Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 41

pg 134

Reason to cease this project

Consolidated Statements of Income


2013
Revenue (notes 5 and 6)
Costs and expenses
Cost of sales (notes 5 and 7)
General and administrative expenses (note 10)
Exploration and evaluation (notes 5 and 8)
Other expense (income) (note 9a)
Impairment charges (note 9b)
Loss from equity investees (note 15a) 12
Gain on non-hedge derivatives (note 24e)
Loss before finance items and income taxes
Finance items
Finance income
Finance costs (note 13)
Loss before income taxes
Income tax (expense) recovery (note 11)
Loss from continuing operations
Loss from discontinued operations (note 4b)
Net loss (income)
Attributable to:
Equity holders of Barrick Gold Corporation
Non-controlling interests (note 31)

12,511

2012
14,394

7,243
390
208
878
12,687
(76)
(8,819)

7,257
503
359
303
6,294
12
(31)
(303)

9
(657)
(9,467)
(630)
(10,097)
(506)
(10,603)

11
(174)
(466)
102
(364)
(185)
(549)

(10,366)
(237)

(538)
(11)

2011
14,312
6,316
166
346
576
235

4,537

Earnings per share data attributable to the equity holders of Barrick Gold Corporation (note 12)
Loss from continuing operations
Basic
(9.65)
(0.35)
Diluted
(9.65)
(0.35)
Loss from discontinued operations
Basic
(0.49)
(0.19)
Diluted
(0.49)
(0.19)
Net loss
Basic
(10.14)
(0.54)
Diluted
(10.14)
(0.54)

2010
11,001
5,162
156
229
445
(75)

3,630

2014
Revenue (notes 5 and 6)
Costs and expenses
Cost of sales (notes 5 and 7)
General and administrative expenses (note 10)
Exploration and evaluation (notes 5 and 8)
Other expense (income) (note 9a)
Impairment charges (note 9b)
Loss from equity investees (note 15a) 12

9,611

Loss before finance items and income taxes

1,508

6,900
390
200
475
138
-

2014 assumed quantities


6.25 gold production
485 copper production
1300 gold price
3.25 copper price
8,039
1,572
9,611
To estimate the Gold and Cooper quantity that will be sold, we used data from previous years
Statistics
Year
000s ounces
gold produced
gold sold

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

7.166
7.174

7.421
7.292

7.676
7.55

7.765
7.734

7.397
7.279

percentage ( Sold/produced)
average percentage of gold sold

100%
99%

98%

98%

100%

98%

539
519

468
472

451
444

368
391

393
380

96%
100%

101%

98%

106%

97%

millions of pounds
Copper produced
Copper Sold
percentage ( Sold/produced)
average percentage of Copper sold

2014
Revenue (notes 5 and 6)
Delta

2013

9611.111

12,511

-23.18%

-13.08%

Average

2012
14,394
0.57%

2011

2010

2009

2008

14,312

11,001

8,136

7,613

30.10%

35.21%

6.87%

26.59%

14.38%

Growth
2014
2015
2016

0%
0%
0%
0.00%

2017

2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%

g1

2022
g2
Terminal year growth rate

Net operating cash flow


has decreased to
$1,016.00 million or
39.23% when compared
to the same quarter last
year. Despite a decrease
in cash flow of 39.23%,
BARRICK GOLD CORP
is in line with the industry
average cash flow growth
rate of -39.72%.

0.57%

2007
6,014

, , maturity

Revenues shemcirdeba am mizezebit

WACC=wd*kd(1-t)+ws*ks

Equity
Debt

There is no Preffered Stock

20,869
12,901

We
Wd

62%
38%

ks
krf
km
beta
ks

kd
Int. expense
Debt

3.42%
13.40%
0.24

5.8%

589
12,901

kd

4.57%

WACC

4.64%

EBIT
tax rate

EBIT(1-Tax)
Depreciation

2010
5233
31%
40%

2011
2014
7010 1508.111
34%
55%
40%

3151.64
1212
4363.64

4221.86 908.2789
1419
1810
5640.86 2718.279

Capital expend.
Working capital

3788

4973

Current assets
Current liabilities

7071
2491
4580

6545
2911
3634

delta WC

-946

FCFF

2,400

3167
1,614

(2,849)

2015

2016

Note 1
1) depr. Charge
estimated c
depr.cost
gold
prod (ounce)
depr per ounce

Depreciation
500
0.5
250
6.5
240
1560

Note 2
Working capital
From 2013 BS
Current assets
5889
Current liabilities
2722
delta WC
3167

2015shi gadis +ze


2014

2015

2016

2017

FCF
NPV
Debt
Equity Value
Terminal Value

1,613.86
$36,321.42
12,901
$23,420.42
45,107.70

2018
1,654.21

2019
1,695.56
$1.74

2020
1,737.95

2021
1,781.40

2022
1,825.93

2023
1836.39617
45,107.70

Gordon Growth Model


This model is designed to value the equity in a stable firm paying dividends , which are roughly equal to Free Cashflows to Equ

Dividends
Number of shares
D(0)

2013
508
20,869
0.024

Dividends
growth rate
ks

Horizon

Equity Value

$0.18
$0.33
$0.50
10,502

2014

2015

2016

0.0243

0.0243

0.0243

0%

0%

0%

5.82%

5.82%

5.82%

0.0230

0.0217

0.0205

al to Free Cashflows to Equity

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

0.0250

0.0256

0.0262

0.027

0.0275

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

0.57%

5.82%

5.82%

5.82%

5.82%

5.82%

5.82%

5.82%

0.0199

0.0193

0.0187

0.0181

0.0175

0.0170

0.0282 0.028391 0.028554

0.54469

Gordon Growth Model

GORDON GROWTH MODEL


This model is designed to value the equity in a stable firm paying
dividends, which are roughly equal to Free Cashflows to
Equity.
Assumptions in the model:
1. The firm is in steady state and will grow at a stable rate forever.
2. The firm pays out what it can afford to in dividends, i.e., Dividends = FCFE.
User defined inputs
The user has to define the following inputs to the model:
1. Current Earnings per share and Payout ratio (Dividends/Earnings)
2. Cost of Equity or Inputs to the CAPM (Beta, Riskfree rate, Risk Premium)
3. Expected Growth Rate in Earnings and dividends forever.

Page 38

Gordon Growth Model

Please enter inputs to the model:


Current Earnings per share =

(in currency)

Current Payout Ratio =

(in percent)

Are you directly entering the cost of equity? (Yes or No)


If yes, enter cost of equity =

(in percent)

If no, enter the inputs for the CAPM


Beta of the stock =
Riskfree rate =

(in percent)

Risk Premium=

(in percent)

Expected Growth Rate =

(in percent)

The expected growth rate for a stable firm


cannot be significantly higher than the nominal
growth rate in the economy in which the firm
operates. It can be lower.

Warnings:
Payout ratio is low for a stable firm

Page 39

Gordon Growth Model

This is the output from the Gordon Growth Model


Firm Details: from inputs on prior page
Current Dividends per share =

$0.02

Cost of Equity =

5.82%

Expected Growth rate =

0.57%

Gordon Growth Model Value =

Value
$0.77
$0.58
$0.47
$0.39
$0.33
$0.29
$0.25
$0.23
$0.20

Value vs. Expected Growth

Value of Stock

Growth rate
2.57%
1.57%
0.57%
-0.43%
-1.43%
-2.43%
-3.43%
-4.43%
-5.43%

0.46673296

$0.90
$0.80
$0.70
$0.60
$0.50
$0.40
$0.30
$0.20
$0.10
$0.00

Expected Growth Rate

Page 40