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FLOWS
International Financial
Flows
Structure
4.1
Introduction
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
Summary
4.7
4.8
Further Readings
UNIT 4.1
INTRODUCTION
Funds flowing into, or out of, a country on account of various types of international
transactions are recorded by the monetary authorities of that country in a prescribed
statement that is known as the balance of payments. You find an individual
maintaining an account of his/her cash receipts and payments. A company prepares a
cash-flow statement that shows incoming and outgoing of cash. Similarly, a country
records the inflows and outflows of funds in a statement known as the balance of
payments. In other words, balance of payments is a statement that records all
different forms of funds inflow and outflow and arrives at a conclusion whether there
Is a net inflow in the country / outflow out of the country influencing, in turn, the
foreign exchange reserves possessed by the country.
Thus any discussion of the balance of payments embraces the explanation of what the
different forms of international financial flows are and how they are recorded in the
balance of payments. It also involves the discussion of whether the balance of
payments experiences any disequilibrium, and if it is there, what would be the ways to
make necessary adjustments. These issues form the subject-matter of the present unit.
However, the learners shall be acquainted with the recent trends in India's balance of
payments in order to make the discussion even more meaningful.
4.2
The various types of transactions leading to international financial flows need some
discussion here. Trade flows, invisibles, foreign direct and portfolio investment,
external assistance and external commercial borrowings and some short-term flows
39
International Financial
Environment
40
External assistance and external commercial borrowings are different in the sense
that while the former flows normally from an official institution -bilateral or
multilateral, the latter flows from international banks or other private lenders. The
rate of interest in the former is usually low along with a longer maturity period. The
latter carries market rate of interest and a shorter maturity. Last but not least,
external assistance is manifest often in outright grant that does not require
repayment of principal/interest payment.
Whatever may be the difference between the two, any borrowing from abroad is
treated as inflow of fiends Lending abroad, on the other hand, represents outflow of
funds, However, repayment of loads is treated just the other way,
International Financial
Flows
Try to find out the Quantum of Various financial flows in the context of Indian
Economy.
4.3
Basic Principles
While recording the international financial flows in the balance of payments, a couple
of norms need to be followed. One is that the structure of the balance of payments is
based just on the principles of the double-entry book-keeping. It means that all the
inflows of funds are put on the credit side and all the outflows of funds are debited;
and ultimately, the two sides are balanced.
The second norm is that since the different forms of the financial flows vary in
nature, they are to be entered accordingly in the two compartments of the balance of
payments. It may be mentioned that the balance of payments statement is divided into
two compartments. One is known as the current account followed by the other known
as the capital account. Those transactions that represent earning or spending are
recorded in the current account. For example, when a country earns foreign exchange
through export, the amount is entered in the current account. On the other hand, if'
the financial flow does not represent earning, it is entered in the capital account. For
example, foreign direct investment or foreign portfolio investment is entered in the
capital account. Thus, it is on this basis that the different types of financial flows are
recorded in the current and the capital accounts.
Prescribed Format for Recording transactions
Current Account
As per the prescribed format adopted by the Reserve Bank of India (shown in Table
4.1), in the current account, first, merchandise trade is entered. Export receipts are
entered on the credit side and the imports are entered on the debit side. And then, the
balance is found out. The difference between the export and the import is known as
the balance of trade. Excess of export over import is known as the surplus balance of
trade and, on the contrary, the excess of import over export is known as the deficit
balance of trade. Table 4.1 shows a deficit balance of trade amounting to $ 38.130
billion.
41
International Financial
Environment
The second item to be entered in the current account is nothing but invisibles.
Invisibles, as mentioned earlier, include primarily:
1.
Trade in services
2.
Investment income
3.
Unilateral transfers
There are both inflows and outflows on account of invisibles. The inflows are entered
on the credit side and the outflows are entered on the debit side. However, a common
practice is that only the net amount is written in the current account.
After entering the invisibles, balancing is done for the whole of the current account.
This balance is known as the balance of current account. The debit side being bigger
than the credit side shows a deficit balance of current account. On the contrary, the
excess of credit side over the debit side for the whole of the current account shows a
surplus balance of current account. Table 4.1 shows a deficit balance of current
account amounting to $ 6.431 billion.
Table 4.1: India's Balance of Payments during 2004-05
(Amount in US $ billion)
A. Current Account
Amount
Exports
80.831
Imports
118.961
Balance of Trade
-38.130
Invisibles (net)
31.699
Services
14.690
Income
-3.979
Transfers
21.048
-6.431
B. Capital Account
Foreign direct investment (net)
3.037
8.907
1.922
5.947
Banking capital
4.002
Short-term credits
3.792
Others
4.568
Overall Balance
Monetary Movements
IMF (net)
42
32.175
0.415
26.159
-26.159
26.159
Similarly, external assistance and external commercial borrowing are also shown net
repayment. Here the readers must be aware of the fact the repayment is subject matter
of capital account whereas the interest payment showing a sort of earning is a part of
invisibles. Again, the banking capital is inclusive of both short-term and long-term
funds. Short-term credits are purely short-term funds. Finally, the two sides of longterm and short-term funds are balanced that is known as balance of capital account,
Table 4:1 shows the balance of capital account amounting to US $ 32.175 billion.
International Financial
Flows
Statistical Discrepancy
After recording different forms of international financial flows in the balance of
payments, the statistical discrepancy, often known as errors and omissions, is also
recorded. The statistical discrepancy arises on different accounts. Firstly, it arises
because of difficulties involved in collecting balance of payments data. There are
different sources of data that sometimes differ in their approach. In India, the trade
figures differ between those compiled by the Reserve Bank of India and those
compiled by the Director-General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics. Secondly,
the movement of funds may lead or lag the transactions that they (funds) are
supposed to finance. For example, goods are shipped in March, but the payments are
received in April. If figures are compiled on the 31st March, the figures may differ if
the shipment is the basis of collecting data from those which are based on the actual
payment. Such differences lead to the emergence of statistical discrepancy. Thirdly,
certain figures are derived on the basis of estimates. For example, figures for earning
on travel and tourism account are estimated on the basis of sample cases. If the
sample is defective, there is every possibility for the emergence of errors and
omissions. Fourthly, errors and omissions are explained by unrecorded illegal
transactions that may be either on debit side or on credit side or on both sides. Only
the net amount is written on the balance of payments. Table 10.1 shows the amount at
US $ 415 million on this account.
The Overall Balance
After the statistical discrepancy is located, the overall balance is arrived at. The
overall balance represents the balancing between the credit items and the debit items
appearing on the current account, capital account and the statistical discrepancy.
Table 1 shows an overall balance that is surplus by US $ 26.159 billion during
2004-05.
Official Reserves Account
If the overall balance is surplus, the surplus amount is transferred to the official
reserves account that increases the foreign exchange reserves held by the monetary
authorities. They comprise of monetary gold, SDR allocations by the IMF and the
foreign currency assets. The foreign currency assets are normally held in the form of
deposits with foreign central banks and investment in foreign government securities.
It there is deficit, an amount equivalent to the deficit is drawn from the official
reserves account bringing the balance of payments into equilibrium. Again, if the
amount of foreign exchange reserves is not sufficient to meet the deficit, the
government approaches the International Monetary Fund for the balance of payments
support. In Table 4.1, where the overall balance shows surplus, there is no need to
approach the IMF.
43
International Financial
Environment
4.4
44
If the elasticity of demand is greater than unity, the import bill will contract and export
earnings will increase as a sequel to devaluation. Trade deficit will be removed.
However, the problem is that the trade partner may also devalue its own currency as a
retaliatory measure. Moreover, there may be a long lapse of time before the
quantities adjust sufficiently to changes in price. Till then, trade balance will be even
worse than that before devaluation.
International Financial
Flows
Stem (1973) incorporated the concept of supply elasticity in the elasticity approach.
Based on the figures of British exports and imports, Stem has come to a conclusion that
the balance of trade should improve if:
1.
Elasticity of demand for exports and imports is high and is equal to one coupled
with elasticity of supply both for imports and exports which is either high or low.
2.
Elasticity of demand for imports and exports is low but the elasticity of supply
for imports and exports is lower.
On the contrary, if the elasticity of demand is low matched with high elasticity of
supply, the balance of trade should worsen.
The Keynesian Approach
The Keynesian view takes into consideration primarily the income effect that was
ignored under the elasticity approach. There are various versions of the Keynesian
approach. One is the absorption approach that explains the relationship between
domestic output and trade balance and conceives of adjustment. Sidney A. Alexander
(1959) treats balance of trade as a residual given by the difference between what the
economy produces and what it takes for domestic use or what it absorbs. He begins
with the contention that the total output, Y is equal to the sum of consumption, C,
investment, I , government spending, G, and net export (X-M). In form of an
equation,
Y=C+I+G+(X-M)
Substituting C +l+ G by absorption, A, it can be rewritten as:
Y=A +X-M
or
Y-A=X-M
This means that the amount, by which total output exceeds total spending or
absorption is represented by export over import or the net export which means a
surplus balance of
trade. This also means that if A > Y , deficit balance of trade will occur. This is
because excess absorption in absence of desired output will cause imports. Thus in
order to bring equilibrium in the balance of trade, the government has to increase
output or income. Increase in income without corresponding and equal increase in
absorption will lead to improvement in balance of trade.
In case of full employment, where resources are fully employed, output cannot be
expanded. Balance of trade deficit can be remedied through decreasing absorption
without equal fall in output. It may be noted that validity of absorption approach
depends upon the operation of the multiplier effect that is essential for accelerating
output generation, It also depends on the marginal propensity to absorb that
determines the rate of absorption.
J. Black (1959) explains the absorption in a slightly different way. He ignores the
governmental expenditure, G and equates X - M with S - I (where S is saving and I is
investment). He is of the opinion that when balance of trade is negative, the country
has to increase saving on the one hand and to reduce investment, on the other. In case
of full employment, he suggests for redistribution of national income in favour of
profit earners who possess greater propensity to save.
45
International Financial
Environment
Again, Mundell (1968) incorporates also interest rate and capital account in the
ambit of discussion. In his view, it is not only the government spending but also the
interest rate that does have an influence on income as well on the balance of
payments. While larger government spending increases income, an increase in
income leads to rise in import. With a positive marginal propensity to import, any
rise in income as a sequel to increase in government spending will lead to greater
imports and worsen the current account. However, changes in interest rate
influence both the capital account and the current account. A higher interest rate
will lead to improvement in current account through lowering of income. At the
same time, a higher interest rate will improve the capital account through attracting
the flow of foreign investment.
Yet again, the New Cambridge School approach takes into account savings (S) and
investment (I), taxes (T) and government spending (G) and their impact on the trade
account. In form of equation, it can be written as:
S+T+M=G+X+I
Or
(S - I ) + ( T - G ) + ( M - X ) = 0
Or
( X - M ) =(S - I)+ ( T - G )
46
However, in a floating-rate regime, the demand for money is adjusted to the supply
of money via changes in exchange rate. Especially in a situation when the central
bank makes no market intervention, the international reserves component of the
monetary
International Financial
Flows
When the central bank increases domestic credit through open market operations,
supply of money is greater than the demand for it. The households increase their
imports. With increased demand for imports, the domestic currency will depreciate
and it will continue depreciating until supply of money equals the demand for money.
Conversely, with decrease in domestic credit, the households reduce their import.
Domestic currency will appreciate and it will continue appreciating until supply of
money equals demand for money.
In case of managed floating, the central bank often intervenes to peg the rates at some
desired level. And so this case is a mix of fixed and floating rate regimes. It means
that changes in the monetary supply and demand do influence the exchange rate but
also the quantum of international reserves.
4.5
47
International Financial
Environment
Import
Export Trade
Invisibles (net)
Balance Of
Balance
Current
Total
Investment Remittances
I991-92
21064
18266
-2798
1620
-3830
3798
-1178
1992-93
24316
18869
-5447
1921
-3423
3865
-3526
1993-94
26739
22683
-4056
2898
-3270
5287
- 1158
1994-95
35904
26855
-9049
5680
-3431
8112
-3369
1995-96
43670
32311
-11359
5460
-3205
8539
-5899
1996-97
48063
33764
-14294 10638
-3250
11139
-3631
1997-98
51126
34849
-16277
9804
-3457
11830
-6473
1998-99
47544
34298
-13246
9208
-3544
10587
-4038
1999-00
55383
38285
-17098 12935
-3559
12638
-4163
2000-01
59264
44894
-14370 12106
-3918
12798
-2264
2001-02
57618
44915
-12703 14054
-2654
12125
1351
2002-03
65474
53000
-12474 16182
-4882
14448
3708
2003-04
79658
62952
-16706 25425
-4703
19444
8719
80831
-38130 31699
-3979
21048
-6431
2004-05
48
International Financial
Flows
Millions of US Dollar
1991-92
3031
948
786
133
3777
Foreign
Currency
Assets at
the
Year- end
5631
1992,-93
1856
-1445
1288
567
2936
6434
1993-94
1896
-84
187
4235
9695.
15068
1994-95
1518
1517
-1143
4807
9156
20809
1995-96
867
1334
-1715
4604
4678
17044
1996-97
1101
1855
-975
5834
10454
22367
1997-98
877
4010
-618
4993
11924
25975
1998-99
799
4367
393
2312
8565
29522
1999-00
891
333
-260
5117
10242
35058
2000-01
410
4016
-26
2911
7487
42281
2001-02
1204
-1147
5925
9545
51049
2002-03
-2460
-1698
4555
12638
71890
2003-04
-2661
-1853
14492
22122
112959
2004-05
1922
5947
11944
32175
141514
Year
External
Assistance
(net)
Commercial
Borrowings
(net)
IMF
Funds
(net)
Foreign
Investment
(net)
Total
Capital
Account
(net)
4.6
SUMMARY
All the international financial flows arising out of various international financial
transactions are recorded by the monetary authorities of a country in a statement
known as balance of payments.
Balance of payments entries are bifurcated into current and capital accounts based
on whether, or not, those entries show the flow of real income.
While the current account includes merchandise trade and invisibles, capital
account embraces foreign investment, external assistance, external commercial
borrowing and the movement of short-term funds.
Statistical discrepancy, if any, is added and then the current account, capital
account and the statistical discrepancy are summed up in order to arrive at the
overall balance. If the overall balance is positive, it adds to the foreign exchange
reserves. If it is negative, foreign exchange reserves are eroded to that extent; or in
case of insufficient reserves, IMF is approached to bridge the deficit.
49
International Financial
Environment
4.7
1.
2.
Comment on the structure of balance of payments. What are the basic principles
governing recording of the flows?
3.
How can the trade deficit be reduced or eliminated? Give your arguments based
on the elasticity approach,
4.
5.
6.
4.8
FURTHER READINGS
50
P.K. Jain, Josette Peyrard and Surendra S. Yadav (1998), International Financial
Management, Macmillan India Ltd., New Delhi. 50