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Use of Health Index and Reliability Data for Transformer Condition Assessment
and Fleet Ranking

P. PICHER*, J.-F. BOUDREAU, A. MANGA, C. RAJOTTE, C. TARDIF, G. BIZIER,
N. DI GAETANO, D. GARON, B. GIRARD, J.-F. HAMEL, S. PROULX
Hydro-Qubec
Canada

SUMMARY
Many transformer fleets around the globe are aging and will continue to do so as long as the
replacement processes remain limited by both financial and human resources. Hence, there is a need
for the replacement process to start with the units most critical to the power system and those whose
condition is a cause for concern. The basic tool usually selected to establish the priorities for
transformer replacement is the well-known risk matrix. On the impact axis of this matrix, each
transformer is positioned according to its importance in relation to all other types of assets in the
substation. The method proposed to position transformers on the probability axis of the risk matrix is
more complex and is the object of this paper.
Historical data on the disposal of transformers and shunt reactors are first processed with a non-
parametric estimator. The resulting estimates may be used to choose a parametric distribution to serve
alone or within an accelerated failure time (AFT) model or other relevant regression model. Results of
the AFT model fit to our data show that the type of apparatus has a statistically significant effect on
survival, with time estimated to be passing 12% faster for shunt reactors.
The resulting AFT failure rate curves could be used to position the apparatus on the probability axis of
the risk matrix. However, in order to obtain a better investment strategy for transformer replacement,
the condition is taken into account using the physical health index (HI) concept. This decision is
supported by the fact that generally many old transformers are known to be in a better condition than
younger ones. Various factors such as in-service stress, design characteristics, maintenance history,
etc. affect the HI estimate of a specific transformer. The notion of apparent age derived from the real
age, the HI value and the linear approximation of their relation is introduced. This apparent age and
failure rate curve estimated using the AFT model allows the estimation of a specific transformers
failure rate which is then used to position the transformer on the probability axis of the risk matrix,
and then to prioritize replacements.
Hydro-Qubecs transformer HI indicators and rank have been implemented in an intranet application
software so that all interested parties, from technical personnel to managers, can easily access the
ranking of the transformer fleet and all the details of each indicator. Recommendations for
maintenance actions on a specific transformer and the effect on the HI value are also shown. This new
source of information is now being used to optimize investment decisions including options to extend
the useful life of the asset or to consider corrective and proactive maintenance measures. In the future,
data obtained from on-line monitoring of the most critical units will be used to increase the accuracy
of the health indicators and will orient short-term corrective maintenance actions.
KEYWORDS
Transformer, Health index, Reliability data.
*picher.patrick@ireq.ca


1. INTRODUCTION
Hydro-Qubec is facing a situation similar to that faced by many other utilities in the world. A
significant proportion of its electrical infrastructure was installed in the 1970s. Figure 1 presents the
age profile of Hydro-Qubecs power transformer and shunt reactor fleet which contains more than
2000 pieces of equipment. This figure shows that more than 50% of the transformers were installed
before 1980 and are therefore over 30 years old. Moreover, the average age of the whole transformer
fleet
1
is now over 30. As the expected technical end of life is in the range of 35 years for shunt
reactors and 40 to 50 years for transformers, depending on the category, Hydro-Qubec is working on
continuously improving its reinvestment and maintenance strategies.

Figure 1: Hydro-Qubec transformer fleet age profile.
Limited financial and human resources mean that the transformer fleet will continue to age even as
transformers are replaced. In the industry, the preferential tool used to establish the replacement
priorities is the well-known risk matrix, in which the axes represent the impact or consequence of a
major failure and the probability of failure. Using this kind of matrix, replacement priority is given to
transformers with the highest risk. On the impact axis, each transformer is positioned according to its
importance in relation to other assets. Because of their relative importance in substations, transformers
are usually positioned in the highest region of this axis. Moreover, the specific transformer application
in the network (generator step-up (GSU), transmission transformer, transformer feeding the
distribution network) and the impact of failure (environment, safety) are also considered for its
positioning on the impact axis.
The method used to position transformers on the probability axis of the risk matrix is more complex
and several authors have proposed using the concept of a health index (HI) sometimes in combination
with some reliability data [1]-[5]. As presented in this paper, Hydro-Qubec has developed an
innovative technique combining reliability data and the health index for fleet ranking. This paper
describes the approach for modeling the mean transformer fleet aging, the indicators used to derive HI,
and the apparent-age calculation method used for the ultimate determination of the probability of
failure.
2. MODELING OF MEAN AGING
2.1 Background
The chosen estimation method, very seldom seen in published material on power systems [6], [7], uses
statistical methods from the survival/reliability literature [8]. These methods include non-parametric
and parametric estimates of the failure rate and survival functions and are preferred to the internal and
external surveys usually employed in the electric power industry to estimate failure rate [9]-[15]. The

1
In this paper, when referring to the transformer fleet, it includes the shunt reactors.
1

latter estimation procedure assumes a constant failure rate within the subgroups studied, which obliges
the analyst to form several age-related subgroups in order to determine whether a bathtub-shaped or
increasing function better describes aging. However, given the small subgroup sizes, this procedure
may fail to estimate the failure rate sufficiently accurately. On the other hand, statistical methods
consider the entire history of current and scrapped units to estimate the failure rate as a function of
time.
Statistical methods are used in this paper to estimate the mean aging model that describes the usual
aging process. In order to benefit from all available data, it is essential to first document the time in
service of all units, those in current use as well as discarded ones. Operation starts at commissioning
for all apparatus, a date easily obtained from most inventory databases. The time in operation of an
apparatus still in service at the time of a study is right-censored, which means the apparatus has
survived to that point and will be discarded in the future. This information is very important and
should not be disregarded. The time in service of discarded equipment following a major failure ends
at the time it is disposed of.
For apparatus withdrawn proactively before a major failure, follow-up might be estimated to end a
random or fixed number of years after it is disposed of. The same treatment might be used for
overhauled apparatus. A sensitivity analysis may be used to check how the treatment of these units
influences the results.
Non-parametric estimators do not require assumptions about the shape of the studied variables
distribution, preventing biases other than those intrinsic to the available data. A survival estimate
obtained using one of these estimators is thus usually employed to help judge the adequacy of more
sophisticated estimates. In particular, these estimators can be used to select a parametric distribution to
use in the accelerated failure time (AFT) models adopted for this paper. The Kaplan-Meier non-
parametric product-limit estimator of the survival function [16], [17], one of the most popular non-
parametric estimators, is selected for this paper. More details on the estimation methods may be found
in [18].
If some predictors or indicators are expected to have an effect on survival, this information can be
used to estimate survival more precisely. For example, we will use the type of apparatus predictor in
this paper to separate transformers and shunt reactors. A whole range of models is available in the
survival/reliability literature to study survival. In this paper, the AFT model is used for the study of
transformer and shunt reactor survival [17]. The interesting feature of this model is that the effect of
predictors is to accelerate or decelerate time, which is quantified by the estimated coefficients.
All data manipulations and analyses presented in this paper were carried out using R 2.13.1 software
[19]. The survfit and survreg functions from survival package 2.36-9 were used for the reliability
analyses.
2.2 Available data
A total of 369 shunt reactors and 2592 GSU and network power transformers rated 49 kV and above,
including all apparatus in use at the time of the analysis and all the scrapped units in the past, are
included in this study and are used to create the graphs shown in this paper.
The causes for discarding units were sometimes difficult to document, especially for those scrapped a
long time ago. As shown in Table 1, among the 307 units for which the cause is known, 118 were
scrapped after a major failure, while the remaining units were retired preventively because of their bad
condition.
2

Table 1: Causes of transformer and shunt reactor withdrawals.
Equipment Major failure
Preventive
withdrawals
Unknown
cause
Total
Transformers 93 187 445 725
Shunt reactors 25 2 29 56
Total 118 189 474 781

The time in service of units discarded preventively or for an unknown cause was assumed to end five
years later. This time delay is used to take into account any service time that the units might have
provided before the occurrence of a major failure. Its value was chosen by transformer experts
involved in the choice of replacement strategies used in the last three decades, and aware of the
strategies used before that time. In order to appreciate the effect of this value, the results of a
sensitivity analysis are presented below.
Finally, two of the shunt reactors and 57 of the transformers were overhauled. It was assumed that
these units would have worked approximately five more years before a major failure; the time in
service of these units thus ends five years after overhaul. The effect of this value on estimated curves
is also considered below.
2.3 Survival and failure rate estimation
Survival was first estimated non-parametrically using the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator.
Figure 2 shows estimates obtained for transformers and shunt reactors. In this figure, time in service
ends five years after overhaul and five or ten years after withdrawal if the cause was unknown or if
withdrawal was preventive. Ending the time in service at the two proposed moments does not have an
important effect on the results. In fact the differences are well within the 95% confidence intervals
(not shown). Also, ending the time in service of overhauled units ten years after overhaul has a barely
visible effect on estimated curves (results not shown). The results in the rest of the paper were
obtained using five years in both situations. We can also see in Figure 2 that survival decreases more
rapidly for shunt reactors than for transformers, and that shunt reactor survival must be extrapolated
after 45 years (the first shunt reactors having been installed 45 years ago).

Figure 2: Survival estimated using the Kaplan-Meier (KM) product-limit estimate showing the effect of
using an extra 5 or 10 years of time in service for units discarded preventively or for an unknown cause.
3

In order to show that a constant failure rate is far from reality in the available data, Figure 3
superimposes the survival estimated non-parametrically (KM) and the exponential fit. The exponential
distribution is the only distribution that considers the failure rate constant.
We see clearly in Figure 3 that survival estimated assuming a constant failure rate is not consistent
with survival estimated non-parametrically, i.e. not assuming any model. We therefore pursued our
analyses using other distributions.

Figure 3: Survival estimated using KM estimate and the exponential distribution.
Given the available history for transformers, we checked if the AFT model described above can be
used to extrapolate a survival estimate for shunt reactors. In order to use an AFT model, we first had to
choose a parametric distribution to model the time in service among classical distributions (Weibull,
log normal, log logistic, and extreme value type I). An adequacy graph for the Weibull distribution
showed that this was the most appropriate in our example (graphs not shown). An AFT model was
therefore estimated using the Weibull distribution and the type of equipment (shunt reactors or
transformers). We see in Figure 4(a) that the AFT-Weibull model is consistent with Kaplan-Meier
non-parametric estimates and allows extrapolation for shunt reactors. The effect of this predictor is
statistically significant (p-value =0.03) and is estimated to be 1.12. In our situation, time is thus
estimated to pass 12% faster for shunt reactors compared to transformers. Failure rate estimates for
both groups of equipment are available in Figure 4(b).
4


(a)

(b)*
Figure 4: (a) Survival and (b) failure rate estimated using the AFT-Weibull model.
*Failure rate in this graph includes preventive scrapping and unknown cause of withdrawal.
3. HEALTH INDEX ESTIMATION
An analysis of the most relevant data was made to select key indicators for creating the health index,
keeping in mind that the information should be available for the vast majority of apparatus in order to
compare units on the same basis [20]. Selected indicators are listed and described succinctly in Table
2.
Table 2: Indicators used to estimate the health index.
Indicator Description
Failure rate of similar
transformers
Failure data is used to identify less reliable transformer families. Transformer
families are created for equipment with the same specification, manufacturer,
similar serial numbers and years of manufacture, etc.
Solid insulation
Paper aging markers measured in transformer oil such as methanol, furans and
CO/CO2 content (depending on data availability).
Dissolved Gas Analysis
DGA index is calculated based on the absolute values of the different gases
measured, the evolution of these gases and the ranking coefficients for each gas.
On-Load Tap Changer Information on the reliability of the OLTC design and the maintenance record.
Bushing Information on bushing type reliability and maintenance record.
Moisture content Moisture content in oil is measured to estimate the water content in the paper.
Oil tests
Oil quality is characterized based on acidity, interfacial tension, dielectric
strength and power factor.
Accessories reliability
This indicator is derived from the number of repairs carried out to fix problems
on accessories.
Oil leaks This indicator is derived from the number of repairs carried out to fix oil leaks.

The indicators in Table 2 are combined using weights to obtain an estimate of HI. The weights are
chosen by transformer experts to reflect the relative importance of each parameter on the global health
evaluation.
A level of confidence is associated with the HI values depending on the availability, type and date of
the last data for each indicator (more recent data give a higher confidence than older information). A
5

low level of confidence will help to justify inspections to collect the required data and improve the
condition assessment.
4. APPARENT-AGE CALCULATION
Once the age and HI estimates are available for units of the studied fleet, a graph of the HI estimate as
a function of age is produced and a linear regression passing through (0,0) is estimated. Units above
the regression line are those in a poorer condition than average for units of their age; conversely for
units below the regression line. The apparent age for a given unit is the age at which the regression
line passes through its HI estimate. In order to avoid extreme situations where the age and apparent
age would be too far off, the HI estimates are first shrunk vertically between the limits of 10 years
below and 15 years above the regression line.
Health indices for Hydro-Qubecs transformer and shunt reactor fleet are shown in Figure 5(a), while
an example of the apparent-age calculation for two units is shown in Figure 5(b). We see in Figure
5(a) that the average health condition of transformers degrades with age, and that a considerable
variability is observed for transformers of the same age. Figure 5(b) shows that a unit of apparatus of
20 years of age with an HI of 20, which indicates a worse condition than usual for this age, has an
apparent age of 31.5 years. Conversely, the apparent age of a 65-year-old apparatus with an HI of 8 is
60.2 years.

(a)

(b)
Figure 5: (a) Health index estimate as a function of age, linear relation, and upper and lower limits for
Hydro-Qubecs transformer and shunt reactor fleet. (b) Apparent-age calculation for two units using
their HI estimate and age.
5. POSITIONING ON THE PROBABILITY AXIS
As explained above, the current condition is used to calculate the apparent age which then is used to
position units on the mean aging model (Figure 4(b)), producing a failure rate estimate for each unit.
Estimating the failure rate using the apparent age, instead of age, allows differences between unit
conditions to be taken into account in asset management in general and replacement prioritization in
particular.
The probability axis of the risk matrix is then separated into nine values (Figure 6). The probability
values are related to the equipments apparent age. The lower boundary of probability 4 is set at an
apparent age corresponding to a failure rate equal to (life expectancy)
-1
. Each interval (of one value) in
the probability axis corresponds to a constant failure rate increment.
6

After the boundaries are determined using this technique, the apparent age can be easily used to locate
each transformer on the probability axis of the risk matrix, and replacement priority can be given to
transformers with the highest risk.
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Figure 6: Application of asset information in the risk matrix.
6. SOFTWARE IMPLEMENTATION
Hydro-Qubecs transformer and shunt reactor condition assessment and fleet ranking are available on
the intranet. All interested parties, from technical personnel to managers, can thus easily access the
ranking of the transformer fleet and all the details of each indicator through a user-friendly interface.
Recommendations for maintenance actions on a specific transformer and the effect on the HI value are
also shown. Another important benefit of the application is the dynamic updating of the HI indicators
and ranking when new data become available, which allows access to the most recent information. To
help establish maintenance and sustainability priorities, the transformer ranking is divided into three
zones (maintenance, study and sustainability). The apparent age is used to locate each
transformer/shunt reactor on its failure rate curve, thus determining its zone. For equipment in the
study zone, the preferred course of action may involve either maintenance or sustainability measures,
depending on the situation.
7. CONCLUSION
This paper presents an innovative method to prioritize electrical apparatus replacements taking into
account mean aging model estimated statistically and health index estimated using information
available in maintenance databases. It was designed with fleet management in view and is not intended
to identify detailed short-term corrective maintenance actions on specific units. This helps decision-
makers in their proactive end-of-life management of aging fleets of electrical apparatus.
Using historical reliability data and statistical survival/reliability analysis methods allows for a
coherent estimation of the failure rate, which is not assumed constant over time. Note that if the failure
rate were constant, the AFT model could still be used. The AFT model was used to estimate the effect
of the type of equipment (shunt reactors vs. power transformers) and to extrapolate the estimate for
shunt reactors, whose history is not long enough to cover the older ages reached by this apparatus. The
same model could be used in future to estimate the effect of other indicators, which would possibly
eliminate the need to choose values to weight the HI indicators.
The methods presented and applied to transformers and shunt reactors in this paper can be employed
to study any population of apparatus for which data to estimate the time in service and health index is
available.
7

8

In future work, on-line monitoring data will be used to increase the accuracy of the indicators that
served to estimate the health index of the most critical units and will contribute to orienting short-term
corrective maintenance actions.
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