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2. Mapping hydrates key to prevent well blow outs and methane release
Weitemeyer et al 11Ph.D. in Earth Science from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San
Diego. [A marine electromagnetic survey to detect gas hydrate at Hydrate Ridge, Oregon, K. A.
Weitemeyer, S. Constable, and A. M. Trehu, Geophysics Journal International, Volume 187, 2011, pp
45-62, accessed from Emory] // AG
Natural gas hydrate, a type of clathrate, is an ice-like solid that consists of a gas molecule, typically
methane, encaged by a water lattice (Sloan 1990). Methane hydrates are found worldwide in marine and
permafrost regions where the correct thermobaric conditions exist and sufficient water and gas molecules
are available (Sloan 1990; Kvenvolden 2003). The quantity and distribution of gas hydrate in
sediments is important because of its potential as an energy resource (Moridis & Sloan 2007) and as
a trigger for slope instability (Mienert et al. 2005; Nixon & Grozic 2007; Paull et al. 2007; Sultan et al.
2004; Smith et al. 2004; Field & Barber 1993), which may threaten seafloor infrastructure
(Kvenvolden 2000; Hovland & Gudmestad 2001). As more deep drilling and production operations are
carried out within the thermodynamic stability conditions for hydrate (Dawe & Thomas 2007) the
consequences of drilling into hydrate sediments will become a bigger threat, since drilling and
production fluids can cause hydrate to dissociate and cause wells to blow out (Ostergaard et al.
2000).
Seismic data alone are often insufficient for accurately resolving the amount of gas hydrate in
sediments. One seismic signature often associated with gas hydrate occurrence is a bottom
simulating reflector (BSR), which typically marks the phase change of solid hydrate above and free
gas below the BSR (Shipley et al. 1979). However, the BSR may not indicate the existence of
hydrate , as was observed on DSDP Leg 84 site 496 and site 596 (Sloan 1990, p. 424; Sloan & Koh
2007, p. 575). In fact, it requires very little gas to form a strong seismic reflector (Domenico 1977). Other
types of seismic signatures have been noted at Blake Ridge by Hornback et al. (2003) and Gorman et al.
(2002), such as a fossil BSR, seismic blanking and seismic bright spots. While seismic methods are often
able to detect the lower stratigraphic bound of hydrate, the diffuse upper bound is not well imaged and
there is often no seismic reflectivity signature from within the hydrate region.
Hydrate is electrically resistive compared to the surrounding water saturated sediments
(Collett&Ladd 2000), which provides a target for marine electromagnetic (EM) methods. Marine
EM methods can be used to image the bulk resistivity structure of the subsurface and are able to
augment seismic data to provide valuable information about gas hydrate distribution in the marine
environment (Edwards 1997; Yuan & Edwards 2000).
methane and other gases (e.g., CO2, H2S) into the atmosphere, and flooding large areas of land.
Whereas pure methane is lighter than air, methane loaded with water droplets is much heavier, and thus
spreads over the land, mixing with air in the process (and losing water as rain). The airmethane mixture is
explosive at methane concentrations between 5% and 15%; as such mixtures form in different locations
near the ground and are ignited by lightning, explosions2 and conflagrations destroy most of the
terrestrial life, and also produce great amounts of smoke and of carbon dioxide. Firestorms carry
smoke and dust into the upper atmosphere, where they may remain for several years (Turco et al.,
1991); the resulting darkness and global cooling may provide an additional kill mechanism.
Conversely, carbon dioxide and the remaining methane create the greenhouse effect, which may lead to
global warming. The outcome of the competition between the cooling and the warming tendencies is
difficult to predict (Turco et al., 1991; Pierrehumbert, 2002).
Upon release of a significant portion of the dissolved methane, the ocean settles down, and the
entire sequence of events (i.e., development of anoxia, accumulation of dissolved methane, the
metastable state, eruption) begins anew. No external cause is required to bring about a methane-driven
eruptionits mechanism is self-contained, and implies that eruptions are likely to occur repeatedly at the
same location.
Because methane is isotopically light, its fast release must result in a negative carbon isotope
excursion in the geological record. Knowing the magnitude of the excursion, one can estimate the
amount of methane that could have produced it. Such calculations (prompted by the methane-hydratedissociation model, but equally applicable here) have been performed for several global events in the
geological record; the results range from ;1018 to 1019 g of released methane (e.g., Katz et al., 1999;
Kennedy et al., 2001; de Wit et al., 2002). These are very large amounts: the total carbon content of
todays terrestrial biomass is ;2 3 1018 g. Nevertheless, relatively small regions of the deep ocean could
contain such amounts of dissolved methane; e.g., the Black Sea alone (volume ;0.4 3 1023 of the ocean
total; maximum depth only 2.2 km) could hold, at saturation, ;0.5 3 1018 g. A similar region of the deep
ocean could contain much more (the amount grows quadratically with depth3). Released in a geological
instant (weeks, perhaps), 1018 to 1019 g of methane could destroy the terrestrial life almost entirely.
Combustion and explosion of 0.75 3 1019 g of methane would liberate energy equivalent to 108 Mt
of TNT, ;10,000 times greater than the worlds stockpile of nuclear weapons , implicated in the
nuclearwinter scenario (Turco et al., 1991).
threshold was probably reached, which was beyond where the natural systems that normally reduce
carbon dioxide levels could operate effectively. The system spiralled out of control, leading to the
biggest crash in the history of life.
be needed. A final multi-well pilot test will also likely be needed, and could occur in Alaska before 2020.
Assuming success of near-term efforts in Alaska, a production test program could be envisioned for
the Gulf of Mexico within the decade, with a second test required shortly after, resulting in
improved assessment of the possible scale of marine hydrate technical and commercial
recoverability by 2025. Such marine testing programs will require a strong national commitment.
Natural reserves of gas hydrates in the earth can be used as a gas/natural gas supply by providing
the increasing amounts of energy needed by the world economy. The estimated amount of methane
in situ gas reserves is approximately 10^16 cubic meters [36,37]. Furthermore, there are estimations
showing that there are more organic carbon reserves present globally as methane hydrates than all
other forms of fossil fuels [38]. It is currently believed that if only about 1% of the estimated
reserves of methane from methane hydrate reserves are recovered, it may be enough for the United
States to satisfy its energy demands for the next eight decades [39]. There are generally three
methods of methane production form these hydrate reserves: 1. Pressure reduction in the reservoirs
to conditions below the gas hydrate equilibrium pressure; 2. Increasing the temperature of the
reservoir by heating up to a temperature above that needed for equilibrium (or hydrate dissociation
temperature); 3. Addition of alternate gases or inhibitors such as CO2 or methanol which would
replace methane within the hydrate structures or change the stability conditions of the
corresponding hydrates [40]. Although methane/natural gas has not yet been produced from gas hydrate
reserves on a commercial scale and also interestingly it has not been included in the EPPA model in
MITEIs Future of Natural Gas report, it is still considered as a promising approach which should
begin to be exploited within the next 15 years, mainly due to the fact that conventional natural gas
reservoirs are being depleted very rapidly [41]. Detailed experimental and theoretical studies (e.g.
thermodynamic and kinetic models, effects of the physical parameters on the gas hydrate reservoirs,
exploitation of the reserves, methods of gas recovery, economical study of the process of extraction of
methane/natural gas from gas hydrate reserves) have been well-established in the literature [3886].
our understanding
of methane hydrates in nature and as potential energy resource, geohazard, or contributor to global climate change
depends on the ability of the research community to communicate the knowledge to the public.
3. Peak oil has been briefly placed on the backburner. However, if we do not use
this time wisely we will face a supply crunch and social collapse
Foss 12 - Co-editor of The Automatic Earth [Nicole Foss, The Guardian Is Ignoring The Critical
Paradox Of Peak Oil, The Automatic Earth | Jul. 9, 2012, 1:56 PM pg:
http://theautomaticearth.org/Energy/peak-oil-a-dialogue-with-george-monbiot.html#ixzz20HZlJfhx
I sent George a short response to his article, by way of opening a dialogue:
What we are facing is a demand and price collapse that will render unconventional supplies
uneconomic. Natural gas is leading the way over the next few years. The high cost and low EROEI are fatal flaws.
And received this reply:
If there's a collapse in demand, peak oil is not an issue, right? If there's a resurgence of demand, unconventionals become economic again. As for
EROEI being a constraint, try telling that to the tar sands producers in Alberta.
With best wishes,
George
The debate continues. Here is my next installment:
A demand collapse will certainly put peak oil on the backburner for a number of years. The next few years will be
remembered for financial crisis as we move into what will be at least as bad as the Great Depression (and very likely worse, since the bubble was
much larger this time). Peak
We have used the cheap and accessible oil (and other fossil fuels) and what remains will be exceptionally,
and increasingly, expensive in both financial and energy terms. Predictable consequences will
follow from this, but in a complex interaction with many other factors, notably the context of the huge credit bubble
bursting . This amounts to crashing the operating system. For a while, resource constraints will be
relieved due to economic seizure (i.e. the collapse of both the money supply and the velocity of
money).
During the period of financial crisis, deflation and deleveraging, weak
That should feed into the third cycle, which should send prices sharply higher in real terms, if not to a new high in nominal terms. This
price volatility, against a backdrop of severe economic contraction, upheaval and fear is leading towards a profound societal change, most likely
You mention the tar sands, and they are indeed an interesting case - an arbitrage between cheap natural gas and expensive syncrude that can
continue while the price disparity is maintained. They are able to make money, even though they are not producing much net energy.
Unfortunately for the tar sands producers, the price disparity is set to reverse.
The hype surrounding shale gas has crashed the price to the point where it is on the verge of putting producers out of business. Natural gas in
North America appears to have bottomed, while the perception of glut in unconventional oil, combined with weak demand and a lack of
appropriate infrastructure for internal North American sources, is set to undermine oil prices considerably.
Tar sands projects will be under acute threat under those circumstances - not imminently, but over the next five years or so. Once one cannot
make money from some combination of artificial input/output price disparity, public subsidy and the ability to socialize externalties, then EROEI
becomes the defining factor, and the EROEI for tar sands is pathetic.
While I agree that oil men do not base decisions on EROEI, ultimately EROEI will determine their ability to make money, and that is their
driving motivation. Finance can only temporarily allow people to ignore thermodynamics.
EROEI effectively determines what is and is not an energy source for a given society (ie to maintain a given level of socioeconomic
complexity). Unconventional
fossil fuels are caught in a paradox - that their EROEI is too low for them
to sustain a society complex enough to produced them.
They can only be produced for the relatively short period of time that the complex society built on conventional sources continues to maintain its
current capacities, but as
the conventional sources disappear, and that society can no longer support itself, the ability to
undertake all the activities required for unconventional production will be lost . The hype has no
foundation.
We have been living in a major departure from reality in many ways, as always occurs during bubble
times, but those times are coming to an end. Instead of overshoot, we are headed for undershoot,
and we are not going to like it.
Note the critical paradox of unconventional supplies. That is where the cornucopian view of energy, where Monbiot now seems to have landed,
breaks down.
The same argument applies to renewable power as it is currently practiced. Without
What high Energy Return On Energy Investment makes possible, low EROEI will eventually take away,
following a brief boom that constitutes the last gasp of our modern energy bubble era.
The problem with a debt jubilee is that there would be many too many claimants for many of the world's assets. If a wind turbine owner's debt is
cancelled through a debt jubilee, who then "owns" the turbinethe original owner, or the lender whose debt was cancelled? If the debt of a
factory making replacement parts for a wind turbine is cancelled, who runs the factorythe original owner of the factory, or the investor whose
debt was cancelled?
The debts that are cancelled are likely to cross country borders, making for international disputes . Furthermore,
countries may want to retaliate for a loss of one of their overseas investments by grabbing a business
located in its own country that has overseas owners. In not very long, relationships among countries are likely
to sink to deteriorate, and international trade will be at much lower levels than in the past. War may even
break out,
"Demand"
or border disputes.
will be at new low levels, because there is likely to be very little cross-border trade, except
with a few trusted partners. Without this trade, it will not be possible to manufacture goods, other than those using only
local products. In this kind of scenario, prices (to the extent the monetary system continues to function) would continue to be very low, because
of the low demand. (A factory that is not operating doesn't need raw materials!)
The credit market would be close to non-existent , because creditors will expect that any debt that is
issued could easily be cancelled. New investment would be limited to what can be financed by cash flow. With low
prices, this cash flow would be very low, further limiting investment.
It is possible that in some parts of the world, the monetary system will cease to function all
become necessary. Because barter is so cumbersome, this is likely to have a further limiting impact on trade.
oil production would be significantly lower than the physical resource available. If
nothing else, it will be difficult for the whole chain from local production to pipeline to refinery to distribution pipeline
to consumer to function properly. Countries that previously exported oil overseas will see that their chances of
getting paid are less than 100%, and may reduce their production to match what they can sell through arrangements with trusted
In such a scenario, I would expect that
parties.
Production of many other goods may decline as well, as
governments would be replaced. Some countries may fall to pieces, in the manner of
the Soviet Union after its collapse in 1991. Governments may not have much faith in other governmentsexcept perhaps with a few
trusted trade /strategic partners. New monetary systems will likely be put in place, but many will not be any
better than the previous ones, so bubbles and further collapses may occur .
In such an environment, international
People will still need energy for heating their homes and for cooking. The initial impulse will be to cut down trees
for these purposes, but with the world's large population, this will tend to produce deforestation . Neoenvironmentalists may urge people to use other products for this purposesuch as coal or oil, if these can be obtained. There may be some local
electricity produced, particularly water generated, if transmission systems can be kept in good enough repair.
If this scenario happens, it
is difficult for me to see much of a future for large complex systems that require specialized parts
turbines to fall into disrepair in a few years, and solar PV panels to be
very difficult to obtain, after such a crash scenario. Smaller windmills, similar to what a person sees on old farms, may come
back into popular use, as may coal operated steam engines (at least in the US, where coal is still plentiful).
from around the world. Thus, I would expect large wind
If you have been following the interconnected threads of what is occurring in our system, you are aware that the above scenario
is at least a
possibility. Due to the complexities involved, it is impossible to estimate a percentage likelihood of this particular trajectory, but the
odds are increasing
5. We transform the debate about energy security. Tech not war will be seen as
the solution
Sovacool 07 Research Fellow for the Energy Governance Program @ National University of
Singapore [Benjamin K. Sovacool (Professor of International Affairs @ Virginia Tech University),
Solving the oil independence problem: Is it possible?, Energy Policy Volume 35, Issue 11, November
2007, Pages 5505-5514//ScienceDirect]
The point, however, is that achieving
oil independence for the US is possible, and foreign policy is not the only pathway.
The US can accomplish oil independence through robust and coordinated domestic energy policy. To insulate the
American economy from the vagaries of the world oil market, policymakers need not focus only on geopolitical power structures in oil
producing states. Instead, attempts to change the behavior of the country's automobile drivers, industrial
leaders, and homeowners could greatly minimize reliance on foreign supplies of oil . To battle the
oil problem policymakers need not talk only about sending more troops to Iraq or Saudi Arabia nor drafting new
contracts with Nigeria and Russia. They could also focus on curbing American demand for oil and expanding
domestic conventional and alternative supplies.
The debate over whether oil independence can be achieved for the US continues only because those making the
policy continue to believe it cannot be achieved. The key to implementing a strategy of oil
independence is more a matter of managing the interdependence of technologies available to reduce oil
demand and increase supply, rather than trying to establish the independence of the United States from foreign supplies of oil (Grumet, 2006).
Once such interdependence is recognized and synergistically pursued, the country can achieve oil
independence. The only remaining questions are how and whether the benefits outweigh the costs.
This collapse would be fast and more or less continuous without the restabilisations possible in Energy Descent.
It would inevitably involve a major die-off of human population and a loss of the knowledge and
infrastructure necessary for industrial civilization if not more severe scenarios including human
extinction along with much of the planets biodiversity.
(Smith et al., 2004). Similarly, hydrates are implicated as one of many possible factors for the Humboldt
slide off the coast of California, where decaying gas hydrate released methane gas in the bubble phase,
increasing the pore water pressure and decreasing the effective strength of the sediment, and thereby
reducing the stability of the slope (Field and Barber, 1993).
A developing interest in hydrate is to use carbon dioxide (CO2) hydrate as an aid to carbon sequestration
in the deep oceans (Lee et al., 2003). Carbon dioxide would be injected into the sediments and the
formation of CO2 hydrate would create a natural barrier to the release of carbon dioxide stored beneath
the hydrate (Lee et al., 2003). It will be necessary to develop long-term non-invasive monitoring
techniques of hydrate formation during ocean carbon sequestration. The economic and
environmental uses for hydrate, and the geohazards posed by it, all make mapping the extent and
distribution of hydrate important.
8. Burning hydrates better than release from the oceanemits less carbon than
fossil fuels
Dpke & Requate 14Lena-Katharina, and Till Requate, 2014, [The economics of exploiting gas
hydrates] Energy Economics, Volume 42, March 2014, Pages 355364
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988313002430
Due to slow response times of deep ocean temperatures to surface temperatures (1001000 years),
chronically from deeper ocean deposits. Accordingly, CH4 does not reach the atmosphere as methane but oxidizes in the ocean
to CO2 (Archer, 2007). Only in the case of catastrophic blowouts CH4 is capable of reaching the atmosphere. By contrast, methane hydrate
deposits on the shallow arctic shelf and hydrates widespread in the permafrost regions are more vulnerable to temperature change. Hence, in these
areas there have been observations of CH4 being released into the atmosphere. For this reason, (Max, 2003) propose cautious preventive
exploitation of dissolving methane hydrates to mitigate the escape of CH4 into the atmosphere and its impact on climate.
Currently, geoscientists and engineers all over the world are engaging in research activities geared
to extracting methane from gas hydrates in a cost-efficient way and avoiding too much methane
leakage during this process. This research interest is further motivated by the tremendous amounts of
CH4 stored in the hydrates and by its geographically widespread distribution. For example, Kvenvolden
(1988) estimates that there are 10,000 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon stored in methane hydrate deposits. This
corresponds to twice the amount of currently recoverable worldwide fossil fuels (Sloan and Koh, 2008) and
has been the most-widely cited consensus value over the last few decades. However, (Milkov, 2004) has updated the global estimate of
hydrate-bound gas to a value of ~ 5002500 Gt of methane carbon in a calculation that best reflects current knowledge on submarine gas
hydrates. Even
if only a small fraction of these energy resources was technically and economically
exploitable, methane from sea-floor gas hydrates could play an important role in the world's energy
mix, as already one promille of the estimated global methane hydrates inventory would cover current
annual global energy needs (Walsh et al., 2009).
In terms of the final product, gas extracted from gas hydrates is a close substitute for natural gas. One major
difference is that natural gas contains up to 20% other hydrocarbons and inert gases, while gas extracted from methane hydrates is almost pure
CH4, the chemically most stringently reduced form of carbon. Of all hydrocarbons, CH4
comparable offshore deposit of conventional natural gas. In the context of offshore extraction, the authors also mention another level of risks
which cannot yet be quantified (p.821), which we interpret as the geological risk associated with extraction of offshore hydrates.
Economically, the discovery of gas hydrates may be beneficial for the world economy, as a) it may
reduce the scarcity of fossil fuels, in particular of natural gas, and b) as a low-carbon source of energy it can
serve as a transition to zero-emission energies. Countries with access to sea-floor resources according to Art. 77(1)
UNCLOS, such as Norway, Russia, India, USA, China, Japan, New Zealand, Chile, and possibly others, will benefit from exporting methane, but
importers will also benefit from lower gas prices on the world market. On the other hand, the prospect has its drawbacks, since exploitation of gas
hydrates may give rise to two kinds of externalities. First, even preventive methane exploitation from gas hydrates contributes to global
warming in two different ways, a) by combustion and hence generation of CO2, and b) by methane leakage during the mining process. Second,
mining of the hydrates, i.e. removal of the cement, may also lead to the destabilization of continental margins, and this may increase the risk of
marine geohazards.
Advantage (_)Vents
1. Further modeling of sea floor key to vents research
GEOMAR 14Abbreviation for the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. [Hydrothermal
vents: How productive are the ore factories in the deep sea? Science Daily, 24 April 2014,
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/04/140424102605.htm] // AG
In general, it is well known that seawater penetrates into Earth's interior through cracks and crevices
along the plate boundaries. The seawater is heated by the magma; the hot water rises again, leaches
metals and other elements from the ground and is released as a black colored solution. "However, in
detail it is somewhat unclear whether the water enters the ocean floor in the immediate vicinity of
the vents and flows upward immediately, or whether it travels long distances underground before
venting," explains Dr. Jrg Hasenclever from GEOMAR.
This question is not only important for the fundamental understanding of processes on our planet.
It also has very practical implications. Some of the materials leached from the underground are
deposited on the seabed and form ore deposits that may be of economically interest . There is a
major debate, however, how large the resource potential of these deposits might be. "When we know
which paths the water travels underground, we can better estimate the quantities of materials
released by black smokers over thousands of years," says Hasenclever.
Hasenclever and his colleagues have used for the first time a high-resolution computer model of the
seafloor to simulate a six kilometer long and deep, and 16 kilometer wide section of a mid-ocean ridge in
the Pacific. Among the data used by the model was the heat distribution in the oceanic crust, which is
known from seismic studies. In addition, the model also considered the permeability of the rock and the
special physical properties of water.
The simulation required several weeks of computing time. The result: "There are actually two different
flow paths -- about half the water seeps in near the vents, where the ground is very warm. The other half
seeps in at greater distances and migrates for kilometers through the seafloor before exiting years later."
Thus, the current study partially confirmed results from a computer model, which were published in
2008 in the scientific journal Science. "However, the colleagues back then were able to simulate only
a much smaller region of the ocean floor and therefore identified only the short paths near the
black smokers," says Hasenclever.
The current study is based on fundamental work on the modeling of the seafloor , which was
conducted in the group of Professor Lars Rpke within the framework of the Kiel Cluster of Excellence
"The Future Ocean." It provides scientists worldwide with the basis for further investigations to see
how much ore is actually on and in the seabed, and whether or not deep-sea mining on a large scale
could ever become worthwhile. "So far, we only know the surface of the ore deposits at hydrothermal
vents. Nobody knows exactly how much metal is really deposited there. All the discussions about the
pros and cons of deep-sea ore mining are based on a very thin database," says co-author Prof. Dr.
Colin Devey from GEOMAR. "We need to collect a lot more data on hydrothermal systems before
we can make reliable statements."
has not lived up to the initial promise of delivering drug candidates, there has been a renaissance of
natural products as leads for drug discovery, particularly if novel sources/organisms can be uncovered.
The largely unexplored marine world that presumably harbors the most biodiversity may be the
vastest resource to discover novel validated structures with novel modes of action that cover
biologically relevant chemical space. Several challenges, including the supply problem and target
identification, need to be met for successful drug development of these oftentimes complex structures.
Can the hurdles associated with developing these molecules be overcome? The answer is yes, because
the first marine natural products have entered the drug market and several hopeful candidates are
already in advanced stages. Can the oceans provide a robust pipeline of marine drugs? Advances in
technologies such as sampling strategies, nanoscale NMR for structure determination, total
chemical synthesis, biosynthesis and genetic engineering are all crucial to the success of marine
natural products as drug leads. Whole-genome sequencing will become a routine method to predict
biosynthetic and drug potential. In our view, the high degree of innovation in the field of marine
natural products will lead to successful marine drug discovery and development (Figure 6), and
provides grounds for our optimism that marine natural products will form a new wave of drugs
that flow into the market and pharmacies in the future.
public remains an essential cornerstone to ensure an effective safeguard for tragedies such as bioweapons
attacks. Let us hope that we will not have to face such a challenge that is caused by the construction
of a deadly pathogenic microorganism developed for the sole purpose of killing humans.
Plan
The United States federal government should substantially increase its exploration
of the Earths oceans by mapping the ocean floor.
Solvency
1. Government key to MH exploration and development
Ruppel 11Ph.D. in Solid Earth geophysics from MIT, Chief of the USGS Gas Hydrates Project.
[Methane Hydrates and the Future of Natural Gas, Carolyn Ruppel, U.S. Geological Survey,
Supplementary Paper 4, accessed from Emory] // AG
Despite the relative immaturity of gas hydrates R&D compared to that for other unconventional
gas resources, the accomplishments of the past decade, summarized in detail by Collett et al. (2009),
have advanced gas hydrates along the path towards eventual commercial production. The U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE), as directed by the Methane Hydrates R&D Act of 2000 and the
subsequent Energy Act of 2005, has partnered with other government agencies, academe, and
industry in field, modeling, and laboratory programs that have produced numerous successes
(Doyle et al., 2004; Paull et al., 2010). These accomplishments have included the refinement of methods
for pre-drill estimation of hydrate saturations and safe completion of logging and coring programs in gas
hydrate-bearing sediments in both deepwater marine and permafrost environments. Within the next 4
years, US federal-industry partnerships are scheduled to oversee advanced logging and direct
sampling of resource-grade (high saturation) gas hydrates in sand deposits in the deepwater Gulf of
Mexico and completion of a long-term test of production methods on the Alaskan North Slope. In Japan,
the government-supported methane hydrates program (now called MH21; Tsuji et al., 2009) has also
relied on cooperation among the private, public, and academic sectors over past decade and plans to
conduct an initial production testing of resource-grade gas hydrates in the deepwater Nankai Trough in
2012. The current MH21 effort has grown out of earlier advanced borehole logging and deep coring in
1999-2000 (MITI) and in 2004 (METI), as described by Tsuji et al. (2004, 2009) and Fujii et al. (2009).
Canada has also worked with a consortium of partners to complete three major drilling programs in the
permafrost of the Mackenzie Delta (e.g., Dallimore et al., 1999; Dallimore and Collett, 2005; Dallimore et
al., 2008). Canada was the first country to ever produce small volumes of gas from hydrates during short
duration (up to a few days) production tests at these wells. Since 2005, India (e.g., Collett et al., 2008; M.
Lee and Collett, 2009; Yun et al., 2010), Korea (Park et al., 2008; Ryu et al., 2009), China (Zhang et al.,
2007; Wu et al., 2008), and private sector interests operating offshore Malaysia (Hadley et al., 2008) have
also launched major, successful deepwater hydrate drilling expeditions, and Korea drilled the Ulleung
Basin again in the second half of 2010 (S.R. Lee et al., 2011).
As befits costly exploration projects with uncertain short-term payoffs, the global effort to
investigate the potential of gas hydrates as a resource has often been carried out with significant
cooperation among countries, substantial support from governments, and major leadership from
both the government and academic research sectors. Even after more research, key challenges are
likely to remain in locating gas hydrates, assessing the size of the resource, developing viable
production strategies, and understanding the economics of eventual gas production from gas
hydrates within the context of natural gas supply as a whole.
Interior. Prior to working for USGS, McNutt was president and chief executive officer of the Monterey
Bay Aquarium Research Institute, an oceanographic research center in the United States, professor of
marine geophysics at the Stanford University School of Earth Sciences and professor of marine
geophysics at University of California, Santa Cruz; Accelerating Ocean Exploration, 8/30/13, Science,
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6149/937 \\NL]
As a first step, future exploration should make better use of autonomous platforms that are
equipped with a broader array of in situ sensors, for lower-cost data gathering. Fortunately, new,
more nimble, and easily deployed platforms are available, ranging from $200 kits for build-your-own
remotely operated vehicles to longrange autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), solar-powered
autonomous platforms, autonomous boats, AUVs that operate cooperatively in swarming behavior
through the use of artificial intelligence, and gliders that can cross entire oceans. New in situ
chemical and biological sensors allow the probing of ocean processes in real time in ways not
possible if samples are processed later in laboratories.
Exploration also would greatly benefit from improvements in telepresence. For expeditions that
require ships (very distant from shore and requiring the return of complex samples), experts on shore
can now join through satellite links, enlarging the pool of talent available to comment on the
importance of discoveries as they happen and to participate in real-time decisions that affect expedition
planning. This type of communication can enrich the critical human interactions that guide the
discovery process on such expeditions.
Topicality
DefOcean Exploration
Ocean exploration is establishing new lines of knowledge
Malik et al. 13 [Malik, M. A. NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research; Valette-Silver, N.
J. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research; Lobecker, E.; Skarke, A. D. - NOAA Office of
Ocean Exploration and Research; Elliott, K. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research;
McDonough, J. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, To Explore or to Research: Trends
in modern age ocean studies, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013, NASA Data System
\\accessed 6/14/14\\NL]
The recommendations of President's Panel Report on Ocean Exploration gave rise to NOAA's Office of Ocean Exploration in 2001, and helped establish NOAA as the lead agency for a federal
before a hypothesis can be established after an initial observation. This creates interesting challenges for ocean exploration because instant ';return on investment' can not be readily shown.
Strong media and public interest is garnered by far and apart exciting discoveries about new biological species or processes. However, most of the ocean exploration work goes to systematically
extract basic information about a previously unknown area. We refer to this activity as baseline characterization in providing information about an area which can support hypothesis generation
and further research to prove or disprove this hypothesis. Examples of such successful characterization include OER endeavors in the Gulf of Mexico that spanned over 10 years and it provided
characterization has been attempted by NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer from 2011 - 2013 field season in NE Atlantic canyon. This has been one of the first ever campaigns to systematically map
the NE canyons from US-Canada border to Cape Hatteras. After the 3D mapping of the canyons that included multibeam sonar derived bathymetry and backscatter, OER provided the first ever
comprehensive maps of the seafloor and water column which have become the basis for further exploration and research in this region. NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer currently remains the only
federal vessel dedicated solely to Ocean Exploration. Examples of some of the recent discoveries of the ship will be provided to explain as how Exploration and Research are merging together in
modern era of ocean sciences.
NOAA 13 [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - The National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration is a scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce
focused on the conditions of the oceans and the atmosphere, January 7th, 2013, What Is Ocean
Exploration and Why Is It Important?, http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/backmatter/whatisexploration.html
\\accessed 6/15/14\\NL]
Ocean exploration is about making new discoveries, searching for things that are unusual and unexpected. Although it
involves the search for things yet unknown, ocean exploration is disciplined and systematic. It includes rigorous
observations and documentation of biological, chemical, physical, geological, and archaeological
aspects of the ocean. Findings made through ocean exploration expand our fundamental scientific
knowledge and understanding, helping to lay the foundation for more detailed, hypothesis-based
scientific investigations.
Inherency
relevant federal agencies, states and regulated communities will be bound by the plans, which will
be used to make decisions on regional permitting activities.
of 2005. Other more optimistic analysts believe that peak may still be as much as thirty years in the future. Even that (I am not conceding that
projection. I am in the spring 2005 camp.) is close enough that the majority of people alive today will have to begin to adjust to declining global
oil production in their lifetime. Optimists point to the fact that we have moved beyond various energy sources, on which the entire society
depends, many times in the past. We have always found a new, better energy source to replace them. Even since the beginning of the industrial
revolution we have moved through water power, steam power, coal, natural gas, electricity, oil and nuclear. Oil, however, has been the most
important and workable energy source that we have ever discovered and exploited. Where
(also called clathrates) are bubbles of methane gas trapped in a cage of ice crystals. Methane hydrate deposits occur in locations all over the
world. The most concentrated deposits occur under the Arctic Ocean, under the ocean floor on most continental shelves, in locations like the Gulf
of Mexico, the Bermuda Triangle, the Dragon's Triangle south of Japan, and in permafrost surrounding the Arctic ocean. It is reliably estimated
that the amount of methane trapped as hydrates globally exceeds by many times the total combined oil, coal and natural gas reserves that have
ever existed on earth. A chunk of methane ice exposed to the air and ignited will burn until all of the methane in that ice has been consumed.
Methane hydrates, however, require specific conditions of temperature and pressure to keep them
contained within their ice cage. Reduce the pressure - for example, by reducing the sea level and the
pressure of water above the deposit - or increased the temperature and the methane hydrate
deposit becomes unstable and begins to release the trapped methane into the atmosphere. That is a
problem. Methane is a greenhouse gas. In fact, it is 21-23 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas
than carbon dioxide. When the methane trapped in the hydrate is released it expands by about 170 times.[1] Methane is lighter than
CO2, lighter than air. As a result it rises rapidly through the atmosphere up to the lower-density stratosphere. On the positive side methane
remains in the atmosphere for only about 10-20 years. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for over 100 years. Scientists studying global warming
have long been seriously concerned about the possibility of large scale methane hydrate destabilization and methane release into the atmosphere.
The greatest concern is about the large volumes of methane hydrates under the Arctic sea floor and that trapped in the vast permafrost zone
surrounding the Arctic Ocean. That concern has now been heightened by recent discoveries of hundreds of methane plumes on the floor of the
Arctic Ocean north of Norway and Siberia. [2] There is also evidence in pock-marked sea floors of large releases of methane plumes in the
geological past. [3] Paleoclimatologists now believe that large scale, natural methane hydrate releases have been partly but significantly
responsible for short-cycle global warming and global cooling cycles in the past. The recent discoveries in the Arctic, in fact, are thought to
suggest that methane releases have contributed to the global warming that has occurred since the last ice age 15,000 years ago. [2] The problem is
that these methane releases have a strong positive feedback loop. As they increase the warming of the atmosphere that warming in turn increases
methane release which in turn increases warming which in turn releases more...... You get the picture. Acceleration of global warming through
this positive feedback loop, by increased methane concentration in the atmosphere, far more than CO2 concentrations, represents, to
paleoclimatologists, a far greater risk of pushing us into the Venus effect, runaway global warming. When it comes to satisfying the world's
energy lust, however, caution may be thrown to the wind. Powering down human society is never an option put on the table when politicians and
other leaders discuss energy policies and strategies. We have proven over and over again that business as usual is the only model that will be
considered. How else can we explain the tar sands, oil shale development, deepwater oil extraction, coal mines extending out under the sea floor,
and more?
There are various technologies under consideration for extracting methane from hydrate
deposits. Most involve some form of heating the hydrate deposits - one, probably the dumbest and
most dangerous, even goes so far as to suggest using nuclear explosions beneath the deposit to heat
it, also suggested by some as a means of releasing oil from tar sands and oil shale - causing them to
release the methane which is then collected and piped to a processing facility of holding tank.
Proponents of methane hydrate exploitation, conscious of environmental concerns, are quick to offer reassurances like ".....tapping into the gas
hydrates assessed in the study is not expected to affect global warming, said Brenda Pierce, coordinator for the USGS Energy Resources
Program." [4] The louder and more frequent such reassurances are, of course, the more it suggests they are trying to cover up the probability that
the result will be the opposite. There
hydrates are not like the other fossil fuels. And our approach to exploiting them is
going to have to be very different. The risk to the climate and the environment is so much greater than has ever been the case with
other fossil fuels. Most importantly, methane hydrates are globally affected by exactly the same constrains; temperature and pressure. Global
warming itself - it doesn't matter whether it is naturally occurring or caused by human combustion of fossil fuels - is the greatest threat of tipping
methane releases into a runaway warming mechanism. Scientists do not know with any certainty yet how much of a global temperature rise is
necessary to reach the tipping point where methane hydrate release into the atmosphere accelerates out of control. They do know that once that
happens the acceleration will be self-sustaining and self-accelerating. If
these efforts are paying off, Carlton Carroll, a spokesman for the American Petroleum Institute, which
lobbies for oil and gas companies in Washington, wrote in an email. Given that producers are
voluntarily reducing methane emissions, additional regulations are not necessary. Fridays report is
one of a series of closely watched and sometimes hotly disputed studies on the environmental impacts of
natural gas production. Natural gas producers celebrated a September report published in The Proceedings
of the Natural Academies of Science that concluded that methane leaks from hydraulic fracturing sites
are, on average, at or lower than levels set by the E.P.A. However, that study also found that on some
fracking rigs, valves allow methane to escape at levels 30 percent higher than those set by E.P.A.
The authors of Fridays study say that despite the good news in that report, methane appears to be
leaking elsewhere in the natural gas supply, production and transportation chain. For example, the
authors said, methane could be leaking from facilities where natural gas is stored, compressed or
transported.
***Warming***
Natural gas could be a shorter term solution that could help bridge the gap between petroleum
powered and hydrogen powered automobiles as well as being a fuel for producing electricity and heat. Natural gas is
perhaps the quickest and relatively easiest fuel choice to bridge the United States from a nation
dependent upon oil exporting countries to a nation that produces its own energy. While natural gas is still a
fossil fuel and there is a finite supply, the United States has an abundant supply that could be used to reduce our dependency on foreign oil.
Natural gas can be found in several types of formations. Conventional deposits are usually gas fields or oil reservoirs that are typically found in
highly porous rocks like sandstone (Deutch, 2011). These types of gas deposits only require producers to tap into the formation and the natural
pressure of the gas will force it to the surface. Unconventional gas comes from a variety of forms. Tight gas refers to natural gas found in
relatively impermeable rock formations, which release gas slowly. Coal-bed methane is gas that has been absorbed into coal seams. Methane
hydrate is natural gas in a crystalline solid state that can be found on the ocean floor and in the arctic but is much more difficult to extract than the
other forms. The type of unconventional gas that has been surging in recent years is natural gas found between layers of shale formations, which
are made of fine-grained sedimentary rock. Once extracted unconventional natural gas is identical to conventional natural gas and can be
transported by pipelines or condensed into a liquid and exported internationally (Deutch, 2011). The technology used to extract shale gas is very
similar to that used to extract oil from shale, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing or fracking. The average cost of producing natural gas
from shale varies from region to region but tends to range between $2 and $3 per thousand cubic feet of gas, which is about one-half to one-third
the production cost associated with producing natural gas from North American conventional wells (Deutch, 2011). Due to the young technology
associated with recovering natural gas from shale plays, there are opportunities for reducing the extraction cost further with operating experience
and additional technical advancements. The largest shale plays across the United States are the Marcellus in New York and Pennsylvania, the
Barnett and Haynesville in Texas, and the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana (Kargbo, Wilhelm, Campbell, 2010). Technically recoverable,
usingtodays technology without considering economic constraints, natural gas reserves from shale is estimated to be in the 600 to 700 trillion
cubic feet range out of a total of 2,500 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable natural gas from all sources (Deutch, 2011).
The shift from oil to natural gas is a shift that could be made in a much shorter time frame than a
shift to renewable type energy sources. There is an economic incentive for using natural gas over oil
in the United States as oil is three times more costly than natural gas at about $12 per million Btu for
oil and $4 per million Btu for natural gas (Deutch, 2011). Natural gas has another added benefit over oil in being a
cleaner burning fuel. Natural gas releases 117,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per billion Btu of
energy input whereas oil emits 164,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per billion Btu of energy input
(NaturalGas.org, 2011). A nearly 29% carbon dioxide emission reduction is achieved just by switching fuel source
from oil to natural gas. This is just the reduction from burning these fuels. When the emissions from transportation are
factored in, natural gas is an even bigger winner in carbon dioxide emissions over oil. Natural gas emits fewer
other pollutants than oil as well, such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and mercury (NaturalGas.org,
2011). The challenge for natural gas to replace oil as the primary fuel for transportation is similar to challenges faced by other alternatives to oil,
the refueling infrastructure. This hurdle is easily overcome by fleet service vehicles that operate in a designated area and can be refueled
centrally. Many U.S. cities have begun converting buses and other city vehicle to run on compressed natural gas instead of diesel or gasoline due
to the lower cost and emission benefits received. The lack of refueling stations is a somewhat more difficult hurdle for the conversion of personal
vehicles from gasoline or diesel to compressed natural gas though not as difficult as it may seem at first look. Many homes have natural gas
service, and there are existing natural gas pipelines running under virtually every city. Though an economically viable solution has yet to be
discovered, the possibility of installing refueling stations in homes with natural gas service and at service stations alongside gasoline pumps, is
not out of the realm of possibility.
In order to reduce its dependence on foreign oil, the United States must not only replace some of the gasoline and diesel consumption but also
replace other products oil is used to make. Economic pressures could spur the development of new processes in the chemical sector to incorporate
natural gas instead of oil in the production of polymers, plastics, and other petrochemicals. This economic pressure would almost certainly come
with the wide scale transition of transportation fuel to natural gas from oil, reducing the demand for gasoline and diesel. This would reduce
overall demand for oil and create a shortage of oil for the chemical sector uses.
Electric power generation and industry is another area where natural gas has huge potential to
replace fuel oil as a peaking fuel. It reduces demand for another product produced from oil, and coal as a base load fuel, which
provides an opportunity to reduce fewer greenhouse gas emissions. According to the Energy Information Administrations Emission of
Greenhouse Gases report in December 2009, 81.3% of greenhouse gas emissions in the Unites States came from energy-related carbon dioxide.
Natural gas is the cleanest of all fossil fuels (NaturalGas.org, 2011). While natural
Methane hydrates are better than fossil fuels and makes way for a sustainable
switch to renewables
Rennie 11John, 2011 [Energy from Methane Hydrates: Better to Burn Out than Fade Away] POS
Blogs, Diverse Perspectives on Science and Medicine http://blogs.plos.org/retort/2011/06/01/energyfrom-methane-hydrates-better-to-burn-out-than-fade-away/
Expanded natural gas development is not ideal from a climate change perspective. Burning natural gas for energy is more appealing than using oil
or coal because it produces less CO2 and other particulatesbut on a rapidly growing global industrial scale, it still will contribute a lot. The
best result for the environment would be for natural gas to grow as a transitional energy source
while solar, wind and other green alternatives become still less expensive and more practical. (And
making that transition may be a challenge in itself once natural gas is still more entrenched.) Whether methane hydrates can or will play a part in
that strategy remains to be seen.
But methane hydrates are not just a resource. They remain, more darkly, one of the veiled menaces whose existence should urge action on the
climate. The deep hydrate formations that developers might tap seem reasonably secure against big unwanted releases of methanebut the more
shallow deposits on parts of the seafloor and under the Siberian and North American permafrosts are not. If
global temperatures
continue to rise, and if the oceans (which absorb most of the trapped greenhouse-effect heat) rise in temperature by a
few degrees Celsius, then those more exposed methane hydrates will begin to decompose on their
own. How much methane they could abruptly burp into the atmosphere is uncertain, and may depend on
the precise circumstances. But any additional atmospheric methane will be unwanted and could greatly accelerate greenhouse effects for a few
decades, further complicating any efforts to adapt to the new climate.
Maybe Neil Youngs lyric Its better to burn out than fade away captures the odd paradox of
methane hydrates best. Better to burn some of their methane in the short run, and suffer a CO2-driven
aggravation of greenhouse problems en route to a more sustainable energy solution , than to continue with the energy status
quo and wait for melting hydrates to worsen the climate problem for us.
2ACMapping K2 Warming
Exploration of MHs key to determine effects of global warmingUS key because of
the BOEM
Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization that
represents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,
aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.
[Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring
Program, Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 15-16,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-finalreport.pdf ] // AG
Methane hydrate resource assessments that indicate enormous global volumes of methane present
within hydrate accumulations have been one of the primary driving forces behind the growing
interest in methane hydrates (as reviewed by Boswell and Collett, 2011). For the most part, these
estimates range over several orders of magnitude, creating great uncertainty in the role methane
hydrates may play as an energy resource or as a factor in global climate change. In recent years,
field production tests combined with advanced numerical simulation have shown that hydrates in sand
reservoirs are the most feasible initial targets for energy recovery, thus bringing focus to the type of future
hydrate assessments to be conducted. It has also been shown that with regard to the climate
implications of methane hydrates, there is growing need to accurately assess what portion of the
global methane hydrate endowment is most prone to disturbance under future warming scenarios.
Generally, the reported global hydrate assessments include the assessment of a set of minimum source
rock criteria such as organic richness, sediment thickness, and thermal maturity as they apply to both
microbial and thermogenic gas sources. In several of the more recent assessments, the hydrate resource
volume estimates have also considered the nature of the sediments that host the hydrates. For example, in
2008, the Minerals Management Service (MMS), now known as Bureau of Ocean Energy
Management (BOEM), estimated that the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) contains about 190 trillion cubic
meters (~6,710 trillion cubic feet) of gas in highly concentrated hydrate accumulations within sand
reservoirs (Frye, 2008). Furthermore, the MMS assessment indicated that reservoirquality sands may be
more common in the shallow sediments of the methane hydrate stability zone than previously thought.
One of the most important emerging goals of methane hydrate research and development activities
is the identification and quantification of the amount of technically and economically recoverable
natural gas that might be stored within methane hydrate accumulations. A number of new
quantitative estimates of inplace methane hydrate volumes (Klauda and Sandler, 2005; Frye, 2008;
Wood and Jung, 2008; Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, 2012) and, for the first time, technical
recoverable (Collett et al., 2008; Fujii et al., 2008) assessments, have been undertaken using petroleum
systems concepts developed for conventional oil and natural gas exploration. For example, in an
assessment of methane hydrate resources on the North Slope of Alaska, Collett et al. (2008) indicated that
there are about 2.42 trillion cubic meters (~85.4 trillion cubic feet) of technically recoverable methane
resources within concentrated, sanddominated, methane hydrate accumulations in northern Alaska.
and Andrew Ridgwell, Philosophical Transaction Royal Society, Volume 368, 2010, pp 2369, DOI:
10.1098/rsta.2010.0065, accessed from Emory] // AG
Gas hydrates are ice-like deposits containing a mixture of water and gas; the most common gas is
methane. Gas hydrates are stable under high pressures and relatively low temperatures and are found
underneath the oceans and in permafrost regions. Estimates range from 500 to 10000 giga tonnes of
carbon (best current estimate 1600-2000 GtC) stored in ocean sediments and 400 GtC in Arctic
permafrost. Gas hydrates may pose a serious geohazard in the near future owing to the adverse
effects of global warming on the stability of gas hydrate deposits both in ocean sediments and in
permafrost. It is still unknown whether future ocean warming could lead to significant methane release,
as thermal penetration of marine sediments to the clathrate-gas interface could be slow enough to allow a
new equilibrium to occur without any gas escaping. Even if methane gas does escape, it is still unclear
how much of this could be oxidized in the overlying ocean. Models of the global inventory of hydrates
and trapped methane bubbles suggest that a global 3?C warming could release between 35 and 940
GtC, which could add up to an additional 0.5?C to global warming. The destabilization of gas hydrate
reserves in permafrost areas is more certain as climate models predict that high-latitude regions will be
disproportionately affected by global warming with temperature increases of over 12?C predicted for
much of North America and Northern Asia. Our current estimates of gas hydrate storage in the
Arctic region are, however, extremely poor and non-existent for Antarctica . The shrinking of both
the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in response to regional warming may also lead to
destabilization of gas hydrates. As ice sheets shrink, the weight removed allows the coastal region
and adjacent continental slope to rise through isostacy. This removal of hydrostatic pressure could
destabilize gas hydrates, leading to massive slope failure, and may increase the risk of tsunamis.
---Mapping K2 Warming
MH expedition key to predicting methane release from global warming
Bollmann et al 10Lead scientist for World Ocean Review. [Climate change impacts on methane
hydrates, Moritz Bollmann, World Ocean Review, 2010, http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/oceanchemistry/climate-change-and-methane-hydrates/] // AG
Various methods are employed to predict the future development. These include, in particular,
mathematic modelling. Computer models first calculate the hypo-thetical amount of methane
hydrates in the sea floor using background data (organic content, pressure, temperature). Then the
computer simulates the warming of the seawater, for instance, by 3 or 5 degrees Celsius per 100 years. In
this way it is possible to determine how the methane hydrate will behave in different regions.
Calculations of methane hydrate deposits can than be coupled with complex mathematical climate
and ocean models. With these computer models we get a broad idea of how strongly the methane
hydrates would break down under the various scenarios of temperature increase. Today it is assumed
that in the worst case, with a steady warming of the ocean of 3 degrees Celsius, around 85 per cent of the
methane trapped in the sea floor could be released into the water column.
Other, more sensitive models predict that methane hydrates at great water depths are not threatened by
warming. According to these models, only the methane hydrates that are located directly at the boundaries
of the stability zones would be primarily affected. At these locations, a temperature increase of only 1
degree -Celsius would be sufficient to release large amounts of methane from the hydrates. The
methane hydrates in the open ocean at around 500 metres of water depth, and deposits in the shallow
regions of the Arctic would mainly be affected.
In the course of the Earths warming, it is also expected that sea level will rise due to melting of the polar
ice caps and glacial ice. This inevitably results in greater pressure at the sea floor. The increase in
pressure, however, would not be sufficient to counteract the effect of increasing temperature to dissolve
the methane hydrates. According to the latest calculations, a sea-level rise of ten metres could slow down
the methane-hydrate dissolution caused by a warming of one degree Celsius only by a few decades.
A wide variety of mathematical models are used to predict the consequences of global warming.
The results of the simulations are likewise very variable. It is therefore difficult to precisely
evaluate the consequences of global warming for the gas hydrate deposits, not least of all because of
the large differences in the calculations of the size of the present-day gas hydrate deposits. One major
goal of the current gas hydrate research is to -optimize these models by using ever more precise input
parameters . In order to achieve this, further measurements, expeditions, drilling and analyses are
essential.
***Plan Solves***
***Impact***
Nobody is sure what caused the Permian extinction, but one theory is that it was methane burps.
And as long as I'm fear-mongering, there was also a better understood warming 55 million years ago,
known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM. That was a period when temperatures
shot up by 10 degrees Fahrenheit in the tropics and by about 15 degrees in polar areas, and many
scientists think it was caused by the melting of methane hydrates.
''The PETM event 55 million years ago is probably the most likely example of their impact, though there
are smaller events dotted through the record,'' says Gavin Schmidt, a NASA expert on climate change.
He emphasizes the uncertainties, but adds that since we are likely to enter a climate that hasn't been seen
for a few million years, it's reasonable to worry about methane hydrates.
scientists say volcanoes appear to have been the culprit, releasing "massive" amounts of CO2 and
methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Henderson says red-hot lava spewed across a region the size of Western
Europe at the end of the Permian, when there was just one land mass called Pangea and the
continents had not yet formed. He says the enormous lava flows would have ignited coal and other
combustibles, sending carbon dioxide wafting into the atmosphere and also may have melted frozen
gas hydrates and released huge stores of methane. "It then cascades into this series of disasters that
continue until most things are extinct," Henderson says.
He says the geological and fossil record point to several possible "kill mechanisms" as the disaster unfolded, including fires, acidification, as well
as loss of oxygen in the oceans, and perhaps even hypercapnia, which sees too much CO2 build up in the blood and can be lethal.
The research team, led by Shuzhong Shen at China's Nanjing Institute of Geology and Paleontology, has spent years combing through the
evidence preserved in sedimentary rocks and volcanic ash beds at several locations in China that formed as the extinction unfolded. The scientists
found the distinct signature of "widespread wildfires" and changes in the ocean chemistry that coincide with a spike in carbon 12, a form of
carbon common to volcanoes and gas hydrates.
They also looked at 1,450 species, from fish to ferns, that vanished during the extinction, which peaked 252.28 million years ago and took close
to 200,000 years to play out. Small eel-like creatures, called conodonts, helped the researchers piece together what transpired, says Henderson,
who visits China each year to collect and study fossils of the creature's tiny teeth. "We can use them as time clocks," says Henderson, who is also
charting the evolution and fate of conodonts in the Arctic and in Western Canada. He says the world's climate at the end of the Permian changed
dramatically. "It
went from basically like today, where you had hot tropics and cooler polar regions, to a
world in which everything was a tropics," he says.
of 3.8 d13Corganic within 10 kyr (Magaritz et al. 1983). This estimate of duration across the
Guadalupian-Lopingian boundary, like estimates presented here using comparable varve analysis,
is an order of magnitude shorter than U/Pb or wavelet estimates and constrains mechanisms for
global Late Permian carbon isotope excursions.
abrupt increases in methane concentrations have been coeval with most of the
interstadial warming events during the last 110 ka (Brook, Sowers, & Orchardo, 1996). However, it was concluded that
the magnitude of the methane increases was insufficient to account for the extent of atmospheric warming and that about 50 Tg of
methane per year (37 Mt of methane carbon) would have needed to be introduced into the atmosphere to
account for these temperature increases. This would require the dissociation of about 370 Mt of
methane hydrates. During the Storrega Slide off Norway, 1700 km3 (equivalent to about 106 Mt) of sediment slumped into the deep sea
The data show that
(Mienert, Posewang, & Baumann, 1998). The sediment would have needed to have contained the equivalent of 0.04% of methane hydrates to
generate this amount of methane.
In a detailed study of the abrupt climate change at the end of the Younger Dryas cold interval (11.6 ka), it was
confirmed that atmospheric warming coincided with a prominent rise in atmospheric methane
concentrations (Severinghaus, Sowers, Brook, Alley, & Bender, 1998). It was considered that the methane increase
began 030 years after the onset of warming (Severinghaus et al., 1998, Fig. 4) as a result of methane release from wetlands.
However, inspection of Severinghaus et al. (1998, Fig. 4) shows that the first high methane concentration coincided
exactly with the onset of the warming period. There was then a sharp drop in the methane
concentration followed by a slower rise to a plateau. It can therefore equally well be argued that this
first high methane concentration was the result of a massive instantaneous pulse of methane into
the atmosphere following massive sediment slumping on the continental slope. This would have led to a sharp increase in
the atmospheric temperature which would have persisted for less than 10 years. However, this temperature increase could have
been sufficient to lead to warming of the wetlands and a secondary input of methane into the
atmosphere from this source. The atmospheric warming is therefore considered to be a two stage process triggered by a massive release of
methane from methane hydrates as a result of sediment slumping.
2ACPipelines
Hydrates wreck sea pipelines
Hovland & Gudmestad 01Professor emeritus at the University of Bergen, and Professor of
Marine technology at the University of Stavanger. [Potential influences of gas hydrates on seabead
installations, Natural gas hydrates: occurrence, distribution, and detection (2001), pp 309-310] // AG
A warm pipeline on the sea bottom, or buried in sediments will warm the surroundings, and will
create a temperature gradient which eventually could cause in-situ gas hydrates to dissociate. The
released methane and water could cause sediment instability and slumping. Under such conditions
the pipeline could rupture if exposed to an excessive free span, or if the stresses in the buried pipeline
become excessive (Figs. 1 and 2). In order to avoid such scenarios, efficient pipeline insulation would be
required. In the case of sea floor instability a buried pipeline is more vulnerable to large stresses than a
pipeline lying directly on the sea floor. The installation of sea floor safety valves will reduce the potential
risk for large oil spills from sea floor pipelines.
Flowlines transporting hot fluids are also prone to upheaval buckling due to thermal expansion and failure
of the stability design (gravel or concrete mattress cover). Any in-situ near surface gas hydrates could
dissociate and render the seafloor "soupy", and thus cause loss of stability and initiate such
unwanted buckling.
chief of the USGS Gas Hydrates Project in Woods Holes, Mass., told LiveScience. Methane: microbial or
hydrate? Much of the Arctic's methane sits in permafrost buried under hundreds of meters of seafloor
sediments, Ruppel said. The deposits formed on exposed ground during the last Ice Age, when sea levels
were lower. The rising seas have been warming the deposits for millennia. Any added warming will have
to work down through the thick sediment cap. Much of the modeling predictions in the Nature
commentary were based on recent discoveries of rising methane plumes in the East Siberian Sea.
However, those plumes may be from methane hydrates or from microbes. "Methane release in the Arctic
from both marine and terrestrial sources is expected to increase with warming climate, as documented in
numerous papers," Ruppel said. "Much of the methane may actually be produced in the shallow
sediments by microbial processes and be completely unrelated to methane hydrates." However, there has
yet to be a detectable change in Arctic methane emissions in the atmosphere over the past two decades,
Ed Dlugokencky, a research scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Earth
System Research Laboratory, said in an email interview.
***Timeframe***
frozen arctic coastal plain, and does not release methane. As the Earth warms and sea level rises, it
is inundated with seawater, which is 12-15 degrees warmer than the average air temperature
"It was thought that seawater kept the East Siberian Arctic Shelf permafrost frozen," Shakhova
said. "Nobody considered this huge area."
"This study is a testament to sustained, careful observations and to international cooperation in research,"
said Henrietta Edmonds of the National Science Foundation, which partially funded the study. "The
Arctic is a difficult place to get to and to work in, but it is important that we do so in order to
understand its role in global climate and its response and contribution to ongoing environmental
change. It is important to understand the size of the reservoir--the amount of trapped methane that
potentially could be released--as well as the processes that have kept it "trapped" and those that
control the release. Work like this helps us to understand and document these processes."
Earlier studies in Siberia focused on methane escaping from thawing terrestrial permafrost. Semiletov's
work during the 1990s showed, among other things, that the amount of methane being emitted from
terrestrial sources decreased at higher latitudes. But those studies stopped at the coast. Starting in the fall
of 2003, Shakhova, Semiletov and the rest of their team took the studies offshore. From 2003 through
2008, they took annual research cruises throughout the shelf and sampled seawater at various depths and
the air 10 meters above the ocean. In September 2006, they flew a helicopter over the same area, taking
air samples at up to 2,000 meters (6,562 feet) in the atmosphere. In April 2007, they conducted a winter
expedition on the sea ice.
They found that more than 80 percent of the deep water and more than 50 percent of surface water
had methane levels more than eight times that of normal seawater. In some areas, the saturation
levels reached more than 250 times that of background levels in the summer and 1,400 times higher
in the winter. They found corresponding results in the air directly above the ocean surface.
Methane levels were elevated overall and the seascape was dotted with more than 100 hotspots.
This, combined with winter expedition results that found methane gas trapped under and in the sea ice,
showed the team that the methane was not only being dissolved in the water, it was bubbling out into
the atmosphere.
These findings were further confirmed when Shakhova and her colleagues sampled methane levels at
higher elevations. Methane levels throughout the Arctic are usually 8 to 10 percent higher than the
global baseline. When they flew over the shelf, they found methane at levels another 5 to 10 percent
higher than the already elevated Arctic levels.
The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is more of a
concern because it is so shallow. In deep water, methane gas oxidizes into carbon dioxide before it
reaches the surface. In the shallows of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, methane simply doesn't have
enough time to oxidize, which means more of it escapes into the atmosphere. That, combined with
the sheer amount of methane in the region, could add a previously uncalculated variable to climate
models.
"The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow
hydrate deposits might alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to 3 to 4 times,"
Shakhova said. "The climatic consequences of this are hard to predict."
***Alt Causes***
2ACMapping K2 Energy
BSR fails, we need new mapping of MHssolves biggest challenge to hydrate
development
Ruppel 11Ph.D. in Solid Earth geophysics from MIT, Chief of the USGS Gas Hydrates Project.
[Methane Hydrates and the Future of Natural Gas, Carolyn Ruppel, U.S. Geological Survey,
Supplementary Paper 4, accessed from Emory] // AG
Locating High-Saturation Gas Hydrates
One of the biggest challenges for development of gas hydrates as a resource is the difficulty of
finding the deposits. This challenge is exacerbated by the lack of exhaustive laboratory and field
data that can be used to calibrate geophysical parameters as a function of the saturation of gas
hydrates in porous sediments.
For many years, marine gas hydrates were believed to occur only where exploration seismic data
detect a so-called bottom simulating reflector (BSR; see Figure 1a), which marks the base of the gas
hydrate stability zone in some places. This reflector generally indicates that overlying sediments host
some gas hydrate, although often at a saturation of less than 10%. Gas hydrates have now been sampled
in many places lacking a BSR, rendering the presence of a BSR a sufficient, but not necessary, one
for gas hydrate occurrence. In permafrost areas, the difficulty of using reconnaissance seismic imaging
to locate gas hydrates is even more acute since BSRtype features have never been observed.
A step beyond direct detection of the base of the gas hydrate stability zone is inferring gas hydrate
distributions and concentrations based on analysis of seismic data. Occasionally, it is possible to detect
gas hydrates directly based on velocity anomalies in sediments containing high hydrate saturations (e.g.,
Holbrook et al., 2002). More often, sophisticated analyses are required. On the Japanese margin, the
Indian margin, and the Alaskan North Slope, attribute analysis of 3D seismic data, coupled with
information from borehole logs, has been used to delineate the extent of hydrate deposits (Hato et
al., 2006; Satyavani et al., 2008; Inks et al., 2009; M. Lee et al., 2009). A full waveform inversion method
that can be readily applied to industry-quality marine seismic data, calibrated with available borehole
logs, and interpreted in terms of gas hydrate saturation by the application of rock physics models has been
used to predict the occurrence and saturation of hydrate in disparate geologic settings in the northern Gulf
of Mexico (Dai et al., 2008a, 2008b; Shelander et al., 2010).
Community Workshop contributed greatly to defining the specific scientific and technical challenges
that must be addressed to advance our understanding of methane hydrates in nature and their
potential role as an energy resource, a geohazard, and as an agent of global climate change. The
following are both general and specific project planning recommendations from the Science Plan
concerning the most important methane hydrate research challenges and opportunities, with a focus on
how scientific drilling can advance our understanding of the geologic controls on the formation,
occurrence, and stability of gas hydrates in nature.
Drilling Programs
The top priorities for dedicated scientific drilling are: (1) an expedition designed to further our
understanding of the highly concentrated sandrich methane hydrate reservoirs in the Gulf of
Mexico and (2) a drilling program designed to characterize the methane hydrate systems along the
Atlantic margin of the United States. The main goal of the proposed Gulf of Mexico expedition would
be coring (mostly pressure coring) and formation testing of the hydratebearing sand reservoirs
discovered during JIP Leg II at the GC955 and WR313 sites. Scientific drilling along the U.S. Atlantic
margin primarily would collect fully integrated and comprehensive cores, downhole logs, and seismic
data needed to assess the geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrate. It is also critical that the pre
drill site review and planning effort are rigorous and make use of all of the available data from the area of
interest and from other successful site review efforts.
Wells of Opportunity
Establish a highlevel international committee to monitor and identify cooperative research and specific
scientific drilling opportunities to advance our understanding of methane hydrates in nature. This
committee would work with organizations such as the International Ocean Discovery Program,
nationalled methane hydrate research and development programs, oil and gas companies involved
in deepwater exploration and development, and governmental regulatory agencies to develop cooperative
data collection efforts. It is also important for the committee leading this effort to have the technical
capability and financial support required to develop and support the methane hydrate research component
of these cooperative opportunities.
Required Drilling and Measurement Technology Developments
Review and update technology and operational requirements for each drilling expedition. As methane
hydrate research and development activities move into deeper waters and more complex geologic settings,
new and emerging technologies and operational procedures need to be incorporated. For example, the
continuous use of drilling muds below certain critical depths during the GOM JIP Leg II permitted the
safe and efficient drilling of what was at that time abnormally deep holes. Concepts like the use of
riser systems or special mud recovery systems also need to be considered.
Include wireline logging and logging while drilling in all future methane hydrate expeditions.
Additional research is needed on the acquisition and use of the logging while drilling acoustic log
data, with a particular focus on obtaining highquality shear wave velocity data. Nuclear magnetic
resonance logging and wireline formation testing have made important contributions to our understanding
of methane hydrate reservoir properties in Arctic permafrost environments; however, the use of these
tools in marine environments have been limited because they cannot be deployed through drill pipe
commonly used in riserless scientific drilling. Procedures that would allow the use of the more complex
downhole logging systems need to be developed.
Further develop geotechnical tools, such as cone penetrometers and thermal conductivity probes,
along with downhole scientific tools such as formation temperature probes, pressure measurement
systems, and pore water samplers, and apply them to methane hydrate related research issues.
Other downhole measurement tools, most often used for industrial site surveys in support facilities and
foundation designs, could contribute directly to the analysis and quantification of methane hydrate related
geohazards.
Develop and deploy sensors and devices specifically designed to monitor methane systems. Another
area where downhole measurements require greater consideration is the use of borehole
instrumentation and observatories. We have seen only a limited number of borehole monitoring
systems designed to provide some information on dynamic processes associate with the occurrence of
methane hydrate.
Continue to test and develop the HybridPCS, and strongly encourage its use in the field. Specifically
developed pressure coring and associated laboratory equipment have contributed greatly to our
understanding of methane hydrate occurrence and physical properties of hydrates. The HybridPCS
has recently shown a great deal of promise. When possible, the HybridPCS should be made available to
both domestic and international methane hydrate research expeditions. It is also important to see the
continued develop of the laboratory systems required to analyze recovered pressure cores. The use of
systems such as the HYACINTH Pressure Core Analysis and Transfer System (PCATS) and Georgia
Institute of Technology Pressure Core Characterization Tool (PCCT) are essential to the success of any
future pressure coring program.
of 2005. Other more optimistic analysts believe that peak may still be as much as thirty years in the future. Even that (I am not conceding that
projection. I am in the spring 2005 camp.) is close enough that the majority of people alive today will have to begin to adjust to declining global
oil production in their lifetime. Optimists point to the fact that we have moved beyond various energy sources, on which the entire society
depends, many times in the past. We have always found a new, better energy source to replace them. Even since the beginning of the industrial
revolution we have moved through water power, steam power, coal, natural gas, electricity, oil and nuclear. Oil, however, has been the most
important and workable energy source that we have ever discovered and exploited. Where
(also called clathrates) are bubbles of methane gas trapped in a cage of ice crystals. Methane hydrate deposits occur in locations all over the
world. The most concentrated deposits occur under the Arctic Ocean, under the ocean floor on most continental shelves, in locations like the Gulf
of Mexico, the Bermuda Triangle, the Dragon's Triangle south of Japan, and in permafrost surrounding the Arctic ocean. It is reliably estimated
that the amount of methane trapped as hydrates globally exceeds by many times the total combined oil, coal and natural gas reserves that have
ever existed on earth. A chunk of methane ice exposed to the air and ignited will burn until all of the methane in that ice has been consumed.
Methane hydrates, however, require specific conditions of temperature and pressure to keep them
contained within their ice cage. Reduce the pressure - for example, by reducing the sea level and the
pressure of water above the deposit - or increased the temperature and the methane hydrate
deposit becomes unstable and begins to release the trapped methane into the atmosphere. That is a
problem. Methane is a greenhouse gas. In fact, it is 21-23 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas
than carbon dioxide. When the methane trapped in the hydrate is released it expands by about 170 times.[1] Methane is lighter than
CO2, lighter than air. As a result it rises rapidly through the atmosphere up to the lower-density stratosphere. On the positive side methane
remains in the atmosphere for only about 10-20 years. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for over 100 years. Scientists studying global warming
have long been seriously concerned about the possibility of large scale methane hydrate destabilization and methane release into the atmosphere.
The greatest concern is about the large volumes of methane hydrates under the Arctic sea floor and that trapped in the vast permafrost zone
surrounding the Arctic Ocean. That concern has now been heightened by recent discoveries of hundreds of methane plumes on the floor of the
Arctic Ocean north of Norway and Siberia. [2] There is also evidence in pock-marked sea floors of large releases of methane plumes in the
geological past. [3] Paleoclimatologists now believe that large scale, natural methane hydrate releases have been partly but significantly
responsible for short-cycle global warming and global cooling cycles in the past. The recent discoveries in the Arctic, in fact, are thought to
suggest that methane releases have contributed to the global warming that has occurred since the last ice age 15,000 years ago. [2] The problem is
that these methane releases have a strong positive feedback loop. As they increase the warming of the atmosphere that warming in turn increases
methane release which in turn increases warming which in turn releases more...... You get the picture. Acceleration of global warming through
this positive feedback loop, by increased methane concentration in the atmosphere, far more than CO2 concentrations, represents, to
paleoclimatologists, a far greater risk of pushing us into the Venus effect, runaway global warming. When it comes to satisfying the world's
energy lust, however, caution may be thrown to the wind. Powering down human society is never an option put on the table when politicians and
other leaders discuss energy policies and strategies. We have proven over and over again that business as usual is the only model that will be
considered. How else can we explain the tar sands, oil shale development, deepwater oil extraction, coal mines extending out under the sea floor,
and more?
There are various technologies under consideration for extracting methane from hydrate
deposits. Most involve some form of heating the hydrate deposits - one, probably the dumbest and
most dangerous, even goes so far as to suggest using nuclear explosions beneath the deposit to heat
it, also suggested by some as a means of releasing oil from tar sands and oil shale - causing them to
release the methane which is then collected and piped to a processing facility of holding tank.
Proponents of methane hydrate exploitation, conscious of environmental concerns, are quick to offer reassurances like ".....tapping into the gas
hydrates assessed in the study is not expected to affect global warming, said Brenda Pierce, coordinator for the USGS Energy Resources
Program." [4] The louder and more frequent such reassurances are, of course, the more it suggests they are trying to cover up the probability that
the result will be the opposite. There
hydrates are not like the other fossil fuels. And our approach to exploiting them is
going to have to be very different. The risk to the climate and the environment is so much greater than has ever been the case with
other fossil fuels. Most importantly, methane hydrates are globally affected by exactly the same constrains; temperature and pressure. Global
warming itself - it doesn't matter whether it is naturally occurring or caused by human combustion of fossil fuels - is the greatest threat of tipping
methane releases into a runaway warming mechanism. Scientists do not know with any certainty yet how much of a global temperature rise is
necessary to reach the tipping point where methane hydrate release into the atmosphere accelerates out of control. They do know that once that
happens the acceleration will be self-sustaining and self-accelerating. If
---Mapping K2 Energy
Locating MHs key to determining what to do about them
Maslin et al 10Department of Geography at the University of Bristol. [Review Gas hydrates: past
and future geohazard? Mark Maslin, Matthew Owen, Richard Betts, Simon Day, Tom Dunkley Jones,
and Andrew Ridgwell, Philosophical Transaction Royal Society, Volume 368, 2010, pp 2387-2388, DOI:
10.1098/rsta.2010.0065, accessed from Emory] // AG
9. Conclusions
At the moment, it is difficult to assess the potential future geohazard represented by gas hydrates
owing to a lack of knowledge. For example, we are unsure how much methane is stored in and below
gas hydrates. For ocean sediments, estimates range from 500 to lOOOOGtC (best estimate 1600-2000
GtC) stored, while our current estimates of gas hydrate storage in the Arctic region are very poor
(approx. 400 GtC) and non-existent for Antarctica. We do not know whether increased future
temperatures could lead to significant methane release from ocean sediments, as thermal penetration
of marine sediments to the clathrate-gas interface could be slow enough to allow a new equilibrium to
occur without any gas escaping. Even if methane gas does escape, it is still unclear how much of this
could be oxidized in the overlying ocean. Our best estimate by Archer et al (2009), using state-of-the-art
modelling, has a huge potential range from 35 to 940 GtC. The destabilized gas hydrate reserves in
permafrost areas seem more certain as climate models predict that high-latitude regions will be
disproportionately affected by global warming with temperature increases of up to 12?C predicted for
much of North America and Northern Asia. There is already new evidence of significant methane release
from subsea permafrost on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Shakhova et al. 2010). But our current
estimates of gas hydrate storage in the Arctic region are very poor and non-existent for Antarctica.
Hence, more research is required to (i) quantify the amount of methane stored in and below gas
hydrate deposits and (ii) increase our understanding of the possible limits of stability of these
deposits, before we can successfully evaluate the future risk they pose to both the local and global
environment.
there is growing need to accurately assess what portion of the global methane hydrate endowment
is most prone to disturbance under future warming scenarios.
good example of a grassroot effort being led by key methane hydrate research laboratories throughout
the world, and is the type of effort that needs to be supported and duplicated to deal with other
fundamental methane hydrate research problems.
Information and Technology Transfer
Make use of all available communication channels to disseminate wellvetted data and information
on the role that methane hydrates may play as an energy resource, geohazard, or agent of global
climate change. To effectively deal with the outstanding methane hydrate science and technical
challenges, the public must be accurately and honestly informed of the potential benefits and
impacts associated methane hydrate research. There is a need to standardize the use of common
hydrate related research terms and concepts. It is also important to identify the issues and factors that
influence the perception of methane hydrate research into the future.
Monitor the methane hydrate scientific community and deal effectively with misinformation
through the peer review process and the judicious use of published reviews and rebuttals.
concerns about
climate change are being addressed, considering that methane is a greenhouse gas," says Lorie
Langley, leader of ORNL's Natural Gas Infrastructure, Methane Hydrates, and Carbon Dioxide
Sequestration programs. "Methane can be used as an inexpensive source of hydrogen, a carbonfree fuel that could help slow climate change, providing that methods are developed to sequester the
carbon dioxide that results from hydrogen production." Among the questions the DOE program will address are these: How much
natural gas actually is present in the world's methane hydrates? (Estimates range as high as
700,000 trillion cubic feet, many times the estimated total of worldwide conventional resources of
natural gas and oil.) Are the hydrates stable enough to sequester carbon dioxide injected into them? Which production methods could safely harvest methane from the
proposing projects for DOE funding. "The driver of DOE's gas hydrates program is the need for a new, abundant source of relatively clean energy, yet
hydrates? What are the risks of recovering methane from ocean hydrates? Could the release of methane make the sediments unstable enough to cause the collapse of seafloor foundations for
conventional oil and gas drilling rigs? Could the melting, or dissociation, of methane hydrate ice lead to releases of large volumes of methane to the atmosphere, raising greenhouse gas levels and
~4C and pressurized between 50 and 100 atmospheres to form methane hydrates. Methane hydrate samples are produced for analysis by instruments at numerous ports around the vessel, and
their formation is captured by a video camera. "Because of the size of our vessel, we have found a way to make methane hydrates easily and predictably," Phelps says. "Our large pressure vessel
is also more suitable for research on the interactions between heterogeneous sediments and hydrates during their formation and dissociation. We can mimic actual heterogeneous conditions such
as ocean water and sediments mixed with microorganisms, organic matter, carbonate particles, sand, silt, clay, and sulfides. Our data will be used to test and verify computer models of
heterogeneous hydrate formation." The dissociation of methane hydrates is a major concern for oil companies, Phelps says, noting that five oil firms have expressed interest in conducting
research at SPS. "When the temperature rises or the pressure drops, one cubic foot of methane hydrate ice can release 160 cubic feet of gas," he explains. "Forces from methane hydrate
dissociation have been blamed for a damaging shift in a drilling rig's foundation, causing a loss of $100 million. Oil and gas drilling companies are more interested in protecting their drilling
equipment than harvesting the hydrates as an energy resource, at least for the next 10 years." At the SPS, hydrates could be grown in intact sediment cores filled with particles of controlled size to
determine the effects of decomposing hydrates on sediment structure. Experiments at the SPS might also help determine which conditions could lead to a "burp" of methane from ocean hydrates
that might enter the atmosphere and cause climate change. Some evidence suggests that a catastrophic release of frozen methane from the ocean 55 million years ago was responsible for an
abrupt warming of the earth. As a result, ocean temperatures rose by 7 to 14 degrees over 1000 years, causing the die-off of more than half of some deep-sea species. "Eventually, we could do
dynamic production simulations at the SPS," Phelps says. "We may test ideas for harvesting methane hydrates, such as depressurization, stimulating them with sound waves to melt them gently,
or injecting solvents to extract the methane into gas recovery wells." What other research is being done at ORNL on methane hydrates? In 1999, Bill Doll, an ESD geophysicist, in collaboration
with scientists from Kansas and Canada, used high-resolution seismic reflection methods developed for solving environmental problems to obtain very sharp images of hydrate-bearing zones
1000 m deep and of an overlying permafrost zone. The work was conducted in Canada's MacKenzie Delta, along the Arctic Ocean.
"We are developing tools to precisely locate methane hydrate layers, assess whether the hydrate is
distributed uniformly or in pockets within the sediments, and ultimately determine how much
methane is there," Doll says. "Our high-resolution measurements have impressed oil exploration companies." In a
collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), David Reister and N. S. V. Rao, both of
ORNL's Computer Science and Mathematics Division, have been developing an improved method
to determine how much methane is present in gas hydrates on the ocean floor. "Hydrates occupy pores of
rocks," Reister says. "To determine how much methane is present in the ocean, we must accurately estimate porosity and hydrate concentration in
the pores for all ocean sediments." They are developing mathematical models based on rock physics to predict the locations and concentrations of
methane hydrates in oceans and Arctic permafrost in the MacKenzie Delta. They use well log data obtained by oil and gas drilling companies,
which provide a variety of measurements, including density, velocity, and electrical resistivity of sediments and the contents of their pores. Peter
T. Cummings, an ORNL-University of Tennessee (UT) Distinguished Scientist, Ariel A. Chialvo, an ORNL-UT collaborating scientist, and
Mohammed Houssa of UT are using sophisticated models of methane, carbon dioxide, and water to better understand methane hydrates. "We are
doing molecular simulations of methane hydrates at different temperatures, such as 270 K and 170 K," says Cummings. "Methane doesn't like
water, so it pushes the surrounding water molecules away in clathrates, forcing them into a structure that is more stable than the normal
arrangement of water molecules." The scientists' goal is to predict the stability of methane hydrates in the real environment. Methane hydrates are
trapped in pores of sandstone sediments that are contaminated with bacteria, algae, sand, and ions from saltwater. "We will eventually simulate
the effects of impurities on the stability of methane hydrates," Cummings says. "Our models may show that confinement in pores enhances
methane hydrate stability." Claudia Rawn of the Metals and Ceramics Division, Bryan Chakoumakos of the Solid State Division, and Simon
Marshall of ESD are interested in using neutrons to measure the effects of temperature and pressure changes on methane hydrate stability. "We
measured the expansion of a unit cell of a USGS methane hydrate sample as temperature rises," Rawn says. They hope to determine the effects of
different gases on hydrate stability and compare the movements of water molecules and the strengths of hydrogen bonds in hydrates and normal
ice. The
DOE National Methane Hydrate Program Plan has four research goals: resource
characterization, production technology, global climate change, and safety and seafloor stability.
"ORNL has the opportunity and capability to contribute to all of these goals," says Langley.
2ACMH Energy
MH development creates new energy potential
Seol & Boswell 10Scientist for the Department of Energy // PhD in Geology from West Virginia
University and Technology Manger for Methane Hydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory
for the DOE. [Methane Hydrate, Fire in the Ice: Energy Potential and Environmental Implications,
Yongkoo Seol and Ray Boswell, 23 July 2010, http://www.laboratoryjournal.com/science/umwelt/methane-hydrate-fire-ice?page=1] // AG
Conclusion
The primary challenges of developing gas hydrate reservoirs include creating reliable and effective
exploration and production technologies, assessing economically recoverable resources, and
understanding the role of gas hydrate in global climate change. Collaborative efforts to overcome
these technical challenges should be continued to determine methane hydrate's potential as an
environmentally safe and economically viable energy source.
combustion, the potential for securing significant domestic supplies, and the compatibility with
existing infrastructure indicate that natural gas can be a cornerstone of an environmentally and economically sound
domestic energy portfolio.
Accumulations of methane hydrate, a solid form of natural gas, may represent an enormous
source of methane. Methane hydrate occurs in sediments within and below thick permafrost in
Arctic regions and in the subsurface of most continental margins where water depths are greater
than about 1,500 feet (about 500 meters) (Figure 1.1; Box 1.1). Although the estimated total global volume
of methane in methane hydrate is still debated, generally acknowledged estimates yield figures
between 2 and 10 times greater than those of technically recoverable conventional natural gas
resources (see Chapter 2). The existence of such a large and as-yet untapped methane hydrate resource
has provided a strong global research incentive to determine how methane from methane hydrate
might be produced as a technically safe, environmentally compatible, and economically competitive
energy resource (e.g., Council of Canadian Academies, 2008).
Its cheap
Ruppel 11Carolyn Ruppel 2011 [MITEI Natural Gas Report, Supplementary Paper on Methane
Hydrates] U.S. Geological Survey, Woods Hole, MA
https://mitei.mit.edu/system/files/Supplementary_Paper_SP_2_4_Hydrates.pdf
Without data from a long-term production test like the one that DOE plans to undertake with private sector partners within the next few years, the
economics of gas production from gas hydrate deposits has been difficult to analyze. Until recently, the studies by Howe (2004) and Hancock et
al. (2004) were among the few economic analyses to have been completed for gas hydrate production. A recent study by Walsh et al. (2009) now
stands as the most exhaustive analysis of the economics of gas production from gas hydrates and (in some cases) associated free gas to become
available in the public domain. Building on the earlier work by Hancock et al. (2004) and unpublished research by Hancock, the Walsh et al.
(2009) study uses CMG-STARS for reservoir simulation of permafrost-associated gas hydrate production and Que$tor for determining costs.
They report that the price of gas would have to reach $7.50 Canadian (2005 dollars) per Mcf for
production from permafrost-associated gas hydrates overlying producible free gas to be
economically viable. This estimate and others that follow include pipeline tariffs, but not local taxes and tariffs. If there is no underlying
free gas that can be produced during the life of the well, then the gas price would have to reach $12 Canadian (2005 dollars) per Mcf for
production from hydrates to become viable.
To assess the production characteristics and economics of marine gas hydrates, Walsh et al. (2009) used the TOUGH+HYDRATE reservoir
simulation (Moridis et al., 2008b) results published by Moridis and Reagan (2007) and Quester for
cost analyses in
comparing production from gas hydrates to that from a conventional gas reservoir. The costs
estimates include a pipeline, production facility, and subsea development for both conventional and
gas hydrate production and the extra costs (e.g., additional wells, artificial lift to manage water
production) associated with gas production from hydrate. At the 50% confidence level, the additional cost
associated with production from deepwater gas hydrates vs. conventional gas deposits is $3.50 to
$4.00 (U.S. dollars) per Mcf.
2ACCredit Crunch
Oil is the bottleneck Supply shortage will trigger a massive credit crunch
Tverberg 12 Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society & Member of the American Academy of Actuaries [Gail E. Tverberg (MS in
Mathematics from the University of Illinois) , Oil supply limits and the continuing financial crisis, Energy, Volume 37, Issue 1, January 2012,
pg. 27-34
Furthermore, we consider the possibility that if world oil
increasing oil supply tends to give rise to economic growth and to conditions that foster the
expansion of credit. Economic growth tends to be associated with many other favorable outcomes, including
rising home prices, rising stock market prices, and adequate supply of capital. These outcomes play a
crucial role in enhancing the positive effects that credit has on the functioning of modern
economies. Decreasing oil supply tends to have an opposite effect, leading to economic stagnation or decline
and credit restriction, and unfavorable follow-on outcomes, including falling home prices, declining stock market
prices, and inadequate supply of capital.
We show that
the common belief that oil prices will rise to a very high level in the face of inadequate supply appears to be untrue. Instead, our
research
shows that the limiting factor with respect to oil supply is likely to be inadequate demand for high-priced oil. Oil prices are likely
to rise to a point where they cause recession and credit contraction, and then decline. After at time, they may rise
again with economic recovery, only to fall again when they reach the point when the high prices lead to recession. At times, there may
appear to be a glut of oil on the market. Oil prices may never reach a high enough level to stimulate
extraction from sources that require very expensive extraction techniques or to encourage widespread use of
renewable sources of energy. Pg. 27-28
Credit contraction risks global collapse Oil competition makes the decline selfreinforcing
Tverberg 12 Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society & Member of the American Academy of Actuaries [Gail E. Tverberg (MS in
Mathematics from the University of Illinois) , Oil supply limits and the continuing financial crisis, Energy, Volume 37, Issue 1, January 2012,
pg. 27-34
Scenario 3. There is a possibility that world oil production will remain flat, or decline. In this scenario,
indications are that the All Other countries will continue to outbid OECD for oil supplies, and OECDs oil use will continue to decline.
debt defaults are likely outcomes. Lower credit availability and lower demand can be expected to
reduce demand for natural gas, coal, and alternative fuels, as it did during the 2008-2009 recession, making the
Recession and
impacts greater than the oil shortage by itself might suggest. This reduction in demand is expected to reflect a shortfall of demand for high priced
energy products (analogous to the lack of demand for high priced oil). Unless low-priced energy substitutes can be found, it is not clear that there
is a cure for this lack of demand.
8. Conclusion - While we cannot know what the future will bring, the evidence would seem to suggest that we are reaching limits on the amount
of oil that the world can extract at a price OECD countries can afford to pay without causing serious recession. While there is a theoretical
possibility that some
way can be found around this roadblock, perhaps through innovation that brings down the price of
oil extraction, or through the development of inexpensive alternative fuels, there appears to be a real possibility that
OECDs oil consumption will continue to fall, and OECD countries will continue to experience recession and debt
contraction . One concern is that this could end very badly. Banks, insurance companies, and pension
plans are all operated with the expectation that most debt will be repaid according to schedule, with appropriate interest added. They will
encounter serious financial difficulties if they encounter a substantial number of defaults because their
equity will be quickly eroded . The government can use bailouts and stimulus funds to temporarily remedy the situation, but
eventually the widespread nature of the problem will become evident.
There are various types of insurance programs set up to handle bankruptcies of financial institutions, but they are not set up to handle a situation
where problems are widespread. The assumption that is always made in funding these programs that bankruptcy is a very rare independent event.
At some point, there would appear to be a possibility that the
economic decline starts, there seems to be evidence that it is self-reinforcing if OECD countries must
compete with oil exporters and emerging economies for a virtually flat supply of oil, as in the recent past. Investment
capital is likely to be in very short supply, because debt for investment will not be very available, and businesses
may still need to pay back past loans in a declining economy. Lower energetic supplies will make it difficult to maintain all aspects of
infrastructure.
Both Tainter [35] and Meadows [36] have described adverse
a collapse
a steady state economy are proposing an alternative that does not differ materially from
2ACOil Wars
Oil determines the geostrategic context that the US military operates within
CNA Military Advisory Board 10 Retired generals and admirals from all four services [Center for Naval Analyses:
Analysis and Solutions (A not-for-profit company which provides indepth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders set
policy and manage military operations), Powering Americas Economy: Energy Innovation at the Crossroads of National Security Challenges,
July 2010]
Geostrategic challenges: Reliance on foreign oil presents geostrategic challenges to the nation. Oil funds some
nations, notably Iran and Venezuela, whose objectives often run contrary to those of the United States. None of
this is new: guaranteeing access to petroleum has been at the top of the American foreign policy agenda
for decades. In 1980, for example, President Carter declared that American military forces would protect
the Persian Gulf from outside attempts to gain control [5]. American actions abroad are, by
necessity, conducted within this geostrategic context. Pg. 3
2ACPrice Volatility
Price volatility undermines the economy
CNA Military Advisory Board 09 Retired generals and admirals from all four services [Center for Naval Analyses:
Analysis and Solutions (A not-for-profit company which provides indepth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders set
policy and manage military operations), Powering Americas Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security, May 2009]
The volatile fossil fuel markets have a major impact on our national economy, which in turn affects national
security. Upward spikes in energy pricestied to the wild swings now common in the worlds fossil fuel marketsconstrict
the economy in the short-term, and undermine strategic planning in the long-term. Volatility is not limited
to the oil market: the nations economy is also wrenched by the increasingly sharp swings in price of natural gas and coal. This volatility
wreaks havoc with government revenue projections, making the task of addressing strategic and
systemic national security problems much more challenging. It also makes it more difficult for
companies to commit to the long-term investments needed to develop and deploy new energy
technologies and upgrade major infrastructure. Pg. 10-11
2ACOil Competition
Oil supply is constrained. Competition will intensify
CNA Military Advisory Board 09 Retired generals and admirals from all four services [Center for Naval Analyses:
Analysis and Solutions (A not-for-profit company which provides indepth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders set
policy and manage military operations), Powering Americas Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security, May 2009]
The demand for oil is expected to increase even as the supply becomes constrained. A 2007 Government
Accountability Office (GAO) report on peak oil, which considered a wide range of studies on the topic, concluded that the
peak in production is likely to occur some time before 2040 [64]. While that 30-year timeframe may seem long to
some, it is familiar to military planners, who routinely consider the 30- to 40-year life span of major weapon systems. According to the
International Energy Agency (IEA), most countries outside of the Middle East have already reached, or will
soon reach, the peak of their oil production [65]. This includes the U.S., where oil production peaked in 1970.
Just how constrained will oil supplies be? A November 2008 article by Fatih Birol, the
2ACMilitary Readiness
Raising oil prices decreases military readiness
CNA Military Advisory Board 10 Retired generals and admirals from all four services [Center for Naval Analyses:
Analysis and Solutions (A not-for-profit company which provides indepth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders set
policy and manage military operations), Powering Americas Economy: Energy Innovation at the Crossroads of National Security Challenges,
July 2010]
Cost: Like the rest of the country, heavy dependence on oil has significant economic repercussions in DOD.
Given the size of DOD and its rate of energy consumption, the effects are especially significant. In
2008, approximately $20 billion of DODs budget was spent on energy, of which $3.8 billion purchased electricity for
installations [7]. Over the past two decades, the Navys expenditure on energy has increased 500 percent [8]. When the price of fuel spikes (as it
will continue to do), it sends a readiness shock wave through DODs budget. Every
2ACCollapse Impact
Collapse will trigger a 99.4% die-off
Weyler 12 Founding member of Greenpeace [REX WEYLER, Our Future Discussed, Vancouver
Peak Oil, Tues. May 29, 2012, pg. http://vancouverpeakoil.org/2012/05/29/rex-weyler-our-futurediscussed/#more-2819
scenarios: There will indeed be a die-off during humanitys resource downslope, but a die-off
from 7-billion to 40 million ( 99.4% die-off ) would not be a well-organized descent to utopia, it would be chaos, and the most
desperate would lay waste to social infrastructure before theyd let your children and their friends convert cars to electric
1. Collapse
trains or any such thing. It might work on paper to have 40-million people living your present lifestyle, if you could blow the excess people out
like candles, but in the real world, a social
The last time there were 40 million people on Earth, about 4,000 years ago, civilizations had irrigation and
chariots, but achieved this with animal power and slaves , and by destroying forests to smelt copper. Many
cities collapsed between 5,000 BC and 1000 AD.
The inequity
and unsustainable lifestyles of the oligarchs brought these empires down. We possess no
technological miracles that can change this reality. All of our techie toys exist on top of a giant pyramid of
resource extraction, nature-destruction, and human exploitation.
2ACTech Solves
Political motivation for a shift to energy independence exists. US just needs the tech
Grunewald 09 - Argov Fellow @ IDC Herzliya [Adam Grunewald (Third year student, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and
Strategy), Dr. Gal Luft: Turning Oil into Salt, IDC Herzliya, Nov 1, 2009, pg.
http://portal.idc.ac.il/He/Main/about_idc/news_events/DocLib2/71_gal_luft.pdf]
Dr. Luft began his speech with a story about a similar strategic good that dictated the policies of nations for centuries; salt. Before
the
invention of canning and refrigeration, salt was the only means of preserving food. People were often paid
in measures of salt, nations military expeditions were often dictated by salt, and in many countries people would live or
die during the winter based on whether or not they had a large enough supply. Although salt is still widely used today for flavoring and other
purposes,
the invention of modern technologies has stripped the resource of its strategic importance. Dr.
Lufts belief is that when we invest our resources into finding alternative fuel sources, oil will also
lose its significance, and the oil rich Persian Gulf states will lose their leverage over the rest of the world.
This geo-political exploitation is the primary danger associated with the continued world dependence on the
members of OPEC (Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries). Two of the most significant members of this cartel are Iran and Saudi
Arabia, whose massive supply of petro-dollars allows them to sustain their efforts as the largest sponsors
of radical Islam. Most of these OPEC countries are extremely underdeveloped in non-oil industries and are therefore unconcerned with the
well-being of the world economy. Before the 1973 oil embargo, OPEC produced 30 million barrels of oil a day. Today, although the world
economy has more than doubled in size and the demand for oil has skyrocketed over the past 36 years, OPEC produces only 29 million barrels of
oil a day. This cynical strategy exemplifies the mindset of many of the cartels member states, which is to, save it, and let the rest of the world
run out so that they can further their oil-based exploitation.
The United States government, is the largest importer of oil, and is fully aware of the situation of
dependence that has developed between themselves and the Middle East. In fact, energy independence has become
one of the most politically bi-partisan and publicly supported issues in United States history.
Unfortunately, there is a widespread ignorance of how to achieve oil independence, even in the
highest levels of government. During the U.S. presidential election Obama advocated the construction of large numbers of solar and
wind based power plants, while McCain suggested that the nation build more nuclear reactors to get the country away from its need for oil. Dr.
Luft was shocked to find out how little the two candidates knew about the issue. Nuclear, solar, and wind power plants are used to generate
electricity, but today only 2% of the worlds electricity supply is powered by oil; the people vying for the most powerful office in the world do
not understand basic energy 101.
Oil today exercises a complete monopoly over the transportation sector, which is the backbone of a functioning
nation. While the magnitude of the worlds need for oil has become troubling, the most difficult reality is that there are currently no feasible
popular slogan of the Republican Party to, drill here, drill now or the Democrats vision to use less
and conserve are equally nonsensical in the eyes of Dr. Luft. Whether Americans are drilling domestically or consuming
less oil, OPEC will simply drill less and wait until other countries run out. The problem is quite simply that when it comes
to oil, the huge reserves of OPEC states means that they will inevitably control the game and its rules.
alternatives. The
So in the words of Dr. Luft, If you want to beat Serena Williams, dont play tennis against her; play cards, soccer, bowling or anything else, but
dont play tennis.
Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security
Oil independence is possible for the U.S. if comprehensive and aggressive energy policies are implemented
aimed at reducing demand for oil, increasing supply, and promoting alternative fuels.
The trick is to start by thinking about oil independence a little differently. Oil independence should not
be viewed as eliminating all imports of oil or reducing imports from hostile or unstable oil producing states. Instead, it should entail
creating a world where the costs of the countrys dependence on oil would be so small that they
would have little to no effect on our economic, military, or foreign policy. It means creating a world where the
estimated total economic costs of oil dependence would be less than one percent of U.S. gross domestic product by 2030.
Conceived in this way (and contrary to much political commentary these days), researchers at the Oak Ridge National
Laboratory (ORNL) have calculated that if the country as a whole reduced their demand for oil by 7.22
million barrels per day (MBD) and increased supply by 3 MBD, oil independence would be achieved by 2030
with a 95 percent chance of success. By reducing demand for oil, increasing its price elasticity, and increasing the
supply of conventional and unconventional petroleum products, ORNL researchers noted that the country would be
virtually immune from oil price shocks and market uncertainty. If large oil producing states were to respond to the
U.S. by cutting back production, their initial gains from higher prices would also reduce their market share, in turn further limiting their ability to
influence the oil market in the future.
We make the oil problem small enough that we change their foreign policy
decisions.
Sovacool 07 Research Fellow for the Energy Governance Program @ National University of
Singapore [Benjamin K. Sovacool (Professor of International Affairs @ Virginia Tech University),
Solving the oil independence problem: Is it possible?, Energy Policy Volume 35, Issue 11, November
2007, Pages 5505-5514//ScienceDirect]
Indeed, a situation may be imminent where oil independenceproperly conceptualizedis now
achievable for the US. If implemented quickly, a comprehensive policy aimed at developing
alternatives to oil and rigorously promoting transportation energy efficiency could effectively insulate
the US economy from oil price shocks. To accomplish this ambitious task, the country need not get
off oil. Instead, policymakers must make the oil problem small enough that it no longer constrains
the country's foreign policy decisions.
This trend toward increasing international cooperation could see a reversal in coming years and
decades. As noted above, history is replete with instances of resource scarcity fomenting conflict. In such
cases, competitive advantage typically resides either with nations that have domestic resources and
the ability to defend them, or with nations that develop a vigorous, flexible and motivated military
force able to take advantage of other nations' weaknesses in order to seize control of their
resources.
In addition to international conflict, a failure of human cooperation in the face of resource scarcity may also manifest as increasing conflict within
nations. Since 1945, three-quarters of all wars have occurred within nations rather than between them, with most occurring in the world's poorest
countries. About as many people may have died as a result of civil strife since 1980 as were killed in World War I. Civil conflicts devastate poor
nations by destroying essential infrastructure, driving human and capital flight, diverting scarce financial resources toward military spending,
undermining social trust, aggravating existing food shortages and spreading disease.
If the path towards increasing competition leads to both internal and external conflict, then the result - for
winners and losers alike, in a "full" world seeing rapid resource depletion - will most probably be
economic and ecological ruin accompanied by political chaos.
Vents Advantage
***Internal Link***
2ACVents K2 metagenomics
Vents key to metagenomics
Xie et al 11Genetic Engineering and Genomics Joint Laboratory, Huazhong University of Science
and Technology. [Comparative metagenomics of microbial communities inhabiting deep-sea
hydrothermal vent chimneys with contrasting chemistries, Wei Xie, Fengping Wang, Lei Guo, Zeling
Chen, Stefan M Sievert, Jun Meng, Guangrui Hauang, Yuxin Li, Qingyu Yan, Shan Wu, Xin Want,
Shangwu Chen, Guangyuan He, Xiang Xiao, and Anlong Xu, The ISME Journal, Volume 5, 2011, pp
414-426, accessed from Emory] // AG
Deep-sea hydrothermal vent chimneys that form by interactions between hot fluids and cold
seawater are regarded as biogeochemical hot spots, with reactive gases, dissolved elements and
thermal and chemical gradients operating over spatial scales of millimeters and centimeters up to
meters (Schrenk et al., 2003; Kristall et al., 2006). These chemical and thermal gradients along and inside
the sulfide chimneys provide a wide range of microhabitats for chemolithoautotrophic microorganisms
that fix inorganic carbon using chemical energy obtained through the oxidation of reduced inorganic
compounds contained in the hydrothermal fluids, converting the geothermally derived energy into
microbial biomass (for example, Reysenbach and Shock, 2002).
Since the discovery of deep-sea hydrothermal vent systems, the microbial diversity in these systems
has been the subject of studies using both cultivation and cultivation-independent molecular
methods (for example, Nakagawa et al., 2005; Huber et al., 2007). These studies have reported a
remarkable phylogenetic diversity of microbes inhabiting the chimney walls, yet the metabolic
diversity and physiological potential of these microbial communities are only beginning to be revealed.
Progress in understanding this diversity has been made largely because of the recent developments in
high-throughput genomic technologies that enable microbial ecologists to address complex evolutionary
and ecological hypotheses at a community scale (Tyson et al., 2004; Tringe et al., 2005; DeLong et al.,
2006; Grzymski et al., 2008). With advances in sequencing technologies, large-scale genomic surveys
of microbial communities ( metagenomics ) are becoming routine, making deciphering the genetic
and functional differences that make a difference within and among microbial habitats
increasingly feasible. Using metagenomic analysis, the metabolic potential and environmental
adaptation strategies of epi- and endosymbionts of deep-sea hydrothermal vent invertebrates have
been elucidated (Newton et al., 2007; Grzymski et al., 2008). The metagenome of a Lost City carbonate
chimney biofilm, which is so far the only published metagenome from any deep-sea vent chimney, was
found to contain a remarkable abundance and diversity of genes potentially involved in lateral gene
transfer (Brazelton and Baross, 2009). However, it remains elusive whether lateral gene transfer is a
common occurrence in chimney biofilms, or whether it is restricted to certain deep-sea hydrothermal vent
environment, such as Lost City. Comparative metagenomic analysis of chimney biofilms from either
different locations and/or with different geochemistry would provide valuable information on
identifying unique traits of these largely unknown deep-sea microbial communities, in particular in
comparison with those from other environments.
Chuanlun Zhang, Joy D. Van Nostrande, Ye Deng, Zhili He, Liyou Wu, Jizhong Zhou, and Xiang Xiao,
proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 106, Number 12, 2009, pp 4840-4845,
accessed from Emory] // AG
Deep-sea hydrothermal vents are one of the most unique and fascinating ecosystems on Earth.
Although phylogenetic diversity of vent communities has been extensively examined, their physiological
diversity is poorly understood. In this study, a GeoChip-based, high-throughput metagenomics
technology revealed dramatic differences in microbial metabolic functions in a newly grown
protochimney (inner section, Proto-I; outer section, Proto-O) and the outer section of a mature
chimney (4143-1) at the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Very limited numbers of functional genes were detected
in Proto-I (113 genes), whereas much higher numbers of genes were detected in Proto-O (504 genes)
and 4143-1 (5,414 genes). Microbial functional genes/populations in Proto-O and Proto-I were
substantially different (around 1% common genes), suggesting a rapid change in the microbial community
composition during the growth of the chimney. Previously retrieved cbbL and cbbM genes involved in
the Calvin Benson Bassham (CBB) cycle from deep-sea hydrothermal vents were predominant in Proto-O
and 4143-1, whereas photosynthetic green-like cbbL genes were the major components in Proto-I. In
addition, genes involved in methanogenesis, aerobic and anaerobic methane oxidation (e.g., ANME1 and
ANME2), nitrification, denitrification, sulfate reduction, degradation of complex carbon substrates, and
metal resistance were also detected. Clone libraries supported the GeoChip results but were less effective
than the microarray in delineating microbial populations of low biomass. Overall, these results suggest
that the hydrothermal microbial communities are metabolically and physiologically highly diverse,
and the communities appear to be undergoing rapid dynamic succession and adaptation in response
to the steep temperature and chemical gradients across the chimney.
2ACMetagenomics K2 BioTech
Metagenomics key to advances in biotechnology
Schmeisser et al. 07Department of Microbiology and Biotechnology, University of Hamburg.
[Metagenomics, biotechnology with non-culturable microbes, Christel Schmeisser, Helen Steele, and
Wofgang R. Streit, Applied microbiology and biotechnology, Volume 75, Number 5, 2007, pp 955-962,
accessed from Emory.] // AG
Metagenomics, the key to advances in biotechnology
It is well known that biotechnology has a continuous demand for novel genes and enzymes and
compounds. Natural diversity has so far been the best supplier for these novel molecules. This can be
explained by the vast richness of soil and other microbial niches. Studies based on 16 S rDNA/rRNA
have extensively redefined and expanded our knowledge of microbial diversity. Simple calculations of
soil microbial diversity place it in the range of between 3,000 and 11,000 genomes per gram of soil with
less than 1% being accessible through cultivation techniques (Torsvik and Ovreas 2002; Torsvik et al.
2002; Curtis and Sloan 2004). This is probably very similar for many other microbial niches but it is also
clear that many other microbial communities are less diverse. Pure culture analysis of soil
microorganisms has revealed that they are a rich source of novel therapeutic compounds such as
antibiotics (Raaijmakers et al. 1997), anticancer agents (Shen et al. 2001) and immunosuppressants
(Skoko et al. 2005), as well as a wide range of biotechnologically valuable products (Ullrich et al. 2004;
Inoue et al. 2005). However, the cultivation-dependent approach is limited by the fact that the
overwhelming majority of microorganisms present in soil cannot be cultured under laboratory
conditions. There is a vast amount of information held within the genomes of uncultured
microorganisms, and metagenomics is one of the key technologies used to access and investigate this
potential (Handelsman 2004; Pettit 2004; Streit et al. 2004; Streit and Schmitz 2004). Metagenomics
concerns the extraction, cloning and analysis of the entire genetic complement of a habitat (Handelsman
et al. 1998); it is an approach that allows the investigation of the wide diversity of individual genes
and their products as well as analysis of entire operons encoding biosynthetic or degradative
pathways. Metagenomics also makes it possible to answer key ecological questions by enabling
scientists to relate potential functions to specific microorganisms within multispecies soil
communities. Within this framework, this review describes metagenomic methodologies, their
applications in novel drug and enzyme discovery and their potential for biotechnological use.
2ACVents K2 BioTech
Deep-sea hydrothermal vents key to biotechnology
Thornburg et al 09Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Oregon State University...[Deep-Sea
Hydrothermal Vents: Potential Hot Spots for Natural Products Discovery? Christopher C. Thornburg, T.
Mark Zabriskie, and Kerry L. McPhail, Journal of Natural Products, American Chemical Society and
American Society of Pharmacognosy, 20 October 2009, accessed from Emory] // AG
It is well recognized that natural product-based drugs provide a foundation of chemotherapy and trace
back to the use of terrestrial plants and intertidal marine algae as traditional medicines thousands of years
ago.1 As technologies have advanced, the search for new natural product sources of biologically
active compounds has expanded from terrestrial plants to microbes, to shallow water reef marine
algae and invertebrates with their associated symbionts, ocean sediment-derived marine microbes, and
even mine waste extremophiles.2,3 Screening of phylogenetically diverse and unique organisms from rare
or extreme ecosystems is a rational approach to discover novel chemotypes with medicinally
relevant biological activities.4 An unforeseen biological (especially microbial) diversity representing
a largely untapped reservoir of genetic and metabolic heterogeneity continues to yield a wealth of
new chemistry from these sources in ample demonstration of the value of natural products in drug
discovery efforts.5-7 Furthermore, natural products such as colchicine and kainic acid have played a
critical role as research tools for use as molecular probes to dissect biological mechanisms and
reveal new biochemical targets.8 In the recent literature, the deep sea has emerged as a new frontier
in natural products chemistry at a time when there is a dire need for new drug templates to combat
the escalating problem of drug resistance, especially in infectious diseases and cancer.
The deep ocean may be defined technically as depths beyond the euphotic zone (upper 200-300 m),10
where the sea bottom, in darkness, receives less than 1% of organic matter from photosynthetic primary
production, oxygen levels and temperatures (down to 2 C) plummet, and hydrostatic pressures rise to
greater than 1000 atm in the deep trenches (10 m water ) 1 atm). However, in the realm of natural
products chemistry, many logically report depths beyond those readily accessible by scuba as deep.
Thus, in a recent, comprehensive deep-sea review, Skropeta considered the range of ocean environments
below 50 m (164 ft),9 which host a variety of marine invertebrates and microbes adapted to physical
extremes in environmental conditions. The introduction to the latter review provides an informative
overview of the deepsea environment and the effects of the extreme, although very stable, conditions on
the gene regulation, macromolecules, and the metabolism of deep-sea organisms.
Once thought to comprise a very low diversity of organisms evolved to occupy a physiologically
challenging niche that precluded the intense competition of many shallow-water ecosystems, deepsea benthic communities are now recognized to be highly diverse, although not abundant . In the
1960s, focused efforts to sample the deep ocean floor resulted in unexpected findings of high faunal
diversity, even in individual benthic dredge and epi-benthic sled samples from less than 100 to greater
than 5000 m.11
Nevertheless this high diversity, which is on the same order as that found in shallow tropical seas and
has been attributed to the seasonal and geological stability of the deep-sea environment, occurs in
relatively sparse pockets of slow-growing benthic organisms that are likely limited in density by food
scarcity. Therefore, the exceptionally dense and diverse communities within the immediate vicinity
of hydrothermal vents were in stark contrast to the surrounding sea bottom when first observed: in
1977, scientists aboard the manned deep submergence vehicle (DSV) AlVin dove in the Galapagos Rift
valley (ca. 2500 m) to investigate recently photographed communities of large suspension-feeding benthic
organisms surrounding active hydrothermal vents.12 Hydrothermal vents, considered one of the most
extreme environments on Earth, are formed when water heated in Earths crust by magma is forced
explosively to the surface through rock fissures in volcanic regions.
At deep-sea vent sites, in addition to physical extremes of temperature (up to 400 C) and pressure and a
complete absence of light, there are also extremely steep chemical, pH, and temperature gradients
between vent fluids and the surrounding seawater.13 Remarkably, the growth rates of the deep vent
communities proved comparable to organisms from shallow tropical environments,14 and
ultimately, the presence of extremely high concentrations of chemosynthetic microorganisms led to
a new paradigm for primary production in the absence of sunlight.15,16 Noteworthy is that the
discovery of chemosynthetic symbiosis at deep-sea vent sites led to the realization that this phenomenon
occurs in a wide range of habitats worldwide, typically characterized by high sulfide concentrations and
the presence of free-living macroorganisms with reduced digestive systems. This diversity of
chemosynthetic habitats, as well as their hosts and symbionts, is engagingly reviewed byflats, some
shallow-water coastal sediments, whale and wood falls in the deeper ocean, cold seeps, mud volcanoes,
and continental margins, in addition to hydrothermal vents.
Deep-sea hydrothermal vents, besides being extreme environments, also represent some of the most
dynamic environments on Earth. With unpredictable temperatures, chemical concentrations, flow
dynamics, and seasonality, a single vent field may often be comprised of completely different fauna from
one visit to the next.14 As the vent matures and ages, early colonizers are superseded by a succession of
other species in parallel with the diminishing thermal flow volume, temperature, and amount of hydrogen
sulfide.18 A distinction has been made between deep-sea and shallow-water hydrothermal vents on the
basis of their biota. Tarasov et al. have shown a striking change in hydrothermal vent communities at
depths of 200 m (660 ft) based on the occurrence of obligate vent fauna.19
Thus, for the purpose of this review, deep-sea hydrothermal vents are those that occur below 200 m. In
order to discuss deep-sea hydrothermal vents as potential hot spots for natural products investigations,
here we consider the geological setting and geochemical nature of deep-sea vents that impacts the
biogeography of vent organisms, chemosynthesis, and the known biological and metabolic diversity of
eukaryotes and prokaryotes at vent sites and the handful of small molecule natural products isolated to
date directly from deep-sea vent organisms. Of critical importance too are the logistics of collecting
deep vent organisms, opportunities for re-collection, considering the dynamic nature of vent sites,
and the ability to culture natural product producing deep vent organisms in the laboratory.
provide a powerful argument for protection of the deep-sea environment, in order to learn from it day by
day, and stop species from being eradicated even before they are identified.
Deep sea vents and cold seeps key to the biotech industry.
Synnes 07M. (2007). [Bioprospecting of organisms from the deep sea: scientific and environmental
aspects Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy]
The phrase bioprospecting is today most frequently used to describe the collection and screening of biological material for commercial
purposes.
the rate of
discovery of novel metabolites from terrestrial microorganisms is decreasing, which has stimulated
the search for antimicrobial agents from alternative sources. Marine organisms have proved to be a
rich source of structurally novel and biologically active metabolites.
responsible for about 75% of commercially and medically useful antibiotics (Miyadoh 1993; Sujatha et al. 2005). However,
The most attractive marine targets for biomedical research are microorganisms or bottom-dwelling
organisms such as corals, sponges, and tunicates. The deep-sea corals are different from the
shallow-water species. They do not require symbiotic organisms and sunlight to provide their energy needs,
rather they actively feed upon materials and nutrients in the water column (Kiriakoulakis et al. 2004). In
addition to serve as habitat for other organisms such as fish and invertebrate communities, the deep-sea coral ecosystems provide
a rich biodiversity and are considered to be a potential source of novel pharmaceutical or
biotechnological compounds. Many invertebrates, like soft corals and sponges, defend themselves against
predators or competitors by producing toxic chemicals. These toxin-producing abilities are regarded to be a result of
strong evolutionary pressure to become poisonous, and many of the toxins are presently evaluated for medical
applications such as new antibiotics. However, thorough investigations of these invertebrates often reveal that many of the
secreted toxic chemicals do not come from the invertebrate itself. Rather, the source of the novel bioactive compounds may
be microorganisms that live in a symbiotic relationship with the invertebrates. As much as 50% of
the mass of a sponge may in fact be microorganisms (reviewed by Haefner 2003; Salomon et al. 2004).
The microbial growth of marine bacteria and the products of their metabolic activities differ
considerably from those of terrestrial bacteria, and they also produce different enzymes. It has been
estimated that marine environments harbour 3.67 1030 microorganisms (Whitman et al. 1998). The majority of these microbes has never been
cultured, identified, or classified, but is assumed to contain an enormous chemical richness (DeLong 1997). During evolution, the prokaryotes
have evolved to be able to colonize almost every surface or environment on Earth, no matter how hostile the environment are considered to be.
The extreme variety in oceanic environments regarding pressure, salinity, temperature, and
nutrients has forced marine microorganisms to develop unique biochemical and physiological
properties in order to survive (reviewed by Li and Qin 2005).
A rapid progress in technology within molecular biology during the past two decades has revealed many secrets of the marine bacteria, including
an extraordinary phylogenetic diversification. Considering
than 80% of life on earth, and the diversity among marine microorganisms, there is an enormous potential for
future drug discovery. More than 60 new chemical compounds have been isolated from marine actinomycetes over the last 10 years,
and about 2,500 new strains have been isolated (reviewed by Gullo et al. 2006).
Microbial communities in extreme environments
Microbial communities are found in extreme environments that were previously thought to be too hostile to permit the survival of living
organisms. Extremophilic bacteria survive and thrive at harsh conditions such as very acidic/basic pH, low/high temperatures, high salt
concentrations, elevated hydrostatic pressure, and even in the presence of radiation. The thermophiles and hyperthermophiles grow at high or
very high temperatures, respectively; the psychrophiles grow best at low temperatures; the acidophiles and alkaliphiles are optimally adapted to
live in environments with particularly acidic or basic pH values, respectively; the barophiles grow best under pressure, while halophiles require
NaCl for growth (reviewed by Fujiwara 2002). Most of the extremotolerant microorganisms are members of the domain Archaea (reviewed by
Eichler 2001; Egorova and Antranikian 2005). Archaeas adaptation mechanisms to extreme pressure, temperature, toxicity, and pH values make
them particularly attractive to industry and pharmaceutical sector.
When focusing on bioprospecting of marine organisms it is natural to look for organisms that have
adapted to, and survived life in particularly harsh environments. Accelerating technological
development has made it possible for humans to reach to one of the most remote parts of the earth,
the deepest areas of the sea. Life in the deep sea must adapt to unique conditions of low or no light, high
pressure, low energy, and near-freezing or superheated temperatures.
The most extreme environments in the deep sea are considered to be the hydrothermal vents and
the cold seeps. Hydrothermal vents are found along mid-ocean ridges, and is formed where magma from the deep parts of the Earth
emerges. When seawater penetrates the crust, it is heated by the magma, and hot water loaded with high concentrations of various metals and
dissolved sulphide is emanated to the ocean, forming a hot vent. The water temperatures on the hot water chimneys may exceed 400C.
Hydrothermal vents host an array of life which has adapted to living in often highly toxic waters
and complete darkness. In addition to surviving at high pressures, organisms found in these
environments must also be able to thrive at extreme temperatures. Hydrothermal vents can be situated both at
shallow and abyssal depths. Maugeri et al. (2002) reported that the degree of obligacy of fauna changed at the depth of approximately 200 m.
Deep-sea (>200 m) hydrothermal communities were found to differ from shallow-water ones (<200 m) in a much higher ratio of vent obligate
taxa (Maugeri et al. 2002). Though
Cold seeps occur mostly along continental margins, and are a result of methane or methanehydrate ice, hydrogen sulphide, or other hydrocarbon-rich fluid leakages from the sediments. The cold
seeps provide energy for bacteria of which clams, mussels, and tubeworms feed upon (Krger et al. 2005). These bacteria process sulphides and
methane through chemosynthesis into chemical energy. Where methane seeps out of the bottom of seas and oceans below 600 m depth, methane
hydrate is solid since methane freezes at low temperatures and high pressure. Cold-adapted
at temperatures close to the freezing point of water, and in the deep sea they have to be adapted to both extreme
temperatures and extremely high pressures (reviewed by Hoyoux et al. 2004; Georlette et al. 2004; Yayanos 1995).
Thermophilic bacteria grow optimally at temperatures between 45 and 80C, while hyperthermophiles have growth optima over 80C. Enzymes
or other components mediating vital physiological processes are therefore adapted to these temperatures. Proteins from hyperthermophilic
bacteria are generally able to remain stable at temperatures close to, or higher than the boiling point, because they are more compact in their
structure (Mombelli et al. 2002). Previous studies have reported that the key to protein function at thermal extremes is the maintenance of an
appropriate balance between molecular stability and structural flexibility (reviewed by Fields 2001). Other adaptations that have made it possible
for the hyperthermophiles to survive in such harsh environments are the reduced amount of flexibility DNA, which normally denatures at high
temperatures. The DNA keeps its double-stranded form due to positive supercoiling, which allows more heat stability than the negative
supercoiling in DNA of other organisms, and unique DNA binding proteins help to stabilize the DNA (Lopez-Garcia and Forterre 2000; Daniel
and Cowan 2000; Reeve et al. 2004).
The majority of extremely thermophilic microorganisms have been isolated from terrestrial and shallow marine solfataras, and have been a source
of thermostable enzymes that display outstanding stability against high temperature (reviewed by Atomi 2005). Being able to function under
conditions that would denature enzymes taken from most non-thermophilic organisms, these enzymes have proven to be of great use in the
biotechnology industry. A
an SDS-resistant protease which is stable in boiling water (Horikoshi 1998), and a thermostable
DNA polymerase has also been isolated from the deep-sea hydrothermal vent microorganism Thermococcus
litoralis, called the Vent polymerase (Mattila et al. 1991). The Vent polymerase has a proofreading 35
exonuclease activity, is reported to have a lower error rate than the Taq polymerase, and may
therefore be a better alternative than Taq in some PCR applications.
Bacteria isolated from hydrothermal vents have also demonstrated their abilities to produce unusual extracellular polymers, and so far three main
genera producing exopolysaccharides (EPS) have been identified: Pseudoalteromonas, Alteromonas, and Vibrio. Extremophilic microorganisms
have the potential to be a source of new polysaccharides, and to provide knowledge of how biomolecules are stabilized when subjected to
extreme conditions. Microbial
fungal, anti-HIV, anti-tuberculosis, and anti-malaria. The various applications and the desire for
finding new drugs seem to be endless, resulting in a considerable pressure on the marine environment.
Fungi. The looks for new metabolites from marine organisms have resulted in extraction4 of almost
10,000 metabolites till date, out of which many are gifted, with pharmacodynamic properties. Secondary
metabolites produced by marine bacteria and invertebrates have yielded medicinal products such
as novel Antiinflammatory agents (pseudopterosins, topsentins, scytonemin, manoalide), Antibiotics
(marinone), Anti-cancer agents (sarcodictyin, bryostatins, eleutherobin, discodermolide). By merging
the potential of microbial genetics with biological and chemical diversity, apts a bright future for
marine natural product drug discovery5 and related compounds which have taken an edge for
future clinical and advanced preclinical trials6. Deep water glass sponges from silica based structures
may improve the function of fiberoptic cables7 and these provide an insight into bone regeneration.
Most of these derived compounds are used in a variety of consumer products like skin creams, hair
treatments and cosmetics.
Most of the drugs in use today have come from nature . Raising the scientific awareness is now
being focused on the potential medical uses of the benthic organisms. These organisms have
developed unique adaptations to survive in cold, dark and highly pressurized environments.
Metabolites with novel and chemical structures belong to diversified classes and been characterized from
Mangrove and Mangal associates. Many chemicals like amino acids, carbohydrates, fats and proteins are
products of primary metabolism which are vital for maintaining life processes. Some secondary
metabolites like alkaloids, steroids, and terpenoids are classified into secondary metabolites which have
pharmacological, toxicological and ecological significance. Biomedical compounds extracted from
marine organisms8 regulate by understanding the molecular basis of cellular reproduction and
development.
Marine Pharmaceutical Resources
Marine natural products discovery, an area of research has made a considerable progress in recent
years by fulfilling a meaningful role in championing the cause of ocean conservation. The
identification of medically useful compounds produced by marine organisms has led to drug
development opportunities. During the last 30 years around 24,500 samples were isolated, identified
and screened for biological activities such as antidiarrhoeal, antimicrobial, antiviral, antimalarial,
antidiabetic, anti-hyperlipidaemic etc. Most of them exhibited remarkable biological behavior with new
novel chemical structures like amino acids, fatty alcohol esters, glycosides, terpenoids, alkaloids etc.
Because of its enormous biodiversity, the oceans offer huge potential for the discovery of new drugs
with the increase in antibioticresistant microbes, it is increasingly important for new compounds to
be obtained and the oceans offer exceptional opportunities for new pharmaceuticals. Most of the
marine environs cover photic and aphotic zones, covering wide thermal (below freezing temperature to
about 350C in hydothermal vents), pressure (1- 1000 atm) and nutrient ranges (eutrophic to
oligotrophic).
Sources of Bioactive Compounds
There are many number of changes that took place during the adaptation to the terrestrial environment,
but the identification of medically useful compounds produced by marine organisms has led not
only to vitally important drug development opportunities, but also increased interest in preserving
ocean habitat for research. Furthermore, it has fueled the development of new thechniques11 for
generating synthetic versions of natural compounds in order to prevent the unnecessary harvesting of
organisms from their natural habitats. The scientific study of marine animals is an endeavor defined
by unpredictable and serendipitous discoveries. The ability to procure the marine life forms12 is
fundamental to turn a natural compound or a synthetic counterpart into a safe and effective
pharmaceutical product.
***Plan Solves***
samples using deep-sea submersibles and from laboratory isolation and cultivation of some
microorganisms. No assessment of the potential for discovery of new chemical templates can be made
based on the sole reports to date of the loihichelins and ammonificins from deep-sea vent organisms, and
indeed it is too early to designate deep-sea vents as natural products hot spots. However, the
burgeoning evidence of microbial diversity and concomitant species competition and syntropy/
symbiosis, in tandem with the potential to integrate biological sampling for natural products
research with ongoing deep-sea vent explorations, warrants concerted natural products
investigations of deep-sea hydrothermal vent and cold-seep environments.
north and south. The program goals included making more accurate measurements of the heat and mass
flowing from the system, and observing how the hydrothermal plumbing is influenced by tides and by
high-temperature reactions that separate elements into saltier liquids and more vapor-rich fluids (a process
called phase separation).
Instruments were deployed to continuously monitor vent fluid temperatures, flow rates, and chemical
properties. Scientists also used newly developed samplers to collect fluids at regular time intervals. While
these instruments were in place, other researchers made acoustic images of vent structures and venting
fluids. Still others used the Autonomous Benthic Explorer (ABE) to measure water column properties
above the vent field, seafloor depth, and magnetic signatures.
Later in the program, the team deployed a systematic array of current meters, thermistor strings,
magnetometers, and tilt meters. Scientists even tested techniques to eavesdrop on the data being
collected and download it without removing the instrument from the vent. The result of this collective
effort was the most comprehensive study of a hydrothermal system to date, and a model for future
seafloor observatories.
A continually unfolding story
As we develop these new techniques and instruments, our ability to explore ongoing seafloor
processes will grow. More than a quarter-century into our studies, we still find ourselves constantly
revising and refining our ideas about hydrothermal systems.
Hydrothermal Environments, Tom McCollom and Jeffrey Seewald, Chemical Reviews, Volume 107,
Number 2, 2007, pp 382-401, accessed from Emory] // AG
5. Concluding Remarks
The high abundance of methane in high-temperature hydrothermal fluids and fluid inclusions, its
isotopic composition, and experiments demonstrating abiotic synthesis under hydrothermal conditions
suggest that abiotic methane is present in deep-sea hydrothermal fluids and may even represent the
dominant source in many systems, particularly those hosted in serpentinites. The possible contribution
of abiotic synthesis to more complex organic matter, however, is less clear. While hydrocarbons and other
organic compounds have been observed in hydrothermal fluids and associated mineral deposits, criteria
that can be used to differentiate the abiotic compounds from those derived from other sources have not
yet emerged. Experimental studies have shown that light hydrocarbons and more complex
compounds can be synthesized under certain hydrothermal conditions, while other experiments
conducted under similar conditions have failed to produce organic compounds except for methane. It is
not yet clear what factors control whether or not synthesis can proceed, making it difficult at this
time to identify with certainty those environments within natural hydrothermal systems where
abiotic synthesis might be occurring.
Some additional observations could significantly improve understanding of abiotic synthesis in
hydrothermal environments. First, more comprehensive analyses of the organic composition of vent
fluids and mineral deposits would be helpful. To date, organic analyses of vent fluids in unsedimented
systems have been largely limited to methane, and measurements of other compounds would provide
additional constraints to evaluate possible abiotic contributions. Isotopic measurements of these
compounds are prospectively very useful, given that abiotic organic compounds from other environments
appear to exhibit identifiable isotope trends. Second, further experimental studies are required to
understand the range of conditions that allow for abiotic synthesis in hydrothermal environments. These
experiments should include isotopic analysis of reactants and products to more clearly define the isotopic
composition of abiotically synthesized compounds.
Achieving these research objectives will present significant challenges to future researchers. For
example, the low abundance of many organic compounds in the highly saline and H2S-rich vent fluids
requires development of sampling and analytical methods beyond the capabilities of those currently
employed in deep-sea research. From an experimental perspective, the presence of significant levels of
Abiotic Synthesis of Organic Compounds Chemical Reviews, 2007, Vol. 107, No. 2 399 background
carbon in natural minerals makes experimental study of isotopic fractionation problematic for
hydrothermal conditions where yields of abiotic compounds may be low. Nevertheless, overcoming
these challenges will be required to make more precise assessments of the potential contributions of
abiotic synthesis to the organic matter of hydrothermal systems.
***Impact***
require mass vaccinations. The government has a stockpile of old smallpox vaccine, but the supply is
limited. It is, moreover, a primitive product, not substantially different from the vaccine discovered by
English physician Edward Jenner in 1796.
Tsunamis Add-on
1ACTsunamis Adv
MHs trigger tsunami causing landslides
Twitchell et al 09MS in Education and Zoology from Yale. [Morphology of late Quaternary
submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic continental margin, David C. Twitchell, Jason D. Chaytorb,
Uri S. ten Brinka, and Brian Buczkowskia, Marine Geology, Volume 264, Issues 1-2, 1 August 2009, pp
4-15, accessed through Emory] // AG
5.3. Triggering mechanisms
The triggering of landslides on the Atlantic margin is commonly attributed to earthquakes (Booth et
al., 1993, Lee, 2009-this issue and ten Brink et al., 2009), but other processes including oversteepening
(Lee, 2009-this issue), dissociation of gas hydrates during periods of lower sealevel (Booth et al.,
1993, Dillon et al., 1993 and Popenoe et al., 1993), and fluid discharge (Robb, 1984, Dugan and
Flemings, 2000 and Person et al., 2003 may have pre-conditioned the material for failure. The mapping
shown here suggests that some processes have had influence on canyon-sourced landslides and others on
open-slope sourced landslides.
Oversteepening of the landslide source areas probably was not a major triggering mechanism for
the landslides on this margin. The sea floor surrounding the source areas of the open-slope sourced
landslides is on average less than 6; well below the angle of repose. The sea floor surrounding the heads
of the canyon-sourced landslides is steeper, and canyon walls can exceed 20 (Fig. 4). Because of the
steepness of the canyon walls, oversteepening may have contributed to small failures of sediment
supplied to canyon heads during lowstands in sea level. The small size of the gullies and scarps in the
canyon heads (Fig. 8) suggests individual failures were small however.
Dillon et al. (1993), Booth et al. (1993) and Popenoe et al. (1993) have suggested that the decomposition
of gas hydrates during periods of lowered sea level might have contributed to triggering landslides.
Maslin et al. (2004) and Hornbach et al. (2007) point out that gas hydrates are most susceptible to
decomposition in response to lowered sea level if they occur in 200600 m water depths. Sultan et al.
(2004) suggest that hydrate dissociation in water depths as deep as 1200 m may have triggered the
Storegga slide on the Norwegian margin. Of the two types of landslides we mapped, decomposition of
gas hydrates may have caused some of the canyon head failures, but probably had less effect on the
open-slope sourced landslides because the depths of their source areas are at much greater depths than
those where hydrates are most susceptible to decomposition. Furthermore, geophysical mapping of
bottom simulating reflectors (Tucholke et al., 1977 and Dillon et al., 1986), an indicator of the presence of
gas hydrates, has not identified them under the southern New England or Georges Bank parts of the
margin where landslides have the greatest aerial extent.
years (Hampton et al. 1996; Locat and Lee 2002; Masson et al. 2006; ten Brink 2009; Vanneste et al.
2011a). This is among other factors due to the studies of the tsunami induced by the 8150-year BP
Storegga Slide (Bondevik et al. 2005; Harbitz 1992) and the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami (e.g.
Bardet et al. 2003; Tappin et al. 2008). At the same time, offshore industry explorations and geomarine
surveys such as the Ormen Lange study (Solheim et al. 2005a) have provided better understanding of the
evolution of submarine landslides. This has increased the attention on possible submarine landslide
tsunamis caused also by industrial activities where liability on third party comes into play. Earlier
studies of the 1929 Grand Banks event (Fine et al. 2005; Heezen and Ewing 1952; Piper et al. 1999)
should also be mentioned in this context.
Tsunamis induced by landslides display a great variety. Most landslides that cause tsunamis result in
more local effects than comparable earthquake-induced tsunamis, due to different source characteristics
(Harbitz et al. 2006; Okal and Synolakis 2004). Examples of submarine landslides or slumps that have
caused large run-up heights locally comprise the 1899 Ceram event (12 m, Yudichara pers. comm.
2008, NGDC 2013), the 1929 Grand Banks event (13 m, Fine et al. 2005), the 1992 Flores event (26 m
or 19.6 m averaged from four nearby measurements, Yeh et al. 1993), the 1998 Papua New Guinea event
(>15 m, Tappin et al. 2008), and the 1979 Nice event (3 m, Assier-Rzadkiewicz et al. 2000).
However, enormous submarine landslides exhibiting volumes of several thousands of km3 may
cause tsunamis with more widespread effects (Lvholt et al. 2005; Masson et al. 2006; Vanneste et al.
2011b). Numerical simulations reveal run-up heights up to 8.8 m for the 2550 ka BP Currituck (165
km3) landslide tsunami (Geist et al. 2009), and >9 m near-shore and 25 m offshore surface elevations
for the 11,500-year BP BIG95 (26 km3) landslide tsunami (Iglesias et al. 2012; Lvholt et al. 2013).
Numerical simulations and tsunami deposits from the 8150-year BP Storegga Slide (2,400 km3) reveal
regional shoreline water levels of 1020 m (Bondevik et al. 2005, Harbitz 1992). Similarly, simulations of
the 1,200 km3 Brunei landslide reveal offshore wave heights exceeding 5 m (Okal et al. 2011). Ward
(2001) simulated a series of possible tsunamis revisiting historical events, providing near-shore
amplitudes of 4060 m for the 5,000 km3 Nuuanu landslide near Hawaii, 30 m for the Storegga landslide
(assuming a volume of 5,500 km3), and 47 m waves offshore for the Currituck landslide (labelled
Norfolk Canyon landslide by Ward, 2001).
Volcanic flank collapses plunging into the water may also cause tsunamis inducing distant destruction
(Abadie et al. 2012; Lvholt et al. 2008; Ward and Day 2001), although their tsunamigenic potentials are
disputed (e.g. Gisler et al. 2006; Masson et al. 2006; McGuire 2006; McMurtry et al. 2004; PararasCarayannis 2002; Wynn and Masson 2003). Numerical simulations of the ca. 127 ka BP Alika giant
submarine landslide and corresponding tsunami deposits at Lanai Island (corrected for sea island
subsidence) indicate regional run-up heights exceeding 2300 m (McMurtry et al. 2004). At Gran
Canaria in the Canary Islands, tsunami deposits are observed up to 188 m above present sea level,
probably following a 830 ka BP lateral collapse at neighbouring Tenerife Island (McGuire 2006). To the
authors knowledge, there are no examples of volcano collapse of lava domes, flank failures, pyroclastic
flows, lahars, or debris flows that have caused severe tsunamis of regional impact in historical times
(eruptive volcano tsunamis excluded here). Nevertheless, due to their potential catastrophic impact, these
types of massive events have received considerable attention, albeit being rare. However, several local
volcano flank collapse tsunami events with reported run-up heights up to 15 m are observed (some with
significant loss of lives), for example, in the Caribbean (Harbitz et al. 2012 and references therein), 2002
Stromboli Island (Italy; Tinti et al. 2005), as well as 1640 Komaga-Take, 1741 Oshima-Oshima, and 1792
Shimabara Bay (Mount Unzen, Japan; Inoue 1999), 1871 Ruang and 1979 Iliwerung (Indonesia), and
1888 Ritter Island (Papua New Guinea; McGuire 2006 and references therein). The 1888 Ritter Island
event of approximately 5 km3 is the largest historical lateral volcano collapse.
In spite of low probabilities, submarine landslides may cause larger tsunami inundation compared
to earthquake-induced tsunamis as demonstrated above . This may be important for location and
design of critical infrastructure that are often based on very long return periods (thousands of years)
that may be weakly justified (P. J. Lynett pers. comm. 2012).
Mapping MH solves
Hnerbach 04Partner at the Continental Slope Stability project. [Landslides in the North Altantic
and its adjacent seas: an analysis of their morphology, setting and behavior, Marine Geology, Volume
213, Issues 1-4, December 2004, pp 343-362, accessed through Emory] // AG
The involvement of trigger mechanisms has been mostly excluded in this discussion because there was no
clear picture of any dominating mechanism in the data set. Possible trigger mechanisms which are, or
thought to be, most common, include earthquakes, gas hydrates, tectonic movement, solifluction,
internal waves, sediment overload, erosion, sea-level change, ground-/freshwater seepage and, especially
in fjords, human impact.
It is clear from our study that a much more meaningful analysis could have been performed if more
modern high-resolution mapping data had been available. Collecting high-resolution sidescan,
multibeam and seismic data to get a complete picture of a submarine landslide and its surrounding
environment, dimensions, surface and subsurface expression is a necessity; not only for statistical
analysis, but also to give more insight in the processes involved in landsliding. Geotechnical data
from boreholes and samples is likely to hold the key to understanding landslide processes, but is
rarely available. This is sometimes both technically difficult and expensive to obtain, although some
such data exist already, particularly in industry, which needs to be encouraged to release it to the
academic community. Initiatives like COSTA are a good opportunity to bring industry and scientists
together and try to reach these aims.
2ACTsunami Impact
Tsunamis cause total destruction
Pendick 04M.A., History of Science and Medicine from the University of Wisconsin. [A Deadly
Force, Daniel Pendick, PBS, 26 December 2004, http://www.pbs.org/wnet/savageearth/tsunami/] // AG
On the open ocean, tsunami waves approach speeds of 500 mph, almost fast enough to keep pace
with a jetliner. But gazing out the window of a 747, you wouldn't be able to pick it out from the winddriven swells. In deep water, the waves spread out and hunch down, with hundreds of miles between
crests that may be just a few feet high. A passenger on a passing ship would scarcely detect their
passing. But in fact the tsunami crest is just the very tip of a vast mass of water in motion. Though winddriven waves and swells are confined to a shallow layer near the ocean surface, a tsunami extends
thousands of feet deep into the ocean.
Because the momentum of the waves is so great, a tsunami can travel great distances with little loss of
energy. The 1960 earthquake off the coast of Chile generated a tsunami that had enough force to kill 150
people in Japan after a journey of 22 hours and 10,000 miles. The waves from a trans-Pacific tsunami can
reverberate back and forth across the ocean for days, making it jiggle like a planetary-scale pan of Jell-O.
As the waves in the tsunami reach shore, they slow down due to the shallowing sea floor, and the
loss in speed is often accompanied by a dramatic increase in wave height. The waves scrunch
together like the ribs of an accordion and heave upward. Depending on the geometry of the seafloor
warping that first generated the waves, tsunami attacks can take different forms. In certain cases, the sea
can seem at first to draw a breath and empty harbors, leaving fish flopping on the mud. This sometimes
draws the curious to the shoreline and to their deaths, since the withdrawing of the sea is inevitably
followed by the arrival of the crest of a tsunami wave. Tsunamis also flood in suddenly without
warning. Tsunami waves usually don't curve over and break, like Hawaiian surf waves. Survivors of
tsunami attacks describe them as dark "walls" of water. Impelled by the mass of water behind them, the
waves bulldoze onto the shore and inundate the coast, snapping trees like twigs, toppling stone walls and
lighthouses, and smashing houses and buildings into kindling.
The contours of the seafloor and coastline have a profound influence on the height of the waves -sometimes with surprising and dangerous results. During the 1993 tsunami attack on Okushiri, Japan,
the wave "runup" on the coast averaged about 15 to 20 meters (50 - 65 feet). But in one particular spot,
the waves pushed into a V-shaped valley open to the sea, concentrating the water in a tighter and
tighter space. In the end, the water ran up to 32 meters (90 feet) above sea level, about the height of
an 8-story office building.
2ACBioD Impact
Tsunamis wreck biodiversity
Arya et al 06Ministry of Home Affairs of India, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Eq. Engineering, IIT
Roorkee. [Some aspects of tsunami impact and recovery in India, Anand S. Arya and E.V. Muely,
Disaster Prevention and Management, Volume 15, Number 1, 2006, pp 51-66, accessed through Emory]
// AG
2.8 Impact on coastal and marine environment
Studies on rapid assessment of the impact of tsunami on the coastal and marine environment
including the bio-diversity in Andaman and Nicobar Islands as well as areas in Tamil Nadu indicate
varying degrees of damage. Many of these islands have gone through submergence of coastal flat lands
with massive ingress of the saline water and change of coastlines leading to changes in the terrestrial
and marine environment. The Pulomilo Island that was once connected with Little Nicobar has been
completely submerged except for a small hill top whereas the western coasts of Great and Little Nicobars
have been partially submerged Similarly, the Central Nicobar Islands of Trinket and Katchal have split
with wide cracks, resulting into complete transformation of topography and contour of island coastline.
Studies also reveal massive loss of human life in all the tsunami affected areas besides destruction of
coastal settlements and infrastructure, loss of fishing boats and facilities as well as degradation of
agricultural lands and forests besides salinization and contamination of water resources.
Observations on the damages caused to the ecosystems show increased levels of turbidity, reduction in
water transparency leading to loss of primary productivity, uprooting and devastation of corals, loss
of habitat and breeding cycles and loss of places of various species of flora and fauna or ecological
and economic significance as well as fish and fisheries in the region. It has also been reported that
Mangroves in Pichavaram and Muthupet in Tamil Nadu have resisted devastating impact of tsunami by
absorbing the wave energy resulting into reduction of losses to lives as well as properties in their vicinity.
Information about the structure of the failed layers, their sedimentology, and their geotechnical
properties might give further insight into the mechanisms involved, but without these more detailed
observations, it remains unclear why so many failures happen at these water depths. Gas hydrates and
possible hydrate instability (Mienert et al., 2002) and/or internal waves (Cacchione and Pratson, 2004
and Cacchione et al., 2002) could play an important role in destabilising sediments at these water
depths, but again much more data is required to prove their involvement.
Gas hydrates cause sediment instability causing environmental and economic losses
Hovland & Gudmestad 01Professor emeritus at the University of Bergen, and Professor of
Marine technology at the University of Stavanger. [Potential influences of gas hydrates on seabead
installations, Natural gas hydrates: occurrence, distribution, and detection (2001), pp 309-310] // AG
Sediment instability can be caused by gas hydrates dissociating from lower layers, resulting in
decreased sediment strength. A similar phenomenon is experienced in permafrost regions onshore in
association with the heating of permafrost. Dissociation of gas hydrates can be caused by temperature
increases or pressure fluctuations. Of particular concern is the potential reduction in sediment
strength of sloping sediments, which could trigger underwater slides and movement of large
sediment volumes.
Near a deep-water Gulf of Mexico construction site Prior and Hooper (1999) investigated signs of
sediment instability. Their case study demonstrates the effort needed to assess and secure a potentially
dangerous geohazard associated with gas and gas hydrates: "A deep water oil and gas production Tension
Leg Platform (TLP) system has been successfully installed in 872 m water depth, in an area where there
has been a history of point-source repetitive debris flows (Prior and Doyle, 1993). Detailed mapping
using deep tow survey techniques revealed that two large fluid expulsion mounds and craters are the
sources of debris flows, with chutes and shear-bounded channels leading downslope to a sequence of
stacked debris lobes. Analysis of lobe geometries and sediment properties revealed episodes of repeated
debris flows that began on slopes of 10 to 15, and were associated with periodic venting of large
volumes of overpressured gas, with debris runout distances of up to 11 km. Development of the TLP site
model, particularly using sediment properties and agedating, yielded the following information:
- the site is 1,800 m downslope from the most recent flows;
-the most recent flows occurred within the last 1,000 years but are low magnitude, very thin flows not
exceeding 5 m thick;
-there are indications of about 4 events in the past 12,000 years;
-a deeply buried flow dates from about 25 to 30,000 years BP; and
-older more deeply bedded flows are of Pleistocene age, greater than 30,000 years.
From an engineering perspective, it is evident that the site has not experienced debris flow activity for at
least 12,000 years because all the later debris flows stopped short of the site by at least 1,800 m.
Furthermore, if debris flows recur, the overall frequency pattern suggests the TLP will not be affected
during its lifetime. Also, the general trend in reduction of debris flow magnitude (thickness and runout
distance) with time suggests that the maximum flow thickness that could affect the site would be 4 to 5 m.
There are geotechnical data for the flow deposits to provide a conservative approach to foundation
design." (Prior and Hooper, 1999, p. 434-435).
The consequences of gas hydrate associated sediment instability to engineering structures would of
course be very damaging. The potentially most disruptive engineering structures are considered to
be those carrying warm fluids, like wells with hydrocarbons and hot pipelines. An extensive
evaluation of the sea floor stability should precede any sea floor installation operation in order to
prevent any unwanted instability development. The consequences could be both serious
environmental damage by hydrocarbon release through free flowing wells, or by sea floor slumping
and total loss of engineering structures. Thus, the economic consequences associated with losses
and environmental damage must be considered as well. Often, it is only when such an economic
consequence assessment has been performed that the magnitude of an unwanted event is properly
understood and action is taken to investigate the true natural conditions.
Alternatively, the forces from the gas plume could represent a skew load causing the rig to heel (Hovland
and Judd, 1988).
The greatest drilling concern, however, is associated with the production of warm hydrocarbons (up
to over 100C) through a casing, heating the surrounding formations. Examples of casing collapse due
to excess local pressure caused by dissociating in-situ gas hydrates is known to have occurred (Fig.
4). Although insulation of the casing may be attempted, it is doubted whether the present state of
knowledge and technology guarantees sufficient measures of safe operations. Another aspect of concern
is the possibility of introducing gas hydrates in the drilling mud with possible loss of drilling mud control
and free gas development as the hydrates dissociate.
If there is the slightest probability that wells could be severed due to sediment movement, subsea safety
barriers must be installed to avoid free-flowing wells.
Solvency
***Plan Solves***
2ACMapping Feasible
Deeptowed marine DC can map MHs
Goto et al 08Associate Professor in the Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, PhD
in Engineering from Kyoto University. [A marine deep-towed DC resistivity survey in a methane
hydrate area, Japan Sea, Exploration Geophysics, Volume 39, 2008, pp 53-54, Csiro Publishing,
accessed from Emory] // AG
Introduction
Methane hydrates (MHs) are naturally occurring solids consisting of methane and water at low
temperature and high pressure. MH is mainly found in permafrost in polar regions, and in sedimentary
layers along continental margins. A large amount of methane gas may be contained in the MH layer,
so that MH is expected to be a new energy resource (e.g. Kvenvolden, 1993). On the other hand, MH
will have a signicant impact on global warming, because methane is one of the greenhouse gases.
Seismic reectors approximately parallel to the seaoor are often identied below continental
margins, and are often used to detect MH. They are called bottom simulating reectors (BSRs).
Since the polarity of the wavelet reected from BSRs is opposite from that of seaoor reections, BSRs
are interpreted as a phase boundary between solid hydrate and free gas below the MH zone (Shipley et al.,
1979). However, there are generally no clear seismic reectors at the top boundary of the MH zone,
and the upper bound of the MH zone has not been resolved well. In some cases, the existence of
much gas hydrate has been inferred where no BSR was found (Paull et al., 2000).
In this paper, we introduce a new geophysical tool, sensitive to MH layers: a marine DC resistivity
survey system. As summarised in Goldberg et al. (2000), the resistivity of a formation including massive
MH may be as high as several tens of .m, whereas sediments without MH typically have a resistivity
of1.m. Thus, a resistivity survey has potential for imaging the MH zone. Recently, marine DC
resistivity surveys have been carried out in shallow water areas (Lile et al., 1994; Inoue, 2005; Kwon et
al., 2005; Allen and Merrick, 2007). For example, Kwon et al. (2005) conducted a DC resistivity survey
with a oating cable and detected fault zones below a river bed. These recent studies show how
effectively a marine DC resistivity survey can produce images of sub-seaoor structures. However,
its applications to deep sea surveying have been rare. Von Herzen et al. (1996) carried out a pioneering
DC resistivity survey on a hydrothermal mound by using a submersible, and estimated the resistivity of
sulphides at shallow depths (<10 m). The water depth was 3600 m.
Controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) soundings have been applied to detect MH zones below
the deep seaoor. Yuan and Edwards (2000) used a deep-towed CSEM source and two towed receivers,
and found a relatively high resistivity layer related to MHs. Due to the limited number of their receivers,
spatial and depth resolutions were quite limited in their study. Weitemeyer et al. (2006) used a deeptowed CSEM source and ocean-bottom receivers, and indicated lateral resistivity variation across a
hydrate ridge. However, the horizontal resolution near the seafloor was limited because number of
ocean-bottom receivers was limited. Therefore, we have adopted a deeptowed marine DC resistivity
method, with multiple electrodes but without ocean-bottom receivers, for detecting MH zones. In
this study, we first use numerical calculations to demonstrate how effectively a marine DC resistivity
method images the top surface ofMHlayer. Then, we introduce a field test of our marine DC resistivity
survey system.
2ACNow K2 Solve
Methane hydrate projects now
Wallman 13, K.J. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMOS21D..01W
Vast amounts of natural gas are stored in marine gas hydrates deposited at continental margins. The global inventory of carbon bound as methane
in gas hydrates is currently estimated as 1000 500 Gt. Large-scale
we consider the worldwide estimate of methane in methane hydrates as being 700,000 Tcf
current conventionally recoverable methane 8,800 Trillion cubic feet (Tcf). Even if 1% of gasin-place in hydrates is recoverable it is equal to 2,000 Tcf.
against
deposits are plentiful, and the volume of methane gas associated with them is
massive, the drilling and well logging projects conducted so far has identified that the hydrates are deposited in vastly different environments
of depositions and in different accumulations. Technical and economic viability with these environments of deposition will be determined by
reservoirs with suitable rock and petrophysical properties e.g. porosity, saturation, permeability derived from log analysis and laboratory analysis,
combined with flow rate sustainability, ultimate recovery factors, reservoir volumetrics and proven techniques for extraction of the methane gas
to market. Subsea wells have a traditional arrangement of wellhead, xmas tree and manifold, the tree and manifold also have attached the controls
module and any instrumentation termination from pressure, temperature, and flow instrumentation within the surface or subsurface equipment.
The complexity of the subsea architecture has continued to increase and, with it, the weight and size of the respective components. Some
anecdotal evidence in circa 1980 in the North Sea dual bore subsea trees weighed a little over 14 tonnes. Today in deepwater they are installing
subsea trees that weigh almost 50 tonnes and have the same or similar pressure and temperature ratings as those installed in the 1980s. This
weight increase brings with it a huge cost increase and a deepwater tree is currently costing circa $5 million per unit. Reviewing this brought the
realisation that the subsea architecture, tree wellhead and manifold have evolved from land systems and have steadily increased in complexity
and cost and need radical change in methane gas hydrate exploitation. The subsea hydrate architecture invented (patent application 0908018.5)
will remove the need for any subsea tree system totally, whilst at the same time provide improvements in 105 environmental and personal safety.
The system has additional design features in that it isolates the well from flow for intervention operations, provides a collection point or gas
escape around the wellhead (residual risk as methane gas is dissociated from the hydrate and near bore stability is affected), allows variable
setting of the wellhead position to aid top-hole drilling and minimise directional variation in the unconsolidated top hole section, integrates in
modular fashion services, and ancillary systems, that will allow removal of water and sand from the well bore effluent and provide functionality
to pump this effluent to disposal wells within the hydrate system.
The hydrate exploitation design proposed will be a simple seabed mounted system. It will be
capable of being deployed in a water depth ranging from 500m to 1500m, depending upon site location and
topography. The slim hole system is chosen as it will offer a simpler and, hence, more cost effective
means of deploying the system from a floating hoist vessel of opportunity smaller than a more expensive semi submersible
drilling rig. The device is original in that it deviates from standard oil and gas well engineering and subsea apparatus. The research also helped
derive the concept of the use of a so called Vessel of Opportunity in deepwater hydrate operations. The
use of a conventional
drillship type vessel would never be economic, so an alternative had to be designed. The driver, as in
all development of safely exploitable hydrocarbon resource, will remain financially rewarding. This is
namely value derived from investment committed. These methane gas hydrates are deemed important as a future
energy resource, and Nations are looking at this resource as a means to provide methane gas to
contribute to their demands for energy consumption. 106 To date, the world has not been able to bring
this energy resource to market because the understanding of the volumes and cost of exploitation
exceeds the gas price achievable. Until this cost for exploitation can be substantially reduced, gas
hydrates will remain dormant as a world energy resource, and continue to be regarded as a safety hazard for conventional drilling
hazards or an environmental hazard for global warming.
Nations of the world such as the United States of America, Japan, Canada, The European Union (on behalf of member states), Korea and India
are investing heavily in research and development to gain a better understanding of the gas hydrate energy source.
It is concluded that the
2ACExploration K2 MH Development
Exploration key to development of MH
Boswell 07PhD in Geology from West Virginia University and Technology Manger for Methane
Hydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory for the DOE. [Resource potential of methane
hydrate coming into focus, Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, Volume 56, 2007, pp 11-12]
// AG
9. Summary
Through a half-decade of laboratory and field work, we learned much more about methane hydrate, both
as a physical substance, and as a constituent of the natural environment. We are now confident that
production at potentially viable rates is technically feasible under certain conditions. However, the
remaining challenges are significant. We still do not know the scale of the potentially recoverable
share of the in-place resource, particularly in the marine setting. We still do not have proven means
of remotely detecting and appraising marine accumulations. And there is much testing and refining to be
done on the technologies that will be used to produce hydrate. Nonetheless, the work accomplished under
the first 5 years of the MHR&D act left us well positioned to efficiently address these challenges. The
new appreciation for the complexities of natural hydrates is a key step in moving to a more
complete understanding that incorporates standard industry concepts such as petroleum systems,
prospects, and recoverable resources. Given the success with other resources once considered to be
pie-in-the-sky or unrecoverable, the prospects for hydrate recovery are clearly worth pursuing.
For methane hydrate to fulfill its potential as a paradigm-shifting future energy source, it will be
necessary to access hydrate in the marine environment. No one doubts that the conversion of marine
methane hydrate into a viable resource will pose serious technical challenges. Therefore, hydrate R&D is
likely to progress along two paths. Research on the demonstration of technologies for hydrate prospect
delineation, drilling, and production should continue to focus on the more accessible Arctic
accumulations. A variety of production well tests across a broad spectrum of geologic settings is needed.
At the same time, research in the marine environment should focus on development of exploration
technologies and the initiation of an extensive exploratory well drilling campaign designed to
ground truth exploration technologies and determine the scale of the potentially produceable
marine hydrate resources. Later, maturing hydrate production technologies developed in the Arctic can
be translated and modified for the sandstone reservoirs in the marine environment. Looking further,
fundamental engineering and scientific breakthroughs will be required to access the broader,
dispersed, and low-concentration marine deposits encased in fine-grained sediments.
marine technology consulting services, primarily to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) where he was the founding Chair of the NOAA-wide AUV Working Group;
Technology Development for Ocean Exploration, IEEE Xplore, NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration
\\NL]
B. NOAA Programs
Within NOAA, OE is collaborating across line offices and working to improve the tools available to
NOAA ocean scientists and explorers. A primary example is OE leadership of a working group to
promote the appropriate use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) within NOAA.
AUVs provide a new approach to missions ranging from hydrographic surveying and habitat
assessment to mid-water oceanography and marine archaeology. The AUV working group supports
teams from across NOAA interested in AUVs for fisheries research, hydrographic surveys and deep sea
coral studies. A variety of user groups with NOAA have adopted AUVs for pilot programs and OE
is working to expand these efforts. [E!] OE has also taken the lead in development of concepts for
the use of multiple AUV systems in NOAA. [9]
***Actor***
2ACDOE Key
DOE key to lead MH development and exploration
NPC 11National Petroleum Council, a federal advisory agency to the Secretary of Energy [Prudent
Development: Realizing the Potential of North Americas Abundant Natural Gas and Oil Resources,
National Petroleum Council, 2011, pp 32] // AG
Recommendation
yy Even as natural gas and oil companies continue to fund their own proprietary technology and other
research, federal government agencies should also support the development of new technology. While
different federal agencies may be appropriate homes for a range of research and technology development
efforts, the Department of Energy should lead in identifying, in some cases funding, and in other
cases supporting public-private partnerships for research and development on energy and certain
environmental issues of national interest (e.g., precommercial issues or issues where companies cannot
retain intellectual property). Examples where federal involvement is needed include:
The environmental impact of oil spills and cleanup, including residual effects of chemical dispersants,
and science-based risk assessments
Science and pre-commercial technology relating to methane hydrates
2ACUSFG K2 Exploration/Development
National methane hydrate research programs key to development
Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization that
represents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,
aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.
[Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring
Program, Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 10,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-finalreport.pdf ] // AG
Over the last 10 years, national led methane hydrate research programs, along with industry interest
have led to the development and execution of major methane hydrate production field test
programs. Two of the most important field testing programs have been conducted at the Mallik site in the
Mackenzie River Delta of Canada and in the Eileen methane hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of
Alaska. Most recently we have also seen the completion of the worlds first marine methane hydrate
production test in the Nankai Trough in the offshore of Japan. Industry interest in gas hydrates has
also included important projects that have dealt with the assessment of geologic hazards associated with
the presence of hydrates.
2ACNOAA OE Funding
OE funding mechanisms
Manley 4 [Justin E. NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration. Manley has been working with marine technology
since 1990. He was a principal in the development of unmanned marine vehicles at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology from 1993 to 2002. Between 2002 and 2009 Mr. Manley provided marine technology consulting
services, primarily to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) where he was the founding
Chair of the NOAA-wide AUV Working Group; Technology Development for Ocean Exploration, IEEE Xplore,
NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration \\NL]
Working with any Federal agency can be complicated by diverse business practices, varying regulations
and unique agency requirements. NOAA is no different. OE strives to select the best mechanism for
any given technology project. Maximizing the value of each public dollar spent, ensuring fair and
open competition for grants and contracts and producing superior technical output are primary
factors in selecting the mechanisms used. Parties interested in working with OE on technology projects
are always welcome to contact the program to arrange demonstrations, briefings or simply exchange
ideas.
Technical excellence is a core value in the OE program. Strong ties to technology development labs
keep OE's technology program at the cutting edge of ocean engineering. OE works with engineers
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI),
Institute for Exploration (IFE), the Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) and many other leading
institutions.
Defining a role for industry is an important opportunity for NOAA. Ongoing significant
commercial investments in marine technology must be leveraged for ocean exploration. In its
science programs, OE works to apply the latest industrial technology to exploration. One example is
the deployment of a commercially provided ROV, Sonsubs INNOVATOR, on the NOAA Ship Ronald H.
Brown during the 2003 field season, Fig 1. [6]
During 2004, OE contracted with C&C Technology to use their AUV, Hugin, for exploratory geophysical
surveys in the Gulf of Mexico and Straits of Florida. This project, planned for late 2004, will provide
scientists with the same high quality data used by offshore industry. The OE technology program works
to keep industry's best tools in the hands of ocean explorers.
2ACAUVs Solve
AUVs can be used for mapping
Manley 4 [Justin E. NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration. Manley has been working with marine technology
since 1990. He was a principal in the development of unmanned marine vehicles at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology from 1993 to 2002. Between 2002 and 2009 Mr. Manley provided marine technology consulting
services, primarily to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) where he was the founding
Chair of the NOAA-wide AUV Working Group; Multiple AUV Missions in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, 2004 IEEElOES Autonomous Underwater Vehicles \\NL]
***Mapping Neg***
Inherency
1NC FrontlineInherency
US already exploring nowthree projects
BOEM 12Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. [Assessment of in-place gas hydrate resources of
the lower 48 United States Outer Continental Shelf: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Fact Sheet,
2012] // AG
Major Field Programs
In the last decade, significant advances in understanding the distribution, characterization, and
production potential of gas hydrate reservoirs have taken place through the execution of several
successful field programs. BOEM has been an active participant in the U.S. Department of
Energys (DOE) multiphased Gulf of Mexico Gas Hydrate Joint Industry Project (JIP) since it
began in 2001. The JIP recently confirmed the presence of high concentration gas hydrate accumulations
in sand reservoirs at several locations in the GOM during the Leg II drilling and well logging campaign
conducted in 2009. It is anticipated that additional efforts at these sites will include the collection of
pressure cores (returning gas hydrate samples to the surface while maintaining in situ temperature and
pressure conditions), acquisition of multicomponent and high resolution seismic data, and utilization of
borehole methods for short-term production testing.
In the Arctic regions of North America, several advanced field projects are under way to
characterize production potential from gas hydrate reservoirs in a permafrost environment. A joint
effort in 2008 led by Canadian and Japanese researchers at the Mallik well site located in the Mackenzie
Delta, Northwest Territories of Canada, obtained sustained gas flow to the surface from a gas hydrate
reservoir. Under carefully controlled conditions over a six day period, a stepwise reduction in bottomhole
pressure stimulated gas flow rates that averaged 70,000 - 100,000 ft3 per day. At the Mount Elbert well
site in the Milne Point area of the Alaskan North Slope, a joint effort led by BP Alaska Exploration,
DOE, and the USGS completed a gas hydrate test well in 2007. In addition to confirming the validity
of pre-drill seismically-based predictions of gas hydrate occurrence, fluid and reservoir flow-properties
data were obtained through the deployment of a wireline formation testing tool in the well. Additional
phases of this project may include long-term production testing.
A third Arctic project is underway with the Spring 2012 completion of the Ignik Sikumi #1 gas
hydrate field trial well from an ice pad in the Prudhoe Bay Operating Unit on the North Slope of
Alaska. In this production test, a mix of nitrogen and carbon dioxide was injected into the wellbore and
gas flow from a methane hydrate reservoir was established. Overall, the well produced for 30 days during
the 38-day flowback period, with peak rates as high as 175,000 ft3 per day and cumulative gas production
approaching one million standard cubic feet. The CO2 exchange project is a joint effort between DOE
and ConocoPhillips, with additional support from the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation
(JOGMEC).
WASHINGTON Today, U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz announced nearly $5 million in
funding across seven research projects nationwide designed to increase our understanding of
methane hydrates a large, completely untapped natural gas resourceand what it could mean for the
environment, as well as American economic competiveness and energy security.
The recent boom in natural gas production - in part due to long-term Energy Department investments
beginning in the 70s and 80s - has had a transformative impact on our energy landscape, helping to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support thousands of American jobs, said Secretary Moniz.
While our research into methane hydrates is still in its early stages, these investments will increase
our understanding of this domestic resource and the potential to safely and sustainably unlock the
natural gas held within.
Methane hydrates are ice-like structures with natural gas locked inside, which can be found both onshore
and offshore including under the Arctic permafrost and in ocean sediments along nearly every
continental shelf in the world. The substance looks remarkably like white ice, but it does not behave like
ice. When methane hydrates are melted, or exposed to pressure and temperature conditions outside
those where the formations are stable, the solid crystalline lattice turns to liquid water, and the enclosed
methane molecules are released as gas. In May 2012, the Energy Department, alongside our Japanese
partners, announced a successful field trial of methane hydrate production technologies on Alaskas North
Slope.
Managed by the Energy Departments National Energy Technology Laboratory, the new projects
announced today will build on that success by researching alternative methods of extraction and
the potential for commercialization, as well as the environmental impact of natural gas extraction
from hydrate formations.
Status Quo Research and Development of United States methane hydrates deposits
solves
DOE 13Energy Department Expands Research into Methane Hydrates, a Vast, Untapped Potential
Energy Resource of the U.S. The United States Department of Energy, November 20, 2013
http://energy.gov/articles/energy-department-expands-research-methane-hydrates-vast-untappedpotential-energy-resource
WASHINGTON Today,
hydrates a large, completely untapped natural gas resourceand what it could mean for the environment, as well
as American economic competiveness and energy security. The recent boom in natural gas production - in part due to
long-term Energy Department investments beginning in the 70s and 80s - has had a transformative impact on our energy landscape, helping to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support thousands of American jobs, said Secretary Moniz. While
May
2012, the Energy Department, alongside our Japanese partners, announced a successful field trial
of methane hydrate production technologies on Alaskas North Slope. Managed by the Energy Departments
National Energy Technology Laboratory, the new projects announced today will build on that success by researching alternative methods of
extraction and the potential for commercialization, as well as the environmental impact of natural gas extraction from hydrate formations. Project
collect never-before-acquired data to evaluate resource recovery, seafloor stability, and gas hydrate responses to environmental changes. DOE
Investment: approximately $480,000 The University of Texas at Austin (Austin, TX) The
project will provide a powerful new modeling tool to optimize future hydrate production-related testing and to provide a higher understanding of
how hydrate systems react to induced or natural changes in their environment. DOE Investment: approximately $390,000 Oregon State
University (Corvallis, OR) Oregon
will work with the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of New Hampshire
on the project. Study results should provide insights into conditions controlling methane bubble
formation and fate, enhance the understanding of seafloor methane release relative to gas hydrate
stability, and provide new information on an area of high interest for gas hydrate exploration. DOE
Investment: approximately $900,000 University of Washington (Seattle, WA) The University of Washington will study
the effects of contemporary warming of bottom water temperatures on gas hydrate stability along
the Washington Marginthe boundary between two continental plates. This study will be one of the first
programs (outside the Arctic) focused on the response of a gas hydrate system located at the upper edge of the gas hydrate stability zone to
environmental changes. The project will provide a geochemical evaluation of the origin of methane emissions and a quantitative estimate of
methane flux and oxidation rates from the sediments, through the water column, and to the atmosphere. DOE Investment: approximately
$630,000 University of Oregon (Portland, OR) The University of Oregon plans to develop predictive models to enhance our understanding of
how hydrates develop, environmental forces that cause them to dissociate and disrupt sedimentary structure, and better forecasting of hydrate
associated slope failure, gas escape features, and the release of methane into the water column and potentially the atmosphere. DOE Investment:
approximately $280,000
Kennett, L.D. Stott, Abrupt deep-sea warming, paleoceanographic changes and benthic extinctions at the end of the Paleocene, Nature 353 (1991)
225228.]) and rise
in the depth of the CCD (N2 km; [J.C. Zachos, U. Rohl, S.A. Schellenberg, D. Hodell, E. Thomas, A. Sluijs, C.
Kelly, H. McCarren, D. Kroon, I. Raffi, L.J. Lourens, M. Nicolo, Rapid acidification of the ocean during the PaleoceneEocene
Thermal Maximum, Science 308 (2005) 16111615.]) indicate that the size of the carbon addition was larger than can be
accounted for by the methane hydrate hypothesis . Additional carbon sources associated with
methane hydrate release (e.g. pore-water venting and turbidite oxidation) are also insufficient. We find that the
oxidation of at least 5000 Gt C of organic carbon is the most likely explanation for the observed
geochemical and climatic changes during the PETM, for which there are several potential mechanisms. Production
of thermogenic CH4 and CO2 during contact metamorphism associated with the intrusion of a
large igneous province into organic rich sediments [H. Svensen, S. Planke, A. Malthe-Sorenssen, B. Jamtveit, R.
Myklebust, T.R. Eidem, S.S. Rey, Release of methane from a volcanic basin as a mechanism for initial Eocene global warming, Nature 429
(2004).] is
capable of supplying large amounts of carbon, but is inconsistent with the lack of extensive carbon loss in
global conflagration of
Paleocene peatlands [A.C. Kurtz, L.R. Kump, M.A. Arthur, J.C. Zachos, A. Paytan, Early Cenozoic decoupling of the global
carbon and sulfur cycles, Paleoceanography 18 (2003).] highlights a large terrestrial carbon source, but massive
metamorphosed sediments, as well as the abrupt onset and termination of carbon release during the PETM. A
carbon release by fire seems unlikely as it would require that all peatlands burn at once and then for only 10 to 30 ky. In addition, this hypothesis
requires an order of magnitude increase in the amount of carbon stored in peat. The
over a timescale of thousands of years, the climate impact from the accumulating CO2
concentration may exceed that from the steady-state increase in the methane concentration (Archer
and Buffett, 2005), see also Harvey and Huang (1995) and Schmidt and Shindell (2003). After the
emission stops, methane drops quickly to a lower steady state, while the CO2 persists (Schmidt and
Shindell, 2003).
If hydrates melt in the ocean, much of the methane would probably be oxidized in the ocean rather
than reaching the atmosphere directly as methane. This reduces the century-timescale climate
impact of melting hydrate, but on timescales of millennia and longer the climate impact is the same
regardless of where the methane is oxidized. Methane oxidized to CO2 in the ocean will equilibrate with
the atmosphere within a few hundred years, resulting in the same partitioning of the added CO2 between
the atmosphere and the ocean regardless of its origin.
The total amount of methane as ocean hydrates is poorly constrained but could rival the rest of the
fossil fuels combined. Most of this is unattractive to extract for fuel, and mostly so deep in the sediment column that it would take
thousands of years for anthropogenic warming to reach them. The Arctic is special in that the water column is colder
than the global average, and so hydrate can be found as shallow as 200 meters water depth.
On land, there is lots of methane in the thawing Arctic, exploding lakes and what not. This methane is
probably produced by decomposition of thawing organic matter. Methane could only freeze into hydrate
at depths below a few hundred meters in the soil, and then only at lithostatic pressure rather than
hydrostatic, meaning that the hydrate would have to be sealed from the atmosphere by some
impermeable layer. The great gas reservoirs in Siberia are thought to be in part frozen, but evidence for
hydrate within the permafrost soils is pretty thin (Dallimore and Collett,1995)
Is methane escaping due to global warming?
There have been observations of bubbles emanating from the sea floor in the Arctic (Shakhova, 2010; Shakhova et al., 2005) and off Norway
(Westbrook, 2009). The Norwegian bubble plume coincides with the edge of the hydrate stability zone, where a bit of warming could push the
surface sediments from stable to unstable.
even if we knew how much of the last 30 years of ocean warming in that location came from
human activity.
Lakes provide an escape path for the methane by creating thaw bulbs in the underlying soil, and lakes
are everywhere appearing and disappearing in the Arctic as the permafrost melts. (Whether you get CO2
or a mixture of CO2 plus methane depends critically on water, so lakes are important for that reason also.)
So far there hasnt been strong evidence presented for detection enhanced methane fluxes due to
anthropogenic warming yet. Yet it is certainly believable for the coming century however, which brings us to the next question:
What effect would a methane release have on climate?
The climate impact of releasing methane depends on whether it is released all at once, faster than its
lifetime in the atmosphere (about a decade) or in an ongoing, sustained release that lasts for longer than
that.
When methane is released chronically, over decades, the concentration in the atmosphere will rise
to a new equilibrium value. It wont keep rising indefinitely, like CO2 would, because methane
degrades while CO2 essentially just accumulates. Methane degrades into CO2, in fact, so in simulations I did (Archer and
Buffett, 2005) the radiative forcing from the elevated methane concentration throughout a long release was about matched by the radiative
forcing from the extra CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere from the methane as a carbon source. In the figure below, the dashed lines are from a
simulation of a fossil fuel CO2 release, and the solid lines are the same model but with an added methane hydrate feedback. The radiative forcing
from the methane combines the CH4 itself which only persists during the time of the methane release, plus the added CO2 in the atmosphere,
which persists throughout the simulation of 100,000 years.
The possibility of a catastrophic release is of course what gives methane its power over the imagination
(of journalists in particular it seems). A submarine landslide might release a Gigaton of carbon as
methane (Archer, 2007), but the radiative effect of that would be small, about equal in magnitude (but
opposite in sign) to the radiative forcing from a volcanic eruption. Detectable perhaps but probably not
the end of humankind as a species.
What could happen to methane in the Arctic?
The methane bubbles coming from the Siberian shelf are part of a system that takes centuries to
respond to changes in temperature. The methane from the Arctic lakes is also potentially part of a new, enhanced, chronic
methane release to the atmosphere. Neither of them could release a catastrophic amount of methane (hundreds of
Gtons) within a short time frame (a few years or less). There isnt some huge bubble of methane waiting to erupt as
soon as its roof melts.
And so far, the sources of methane from high latitudes are small, relative to the big player, which is
wetlands in warmer climes. It is very difficult to know whether the bubbles are a brand-new methane
source caused by global warming, or a response to warming that has happened over the past 100 years, or
whether plumes like this happen all the time. In any event, it doesnt matter very much unless they get 10
or 100 times larger, because high-latitude sources are small compared to the tropics.
Methane as past killing agent?
Mass extinctions like the end-Permean and the PETM do typically leave tantalizing spikes in the carbon isotopic records preserved in limestones
and organic carbon. Methane has an isotopic signature, so any methane hijinks would be recorded in the carbon isotopic record, but so would
changes in the size of the living biosphere, soil carbon pools such as peat, and dissolved organic carbon in the ocean. The
end-Permean
extinction is particularly mysterious, and my impression is that the killing mechanism for that is
still up for grabs. Methane is also one of the usual suspects for the PETM, which consisted of about 100,000 years of isotopically light
carbon, which is thought to be due to release of some biologically-produced carbon source, similar to the way that fossil fuel CO2 is lightening
the carbon isotopes of the atmosphere today, in concert with really warm temperatures. I personally believe that the
combination of the
carbon isotopes and the paleotemperatures pretty much rules out methane as the original carbon
source (Pagani et al., 2006), although Gavin draws an opposite conclusion, which we may hash out in some future post. In any case, the
100,000-year duration of the warming means that the greenhouse agent through most of the event was CO2, not methane.
set up a
model of the methane runaway greenhouse effect scenario, in which the methane hydrate inventory
in the ocean responds to changing ocean temperature on some time scale, and the temperature
responds to greenhouse gas concentrations in the air with another time scale (of about a millennium) (Archer
and Buffett, 2005). If the hydrates released too much carbon, say two carbons from hydrates for every one carbon from fossil fuels, on a time
scale that was too fast (say 1000 years instead of 10,000 years), the system could run away in the CO2 greenhouse mode described above. It
wouldnt matter too much if the carbon reached the atmosphere as methane or if it just oxidized to CO2 in the ocean and then partially degassed
into the atmosphere a few centuries later.
The fact that the ice core records do not seem full of methane spikes due to high-latitude sources
makes it seem like the real world is not as sensitive as we were able to set the model up to be. This is
where my guess about a worst-case 1000 Gton from hydrates after 2000 Gton C from fossil fuels in the last paragraph comes from.
On the other hand, the deep ocean could ultimately (after a thousand years or so) warm up by several degrees in a business-as-usual scenario,
which would make it warmer than it has been in millions of years. Since it takes millions of years to grow the hydrates, they have had time to
grow in response to Earths relative cold of the past 10 million years or so. Also, the climate forcing from CO2 release is stronger now than it was
millions of years ago when CO2 levels were higher, because of the band saturation effect of CO2 as a greenhouse gas. In short, if there was ever a
good time to provoke a hydrate meltdown it would be now. But now
Actually, releasing CO2 is a point of no return if anything is. The only way back to a natural climate in
anything like our lifetimes would be to anthropogenically extract CO2 from the atmosphere. The CO2
that has been absorbed into the oceans would degas back to the atmosphere to some extent, so wed have
to clean that up too. And if hydrates or peats contributed some extra carbon into the mix, that would also
have to be part of the bargain, like paying interest on a loan.
Conclusion
Its the CO2, friend.
2NCEnergy Fails
Energy from MHs wont be ready until 2050
Boswell 11PhD in Geology from West Virginia University and Technology Manger for Methane
Hydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory for the DOE. [Paper #1-11 METHANE
HYDRATES, Ray Boswell, Prepared for the Resource and Supply Task Group, Working Document of
the North American Resource Development Study, 2011, accessed through Emory] // AG
At the low end, it may be the case that gas hydrate recoverability will be limited through 2050 to
the most favorable permafrost-associated locations, due to geomechanical and other well
maintenance complications that are costly to manage, unacceptable environmental impacts related
to poor seal integrity, or lack of supporting regulation in the offshore. The resource associated with
the most favorable permafrost-associated locations (both onshore and offshore Alaska) is likely on the
scale of several tens of Tcf. Contribution of these resources to meeting demand outside various local
Alaska North Slope uses presupposes the development of gas delivery infrastructure to the Lower-48.
2NCSquo Solves
Status Quo Research and Development of United States methane hydrates deposits
solves
DOE 1311/20/13 Energy Department Expands Research into Methane Hydrates, a Vast, Untapped
Potential Energy Resource of the U.S. The United States Department of Energy, November 20, 2013
http://energy.gov/articles/energy-department-expands-research-methane-hydrates-vast-untappedpotential-energy-resource
WASHINGTON Today,
May
2012, the Energy Department, alongside our Japanese partners, announced a successful field trial
of methane hydrate production technologies on Alaskas North Slope. Managed by the Energy Departments
National Energy Technology Laboratory, the new projects announced today will build on that success by researching alternative methods of
extraction and the potential for commercialization, as well as the environmental impact of natural gas extraction from hydrate formations. Project
collect never-before-acquired data to evaluate resource recovery, seafloor stability, and gas hydrate responses to environmental changes. DOE
Investment: approximately $480,000 The University of Texas at Austin (Austin, TX) The
project will provide a powerful new modeling tool to optimize future hydrate production-related testing and to provide a higher understanding of
how hydrate systems react to induced or natural changes in their environment. DOE Investment: approximately $390,000 Oregon State
University (Corvallis, OR) Oregon
will work with the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of New Hampshire
on the project. Study results should provide insights into conditions controlling methane bubble
formation and fate, enhance the understanding of seafloor methane release relative to gas hydrate
stability, and provide new information on an area of high interest for gas hydrate exploration. DOE
Investment: approximately $900,000 University of Washington (Seattle, WA) The University of Washington will study
the effects of contemporary warming of bottom water temperatures on gas hydrate stability along
the Washington Marginthe boundary between two continental plates. This study will be one of the first
programs (outside the Arctic) focused on the response of a gas hydrate system located at the upper edge of the gas hydrate stability zone to
environmental changes. The project will provide a geochemical evaluation of the origin of methane emissions and a quantitative estimate of
methane flux and oxidation rates from the sediments, through the water column, and to the atmosphere. DOE Investment: approximately
$630,000 University of Oregon (Portland, OR) The University of Oregon plans to develop predictive models to enhance our understanding of
how hydrates develop, environmental forces that cause them to dissociate and disrupt sedimentary structure, and better forecasting of hydrate
associated slope failure, gas escape features, and the release of methane into the water column and potentially the atmosphere. DOE Investment:
approximately $280,000
these efforts are paying off, Carlton Carroll, a spokesman for the American Petroleum Institute, which
lobbies for oil and gas companies in Washington, wrote in an email. Given that producers are
voluntarily reducing methane emissions, additional regulations are not necessary. Fridays report is
one of a series of closely watched and sometimes hotly disputed studies on the environmental impacts of
natural gas production. Natural gas producers celebrated a September report published in The Proceedings
of the Natural Academies of Science that concluded that methane leaks from hydraulic fracturing sites
are, on average, at or lower than levels set by the E.P.A. However, that study also found that on some
fracking rigs, valves allow methane to escape at levels 30 percent higher than those set by E.P.A.
The authors of Fridays study say that despite the good news in that report, methane appears to be
leaking elsewhere in the natural gas supply, production and transportation chain. For example, the
authors said, methane could be leaking from facilities where natural gas is stored, compressed or
transported.
that It could prove impossible to keep global warming below the goal of 2C. So we are now
willingly exploiting a new resource of carbon, knowing it will lead to climate chaos. That seems
madness to me.
Department of
Energy meeting summary: "Alternatively, an undersea earthquake today, say off the Blake Ridge
or the coast of Japan or California might loosen and cause some of the sediment to slide down the
ridge or slump, exposing the hydrate layer to the warmer water. That in turn could cause a chain
reaction of events, leading to the release of massive quantities of methane. Another possibility is
drilling and other activities related to exploration and recovery of methane hydrates as an energy
resource. The hydrates tend to occur in the pores of sediment and help to bind it together.
Attempting to remove the hydrates may cause the sediment to collapse and release the hydrates. So,
it may not take thousands of years to warm the ocean and the sediments enough to cause massive
releases, only lots of drilling rigs. Returning to the 4 GtC release scenario, assume such a release
occurs over a one-year period sometime in the next 50 years as result of slope failure. According to the
Report of the Methane Hydrate Advisory Committee, Catastrophic slope failure appears to be necessary to release a
sufficiently large quantity of methane rapidly enough to be transported to the atmosphere without
significant oxidation or dissolution. In this event, methane will enter the atmosphere as methane
gas. It will have a residence time of several decades and a global warming potential of 62 times that
of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. This would be the equivalent of 248 GtC as carbon dioxide or 31 times the annual
man-made GHG emissions of today. Put another way, this would have the impact of nearly 30 years worth of GHG
warming all at once. The result would almost certainly be a rapid rise in the average air temperature, perhaps as much as 3F
immediately. This might be tolerable if thats as far as things go. But, just like 15,000 years ago, if the feedback mechanisms
kick in, we can expect rapid melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice and an overall temperature
increase of 30F." Since writing the first 3 instalments of this investigative series, the race to drill methane hydrates has
begun in Japan. New Zealand, in a joint venture with Germany, is the next in line to commence. 1 February 2011: "Seabed drilling
exploration for methane hydrate in coastal waters, utilizing a world-class deep sea exploration vessel, is scheduled to start Saturday. In the
planned exploration, the Chikyu is expected to drill 100 meters to 400 meters into the seabed, which lies at a depth of 700 meters to 1,000 meters.
The geological structure of layers surrounding the hydrate, and
are among the subjects to be surveyed. The Chikyu uses state-of-the-art equipment able to drill as deep as 7,000 meters under the
seabed." On 11 March 2011, the world witnessed one of the most powerful earthquakes since 1900, devastating the country of Japan. It has
resulted in anuclear catastrophe still unfolding. Lethal tsunamis followed the earthquake, and were not limited to Japan. A wildlife sanctuary
situated on a tiny atoll near Hawaii lay victim to one such resulting tsunami, wiping out thousands of endangered seabirds and other animals.
Exposure to radiationcontinues to threaten citizens as far away as California. The video below features Dr Helen Caldicott speaking in Montreal,
Canada: UN lies about nuclear threat. Caldicott has been named one of the most influential women of the 20th Century by the Smithsonian
Institute. (Filmed on 18 March 2011: 5:06) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65ptQASTKCk On
methane hydrates on 1 February 2011. Also not widely known, is the fact that the corporation
Petrobras commenced drilling at depths of 3000 metres, off the coast of Aotearoa, into a newly
discovered fault line, around the same time last year that Christchurch started having earthquakes.
The Raukumara Basin of Aotearoa sits on a major and active fault line. The Raukumara Basin, a high seismic activity area, covers 25,000 square
kilometres, extending about 300 kilometres north and around 100 kilometres wide off East Cape in the North Island. Petrobras have been
awarded a permit for 12,330 square kilometres within the basin, extending from four kilometres off the New Zealand coast to 110 kilometres
from the coast. (20 August 2010: Govt's petroleum permit ignored environment) On 24 January 2011, a group of international and New Zealand
scientists drilled directly into South Island's Alpine Fault - a massive fault line to investigate its structure, mechanics and evolution. Vast
quantities of methane hydrates collect along geological fault lines. Japan sits atop a nexus of three of the worlds largest. On 24 February 2011,
15 days prior to Japans devastating earthquake, Dr Elisabetta Mariani, in an interview with BBC was asked if drilling holes in the major 'alpine'
fault running through new Zealand was a good idea. She answered: "As scientists [we can say] ... there is another important drilling going on ...
off shore the east coast of Japan ... and is going well and is successful and has not caused problems which the locals were concerned about so this
is what we told [the New Zealanders] and what we tell you as well." On
Arkansas in 35 years. Is it possible, that either of the massive earthquakes which devastated Japan and New Zealand, can be connected
to invasive deep drilling? As the late Carl Sagan, NASA Distinguished Public Service Medal recipient, has eloquently stated: Absence of
evidence is not evidence of absence. It appears that the recent drilling into the Nankai Trough fault line is not to blame in the case of Japan, as the
fault line which ruptured is said to be different than that of the Tokai area, where the Nankai Trough fault line exists. However, the impact from
the methane hydrate drilling, if it did proceed on 5 February 2011, as planned, is unknown. Methane hydrates, deposited on the seafloor, are
present all along the Pacific coast from Kyushu to the Tokai district .
from Mallik to Nankai Trough: "The primary goal of the symposium will be to provide an overview of recent research achievements by Japan to
characterize methane hydrate in the Nankai Trough area, and by Canada and Japan to quantify the production response of permafrost gas hydrate
in the Mackenzie Delta."
Ira Leifer, researcher at the Marine Science Institute:"The Arctic has enough
buried methane that a one percent release would quadruple global concentrations of atmospheric
methane. That's the equivalent of increasing CO2 by a factor of ten.... It would be pretty close to
the end of civilization as we know it, and this could happen. It doesn't mean it's going to happen but we want people to be
aware [of the possibility]." (In a follow-up communication from Ira Leifer, for clarification, he notes that a factor of 10 has huge uncertainties,
that it would probably be something like that but worse. Methane (CH4) has the same forcing on a 20 year time scale (IPCC, 2007) as CO2, but
does not overlap with water vapor bands, and is not saturated in its absorption bands, unlike CO2, hence increasing factor of 4 to factor of 10.)
Although governments have been targeting a 2C temperature rise which would be cataclysmic today (barring technologies to cool the planet
and remove CO2 from the atmosphere safely) we are absolutely committed to at least a doubling of today's temperature increase (which is 0.8C)
within a few decades. (The Ramanathan and Feng 2008 paper, based on GHG emissions alone (without feedbacks), demonstrates a 2.4C
eventual warming if atmospheric greenhouse gas forcing continues at today's levels: "Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as
envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4C.")
This paper cites a risk range of up to 4.3C as the commitment. All the components for the runaway scenario that James Hansen speaks of are
now operant at 0.8C. Abrupt runaway warming adding an additional 1C per year is a possibility that could start anytime. This understanding
comes from ice core studies of the Younger Dryas abrupt global temperature change event .
increase of the modern atmospheric methane burden with consequent catastrophic greenhouse warming. In 2008,
Shakhova and Semiletov warned that it is "highly possible for abrupt release at any time." These findings represent the closest humanity has ever
approached to a literal doomsday scenario. Venting methane represents the single most catastrophically dangerous effect of global warming to all
life on Earth. In addition to ocean warming, Shakhova is of the belief that there are other factors also contributing to the melting of the hydrates,
for example, the flow from rivers. [22] The
of the methane reacts with the oxygen in the water to form carbon dioxide, another greenhouse gas.
In sea water, this forms carbonic acid, which adds to further ocean acidification. The Arctic ocean
water is acidifying rapidly. Research indicates that 10% of the Arctic Ocean will be corrosively
acidic by 2018; 50% by 2050; and 100% by 2100. In October 2009, Professor Jean-Pierre Gattuso,
of France's Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, said: "Over the whole planet, there will
be a threefold increase in the average acidity of the oceans, which is unprecedented during the past
20 million years." To date, almost none of the Arctic (or anywhere else) has been surveyed in a way
that might detect methane releases like the Svalbard releases. Two things are certain: the two
shelves the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the West Svalbard continental shelf are in motion to
emit a massive amount of methane; and the IPCC has omitted methane feedbacks, the most
dangerous aspect of climate change, from reports and models. Shakhova's studies have been critical in understanding
the dire urgency we have before us. Prior to Shakhova's findings, scientists long feared that this scenario could happen, generating huge positive
feedbacks in the enhanced greenhouse effect from GHG emissions, but assumed methane escaping into the atmosphere was not a possibility for at
least another century. This delay-in-release theory, now proven to be mistaken, was based upon scientists' assumptions and their models with
minimal evidence. This is just one example of why we must stop modelling when we are already acutely aware we are in the greatest emergency
our species has ever faced. Models, based on future predictions (which have already proven to be dangerous, optimistic and incorrect
minimizing our sense of an emergency), enable a society and state governments to deny our current reality, effectively eradicating humanity's
possibility for survival. Sergei Zimov, a scientist studying climate change in Russia's Arctic for 30 years, fears that as the permafrost thaws and as
the organic matter in it becomes exposed to the air, global warming predictions will have to be drastically accelerated, even beyond some of the
most pessimistic forecasts. Zimov: The thawing permafrost "will lead to a type of global warming which will be impossible to stop. The
deposits of organic matter in these soils are so gigantic that they dwarf global oil reserves." Zimov continues: "US government statistics show
mankind emits about 7 billion tons of carbon a year. Permafrost areas hold 500 billion tons of carbon, which can fast turn into greenhouse
gases. If you don't stop emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere ... the Kyoto Protocol (an international pact aimed at reducing
greenhouse emissions) will seem like childish prattle." The video below, filmed in January 2008, shows thin ice overlying the methane seep at
Atqasuk, which is bubbling like boiling water. (2010: 2:43) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KlBev6N5m8&feature=player_embedded It is
critical to reiterate how abrupt shifts in climate can occur in very short timescales. Ice core evidence is key. Greenland ice core records show that
during the last glacial stage (100,000 11,500 years ago) the temperature there alternately warmed and cooled several times by more than 10C.
This was accompanied by major climate change around the northern hemisphere, felt particularly strongly in the North Atlantic region. Each
warm and cold episode took just a few decades to develop. Most of Earth's extinction events have now been linked to extreme climate changes
and for most of these extinction events, methane hydrates have been cited as playing a role. Today, we CAN reduce our CO2 emissions from
fossil fuels, whereas we WILL NOT BE ABLE TO reduce methane emissions once they begin to accelerate once they begin to accelerate from
carbon feedback. Such massive natural forces will take over and change our world and be absolutely out of our control. Such an event will
initially likely result in the melting of the Antarctic icecap, which would raise sea levels by 50 metres, as well as, completely change the climates
of the world. It is therefore beyond obvious that today's 0.8C temperature rise is ALREADY too high to keep the Arctic permafrost safe.
Therefore, in order to avoid the possible catastrophic methane feedback that could be imminent, we must prepare to cool down the planet
immediately, instead of continuing to aim for a deadly 2C target recently revised upwards by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
from a dangerous level to an extremely dangerous level. In the following video titled Methane Hydrates: Natural Hazard or Natural Resource?
(2008 | 53:08) Renowned geochemist Miriam Kastner discusses whether or not methane hydrates are a hazard to climate change. 19:20 into the
video Kastner shows fascinating film footage which clearly demonstrates the extreme instability of hydrates. Ultimately, melting and venting
hydrates will, on our current emissions path, prove to be deadly. Ultimately, drilling hydrates to burn further gas will also prove to be deadly. The
only solution is to declare a planetary state of emergency to stop burning all fossil fuels. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSTm6cZjO14
Compromised Science | Serving the Propaganda Machine "It's difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends upon his not
understanding it." Upton Sinclair The role of scientists in explaining the implications of non-decision is critical, yet scientists have been
remarkably reticent to publicly criticize what they have privately slammed as totally unacceptable and inadequate targets. The few scientists who
are vocal run the risk of being effectively ignored, ridiculed or silenced due to corporate-controlled media and the psychological manipulation of
society. 11 January 2011: In an interview with Dr. Peter Carter, a founding director of the Canadian Association of Physicians for the
Environment,Carter accurately conveys our dire reality: "Tragically, with few noted individual exceptions (such as John Holdren, James Hansen,
Hans Shellnhuber, Kevin Anderson, Andrew Glikson), the climate scientists, and all the science organizations, are sticking to their policy of what
is, in effect, dangerous climate change denial. They avoid talking 'dangerous climate change' or warning of climate catastrophe. To eradicate any
doubt on accelerating climate dangers, climate scientists would have to say and explain how today's unavoidable amount and duration of global
warming, climate disruption, and ocean acidification are now catastrophically dangerous to our survival and to most of life." Carter continues:
"According to Stephen Schneider, 'The
IPCC does not determine risks and does not define what would
constitute dangerous interference with the climate system. The IPCC says that defining the
dangerous climate change is a value judgment that only the policymakers can make.' (The late Stephen
Schneider's website is here and he discusses the issue in this paper.) The scientists in general are sticking to this policy. National and international
climate policy discussions are being based formally on the absurd assumption that dangerous climate interference is still some time in the future
that can still be avoided, so there is no emergency. James Hansen asked the climate scientists to support his 2008 public statement that 'We really
have reached a point of a planetary emergency,' but none have. With no prospect of rapid drastic emissions reductions, we all need to be most
gravely concerned for the future of humanity and all life. We need climate scientists to understand that public and formal silence on the
catastrophic climate change dangers (or risks) to the huge, most-vulnerable human populations, to the future of civilization and to humanity is, in
effect, a powerful value judgement." It is beyond reckless for scientists to continue to insist on, thus wait for, absolute proof. Society must not
accept this. Rather, we must demand action based on the risk of unparalleled magnitude, which embraces the precautionary principle. We
continue to ignore methane in the same way that world governments and scientists continue to ignore the global food security crisis we will face
if temperatures are allowed to further increase. The
and all of our children are in it? All of the climate change assessment projections are based on computer models developed by climate science
modellers. If the models lack reliable data the projections cannot be relied on. All of the model results have wide ranges of uncertainty. The 2007
IPCC Report used the statistical mean of these wide ranges of results, up to the boundary of a 90 percent confidence level. The range is assumed
to achieve practically full scientific certainty, however, a wide range has to mean a high level of uncertainty. This clever playing with numbers
practice is in violation of the precautionary principle (adopted by the UNFCCC in 1992) which affirms that where there is a threat of climate
change, the lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to prevent the threat. Had the IPCC respected
this principle from the adoption and onset, they would have explicitly considered risks of higher temperatures and greater impacts above the
mean, up to and outside the boundary of a 90 percent confidence level. They would have explicitly considered, thus included, dynamical melting
of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, and nonlinear responses to drivers of climate change. This would have provided the world a far more
accurate measure of the climate crisis, a crisis allowed to escalate into the emergency situation that we now find ourselves in today. The Earth's
temperature has increased 0.8C. While CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 34 percent, methane gas concentrations have
skyrocketed increasing a staggering 158 percent. Yet, the scientists essentially disregard methane as a major issue. Couple this with the fact that
methane is 72 to 100 times more heat trapping than CO2 in the short term and the phrase "don't scare the horses" comes to mind. The climate
system turns out to be far more sensitive than the IPCC has assumed for their global temperature projection models and their global climate
change assessment. All of the climate change assessment depends on the value calculated and used for the climate sensitivity. The climate
sensitivity is provided from the results of computer models. All of the models give an immense range - particularly for the upper most sensitive
range. 19 October 2010, Rolf Schuttenhelm: "Climate sensitivity is a term used for the expected atmospheric temperature rise for a doubling of
CO2 concentrations. Combining all the relevant atmospheric research published up to the end of 2004, the IPCC in its 2007 Fourth Assessment
Report (WG1, chapter 2) reached the conclusion climate sensitivity would be between 2 and 4.5 degrees Centigrade, with a 3C rise as best
estimate. World leading climate researchers of NASA (James Hansen) and for instance the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Hans
Joachim Schellnhuber) have since argued true sensitivity could be twice as high when including slow climate feedbacks, like Arctic methane,
deep-sea methane or increased biodegradation of ecosystems, leading to further CO2 emissions, all following an initial (industrial) CO2 induced
temperature rise. These slow feedbacks lead to the runaway warming scenarios with exponential damage. Somewhere over the climate politicsfilled years of 2008 and 2009 the world lost track of the basics of climate science. While the new insights and publications on slow-acting climate
feedbacks were worrisome to many others hoped for comfort in denying the basic triggering factor, the climate effects of high anthropogenic
CO2 emissions, mostly due to the abundant use of fossil fuels. Although the IPCC report clearly mentions fast-acting climate feedbacks, like
water vapour and ice albedo, as important contributors to expected temperature rises, somehow we allowed a flawed focus to develop on the
molecule of CO2 itself. Meanwhile we risk losing focus on the slow climate feedbacks. If new climate research proves the findings (adding slow
feedbacks creates another doubling of warming -> 6 degrees (PDF)) of people like Hansen and Schellnhuber right, then communicators of
climate science should really consider to once again extent the definition of true climate sensitivity or establish a new term that clearly includes
the (long-term) CO2-temperature responses of other Earth systems than solely the atmosphere, like oceans and terrestrial biosphere. " Amongst
the most obvious of climate change facts is that abrupt greenhouse gas heat energy situation is happening today, yet scientists are currently doing
research into the "probability of abrupt climate change." If this is not a complete reflection of our self delusion and denialism I'm not certain
what is. Just consider the well known IPCC 10,000 year graphs of temperature and radiative forcing. The increase in today's temperature, CO2
and methane is a vertical line. This abrupt rate of heating has never happened before indeed we are warming over 10 times faster than the ice
core record, and this is will become 25 times faster by 2100. Greenhouse gas levels now exceed anything seen over the past 800,000 years or
more. Scientists, after telling us for decades we must adapt to a catastrophic 2C, are now producing papers on how we will have to adapt to 4C.
This is modeling madness. By doing this the scientists are exposing humanity to a huge risk of global climate catastrophe. This madness is
effectively preventing any possibility of an emergency climate response. Modelling for future catastrophe, is effectively distracting us from the
climate emergency we face, dead on, today. Further madness has made its presence known. As methane hydrate melting and venting accelerates
securing our path to extinction scientists have now begun to do modelling on the hydrates. Recently, it appears that leading methane scientists,
who have been instrumental in sounding the methane alarm (based on their observations that the warming Arctic is driving the thaw and methane
venting due to anthropogenic climate change), are being pressured by other scientists to provide "absolute proof" that the thaw and venting have
not been occurring for reasons other than human-made warming. If my daughter is pushed off the playground equipment, causing a broken arm
her arm needs a cast. Urgently. It makes no difference who pushed her. Given the unparalleled enormous risks, the precautionary principle should
certainly take precedence. The risk formula can be applied for such a colossal catastrophic impact, even when there is too little data to calculate a
reliable probability. The grim reality coupled with common sense tells us unequivocally that the Arctic temperature is only going one way
upward. Therefore, at some point it will hit the thaw point (if it has not done so already) and no modeling is necessary to understand this simple
fact. "Catastrophic emissions cannot be ruled out." That is a main statement when pouring over scientific papers on methane. It reads like a
disclaimer along with the cautious language of possible, could, and other select language that allows us to continue denying our reality. Today,
the majority of published climate science is all framed to allow the fossil fuel industry to not only survive, but continue growing and globalizing.
When reviewing scientific papers, one cannot find any references that address the absolute necessity of stopping fossil fuel combustion. The most
important component of stabilizing our planet's climate simply is not addressed. It is both revealing and ominous that proponents of the
exploitation, which includes scientists, are suggesting that we now have to extract the methane to make the hydrates safe. Extracting the methane
is unavoidably dangerous as this would depressurize the local environment. The
2NCAlternative Causes
Alt Cause: Livestock emit a considerable portion of global GHGs: Methane, CO2,
Nitrogen
FAO 6 The food and agricultural organization of the United Nations is responsible for examining and
appropriating action related to the aforementioned industries.
<ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf>
Climate change: trends and prospects
Anthropogenic climate change has recently become a well established fact and the resulting impact
on the environment is already being observed. The greenhouse effect is a key mechanism of temperature regulation.
Without it, the average temperature of the earths surface would not be 15C but -6C. The earth returns energy received from the sun back to
space by reflection of light and by emission of heat. A part of the heat flow is absorbed by so-called green- house gases, trapping it in the
atmosphere. The
principal greenhouse gases involved in this process include carbon dioxide (CO 2 ),
methane (CH 4 ) nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and chlorofluorocarbons. Since the beginning of the industrial period
anthropogenic emissions have led to an increase in concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere, resulting in global warming. The average
temperature of the earths surface has risen by 0.6 degrees Celsius since the late 1800s. Recent
credit for reducing greenhouse gas totals by planting or expanding forests (removal units) and for carrying out joint implementation projects
with other developed countries paying for projects that reduce emissions in other industrialized countries. Credits earned this way may be
bought and sold in the emissions market or banked for future use. The Protocol also makes provision for a clean development mechanism,
which allows industrial- ized countries to pay for projects in poorer nations to cut or avoid emissions. They are then awarded credits that can be
applied to meeting their own emissions targets. The recipient countries benefit from free infusions of advanced technology that for example allow
their factories or electrical generat- ing plants to operate more efficiently and hence at lower costs and higher profits. The atmosphere benefits
because future emissions are lower than they would have been otherwise. Source: UNFCCC (2005). 82 Livestocks long shadow general,
intensively managed livestock systems will be easier to adapt to climate change than will crop systems. Pastoral systems may not adapt so
readily. Pastoral communities tend to adopt new methods and technologies more slowly, and livestock depend on the productiv- ity and quality of
rangelands, some of which may be adversely affected by climate change. In addition, extensive livestock systems are more susceptible to changes
in the severity and distri- bution of livestock diseases and parasites, which may result from global warming. As the human origin of the
greenhouse effect became clear, and the gas emitting factors were identified, international mechanisms were cre- ated to help understand and
address the issue. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) started a process of international negotiations in
1992 to specifically address the greenhouse effect. Its objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere within an
ecologically and economically acceptable timeframe. It also encourages research and monitoring of other possible environmental impacts, and of
atmospheric chemistry. Through its legally binding Kyoto Protocol, the UNFCCC focuses on the direct warming impact of the main
anthropogenic emissions (see Box 3.1). This
tonnes of CO 2 per year Nitrogen is essential to plant and animal life. Only a limited number of processes, such as lightning or fixation
by rhizobia, can convert it into reactive form for direct use by plants and animals. This shortage of fixed nitrogen has
historically posed natural limits to food production and hence to human populations. However,
since the third decade of the twentieth century, the Haber-Bosch process has provided a solution.
Using extremely high pressures, plus a catalyst composed mostly of iron and other critical
chemicals, it became the primary procedure responsible for the production of chemical fertilizer.
Today, the process is used to produce about 100 million tonnes of artificial nitrogenous fertilizer
per year. Roughly 1 percent of the worlds energy is used for it (Smith, 2002). As discussed in Chapter 2, a large share of the worlds crop
production is fed to animals, either directly or as agro-industrial by-products. Mineral N fertilizer is applied to much of the corresponding
cropland, especially in the case of high-energy crops such as maize, used in the production of concentrate feed. The
gaseous emissions
caused by fertilizer manufacturing should, therefore, be considered among the emissions for which
the animal food chain is responsible. About 97 percent of nitrogen fertilizers are derived from synthetically produced ammonia
via the Haber-Bosch process. For economic and environmental reasons, natural gas is the fuel of choice in this
manufacturing process today. Natural gas is expected to account for about one-third of global
energy use in 2020, compared with only one-fifth in the mid-1990s (IFA, 2002). The ammonia industry used about 5
percent of natural gas consumption in the mid-1990s. How- ever, ammonia production can use a wide range of energy sources. When oil and gas
supplies eventually dwindle, coal can be used, and coal reserves are sufficient for well over 200 years at current production levels. In fact 60
percent of Chinas nitrogen fertilizer production is currently based on coal (IFA, 2002). China is an atypi- cal case: not only is its N fertilizer
production based on coal, but it is mostly produced in small and medium-sized, relatively energy-inefficient, plants. Here energy consumption per
unit of N can run 20 to 25 percent higher than in plants of more recent design. One study conducted by the Chinese government estimated that
energy consumption per unit of output for small plants was more than 76 percent higher than for large plants (Price et al ., 2000). Before
estimating the CO 2 emissions related to this energy consumption, we should try to quantify the use
of fertilizer in the animal food chain. Combining fertilizer use by crop for the year 1997 (FAO, 2002) with the fraction of these
crops used for feed in major N fertilizer con- suming countries (FAO, 2003) shows that animal production accounts for a very substantial share of
this consumption. Table 3.3 gives examples for selected countries. 4 87 Livestocks role in climate change and air pollution Except for the
Western European countries, production and consumption of chemical fertil- izer is increasing in these countries. This high proportion of N
fertilizer going to animal feed is largely owing to maize, which covers large areas in temperate and tropical climates and demands high doses of
nitrogen fertilizer. More than half of total maize production is used as feed. Very large amounts of N fertilizer are used for maize and other
animal feed, especially in nitrogen deficit areas such as North America, Southeast Asia and Western Europe. In fact maize is the crop highest in
nitrogen fertilizer consumption in 18 of the 66 maize producing countries ana- lysed (FAO, 2002). In 41 of these 66 countries maize is among the
first three crops in terms of nitrogen fertilizer consumption. The projected production of maize in these countries show that its area generally
expands at a rate inferior to that of production, suggesting an enhanced yield, brought about by an increase in fertilizer consumption (FAO, 2003).
Other feedcrops are also important consumers of chemical N fertilizer. Grains like barley and sorghum receive
large amounts of nitrogen fertilizer. Despite the fact that some oil crops are associated with N fixing organisms themselves (see Section 3.3.1),
their intensive production often makes use of nitrogen fertilizer. Such crops predominantly used as animal feed, including rapeseed, soybean and
sunflower, garner considerable amounts of N-fertilizer: 20 percent of Argentinas total N fertilizer consumption is applied to production of such
crops, 110 000 tonnes of N-fertilizer (for soybean alone) in Brazil and over 1.3 million tonnes in China. In addition, in a number of countries
even grasslands receive a considerable amount of N fertilizer. The countries of Table 3.3 together represent the vast majority of the worlds
nitrogen fertil- izer use for feed production, adding a total of about 14 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizer per year into the animal food chain.
When the Com- monwealth of Independent States and Oceania are added, the total rounds to around 20 percent of the annual 80 million tonnes of
N fertilizer consumed worldwide. Adding in the fertilizer use that can be attributed to by-products other than oilcakes, in particular brans, may
well take the total up to some 25 percent. On the basis of these figures, the correspond- ing emission of carbon dioxide can be esti- mated. Energy
requirement in modern natural gas-based systems varies between 33 and 44 gigajoules (GJ) per tonne of ammonia. Tak- ing into consideration
additional energy use in 4 The estimates are based on the assumption of a uniform share of fertilized area in both food and feed production. This
may lead to a conservative estimate, considering the large- scale, intensive production of feedcrops in these countries compared to the significant
contribution of small-scale, low input production to food supply. In addition, it should be noted that these estimates do not consider the
significant use of by-products other than oil cakes (brans, starch rich products, molasses, etc.). These products add to the economic value of the
primary commodity, which is why some of the fertilizer applied to the original crop should be attributed to them. Table 3.3 Chemical fertilizer N
used for feed and pastures in select ed countries Country Share of Absolute tot al N consumption amount (percentage) (1 000 tonnes/year) USA
51 4 697 China 16 2 998 France* 52 1 317 Germany* 62 1 247 Canada 55 897 UK* 70 887 Brazil 40 678 Spain 42 491 Mexico 20 263 Turkey
17 262 Argentina 29 126 * Countries with a considerable amount of N fertilized grassland. Source: Based on FAO (2002; 2003). 88 Livestocks
long shadow packaging, transport and application of fertil- izer (estimated to represent an additional cost of at least 10 percent; Helsel, 1992), an
upper limit of 40 GJ per tonne has been applied here. As mentioned before, energy use in the case of China is considered to be some 25 percent
higher, i.e. 50 GJ per tonne of ammonia. Taking
kilogram of carcass for chicken, 46 MJ for pigs and 51 MJ for beef, of which amounts 80 to 87 percent was spent for production. 5 A large share
of this is in the form of electricity, producing much lower emissions on an energy equivalent basis than the direct use of fossil sources for energy.
The share of electricity is larger for intensive monogastrics production (mainly for heating, cooling and ven- Table 3.4 Co 2 emissions from the
burning of fossil fuel to produce nitrogen fertilizer for feedcrops in selected countries Country Absolute amount Energy use Emission factor
Emitted CO 2 of chemical N fertilizer per tonnes fertilizer (1 000 tonnes N fertilizer) (GJ/tonnes N fertilizer) (tonnes C/TJ) (1 000
tonnes/year) Argentina 126 40 17 314 Brazil 678 40 17 1 690 Mexico 263 40 17 656 Turkey 262 40 17 653 China 2 998 50 26 14 290 Spain 491
40 17 1 224 UK* 887 40 17 2 212 France* 1 317 40 17 3 284 Germany* 1 247 40 17 3 109 Canada 897 40 17 2 237 USA 4 697 40 17
11 711 Total 14 million tonnes 41 million tonnes * i ncludes a considerable amount of N fertilized grassland. Source: FAO (2002;
2003); i PCC (1997). 5 As opposed to post-harvest processing, transportation, stor- age and preparation. Production includes
energy use for feed production and transport. 89 Livestocks role in climate change and air pollution tilation), which though also uses larger
amounts of fossil fuel in feed transportation. However, more than half the energy expenditure during livestock production is for feed production
(near- ly all in the case of intensive beef operations). We have already considered the contribution of fertilizer production to the energy input for
feed: in intensive systems, the combined energy-use for seed and herbicide/pesticide production and fossil fuel for machinery generally exceeds
that for fertilizer production. There are some cases where feed produc- tion does not account for the biggest share of fossil energy use. Dairy
farms are an important example, as illustrated by the case of Minnesota dairy operators. Electricity is their main form of energy use. In contrast,
for major staple crop farmers in the state, diesel is the dominant form of on-farm energy use, resulting in much higher CO 2 emissions (Ryan and
Tiffany, 1998, presenting data for 1995). On this basis, we can suggest that the bulk of Minnesotas on-farm CO 2 emissions from energy use are
also related to feed production, and exceed the emissions associated with N fertilizer use. The average maize fertilizer application (150 kg N per
hectare for maize in the United States) results in emis- sions for Minnesota maize of about one mil- lion tonnes of CO 2 , compared with 1.26
million tonnes of CO 2 from on-farm energy use for corn production (see Table 3.5). At least half the CO 2 emissions of the two dominant
commodities and CO 2 sources in Minnesota (maize and soybean) can be attributed to the (intensive) livestock sec- tor. Taken together, feed
production and pig and dairy operations make the livestock sector by far the largest source of agricultural CO 2 emissions in Minnesota. In the
absence of similar estimates represen- tative of other world regions it remains impos- sible to provide a reliable quantification of the global CO 2
emissions that can be attributed to on farm fossil fuel-use by the livestock sector. The energy intensity of production as well as the source of this
energy vary widely. A rough indica- tion of the fossil fuel use related emissions from intensive systems can, nevertheless, be obtained by
supposing that the expected lower energy need for feed production at lower latitudes (lower energy need for corn drying for example) and the
Table 3.5 On-farm energy use for agriculture in Minnesota, United States Commodity Minnesota Crop area Diesel LPG Electricity Directly
ranking (10 3 km 2 ) (1 000 m 3 ~ (1 000 m 3 ~ (10 6 kWh ~ emitted within USA head (10 6 ) 2.6510 3 2.3010 3 288 CO 2 tonnes (10 6 )
tonnes CO 2 ) tonnes CO 2 ) tonnes CO 2 ) (10 3 tonnes) Corn 4 27.1 238 242 235 1 255 Soybeans 3 23.5 166 16 160 523 w heat 3 9.1 62 6.8 67
199 Dairy (tonnes) 5 4.3 * 47 38 367 318 Swine 3 4.85 59 23 230 275 Beef 12 0.95 17 6 46 72 Turkeys (tonnes) 2 40 14 76 50 226 Sugar beets 1
1.7 46 6 45 149 Sweet corn/peas 1 0.9 9 5 25 Note: r eported nine commodities dominate Minnesotas agricultural output and, by extension, the
states agricultural energy use. r elated CO 2 emissions based on efficiency and emission factors from the United States Common r eporting
Format report submitted to the UNFCCC in 2005. Source: r yan and Tiffany (1998). 90 Livestocks long shadow elsewhere, often lower level of
mechanization, are overall compensated by a lower energy use efficiency and a lower share of relatively low CO 2 emitting sources (natural gas
and electricity). Minnesota figures can then be combined with global feed production and livestock populations in intensive systems. The
resulting estimate for maize only is of a magnitude similar to the emis- sions from manufacturing N fertilizer for use on feedcrops. As
a
conservative estimate, we may suggest that CO 2 emissions induced by on-farm fossil fuel use for
feed production may be 50 percent higher than that from feed-dedicated N fertilizer production, i.e.
some 60 million tonnes CO 2 globally. To this we must add farm emissions related directly to
livestock rearing, which we may estimate at roughly 30 million tonnes of CO 2 (this figure is derived by
applying Minnesotas figures to the global total of intensively-man- aged livestock populations, assuming that lower energy use for heating at
lower latitudes is counterbalanced by lower energy efficiency and higher ventilation requirements). On-farm
annual crops or pasture, and so when forests are harvested, or worse, burned, large amounts of
carbon are released from the veg- etation and soil to the atmosphere. The net reduction in carbon
stocks is not simply equal to the net CO 2 flux from the cleared area. Reality is more complex:
forest clearing can produce a complex pattern of net fluxes that change direc- tion over time (IPCC
guidelines). The calculation of carbon fluxes owing to forest conversion is, in many ways, the most
complex of the emissions inventory components. Estimates of emissions from forest clearing vary
because of multiple uncertainties: annual forest clearing rates, the fate of the cleared land, the
amounts of carbon contained in different ecosystems, the modes by which CO 2 is released (e.g.,
burning or decay), Example of deforestation and shifting cultivation on steep hillside. Destruction
of forests causes disastrous soil erosion in a few years Thailand 1979 FAO/10460/F. B OTTS 91
Livestocks role in climate change and air pollution and the amounts of carbon released from soils
when they are disturbed. Responses of biological systems vary over different time-scales. For
example, biomass burning occurs within less than one year, while the decomposition of wood may
take a decade, and loss of soil carbon may continue for several decades or even centuries. The IPCC
(2001b) estimated the average annual flux owing to tropical deforestation for the decade 1980 to
1989 at 1.61.0 billion tonnes C as CO 2 (CO 2 -C). Only about 5060 percent of the carbon
released from forest conversion in any one year was a result of the conversion and subsequent
biomass burning in that year. The remainder were delayed emissions resulting from oxidation of biomass har- vested in previous
years (Houghton, 1991). Clearly, estimating CO 2 emissions from land use and land-use change is far less straightfor- ward than those related to
fossil fuel combus- tion. It is even more difficult to attribute these emissions to a particular production sector such as livestock. However,
livestocks role in defores- tation is of proven importance in Latin America, the continent suffering the largest net loss of forests and resulting
carbon fluxes. In Chapter 2 Latin America was identified as the region where expansion of pasture and arable land for feedcrops is strongest,
mostly at the expense of forest area. The LEAD study by Wassenaar et al ., (2006) and Chapter 2 showed that most of the cleared area ends up as
pasture and identified large areas where livestock ranching is probably a primary motive for clearing. Even if these final land uses were only one
reason among many others that led to the forest clearing, animal pro- duction is certainly one of the driving forces of deforestation. The
conversion of forest into pas- ture releases considerable amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, particularly when the area is not logged but
simply burned. Cleared patches may go through several changes of land-use type. Over the 20002010 period, the pasture areas in Latin America
are projected to expand int o forest by an annual average of 2.4 million hectares equivalent to some 65 percent of expected deforestation. If we
also assume that at least half the cropland expansion into forest in Bolivia and Brazil can be attributed to provid- ing feed for the livestock sector,
this results in an additional annual deforestation for livestock of over 0.5 million hectares giving a total for pastures plus feedcrop land, of some
3 million hectares per year. In view of this, and of worldwide trends in extensive livestock production and in cropland for feed production
we can realisti- cally estimate that livestock induced emissions from deforestation
amount to roughly 2.4 billion tonnes of CO 2 per year. This is based on the somewhat simplified assumption that forests
(Chapter 2),
are completely converted into climatically equiva- lent grasslands and croplands (IPCC 2001b, p. 192), combining changes in carbon density of
both vegetation and soil 6 in the year of change. Though physically incorrect (it takes well over a year to reach this new status because of the
inherited, i.e. delayed emissions) the result- ing emission estimate is correct provided the change process is continuous. Other possibly
important, but un-quantified, livestock-related deforestation as reported from for example Argentina (see Box 5.5 in Section 5.3.3) is excluded
from this estimate. In addition to producing CO 2 emissions, the land conversion may also negatively affect other emissions. Mosier et al . (2004)
for example noted that upon conversion of forest to grazing land, CH 4 oxidation by soil micro-organisms is typically greatly reduced and grazing
lands may even become net sources in situations where soil compaction from cattle traffic limits gas diffusion. 6 The most recent estimates
provided by this source are 194 and 122 tonnes of carbon per hectare in tropical forest, respectively for plants and soil, as opposed to 29 and 90
for tropical grassland and 3 and 122 for cropland. 92 Livestocks long shadow Livestock-related releases from cultivated soils may total 28
million tonnes CO 2 per year Soils are the largest carbon reservoir of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The estimated total a m ount of carbon stored in
soils is about 1 100 to 1 600 billion tonnes (Sundquist, 1993), more than twice the carbon in living vegetation (560 billion tonnes) or in the
atmosphere (750 billion tonnes). Hence even relatively small changes in carbon stored in the soil could make a significant impact on the global
carbon balance (Rice, 1999). Carbon stored in soils is the balance between the input of dead plant material and losses due to decomposition and
mineralization processes. Under aerobic conditions, most of the carbon entering the soil is unstable and therefore quick- ly respired back to the
atmosphere. Generally, less than 1 percent of the 55 billion tonnes of C entering the soil each year accumulates in more stable fractions with long
mean residence times. Human disturbance can speed up decomposi- tion and mineralization. On the North American Great Plains, it has been
estimated that approxi- mately 50 percent of the soil organic carbon has been lost over the past 50 to 100 years of culti- vation, through burning,
volatilization, erosion, harvest or grazing (SCOPE 21, 1982). Similar losses have taken place in less than ten years after deforestation in tropical
areas (Nye and Greenland, 1964). Most of these losses occur at the original conversion of natural cover into managed land. Further soil carbon
losses can be induced by management practices. Under appropriate management practices (such as zero tillage) agricultural soils can serve as a
carbon sink and may increasingly do so in future (see Section 3.5.1). Currently, however, their role as carbon sinks is globally insignificant. As
described in Chapter 2, a very large share of the production of coarse grains and oil crops in temperate regions is destined for feed use. The vast
majority of the corresponding area is under large-scale intensive management, dominated by conventional tillage practices that gradually lower
the soil organic carbon content and produce significant CO 2 emissions. Given the complexity of emissions from land use and land- use changes,
it is not possible to make a global estimation at an acceptable level of precision. Order-of-magnitude indications can be made by using an average
loss rate from soil in a rather temperate climate with moderate to low organic matter content that is somewhere between the loss rate reported for
zero and conventional till- age: Assuming
Another way livestock contributes to gas emis- sions from cropland is through
methane emis- sions from rice cultivation, globally recognized as an important source of methane.
Much of the methane emissions from rice fields are of animal origin, because the soil bacteria are to a large extent fed with animal manure, an
important fertilizer source (Verburg, Hugo and van der Gon, 2001). Together with the type of flooding management, the type of fertilization is
the most important factor controlling methane emissions from rice cultivated areas. Organic fertilizers lead to higher emissions than mineral
fertilizers. Khalil and Shearer (2005) argue that over the last two decades China achieved a substantial reduc- tion of annual methane emissions
from rice cultivation from some 30 million tonnes per year to perhaps less than 10 million tonnes per year mainly by replacing organic
fertilizer with nitrogen-based fertilizers. However, this change can affect other gaseous emissions in the oppo- site way. As nitrous oxide
emissions from rice fields increase, when artificial N fertilizers are used, as do carbon dioxide emissions from Chi- nas flourishing charcoalbased nitrogen fertil- izer industry (see preceding section). Given that it is impossible to provide even a rough estimate of livestocks contribution
to methane emissions from rice cultivation, this is not further consid- ered in the global quantification. Releases from livestock-induced
desertification of pastures may total 100 million tonnes CO 2 per year Livestock also play a role in desertification (see Chapters 2 and 4).
Where desertification is occurring, degradation often results in reduced productivity or reduced vegetation cover, which produce a change in the
carbon and nutrient stocks and cycling of the system. This seems to result in a small reduction in aboveground C stocks and a slight decline in C
fixation. Despite the small, sometimes undetectable changes in aboveground biomass, total soil carbon usu- ally declines. A recent study by
Asner, Borghi and Ojeda, (2003) in Argentina also found that desertification resulted in little change in woody cover, but there was a 25 to 80
percent decline in soil organic carbon in areas with long-term grazing. Soil erosion accounts for part of this loss, but the majority stems from the
non- renewal of decaying organic matter stocks, i.e. there is a significant net emission of CO 2 . Lal (2001) estimated the carbon loss as a r esult
of desertification.
Usually, savannah burning is not considered to result in net CO 2 emissions, since emitted amounts of carbon dioxide released in burning are recap- tured in grass re-growth. As well as CO 2 , biomass burning releases important amounts of other glob- ally relevant trace gases (NO x , CO,
and CH 4 ) and aerosols (Crutzen and Andreae, 1990; Scholes and Andreae, 2000). Climate effects include the forma- tion of photochemical
smog, hydrocarbons, and NO x . Many of the emitted elements lead to the pro- duction of tropospheric ozone (Vet, 1995; Crutzen and
Goldammer, 1993), which is another important greenhouse gas influencing the atmospheres oxi- dizing capacity, while bromine, released in significant amounts from savannah fires, decreases stratospheric ozone (Vet, 1995; ADB, 2001). Smoke plumes may be redistributed locally,
transported throughout the lower troposphere, or entrained in large-scale circulation patterns in the mid and upper troposphere. Often fires in
convection areas take the elements high into the atmosphere, creating increased potential for cli- mate change. Satellite observations have found
large areas with high O 3 and CO levels over Africa, South America and the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans (Thompson et al ., 2001).
Aerosols produced by the burning of pasture biomass dominate the atmospheric concentra- tion of aerosols over the Amazon basin and Africa
(Scholes and Andreae, 2000; Artaxo et al ., 2002). Concentrations of aerosol particles are highly sea- sonal. An obvious peak in the dry (burning)
season, which contributes to cooling both through increas- ing atmospheric scattering of incoming light and the supply of cloud condensation
nuclei. High con- centrations of cloud condensation nuclei from the burning of biomass stimulate rainfall production and affect large-scale
climate dynamics (Andreae and Crutzen, 1997). h unter set fire to forest areas to drive out a species of rodent that will be killed for food. h
erdsmen and hunters together benefit from the results. FAO/14185/ r . F A i DUTT i 95 Livestocks role in climate change and air pollution
warming may also accelerate decomposition of carbon already stored in soils (Jenkinson,1991; MacDonald, Randlett and Zalc, 1999; Niklinska,
Maryanski and Laskowski, 1999; Scholes et al ., 1999). Although much work remains to be done in quantifying the CO 2 fertilization effect in
crop- land, van Ginkel, Whitmore and Gorissen, (1999) estimate the magnitude of this effect (at current rates of increase of CO 2 in the
atmosphere) at a net absorption of 0.036 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year in temperate grassland, even after the effect of rising temperature
on decom- position is deducted. Recent research indicates that the magnitude of the temperature rise on the acceleration of decay may be
stronger, with already very significant net losses over the last decades in temperate regions (Bellamy et al ., 2005; Schulze and Freibauer, 2005).
Both sce- narios may prove true, resulting in a shift of car- bon from soils to vegetation i.e. a shift towards more fragile ecosystems, as found
currently in more tropical regions 3.3 Livestock in the nitrogen cycle Nitrogen is an essential element for life and plays a central role in the
organization and func- tioning of the worlds ecosystems. In many ter- restrial and aquatic ecosystems, the availability of nitrogen is a key factor
determining the nature and diversity of plant life, the population dynam- ics of both grazing animals and their predators, and vital ecological
processes such as plant productivity and the cycling of carbon and soil minerals (Vitousek et al ., 1997). The natural carbon cycle is characterized
by Table 3.10 Energy use for processing agricultural products in Minnesota, in United States in 1995 Commodity Production 1 Diesel Natural gas
Electricity Emitted CO 2 (10 6 tonnes) (1000 m 3 ) (10 6 m 3 ) (10 6 kWh) (10 3 tonnes) Corn 22.2 41 54 48 226 Soybeans 6.4 23 278 196 648 w
heat 2.7 19 125 86 Dairy 4.3 36 207 162 537 Swine 0.9 7 21 75 80 Beef 0.7 2.5 15 55 51 Turkeys 0.4 1.8 10 36 34 Sugar beets 2 7.4 19 125 68
309 Sweet corn/peas 1.0 6 8 29 40 1 Commodities: unshelled corn ears, milk, live animal weight. 51 percent of milk is made into cheese, 35
percent is dried, and 14 percent is used as liquid for bottling. 2 Beet processing required an additional 440 thousand tonnes of coal. 1 000 m 3
diesel ~ 2.65 10 3 tonnes CO 2 ; 10 6 m 3 natural gas ~ 1.91 10 3 tonnes CO 2 ; 10 6 k w h ~ 288 tonnes CO 2 Source: r yan and Tiffany
(1998). See also table 3.5. r elated CO 2 emissions based on efficiency and emission factors from the United States Common r eporting Format
report submitted to the UNFCCC in 2005. 102 Livestocks long shadow large fossil terrestrial and aquatic pools, and an atmospheric form that is
easily assimilated by plants. The nitrogen cycle is quite different: diatomic nitrogen (N 2 ) in the atmosphere is the sole stable (and very large)
pool, making up some 78 percent of the atmosphere (see Figure 3.2). Although nitrogen is required by all organ- isms to survive and grow, this
pool is largely unavailable to them under natural conditions. For most organisms this nutrient is supplied via the tissues of living and dead
organisms, which is why many ecosystems of the world are limited by nitrogen. The few organisms able to assimilate atmos- pheric N 2 are the
basis of the natural N cycle of modest intensity (relative to that of the C cycle), resulting in the creation of dynamic pools in organic matter and
aquatic resources. Generally put, nitrogen is removed from the atmosphere Source: Porter and Botkin (1999). Internal cycling 1 200 110 36 20 30
130 Denitrification Oceans 6 000 Atmosphere 4 000 000 000 Terrestrial vegetation 3 500 Soils organic matter 9 500 Denitrification Soil erosion,
runoff and river flow 140 Biological fixation Biological fixation Human activities 100 Industrial fixation Fixation in lightning Figure 3.2 The
nitrogen cycle 103 Livestocks role in climate change and air pollution by soil micro-organisms, such as the nitrogen- fixing bacteria that
colonize the roots of legumi- nous plants. These bacteria convert it into forms (so-called reactive nitrogen, Nr, in essence all N compounds other
than N 2 ) such as ammonia (NH 3 ), which can then be used by the plants. This process is called nitrogen fixation. Meanwhile, other microorganisms remove nitrogen from the soil and put it back into the atmosphere. This process, called denitrification, returns N to the atmosphere in
various forms, primarily N 2 . In addition, denitrification produces the green- house gas nitrous oxide. The human impact on the nitrogen cycle
The modest capability of natural ecosystems to drive the N cycle constituted a major hurdle in satisfying the food needs of growing popu- lations
(Galloway et al ., 2004). The historical increases of legume, rice and soybean cultiva- tion increased N fixation, but the needs of large populations
could only be met after the invention of the Haber-Bosch process in the first decade of the twentieth century, to transform N 2 into min- eral
fertilizers (see section on feed sourcing). In view of the modest natural cycling intensity, additions of chemical N fertilizers had dramatic effects.
It has been estimated that humans have already doubled the natural rate of nitrogen entering the land-based nitrogen cycle and this rate is
continuing to grow (Vitousek et al ., 1997). Synthetic fertilizers now provide about 40 per- cent of all the nitrogen taken up by crops (Smil, 2001).
Unfortunately crop, and especially animal, production uses this additional resource at a rather low efficiency of about 50 percent. The rest is
estimated to enter the so-called nitrogen cascade (Galloway et al ., 2003) and is transport- ed downstream or downwind where the nitrogen can
have a sequence of effects on ecosystems and people. Excessive nitrogen additions can pollute ecosystems and alter both their ecologi- cal
functioning and the living communities they support. What poses a problem to the atmosphere is that human intervention in the nitrogen cycle
has changed the balance of N species in the atmosphere and other reservoirs. Non-reactive molecular nitrogen is neither a greenhouse gas nor an
air polluter. However, human activities return much of it in the form of reactive nitrogen species which either is a greenhouse gas or an air
polluter. Nitrous oxide is very persistent in the atmosphere where it may last for up to 150 years. In addition to its role in global warm- ing, N 2 O
is also involved in the depletion of the ozone layer, which protects the biosphere from the harmful effects of solar ultraviolet radiation (Bolin et al
., 1981). Doubling the concentration of N 2 O in the atmosphere would result in an esti- mated 10 percent decrease in the ozone layer, which in
turn would increase the ultraviolet radiation reaching the earth by 20 percent. The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide has steadily
increased since the begin- ning of the industrial era and is now 16 percent (46 ppb) larger than in 1750 (IPCC, 2001b). Natural sources of N 2 O
are estimated to emit approximately 10 million tonnes N/yr, with soils contributing about 65 percent and oceans about 30 percent. According to
recent estimates, N 2 O emissions from anthropogenic sources (agri- culture, biomass burning, industrial activities and livestock management)
amount to approxi- mately 78 million tonnes N/yr (van Aardenne et al ., 2001; Mosier et al ., 2004). According to these estimates, 70 percent of
this results from agriculture, both crop and livestock production. Anthropogenic NO emissions also increased substantially. Although it is not a
greenhouse gas (and, therefore, is not further considered in this section), NO is involved in the formation process of ozone, which is a greenhouse
gas. Though quickly re-deposited (hours to days), annual atmospheric emissions of air-polluting ammonia (NH 3 ) increased from some 18.8 million tonnes N at the end of the 19th century to about 56.7 million tonnes in the early 1990s. They are projected to rise to 116 million tonnes N/yr
by 2050, giving rise to considerable air pol- 104 Livestocks long shadow lution in a number of world regions (Galloway et al ., 2004). This
would be almost entirely caused by food production and particularly by animal manure. Besides increased fertilizer use and agricul- tural nitrogen
fixation, the enhanced N 2 O emis- sions from agricultural and natural ecosystems are also caused by increasing N deposition (mainly of
ammonia). Whereas terrestrial eco- systems in the northern hemisphere are limited by nitrogen, tropical ecosystems, currently an important
source of N 2 O (and NO), are often limited by phosphorus. Nitrogen fertilizer inputs into these phosphorus-limited ecosystems gen- erate NO
and N 2 O fluxes that are 10 to 100 times greater than the same fertilizer addition to N- limited ecosystems (Hall and Matson, 1999). Soil N 2 O
emissions are also regulated by temperature and soil moisture and so are like- ly to respond to climate changes (Frolking et al ., 1998). In fact,
chemical processes involving nitrous oxides are extremely complex (Mosier et al ., 2004). Nitrification the oxidation of ammo- nia to nitrite and
then nitrate occurs in essen- tially all terrestrial, aquatic and sedimentary ecosystems and is accomplished by specialized bacteria.
Denitrification, the microbial reduction of nitrate or nitrite to gaseous nitrogen with NO and N 2 O as intermediate reduction compounds, is
performed by a diverse and also widely distrib- uted group of aerobic, heterotrophic bacteria. The main use of ammonia today is in fertil- izers,
produced from non-reactive molecular nitrogen, part of which directly volatilizes. The largest atmospheric ammonia emission overall comes from
the decay of organic matter in soils. The quantity of ammonia that actually escapes from soils into the atmosphere is uncertain; but is estimated at
around 50 million tonnes per year (Chameides and Perdue, 1997). As
total emission from feedcropping exceeding 0.7 million tonne N 2 O-N. 3.3.2 Emissions from aquatic sources following chemical fertilizer use
The above direct cropland emissions represent some 10 to 15 percent of the anthropogenic, added reactive N (mineral fertilizer and cultiva- tioninduced biological nitrogen fixation BNF). Unfortunately, a very large share of the remain- ing N is not incorporated in the harvested plant
tissue nor stored in the soil. Net changes in the organically bound nitrogen pool of the worlds agricultural soils are very small and may be positiv
e or negative (plus or minus 4 million tonnes N, see Smil, 1999). Soils in some regions have significant gains whereas poorly managed soils in
other regions suffer large losses. As Von Liebig noted back in 1840 (cited in Smil, 2002) one of agricultures main objectives is to produce
digestible N, so cropping aims to accu- mulate as much N as possible in the harvested product. But even modern agriculture involves substantial
losses N efficiency in global crop pr oduction is estimated to be only 50 or 60 per- cent (Smil, 1999; van der Hoek, 1998). Rework- ing these
estimates to express efficiency as the amount of N harvested from the worlds cropland 106 Livestocks long shadow with respect to the annual N
input, 10 results in an even lower efficiency of some 40 percent. This result is affected by animal manure, which has a relatively high loss rate as
compared to mineral fertilizer (see following section). Mineral fertilizer is more completely absorbed, depend- ing on the fertilizer application
rate and the type of mineral fertilizer. The most efficient combina- tion reported absorbed nearly 70 percent. Min- eral fertilizer absorption is
typically somewhat above 50 percent in Europe, while the rates for Asian rice are 30 to 35 percent (Smil, 1999). The rest of the N is lost. Most of
the N losses are not directly emitted to the atmosphere, but enter the N cascade through water. The share of losses originating from fertilized
cropland is not easily identified. Smil (1999) attempted to derive a global estimate of N losses from fertilized cropland. He estimates that
globally, in the mid- 1990, some 37 million tonnes N were exported from cropland through nitrate leaching (17 mil- lion tonnes N) and soil
erosion (20 tonnes N). In addition, a fraction of the volatilized ammonia from mineral fertilizer N (11 million tonnes N yr -1 ) finally also reaches
the surface waters after deposition (some 3 million tonnes N yr -1 ). This N is gradually denitrified in subsequent reservoirs of the nitrogen
cascade (Galloway et al ., 2003). The resulting enrichment of aquatic ecosystems with reactive N results in emissions not only of N 2 , but also
nitrous oxide. Galloway et al . (2004) estimate the total anthropogenic N 2 O emission from aquatic reservoirs to equal some 1.5 million tonnes
N, originating from a total of some 59 million tonnes N transported to inland waters and coastal areas. Feed and forage pro- duction induces a
loss of N to aquatic sources of some 8 to 10 million tonnes yr -1 if one assumes such losses to be in line with N-fertilization shares of feed and
forage production (some 20 - 25 percent of the world total, see carbon sec- tion). Applying the overall rate of anthropogenic aquatic N 2 O
emissions (1.5/59) to the livestock induced mineral fertilizer N loss to aquatic reservoirs results in a livestock induced emis- sions fr om aquatic
sources of around 0.2 million tonnes N N 2 O. 3.3.3 Wasting of nitrogen in the livestock production chain The efficiency of N assimilation by
crops leaves much to be desired. To a large extent this low efficiency is owing to management factors, such as the often excessive quantity of
fertilizers applied, as well as the form and timing of appli- cations. Optimizing these parameters can result in an efficiency level as high as 70
percent. The remaining 30 percent can be viewed as inherent (unavoidable) loss. The efficiency of N assimilation by livestock is even lower.
There are two essential differences between N in animal production and N in crop N use the: o verall assimilation efficiency is much lower; and
w asting induced by non-optimal inputs is gener ally lower. As a result the inherent N assimilation effi- ciency of animal products is low leading
to high N wasting under all circumstances. N enters livestock through feed. Animal feeds c ont ain 10 to 40 grams of N per kilogram of dry
matter. Various
estimates show livestocks low 10 Crop production, as defined by van der Hoek,
includes pas- tures and grass. Reducing inputs and outputs of the N bal- ance to reflect only the
cropland balance (animal manure N down to 20 million tonnes N as in FAO/IFA, 2001; Smil, 1999,
and removing the consumed grass N output) results in a crop pr oduct assimilation efficiency of 38
percent. Smils definition of cropland N recovery rates is less broad, but it does include forage crops. Forage crops contain many leguminous
spe- cies and, therefore, improve the overall efficiency. Removing them from the balance appears to have only a minor effect. Though, Smil
expresses recovery as the N contained in the entire plant tissue. A substantial part of this is not harvested (he estimates crop residues to contain 25
million tonnes N): some of this is lost upon decomposition after crop harvest and some (14 million tonnes N) re-enters the following crop- ping
cycle. Removing crop residues from the balance gives a harvested crop N recovery efficiency of 60/155 million tonnes N= 38 percent. 107
Livestocks role in climate change and air pollution efficiency in assimilating N from feed. Aggregat- ing all livestock species, Smil (1999)
estimated that in the mid-1990s livestock excreted some 75 million tonnes N. Van der Hoek (1998) esti- mates that globally livestock products
contained some 12 million tonnes N in 1994. These figures suggest an underlying assimilation efficiency of only 14 percent. Considering only
crop-fed ani- mal production, Smil (2002) calculated a similar average efficiency of 15 percent (33 million tonnes N from feed, forage and
residues pro- ducing 5 million tonnes of animal food N). NRC (2003) estimated the United States livestock sectors N assimilation efficiency also
at 15 per c ent (0.9 over 5.9 million tonne N). According to the IPCC (1997), the retention of nitrogen in animal products, i.e., milk, meat, wool
and eggs, generally ranges from about 5 to 20 percent of the total nitrogen intake. This apparent homo- geneity of estimations may well hide
different causes such as low feed quality in semi-arid grazing systems and excessively N-rich diets in intensive systems. Efficiency varies
considerably between different animal species and products. According to esti- mates by Van der Hoek (1998) global N efficiency i s around 20
percent for pigs and 34 percent for poultry. For the United States, Smil (2002) cal- culated the protein conversion efficiency of dairy products at
40 percent, while that of beef cattle is only 5 percent. The low N efficiency of cattle on a global scale is partly inherent, given they are large
animals with long gestation periods and a high basal metabolic rate. But the global cattle herd also comprises a large draught animal population
whose task is to provide energy, not protein. For example, a decade ago cattle and horses still accounted for 25 percent of Chinas agricultural
energy consumption (Mengjie and Yi, 1996). In addition, in many areas of the world, grazing animals are fed at bare maintenance level,
consuming without producing much. As a result, a huge amount of N is returned to the environment through animal excretions. However, not all
this excreted N is wasted. When used as organic fertilizer, or directly deposited on grassland or crop fields, some of the reac- tive N re-enters the
crop production cycle. This is particularly the case for ruminants, therefore, their contribution to overall N loss to the envi- ronment is less than
their contribution to N in animal waste. Smil (2002) also noted that this (ruminant assimilation: ed.) inefficiency is irrel- evant in broader N
terms as long as the animals (ruminants: ed.) are totally grass-fed, or raised primarily on crop and food processing residues (ranging from straw to
bran and from oilseed cakes to grapefruit rinds) that are indigestible or unpalatable for non-ruminant species. Such cattle feeding calls for no, or
minimal because some pastures are fertilized additional inputs of fertilizer-N. Any society that would put a pre- mium on reducing N losses in
agro-ecosystems would thus produce only those two kinds of beef. In contrast, beef production has the greatest impact on overall N use when the
animals are fed only concentrates, which are typically mixtures of cereal grains (mostly corn) and soybeans. Significant emissions of greenhouse
gases to the atmosphere do arise from losses of N from animal waste that contain large amounts of N and have a chemical composition which
induces very high loss rates. For sheep and cattle, faecal excre- t i on is usually about 8 grams of N per kilogram of dry matter consumed,
regardless of the nitrogen content of the feed (Barrow and Lambourne, 1962). The remainder of the nitrogen is excreted in the urine, and as the
nitrogen content of the diet increases, so does the proportion of nitrogen in the urine. In animal production systems where the animal intake of
nitrogen is high, more than half of the nitrogen is excreted as urine. Losses from manure occur at different stages: during storage; shortly after
application or direct deposition to land and losses at later stages. 3.3.4 Nitrogen emissions from stored manure During storage (including the
preceding excre- tion in animal houses) the organically bound 108 Livestocks long shadow nitrogen in faeces and urine starts to mineralize to
NH 3 /NH 4 + , providing the substrate for nitrifiers and denitrifiers (and hence, eventual production of N 2 O). For the most part, these excreted
N compounds mineralize rapidly. In urine, typically over 70 percent of the nitrogen is present as urea (IPCC, 1997). Uric acid is the dominant
nitrogen compound in poultry excretions. The hydrolysis of both urea and uric acid to NH 3 /NH 4 + is very rapid in urine patches. Considering
first N 2 O emissions, generally only a very small portion of the total nitrogen excreted is converted to N 2 O during handling and storage of
managed waste. As stated above, the waste composition determines its potential mineralization rate, while the actual magni- tude of N 2 O
emissions depend on environmental conditions. For N 2 O emissions to occur, the waste must first be handled aerobically, allowing ammonia or
organic nitrogen to be converted to nitrates and nitrites (nitrification). It must then be handled anaerobically, allowing the nitrates and nitrites to
be reduced to N 2 , with interme- diate production of N 2 O and nitric oxide (NO) (denitrification). These emissions are most likely to occur in
dry waste-handling systems, which have aerobic conditions, and contain pockets of anaerobic conditions owing to saturation. For example, waste
in dry lots is deposited on soil, where it is oxidized to nitrite and nitrate, and has the potential to encounter saturated conditions. There is an
antagonism between emission risks of methane versus nitrous oxide for the different waste storage pathways trying to reduce meth- ane
emissions may well increase those of N 2 O. The amount of N 2 O released during storage and treatment of animal wastes depends on the system
and duration of waste management and the temperature. Unfortunately, there is not enough quantitative data to establish a rela- tionship between
the degree of aeration and N 2 O emission from slurry during storage and treatment. Moreover, there is a wide range of estimates for the losses.
When expressed in N 2 O N/kg nitrogen in the waste (i.e. the share of N in waste emitted to the atmosphere as nitrous oxide), losses from animal
waste during stor- age range from less than 0.0001 kg N 2 O N/kg N for slurries to more than 0.15 kg N 2 O N/kg nitrogen in the pig waste of
deep-litter stables. Any estimation of global manure emission needs to consider these uncertainties. Expert
the basis
of the animal population in indus- trial systems (Chapter 2), and their estimated manure
production (IPCC, 1997), the current amount of N in the corresponding animal waste can be
estimated at 10 million tonnes, and the corresponding NH 3 volatilization from stored manure at 2
million tonnes N. Thus, volatilization losses during animal waste 11 See also Annex 3.3. Regional livestock experts provided information
on the relative importance of different waste management systems in each of the regions production systems through a questionnaire. On the
basis of this infor- mation, waste management and gaseous emission experts from the Recycling of Agricultural, Municipal and Indus- trial
Residues in Agriculture Network (RAMIRAN; available at www.ramiran.net) estimated region and system specific emissions. 109 Livestocks
role in climate change and air pollution management are not far from those from current synthetic N fertilizer use. On the one hand, this nitrogen
loss reduces emissions from manure once applied to fields; on the other, it gives rise to nitrous oxide emissions further down the nitrogen
cascade. 3.3.5 Nitrogen emissions from applied or deposited manure Excreta freshly deposited on land (either applied by mechanical spreading
or direct deposition by the livestock) have high nitrogen loss rates, resulting in substantial ammonia volatiliza- tion. Wide variations in the quality
of forages consumed by ruminants and in environmental conditions make N emissions from manure on pastures difficult to quantify. FAO/IFA
(2001) estimate the N loss via NH 3 volatilization from animal manure, after application, to be 23 per- cent worldwide. Smil (1999) estimates this
loss to be at least 1520 percent. The IPCC proposes a standard N loss fraction from ammonia volatilization of 20 percent, with- out
differentiating between applied and directly deposited manure. Considering the substantial N loss from volatilization during storage (see
preceding section) the total ammonia volatil- ization following excretion can be estimated at around 40 percent. It seems reasonable to apply this
rate to directly deposited manure (maxi- mum of 60 percent or even 70 percent have been recorded), supposing that the lower share of N in urine
in tropical land-based systems is compen- sated by the higher temperature. We
soil temperature, plant/crop uptake rate and rainfall characteristics (Mosier et al ., 2004). However, because of the complex inter- action and the
highly uncertain resulting N 2 O flux, the revised IPCC guidelines are based on N inputs only, and do not consider soil character- istics. Despite
this uncertainty, manure-induced soil emissions are clearly the largest livestock source of N 2 O worldwide. Emission fluxes from animal grazing
(unmanaged waste, direct emis- sion) and from the use of animal waste as fertil- izer on cropland are of a comparable magni- tude. The grazingderived N 2 O emissions are in the range of 0.0020.098 kg N 2 ON/kg nitrogen excreted, whereas the default emission fac- tor used for
fertilizer use is set at 0.0125 kg N 2 ON/kg nitrogen. Nearly all data pertain to temperate areas and to intensively managed grasslands. Here, the
nitrogen content of dung, and especially urine, are higher than from less intensively managed grasslands in the tropics or subtropics. It is not
known to what extent this compensates for the enhanced emissions in the more phosphorus-limited tropical ecosystems. Emissions from applied
manure must be cal- culated separately from emissions from waste excreted by animals. The FAO/IFA study (2001) estimates the N 2 O loss rate
from applied manure 12 From the estimated total of 75 million tonnes N excreted by livestock we deduce that 33 million tonnes were applied to
intensively used grassland, upland crops and wetland rice (FAO/IFA, 2001) and there were 10 million tonnes of ammo- nia losses during storage.
Use of animal manure as fuel is ignored. 110 Livestocks long shadow Box 3.3 A new as sessment of nitrous oxide emissions from manure by
production system, species and region The global figures we have cited demonstrate the importance of nitrous oxide emissions from animal
production. However, to set priorities in addressing the problem, we need a more detailed understand- ing of the origin of these emissions, by
evaluating the contribution of different production systems, species and world regions to the global totals. Our assessment, detailed below, is
based on current livestock data and results in a much higher estimate than most recent literature, which is based on data from the mid-1990s. The
live- stock sector has evolved substantially over the last decade. We
Overall, livestock activities contribute an esti- mated 18 percent to total anthropogenic green- house gas emissions from the five major sectors for
greenhouse gas reporting: energy, industry, waste, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and agriculture. Considering the last two
sectors only, livestocks share is over 50 percent. For the agriculture sec- tor alone, livestock constitute nearly 80 percent of all emissions. Table
3.12 summarizes livestocks overall impact on climate change by: major gas, source and type of production system. Here we will summarize the
impact for the three major greenhouse gases. Carbon dio xide Livestock account for 9 percent of global anthropogenic emissions When
deforestation for pasture and feedcrop land, and pasture degradation are taken into account, livestock-related emissions of carbon dioxide are an
important component of the glob- al t otal (some 9 percent). However, as can be seen from the many assumptions made in pre- ceding sections,
these totals have a considerable degree of uncertainty. LULUCF sector emissions in particular are extremely difficult to quantify and the values
reported to the UNFCCC for this sector are known to be of low reliability. This sector is therefore often omitted in emissions reporting, although
its share is thought to be important. Although small by comparison to LULUCF, the livestock food chain is becoming more fos- sil fuel intensive,
which will increase carbon dioxide emissions from livestock production. As ruminant production (based on traditional local feed resources) shifts
to intensive monogastrics (based on food transported over long distances), there is a corresponding shift away from solar energy harnessed by
photosynthesis, to fossil fuels.
5. Alt-cause: livestock, specifically cattle are the top destroyer of the environment,
cause massive amounts of GHG release
Lean 6 Lean, Geoffrey. "Cow 'emissions' more damaging to planet than CO2 from cars ." The
Independent. 10 Dec. 2006. <http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/cow-emissionsmore-damaging-to-planet-than-co2-from-cars-427843.html>.
Geoffrey Lean is Britain's longest-serving environmental correspondent, having pioneered reporting on the subject almost 40 years ago. He is an
environmental correspondent at the Telegraph and the environment editor at the Independent.
Meet the world's top destroyer of the environment. It is not the car, or the plane,or even George
Bush: it is the cow. A United Nations report has identified the world's rapidly growing herds of
cattle as the greatest threat to the climate, forests and wildlife. And they are blamed for a host of other
environmental crimes, from acid rain to the introduction of alien species, from producing deserts to
creating dead zones in the oceans, from poisoning rivers and drinking water to destroying coral reefs. The
400-page report by the Food and Agricultural Organisation, entitled Livestock's Long Shadow, also
surveys the damage done by sheep, chickens, pigs and goats. But in almost every case, the world's 1.5
billion cattle are most to blame. Livestock are responsible for 18 per cent of the greenhouse gases
that cause global warming, more than cars, planes and all other forms of transport put together.
Burning fuel to produce fertiliser to grow feed, to produce meat and to transport it - and clearing
vegetation for grazing - produces 9 per cent of all emissions of carbon dioxide, the most common
greenhouse gas. And their wind and manure emit more than one third of emissions of another,
methane, which warms the world 20 times faster than carbon dioxide. Livestock also produces more
than 100 other polluting gases, including more than two-thirds of the world's emissions of ammonia,
one of the main causes of acid rain. Ranching, the report adds, is "the major driver of deforestation"
worldwide, and overgrazing is turning a fifth of all pastures and ranges into desert.Cows also soak up vast
amounts of water: it takes a staggering 990 litres of water to produce one litre of milk. Wastes from
feedlots and fertilisers used to grow their feed overnourish water, causing weeds to choke all other life.
And the pesticides, antibiotics and hormones used to treat them get into drinking water and endanger
human health. The pollution washes down to the sea, killing coral reefs and creating "dead zones" devoid
of life. One is up to 21,000sqkm, in the Gulf of Mexico, where much of the waste from US beef
production is carried down the Mississippi. The report concludes that, unless drastic changes are made,
the massive damage done by livestock will more than double by 2050, as demand for meat
increases.
2NCOxidation Solves
Oxidation and depths solve any MH leaks
Ruppel 11Ph.D. in Solid Earth geophysics from MIT, Chief of the USGS Gas Hydrates Project.
[Methane Hydrates and Contemporary Climate Change, Carolyn Ruppel, Nature Education Knowledge,
Volume 2, Number 12, 2011, accessed from Emory] // HR
The susceptibility of gas hydrates to warming climate depends on the duration of the warming event, their depth beneath the seafloor or tundra
surface, and the amount of warming required to heat sediments to the point of dissociating gas hydrates. A
rudimentary estimate of
the depth to which sediments are affected by an instantaneous, sustained temperature change DT in
the overlying air or ocean waters can be made using the diffusive length scale 1 = kt , which describes the depth (m) that 0.5 DT will propagate
in elapsed time t (s). k denotes thermal diffusivity, which ranges from ~0.6 to 1x10-6 m2/s for unconsolidated sediments. Over 10, 100, and 1000
yr, the calculation yields maximum of 18 m, 56 m, and 178 m, respectively, regardless of the magnitude of DT. In real situations, DT is usually
small and may have short- (e.g., seasonal) or long-term fluctuations that swamp the signal associated with climate warming trends. Even
over
103 yr, only gas hydrates close to the seafloor and initially within a few degrees of the
thermodynamic stability boundary might experience dissociation in response to reasonable rates of
warming. As discussed below, less than 5% of the gas hydrate inventory may meet these criteria.
Even when gas hydrate dissociates, several factors mitigate the impact of the liberated CH4 on the
sediment ocean-atmosphere system. In marine sediments, the released CH4 may dissolve in local
pore waters, remain trapped as gas, or rise toward the seafloor as bubbles. Up to 90% or more of
the CH4 that reaches the sulfate reduction zone (SRZ) in the near-seafloor sediments may be consumed by
anaerobic CH4 oxidation (Hinrichs & Boetius 2002, Treude et al. 2003, Reeburgh 2007, Knittel & Boetius 2009). At the highest flux
sites (seeps), the SRZ may vanish, allowing CH4 to be injected directly into the water column or, in some cases, partially consumed by aerobic
microbes (Niemann et al. 2006).
Methane emitted at the seafloor only rarely survives the trip through the water column to reach the
atmosphere. At seafloor depths greater than ~100 m, O2 and N2 dissolved in ocean water almost completely replace CH4 in rising bubbles
(McGinnis et al. 2006). Within the water column, oxidation by aerobic microbes is an important sink for dissolved
CH4 over some depth ranges and at some locations (e.g., Mau et al. 2007). These oxidizing microbial communities are
remarkably responsive to environmental changes, including variations in CH4 concentrations. For
example, rapid deepwater injection of large volumes of CH4 led to dramatically increased oxidation in
the northern Gulf of Mexico in 2010 (Kessler et al. 2011, Yvon-Lewis et al. 2011). Water column CH4 oxidation mitigates the
direct GHG impact of CH4 that is emitted at the seafloor, but it also depletes water column O2, acidifies ocean waters, and leads to the eventual
release of the product CO2 to the atmosphere after residence times (Liro et al 1993) of <50 years (water depths up to 500 m) to several hundred
years (more profound water depths).
rice cultivation, termites, cows and other ruminants, forest fires, and fossil fuel production. Some
researchers have estimated that up to two percent of atmospheric methane may originate through
dissociation of global methane hydrates (as reviewed by Ruppel, 2011). It has been shown that methane
is an important component of Earths carbon cycle on geologic timescales. Whether methane once
stored as methane hydrate has contributed to past climate change or will play a role in the future
global climate remains unclear. A given volume of methane causes 15 to 20 times more greenhouse gas
warming than carbon dioxide, so the release of large quantities of methane to the atmosphere could
exacerbate atmospheric warming and cause more methane hydrates to destabilize. Extreme warming
during the PaleoceneEocene Thermal Maximum about 55 million years ago may have been related to a
largescale release of global methane hydrates. The impact of modern climate warming on methane
hydrate deposits does not appear to have led to catastrophic breakdown of methane hydrates or
major leakage of methane to the oceanatmosphere system from destabilized hydrates. The vast
majority of methane hydrates would require a sustained warming over thousands of years to trigger
dissociation; however, methane hydrates in some locations are now dissociating in response to longer
term climate processes.
The idea that oxidation of methane in the oceans takes place rapidly is supported by the
observation ofTsunogai, Yoshida, Ishibashi, and Gamo (2000) that 98% of the methane within a hydrothermal
plume at Myojin Knoll on the Izu-Bonin Arc south of Japan was oxidized below a water depth of 900 m as a result of
microbial oxidation. In this case, the specific methane oxidation rate (equivalent to the fraction of methane that can be oxidized per day)
was 4.316.1103 day1 equivalent to a mean residence time of methane in the ocean of 28 months. Suess et al. (1999) have similarly reported
high rates of methane oxidation in vent fluids from the Cascadia convergent margin. By contrast, the residence time of methane in the open ocean
appears to be very much longer ranging from a few to a few hundred years in the North Pacific (Watanabe, Higashitani, Tsurushima, & Tsunogai,
1995) to 50 years in North Atlantic deep water (Brooks, 1979 and Rehder et al., 1999). According to Watanabe et al. (1995), these differences in
the rates of oxidation of methane may reflect the fact that oxidation of methane in dilute solutions such as deep-ocean waters is slow but is much
higher in hydrothermal plumes containing high concentrations of methane which support enhanced consumption of the methane by
methanotrophic bacteria.
In a major study, Valentine, Blanton, Reeburgh and Kastner (2001) have determined the rate of oxidation of methane in the water column in
the Eel River Basin off the coast of northern California adjacent to an area where methane hydrates were actively dissociating. The hydrates
were located at a water depth of 520530 m which is close to the stability boundary of the hydrates under these conditions (Brewer, 2000,
Brewer et al., 1997 and Peltzer and Brewer, 2000). These authors demonstrated that the methane turnover time is much shorter (ca. 1.5 years)
in deep waters (>370 m) where methane is actively venting and methane concentrations are high (20300 nM) than in shallower waters (<370
m) where methane concentrations are low (310 nM) and the methane turnover time is measured in decades. The depth-integrated methane
oxidation in the water column averaged 5.2 mmole m2 yr1 in the deep waters but only 0.14 mmole m2 yr1in shallow waters.
According to von Rad et al. (2000), cold seeps from the Makran accretionary wedge off Pakistan discharge large plumes of methane into the
deeper parts of the Indian intermediate water which extend horizontally for >20 km into the ocean. In addition, pore waters in sediment
containing authigenic carbonates grabbed directly from a cold seep in this region contained 1036 ppm methane. These observations prove
that methane is discharged in large quantities from methane hydrate deposits. Venting of methane-rich plumes from a depth of 2617 m on the
Carolina continental rise has also been documented (Paull et al., 1995). The plumes were identified in the water column up to 320 m above the
sea floor and were thought to be caused by the upward migration of gas bubbles or buoyant clumps of methane hydrate. Gas plumes have also
been identified on high-resolution seismic profiles in the eastern Arabian Sea off India but these also do not appear to reach the sea surface
(Karisiddaiah & Veerayya, 1996). According to Valentine et al. (2001), methane entering the water column as bubbles dissolves within a few
hundred metres of the seafloor, except in the case of the massive release of methane by slumping (Brooks et al., 1981, Hovland et al., 1993,
Judd et al., 1997, Yamamoto et al., 1976 and Leifer & Judd, 2002). However, a gas plume with a base about 600 m wide has been observed
streaming from gas hydrate mound at a depth of 540 m on the upper continental slope of the Gulf of Mexico (Sassen et al., 2001a). Although
the echo sounder profile did not trace the gas bubble trace to the sea surface, gas bubbles with oil (2030 mm in diameter) have been observed
at the sea surface at this site for a number of years. Vigorous methane plumes up to 500 m high emanating from methane hydrates have also
been observed on the seafloor in the Sea of Okhotsk (Suess et al., 1999). In the winter of 1991, a concentration of 6.5 ml l1 CH4 was measured
in the seawater just below the ice cover but this had dropped to 0.13 ml l 1 CH4 the next summer. The difference was assumed to have vented
to the atmosphere. Suess et al. (1999) have also reported a plume several hundred metres high and several kilometres wide on one of the
ridges at the Cascadia convergent margin.
For events at the latest Palaeocene Thermal Maximum (LPTM), Dickens, 2000, Dickens et al., 1997 and Dickens et al., 1995 have argued that
oxidation of the methane to carbon dioxide would have been rapid. This idea is supported by the
fact that the lifetime of methane in the atmosphere is 810 years (Tyler, 1991). Kennett et al. (2000), on the other
hand, have pointed out that that large oscillations in atmospheric methane concentrations associated with quaternary climatic cycles have
been recorded in polar ice cores on millenial and decadal time scales and that dramatic warmings during the first few decades of interglacials
and interstadials coincided with rapid increases in atmospheric concentrations of methane (Haq, 1998 and Haq, 2000). This suggests that large
increases in atmospheric methane concentrations can result from the large-scale dissociation of methane hydrates.
water mass. Under these conditions, it is probable that a much higher proportion of the methane would be brought up to the sea surface and
released to the atmosphere. The recent observation of bulk samples of methane hydrates up to 1 m 3 in volume floating to the sea surface at
Hydrate Ridge at the Cascadia convergent margin (Suess et al., 2001) offers strong support to the idea that large, instantaneous pulses of
methane to the atmosphere could have taken place under such extreme conditions. Such events would have an immediate impact on global
climate.
Finally, particular attention should be paid to the suggestion of Sassen et al., 2001b and Sassen et al., 2001cthat venting from a prolific subsurface
petroleum system is far more significant than venting from methane hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico and that there appears to be a net trapping of
these thermogenic gases in the methane hydrate deposits. This interesting hypothesis leads these authors to suggest that sequestering of
greenhouse gases in stable or accumulating methane hydrate deposits may buffer the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (c.f.
Kvenvolden, 2002). However, this situation would presumably hold true only in areas where prolific migration of thermogenic gases is taking
place such as the Gulf of Mexico and the global significance of this process needs to be evaluated.
2NCSquo Solves
Current regulations solve
Banks & Schneider 12Senior Climate Policy Advisor for the Clean Air Task Force // Advocacy
Director for the Clean Air Task Force. [Curb Methane Emissions, Jonathan Banks and Conrad
Schnieder, 23 July 2012 http://www.catf.us/blogs/ahead/2012/07/23/461/
With Shells imminent entrance into Arctic waters, the debate is turning from if we drill in the Arctic,
to how and where we drill in the Arctic. The discussion to date has primarily revolved around the key
questions of oil spills and impacts to marine ecosystems. However, it is also critically important to
remember that this debate starts and ends with climate change.
The melting of the Arctic due to global warming is what set off the race for Arctic oil and gas. Now, it is
incumbent upon the countries and the companies that intend to develop the Arctic to make sure
that it is done in the least damaging way possible, and this includes paying very close attention to
the global warming pollutants coming from the production: methane, black carbon and carbon
dioxide. Pointing the way forward in a new report: (www.catf.us/resources/publications/view/170),
Clean Air Task Force has laid out the primary climate risks and mitigation strategies of drilling in
the Arctic. Here is a summary of some of the key findings of that report:
While oil production is the primary focus of current exploration and production activities due to high oil
prices, natural gas is almost always produced along with oil, posing the problem of what to do with it.
Crude oil usually contains some amount of associated natural gas that is dissolved in the oil or exists as
a cap of free gas above the oil in the geological formation. In some cases, this represents a large volume
of gas. For example, nearly 3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per year of gas is produced in association with oil in
Alaska. The largest (but by no means only) potential source of methane pollution is from the leaks
or outright venting of this associated natural gas. Flaring, the typical way to dispose of this
stranded gas, is much better than venting, but it releases a tremendous amount of CO2. Worldwide,
about 5 trillion cubic feet of gas is flared each year. Thats about 25 percent of the USs annual natural
gas consumption. This leads to the release of about 400 million tons of CO2 per year globally, the
equivalent to the annual emissions from over 70 million cars.
Black carbon is also emitted from flares, although measurements are lacking to fully understand the
potential burden from flaring. What we do know is that the black carbon that flaring will release in the
Arctic is particularly harmful, since it is so likely to settle out on snow or ice, where the dark pollutant
rapidly warms the white frozen surface.
Many technologies and best practices exist to reduce the impact of oil and gas production both to
the Arctic and the global climate. If we are going to extract the oil from the Arctic, we need to do it in a
way that does not exacerbate the very real problem that climate change is already posing there. In order to
do so, the US must take the lead in ensuring that only the best practices are acceptable when it
comes to Arctic exploration and drilling. The technologies and practices below can dramatically
reduce the emissions associated with oil and natural gas, in some cases by almost 100%.
at rates documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 20th century
should not lead to catastrophic breakdown of methane hydrates or major leakage of methane to
the ocean-atmosphere system from gas hydrates that dissociate. Although most methane hydrates would
have to experience sustained warming over thousands of years before dissociation was triggered, gas
hydrates in some places are dissociating now in response to short- and long-term climatic processes.
The following discussion refers to the numbered type locales or sectors shown in the diagram of gas-hydrate deposits below.
Sector 1, Thick Onshore Permafrost: Gas hydrates that occur within or beneath thick terrestrial permafrost will remain largely stable even if
climate warming lasts hundreds of years. Over thousands of years, warming could cause gas hydrates at the top of the stability zone, about 625
feet (190 meters) below the Earths surface, to begin to dissociate.
Sector 2, Shallow Arctic Shelf: The shallow-water continental shelves that circle parts of the Arctic Ocean were formed when sea-level rise
during the past 10,000 years inundated permafrost that was at the coastline. Subsea permafrost is thawing beneath these continental shelves, and
associated methane hydrates are likely dissociating now. (For example, see related Sound Waves article "Degradation of Subsea Permafrost and
Associated Gas Hydrates Offshore of Alaska in Response to Climate Change.") If methane from these gas hydrates reaches the seafloor, much of
it will likely be emitted to the atmosphere. Less than 1 percent of the worlds gas hydrates probably occur in this setting, but this estimate could
be revised as scientists learn more.
Sector 3, Upper Edge of Stability: Gas hydrates on upper continental slopes, beneath 1,000 to 1,600 feet (300 to 500 meters) of water, lie at the
shallowest water depth for which methane hydrates are stable. The upper continental slopes, which ring all of the worlds continents, could host
gas hydrate in zones that are roughly 30 feet (10 meters) thick. Warming ocean waters could completely dissociate these gas hydrates in less than
100 years. Methane emitted at these water depths will probably dissolve or be oxidized in the water column and is unlikely to reach the
atmosphere. About 3.5 percent of the Earths gas hydrates occur in this climate-sensitive setting.
Sector 4, Deepwater: Most
of the Earths gas hydrates, about 95 percent, occur in water depths greater than
3,000 feet (1,000 meters). They are likely to remain stable even with a sustained increase in bottom
temperatures over thousands of years . Most of the gas hydrates in these settings occur deep within the sediments. If the
gas hydrates do dissociate, the released methane should remain trapped in the sediments, migrate
upward to form new gas hydrates, or be consumed by oxidation in near-seafloor sediments. Most methane
released at the seafloor would likely dissolve or be oxidized in the water column. A recent article, Methane
Hydrates and Contemporary Climate Change, provides more detail.
you
read the Independent of Britain, youd certainly be thinking the worst. The newspaper has led the charge in
fomenting worry over the gas emissions, with portentous, and remarkably similar, stories in 2008 and this week. [Dec. 29, 1:44 p.m. | Updated |
Steve Connor, the writer (also science editor) at The Independent, alerted me that the article has been revised with a new headline and expanded
to include content that didn't make it into the piece when first published.] If
Union, which publishes the journal, and see if you feel reassured that the
that roughly 1 meter of the subsurface permafrost thawed in the past 25 years,
adding to the 25 meters of already thawed soil. Forecasting the expected future permafrost thaw, the authors found that
even under the most extreme climatic scenario tested this thawed soil growth will not exceed 10
meters by 2100 or 50 meters by the turn of the next millennium. The authors note that the bulk of the
methane stores in the east Siberian shelf are trapped roughly 200 meters below the seafloor [Read the
rest.] Heres the link to the paper itself: Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost
instability. To review, the
authors confirm drastic bottom layer heating over the coastal zone that they attribute to warming of the Arctic
suggest that the opening up of the Arctic Ocean could bring more
economic costs than benefits, owing to climatic effects resulting from a sudden release of 50
gigatonnes of methane from the area (Nature 499, 401403; 2013). However, our literature review of the impact
of sea-ice decline on Arctic greenhouse-gas exchange indicates that methane release is likely to be more gradual
because of a slow rate of heat penetration into the subsea permafrost (see F. J. W. Parmentier et al. Nature Clim.
Change 3, 195202; 2013). We therefore believe that the proposed scenario is unlikely. Although the Arctic Ocean
represents a substantial source of methane, there are still many unknowns. Any research that assumes a large increase in emissions from that
region should therefore include ample discussion of the uncertainties relating to this source. Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Torben R. Christensen
Lund University, Sweden. frans-jan.parmentier@nateko.lu.se
We disagree with Gail Whiteman and colleagues that there is likely to be a large and sudden release of
methane from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Nature 499, 401403; 2013). Such an event would require an
almost 1,000-fold regional increase in methane emissions from thawing permafrost, which would be
inconsistent with geological evidence: although the concentration of atmospheric methane rose in response to abrupt warming
during recent deglaciations, isotopic methane measurements do not indicate that the gas came from marine gas hydrates during these periods (H.
Fischer et al. Nature 452, 864867; 2008).
Sea-floor temperatures determine the stability of methane hydrate reservoirs. To our knowledge,
there is no evidence that these temperatures have changed significantly in the past few decades, or
that a sudden change is imminent. Although elevated methane concentrations have been observed in water and the atmosphere
above the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, it is not clear whether these have been caused by recent warming or by natural processes linked to glacial
interglacial changes (V. V. Petrenko et al. Science 329, 11461147; 2010). The
widespread release of isotopically-light (microbial) carbon from dissociating marine methane hydrates (e.g., Dickens et al. 1995, Zachos et al.
2005). This explanation is also invoked to explain CIEs in other deep-time warm periods (Hesselbo et al. 2000, Jiang et al. 2003). Negative CIEs
also undergird the clathrate gun hypothesis (CGH), which postulates that repeated warming of intermediate ocean waters during the Late
Quaternary (since 400 ka) triggered periodic dissociation events (Kennett et al. 2003).Ice core data (Sowers 2006) and geologic studies (Maslin et
al. 2003) have challenged the CGH, while Bock et al. (2010) and Petrenko et al. (2009) question the role of gas hydrate dissociation in
contributing to increased atmospheric CH4 during more recent warming events as well. Northern hemisphere wetlands, which may experience
increased production of isotopically-light CH4 in response to local warming, appear to be the key culprit in enhancing atmospheric CH 4
concentrations during several Pleistocene (~2.6 Ma to 10 ka) and Holocene (since 10 ka) warming events. Fate of Contemporary Methane
Hydrates During Warming Climate The
permafrost-bearing sediments are stable over warm periods that endure more than 10 3 yr (e.g., Lachenbruch et al. 1994), even under scenarios of
doubling atmospheric CO2 (Majorowicz et al. 2008). Only gas hydrates at the top of the GHSZ, nominally at ~225 m depth for pure CH 4 hydrate
within permafrost, might be vulnerable to dissociation due to atmospheric warming over 10 3 yr. Such shallow, intrapermafrost gas hydrate has
been sampled in the North American Arctic (Collett et al. 2011, Dallimore & Collett 1995), but is not necessarily ubiquitous at high latitudes.
Warming Arctic temperatures tracked in deep boreholes since the 1960s provide no evidence for climate perturbations reaching as deep as 200 m
(Judge & Majorowicz 1992, Lachenbruch & Marshall 1986) in normal (e.g., not beneath lakes) continuous permafrost. Some researchers have
argued that gas hydrates formed during previous periods of ice/water loading may persist today at subsurface depths as shallow as 20 m in areas
of continuous permafrost (Chuvilin et al. 1998). Although their existence is controversial, such shallow gas hydrates would clearly be highly
susceptible to dissociation in response to climate warming. Simple numerical model: Adopting a pre-warming surface temperature of -10C and
initial geotherms of 19C/km and 30C/km within and beneath permafrost, respectively, sustained surface warming over 100 yr with DT =3C at
the surface does not raise temperatures enough to perturb the top of the GHSZ (Figure 1b). Warming
gas hydrates, which constitute most of the global inventory, generally have low
susceptibility to warming climate over time scales shorter than a millennium. The gas hydrates closest to the
edge of thermodynamic stability lie deep within the sedimentary section and close to the base of the GHSZ. Sustained bottom water
temperature increases lasting many 103 yr would be required to initiate warming, no less
dissociation. Even if CH4 is released from gas hydrate and is able to migrate toward the seafloor,
some CH4 may be trapped in newly formed gas hydrate (e.g., Reagan & Moridis 2008) and much will be consumed in
the SRZ. Simple Numerical Model: Using the same initial conditions as for Sector 3 and assuming an increase in bottom water temperature of DT
=1.25C, sustained warming over 100 and 3000 yr produces no dissociation of gas hydrate (Figure 1b). 5. Seafloor gas hydrate mounds (trace). At
some marine seeps, massive, relatively pure gas hydrate occurs in seafloor mounds (e.g., Gulf of Mexico; Macdonald et al. 1994) and in shallow
subseafloor layers (e.g., Suess et al. 2001) or conduits. These mounds are shown schematically as deepwater phenomena in Figure 1a, but in fact
often occur at upper continental slope depths. While seafloor gas hydrate mounds and shallow subseafloor gas hydrates constitute only a trace
component of the global gas hydrate inventory, they can dissociate rapidly due to expulsion of warm fluids from the seafloor (e.g., Macdonald et
al. 2005), warming of overlying waters (e.g., Macdonald et al. 1994), or possibly pressure perturbations (Tryon et al. 2002). Direct measurements
of CH4 have alternately confirmed (Solomon et al. 2009) and challenged (Hu et al. 2011) the contention that significant CH4 reaches the
atmosphere due to gas hydrate dissociation at such seeps. Conclusions Catastrophic,
when CH4 is
liberated from gas hydrates, oxidative and physical processes may greatly reduce the amount that
reaches the atmosphere as CH4. The CO2 produced by oxidation of CH4 released from dissociating gas hydrates will likely have a
greater impact on the Earth system (e.g., on ocean chemistry and atmospheric CO2 concentrations; Archer et al. 2009) than will the CH4 that
remains after passing through various sinks. Contemporary and future gas hydrate degradation will occur primarily on the circum-Arctic Ocean
continental shelves (Sector 2; Macdonald 1990, Lachenbruch et al. 1994, Maslin 2010), where subsea permafrost thawing and methane hydrate
dissociation have been triggered by warming and inundation since Late Pleistocene time, and at the feather edge of the GHSZ on upper
continental slopes (Sector 3), where the zone's full thickness can dissociate rapidly due to modest warming of intermediate waters. More CH4
may be sequestered in upper continental slope gas hydrates than in those associated with subsea permafrost; however, CH 4 that reaches the
seafloor from dissociating Arctic Ocean shelf gas hydrates is much more likely to enter the atmosphere rapidly and as CH4, not CO2. Proof is still
lacking that gas hydrate dissociation currently contributes to seepage from upper continental slopes or to elevated seawater CH4 concentrations on
circum-Arctic Ocean shelves. An even greater challenge for the future is determining the contribution of global gas hydrate dissociation to
contemporary and future atmospheric CH4 concentrations. Acknowledgements. Comments from J. Kessler and an anonymous reviewer and
advice from R. Boswell, W. Reeburgh, W. Waite, J. Pohlman, and others improved this article. G. Westbrook provided the banner image, which
shows echosounder images of methane plumes emanating from the seafloor at 380 m depth on the Svalbard margin. Glossary Carbon isotopic
excursion (CIE): Climate scientists use isotopic signatures recorded in ice cores, deep ocean sediments, thick carbonate sequences, and other
types of samples to reconstruct Earth's climate history and the composition of the ocean/atmosphere. 13C isotopic signatures are commonly
expressed as a 13C value. Deviations from the baseline 13C value are termed carbon isotopic excursions. Negative deviations in 13C of even 1
part per mille (written as 1) are substantial for records constructed from benthic and planktonic foraminifera tests. Such deviations imply the
emission of large amounts of isotopically-light carbon (strongly negative 13C ratio) that likely originated through microbial methanogenesis.
Large, climate-sensitive sources for isotopically-light methane carbon in the Earth system include wetlands and most natural gas hydrates.
Dissociation: The breakdown of gas hydrate occurs by dissociation to its constituent water and gas. Gas hydrate: Gas hydrate is an ice-like solid
that forms in sediments and remains stable at certain pressure-temperature conditions. Gas hydrates have a clathrate structure: water molecules
form linked cages that enclose individual molecules of low molecular weight gas (e.g., CH4, CO2, hydrogen sulfide, ethane). Some water cages
may be empty, rendering gas hydrates non-stoichiometric compounds and making it difficult to predict exactly how much gas will be released for
dissociation of a given volume of gas hydrate. Gas hydrates in nature contain mostly methane as the trapped gas. This methane can originate from
the microbial degradation of organic carbon or from deep burial and heating of organic matter, a so-called thermogenic process similar to that
responsible for oil generation. Outside of hydrocarbon provinces, gas hydrate typically contains almost exclusively microbial methane.
Hyperthermals: Periods characterized by extremely warm climate conditions. Saturation: The percentage of sediment pore space occupied by
gas hydrate. Sulfate reduction zone (SRZ): A zone within the marine sedimentary section starting at the sediment-water interface and extending
downward to the depth at which sulfate is depleted as a result of the microbially-mediated oxidation of methane and other organic compounds.
The thickness of the SRZ varies from centimeters to tens of meters and is inversely related to the upward flux of methane toward the seafloor and
the organic matter content of the sediments. Most of the methane that enters the SRZ from below is consumed before it reaches the seafloor.
No methane leaks
Cathles 12Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences @ Cornell University [Cathles, Lawrence
M., Larry D. Brown (Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences @ Cornell University), Milton Taam
(Electric Software, Inc.), Andrew Hunter (Professor of chemical and Biological Engineering, Cornell
University) "A commentary on "The greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas in shale formations" by R.W.
Howarth, R. Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea." Climatic Change, 2012, pg.
http://cce.cornell.edu/EnergyClimateChange/NaturalGasDev/Documents/PDFs/FINAL%20Short%20Ver
sion%2010-4-11.pdf .
Howarth et al. were correct to highlight concerns that leakage of methane during production and transmission could significantly affect the
greenhouse impact of natural gas, especially gas extracted from shales. And we concur with them that much better data is needed to monitor this
leakage. However, our
review of their own sources finds no evidence that gas is being vented directly into
the atmosphere at rates that could justify their conclusions. In contrast their sources make clear
that there are effective technologies to reduce methane emissions to the point they are an
insignificant addition to methanes greenhouse combustion footprint, if indeed this is not already
the case. More reasonable estimates of production losses, and more appropriate bases of
comparison (electricity and a 100 year GWP) show natural gas, including shale gas, has half to
1/3rd the greenhouse impact of coal, and thus remains an attractive transition fuel to low carbon
alternatives.
results present, for the rst time, a quantitative insight on the scale of the climatewarming feedback from permafrost thaw and subsequent CH4 lake emission. The increase in CH4 emission
due to potential Arctic/boreal lake expansion represents a weak climate-warming feedback within
this century. This is consistent with previous studies (Anisimov, 2007; Huissteden et al., 2011; Delisle, 2007) that also
imply a small Arctic lake/wetland biogeochemical climate-warming feedback. Our experimental design does not explicitly consider the wetlands
potential CH4-emissions response (Shindell et al., 2004). As previously noted, the additional saturated area projected by our model is
characterized to be lake in terms of a CH4 emission source (to gauge an upper bound). Yet, in this way, if any presumed, additional lake area
would alternatively be wetland, to rst order we still account for this in terms of a CH4-emission response. Our lake identication scheme also
does not explicitly consider lake thermodynamics or thermo-geomorphologic distinction (e.g. thermokarst). Further,
buffering effects
from near-surface drainage (Huissteden et al., 2011; Avis et al., 2011) are not explicitly considered, however
these drainage effects would further weaken the already small feedback found. Other secondary factors not
explicitly considered in this study include: the insulating properties of soil organic matter (Lawrence et al., 2008), the response of CH4 emission
to soil-moisture dynamics, re disturbance, vegetation dynamics, as well as lake freeze-depth. Nevertheless, these considerations will likely not
change our overall conclusion: the
of gas hydrate as
an energy resource have often been overly optimistic, based in part on its very high methane
content and on its worldwide occurrence in continental margins. Although these attributes are attractive, geologic
settings, reservoir properties, and phase-equilibria considerations diminish the energy resource potential of natural gas hydrate. The possible
role of gas hydrate in global climate change has been often overstated. Although methane is a "greenhouse" gas in the
atmosphere, much methane from dissociated gas hydrate may never reach the atmosphere , but rather
may be converted to carbon dioxide and sequestered by the hydrosphere/biosphere before reaching the
atmosphere. Thus, methane from gas hydrate may have little opportunity to affect global climate change. However, submarine geohazards
(such as sediment instabilities and slope failures on local and regional scales, leading to debris flows, slumps, slides, and possible tsunamis)
caused by gas-hydrate dissociation are of immediate and increasing importance as humankind moves to exploit seabed resources in everdeepening waters of coastal oceans. The vulnerability of gas hydrate to temperature and sea level changes enhances the instability of deep-water
oceanic sediments, and thus human activities and installations in this setting can be affected.
HYDRATES, Ray Boswell, Prepared for the Resource and Supply Task Group, Working Document of
the North American Resource Development Study, 2011, accessed through Emory] // AG
Gas Hydrate linkages to Global Climate: Gas hydrate is an enormous global storehouse of organic carbon
in the form of methane gas. Over long time periods, gas hydrate can be thought of as a global capacitor
for organic carbon (Dickens, 2003), taking up methane during certain global environmental conditions,
and releasing methane during other environmental conditions. Because methane is a highly effective
greenhouse gas and rapidly oxidizes to carbon dioxide, which is a less effective but much more persistent
greenhouse gas, the release of substantial volumes of methane from gas hydrate accumulations could have
significant impacts on global climate (Archer, 2007). The actual potential for such release is not yet
well known. Early concepts such as gas hydrate release in response to sea-level and consequent
coeval hydrostatic pressure declines during Late Quaternary glacial periods have been shown to be
unlikely (Sowers, 2006), so some significant past climate changes on Earth have probably occurred
without any meaningful response/contribution from gas hydrate. Initial attempts to numerically
model the response of gas hydrate to changing climate scenarios has indicated that release of
methane would be gradual over a long time frame rather than catastrophic (Archer et al., 2009).
However, some highly significant past climate events, such as that which occurred 55 Ma ago (the
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum) do appear to exhibit geochemical signals consistent with rapid
large-scale gas hydrate dissociation. At present, this link is not confirmed (Dickens, 2011), but it does
appear possible that gas hydrate dissociation may have supplied methane to the atmosphere, and therefore
exacerbated, past climate warming events likely initiated by other causes. Gas hydrate dissociation has
also been linked to even more severe climatic changes in Earths ancient past (e.g. Kennedy et al.,
2008), although the data are inconclusive (Bristow et al., 2011).
The findings to date therefore indicate that gas hydrates can conceivably play a significant role in climate
events, particularly those that are large, acute, and global in scale. A major scientific question at present
is: are we on the cusp of a similar or perhaps even more acute, event (i.e., Cui et al., 2011). Recent
studies from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Shakhova et al., 2010) and from offshore Svalbard
(Westbrook et al., 2009) suggest release of methane from the Arctic. The connection between these
releases and gas hydrate remains unclear, and it is not established if these releases are new, or
simply newly discovered. Nonetheless, while the magnitude of arctic methane releases appear to be
minor in comparison to those from other methane sources, they clearly warrant further study.
2NCToo Expensive
Mining for hydrates would be too expensive, and dangerous.
Lena-Katharina Dpke, and Till Requate, 2014, [The economics of exploiting gas hydrates] Energy
Economics, Volume 42, March 2014, Pages 355364
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988313002430
To the best of our knowledge, (Walsh et al., 2009) were the first to mention gas hydrates in an economic journal. In their paper, they sum up
recent research on the resource potential of gas hydrates and estimate the gas prices at which the exploitation of gas hydrates would become
gas prices of around 712 $US/Mscf (US dollars per thousand standard cubic
feet) would be necessary to cover the costs involved in exploiting terrestrial hydrate deposits. For
marine hydrates, the costs of extraction would be 3.54 $US/Mscf higher than for a comparable
offshore deposit of conventional natural gas. In the context of offshore extraction, the authors also mention another level
profitable. They find that
of risks which cannot yet be quantified (p.821), which we interpret as the geological risk associated with extraction of offshore hydrates.
Economically, the discovery of gas hydrates may be beneficial for the world economy, as a) it may reduce the scarcity of fossil fuels, in
particular of natural gas, and b) as a low-carbon source of energy it can serve as a transition to zero-emission energies. Countries with access to
sea-floor resources according to Art. 77(1) UNCLOS, such as Norway, Russia, India, USA, China, Japan, New Zealand, Chile, and possibly others,
will benefit from exporting methane, but importers will also benefit from lower gas prices on the world market. On the other hand, the
even preventive
methane exploitation from gas hydrates contributes to global warming in two different ways, a) by
combustion and hence generation of CO2, and b) by methane leakage during the mining process.
Second, mining of the hydrates, i.e. removal of the cement, may also lead to the destabilization of
continental margins, and this may increase the risk of marine geohazards.
prospect has its drawbacks, since exploitation of gas hydrates may give rise to two kinds of externalities. First,
In this paper we present a model that addresses these two problems and the ongoing dissolution of the hydrates. The simple model has Arctic
methane hydrates as the only exhaustible resource whose stock is not only reduced by extraction but also by dissolution. We then assume that
economic damage is generated by a) accumulation of greenhouse gases, and b) by the risk of marine
earthquakes. To keep the model simple, we do not directly model substitutes for methane hydrates. However, we account for them in an
indirect way by assuming that there is a finite choke price on the demand side.
Our paper draws on the literature that links the exploitation of non-renewable resources to the externalities caused by releasing greenhouse
gases, e.g. Ulph and Ulph (1994), Tahvonen (1997), Hoel and Kverndokk (1996), and Farzin and Tahvonen (1996). Except for the latter, these
studies all assume complete recreation capability of the atmosphere modeled by linear decay of the pollution stock. Therefore the pollution
externality impacts on the timing of extraction but does not affect the amount extracted, and the resource stock is asymptotically reduced to a
certain level when extraction costs are sufficiently high. The main conclusion from this literature is that an optimal emission tax may be nonmonotonic, increasing in the first stage and decreasing in the final stage. Furthermore, our paper is related to studies with a focus on resource
scarcity and environmental constraints. For instance, Farzin, 1992 and Farzin, 1996 and Krautkraemer (1998), provide the basics for interpreting
the shadow values of resource extraction and greenhouse gas emissions in our model. Since the expected damage from geohazards depends on
the remaining resource stock and therefore assigns a value to a positive stock level, our model also relates to Krautkraemer (1985)and Beltratti
et al. (1994), who account for an amenity value of the resource stock.
in a social optimum some of the resource will be left in situ and extraction will not only approach zero but actually will be zero at some point in
time.
If, by contrast, the choke price exceeds these overall social costs, the well-known Hotelling solution will apply, i.e. the resource will be used up
completely in finite time. Only in the case where the two magnitudes are equal can the standard result of stock-externality models be
maintained, i.e. the resource will be reduced to zero in infinite time, and extraction rates though small will remain positive for all time. We
also look at optimal policies for decentralizing the first-best outcome. We show that this can be done by charging a single tax on resource
extraction that accounts for both stock externalities.
Department of
Energy meeting summary: "Alternatively, an undersea earthquake today, say off the Blake Ridge
or the coast of Japan or California might loosen and cause some of the sediment to slide down the
ridge or slump, exposing the hydrate layer to the warmer water. That in turn could cause a chain
reaction of events, leading to the release of massive quantities of methane. Another possibility is
drilling and other activities related to exploration and recovery of methane hydrates as an energy
resource. The hydrates tend to occur in the pores of sediment and help to bind it together.
Attempting to remove the hydrates may cause the sediment to collapse and release the hydrates. So,
it may not take thousands of years to warm the ocean and the sediments enough to cause massive
releases, only lots of drilling rigs. Returning to the 4 GtC release scenario, assume such a release
occurs over a one-year period sometime in the next 50 years as result of slope failure. According to the
Report of the Methane Hydrate Advisory Committee, Catastrophic slope failure appears to be necessary to release a
sufficiently large quantity of methane rapidly enough to be transported to the atmosphere without
significant oxidation or dissolution. In this event, methane will enter the atmosphere as methane
gas. It will have a residence time of several decades and a global warming potential of 62 times that
of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. This would be the equivalent of 248 GtC as carbon dioxide or 31 times the annual
man-made GHG emissions of today. Put another way, this would have the impact of nearly 30 years worth of GHG
warming all at once. The result would almost certainly be a rapid rise in the average air temperature, perhaps as much as 3F
immediately. This might be tolerable if thats as far as things go. But, just like 15,000 years ago, if the feedback mechanisms
kick in, we can expect rapid melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice and an overall temperature
increase of 30F." Since writing the first 3 instalments of this investigative series, the race to drill methane hydrates has
begun in Japan. New Zealand, in a joint venture with Germany, is the next in line to commence. 1 February 2011: "Seabed drilling
exploration for methane hydrate in coastal waters, utilizing a world-class deep sea exploration vessel, is scheduled to start Saturday. In the
planned exploration, the Chikyu is expected to drill 100 meters to 400 meters into the seabed, which lies at a depth of 700 meters to 1,000 meters.
The geological structure of layers surrounding the hydrate, and
are among the subjects to be surveyed. The Chikyu uses state-of-the-art equipment able to drill as deep as 7,000 meters under the
seabed." On 11 March 2011, the world witnessed one of the most powerful earthquakes since 1900, devastating the country of Japan. It has
resulted in anuclear catastrophe still unfolding. Lethal tsunamis followed the earthquake, and were not limited to Japan. A wildlife sanctuary
situated on a tiny atoll near Hawaii lay victim to one such resulting tsunami, wiping out thousands of endangered seabirds and other animals.
Exposure to radiationcontinues to threaten citizens as far away as California. The video below features Dr Helen Caldicott speaking in Montreal,
Canada: UN lies about nuclear threat. Caldicott has been named one of the most influential women of the 20th Century by the Smithsonian
Institute. (Filmed on 18 March 2011: 5:06) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65ptQASTKCk On
to invasive deep drilling? As the late Carl Sagan, NASA Distinguished Public Service Medal recipient, has eloquently stated: Absence of
evidence is not evidence of absence. It appears that the recent drilling into the Nankai Trough fault line is not to blame in the case of Japan, as the
fault line which ruptured is said to be different than that of the Tokai area, where the Nankai Trough fault line exists. However, the impact from
the methane hydrate drilling, if it did proceed on 5 February 2011, as planned, is unknown. Methane hydrates, deposited on the seafloor, are
present all along the Pacific coast from Kyushu to the Tokai district.
hundred times the amount consumed per year in Japan). (Source: Geological Survey of Japan) Image on right represents global methane hydrates.
The overview of the first offshore production test of methane hydrate in the Nankai Trough undertaken by Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National
Corporation (JOGMEC) can be read here. The final selection on the test location will be made by the end of March 2011. The Japanese citizens
have been inundated with untold pain and suffering. It is unconscionable to expect the Japanese people to further risk themselves and their
children, for corporate wealth, yet, that is exactly what the Japanese government, with support from the Canadian Government and other major
greenhouse-gas emitting states are expecting: 26 December 2007, Bloomberg, Japan Mines 'Flammable Ice,' Flirts With Environmental
Disaster: ''Fifty-five million years ago the world's climate was catastrophically changed when volcanoes melted natural gas frozen in the seabed.
Now Japan plans to drill for the same icy crystals to end its reliance on imported energy ... A
than 1C has enabled the oceans to warm to the extent that the unimaginable has happened. The
fuse has reached the Arctic methane hydrates, which are melting on the ocean floor. This single factor is
the most dire emergency to all life on the planet today. Detonating the Methane Time Bomb If this time bomb is allowed to detonate, it will wipe
out life on this planet. Dr.
Ira Leifer, researcher at the Marine Science Institute:"The Arctic has enough
buried methane that a one percent release would quadruple global concentrations of atmospheric
methane. That's the equivalent of increasing CO2 by a factor of ten.... It would be pretty close to
the end of civilization as we know it, and this could happen. It doesn't mean it's going to happen but we want people to be
aware [of the possibility]." (In a follow-up communication from Ira Leifer, for clarification, he notes that a factor of 10 has huge uncertainties,
that it would probably be something like that but worse. Methane (CH4) has the same forcing on a 20 year time scale (IPCC, 2007) as CO2, but
does not overlap with water vapor bands, and is not saturated in its absorption bands, unlike CO2, hence increasing factor of 4 to factor of 10.)
Although governments have been targeting a 2C temperature rise which would be cataclysmic today (barring technologies to cool the planet
and remove CO2 from the atmosphere safely) we are absolutely committed to at least a doubling of today's temperature increase (which is 0.8C)
within a few decades. (The Ramanathan and Feng 2008 paper, based on GHG emissions alone (without feedbacks), demonstrates a 2.4C
eventual warming if atmospheric greenhouse gas forcing continues at today's levels: "Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as
envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4C.")
This paper cites a risk range of up to 4.3C as the commitment. All the components for the runaway scenario that James Hansen speaks of are
now operant at 0.8C. Abrupt runaway warming adding an additional 1C per year is a possibility that could start anytime. This understanding
comes from ice core studies of the Younger Dryas abrupt global temperature change event .
of the methane reacts with the oxygen in the water to form carbon dioxide, another greenhouse gas.
In sea water, this forms carbonic acid, which adds to further ocean acidification. The Arctic ocean
water is acidifying rapidly. Research indicates that 10% of the Arctic Ocean will be corrosively
acidic by 2018; 50% by 2050; and 100% by 2100. In October 2009, Professor Jean-Pierre Gattuso,
of France's Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, said: "Over the whole planet, there will
be a threefold increase in the average acidity of the oceans, which is unprecedented during the past
20 million years." To date, almost none of the Arctic (or anywhere else) has been surveyed in a way
that might detect methane releases like the Svalbard releases. Two things are certain: the two
shelves the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the West Svalbard continental shelf are in motion to
emit a massive amount of methane; and the IPCC has omitted methane feedbacks, the most
dangerous aspect of climate change, from reports and models. Shakhova's studies have been critical in understanding
the dire urgency we have before us. Prior to Shakhova's findings, scientists long feared that this scenario could happen, generating huge positive
feedbacks in the enhanced greenhouse effect from GHG emissions, but assumed methane escaping into the atmosphere was not a possibility for at
least another century. This delay-in-release theory, now proven to be mistaken, was based upon scientists' assumptions and their models with
minimal evidence. This is just one example of why we must stop modelling when we are already acutely aware we are in the greatest emergency
our species has ever faced. Models, based on future predictions (which have already proven to be dangerous, optimistic and incorrect
minimizing our sense of an emergency), enable a society and state governments to deny our current reality, effectively eradicating humanity's
possibility for survival. Sergei Zimov, a scientist studying climate change in Russia's Arctic for 30 years, fears that as the permafrost thaws and as
the organic matter in it becomes exposed to the air, global warming predictions will have to be drastically accelerated, even beyond some of the
most pessimistic forecasts. Zimov: The thawing permafrost "will lead to a type of global warming which will be impossible to stop. The
deposits of organic matter in these soils are so gigantic that they dwarf global oil reserves." Zimov continues: "US government statistics show
mankind emits about 7 billion tons of carbon a year. Permafrost areas hold 500 billion tons of carbon, which can fast turn into greenhouse
gases. If you don't stop emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere ... the Kyoto Protocol (an international pact aimed at reducing
greenhouse emissions) will seem like childish prattle." The video below, filmed in January 2008, shows thin ice overlying the methane seep at
Atqasuk, which is bubbling like boiling water. (2010: 2:43) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KlBev6N5m8&feature=player_embedded It is
critical to reiterate how abrupt shifts in climate can occur in very short timescales. Ice core evidence is key. Greenland ice core records show that
during the last glacial stage (100,000 11,500 years ago) the temperature there alternately warmed and cooled several times by more than 10C.
This was accompanied by major climate change around the northern hemisphere, felt particularly strongly in the North Atlantic region. Each
warm and cold episode took just a few decades to develop. Most of Earth's extinction events have now been linked to extreme climate changes
and for most of these extinction events, methane hydrates have been cited as playing a role. Today, we CAN reduce our CO2 emissions from
fossil fuels, whereas we WILL NOT BE ABLE TO reduce methane emissions once they begin to accelerate once they begin to accelerate from
carbon feedback. Such massive natural forces will take over and change our world and be absolutely out of our control. Such an event will
initially likely result in the melting of the Antarctic icecap, which would raise sea levels by 50 metres, as well as, completely change the climates
of the world. It is therefore beyond obvious that today's 0.8C temperature rise is ALREADY too high to keep the Arctic permafrost safe.
Therefore, in order to avoid the possible catastrophic methane feedback that could be imminent, we must prepare to cool down the planet
immediately, instead of continuing to aim for a deadly 2C target recently revised upwards by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
from a dangerous level to an extremely dangerous level. In the following video titled Methane Hydrates: Natural Hazard or Natural Resource?
(2008 | 53:08) Renowned geochemist Miriam Kastner discusses whether or not methane hydrates are a hazard to climate change. 19:20 into the
video Kastner shows fascinating film footage which clearly demonstrates the extreme instability of hydrates. Ultimately, melting and venting
hydrates will, on our current emissions path, prove to be deadly. Ultimately, drilling hydrates to burn further gas will also prove to be deadly. The
only solution is to declare a planetary state of emergency to stop burning all fossil fuels. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSTm6cZjO14
Compromised Science | Serving the Propaganda Machine "It's difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends upon his not
understanding it." Upton Sinclair The role of scientists in explaining the implications of non-decision is critical, yet scientists have been
remarkably reticent to publicly criticize what they have privately slammed as totally unacceptable and inadequate targets. The few scientists who
are vocal run the risk of being effectively ignored, ridiculed or silenced due to corporate-controlled media and the psychological manipulation of
society. 11 January 2011: In an interview with Dr. Peter Carter, a founding director of the Canadian Association of Physicians for the
Environment,Carter accurately conveys our dire reality: "Tragically, with few noted individual exceptions (such as John Holdren, James Hansen,
Hans Shellnhuber, Kevin Anderson, Andrew Glikson), the climate scientists, and all the science organizations, are sticking to their policy of what
is, in effect, dangerous climate change denial. They avoid talking 'dangerous climate change' or warning of climate catastrophe. To eradicate any
doubt on accelerating climate dangers, climate scientists would have to say and explain how today's unavoidable amount and duration of global
warming, climate disruption, and ocean acidification are now catastrophically dangerous to our survival and to most of life." Carter continues:
"According to Stephen Schneider, 'The
IPCC does not determine risks and does not define what would
constitute dangerous interference with the climate system. The IPCC says that defining the
dangerous climate change is a value judgment that only the policymakers can make.' (The late Stephen
Schneider's website is here and he discusses the issue in this paper.) The scientists in general are sticking to this policy. National and international
climate policy discussions are being based formally on the absurd assumption that dangerous climate interference is still some time in the future
that can still be avoided, so there is no emergency. James Hansen asked the climate scientists to support his 2008 public statement that 'We really
have reached a point of a planetary emergency,' but none have. With no prospect of rapid drastic emissions reductions, we all need to be most
gravely concerned for the future of humanity and all life. We need climate scientists to understand that public and formal silence on the
catastrophic climate change dangers (or risks) to the huge, most-vulnerable human populations, to the future of civilization and to humanity is, in
effect, a powerful value judgement." It is beyond reckless for scientists to continue to insist on, thus wait for, absolute proof. Society must not
accept this. Rather, we must demand action based on the risk of unparalleled magnitude, which embraces the precautionary principle. We
continue to ignore methane in the same way that world governments and scientists continue to ignore the global food security crisis we will face
if temperatures are allowed to further increase. The
magnitudes. The IPCC assesses probability for the policy makers, but does not include magnitude.
To make matters worse, the probability results are derived from computer models invented by the climate scientists. The probability, is in fact,
only as reliable as the models, and the data fed into the models. The models are all experimental the computer runs are called experiments.
Therefore global heating due to methane hydrate presents a massive risk of planetary catastrophe today. We are in an abrupt global greenhouse
gas heating event right now, with the atmospheric concentration of global warming greenhouse gases being increased thousands of times faster
than any previous heating event in the history of planet Earth. By waiting for "absolute" proof, we are effectively guaranteeing that we will have
no chance in hell at preventing runaway climate change once these irreversible feedbacks are fully operation .
certainly take precedence. The risk formula can be applied for such a colossal catastrophic impact, even when there is too little data to calculate a
reliable probability. The grim reality coupled with common sense tells us unequivocally that the Arctic temperature is only going one way
upward. Therefore, at some point it will hit the thaw point (if it has not done so already) and no modeling is necessary to understand this simple
fact. "Catastrophic emissions cannot be ruled out." That is a main statement when pouring over scientific papers on methane. It reads like a
disclaimer along with the cautious language of possible, could, and other select language that allows us to continue denying our reality. Today,
the majority of published climate science is all framed to allow the fossil fuel industry to not only survive, but continue growing and globalizing.
When reviewing scientific papers, one cannot find any references that address the absolute necessity of stopping fossil fuel combustion. The most
important component of stabilizing our planet's climate simply is not addressed. It is both revealing and ominous that proponents of the
exploitation, which includes scientists, are suggesting that we now have to extract the methane to make the hydrates safe. Extracting the methane
is unavoidably dangerous as this would depressurize the local environment. The
been watching a geopolitical revolution get underway. Its much bigger and more
consequential than the Arab Spring, though the legacy media are giving it much less play. It will rearrange the global
chessboard, improving the position of some powers, weakening others. It is a powerful boost to
American power, reducing Americas strategic and economic liabilities while adding considerably
to its assets. And it dramatically changes the long term outlook for, among other things, the US dollar. In
line with Via Meadias policy of trying to focus attention on the most consequential events of the time, we will be following this story as it
unfolds, looking at the implications of the shifts now underway for world politics, the US economy, our domestic politics, and the green
movement.
While the chattering classes yammered on about American decline and peak oil, a quite different
future is taking shape. A world energy revolution is underway and it will be shaping the realities of
the 21st century when the Crash of 2008 and the Great Stagnation that followed only interest historians. A new age of
abundance for fossil fuels is upon us. And the center of gravity of the global energy picture is
shifting from the Middle East to North America.
The two biggest winners look to be Canada and the United States. Canada, with something like two
trillion barrels worth of conventional oil in its tar sands, and the United States with about a trillion
barrels of shale oil , are the planets new super giant energy powers. Throw in natural gas and coal,
and the United States is better supplied with fossil fuels than any other country on earth. Canada and
the United States are each richer in oil than Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia combined.
Further bolstering Americas new geopolitical edge, the rest of the western hemisphere is also rich in oil. Venezuela is now believed to have more
oil that Saudi Arabia, and Brazils offshore discoveries make it a significant factor in world oil markets as well.
Peak oil is a fiction North America is awash in hydrocarbons. It will solve their
economy internal link
Green 12 - An environmental scientist and policy analyst @ American Enterprise Institute [Kenneth P.
Green, North Americas energy wealth, American Enterprise Institute| July 9, 2012, 11:53 am, pg.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/07/north-americas-energy-wealth/
For decades now, the energy-narrative of North America, particularly the United States has been one of energy
scarcity. Weve been told, repeatedly, that the U.S. has surpassed peak oil, and 6 years ago, people were so worried about natural gas
supplies that we were talking about importing liquified natural gas from abroad (More on that here).
But the narrative of energy scarcity in North America is a fiction: We are not only energy-wealthy, we
are energy-wealthy beyond most peoples comprehension. Energy policy analyst Mark Mills spells out the energy
potential of North America in a new report published by the Manhattan Institute.
Some of the key findings of the report are:
The United States, Canada, and Mexico are awash in hydrocarbon resources: oil, natural gas, and
coal. The total North American hydrocarbon resource base is more than four times greater than all
the resources extant in the Middle East. And the United States alone is now the fastest-growing
producer of oil and natural gas in the world.
and export capabilities for all hydrocarbons over the next two
decades could yield as much as $7 trillion of value to the North American economy, with $5 trillion
of that accruing to the United States, including generating $1$2 trillion in tax receipts to federal
and local governments.
They cant solve the global debt crisis It makes their impact inevitable
Wolf 12 [Martin Wolf, A wave of sovereign and banking crises, Financial Times, Published
9:37 AM, 11 Jul 2012 Last update 9:37 AM, 11 Jul 2012, pg.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/European-crisis-US-economy-fiscal-consolidationau-pd20120711-W3UEP?opendocument&src=rss]
It is nearly five years since financial turmoil broke upon an unsuspecting world, in August 2007. So how are crisis-stricken high income countries
doing? Badly, is the only answer.
Of the six largest high income economies (plus the eurozone), only those of the US and Germany are
above previous peaks. Since the US was the epicentre of the early shocks, its recovery has been relatively good. Yet none of
these countries can be happy with its performance. While US gross domestic product has been more buoyant than that of
these other countries, its unemployment rate more than doubled, from 4.7 per cent in July 2007 to 10 per cent in October 2009.
Since then its unemployment has fallen only a little. But the US has still had a better performance than the eurozone, whose economy is stagnant
and whose latest rate of unemployment is 11.1 per cent, against 8.2 per cent in the US.
Economies stagnate, while policy is aggressive. The highest short-term interest rate offered by any of the central banks of the big high-income
economies is the 0.75 per cent offered by the European Central Bank. Balance
the big high-income countries, relative to GDP, since 2007. Japan, the US and UK continue to run very large fiscal deficits
for peacetime. Yet despite huge fiscal deficits, long-term interest rates on Japanese, US and UK
government bonds are very low, at 0.8, 1.5 and 1.6 per cent, respectively.
David Levy, of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, labels this conjuncture of sluggish economies with huge policy
stimuli a contained depression . The explanation is clear: a number of important economies are struggling
with excessive leverage, particularly in their household and financial sectors. In the US, for example, total
private sector debt rose from 112 per cent of GDP in 1976 to a peak of 296 per cent in 2008 (see chart). This ratio had fallen back to 250 per cent
by the end of the first quarter of 2012, which is where it was in 2003. In 2007, US gross private borrowing was 29 per cent of GDP. In 2009,
2010 and 2011, however, it was negative.
Above all, private sectors are running large surpluses of income over spending. In the US, the financial balance of
the private sector turned from a deficit of 2.4 per cent of GDP in the third quarter of 2007 to a surplus of 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of
2009. This massive shift would surely have caused a huge depression if the government had been unwilling to run offsetting fiscal deficits. That
is how the depression was contained.
The US is the most important of the crisis-hit economies. But it is not the only one to have experienced large private sector retrenchment: so has
the UK. In fact, the International Monetary Fund forecasts that the private sectors of all the large high-income countries will be in either balance
or surplus this year (see chart). It follows that these countries must be running large current account surpluses or large fiscal deficits. Germany is
doing the former. Others are running fiscal deficits. Since
No resource wars The academic lit on this issue is strong and deep
Verhoeven 12 - Lecturer of Politics and International Relations @ Oxford University. [Harry
Verhoeven, Dambisa Moyos Resource War Argument is Flawed, Politics in Spire, Posted on June 29,
2012 , pg. http://politicsinspires.org/2012/06/dambisa-moyos-resource-war-argument-is-flawed/
One of Moyos controversial arguments is that Chinas ascendency doesnt just put tremendous pressure on commodity markets, but is likely to
represent such a big demand shock that supply of key resources simply cant keep up. The consequence, for Moyo, is then that as countries
and the planet as a whole run out of resources, this will trigger violent conflict (e.g. Water Wars) between different states and communities
within states in an attempt to maintain their commodity entitlements. Moyo was thus uncriticically regurgitating the old Malthusian argument
about tragedies of the commons occurring, mostly in developing countries, with population growth and environmental factors as the cause of
growing poverty and civil strife.
Yet there
is a strong and deep academic literature, that draws on extensive interdisciplinary evidence
from economics, political science, anthropology and history, which shows how simplistic and
misguided such arguments about resource wars are, both when approached theoretically and
through Asian or African case studies. Both historically and contemporarirly, growing resource
scarcity does not tend to lead to conflict but to cooperation, even (or perhaps especially) in regions like the
Middle East and the Horn of Africa. Moreover, the idea that wars are caused by exogenous
environmental triggers as opposed to endogenous political-economic drivers has always been very convenient
for powerful groups who try to depolicitise asymmetries in power and wealth and argue that
scarcity is not man-made but really an Act of God that we cant or shouldnt contest.
The facts have changed, now we must change too. For the past 10 years an unlikely coalition of geologists,
oil drillers, bankers, military strategists and environmentalists has been warning that peak oil the
decline of global supplies is just around the corner. We had some strong reasons for doing so: production had slowed, the price had risen
sharply, depletion was widespread and appeared to be escalating. The first of the great resource crunches seemed about to strike.
Among environmentalists it was never clear, even to ourselves, whether or not we wanted it to happen. It had the potential both to shock the
world into economic transformation, averting future catastrophes, and to generate catastrophes of its own, including a shift into even more
damaging technologies, such as biofuels and petrol made from coal. Even so, peak oil was a powerful lever. Governments, businesses and voters
who seemed impervious to the moral case for cutting the use of fossil fuels might, we hoped, respond to the economic case.
Some of us made vague predictions, others were more specific. In all cases we were wrong. In 1975 MK Hubbert, a geoscientist working for
Shell who had correctly predicted the decline in US oil production, suggested that global supplies could peak in 1995. In 1997 the petroleum
geologist Colin Campbell estimated that it would happen before 2010. In 2003 the geophysicist Kenneth Deffeyes said he was "99% confident"
that peak oil would occur in 2004. In 2004, the Texas tycoon T Boone Pickens predicted that "never again will we pump more than 82m barrels"
per day of liquid fuels. (Average daily supply in May 2012 was 91m.) In 2005 the investment banker Matthew Simmons maintained that "Saudi
Arabia cannot materially grow its oil production". (Since then its output has risen from 9m barrels a day to 10m, and it has another 1.5m in
spare capacity.)
Peak oil hasn't happened, and it's unlikely to happen for a very long time.
A report by the oil executive Leonardo Maugeri, published by Harvard University, provides compelling evidence
that a new oil boom has begun. The constraints on oil supply over the past 10 years appear to have
had more to do with money than geology. The low prices before 2003 had discouraged investors from developing difficult
fields. The high prices of the past few years have changed that.
Maugeri's analysis of projects in 23 countries suggests that global oil supplies are likely to rise by a
net 17m barrels per day (to 110m) by 2020. This, he says, is "the largest potential addition to the world's oil
supply capacity since the 1980s". The investments required to make this boom happen depend on a
long-term price of $70 a barrel the current cost of Brent crude is $95. Money is now flooding into new oil: a
trillion dollars has been spent in the past two years; a record $600bn is lined up for 2012.
The country in which production is likely to rise most is Iraq, into which multinational companies are now sinking their money, and their claws.
But the bigger surprise is that the other great boom is likely to happen in the US. Hubbert's peak, the famous bell-shaped graph depicting the rise
and fall of American oil, is set to become Hubbert's Rollercoaster.
Investment there will concentrate on unconventional oil, especially shale oil (which, confusingly, is not the same as oil shale). Shale oil is highquality crude trapped in rocks through which it doesn't flow naturally.
There are, we now know, monstrous deposits in the United States: one estimate suggests that the Bakken
shales in North Dakota contain almost as much oil as Saudi Arabia (though less of it is extractable). And this
is one of 20 such formations in the US. Extracting shale oil requires horizontal drilling and fracking: a combination of high
prices and technological refinements has made them economically viable. Already production in North Dakota has risen from 100,000 barrels a
day in 2005 to 550,000 in January.
So this is where we are. The automatic correction resource depletion destroying the machine that was driving it that
many environmentalists foresaw is not going to happen. The problem we face is not that there is too
little oil, but that there is too much.
2NCCrisis Inevitable
Europe will trigger a global banking crisis European debt crisis will trigger their
Tverberg impact
Tushe 12 [Isida Tushe, Guest Scholar at Eurasia Review, Whos Keeping Europe Afloat? Is
Eurozone Collapse Beginning Of Second Great Depression?, Eurasia Review,
http://www.eurasiareview.com/02072012-whos-keeping-europe-afloat-is-eurozone-collapse-beginningof-second-great-depression-analysis/]
The recession of the 1930s caused failure in banks both in the U.S. and Europe to the point where the
exchange rate adjustments made affected world trade and the international capital flow which turned into a global depression; loses in GDP and
industrial production. Every
to the 1930s, todays collapse in trade, downturn in the economy, and fall in
asset prices calls for a serious concern by the EU leaders.
AT: Vents
1NC FrontlineVents
Underwater mapping for hydrothermal vents fails
Singh et al 07Ph.D. in Oceanography from MIT. [Towards High-resolution Imaging from
Underwater Vehicles, Hanumant Singh, Chris Roman, Oscar Pizarro, Ryan Eustice, and Ali Can, The
International Journal of Robotics Research, Volume 26, Number 55, 2007, pp 55-56, accessed from
Emory] // AG
A number of oceanographic applications require large area site surveys from underwater imaging
platforms. Such surveys are typically required to study hydrothermal vents and spreading ridges in
geology (Yoerger et al. 2000), ancient shipwrecks and settlements in archaeology (Ballard et al. 2002),
forensic studies of modern shipwrecks and airplane accidents (Howland 1999; NTSB 2002), and surveys
of benthic ecosystems and species in biology (Singh et al. 2004a). Scientific users in these disciplines
often rely on multiscalar, multisensor measurements to best characterize the environment.
At finer scales, for resolutions down to millimeters, optical imaging of the seafloor offers scientists a
high level of detail and ease of interpretation. However, light underwater suffers from significant
attenuation and backscatter , limiting the practical coverage of a single image to a few square
meters. To cover larger areas of interest, hundreds or thousands of images may be required. The
rapid attenuation of the visible spectrum in water implies that a composite view of a large area (or
photomosaic) can only be obtained by exploiting the redundancy in multiple overlapping images
distributed over the scene. Although there has been considerable effort in this regard for land-based
applications, the constraints on imaging underwater are different and are far more difficult to deal
with . Mosaicing assumes that images come from an ideal camera (with compensated lens distortion) and
that either the scene is planar or the camera is undergoing purely rotational motions. Under these
assumptions the camera motion will not induce parallax and therefore no 3D effects are involved
and the transformation between views can be correctly described by a 2D homography. These
assumptions often do not hold in underwater applications since light attenuation and backscatter
rule out the traditional land-based approach of acquiring distant, nearly orthographic imagery.
Underwater mosaics of scenes exhibiting significant 3D structure usually contain significant
distortions . In contrast to mosaicing, the information from multiple underwater views can be used to
extract structure and motion estimates using ideas from structure from motion (SFM) and
photogrammetry.
remain
skeptical that a nonstate actor could conduct a biological weapons strike capable of creating as many casualties
as a large strike using conventional explosives such as the October 2002 Bali bombings that resulted in 202 deaths or the March 2004 train
bombings in Madrid that killed 191. We do not disagree with Runges statements that actors such as al Qaeda have demonstrated an
interest in biological weapons. There is ample evidence that al Qaeda has a rudimentary biological weapons capability. However, there
is
a huge chasm of capability that separates intent and a rudimentary biological weapons program from a
biological weapons program that is capable of killing hundreds of thousands of people. Misconceptions About Biological
Weapons There are many misconceptions involving biological weapons. The three most common are that they are easy
to obtain, that they are easy to deploy effectively, and that, when used, they always cause massive casualties. While it is
certainly true that there are many different types of actors who can easily gain access to rudimentary biological agents, there are far
fewer actors who can actually isolate virulent strains of the agents, weaponize them and then effectively
employ these agents in a manner that will realistically pose a significant threat of causing mass casualties. While organisms such as
anthrax are present in the environment and are not difficult to obtain, more highly virulent strains of these tend to be far more difficult to
locate, isolate and replicate. Such efforts require highly skilled individuals and sophisticated laboratory equipment. Even
incredibly
deadly biological substances such as ricin and botulinum toxin are difficult to use in mass attacks. This difficulty arises
when one attempts to take a rudimentary biological substance and then convert it into a weaponized form a form that is potent enough
to be deadly and yet readily dispersed. Even if this weaponization hurdle can be overcome, once developed, the weaponized agent must
then be integrated with a weapons system that can effectively take large quantities of the agent and evenly distribute it in lethal doses to
During the past several decades in the era of modern terrorism, biological weapons
have been used very infrequently and with very little success. This fact alone serves to highlight the gap between
the intended targets.
the biological warfare misconceptions and reality. Militant groups desperately want to kill people and are constantly seeking new
innovations that will allow them to kill larger numbers of people. Certainly if biological weapons were as easily obtained, as easily
weaponized and as effective at producing mass casualties as commonly portrayed, militant groups would have used them far more
example of this was the rise and fall of the use of chlorine in militant attacks in Iraq. Anthrax As noted by Runge, the spore-forming
bacterium Bacillus anthracis is readily available in nature and can be deadly if inhaled, if ingested or if it comes into contact with a persons
skin. What constitutes a deadly dose of inhalation anthrax has not been precisely quantified, but is estimated to be somewhere between
8,000 and 50,000 spores. One gram of weaponized anthrax, such as that contained in the letters mailed to U.S. Sens. Tom Daschle and
Patrick Leahy in October 2001, can
20 and 100 million deaths. The letters mailed to Daschle and Leahy reportedly contained about one gram each for a total
estimated quantity of two grams of anthrax spores: enough to have theoretically killed between 40 and 200 million people. The U.S. Census
Bureau estimates that the current population of the United States is 304.7 million. In a worst-case scenario, the letters mailed to Daschle
and Leahy theoretically contained enough anthrax spores to kill nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population. Yet, in spite of their incredibly
deadly potential, those
letters (along with an estimated five other anthrax letters mailed in a prior wave to media outlets such as the
New York Post and the major television networks) killed only five people; another 22 victims were infected by the spores but
recovered after receiving medical treatment. This difference between the theoretical number of fatal victims hundreds of millions and
the actual number of victims five highlights the challenges in effectively distributing even a highly virulent and weaponized strain of an
organism to a large number of potential victims. To summarize: obtaining a biological agent is fairly simple. Isolating a virulent strain and
then weaponizing that strain is somewhat more difficult. But the key to biological warfare effectively distributing
a weaponized
agent to the intended target is the really difficult part of the process. Anyone planning a biological
attack against a large target such as a city needs to be concerned about a host of factors such as dilution, wind
velocity and direction, particle size and weight, the susceptibility of the disease to ultraviolet light,
heat, dryness or even rain. Small-scale localized attacks such as the 2001 anthrax letters or the 1984 salmonella attack undertaken
by the Bhagwan Shri Rajneesh cult are far easier to commit.
Bioweapons dont cause extinction -- empirical death tolls prove the impact is
minimal.
Leitenberg 05[Milton, Senior research scholar at the University of Maryland, Trained as a Scientist
and Moved into the Field of Arms Control in 1966, First American Recruited to Work at the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute, Affiliated with the Swedish Institute of International Affairs and
the Center for International Studies Peace Program at Cornell University, Senior Fellow at CISSM,
ASSESSING THE BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AND BIOTERRORISM THREAT,
http://www.cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/assessing_bw_threat.pdf]
The conclusions from these independent studies were uniform and mutually reinforcing. There is an
extremely low incidence of real biological (or chemical) events , in contrast to the number of hoaxes, the latter
spawned by administration and media hype since 1996 concerning the prospective likelihood and dangers of such events. A massive second wave
of hoaxes followed the anthrax incidents in the United States in October-November 2001, running into global totals of tens of thousands. It
is
that analysts producing tables of biological events not count hoaxes. A
hoax is not a biological event, nor is the word anthrax written on a slip of paper the same thing
as anthrax, or a pathogen, or a demonstration of threatall of which various analysts and even
government advisory groups have counted hoaxes as being on one occasion or another.79 Those
events that were real, and were actual examples of use, were overwhelmingly chemical, and even in
that category, involved the use of easily available, off-the-shelf, nonsynthesized industrial products.
Many of these were instances of personal murder, and not attempts at mass casualty use. The
Sands/Monterey compilation indicated that exactly one person was killed in the United States in the 100 years
between 1900 and 2000 as a result of an act of biological or chemical terrorism. Excluding the preparation of
ricin, a plant toxin that is relatively easier to prepare, there are only a few recorded instances in the years 1900 to
2000 of the preparation or attempted preparation of pathogens in a private laboratory by a
nonstate actor. The significant events to date are: 1984, the Rajneesh, The Dalles, Oregon, use of
salmonella on food; 1990-94, the Japanese Aum Shinrikyo groups unsuccessful attempts to
procure, produce and disperse anthrax and botulinum toxin;80 1999, November 2001, al-Qaida,81
the unsuccessful early efforts to obtain anthrax and to prepare a facility in which to do
microbiological work; October-November 2001, the successful Amerithrax distribution of a highquality dry-powder preparation of anthrax spores, which had been prepared within the preceding
24 months.
also extremely important
2NCMapping Fails
Magnetic mapping fails
Hamoudi et al 11Helmholts Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences.
[Aeromagnetic and Marine Measurements, Hamoudi Mohamed, Yoann Quesnel, Jerome Dyment, and
Vincent Lesur, Geomagnetic Observations and Models, Chapter 4, 2011, pp 57-103, accessed from
Emory] // AG
Sea-surface magnetic observations, typically acquired more than 2000 m above the magnetized
sources, lack sufficient resolution to address some scientific problems. Here resolution does not
means the resolution of the instrument but the ability of the recorded signal (the magnetic anomaly) to
detect a given variation of the causative physical property (the magnetization of a source body). Seasurface anomalies barely resolve the longest wavelengths of geomagnetic field intensity as recorded
by the oceanic crust (e.g., Canda and Kent 1992a, 1992b; Gee et al. 1996; Bouligand et al. 2006). Simple
forward modelling easily demonstrates that the details of these variations or the depiction of ore deposits
on the seafloor in association with hydrothermal vents, for instance, are beyond the reach of these data
(e.g., Tivey and Dyment 2010).
The magnetic field created by a point source decays as 1 r3 , where r is the distance to the source
body (ln (1r ) in the case of a 2D problem, i.e., a line source seen as a point source in cross section). The
only way to significantly improve the resolution of the magnetic signal caused by a source bodies is to
reduce the distance to these bodies. For marine magnetics, this means evolving from sea-surface to deepsea measurements.
History proves that technical difficulties and ideology prevent effective bioterror
Parachini 03, John, policy analyst at RAND, Autumn, 2003, The Washington Quarterly, p. lexis
The technical
capacity of groups to produce or acquire and effectively deliver unconventional weapons varies considerably.
Achieving catastrophic outcomes with unconventional weapons requires a considerable scale of operations. Only in a very few
cases have groups been able to amass the skills, knowledge, material, and equipment to perpetrate
attacks with unconventional weapons on a scale that comes close to that of the danger posed by terrorist attacks with
conventional explosives. To date, only Aum Shinrikyo and Al Qaeda have been able to achieve the scale of
operations required to mount serious unconventional weapons programs, but even these two groups
have encountered difficulties. Aum Shinrikyo, which had considerable financial resources, front companies, and members
with scientific talents, failed in all 10 of its biological weapons attacks. n18 Similarly, the group's sarin attack on the
The third explanation for the paucity of terrorist attacks using unconventional weapons is the technical hurdles involved.
Tokyo subway caused roughly the same number of fatalities as the average Palestinian suicide bomber attack. n19 Aside from some minor
efforts to develop the toxin ricin, Al Qaeda and its affiliated groups tend to use explosives delivered by suicide attackers as its weapon of
choice. During the last 25 years, terrorist attacks with unconventional weapons have inflicted far fewer casualties and fatalities than
indiscriminate terrorist bombings or suicide hijackings, n20 the tragic toll of the September 11 attacks being the most pronounced example.
In cases where terrorists have used unconventional weapons in the past, they mostly have used crude
toxic materials, not sophisticated, military-grade weapons. Aum is the one group that developed a chemical agent
that is commonly found in military arsenals. Otherwise, most cases have involved limited efforts to use industrial materials or industrial byproducts as weapons. Toxic warfare can pose considerable security challenges, but on balance, these types of threats pale in comparison to
the catastrophic terrorist attacks for which government authorities prepare in tabletop exercises. n21 In a survey of 60 tabletop exercises for
political vision, practical military utility, and moral codes all restrained them in part from seeking
and using unconventional weapons. In some cases, group leaders indicated to members that the use of chemical or biological
weapons would not be legitimate to their struggle. Hamas leader Abu Shannab, for one, stated that the use of poison was
contrary to Islamic teachings. n22 Although Hamas is a religiously based organization, its struggle to establish a Palestinian state
on Israeli territory and to eliminate Israel as a state is decidedly political.
AT: Tsunamis
1NC FrontlineTsunamis
All of their impact evidence is in the context of earthquake induced tsunamis. They
dont solve for earthquakes.
Greenemeier 11Technology and science journalist. [How Does an Earthquake Trigger Tsunamis
Thousands of Kilometers Away? Larry Greenemeier, Scientific American, 11 March 2011,
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/japan-earthquake-tsunami-waves/] // AG
How can an earthquake create a tsunami?
This tsunami was probably generated by an earthquake where the crust from beneath the Pacific
Ocean is diving down beneath Japan. What's happening is the uppermost 50 to 100 kilometers of the solid
earth in the Pacific Ocean is generally moving to the northwest at a speed that's very slow by our
standards, maybe several centimeters per year. But the crust around Japan is less dense and lighter
than the crust in the Pacific. When the two come together, the ocean crust goes down, and those two
plates really grind against each other. Along this area where the two are grinding, forces build up
over time. And then it will suddenly snap, where the Pacific plate will go down very suddenly and
the Asian plate that Japan is part of will sort of bounce up a little bit. The sudden motion of those
two plates displaces a huge volume of water, and that's what causes the tsunami.
ocean; some seismologists believe the earthquake has to be powerful enough to cause what is known as a
"submarine landslide," which pushes sediment off the continental shelf and into the deep ocean.
The most powerful earthquake to strike the East Coast in recent memory was a magnitude 5.8
quake that struck near Richmond, Va., in 2011. The earthquake that caused at least 220,000 deaths in
Haiti in 2010 was a magnitude 7.0 quake that struck land. Ebel says that quake was not associated with
a tsunami.
Solvency
1NC FrontlineSolvency
1D modeling solves better than EM mapping
Constable & Weiss 06Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Sandia National Laboratories.
[Mapping thin resistors and hydrocarbons with marine EM methods: Insights from 1D modeling,
Geophysics, Volume 71, No. 2, 2006, pp G43-G51, accessed through Emory] // AG
CONCLUSIONS
Although 3D modeling will be important in the interpretation of large CSEM and MT data sets over
targets of complicated geometry, simpler 1D modeling can be used reliably to design the survey
parameters, given information such as sediment resistivity, water depth, and target depth. Because
the marine CSEM method is not completely T-equivalent, particularly at higher frequencies where
inductive effects are greatest, reservoir thickness and resistivity can be estimated as separate
parameters. However, inversion of EM data without constraints or prior structural information will
be limited by the intrinsically smooth resolution kernels and, in particular, the radial mode CSEM
data, which otherwise carries most of the information about the target structure, requires the inclusion of
azimuthal mode CSEM data, or, more economically, MT data, to recover even a smooth version of the
target structure.