Modeling Measles

Objectives: (1) Introduce students to basic modeling of data; (2) Allow students to apply principles from
Calculus I in an applied setting; (3) To allow student to practice technical writing, with emphasis on certain
basic stylistic elements of mathematical/technical writing.
General Description: In support of some sociology research into what causes people to choose to be doctors,

you are asked to develop a mathematical model of reported measles cases as a function of time.
Specifically, you are asked to model data from New York City, 1928-1971. (In the associated file NYC
Measles data student.xlsx, you will find data which provides monthly totals for reported cases.)
Additionally, you are asked to develop a model for the measles morbidity rate (number of measles cases
per 100,000 people) for this same New York City data. (Population data is not provided. You will have to
find that data somewhere online.) Write a technical report that describes this model.
To exercise your use of proper writing style, you should include the following required stylistic elements:

All equations must be composed using an equation editor (Word has one built in).
At least one equation must be set on its own line and should be numbered.
You must use proper style and refer to one of your numbered equations.
You must have at least one figure and it must be properly captioned.
You must properly refer to your figure (by number) somewhere in your text.
You must have at least two sections in your paper.
You must have at least one reference. Use any standard style for your list of references.
You must have at least one citation.

Use the Writing Guide (from Annalisa Crannell) and the example paper by Mikko Stenlund to help you to
use good style.
Additional Procedural Instructions:

There is no maximum length. Single spacing is fine.

You MAY work with a partner, in which case, the two of you should submit a single paper. YOU
MAY RECEIVE NO HELP FROM ANY LIVE PERSON OTHER THAN YOUR PARTNER, AN
INSTRUCTOR, OR THE TAs for any of the mathematical work.
You may use the WRITING CENTER to help in producing your paper.
No sources of live help are to be used except as listed above.
Make sure you include an appropriate ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS section in your paper if you take
advantage of any resources.
You may use any other reference material (your book, the web, etc.) but you must include an
appropriate citation and/or reference in your paper.
Your paper must be typewritten.

Please keep in mind: this is a writing assignment, not a homework problem. The grading will primarily be
based on your essay and writing, not simply whether the math is correct.
Some hints and guidance on technical aspects of the project:

1. Morbidity calculations are usually based on the number of cases per year. As such, you will
probably want to use yearly values. Additionally, you will probably find that the trendline
operation in Excel will give you better results if you are plotting year on the horizontal and # of
reported cases on the vertical. You can sum across rows in the table of sheet one to get annual
totals.
The first thing you will want to model (with the help of curve fitting and trendline functions in
Excel) is TOTAL MEASLES CASES PER YEAR IN NYC AS A FUNCTION OF TIME.
2. On sheet two is a single list of monthly totals, if you want to take a look at that graph. Note the
seasonal fluctuations. Any ideas as to why?
3. Hint: if you show the trend line equation on the graph, you will want to format the numbers as
scientific using at least 4 significant digits.
4. There is no particular reason that you should expect the data to be linear. So fit a line, if you
think that works, or something else if you think it is better. YOU are the one building the model, so
you will have to make some choices.
5. The graph specified in item 1 is used to develop a model for number of cases per year. Because a
maximum on these trend lines occurs only when the derivative is 0, use the derivative to find
the maximum of the model and compare with measured data.
6. Note since you are using the data, you must have a citation and reference for that source, which is
listed in the Excel file.
7. To model morbidity, you will need a two-step process:
o First, model NYC population values for the time period of interest. Use the web to find
population data. Cite that source. Plot the data and fit (using a trend line) to get a model
that covers the time period of interest.
o Take the model for # of cases per year (which you found in step 1) and divide by your
model for population to find a function that describes morbidity.
8. Use the derivative of your morbidity equation to identify when morbidity reaches a maximum.
9. Include plots and graphs that aid your explanation.
10. Include a CONCLUSIONS component to your paper. CONCLUSIONS is an important section. It
does not mean I am done, here is a summary. It means now that I have completed this scientific
inquiry, here are the scientific conclusions that I can draw.