Tarragona, 13 November 2013

Low Carbon Industrial Manufacturing Parks

Climate Change Policies

Jess Abada

1921

2009
Panoramic view of West Rongbuk Glacier and Mount Everest, 1921-2009

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IPCC Fith Assessment Report
WG1. The Physical Science Basis

IPCC Fith Assessment Report

WG1. The Physical Science Basis
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Warming of the climate system is

unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of
the observed changes are unprecedented
over decades to millennia.

Observed Changes in the Climate System

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The atmosphere and ocean have

warmed

Observed Changes in the Climate System

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the amounts of snow and ice
have diminished

sea level has risen

Observed Changes in the Climate System

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and the concentrations of

greenhouse gases have increased.

Last 14 May 2013, the record of 400 ppm was reached

Observed Changes in the Climate System

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Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in
changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level
rise, and in changes in some climate extremes.
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of
the observed warming since the mid-20th century

Future Global and Regional Climate Change

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Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5C relative to
1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6.
It is likely to exceed 2C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2C for RCP4.5.
Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will continue
to exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform.

Observed Changes in the Climate System

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It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will
continue to shrink and thin and that Northern
Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease
during the 21st century as global mean surface
temperature rises.

Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the

21st century. Under all RCP scenarios the rate of sea
level rise will very likely exceed that observed during
19712010 due to increased ocean warming and
increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.

Future Global and Regional Climate Change

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Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st
century and beyond. Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of
CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by
past, present and future emissions of CO2.

2
The Emissions Gap Report 2013
UNEP
Syntesis Report, November 2013

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Options to narrow the emissions gap in 2020

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BaU 59 Gt

To narrow this gap, big

efforts of all sectors,
technologies and regions
are needed,

2C Limit 44 Gt

Power sector
Industry
Transport
Buildings
Waste
Forestry
Aghriculture

and the international

cooperation.
The Emissions Gap Report 2013. A UNEP Synthesis Report. November 2013

Considering the pledges, the gap is 8-12 GtCO2e/y

consistent to a global increment of 2C
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BaU 59 Gt
56 Gt
Pletges
52 Gt

PLEDGES. Copenhage Accord

2C Limit 44 Gt

Brazil
Canada
China
EU27 (-20%)
India
Indonesia

The Emissions Gap Report 2013. A UNEP Synthesis Report. November 2013

Japan
Mexico
Rep of Korea
Russian Fed.
South Africa
USA

2020 Gap:
8-12 Gt CO2e
16-25% current
emmisions

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UNFCCC
CoP 19

14

UNFCCC Warsaw Climate Change Conference

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Ladies and gentlemen, we gather today under the weight of many sobering
realities, of which I will mention only two.
The first we experience every day and do not notice. Please take a deep
breath. As you do, be aware that we are the first human beings to ever breathe
air with 400 parts per million CO2.
The second is the devastating impact of Typhoon Haiyan, one of the most
powerful typhoons to ever make landfall.
This is why COP 19 must deliver on several key areas.:
We must clarify finance that enables the entire world to move towards lowcarbon development.
We must launch the construction of a mechanism that helps vulnerable
populations to respond to the unanticipated effects of climate change.
We must deliver an effective path to pre-2020 ambition, and develop further
clarity for elements of the new agreement that will shape the post-2020
global climate, economic and development agendas.
Opening statement by Ms. Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary
11 November 2013

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EU Climate and Energy Policies
Emissions Trading Scheme

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EU ETS has characterized by over allocation

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Phase 2 ended with 1.800 Mt surplus

Supply and demand balance EU ETS Phase 1 and 2

Price trends for EUAs and CERs, 20052012

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How the carryover of Phase 2 surplus impacts on the

-20% target
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Source: Sandbag

The surplus could be around 2.200 Mt at the end of

Phase 3
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COM(2012) 652 final. REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL.
The state of the European carbon market in 2012

Reforms are needed to balance the EU ETS market

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OPTIONS PROPOSED BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION

1. Increasing the EU reduction target to 30 % in 2020;

1. Retiring a number of allowances in the third trading period;

2. Early revision of the annual linear reduction factor;
3. Extension of the scope of the EU ETS to other sectors;
4. Limit access to international credits;
5. Discretionary price management mechanism.

COM(2012) 652 final. REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND
THE COUNCIL. The state of the European carbon market in 2012

Main challenges of the EU 2030 framework

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Key EU Climate and Energy Policies

2020 Package (20/20/20)

A 20% reduction in EU GHG emissions from 1990 levels;

Raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable resources to 20%;
A 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency

Roadmap 2050 (-80% CO2 at 2050)

2030 framework for EU climate change and energy policies

2030 Targets: 35-45% GHG emissions; 25-35% RES; 22-33% EE ??

2050 Target: The EU's present policies are not sufficient to reach the -80%
Framework: Development of low carbon techs need a clear and coherent climate and energy policy
Security of energy supplies: import of fossil fuels, role of shale gas, CCS, RES
Competitivenes: High prices of climate and energy policies

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To finalize

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Some recommendations for business

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The pressure to transformation to a low carbon economic will increase

Know the carbon footprint of the chain value and the regulatory and

markets risks

The innovation in low carbon processes, energy efficiency and use of

renewables is key

Evaluate the vulnerability of the company to climate risks and the options

for adapting to climate change

Incorporate the mitigation and adaptation issues in the strategy of the

company

Thanks for your attention!

Jess Abada Ibez
Climate Change and Sustainability Advisor
jesus.abadia@hotmail.es

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