NATL Financial Model

Copyright
Nghe An Tate & Lyle Sugar Company (Vietnam)

Harvard Business School Case 9-202-054
Case Software 2-202-734
Copyright 2002 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College
This course software was prepared by Professor Benjamin C. Esty, and Frank J. Lysy, Senior Advisor
at the International Finance Corporation and Resesarch Associate Carrie Ferman soley as the basis
for class discussion. Cases are not intended to serve as endorsements, sources of primary data, or
illustrations of effective or ineffective management.
Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project

Key Assumptions and Results
(Real US$, $000)
Assumptions
Results from Model
Real Discount rate

Inflation
Nominal Discount rate
10.0%
3.0%
13.3%
Revenue
Cane Crushed (quantity)
Use company projections?
If false, reach full capacity in (year)
TRUE
2003
Average Sugar Price per Ton

Use World Bank projections?
If false, sugar price growth rate
Yield of Sugar per Ton of Cane
Expenses
Price NATL Pays Farmers for Cane
If false, cane price growth rate
Capital Expenditures
If false, percent change in total cost
1999-2005
TRUE
5.0%
After 2005
2.0%
10.3%
1999-2005
TRUE
0.0%
Private Return
Domestic Sugar Revenue
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Profit Taxes
EBIAT
plus: Depreciation
less: Capital Expenditures
less: Increases in Net Working Capital
plus: Terminal Value
Nominal Free Cash Flow
Real Free Cash Flow
NPV
$275,724
($136,390)
$139,335
($23,907)
$115,427
($14,924)
$100,503
$23,907
($85,897)
($4,326)
$23,519
$57,707
$57,707
FRR
NPV
$57,707
$9,678
$470
$39,587
$2,746
$22,692
$29,011
$5,428
($34,439)
($71,527)
$61,352
ERR
21.2%
17.7%
After 2005
0.0%
TRUE
0.0%
Tax Rates
Value Added Tax (VAT) Rate
Import Tariff Rate on Sugar
1999-2005
10.0%
30.0%
After 2005
10.0%
30.0%
Profit Tax Rate
2005-2010
25.0%
After 2010
25.0%
Social Return (Real Terms)

Private returns
Vietnamese labor employed
Value of training to labor
Cane Growers
Truck haulers
Profit taxes paid
VAT paid by firm
VAT paid by domestic suppliers
Reduced VAT on imports
Reduced import tariffs
Total Net Returns
18.6%
Percent
of Total
94.1%
15.8%
0.8%
64.5%
4.5%
37.0%
47.3%
8.8%
-116.6%
-56.1%
100.0%
Returns to Deal Participants

Returns to Farmers
Net return from alternative cash crops ($/ha)
Opportunity cost of labor ($/day)
Returns to Truckers
Value above opportunity cost (profit margin)
250489217.xls.ms_office
1
$1.00
31%
(To calculate the profit margin see "Trucking" spreadsheet)
11/8/2014,5:18 AM
Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project

Key Assumptions and Results
(Real US$, $000)
250489217.xls.ms_office
11/8/2014,5:18 AM
Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

All Assumptions
All fiscal years are October to September
Rates
US GDP deflator (% annual change)
US GDP deflator index (1990=100)
Exchange rate
LIBOR
Spread on IFC Loans
IFC A-loan
(LIBOR +)
IFC B-loan
(LIBOR +)
EFIC / other (LIBOR +)
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
3.00%
1.061
3.00%
1.030
3.00%
1.000
3.00%
0.971
3.00%
0.943
3.00%
0.915
3.00%
0.888
3.00%
0.863
3.00%
0.837
3.00%
0.813
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
5.5%
3.250%
2.875%
2.500%
Real Discount Rate

Nominal Discount Rate
10.0%
13.3%
Depreciation allowance
6%
Terminal Value Discount Rate- Rest of Society
1996
20%
Taxes
Tariffs
Value Added Tax (VAT) rate
1999-2005
30.0%
10.0%
After 2005
30.0%
10.0%
Value Added Tax (VAT) rate on Cane Cost
1999-2000
5.0%
2001-2005 After 2005

2.0%
2.0%
Profit Tax
2005-2010
25.0%
After 2010
25.0%
Revenue Assumptions
Assumed yield of sugar per ton of cane
Cane crushed (tons):
Min
Max
Company projections
Delay- Student Input
Price per ton Sugar:
World Bank Import Price Projections, excl VAT
Student Input Import Price, excl VAT
Implied Tariff
WB Domestic, excl VAT
Student Input Domestic, excl VAT
10.3%
64,000
900,000
836,000
209,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
64,000
64,000
400,000
273,000
750,000
482,000
850,000
691,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
0
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0%
0
0
300
300
30%
390
390
314
315
30%
409
410
331
331
30%
430
430
348
347
30%
453
452
366
365
30%
476
474
385
383
30%
501
498
405
402
30%
527
523
1,548
37
1,548
37
14,042
1,595
14,042
1,595
38,585
3,291
38,585
3,291
10,376
2,117
10,376
2,117
1,585
178
1,585
178
3,307
0
3,307
0
3,406
0
3,406
0
3,508
90
3,508
90
3,613
93
3,613
93
3,722
96
3,722
96
Costs Assumptions
Capital Costs
Company Projections
of which Local Works and Installation Labor
Student Input
Admin, Operating, & Selling Expenses

All Assumptions
Labor- Vietnamese
Labor- Expatriate
Training costs
Materials and Other Costs
Cost of Sales
Labor- Vietnamese
Labor- Expatriate
Materials and Other Costs (% of Cane Crushed)
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
466
586
17
4,643
565
600
44
1,900
680
450
57
1,400
785
400
59
2,000
890
350
60
2,200
917
361
62
2,266
944
371
64
2,334
0
0
0
0
0
0
503
464
489
450
475
436
545
400
580
350
597
361
615
371
0
0
0
0
0
0
200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
206,000
200,000
212,180
200,000
150.0
710.0
1,340.0
1,650.0 -- here forth % of revenue
YR 1
YR 2
0.2%
Aver price paid (incl. for haulage) in dong

IFC Projections
Student Input
Working Capital
Percent of Revenues (after 1998)
1996
10.0%
Returns to Others
Returns to Suppliers
Tons of Cane Per Hectares
Costs of growing cane/ha
NPV- US$
Net Return from alternative crop ($/ha)

1 Cash Crops (average)
2 Pineapple
3 Coffee
4 Rubber
5 Combo A - peanuts and maize
6 Combo B - peanuts and peanuts
7 Combo C - peanuts and rice
Returns to Truck Haulers
YR 3
YR 4
YR 5
YR 6
YR 7
YR 8
50
(540)
344
(600)
(1,365)
(897)
179
(56)
31%
480
287
287
287
480
287
287
287
(789)
(760)
(875)
(733)
(133)
27
(8)
(132)
430
(512)
(313)
(133)
27
(8)
(176)
663
(878)
(313)
(133)
27
(8)
(206)
(760)
455
(313)
(133)
27
(8)
191
430
455
(313)
(133)
27
(8)
268
663
455
(313)
(133)
27
(8)
(206)
(760)
455
(313)
(133)
27
(8)
191
430
455
(313)
(133)
27
(8)

All Assumptions
Rates
Exchange rate
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3.00%
0.789
3.00%
0.766
3.00%
0.744
3.00%
0.722
3.00%
0.701
3.00%
0.681
3.00%
0.661
3.00%
0.642
3.00%
0.623
3.00%
0.605
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
15,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
900,000
417
410
30%
542
533
426
418
30%
554
544
435
427
30%
566
555
444
435
30%
578
566
454
444
30%
590
577
459
453
30%
597
589
463
462
30%
602
600
468
471
30%
608
612
472
480
30%
613
625
476
490
30%
619
637
3,833
99
3,833
99
3,948
102
3,948
102
4,067
105
4,067
105
4,189
108
4,189
108
4,315
111
4,315
111
4,444
114
4,444
114
4,577
118
4,577
118
4,715
121
4,715
121
4,856
125
4,856
125
5,002
129
5,002
129
LIBOR
Spread on IFC Loans
IFC A-loan
(LIBOR +)
IFC B-loan
(LIBOR +)
Real Discount Rate
Taxes
Tariffs
Profit Tax
Revenue Assumptions
Min
Max
Company projections
Implied Tariff
Costs Assumptions
Capital Costs
Company Projections
Student Input

All Assumptions
Labor- Vietnamese
Labor- Expatriate
Training costs
Cost of Sales
Labor- Vietnamese
Labor- Expatriate
IFC Projections
Student Input
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
973
382
66
2,404
1,002
394
68
2,476
1,032
406
70
2,550
1,063
418
72
2,627
1,095
430
74
2,706
1,127
443
77
2,787
1,161
457
79
2,871
1,196
470
81
2,957
1,232
484
84
3,045
1,269
499
86
3,137
634
382
653
394
672
406
693
418
713
430
735
443
757
457
779
470
803
484
827
499
218,545
200,000
225,102
200,000
231,855
200,000
238,810
200,000
245,975
200,000
253,354
200,000
260,955
200,000
268,783
200,000
276,847
200,000
285,152
200,000
YR 10
YR 11
YR 12
YR 13
YR 14
YR 15
YR 16
YR 17
YR 18
Working Capital
Returns to Others
2 Pineapple
3 Coffee
4 Rubber
YR 9
480
287
287
287
480
287
287
287
480
287
456
663
455
250
(133)
27
(8)
(18)
(760)
455
250
(133)
27
(8)
(65)
430
(875)
250
(133)
27
(8)
134
663
(512)
250
(133)
27
(8)
(463)
(760)
(878)
250
(133)
27
(8)
378
430
455
250
(133)
27
(8)
456
663
455
250
(133)
27
(8)
(18)
(760)
455
250
(133)
27
(8)
378
430
455
250
(133)
27
(8)
456
663
455
250
(133)
27
(8)

All Assumptions
Rates
Exchange rate
LIBOR
Spread on IFC Loans
IFC A-loan
(LIBOR +)
IFC B-loan
(LIBOR +)
Real Discount Rate
Taxes
Tariffs
Profit Tax
Revenue Assumptions
Min
Max
Company projections
Implied Tariff
Costs Assumptions
Capital Costs
Company Projections
Student Input

All Assumptions
Labor- Vietnamese
Labor- Expatriate
Training costs
Cost of Sales
Labor- Vietnamese
Labor- Expatriate
IFC Projections
Student Input
Working Capital
Returns to Others
2 Pineapple
3 Coffee
4 Rubber

All Assumptions
Rates
Exchange rate
LIBOR
Spread on IFC Loans
IFC A-loan
(LIBOR +)
IFC B-loan
(LIBOR +)
Real Discount Rate
Taxes
Tariffs
Profit Tax
Revenue Assumptions
Min
Max
Company projections
Implied Tariff
Costs Assumptions
Capital Costs
Company Projections
Student Input

All Assumptions
Labor- Vietnamese
Labor- Expatriate
Training costs
Cost of Sales
Labor- Vietnamese
Labor- Expatriate
IFC Projections
Student Input
Working Capital
Returns to Others
2 Pineapple
3 Coffee
4 Rubber

Sum
NPV
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

Cane crushed (tons)
13,764,000
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
10.3%
64,000
10.3%
400,000
10.3%
750,000
10.3%
850,000
10.3%
900,000
10.3%
900,000
1,417,692
-
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,592
390
41,200
409
77,250
430
87,550
453
92,700
476
92,700
501
861,923
275,724
2,857
18,701
36,920
44,024
49,045
51,603
16,396
7,502
23,898
5,520
3,002
8,522
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
466
586
1,052
565
600
1,165
680
450
1,130
785
400
1,185
890
350
1,240
917
361
1,277
1,121
377
17
44
57
59
60
62
44,302
16,962
4,643
1,900
1,400
2,000
2,200
2,266
69,321
25,860
5,712
3,109
2,587
3,244
3,500
3,605
11,070
7,216
18,287
3,910
2,767
6,677
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
503
464
967
489
450
939
475
436
911
545
400
945
580
350
930
597
361
958
37,123
11,799
132
849
1,639
1,913
2,087
2,149
13,764,000
214,933
193,440
21,493
68,882
61,994
6,888
0
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
0
200,000
13.33
64,000
853
768
85
200,000
13.33
400,000
5,333
4,800
533
200,000
13.33
750,000
10,000
9,000
1,000
200,000
13.33
850,000
11,333
10,200
1,133
200,000
13.33
900,000
12,000
10,800
1,200
206,000
13.73
900,000
12,360
11,124
1,236
270,343
87,358
1,952
7,121
12,550
14,192
15,017
15,467
86,192
3,712
4,430
4,484
27,572
1,180
1,696
1,525
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
286
13
464
43
1,870
85
190
267
3,692
164
140
200
4,402
191
200
227
4,905
209
220
240
5,160
215
227
247
73,566
23,172
(234)
1,329
3,188
3,784
4,236
4,472
Total Expenses
413,229
136,390
7,429
11,559
18,325
21,220
22,753
23,544
EBITDA
Depreciation
448,694
72,512
139,335
23,907
0
0
0
0
0
0
(4,572)
0
7,142
3,307
18,595
3,472
22,805
3,642
26,292
3,818
28,059
3,999
EBIT
376,182
115,427
(4,572)
3,835
15,122
19,162
22,474
24,060
Sugar produced (tons)

Avg price per ton sugar (domestic), excl VAT
Total Domestic Sugar Revenue With VAT
Expenses
1.Labor
Vietnamese
Expatriate
Total Labor
2.Training costs
3.Materials and Other Costs
Total Admin, Operating, & Selling Expenses
Cost of Sales
1.Labor
Vietnamese
Expatriate
Total Labor
3.Cost of Cane
Ave price paid (incl. for haulage) in US$
Cane crushed (tons)
Total Cane Cost
90.0%
a. Paid to farmers
10.0%
b. Paid for haulage
Total Cost of Sales
Value Added Tax
% Total revenue
% Cost of Sale- Materials and Other Costs
% Admin- Materials and Other Costs
% Total Cane Cost
Total VAT

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
10.3%
900,000
10.3%
900,000
10.3%
900,000
10.3%
900,000
10.3%
900,000
10.3%
900,000
10.3%
900,000
10.3%
900,000
10.3%
900,000
10.3%
900,000
10.3%
900,000
92,700
527
92,700
542
92,700
554
92,700
566
92,700
578
92,700
590
92,700
597
92,700
602
92,700
608
92,700
613
92,700
619
54,294
55,853
57,043
58,258
59,499
60,765
61,496
62,049
62,607
63,171
63,739
944
371
1,316
973
382
1,355
1,002
394
1,396
1,032
406
1,437
1,063
418
1,481
1,095
430
1,525
1,127
443
1,571
1,161
457
1,618
1,196
470
1,666
1,232
484
1,716
1,269
499
1,768
64
66
68
70
72
74
77
79
81
84
86
2,334
2,404
2,476
2,550
2,627
2,706
2,787
2,871
2,957
3,045
3,137
3,714
3,825
3,940
4,058
4,180
4,305
4,434
4,567
4,704
4,845
4,991
615
371
987
634
382
1,016
653
394
1,047
672
406
1,078
693
418
1,110
713
430
1,144
735
443
1,178
757
457
1,213
779
470
1,250
803
484
1,287
827
499
1,326
2,214
2,280
2,349
2,419
2,492
2,566
2,643
2,723
2,804
2,888
2,975

Cane crushed (tons)
Avg price per ton sugar (domestic), excl VAT
Total Domestic Sugar Revenue With VAT
Expenses
1.Labor
Vietnamese
Expatriate
Total Labor
2.Training costs
Total Admin, Operating, & Selling Expenses
Cost of Sales
1.Labor
Vietnamese
Expatriate
Total Labor
3.Cost of Cane
Ave price paid (incl. for haulage) in US$
Cane crushed (tons)
Total Cane Cost
90.0%
a. Paid to farmers
10.0%
b. Paid for haulage
212,180
14.15
900,000
12,731
11,458
1,273
218,545
14.57
900,000
13,113
11,801
1,311
225,102
15.01
900,000
13,506
12,155
1,351
231,855
15.46
900,000
13,911
12,520
1,391
238,810
15.92
900,000
14,329
12,896
1,433
245,975
16.40
900,000
14,758
13,283
1,476
253,354
16.89
900,000
15,201
13,681
1,520
260,955
17.40
900,000
15,657
14,092
1,566
268,783
17.92
900,000
16,127
14,514
1,613
276,847
18.46
900,000
16,611
14,950
1,661
285,152
19.01
900,000
17,109
15,398
1,711
15,931
16,409
16,901
17,408
17,931
18,469
19,023
19,593
20,181
20,787
21,410
5,429
221
233
255
5,585
228
240
262
5,704
235
248
270
5,826
242
255
278
5,950
249
263
287
6,077
257
271
295
6,150
264
279
304
6,205
272
287
313
6,261
280
296
323
6,317
289
305
332
6,374
298
314
342
4,720
4,855
4,952
5,051
5,151
5,254
5,303
5,332
5,362
5,391
5,421
Total Expenses
24,365
25,089
25,793
26,517
27,262
28,028
28,759
29,493
30,248
31,024
31,822
EBITDA
Depreciation
29,929
4,185
30,764
4,376
31,250
4,574
31,741
4,777
32,237
4,986
32,737
5,202
32,736
5,424
32,556
5,653
32,360
5,889
32,147
6,132
31,918
3,075
EBIT
25,744
26,388
26,676
26,964
27,250
27,535
27,312
26,903
26,471
26,015
28,843
Total Cost of Sales

Value Added Tax
% Total revenue
% Cost of Sale- Materials and Other Costs
% Admin- Materials and Other Costs
% Total Cane Cost
Total VAT

Sum
NPV
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
0
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0
0.0%
0
0
0
0.0%
(4,572)
2,071
(6,643)
0.0%
3,835
4,730
(895)
0.0%
15,122
4,225
10,897
0.0%
19,162
4,113
15,050
0.0%
22,474
3,678
18,796
0.0%
24,060
2,936
21,124
0.0%
Profit Taxes
EBIT
Interest
Profit before Taxes
Profit tax rate on project
Total Profit Taxes
67,170
14,924
EBI A-T
Deprecation
Capital Costs
Net Working Capital
Stock of Working Capital
Increases in Net Working Capital
Terminal Value
Total Private Free Cash Flow
in Nominal terms
Returns to Others
Returns to Labor Employed
Total Vietnamese labor
50% Value above opportunity cost
Training Value (assume = cost)
Value above opportunity cost (total)
3,835
15,122
19,162
22,474
24,060
3,307
3,472
3,642
3,818
3,999
(4,572)
127,639
7,217.7
85,897
7,530.0
1,548
37
14,042
1,595
38,585
3,291
10,376
2,117
1,585
178
3,307
0
3,406
0
3,508
90
3,613
93
87,557
5,034
31,114
4,326
150
150
710
560
1,340
630
1,650
310
1,870
220
3,692
1,822
4,402
710
4,905
502
5,160
256
196,485
23,519
FRR/ERR
21.2%
Sum
NPV
57,707
(1,698)
(14,602)
(39,215)
(15,258)
5,337
13,466
18,688
22,282
24,189
1,595
797
0
797
3,291
1,646
0
1,646
3,086
1,543
17
1,560
1,232
616
44
660
1,155
578
57
635
1,330
665
59
724
1,560
780
60
841
1,607
804
62
866
0
0
614
(614)
(1,010)
768
1.280
3,593
(2,825)
(5,474)
4,800
8.000
5,653
(853)
(6,636)
9,000
15.000
5,260
3,740
(3,948)
10,200
17.000
5,601
4,599
(3,427)
10,800
18.000
6,459
4,341
(303)
11,124
18.000
6,513
4,611
2,285
NPV
27,492
10,148
37
19
0
19
193,440
275
98,926
94,514
4,220
61,994
94
37,537
24,457
(10,120)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
132,150
39,587
396
2,649
5,783
7,688
8,026
4,643
2,326

Total paid to truckers
11,604
2,746
0
0
0
0
0
0
85
27
533
168
1,000
315
1,133
356
1,200
377
1,236
389
Rest of Society - Profit Taxes paid by NATL
132,066
22,692
Total paid to cane growers
Land devoted to cane (hectares)
Total costs of growing cane
Total Return to cane farmers
Net Return from alternative crop
Rest of Society - Reduced tariffs received

Avg price per ton sugar (import parity), excl VAT
Implicit tariff
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
300
30.0%
314
30.0%
331
30.0%
348
30.0%
366
30.0%
385
30.0%

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
25,744
2,097
23,647
0.0%
26,388
1,258
25,130
25.0%
26,676
419
26,257
25.0%
26,964
0
26,964
25.0%
27,250
0
27,250
25.0%
27,535
0
27,535
25.0%
27,312
0
27,312
25.0%
26,903
0
26,903
25.0%
26,471
0
26,471
25.0%
26,015
0
26,015
25.0%
28,843
0
28,843
25.0%
6,282
6,564
6,741
6,813
6,884
6,828
6,726
6,618
6,504
7,211
25,744
20,106
20,112
20,223
20,438
20,651
20,484
20,177
19,853
19,512
21,632
Deprecation
4,185
4,376
4,574
4,777
4,986
5,202
5,424
5,653
5,889
6,132
3,075
Capital Costs
3,722
96
3,833
99
3,948
102
4,067
105
4,189
108
4,315
111
4,444
114
4,577
118
4,715
121
4,856
125
5,002
129
Net Working Capital

Stock of Working Capital
Increases in Net Working Capital
5,429
269
5,585
156
5,704
119
5,826
122
5,950
124
6,077
127
6,150
73
6,205
55
6,261
56
6,317
56
6,374
57
25,938
20,492
20,618
20,811
21,111
21,412
21,391
21,198
20,972
20,731
1,655
828
64
892
1,705
852
66
919
1,756
878
68
946
1,809
904
70
974
1,863
931
72
1,004
1,919
959
74
1,034
1,976
988
77
1,065
2,036
1,018
79
1,097
2,097
1,048
81
1,130
2,160
1,080
84
1,164
2,225
11,123
862
11,985
11,458
18.000
5,547
5,911
912
11,801
18.000
5,601
6,201
1,149
12,155
18.000
6,459
5,696
4,232
12,520
18.000
6,513
6,007
3,161
12,896
18.000
5,547
7,349
709
13,283
18.000
5,601
7,682
272
13,681
18.000
6,459
7,222
(1,837)
14,092
18.000
6,513
7,578
90
14,514
18.000
5,547
8,968
4,898
14,950
18.000
5,601
9,349
3,848
15,398
18.000
6,459
8,939
4,288
4,999
5,052
1,465
2,845
6,640
7,410
9,059
7,489
4,069
5,501
46,506
1,273
400
1,311
412
1,351
425
1,391
438
1,433
451
1,476
464
1,520
478
1,566
492
1,613
507
1,661
522
1,711
5,381
6,282
6,564
6,741
6,813
6,884
6,828
6,726
6,618
6,504
72,107
417
30.0%
426
30.0%
435
30.0%
444
30.0%
454
30.0%
459
30.0%
463
30.0%
468
30.0%
472
30.0%
476
30.0%
Profit Taxes
EBIT
Interest
Profit before Taxes
Profit tax rate on project
Total Profit Taxes
EBI A-T
Terminal Value
196,485
Total Private Free Cash Flow

in Nominal terms
216,133
Returns to Others
Returns to Labor Employed
Total Vietnamese labor
Training Value (assume = cost)
Total paid to cane growers
Land devoted to cane (hectares)
Total costs of growing cane
Total Return to cane farmers
Net Return from alternative crop
Total paid to truckers
Rest of Society - Profit Taxes paid by NATL
Rest of Society - Reduced tariffs received
Avg price per ton sugar (import parity), excl VAT
Implicit tariff
405
30.0%

Total
Rest of Society - VAT
Reduced VAT on imports received
VAT paid by firm
Sum
NPV
298,159
71,527
143,558
21,207
122,351
34,439
5,428
29,011
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,592
593
41,200
3,884
77,250
7,668
87,550
9,144
92,700
10,186
92,700
10,718
286
520
(234)
1,870
542
1,329
3,692
504
3,188
4,402
618
3,784
4,905
669
4,236
5,160
689
4,472
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Total
Rest of Society - VAT
Reduced VAT on imports received
VAT paid by firm
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
92,700
11,276
92,700
11,600
92,700
11,847
92,700
12,100
92,700
12,357
92,700
12,620
92,700
12,772
92,700
12,887
92,700
13,003
92,700
13,120
92,700
132,382
5,429
709
4,720
5,585
731
4,855
5,704
753
4,952
5,826
775
5,051
5,950
798
5,151
6,077
822
5,254
6,150
847
5,303
6,205
872
5,332
6,261
899
5,362
6,317
926
5,391
63,739
9,534
54,206

Sum
NPV
Nomianl Summary Economic Returns
FRR/ERR
NPV
1. Private Financiers
2. Vietnamese labor employed
3. Value of training to labor
4. Cane Growers
5. Truck Haulers
6. Profit taxes paid
7. VAT paid by firm
8. VAT paid by domestic suppliers
9. Reduced import tariffs
10. Reduced VAT on imports
Total Net Returns to Society
Real Summary Economic Returns

4. Cane Growers
5. Truck Haulers
7. VAT paid by firm
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
21.2%
57,707
9,678
470
39,587
2,746
22,692
29,011
5,428
(71,527)
(34,439)
(1,698)
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(14,602)
797
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(39,215)
1,646
0
396
0
0
0
0
0
0
(15,258)
1,543
17
2,649
27
0
(234)
520
(593)
(286)
5,337
616
44
5,783
168
0
1,329
542
(3,884)
(1,870)
13,466
578
57
7,688
315
0
3,188
504
(7,668)
(3,692)
18,688
665
59
8,026
356
0
3,784
618
(9,144)
(4,402)
22,282
780
60
4,643
377
0
4,236
669
(10,186)
(4,905)
24,189
804
62
2,326
389
0
4,472
689
(10,718)
(5,160)
22.2%
61,352
(1,680)
(13,804)
(37,173)
(11,616)
8,064
14,435
18,651
17,957
17,052
FRR/ERR
NPV
17.7%
57,707
9,678
470
39,587
2,746
22,692
29,011
5,428
(71,527)
(34,439)
(1,802)
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(15,040)
821
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(39,215)
1,646
0
396
0
0
0
0
0
0
(14,814)
1,498
16
2,572
26
0
(228)
505
(576)
(277)
5,031
581
41
5,451
158
0
1,252
510
(3,661)
(1,763)
12,323
528
52
7,035
288
0
2,918
461
(7,017)
(3,379)
16,604
591
52
7,131
317
0
3,362
549
(8,124)
(3,912)
19,221
673
52
4,005
326
0
3,654
577
(8,787)
(4,231)
20,258
673
52
1,948
326
0
3,745
577
(8,976)
(4,322)
18.6%
61,352
(1,782)
(14,218)
(37,173)
(11,278)
7,601
13,210
16,571
15,490
14,281
Economic Returns as a Share of Overall NPV

4. Cane Growers
5. Truck Haulers
7. VAT paid by firm
1996
94.1%
15.8%
0.8%
64.5%
4.5%
37.0%
47.3%
8.8%
-116.6%
-56.1%
100.0%

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
25,938
828
64
4,999
400
0
4,720
709
(11,276)
(5,429)
20,492
852
66
5,052
412
6,282
4,855
731
(11,600)
(5,585)
20,618
878
68
1,465
425
6,564
4,952
753
(11,847)
(5,704)
20,811
904
70
2,845
438
6,741
5,051
775
(12,100)
(5,826)
21,111
931
72
6,640
451
6,813
5,151
798
(12,357)
(5,950)
21,412
959
74
7,410
464
6,884
5,254
822
(12,620)
(6,077)
21,391
988
77
9,059
478
6,828
5,303
847
(12,772)
(6,150)
21,198
1,018
79
7,489
492
6,726
5,332
872
(12,887)
(6,205)
20,972
1,048
81
4,069
507
6,618
5,362
899
(13,003)
(6,261)
20,731
1,080
84
5,501
522
6,504
5,391
926
(13,120)
(6,317)
216,133
11,123
862
46,506
5,381
72,107
54,206
9,534
(132,382)
(63,739)
20,953
21,557
18,171
19,710
23,661
24,584
26,048
24,114
20,292
21,302
219,730
21,090
673
52
4,065
326
0
3,838
577
(9,169)
(4,415)
16,177
673
52
3,988
326
4,959
3,832
577
(9,157)
(4,409)
15,802
673
52
1,123
326
5,031
3,795
577
(9,080)
(4,372)
15,486
673
52
2,117
326
5,016
3,758
577
(9,003)
(4,335)
15,251
673
52
4,797
326
4,922
3,722
577
(8,927)
(4,298)
15,018
673
52
5,197
326
4,828
3,685
577
(8,852)
(4,262)
14,566
673
52
6,168
326
4,649
3,611
577
(8,697)
(4,188)
14,014
673
52
4,951
326
4,446
3,525
577
(8,520)
(4,102)
13,461
673
52
2,612
326
4,248
3,442
577
(8,346)
(4,019)
12,919
673
52
3,428
326
4,053
3,360
577
(8,176)
(3,937)
130,764
6,729
522
28,137
3,256
43,626
32,795
5,768
(80,093)
(38,563)
17,036
17,018
13,926
14,666
17,093
17,242
17,738
15,942
13,025
13,275
132,940
Nomianl Summary Economic Returns

4. Cane Growers
5. Truck Haulers
7. VAT paid by firm
Real Summary Economic Returns

4. Cane Growers
5. Truck Haulers
7. VAT paid by firm
Economic Returns as a Share of Overall NPV

4. Cane Growers
5. Truck Haulers
7. VAT paid by firm

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Interest paid
a. Stock of Debt
1) IFC A-loan
2) IFC B-loan
3) EFIC / other
b. Amortization payments
1) IFC A-loan
2) IFC B-loan
3) EFIC / other
c. Interest due
1) IFC A-loan
(LIBOR +)
2) IFC B-loan
(LIBOR +)
3) EFIC / other (LIBOR +)
Nominal Depreciation Schedule

Total Invest/Yr
Cum Invest
Depreciation: Straight line depreciation over 20 years
Year 1
66,136
Year 2
3,307
Year 3
3,406
Year 4
3,508
Year 5
3,613
Year 6
3,722
Year 7
3,833
Year 8
3,948
Year 9
4,067
Year 10
4,189
Year 11
4,315
Year 12
4,444
50,000
20,000
20,000
10,000
1996
1,548
1,548
1997
14,042
15,590
1998
38,585
54,175
2,071
1999
10,376
64,551
4,730
2000
50,000
20,000
20,000
10,000
4,225
1,750
1,675
800
2001
47,273
20,000
18,182
9,091
2,727
1,818
909
4,113
1,750
1,599
764
2002
39,596
17,778
14,545
7,273
7,677
2,222
3,636
1,818
3,678
1,653
1,370
655
2003
29,697
13,333
10,909
5,455
9,899
4,444
3,636
1,818
2,936
1,361
1,066
509
2004
1,585
66,136
3,307
69,443
3,406
72,849
3,508
76,357
3,613
79,970
3,307
3,307
165
3,307
165
170
3,307
165
170
175
3,307
165
170
175
181

Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Total Depreciation/Yr
Cum Depreciation
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
4,577
4,715
4,856
5,002
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,307
3,307
3,472
6,779
3,642
10,421
3,818
14,239
3,999
18,238

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Interest paid
a. Stock of Debt
1) IFC A-loan
2) IFC B-loan
3) EFIC / other
1) IFC A-loan
2) IFC B-loan
3) EFIC / other
c. Interest due
1) IFC A-loan
(LIBOR +)
2) IFC B-loan
(LIBOR +)

Total Invest/Yr
Cum Invest
19,798
8,889
7,273
3,636
9,899
4,444
3,636
1,818
2,097
972
761
364
2005
3,722
83,692

Year 1
3,307
Year 2
165
Year 3
170
Year 4
175
Year 5
181
Year 6
186
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
9,899
4,444
3,636
1,818
9,899
4,444
3,636
1,818
1,258
583
457
218
2006
0
0
0
0
9,899
4,444
3,636
1,818
419
194
152
73
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
3,833
87,526
3,948
91,474
4,067
95,541
4,189
99,730
4,315
104,045
4,444
108,489
4,577
113,066
4,715
117,781
4,856
122,637
3,307
165
170
175
181
186
192
3,307
165
170
175
181
186
192
197
3,307
165
170
175
181
186
192
197
203
3,307
165
170
175
181
186
192
197
203
209
3,307
165
170
175
181
186
192
197
203
209
216
3,307
165
170
175
181
186
192
197
203
209
216
222
3,307
165
170
175
181
186
192
197
203
209
216
222
3,307
165
170
175
181
186
192
197
203
209
216
222
3,307
165
170
175
181
186
192
197
203
209
216
222

Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Cum Depreciation
2005
4,185
22,422
2006
4,376
26,799
2007
4,574
31,372
2008
4,777
36,149
2009
4,986
41,136
2010
5,202
46,338
2011
5,424
51,763
2012
2013
2014
229
229
236
229
236
243
5,653
57,416
5,889
63,305
6,132
69,437

2015
Interest paid
a. Stock of Debt
1) IFC A-loan
2) IFC B-loan
3) EFIC / other
1) IFC A-loan
2) IFC B-loan
3) EFIC / other
c. Interest due
1) IFC A-loan
(LIBOR +)
2) IFC B-loan
(LIBOR +)

Total Invest/Yr
Cum Invest
2015
5,002
127,639

Year 1
Year 2
165
Year 3
170
Year 4
175
Year 5
181
Year 6
186
Year 7
192
Year 8
197
Year 9
203
Year 10
209
Year 11
216
Year 12
222

Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Cum Depreciation
2015
229
236
243
250
3,075
72,512
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
Note: All fihures are in thousands of Dong
Exchange Rate (Dong:1$US, 000)
15.0
Discount Rate
SUGAR CANE
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Net Cost US $ /ha
PINEAPPLE
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Seed Sale
Total Revenues
13.3%
Year 1
3,000
1,300
1,700
1,200
7,200
480
Year 1
Year 3
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 4
Year 5
3,000
1,300
1,700
1,200
7,200
480
Year 5
Year 6
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 6
Year 7
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 7
Year 8
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 8
Year 9
3,000
1,300
1,700
1,200
7,200
480
Year 9
Year 10
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 10
Year 11
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 11
Year 12
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 12
Year 13
3,000
1,300
1,700
1,200
7,200
480
Year 13
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
900
3,700
5,500
1,300
11,400
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
900
3,700
5,500
1,300
11,400
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
900
3,700
5,500
1,300
11,400
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
900
3,700
5,500
1,300
11,400
0.0
0
0
0
22.5
550
0
12,375
22.5
550
3,500
15,875
0.0
0
0
0
22.5
550
0
12,375
22.5
550
3,500
15,875
0.0
0
0
0
22.5
550
0
12,375
22.5
550
3,500
15,875
0.0
0
0
0
22.5
550
0
12,375
22.5
550
3,500
15,875
0.0
0
0
0
6,450
430
9,950
663
6,450
430
9,950
663
6,450
430
9,950
663
6,450
430
9,950
663
COFFEE
Year 1
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
Year 2
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 4
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
(11,400)
(760)
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Total Revenues
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 3
900
3,700
5,500
1,300
11,400
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Year 2
Year 2
Year 3
(11,400)
(760)
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
(11,400)
(760)
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
(11,400)
(760)
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
(11,400)
(760)
Year 13
2,625
7,500
1,500
1,500
13,125
6,375
1,300
0
0
7,675
6,375
6,800
0
0
13,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
2,625
7,500
1,500
1,500
13,125
6,375
1,300
0
0
7,675
6,375
6,800
0
0
13,175
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
(13,125)
(875)
(7,675)
(512)
(13,175)
(878)
(13,125)
(875)
(7,675)
(512)
(13,175)
(878)
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
15.0
Discount Rate
RUBBER
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
13.3%
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
3,900
6,000
1,100
0
11,000
3,750
950
0
0
4,700
3,750
950
0
0
4,700
3,750
950
0
0
4,700
3,750
950
0
0
4,700
3,750
950
0
0
4,700
3,750
950
0
0
4,700
3,750
950
0
0
4,700
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Total Revenues
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
(11,000)
(733)
MIXED
RICE
(4,700)
(313)
PEANUTS
(4,700)
(313)
MAIZE
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
3,450
550
400
300
4,700
3,000
600
500
500
4,600
3,000
550
150
500
4,200
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Total Revenues
1.8
2,500
4,375
1.2
4,000
4,800
2.0
1,000
2,000
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
Year 5
(325)
(22)
200
13
(2,200)
(147)
(4,700)
(313)
(4,700)
(313)
(4,700)
(313)
(4,700)
(313)
(4,700)
(313)
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
15.0
Discount Rate
13.3%
Cost of cane
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Incremental Hectares
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
0
Total Cane Cost per Year
614
367
367
367
614
367
367
367
614
367
367
3,226
1,926
1,926
1,926
3,226
1,926
1,926
1,926
3,226
1,926
3,360
2,007
2,007
2,007
3,360
2,007
2,007
2,007
3,360
960
573
573
573
960
573
573
573
480
287
287
287
480
287
287
0
0
614
3,593
5,653
5,260
5,601
6,459
6,513
5,547
5,601
6,459
6,513
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
15.0
Discount Rate
13.3%
Alternative Crop
Crop: Cash Crop (average)
Net Return/ha
1996
1997
1998
1.28
1999
6.72
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
0
Net Alt. Crop per Year
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
(789)
(132)
(176)
(206)
191
268
(206)
191
456
(18)
(65)
134
(463)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
244
343
244
584
(23)
(83)
(1,010)
(169)
(5,305)
(225)
(264)
(885)
(1,183)
(1,385)
1,281
1,803
(1,385)
1,281
3,065
(5,526)
(922)
(1,233)
(1,443)
1,334
1,878
(1,443)
1,334
(1,579)
(263)
(352)
(412)
381
537
(412)
381
(789)
(132)
(176)
(206)
191
268
(206)
(264)
(123)
3,193
0
0
(1,010)
(5,474)
(6,636)
(3,948)
(3,427)
(303)
2,285
912
1,149
4,232
3,161
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
Discount Rate
SUGAR CANE
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Net Cost US $ /ha
PINEAPPLE
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Seed Sale
Total Revenues
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
COFFEE
Year 14
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 14
Year 15
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 15
Year 16
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 16
Year 17
3,000
1,300
1,700
1,200
7,200
480
Year 17
Year 18
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 18
Year 19
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 19
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 20
Year 21
Year 22
Year 23
Year 24
Year 25
Year 26
Year 27
3,000
1,300
1,700
1,200
7,200
480
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
3,000
1,300
1,700
1,200
7,200
480
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 21
Year 22
Year 23
Year 24
Year 25
Year 26
Year 27
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
900
3,700
5,500
1,300
11,400
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
900
3,700
5,500
1,300
11,400
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
900
3,700
5,500
1,300
11,400
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
900
3,700
5,500
1,300
11,400
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
22.5
550
0
12,375
22.5
550
3,500
15,875
0.0
0
0
0
22.5
550
0
12,375
22.5
550
3,500
15,875
0.0
0
0
0
22.5
550
0
12,375
22.5
550
3,500
15,875
0.0
0
0
0
22.5
550
0
12,375
22.5
550
3,500
15,875
0.0
0
0
0
22.5
550
0
12,375
22.5
550
3,500
15,875
6,450
430
9,950
663
6,450
430
9,950
663
6,450
430
9,950
663
6,450
430
9,950
663
6,450
430
9,950
663
Year 14
Year 15
(11,400)
(760)
Year 16
Year 17
Year 18
(11,400)
(760)
Year 19
(11,400)
(760)
Year 22
Year 23
Year 24
Year 25
Year 26
Year 27
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
2,625
7,500
1,500
1,500
13,125
6,375
1,300
0
0
7,675
6,375
6,800
0
0
13,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Total Revenues
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
Year 20
(11,400)
(760)
Year 21
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
Year 20
(13,125)
(875)
(7,675)
(512)
(13,175)
(878)
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
Discount Rate
RUBBER
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Total Revenues
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
MIXED
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Total Revenues
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17
Year 18
Year 19
Year 20
Year 21
Year 22
Year 23
Year 24
Year 25
Year 26
Year 27
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
10,000
1
10,000
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
3,750
250
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
Discount Rate
Cost of cane
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
1996
1997
1998
367
614
367
367
367
614
367
1999
1,926
1,926
3,226
1,926
1,926
1,926
3,226
2000
2,007
2,007
2,007
3,360
2,007
2,007
2,007
2001
960
573
573
573
960
573
573
2002
287
480
287
287
287
480
287
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
0
0
0
5,601
6,459
5,547
5,601
6,459
6,513
5,547
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
Discount Rate
Alternative Crop
Net Return/ha
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17
Year 18
Year 19
378
456
(18)
378
456
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year 20
0
2014
0
2015
1996
1997
1998
1.28
171
484
584
484
584
1999
6.72
(437)
900
2000
(128)
(455)
937
2001
912
(37)
(130)
268
(926)
757
912
2002
191
456
(18)
(65)
134
(463)
378
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
0
0
0
709
(592)
272
(3,110)
(1,837)
(23)
2,542
3,065
(3,239)
2,648
90
4,898
(123)
3,193
3,848
2,542
(128)
4,288
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
Discount Rate
SUGAR CANE
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Net Cost US $ /ha
PINEAPPLE
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Seed Sale
Total Revenues
Year 28
Year 29
Year 30
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
3,000
1,300
1,700
1,200
7,200
480
3,000
1,300
0
0
4,300
287
Year 28
Year 29
Year 30
900
3,700
5,500
1,300
11,400
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
2,025
3,900
0
0
5,925
0.0
0
0
0
22.5
550
0
12,375
22.5
550
3,500
15,875
6,450
430
9,950
663
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
(11,400)
(760)
COFFEE
Year 28
Year 29
Year 30
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
6,375
4,800
0
0
11,175
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Total Revenues
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
1.5
12,000
18,000
6,825
455
6,825
455
6,825
455
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
Discount Rate
RUBBER
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Total Revenues
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
MIXED
Costs / ha
Labor
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land preparation
Total Cost
Revenues
# tons / ha
Price / ton
Total Revenues
Net Return / ha
Net Return US $ /ha
Year 28
Year 29
Year 30
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
3,900
6,000
1,100
0
11,000
3,750
2,500
0
0
6,250
10,000
1
10,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,750
250
(11,000)
(733)
(6,250)
(417)
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
Discount Rate
Cost of cane
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
0
NATL Sugar Project

Crop Economics
Discount Rate
Alternative Crop
Net Return/ha
1996
1997
1998
1.28
1999
6.72
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
0
NATL Sugar Project

Trucking Economics
Assumptions
Exchange Rate (Dong:US$1.00)
Profit per Season

VND 15,000
Revenue
Revenue
Mean travel distance (km,round trip)
Cost to deliver (VND/per ton)
Tons per load (payload)
Average trips per day
Number of days
Revenue per Season
Fuel Costs
Lorry: KM/Gallon
Price/Gallon ($US)
Price/Gallon (Dong)
Total per Day
Gas per Season
Labor Costs
Average Wage per day
Labor per Season
Maintenance per Season
Lorry Costs
Average cost for lorry
Average km for life of lorry
Yearly Interest
Depreciation per km
Deperciation per Season
20
VND 23,080
5.5
3.5
150
VND 66,642,788
12
$1.50
VND 22,500
VND 131,250
VND 19,687,500
VND 30,000
VND 4,500,000
VND 10,000,000
VND 100,000,000
VND 160,000
12.0%
VND 625
VND 6,562,500
Dong
VND 66,642,788
US Dollar
$4,443
Costs
Gas
Wages
Maintenance
Total Costs
(19,687,500)
(4,500,000)
(10,000,000)
(34,187,500)
-1,313
-300
-667
-2,279
Net revenue
Interest
Depreciation
Profit/Loss
32,455,288
(4,931,507)
(6,562,500)
VND 20,961,281
2,164
-164
-438
$1,562
Profit Margin
31%

NATL Financial Model

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NATL Financial Model

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Nghe An Tate & Lyle Sugar Company (Vietnam)

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project

Results from Model

Real Discount rate

Average Sugar Price per Ton

Profit Tax Rate

Social Return (Real Terms)

Returns to Deal Participants

(To calculate the profit margin see "Trucking" spreadsheet)

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Real Discount Rate

Terminal Value Discount Rate- Rest of Society

Value Added Tax (VAT) rate on Cane Cost

2001-2005 After 2005

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

1,650.0 -- here forth % of revenue

Aver price paid (incl. for haulage) in dong

Net Return from alternative crop ($/ha)

Returns to Truck Haulers

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Returns to Truck Haulers

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Returns to Truck Haulers

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Returns to Truck Haulers

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Domestic Sugar Revenue

Sugar produced (tons)

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Domestic Sugar Revenue

Total Cost of Sales

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Returns to Truck Haulers

Rest of Society - Profit Taxes paid by NATL

Rest of Society - Reduced tariffs received

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Net Working Capital

Total Private Free Cash Flow

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nomianl Summary Economic Returns

Real Summary Economic Returns

Total Net Returns to Society

Economic Returns as a Share of Overall NPV

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nomianl Summary Economic Returns

Real Summary Economic Returns

Economic Returns as a Share of Overall NPV

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nominal Depreciation Schedule

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nominal Depreciation Schedule

Depreciation: Straight line depreciation over 20 years

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nghe An Tate and Lyle Sugar Project, Vietnam

Nominal Depreciation Schedule

Depreciation: Straight line depreciation over 20 years