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Ryan Davine

Global Business HW #3

Dr. Tang

1.

In this scenario, Porsche should sell the dollars forward at the 60-day rate on July 1st, and hold on
to the dollars in order to benefit from the more lucrative US interest rate. The strategy will result
in approx. 899k, and a small increase (.2%) over the option to convert immediately to euros.

Ryan Davine

Global Business HW #3

Dr. Tang

2. Please explain why when the currency value is not managed, the foreign exchange rate
mechanism can adjust trade imbalance by itself.
While most countries try to manage the value of their currency in pursuit of their
own national interests, there seems to be an international trend toward greater exchange
rate flexibility.i A freely floating currency exchange would institute a system of nearperfect competition incorporating virtually all-international market forces, and help
insulate countries from international risks. In a hypothetical free-floating currency
system, countries would benefit from currency value fluctuations helping to balance their
trade with international markets - as currency devaluations make that countries exports
cheaper and more attractive to international markets, while inversely making imports
more expensive and less desirable.

In a purely hypothetical free-float scenario: I want to purchase German bier with


US dollars and I find out that the dollar is losing value in relation to the euro. This
dollar devaluation makes my favorite German bier more expensive for me to
import and consume responsibly in the US (negatively impacting the level of US
imports). It would also make US beer companies that compete in those foreign
markets more attractive, Yuengling (US) would be cheaper for Germans to import
to Germany, as such the American export balance benefits because their products
are cheaper relative to the foreign currency and are more attractive to foreign
consumers as a result.

In such a scenario, the invisible hand of the free market would naturally help ease
trade deficits and relatively stabilize current account balances over timeii, net trade
balances would be sustainable and near-zero. The countries would benefit by establishing
a true and sustainable Balance of Payments, and also eliminate some of the hot money
opportunities in the international markets.

Ryan Davine

Global Business HW #3

Dr. Tang

3. Explain the benefits and drawbacks of having a strong currency for the United States
Having a strong currency relative to trade partners has a positive impact on
imports, as consumers react to the lower price points at which the foreign products are
offered in the local market. It becomes cheaper for Americans to go on vacations, buy
foreign property, buy cheese from France and chocolate from Belgium, cars from Japan,
etc. Additionally, US Companies FDI levels would increase, since the dollar has more
purchasing power in the foreign markets with which US firms can procure products,
services, land, and labor cheaper than before.
The rise in imports has a severe negative effect on the trade balance, as US
exports struggle to maintain competitiveness with higher prices in foreign markets. In the
domestic markets, consumers have changed their consumption patterns - acquired a new
taste for imported goods, at the expense of the domestic substitutes. American companies
that produce solely for the domestic market are hurt, and American exporters are
dramatically impacted by a stronger dollar.

The trend toward greater exchange rate flexibility is likely to continue as deepening cross-border
linkages increase the exposure of countries with pegged regimes to volatile capital flows because
flexible regimes offer better protection against external shocks as well as greater monetary policy
independence..( http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues/issues38/ei38.pdf)
ii

Although the current account differs from the merchandise trade account by the amount of services
trade and international factor payments, the two are highly correlated for most countries
(http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd201223_e.pdf)

http://home.gwu.edu/~jwyang/B102%20Notes%20on%20IMS.pdf
http://www.economicswebinstitute.org/glossary/exchrate.htm

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