Russian military fights:

propaganda or precursor to war?

THURSDAY 3 !"T!#$R %&'
(hy has Russia radically increased military fights on )ato*s +orders , and
how worried should we +e?
(hene-er Russia fies its aircra.t a +it too close to #ritish +orders .or
com.ort/ the RA0 sends out its Typhoon 1ets to spoo2 them/ watch them and
cordially guide them away .rom U3 airspace4
This wee2 Russia has +een radically ramping up its military patrols near
)ato*s airspace/ .orcing #ritain/ 5ermany/ )orway 6ortugal and Tur2ey
to scram+le its 1ets in response4
0our groups o. Russian aircra.t were intercepted in one %',hour period this
wee2/ descri+ed +y )ato itsel. as an unusual and 7large,scale7 +urst o.
military acti-ity , including the Russian #ear +om+er 8pictured94
They .orced as many players within )ato as possi+le to deploy
intercepts:ustin #ron2/ a-iation analyst .or Rusi
)ato said .ar more Russian aircra.t mo-ements ha-e +een detected in the
& months o. this year compared to all o. %&3: a+out & compared to
around ' last year4
The main worry is the moti-ation +ehind all this , whether the growing use
o. military .orce should +e ta2en at its .earsome .ace -alue/ or whether
;oscow is trying to say something to a capti-e audience4
Tensions ha-e continued to rise o-er Russia*s anne<ation o. "rimea and its
desire to .oment unrest in U2raine and among its western allies/ although
;oscow*s am+itions ha-e +een .rustrated o. late4
Ukraine's president, Petro Poroshenko, has been a particular irritant to Russia, so it
may be no coincidence that Russian military aircraft violated North American airspace
controlled by the US and Canada when r Poroshenko visited those two countries in
September!
6ower games
:ustin #ron2/ a research analyst .or the Royal United Ser-ices =nstitute thin2
tan2/ told "hannel ' )ews that Russia*s recent fights were 7care.ully co,
ordinated attempt to display power7/ +ut their purpose was 7rather more a
psychological than a military intelligence one74
The amount o. aircra.t in each intercept , si< to eight in each o.
these , that*s why it*s signi>cant)ato spo2esman
7=t*s interesting the way these multiple -iolations ha-e +een ?uite care.ully
choreographed to show it can encircle )ato/7 he added4
7They .orced as many players within )ato as possi+le to deploy intercepts74
That said/ such fights 7do pro+e the response time7 o. )ato*s aircra.t and
how long they can stic2 with their Russian counterparts/ he said4
6aul #ea-er/ an a-iation consultant/ told "hannel ' )ews that Russia may
.eel the need to demonstrate pro-e its strength on the international stage
.or a domestic audience , and predicted the .re?uency o. Russian fights
was li2ely to resume its &@As heights/ when aircra.t were intercepted on an
almost daily +asis4
#ut he re1ected the notion that the errant fight o. a Bat-ian cargo plane on
(ednesday was related to the increase in Russian military acti-ity4
The Antono- cargo plane was escorted through #ritish airspace to its
landing at Stansted airport a.ter its fight 7caused concern7 to air traCc
controllers/ said the ;inistry o. De.ence4
7= thin2 that*s 1ust one o. those things/ = don*t thin2 it*s connected/7 ;r
#ea-er said4 7=t*s 1ust someone*s old cargo plane47
;a1or Ro+ 6hillips/ a )ato spo2esman/ told "hannel ' )ews that escorting
Russian aircra.t through airspace in such situations was 7a standard
procedure7/ +ut added: 7The amount o. aircra.t in each intercept , si< to
eight in each o. these , that*s why it*s signi>cant47
)ew normal?
Despite )ato*s swi.t response/ all o. the Russian fights too2 place o-er
international waters meaning that none +reached national +orders , unli2e
an incident last wee2 when a Russian spy plane +riefy crossed $stonia*s
+order4
#ut
international tensions can spiral out o. control ?uic2ly/ so does any o. this
really show what the opening +lows o. military confict would loo2 li2e?
Russia is wary o. pro-o2ing con-entional war.are with the )ato alliance
+ecause 7the west has the ad-antage7/ ;r #ron2 said4 ;oscow would +e
more li2ely to replicate the 2ind o. disrupti-e/ 7salami slicing7 acti-ity seen
in U2raine and "rimea/ he added4
=n addition he said 7Russia will always a-oid tripping the Article D tripwire7 ,
the pro-ision that would re?uire all )ato mem+ers to come to the aid o.
another i. it was attac2ed4
#ut he warned o. the main danger: that the west 7underestimates the
danger o. this threat long term7/ gi-en Russia*s huge military in-estment
and )ato*s poor in-estment in comparison during its 7age o. austerity74
0or which reason/ we may need to get used to putting up with +iEarre .orms
o. sel. e<pression .or a while yet4
Posted by "havam