with the terrorist group%
Open Briefing | &
The curfew is to take place between the hours of 17;00 and 07;007 local ti"e7 though it is not i""ediately
clear how this will be enforced% 3l!$isi:s go#ern"ent and the gyptian ar"y will continue to target and
detain ar"ed rebels and their sy"pathisers within $inai in the co"ing weeks and "onths% *oreo#er7 as
the state of e"ergency in#ol#es the closing of gypt:s 2afah crossing with Palestine:s &a<a $trip7 it is
unclear if or how this "ay i"pact gypt:s dialogue with 8a"as%
Other de$elopents
A lasting ceasefire between the 'igerian go$ernent and (slaist rebel group Boko )ara is
unlikely in light of new attacks and kidnappings. The ceasefire that had been agreed on 17 October is
being repeatedly under"ined% $uspected Boko 8ara" "ilitants ha#e allegedly abducted an additional =0
wo"en fro" a "ountain #illage near the border with 'a"eroon% Boko 8ara" is also considered
responsible for the bo"bing of a bus ter"inal in 3<are7 Bauchi state7 on 21 October7 which killed at least
fi#e people and in>ured 12 others% -n addition7 it appears that go#ern"ent forces ha#e failed to uphold the
ceasefire agree"ent7 as reports indicate that there ha#e been clashes between troops fro" the 7th
?i#ision of the (igerian 3r"y and Boko 8ara" "ilitants in the town of ?a"boa in Borno state%
The total nuber of cases of !bola has surpassed 1*+*** according to the ,orld )ealth Organisation
-,)O.. *ali has reported its first case of the #irus after it was learned that a two!year!old girl that had
been tra#elling by bus fro" &uinea was infected% )8O considers the case a se#ere e"ergency7 as the girl
was sy"pto"atic during her tra#el7 and *ali has 6uarantined all persons tra#elling on the bus% *auritania
has closed its border with *ali until further notice%
The /' %ecurity 0ouncil has e1tended the African /nion "ission in %oalia -A"(%O". until 2*
'o$eber &*13. By adopting resolution 21@2 A2014B the $ecurity 'ouncil also a"ended a nu"ber of
i"posed sanctions% ,nder the new pro#isions7 #essels in $o"ali waters can be controlled by any state in
order to enforce the e+port ban of charcoal and ar"s% 4urther"ore7 the ar"s e"bargo has been partially
lifted in order to supply forces loyal to the Transnational 4ederal &o#ern"ent% Cocally7 the fight against al!
$habaab continues%
On the radar
/% Abassador to the /nited 'ations+ %aantha Power+ will $isit 4iberia+ %ierra 4eone and
Guinea this week in an effort to i"pro#e the international response to bola%
'ationwide strike by the 0oalition against the 0ost of 4i$ing -0050. is planned in Burkina
6aso on 2D October%
Acti$ists to protest in Algiers+ Algeria+ on 1 (o#e"ber%
6urther protests likely in 'orth 7i$u pro$ince+ 8eocratic Republic of the 0ongo+ against the
,( Organisation $tabilisation *ission in the ?e"ocratic 2epublic of the 'ongo A*O(,$'OB%
Public sector workers plan to strike throughout "orocco on &9 October to de"and an increase
in wages and denounce socioecono"ic policies%

Open Briefing | 2
3"ericas
Gunan attacks 0anadian parliaent after shooting dead soldier at 'ational ,ar "eorial in
Ottawa
$hortly before 10;00 local ti"e on 22 October7 an unar"ed 'anadian 4orces reser#ist guarding the
(ational )ar *e"orial in the 'anadian capital7 Ottawa7 was shot and killed by a "asked gun"an with a
hunting rifle% *ichael Eehaf!Bibeau shot 'orporal (athan 'irillo in the back at his post by the To"b of the
,nknown $oldier before returning to his car and dri#ing towards Parlia"ent 8ill% Eehaf!Bibeau then
entered the 'entre Block parlia"ent building and e+changed gunfire with security guards% 8e was shot
dead by the 8ouse of 'o""ons $ergeant!at!3r"s7 Fe#in Gickers7 in the 8all of 8onour7 as Pri"e *inister
$tephen 8arper and the leader of the opposition7 Tho"as *ulcair7 held caucus "eetings in roo"s on
either side of the hall% The pri"e "inister was reportedly hidden in a cupboard7 while *Ps barricaded the
doors and sharpened flagpoles to use as spears% 8arper was e#acuated by his security detail shortly after
the incident had ended%
The attack on the war "e"orial and parlia"ent ca"e >ust two days after )arrant Officer Patrice Gincent
was killed in an unrelated hit and run attack by *artin 'outure!2ouleau in $t!9ean!sur!2ichelieu7 south of
*ontreal% 2ouleau was shot and killed by police after his car flipped during the ensuing chase% Eehaf!
Bibeau and 2ouleau were both recent con#erts to -sla"% 2ouleau was known to federal authorities7 who
were concerned that he had been radicalised% Eehaf!Bibeau had a cri"inal record for drug and theft
offenses% There is no e#idence at present that either "an was linked to -sla"ic $tate A-$B7 though both are
thought to ha#e wanted to tra#el to -ra6 or $yria to fight with the e+tre"ist -sla"ist organisation% -n
$epte"ber7 the 'anadian go#ern"ent appro#ed pro#iding assistance to the -ra6i go#ern"ent in the fight
against -$7 which was later e+panded to pro#iding fighters and other aircraft for the ,$!led coalition
fighting the group%
3lthough 'anada was a significant player in the war in 3fghanistan7 it did not participate in the in#asion of
-ra67 and was until recently considered a relati#ely low!#alue target by -sla"ist "ilitants% That "ay ha#e
changed with 'anadaHs participation in the attacks on -sla"ic $tate in -ra6% 'anada will now undoubtedly
go through a period of debate on the balance right between freedo" and security in relation to possible
new anti!terror laws% -n the week prior to the attacks in $t!9ean!sur!2ichelieu and Ottawa7 'anadaHs public
safety "inister had re#ealed that the go#ern"ent was preparing to boost the powers of the 'anadian
$ecurity -ntelligence $er#ice% On the day after the attack on parlia"ent7 the pri"e "inister said that the
law "ust be strengthened in the areas of sur#eillance7 detention and arrest% *any will argue that the
police and intelligence ser#ices will need greater powers if they are to pre#ent future terrorist attacksI
while others will point out that e+isting laws are enough if enforced properly% ither way7 it is likely that
'anadian parlia"entarians will shortly be #oting on "uch!strengthened sur#eillance and detention
powers%
Other de$elopents
)igh ranking officials fro the Re$olutionary Ared 6orces of 0olobia -6AR0. et in )a$ana+ 0uba+
on &: October to speed up negotiations seeking to end the longest running conflict in 4atin Aerica.
'olo"bian President 9uan *anuel $antos launched the peace talks in 3ugust 2012% (ewly elected for a
second ter" in *ay 20147 $antos has pledged to sol#e the countryHs ongoing ci#il war with 432' during his
new "andate% The presence of high ranking 432' officials on the island is likely to now speed up the
negotiation process as both parties struggle to reach an agree"ent on the "atter of legal and financial
co"pensation for the #icti"s of the conflict%
Open Briefing | :
The party of /ruguayan President ;os< "u=ica+ the Broad 6ront+ faces a challenging presidential
election% +it polls and partial results indicate that *u>icaHs successor7 TabarJ GK<6ue<7 who go#erned the
country fro" 200. to 20107 has won the "ost #otes in the election on 2= October7 though has fallen short
of the outright "a>ority needed to a#oid a run!off% GK<6ue< is likely to now face a second round run!off
against his closest co"petitor7 Cuis Cacalle Pou of the conser#ati#e (ational Party% The electorate of the
other opposition force7 the 'olorado Party7 will be the key to winning the second round on 10 (o#e"ber%
Pou hopes to broker an alliance with the 'olorado Party7 as it has already successfully done for the
gubernatorial elections ne+t *ay% The Broad 4ront is also e+pected to lose control of congress7 which
would gi#e greater influence to the two "ain conser#ati#e parties as politics beco"es "ore consensual%
(n a tele$ision inter$iew on &1 October+ the !cuadorian inister of the interior+ ;os< %errano+ has
denied allegations of torture and police abuse detailed by a )uan Rights ,atch report published
the pre$ious day. The report highlighted police brutality against protesters in the capital7 5uito7 on 17
and 1@ $epte"ber% The protestors bla"ed the go#ern"ent for increased transportation costs7 rela+ed
policies concerning e+tracti#e industries7 and the lack of access to education% The report indicated that
270 indi#iduals were detained with do<ens "ore sub>ect to beatings and other physical abuse% 3lthough
three police"en ha#e been in#estigated for alleged attacks7 $errano denied the accusations outlined in
the report% The go#ern"ent of President 2afael 'orrea has constantly co"e under criticis" fro" 8u"an
2ights )atch since 'orrea first took office in 2007%
On the radar
6urther student protests are e1pected against 0hilean President "ichelle Bachelet>s
education refor.
%e$ere drought in )onduras puts thousands at risk of hunger7 and also i"pacts &uate"ala and
l $al#ador%
3sia and Pacific
0hinese 0ounist Party e1pels si1 officials and announces ipro$eents to legal syste as :th
plenary session closes
The 'hinese 'o""unist Party A''PB has e+pelled si+ officials7 including so"e of the partyHs "ore senior
"e"bers7 such as Lang 9inshan7 Ci ?ongsheng7 )ang Longchun7 and Ci 'huncheng% Their e+pulsion was
ratified by the ''P at their 4th plenary session last week7 though it had been discussed prior to the
"eeting% 3lthough the plenary session was held behind closed doors7 state officials indicated that the
"a>or the"e of the "eeting was the rule of law in 'hina% $pecifically7 the delegation agreed that the
'hinese constitution should be at the nucleus of the legal syste"7 that the go#ern"ent should establish a
"echanis" to report public officials who interfere in >udicial proceedings7 and that the $upre"e PeopleHs
'ourt should establish inter!regional courts ai"ed at increasing >udicial independence% -n addition7 the
plenu" decided to increase the nu"ber of lawyers and legal professionals in the go#ern"ent in order to
i"pro#e law "aking and i"ple"entation throughout the country% 3lso7 the plenu" agreed that the
i"ple"entation of these changes should be used as an indicator of the perfor"ance of local officials%

Open Briefing | 3
Cooking "ore closely at those e+pelled fro" the party7 Lang 9inshan was for"erly the deputy co""ander
of the 'hengdu "ilitary region7 and Ci ?ongsheng7 )ang Longchun and Ci 'huncheng were politically
associated with the now!retired Ehou Longkang% Ehou is the for"er head of 'hinaHs security apparatus
and law enforce"ent syste"s% Ehou is also one of the highest!ranking officials to be the sub>ect of a state!
led corruption in#estigation% The seniority of those sacked is not particularly surprising7 gi#en the recent
crackdown on political graft in the 'hinese 'o""unist Party% 3lso consistent with President Mi 9inpingHs
efforts to reduce graft within the party are the changes to the legal syste" announced after the close of
the session%
Prior to this plenary session7 so"e obser#ers had suggested that the ca"paign to prosecute corruption at
high le#els within the party and go#ern"ent were a ploy by the president to further consolidate his
influence within the partyHs top decision!"aking apparatus% (e#ertheless7 the recent state"ents bode
well for the future de#elop"ent of the 'hinese legal syste"% -t is largely obser#ed that the legal syste" in
'hina is characterised by Nrule by lawH rather than Nrule of lawH% $uch a distinction i"plies that go#ern"ent
officials are typically abo#e the law% These changes7 if i"ple"ented throughout the country7 would ha#e a
significant i"pact on the publicHs perception of the 'hinese legal syste"% (e#ertheless7 "any 'hinese
citi<ens in areas distant fro" Bei>ing and other "a>or urban areas7 ha#e e+pressed a lack of confidence
that such changes will per"eate to "ore re"ote regions of the country%
Other de$elopents
On &1 October+ the /nited %tates ilitary deli$ered an ?#Band radar syste to a /% ilitary
counications station in 7yoto+ ;apan. -n recent "onths7 9apan has e+pressed increasing concerns
o#er (orth Forean "issile tests% Two of (orth ForeaHs "ediu"!range "issiles ha#e the ability to strike
9apan% -n addition to concerns o#er (orth Forean aggression7 the 9apanese ha#e also e+pressed concern
regarding 'hinaHs increasing asserti#eness in defending its clai"s in the ast 'hina $ea% -n addition to the
ad#anced "issile defence radar syste"7 the ,$ "ilitary has also stated that it will send two na#y
destroyers7 capable of "issile defence7 to 9apanese waters% The stated purpose of these deploy"ents is to
protect against (orth Forean pro#ocations% (e#ertheless7 8ua 'hunying7 a spokesperson fro" the
'hinese foreign "inistry7 e+pressed concern o#er the bolstering of anti!"issile syste"s and stated that
Nseeking unilateral securityH in northeast 3sia is not beneficial to stability in the region%
The (ndian go$ernent has appro$ed ore than @12 billion in defence odernisation pro=ects% On 2.
October7 the -ndian ?efence 3c6uisition 'ouncil appro#ed a nu"ber of defence ac6uisitions pro>ects that
had been pending% These appro#als follow a s"aller round of appro#als in 9une 2014 that were worth
roughly O1%. billion% 'urrently7 the -ndian ar"ed forces i"port roughly 70P of its defence e6uip"ent%
arlier this year7 the ,nited $tates surpassed 2ussia as the largest ar"s pro#ider to -ndia% (e#ertheless7
the appro#als on 2. October included tenders to indigenously construct7 at the #ery least7 -ndian
sub"arines% Pri"e *inister (arendra *odi has in the past e"phasised the need for the country to focus
on do"estic research7 design and "anufacturing% 3dditionally7 the pre#ious 'ongress Party go#ern"ent
recei#ed criticis" for its delaying of se#eral procure"ent appro#als that had left the "ilitary short of
sufficient e6uip"ent% These procure"ents are a part of an aggressi#e push to "odernise the countryHs
"ilitary7 as it has recently engaged in deadly border clashes with Pakistan and e+perienced ele#ated
tensions on its border with 'hina%
Open Briefing | A
On Thursday &2 October+ the /nited %tates and %outh 7orea agreed to indefinitely delay the transfer
of wartie control o$er the %outh 7orean ilitary. The ,nited $tates agreed to $outh ForeaHs re6uest
at a >oint "eeting in the Pentagon% The purpose of the ,$ "ilitary control has been to allow the $outh
Forean ar"y to de#elop the co""and and operational ability to better counter the (orth Forean ar"y7
either by deterrence or direct "ilitary engage"ent% The ,nited $tates "aintained operational control of
the countryHs ar"ed forces between 1D.0 and 1DD47 when peaceti"e control was transferred back to
$outh Forea% The ,nited $tates had pre#iously agreed in 2007 to transfer warti"e control in 2012%
8owe#er7 in 20107 the (orth Forean "ilitary allegedly torpedoed a $outh Forean na#al #essel7 which
heightened the risk of ar"ed conflict on the peninsula% 3t this point7 the two sides agreed to further delay
the transfer until 201.% -nstead of setting a new date of transfer7 ,$ and $outh Forean officials ha#e
agreed to refocus on achie#ing operational and technological goals to counter the (orth Forean threat% -t
is currently pro>ected that the transfer will occur in roughly 10 yearsH ti"e%
On the radar
6orer ;apanese Prie "inister Basuo 6ukuda is e1pected to eet 0hinese President ?(
;inping on 2D October%
The 0hinese PeopleCs 4iberation Ary is e1pected to increase ties with the (ranian Ary+
following a high!le#el "eeting last week%
(ndiaCs Prie "inister 'arendra "odi is scheduled to eet with officials in "yanar and
Australia fro" 10 to 1@ (o#e"ber to discuss econo"ic and security issues%
5ietnaCs Prie "inister 'guyen Tan 8ung will eet with (ndian officials this week to discuss
deepening econo"ic cooperation%
0hinese %tate 0ouncillor BA'G ;iechi is e1pected to eet with Pha Binh "inh+ the
5ietnaese 6oreign "inister this week%
urope
Pro#!uropean parties look to ha$e won /krainian parliaentary election
,krainians #oted in parlia"entary elections on 2= October Q the second set of elections to take place since
the start of the political crisis in ,kraine in (o#e"ber 2011% The elections were e+pected to deter"ine the
degree of popular support for both Fie#Hs rapproche"ent with the uropean ,nion and the pro!2ussian
separatis" that has swept eastern ,kraine% On 2. October7 ,krainian President Petro Poroshenko
e"phasised the necessity for the election of a "a>ority of pro!uropean deputies in the Gerkho#na 2ada
A,kraineHs supre"e councilB in order to ensure that ,kraine break with its $o#iet past and pass a radical
refor" agenda% arly e+it polls indicate that pro!uropean centrist parties ha#e swept the election% Pro!
2ussian separatist leaders ha#e refused to hold elections in the eastern regions% On 21 October7 the pri"e
"inister of the self!proclai"ed ?onetsk PeopleHs 2epublic7 3le+ander Eakharchenko7 called off the
ceasefire that had been in place since 1D $epte"ber7 and announced plans to take control of the cities of
$la#yansk7 Fra"atorsk and *ariupol7 clai"ing that a peaceful transfer of power was i"possible%

Open Briefing | D
The fighting in eastern ,kraine7 the econo"y7 and the energy crisis are the key issues on concern for
#oters% Poroshenko faces a tough election7 as he has co"e under hea#y criticis" for his go#ern"entHs
handling of the conflict with rebels in eastern ,kraine and the worsening econo"ic conditions% Those who
protested on the *aidan (e<ale<hnosti and participated in the o#erthrowing of for"er president Giktor
Lanuko#ich ha#e accused Poroshenko of failing to i"ple"ent political and social change and for being too
soft on the separatist "o#e"ents in eastern ,kraine% Poroshenko and his go#ern"ent hoped that a last!
"inute gas deal with 2ussia at a "eeting in Brussels would sway #otersI howe#er7 2ussia and ,kraine
failed to broker an accord on gas supplies% $ince 9une7 &a<pro" has de"anded that ,kraine pays for its
gas in ad#anceI howe#er7 Fie# does not ha#e the "eans to do so% On 24 October7 2ussian President
Gladi"ir Putin called for the uropean ,nion and the ,nited $tates to pro#ide ,kraine with funds to pay
for the gas and announced that 2ussia hoped a gas deal would be reached at a "eeting with energy
"inisters in Brussels this week%
-t is likely that the parties backing Poroshenko will win a "a>ority in the election7 and thus ,kraine will
begin to i"ple"ent a nu"ber of refor"s that would begin to align the country with uropean ,nion
standards% 8owe#er7 a crucial task for the new parlia"ent will be to sol#e the crisis in eastern ,kraine%
)ith few #oting stations open in eastern ,kraine7 the Fie# go#ern"ent will fail to achie#e legiti"acy in the
eastern regions% 4urther"ore7 on 7 (o#e"ber separatists are planning to hold elections7 which pro!
2ussian figures and the 2ussian go#ern"ent will likely use to de"onstrate the legiti"acy of self!
proclai"ed separatist states% -t is likely that a pro!, parlia"ent will be unstable and "ay struggle to pass
necessary refor"s7 as there is still a strong under"ining influence fro" oligarchs and Lanuko#ich
supporters behind the scenes% -t is therefore possible that the parlia"ent will fail within the ne+t year%
$hould the parlia"ent collapse or the new go#ern"ent fail to sol#e the crisis in eastern ,kraine7 it is likely
that another round of protests would be e+perienced in ,kraine%
Other de$elopents
The %wedish defence inistry has announced the terination of a week#long na$al search operation
around (ngaro Bay+ near the capital+ %tockhol+ and the Baltic %ea. The operation in#ol#ed
"inesweepers7 helicopters and na#al #essels% -ngela (ilsson7 the spokes"an for the "inistry7 added that
ground troops would re"ain on alert% $wedish forces were searching for a supposed 2ussian sub"arine
that had encountered difficultiesI howe#er7 the operation failed to find any such sub"ersible% On 21
October7 the 2ussian defence "inistry denied the reports of a 2ussian sub"arine in foreign waters7 or that
a 2ussian oil tanker in the Baltic $ea was assisting a #essel in distress% 8owe#er7 on 21 October7 (3TO
reported that (3TO >ets had intercepted a 2ussian -lyushin!20 spy plane flying o#er the Baltic $ea% 3
2ussian defence "inistry spokes"an defended the e+ercise7 clai"ing the aircraft had flown o#er neutral
waters7 and had adhered to international regulations on the use of airspace%
On &2 October+ the 7oso$an foreign inister paid the first official $isit to %erbia since 7oso$o
seceded fro %erbia in &**E. n#er 8o+ha> attended a regional "eeting of foreign and finance "inisters
in Belgrade7 where the "inisters of Foso#o7 $erbia and 3lbania and uropean 'o""ission representati#es
discussed econo"ic "anage"ent and ties between the countries% ?uring the "eeting7 8o+ha> also asked
$erbia to recognise the independence of Foso#o through a peace treaty% Foso#o is currently recognised by
100 states% The $erbian go#ern"ent did not i""ediately respond to the Foso#o foreign "inisterHs
re6uest%
Open Briefing | E
On the radar
Budget officials fro the !/ eber states are to eet this week in 5enice+ (taly+ to discuss
the additional pay"ents i"posed on so"e uropean countries last week%
The !uropean 0oission will publish its $erdict on 6ranFois )ollandeCs budget for 6rance
for &*13.
;ean#0laude ;uncker will officially take o$er fro "anuel Barroso as the head of the
!uropean 0oission this week.
*iddle ast
/ncertainty reains following latest negotiations between (ran and P3G1H!/2G2
3"biguity re"ains following the latest negotiations between -ran and the ,( $ecurity 'ouncil per"anent
"e"bers and &er"any AP./10,1/1B in Gienna7 3ustria7 on 22!21 October% $tate"ents released fro"
both Tehran and )ashington on 24 October indicated any failure to reach consensus by the 24 (o#e"ber
deadline would be the result of unwilling oppositional parties% (onetheless7 -ran:s deputy foreign "inister7
3bbas 3raghchi7 announced on 2. October that -ran would not dis"antle any nuclear facilities7 despite the
continued threat of sanctions%
3raghchiHs latest co""ents are indicati#e that "a>or difficulties re"ain in finding acceptable ter"s for
-ran:s nuclear capacity% (egotiations ha#e already been e+tended by four "onths fro" 20 9uly% The ,nited
$tates: position re"ains clear that "ini"ising the nu"ber of -ran:s nuclear centrifuges7 capable of
enriching weapons!grade uraniu"7 will be the only acceptable concession% This stance is i"plicitly affir"ed
by the willingness of the ,nited $tates to continue i"posing sanctions throughout the diplo"atic process%
The parties appear to be caught in further deadlock o#er acceptable gains and losses% The talks ha#e been
criticised for o#er!politicising the negotiations% The role of the pro!-srael lobby in the ,nited $tates7 and
their influence on blocking the lifting of sanctions Q a key de"and of -ran Q is likely to e"erge as an
i"portant issue in the co"ing weeks% *oreo#er7 critical negotiations are likely to occur between ,(
$ecurity 'ouncil per"anent "e"bers 'hina and 2ussia o#er sub!regional non!proliferation%
Other de$elopents
5iolence continues to spread throughout Been as the country slips closer toward ci$il war. ,pwards
of @0 8outhi fighters were killed in the western district of 2ada:a on 2. October% 8outhi rebels ha#e
continued to push south in an atte"pt to o#erthrow and capture ele"ents of al!5aeda in the 3rabian
Peninsula A353PB and tribal strongholds% 353P announced on 24 October that they had entered a "ilitary
coalition with a nu"ber of tribal fighters against the $hi:ite ad#ance% Both the ,nited $tates and ,nited
(ations are likely to be drawn further into the country:s crisis7 with the ,nited $tates threatening
sanctions and drone strikes against the ri#al groups%

Open Briefing | 9
British troops ha$e ended their cobat operations in Afghanistan and handed control of 0ap
Bastion to Afghan forces. The 11!year operation ca"e to an end on 2= October in a cere"ony in#ol#ing
,$7 British and 3fghan ar"ed forces in 8el"and pro#ince% British forces originally built 'a"p Bastion in
200= in order to aid 3fghanistan:s reconstruction process7 but were soon drawn into further conflict with
the Taliban% )hile so"e successes ha#e undoubtedly been "ade within 3fghanistan7 it re"ains unclear
how the national ar"y will cope without the backing of western forces% 4ollowing the country:s recent
presidential deadlock7 the country:s econo"y has struggled and7 as such7 foreign aid and in#est"ent will
re"ain integral to do"estic security%
On &: October+ the consulates of the /nited %tates+ 0anada+ Belgiu+ Gerany and 6rance in
(stanbul+ Turkey+ recei$ed suspicious packages containing unidentified yellow powder. Turkish
authorities despatched che"ical7 biological7 radiological and nuclear A'B2(B specialists to e+a"ine the
packages% $i+teen people who had direct contact with the yellow powder were sent to hospital following
precautionary procedures% 3uthorities ha#e not released any infor"ation on the source of the packages or
any known "oti#es for the incident% 8owe#er7 all fi#e of the afore"entioned countries are participating in
the coalition fighting -sla"ic $tate "ilitants% 2esults fro" tests on the powder are due on 27 October%
On the radar
)aas announced that (srael#Palestine peace talks are to resue in 'airo7 gypt7 on 27
October%
(raIi 7urds are e1pected to send troops to the %yrian border town of 7obani.
6urther protests are highly likely in the east of ;erusale and the Old 0ity following recent
#iolent clashes between protesters and police7 which erupted after a con#icted terrorist dro#e his
#ehicle into a crowd of people at a rail stop on 21 October%
0hina to host the )eart of Asia#(stanbul Process on 2*#21 October+ which is ai"ed at
supporting regional bilateral relations and confidence building "easures with 3fghanistan%
Polar regions
Russia de$eloping underwater cobat robots for use in Arctic
The deputy general director of the 2ussian 4oundation for 3d#anced 2esearch Pro>ects7 Gitaly ?a#ydo#7
has detailed plans for a new breed of 2ussian underwater technology that is intended to strengthen
2ussia:s (orthern "ilitary capacity% ?a#ydo# clai"s that the new underwater co"bat robots will be able
to protect 2ussian infrastructure in the 3rctic7 including its oil rigs and e"erging shipping routes%
4urther"ore7 it is planned that the de#ices will be capable of detecting7 tracking and destroying potential
ene"ies7 and will be deployable fro" both the seabed and 2ussian sub"ersibles%
The announce"ent co"es a"id increased insecurity between states in the region o#er natural resources7
an especially pre#alent issue gi#en that the 3rctic is esti"ated to contain 22P of the world:s supply of oil
and natural gas% ?a#ydo# has confir"ed that the robots are part of 2ussia:s plans to ensure the stability
and security of 2ussia:s 3rctic territory7 gi#en the nu"ber of ri#al countries contesting the region:s
abundant "ineral resources%

Open Briefing | 1*
3nnounce"ents such this risk increasing tensions and deepening the rift between 2ussia and )estern
3rctic states% Together with 2ussian President Gladi"ir PutinHs #ow to further "ilitarise the 3rctic and
"o#es already "ade to bolster the (orthern fleet7 this announce"ent adds to the risk of further
"ilitarisation of the region by other 3rctic states%
Other de$elopents
The /' (nternational "aritie Organisation -("O. has copleted its Polar 0ode en$ironental
rules. The ,(:s "ariti"e organisation has created a set of international regulations that ai" to protect
the en#iron"ent in the Polar regions fro" industrial har"s% 'o"ing into force at the start of 20177 the
regulations confront issues relating to 3rctic shipping between the 3tlantic and Pacific Oceans7 e+cessi#e
ship noise7 #essel efficiency and pollutants% )hile industry leaders ha#e clai"ed that the regulations are
too rigid and prohibiti#e7 en#iron"ental (&Os ha#e argued the opposite% Paul 'rowley7 head of the )orld
)ildlife 4und:s 'anadian 3rctic progra""e7 has pointed out that the code is "issing crucial co"ponents7
such as a ban on hea#y fuel oils in the 3ntarctic%
The contro$ersial %ea %hepherd 0onser$ation %ociety -%ea %hepherd. has stated that the 'GO will
return to the %outhern Ocean to confront illegal toothfish operators in the region. $ea $hepherds has
a long history in the 3ntarctic confronting 9apanese whaling ships and are accused of using e+tre"e and
so"eti"es dangerous "anoeu#res7 including ship ra""ing7 butyric acid deploy"ent and propeller
>a""ing% -n 3ugust and $epte"ber 20127 -nterpol issued a 2ed (otice7 or international wanted persons
alert7 for the organisationHs leader7 Paul )atson7 at the re6uest of the 'osta 2ican 9apanese authorities
respecti#ely%
Russian state oil copany Rosneft has reIuested o$er A* new licenses fro the Russian go$ernent
in response to ,estern sanctions that ha$e put the copany in =eopardy. One "a>or setback to
2osneft as a result of the sanctions7 was the swift e+it of ++on*obil fro" a >oint co"prehensi#e
cooperation agree"ent in the Fara $ea% 2osneft is seeking to gain new licenses that will rein#igorate the
co"pany:s prospects and open up larger offshore operations%

Published with intelligence support from
Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www.bradburys.co.uk






Analysts: 'hris 3bbott7 ?erek 'rystal7 2oger *arshall7 TancrRde 4euillade7 'laudia )agner7 $ophie Taylor7
9an *airhSfer7 2obert Tasker and *atthew 'ouillard%
Open Briefing | 11
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