Exane 2

INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
PICK OF THE DAY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
Rating
LARGE CAPS
ABF
TP
EPS % ch.
%ch.
13e
14e
(=) X (-) 29
(+)
(5)
(5)
Brembo
(+)
27
(8)
Elia
(=)
(2)
Pace
(=)
TF1
(+)
Ansaldo STS
(+)
(7)
(5)
Steria
(+)
(6)
(6)
Elekta
(1)
SMALL & MID CAPS
ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS (=) f (-)

European Sugar: a turn for the worse
The market is rightly anticipating that the existing EU sugar regime will substantively be rolled
forward to 2020. We would however caution that the devil with such legislation is always in the detail.
We would not be at all surprised to see some measures targeted at further easing the market. While
in aggregate we are comfortable with consensus estimates, this is solely as a consequence of
materially lifting our Primark estimates. We believe the debate at ABF will now shift from pondering
Primark positives, to Sugar negatives. Mindful of the stocks marked outperformance and the
uncertainty surrounding the prospects in European Sugar, we believe it is now time for the shares to
take a breather.
BEIERSDORF AG (+)
Q412 results and 15 Questions for Management
RESULTS
There were some interesting observations during the Q4 presentation on current and forthcoming
innovations, and we get the sense that this is a true turnaround. Whereas sell-siders like us would
like more margin, now, CEO Heidenreich does not work on the sell-side. For this turnaround to be
sustainable, it needs to be top-line driven. The 16% margin will follow. Beiersdorf has all the makings
of being the next Henkel or Estee Lauder: a poor track record but with a new management team that
finally realises the clear potential. We see a material rebound in organic sales growth and material
expansion in margins in the quarters/years ahead. Near-term, the shares could pause here.
Admiral Group / First Quantum Minerals Ltd

/ Henkel Pref / Inmarsat / Legal & General /
Ophir Energy / SCOR / Swatch Group B /
Verbund...
MORRISON (-)
Unrealistic to emerge unscathed from a perfect storm
AGENDA
MEETINGS
Millicom / Nordea...
DIVIDENDS
BHP Billiton / CRH Plc / Shire Plc / TUI

Travel...
IN THE PRESS
Danske Bank / Edenred / Sacyr / Vodafone

Group ...
XSee
document
Morrison has a lot on its plate: trading is lagging the competition by a distance, sales are
haemorrhaging to the discounters, the store of the future is seemingly underwhelming and
convenience and on-line offerings have to be built. Investors need a firm base to forecasts and
reassurance that management has a coherent plan. We fear Morrison will be insufficiently bold on
the former and will struggle to communicate the latter. The commitment to grow the DPS by 10%
again in 2013/14e offers some support in a c.5% yield but, for us, the shares are best avoided.
KEY PUBLICATIONS
LARGE CAPS
ELEKTA (+): Ambitious but believable guidance - Fundamentals still valid
WOOD GROUP (+): Good results and solid 2013 guidance
SMALL & MID CAPS

ANSALDO STS (+): 2013 guidance below our estimate, but no big concerns
BANCO POPOLARE (+): Investment case driven by (adequate) solvency
BREMBO (+): Growth story continues unabated
ELIA (=): German gains, Belgian pains
PACE (=): Transforming Core Economics - Check
ROCKWOOL INTL B (+): 2012 FY postview plus 15 questions for management
STERIA (+): Increasing speculative appeal
TF1 (+): Tough ad trends but appeal remains
ECONOMY / STRATEGY / SECTOR / QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH

SEMICONDUCTOR: A relatively strong start to the year
Please refer to important disclosures

at the end of this report.
For the exclusive use of Jerome FOURTANIER at KARAKORAM GESTION (06-Mar-2013)
INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS (=) f (-)

Food & HPC - United Kingdom | ABF LN - ABF.L
Target price: 1,870p | 0% Upside

Price at 05 March 2013 | 1,866p
Report
European Sugar: a turn for the worse

Rating
Target price
EPS 13e
(=) X (-)
29%
3%
Rating
Food & HPC
Mkt cap (GBPbn / EURbn)
Free float (GBPbn / EURbn)
EV (GBPbn / EURbn)
Financials
EPS, Adjusted (p)
EPS, IBES (p)
Net dividend (p)
Sales (GBPm)
EBITA, Adj. (GBPm)
Net profit, Adj.(GBPm)
ROCE (%)
Net Debt/EBITDA, Adj. (x)
Valuation metrics*
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
EPS 14e
Underperform
Underperform
14.7 / 17.1
6.6 / 7.7
16.3 / 18.9
And all looks good in EU Sugar?

With EU Sugar prices strengthening at well over EUR700/T, FX upgrades
looming and the existing regime set to be rolled-forward to 2020, all looks good
in sugar. At least that is what consensus believes
09/12
09/13e
09/14e
09/15e
87.2
87.2
28.5
94.7
95.3
31.2
104.3
105.5
34.4
120.0
116.2
39.6
12,252
1,077
688
11.1
0.7
13,156
1,154
747
11.3
0.6
14,240
1,258
823
11.8
0.4
15,322
1,400
947
12.8
0.1
09/12
09/13e
09/14e
09/15e
13.7
2.4
4.6
0.9
7.6
10.4
1.5
19.7
1.7
2.6
1.2
10.5
14.1
2.1
17.9
1.8
3.7
1.1
9.5
12.7
2.0
15.6
2.1
5.0
1.0
8.4
11.1
1.9
* Yearly average price for FY ended 09/12
Performance (%)
1w
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
Rel. MSCI Europe
Rel. Food & HPC
2
(1)
(1)
6
1
4
27
11
13
59
26
35
Jeff Stent
(+44) 207 039 9469
jeff.stent@exanebnpparibas.com
A phenomenal share price performer

Both this year (YTD) and last, ABF has been the best performer within our
sector coverage, this performance principally stemming from the re-rating of
Primark.
The EU Sugar market is turning

The EU market is showing signs of softening. Recent auctions have seen a
precipitous decline in tariff auctions from well over EUR300/T to EUR141/T. The
latter implies a landed white price of a little over EUR600/T. Talking with
industry contacts, the mood has quickly darkened. We reduce our FY14e EU
sugar price assumption by EUR100/T.
Regime change: devil is in the detail
The market is rightly anticipating that the existing regime will substantively be
rolled forward to 2020. However, the devil is always in the detail. We would not
be at all surprised to see measures inacted to further ease the market. We
outline some of the more likely options.
Time for the shares to catch breath: we move to Underperform
We dont see material downside to FY13e/FY14e consensus earnings (courtesy
of materially lifting our Primark estimates). We do however believe that investor
mindsets will now shift from considering the magnitude of the positives at
Primark to the extent of the EU sugar negatives. Coupled with the stock trading
at a meaningful premium to its SOTP valuation (utilising Inditex as a retail
comp.) we believe some consolidation is now warranted; our target price moves
from GBP14.50 to GBP18.70 (we belatedly move to a SOTP based
methodology) and our recommendation moves from Neutral to Underperform.
Download document (37 pages)

Link to Exane BNP Paribas website
Link to Financial Highlights
James Wyatt
(+44) 203 430 8421
James.Wyatt@exanebnpparibas.com
Eamonn Ferry
(+44) 207 039 9404
eamonn.ferry@exanebnpparibas.com
James Bushnell
(+44) 207 039 9409
james.bushnell@exanebnpparibas.com
INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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BEIERSDORF AG (+)
Food & HPC - Germany | BEI GY - BEIG.DE
Target price: EUR70 | 4% Upside

Price at 05 March 2013 | EUR67.2
Postview
Q412 results and 15 Questions for Management

Rating
Target price
EPS 13
EPS 14e
(3%)
Rating
Food & HPC
Mkt cap/Free float (EURbn)
EV (EURbn)
Financials
12/12p
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
2.06
2.11
0.70
2.43
2.40
0.70
2.88
2.69
0.84
3.30
2.96
0.99
6,040
735
468
28.1
-
6,389
849
551
32.8
-
6,814
973
654
38.4
-
7,254
1,091
748
43.4
-
12/12p
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
25.8
1.3
2.8
1.7
11.3
13.7
6.0
27.7
1.0
3.6
2.0
12.7
15.1
7.6
23.3
1.2
4.2
1.8
10.9
12.7
7.3
20.4
1.5
4.8
1.6
9.4
10.9
6.9
EPS, Adjusted (EUR)

EPS, IBES (EUR)
Net dividend (EUR)
Sales (EURm)
EBITA, Adj. (EURm)
Net profit, Adj.(EURm)
ROCE (%)
Valuation metrics*
Outperform
Underperform
15.3 / 6.0
12.9
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
Performance (%)
1w
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
Rel. MSCI Europe
Rel. Food & HPC
1
(1)
0
3
(1)
2
10
3
5
41
16
27
Eamonn Ferry
(+44) 207 039 9404
eamonn.ferry@exanebnpparibas.com
Summary
In summary, a sizeable miss on margin, EBIT and EPS in Q412, although this
was largely caused by a one-off provision wrt. 'old' Chinese hair care products
that will be returned by the trade as the new range is launched.
News
We detail the main newsworthy items that may not have been gleaned from a
quick read of the results release. We would highlight in particular CEO
Heidenreichs EUR30m exposure to changes in Sales and EBIT in the
Consumer division in the years ahead.
Estimates / Target price
We tweak down our FY13 EPS (3%) to take account of a slightly lower margin
assumption and a slightly higher tax rate. We leave our EPS estimates for all
other years unchanged. Our target price of EUR70 also remains unchanged.
Investment Thesis
We get the sense here that this is a true turnaround. While sell-siders like us
would like more margin, now, Heidenreich does not work on the sell-side. For
this turnaround to be sustainable, it needs to be top-line driven. The 16%
margin will follow. Beiersdorf has all the makings of being the next Henkel or
Estee Lauder: a poor track record but with a new management team that finally
realises the clear potential. We see a material rebound in organic sales growth
and material expansion in margins in the quarters/years ahead. Near-term, the
shares could pause here.
15 Questions for Management
Why, given that Consumer LFL sales expanded close to +7% in two quarters of
2012 and close to +9% in another, did you not handily beat consensus margin
expectations? The GM in your Consumer division is in the high-60s after all:
where is the leverage?

Jeff Stent
James Bushnell
James Wyatt
INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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MORRISON (-)
Food Retail - United Kingdom | MRW LN - MRW.L
Target price: 230p | 13% Downside

Price at 05 March 2013 | 266p
News
Unrealistic to emerge unscathed from a perfect storm

Rating
Food Retail
Mkt cap (GBPbn / EURbn)
Free float (GBPbn / EURbn)
EV (GBPbn / EURbn)
Financials
EPS, Adjusted (p)
EPS, IBES (p)
Net dividend (p)
Sales (GBPm)
EBITA, Adj. (GBPm)
Net profit, Adj.(GBPm)
ROCE (%)
Valuation metrics*
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
Underperform
Neutral
5.9 / 6.9
5.9 / 6.9
8.4 / 9.8
01/13e
01/14e
01/15e
01/16e
26.0
26.5
11.8
24.4
26.4
13.0
25.2
27.5
13.3
27.0
27.4
14.2
17,834
966
649
8.8
1.7
18,009
918
584
8.0
1.9
18,596
941
595
8.0
1.8
19,219
987
636
8.2
1.7
01/13e
01/14e
01/15e
01/16e
10.7
4.3
0.5
0.5
6.6
9.1
1.1
10.9
4.9
2.5
0.5
6.4
9.2
1.0
10.5
5.0
5.2
0.5
6.2
8.9
0.9
9.9
5.3
5.8
0.4
5.9
8.5
0.9
* Yearly average prices for FY to end-01/12, 01/13
Performance (%)
1w
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
Rel. MSCI Europe
Rel. Food retail
(1)
2
0
4
2
2
(1)
(13)
(11)
(6)
(18)
(18)
John Kershaw
+44 203 430 8422
john.kershaw@exanebnpparibas.com
Andrew Gwynn
+44 203 430 8438
andrew.gwynn@exanebnpparibas.com
So much to do and say but investors need a firm floor to profits and broad
reassurance
With trading lagging the competition by a distance, sales haemorrhaging to the
discounters, the store of the future seemingly underwhelming and with
convenience and on-line offerings to build, Morrison has a lot on its plate. There
is plenty of explaining to do but management must avoid drowning in the detail
at the FY results on 14 March. Investors need a firm base to forecasts and
reassurance that management has a coherent plan. We fear Morrison will be
insufficiently bold on the former and will struggle to communicate the latter. The
commitment to grow the DPS 10% again in 2013/14E offers some support in a
c5% yield but, for us, the shares remain best avoided.
What cost to repel the discounters, recoup lost share and build
convenience and on-line?
Investors will want to understand how Morrison sets about stabilising trading
and providing solutions to the discounters threat whilst building a multi-channel
offering and generating greater customer loyalty (insight). However, the market
will want credible answers to why EBITDAR margins as high as Tescos should
be secure given Morrisons underperformance in a sector suffering excess
capacity addition and given perhaps cGBP20-25m extra start-up costs to incur
(on-line and convenience) in 2013/14. GBP300m of cost savings will help, but
we think consensus for c2.5% EBIT (post start-up cost) decline in FY14 looks
optimistic we are c5% below. On the positive, we think these pressures will
result in a further cutting in Morrisons new space ambitions.
How to position the brand?
We think management now appreciates the brand risks looking anachronistic
without a coherent on-line grocery offering and expect to hear more on a
national solution and of how it will knit into a multi-format estate. Perhaps more
pressing is how management looks to position the brand that is in danger of
going too up-market with its store of the future conversions (30% of selling
area). Adverts fronted by Ant & Dec may temporally attract mass-appeal but we
look for more on how Morrison wins back its differentiation with Market Street
and fresh food provenance, whilst re-emphasising its value credentials to keep
the discounters at bay. It is possible but will take time and likely will need
retrospective tweaks to the future-store model and margin investment.

INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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ELEKTA (+)
Healthcare Providers & Services - Sweden | EKTAB SS EKTAb.ST
Target price: SEK104 | 10% Upside

Price at 05 March 2013 | SEK94.9
Postview
Ambitious but believable guidance - Fundamentals still valid

Rating
Target price
EPS 12
EPS 13
(5%)
(8%)
(5%)
Rating
Healthcare Providers & Services
Mkt cap (SEKbn / EURbn)
Free float (SEKbn / EURbn)
EV (SEKbn / EURbn)
Financials
EPS, Adjusted (SEK)
EPS, IBES (SEK)
Net dividend (SEK)
Sales (SEKm)
EBITA, Adj. (SEKm)
Net profit, Adj.(SEKm)
ROCE (%)
Valuation metrics*
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
Outperform
Neutral
36.0 / 4.3
34.5 / 4.1
38.1 / 4.6
04/12
04/13e
04/14e
04/15e
3.03
3.20
0.28
3.42
3.83
1.26
4.44
4.60
1.60
5.35
5.41
1.92
9,048
1,726
1,135
19.8
1.4
10,133
1,973
1,324
18.5
1.0
11,490
2,507
1,735
22.2
0.5
12,985
2,975
2,102
25.2
0.1
04/12
04/13e
04/14e
04/15e
23.7
0.4
1.9
3.3
15.7
17.2
4.7
27.7
1.3
3.1
3.8
17.8
19.3
4.9
21.4
1.7
4.3
3.3
13.8
14.9
4.5
17.7
2.0
5.2
2.8
11.3
12.2
4.1
1w
1m
3m
12m
(3)
(4)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(6)
(6)
(7)
(11)
15
2
5
Performance (%)
Absolute
Rel. MSCI SMID
Rel. Healthcare Providers
Romain Zana
(+33) 1 44 95 58 79
romain.zana@exanebnpparibas.com
John Aldersley (Marketing analyst)
Julien Dormois
Strong miss on Q3 figures Sales and EBIT respectively 11% and 36%
below expectations
Q3 cc. order growth of +6% was not so bad (108% for Cons.Exane) and
implied further market share gain over Varian. But sales were weak primarily
due to postponed business in Middle East, wait-and-see attitude of US clients
(waiting for budget agreement / reimbursement rates). In all, organic sales
growth was -2% in Q3 but +9% over 9M12/13 (+1% in Q1; +27% in Q2).
Recurring EBIT was down 36% y/y (of which 8% from FX) mainly reflecting a
lack of volume. Net income was impacted by a one-off of EUR15m in
associated company (government project in Ghana).
Q4 guidance highly ambitiousbut believable
Despite the weak Q3, FY guidance was only revised by 3%, mainly to reflect the
recent currency volatility and cautious demand in the US. The >15% growth in
l.c. on both sales and recurring EBIT (with 3% negative impact from FX) implies
a strong Q4 of 18% organic growth and >35% EBIT growth. With the backlog
strong, the company is confident it can reach this target. It is hard to appreciate
the visibility that company has on Q4; however, it is worth noting that its track
record in guiding for Q4 (after 9M) has been spotless over the past ten years
(see Figure 4). Several arguments plead for a catch-up: 1) business
seasonality; 2) catch-up of brachytherapy sales (bundled to LINACs); 3) roll-out
of the new Versa HD LINAC (more efficient / 30% less power consumption,
etc.). Cash conversion target of >70% accordingly reiterated (44% over
9M12/13).
Investment case remains valid as fundamentals are solid and Elekta is
gaining market share
It would be unfair to say that we are not a bit nervous about the Q4 target.
However, we are convinced by the steady fundamentals of the radiotherapy
market (610% growth duopoly market; high medical need and increasing
penetration) and Elektas positioning (>30% of sales from EMs; m.s. gain over
leader Varian; great innovation cycle; potential Brazilian incremental
opportunity).
Outperform reiterated Optimistic EPS have been cut by 85% for 04/13e
and 04/14e
To match guidance, consensus will need to cut its estimates by roughly 34%.
The stock has fallen 7% over the past two weeks on cautious previews.

INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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WOOD GROUP (+)

Oil & Gas - United Kingdom | WG/ LN - WG.L
Target price: 1,080p | 42% Upside

Price at 04 March 2013 | 758p
Postview
Good results and solid 2013 guidance

Rating
Oil & Gas
Mkt cap (USDbn / GBPbn)
Free float (USDbn / GBPbn)
EV (USDbn / GBPbn)
Financials
EPS, Adjusted (p)
EPS, Adjusted (USD)
EPS, IBES (p)
Net dividend (p)
Sales (USDm)
EBITA, Adj. (USDm)
Net profit, Adj.(USDm)
ROCE (%)
Valuation metrics*
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
FY12 EBITA in line with consensus

FY12 EBITA was USD461m, in line with the consensus (USD461m) and 2%
above our forecast (USD453m). The company announced a final dividend of
GBp11.3/share, bringing the total for the year to 17p, roughly in line with
consensus at 17.4p.
Outperform
Neutral
4.1 / 2.7
4.0 / 2.6
4.3 / 2.8
12/12p
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
50.4
0.8
53.4
10.7
65.0
1.0
65.9
12.4
76.7
1.2
75.0
13.6
82.2
1.2
81.0
15.0
6,821
461
298
12.8
0.3
7,594
549
366
14.6
0.0
8,336
636
433
16.2
-
8,752
676
463
16.8
-
12/12p
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
15.0
1.4
0.7
0.7
9.1
10.0
1.8
11.7
1.6
6.5
0.6
7.1
7.8
1.6
9.9
1.8
8.3
0.5
5.9
6.4
1.5
9.2
2.0
9.8
0.4
5.2
5.6
1.3
Performance (%)
1w
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
Rel. MSCI Europe
Rel. Oil & Gas
(5)
(3)
(4)
(7)
(6)
(9)
(2)
(6)
(12)
1
7
(12)
Alexandre Marie
(+44) 207 039 9427
alexandre.marie@exanebnpparibas.com
2013 EBITA to grow 15%, underpinned by solid outlook in all divisions

For 2013, the company projects around 15% y/y growth in EBITA,
underpinned by revenue growth and margin expansion in Engineering (43% of
2013e EBITA), driving a 15% EBITA increase for the division. The company
expects a strong performance at PSN (43% of EBITA) powered in particular
by a significant improvement in Oman, where the company is working through
a loss-making contract. Finally, for GTS (14% of EBITA) management
anticipates an improvement in the Maintenance activity, mainly driven by selfhelp as the market remains soft; the contribution from Power Solutions is
anticipated to decline.
We expect no change in the consensus
Although consensus is slightly more optimistic than the guidance (+17% growth
in EBITA vs. guidances +15%), management appeared confident during the
presentation and comfortable with consensus expectations. We expect no major
changes to consensus at this stage. We forecast 19% EBITA growth in 2013e.
Outperform rating maintained
We continue to like Wood Group for its top-line growth and margin potential. We
think the end-market exposure to subsea (JPKenny) and topsides (Mustang)
should continue to support growth and pricing power in Engineering, while
geographic expansion and cross-business synergies add to the groups growth
potential.

Andrew Crispin (Marketing analyst)

Alejandro Demichelis
Alex Topouzoglou
INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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ANSALDO STS (+)

Capital Goods - Italy | STS IM - STS.MI

Postview
2013 guidance below our estimate, but no big concerns

Rating
Target price
Rating
Capital Goods
EV (EURbn)
Financials
EPS, Adjusted (EUR)
EPS, IBES (EUR)
Net dividend (EUR)
Sales (EURm)
EBITA, Adj. (EURm)
ROCE (%)
Valuation metrics*
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
EPS 13
EPS 14
(7%)
(5%)
Outperform
Outperform
1.1 / 0.7
0.8
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
0.47
0.49
0.18
0.54
0.54
0.19
0.63
0.59
0.22
0.68
0.63
0.24
1,248
117.1
75.7
-
1,332
128.4
85.8
-
1,466
148.5
100.1
-
1,557
161.9
109.2
-
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
13.0
2.9
4.3
0.6
5.2
6.2
(15.0)
13.3
2.6
4.8
0.6
5.9
6.5
(46.0)
11.4
3.1
7.8
0.5
4.7
5.2
(88.1)
10.5
3.3
9.9
0.5
4.0
4.4
(52.1)
2013 guidance below our estimates

Final 2012 results were in line with preliminary figures unveiled few weeks ago.
By contrast, the 2013 guidance (revenues at EUR1.25bn1.35bn, EBIT margin
at 9.5%, new orders at EUR1.5bn1.7bn and net cash at EUR300m320m) is
below our projections and slightly below consensus.
Not concerned by conservative guidance on new orders
The conservative guidance on new orders is not a point of concern for us. We
highlight that Ansaldo posted an order intake close to EUR2bn in 2010 and
2011. The initial guidance in both years was lower and the group underpromised and over-delivered. In particular, we understand that the guidance
assumes a very low likelihood of winning the big contract for the Riyadh metro
system (likely to be awarded in June 2013). The order intake could be higher
than the EUR1bn we originally expected and three not four consortia will
compete for the three separate lots (each for more than EUR1bn). The lower
guidance on EBIT margin is of more concern, but we believe it translates 1)
lower operational leverage (lower revenue guidance than expected); 2) the
revenue mix (the Q4 12 order intake was more skewed to the less profitable
signalling business) and 3) effects related to restructuring charges, which were
below our estimates (EUR6m, instead of EUR8m in 2012). We also understand
that price competition in signalling remains high.
Estimates slightly revised down
We have revised our estimates down slightly in line with the guidance (apart
from new orders left unchanged at EUR2bn). However, we believe that margin
expansion is just postponed, and our medium-term estimates are unchanged.
Performance (%)
1w
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
Rel. MSCI SMID
Rel. Capital Goods
(1)
(5)
(4)
(4)
(10)
(9)
6
(4)
(3)
14
(6)
(2)
Giuseppe Marsella
(+39) 02 89 63 17 20
giuseppe.marsella@exanebnpparibas.com
Outperform reiterated with TP of EUR9.0

Our DCF valuation is more or less unchanged and we reiterate our Outperform
rating with a TP of EUR9.0. Weakness after the disappointing guidance could
open a good entry point. The group will provide an update of its business plan
on 26 March.

Michele Baldelli
INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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BANCO POPOLARE (+)

Banks - Italy | BP IM - BAPO.MI
Target price: EUR1.90 | 55% Upside

News
Investment case driven by (adequate) solvency

Rating
Target price
EPS 12
EPS 13e
NM
Rating
Banks
Financials
Outperform
Outperform
2.2 / 2.1
12/12p
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
(0.25)
(0.31)
0.04
4.97
3.63
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.11
5.13
3.79
0.04
0.21
0.21
0.17
5.32
3.98
0.05
0.24
0.24
0.24
5.51
4.17
0.06
Net att. profit rep. (EURm) (549.8)

Net att. profit adj. (EURm)
(437)
Tangible BV (EUR)
6,411
ROTE adj. (%)
(6.9)
Equity Tier 1 Ratio (%)
9.8
234.9
235
6,686
3.6
9.8
370.5
371
7,026
5.4
9.6
430.5
431
7,358
6.0
9.4
12/12p
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
0.23
0.32
0.46
0.22
0.0
-
9.2
0.24
0.32
0.41
0.32
3.3
30.0
5.8
0.23
0.31
4.1
23.8
5.0
0.22
0.29
4.9
24.6
EPS, Adjusted (EUR)

EPS, Reported (EUR)
EPS, IBES (EUR)
BVPS (EUR)
Tangible BVPS (EUR)
DVPS (EUR)
Valuation metrics*
P/E (x)
P/BVPS (x)
P/Tangible BVPS (x)
- High (x)
- Low (x)
Net yield (%)
Payout (%)
Performance (%)
1w
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
Rel. MSCI Europe
Rel. Banks
(14)
(12)
(14)
(15)
(15)
(16)
5
(2)
0
(23)
(33)
(31)
Q4 12 profit warning due to one-offs 2013-15 EPS estimates unchanged

BP has pre-announced a cEUR500m loss for Q4 12 (excluding possible noncash adjustments such as the potential write-down of goodwill on AGOS and
additional losses due to negative fair value of own debt moves). The full P&L
has not been provided (the FY results are due on Friday 15 March). In our view,
the difference with our estimate of a EUR41m loss relates entirely to items that
we deem non-recurring: in Q4 BP will consolidate a EUR100m loss on its 39%
stake in AGOS (we estimated a EUR50m loss); also it will post EUR650m for
LLPs, partly as a consequence of the Bank of Italys audit on the adequacy of
provisions (our estimate of EUR253m did not include any negative adjustments
related to the BoIs audit, as is the case for all other Italian banks). We estimate
the coverage of impaired loans to have increased by c4pp to c30%.
Limited impact on CT1 No uncertainty about BPs share count
The impact of the Q4 loss on BPs solvency is limited. This is because the
shortfall of expected losses relative to the stock of accounting provisions is
already deducted from core tier 1 capital under B2.5 (without any tax offset)
and the deduction will increase to 100% under Basel 3. Indeed BPs EBA CT1
ratio will remain above 9%, implying a B2.5 CT1 ratio above 9.6% (we estimate
9.8%). Although we are conscious that BPs solvency is not the best in class
(B3 FL CT1 ratio of 8.3% in 2013e) as, on our estimate, the banks CT1 ratio
under prevailing regulations will remain well above 9% in any given year, we still
rule out conversion of the outstanding EUR1bn soft convertible. We note also
that conversion of the bond at maturity would dilute our 2014e adj. EPS
estimates by only c10%, increasing the banks CT1 ratio by c60bp (c30%
dilution for a 170bp increase in CT1 in the event of early conversion).
We reiterate our outperform rating
In our view, the current valuation of c0.3x TBV 13e (for a 2015 ROTE of 6%)
and 5.8x P/E 14e discounts an increase in BPs share count, which we think is
not going to materialise. We reiterate our Outperform rating and our EUR1.90
price target.

Andrea Vercellone
(+44) 203 430 8424
andrea.vercellone@exanebnpparibas.com
Colin Hector (Marketing analyst)
Alastair Macintosh (Marketing analyst)
Daniel Davies
Andreas Hakansson
Santiago Lpez Daz
Abhishek Parthasarathy
Tom Rayner
Guillaume Tiberghien
Jag Yogarajah
INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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BREMBO (+)
Automotive - Italy | BRE IM - BRBI.MI

Postview
Growth story continues unabated

Rating
Target price
EPS 13
27%
(8%)
Rating
Automotive
Mkt cap/Free float (EURm)
EV (EURm)
Financials
EPS, Adjusted (EUR)
EPS, IBES (EUR)
Net dividend (EUR)
Sales (EURm)
EBITA, Adj. (EURm)
ROCE (%)
Valuation metrics*
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
EPS 14e
Outperform
Neutral
732 / 300
1,070
12/11
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
0.58
0.66
0.30
0.89
0.84
0.40
0.94
0.98
0.41
1.26
1.15
0.45
1,255
73.0
37.6
8.9
2.3
1,389
89.2
57.8
13.2
2.1
1,500
99.6
61.5
11.2
1.8
1,649
129.2
82.5
14.4
1.3
12/11
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
14.0
3.7
(6.9)
0.7
6.0
12.1
1.5
9.4
4.8
6.4
0.6
5.2
10.1
1.4
11.9
3.6
4.4
0.7
5.7
10.7
1.6
8.9
4.1
10.5
0.6
4.5
7.9
1.5
Performance (%)
Absolute
Rel. MSCI SMID
Rel. Automotive
1w
1m
3m
12m
1
2
0
6
5
3
14
5
6
18
9
4
Michele Baldelli
(+39) 02 89 63 17 26
michele.baldelli@exanebnpparibas.com
Giuseppe Marsella
FY12 results slightly better than expected NWC management the bright
spot
Top-line growth (+10.7% for FY12 vs. +9.4%e) and margins were slightly ahead
of our expectations (EBITDA margin at 12.4% vs. 12.3% expected). Tax rate
was 6% instead of the normalized level (25%) due to one offs (use of Italian and
Polish tax assets). Net debt was better than expected at EUR320.7m (vs.
EUR349m expected) thanks to a very tight control of the net working capital.
Proposed dividend is EUR40cents/share, with a yield of 4%.
2013 guidance does not surprise consensus, but we find it to be
conservative
Brembo expects top line growth of 7%/9% in 2013 (consensus +6%, Exane
+8%) and an EBITDA margin similar to the one recorded in 2012 (12.4%). We
find the margin guidance to be a bit conservative and we expect 12.7% EBITDA
margin in 2013 (consensus is at 12.9%).
EPS revised down by 8% in 2013e and up by +1% in 2014e
We revised down our 2013e EPS estimates due to the higher D&A expected
and the slightly lower EBITDA margin (12.7% vs. 13.1% previously) due to the
ongoing ramp-up costs of the Czech and Chinese plants, which are taking
longer to break even than previously expected. We have slightly increased our
EPS for 2014 on the back of a higher margin assumption as the company is
fairly confident of restoring a 14% EBITDA margin by 2014 with the current
production footprint.
Outperform reiterated TP raised from EUR10.4 to EUR13.2 a structural
growth story
Brembo is one of the few structural growth stories in the European auto
suppliers industry due to its good positioning (i.e. premium) and competitive
product offering (i.e. lightweight callipers). We increase our TP to EUR13.2
(from EUR10.4) as we roll our valuation over to 2014 figures (a year when all
the plants are expected to reach full profitability). We apply the average
between a multiple based methodology (historical avg. EV/EBIT and EV/CE
ratios) and a DCF (WACC at 11%). We believe that the growth story of Brembo
should also continue beyond 2014 (+8.5% sales CAGR in 2015-16) and for this
reason we think that applying historical average multiples is still reasonable.

INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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ELIA (=)
Utilities - Belgium | ELI BB - ELI.BR

Postview
German gains, Belgian pains

Rating
Target price
EPS 13
EPS 14
9%
2%
(2%)
Rating
Utilities
EV (EURbn)
Financials
12/11
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
2.29
1.47
2.58
2.57
1.47
2.48
2.38
1.47
2.45
2.47
1.47
1,278
308.0
137.5
4.4
5.7
1,310
305.6
155.0
3.9
6.4
1,382
347.8
149.0
4.4
5.8
1,400
345.1
147.3
4.2
6.1
12/11
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
12.8
5.0
5.6
3.4
9.8
14.2
0.9
12.2
4.7
(13.8)
3.7
10.5
15.6
0.9
13.5
4.4
2.2
3.6
9.6
14.2
0.9
13.7
4.4
(5.8)
3.7
10.0
15.0
0.9
EPS, Adjusted (EUR)

EPS, IBES (EUR)
Net dividend (EUR)
Sales (EURm)
EBITA, Adj. (EURm)
ROCE (%)
Valuation metrics*
Neutral
Outperform
2.0 / 0.9
5.0
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
Performance (%)
Absolute
Rel. MSCI SMID
Rel. Utilities
1w
1m
3m
12m
(1)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(5)
(7)
3
4
(5)
10
11
(6)
Olivier Van Doosselaere

(+44) 207 039 9508
olivier.vandoosselaere@exanebnpparibas.com
Benjamin Leyre
Philip Gottschalk
Manuel Palomo
Iain Turner
FY12 results supported by operations in Germany

Elia reported a 13% y/y increase in net profit, which stood a sound 16% above
expectations. Net profit at the Belgian operations declined by 16% y/y, as
expected and mainly driven by lower Belgian bond yields (which are the basis
for the setting of regulated allowed return on equity). This was more than offset
by the net profit at the German subsidiary 50Hertz, which doubled y/y and stood
38% above our forecast. The bulk of this (30%) is non-recurring, however, and
linked to one-off compensations for past under-recoveries obtained through
changes in the regulation in 2012.
Capex to rise new equity may be needed
Elia expects to invest c.EUR200m in its Belgian operations in FY13 (of which
41% maintenance), up from EUR150m in FY12, and we could see significant
further capex hikes in the coming years as the five main expansion projects
alone will consume a total of EUR1.5bnEUR2bn. Given the high leverage on
the balance sheet on the Belgian side (58% FY12 gearing), we do not exclude
the need for new equity. For 50Hertz, capex will sharply rise to EUR415m in
FY13 (from EUR253m in FY12), and is likely to remain at this peak level for a
number of years. But it should be financeable given the low leverage on the
subsidiarys balance sheet today (< 25% adj. gearing).
Slight revision of our estimates limited dividend upside in the near term
Elia maintained a flat dividend in FY12 of EUR1.47 despite the rise in net profit,
which is in our view linked to the significant capex ramp-up. Given that we
expect earnings to decline in FY13e (lower Belgian bond yields) and FY14e (no
more compensation for past under-recoveries in Germany), we anticipate a flat
dividend for the next two years.
Neutral rating maintained target price rolled forward
We roll forward our valuation to end-2013 (from end-2012 previously), which
lifts our valuation by 9% to EUR37/s, in line with equity RAB, which reflects a
fair remuneration obtained overall in Belgium and Germany. At 9.6x EV/EBITDA
13e, Elia trades significantly above the infrastructure utilities peer average
(9.0x), which is in our view justified by the more defensive Belgian regulation.

INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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PACE (=)
IT Hardware - United Kingdom | PIC LN - PIC.L
Target price: GBP2.45 | 8% Upside

Price at 04 March 2013 | GBP2.28
Postview
Transforming Core Economics - Check

Rating
Target price
EPS 13
EPS 14
7%
5%
7%
Rating
IT Hardware
Mkt cap (USDbn / GBPm)
Free float (USDbn / GBPm)
EV (USDbn / GBPm)
Financials
EPS, Adjusted (GBP)
EPS, Adjusted (USD)
EPS, IBES (GBP)
Net dividend (GBP)
Sales (USDm)
EBITA, Adj. (USDm)
Net profit, Adj.(USDm)
ROCE (%)
Valuation metrics*
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
Neutral
Underperform
1.0 / 683
1.0 / 683
1.1 / 731.1
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
0.21
0.33
0.20
0.03
0.30
0.45
0.26
0.03
0.35
0.52
0.28
0.05
0.35
0.52
0.22
0.06
2,403
155.0
103.1
16.0
1.4
2,487
199.2
142.8
23.9
0.3
2,538
224.1
164.7
28.6
-
2,542
224.7
165.1
30.9
-
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
6.1
2.1
30.6
0.3
4.8
5.4
1.2
7.6
1.5
18.4
0.4
5.0
5.5
1.8
6.6
2.1
16.2
0.4
3.9
4.3
1.7
6.6
2.4
18.0
0.3
3.2
3.5
1.5
Performance (%)
1w
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
Rel. MSCI SMID
Rel. IT Hardware
(2)
(1)
(2)
1
0
(2)
24
(1)
9
165
121
125
Alexandre Faure
(+44) 207 039 9443
alexandre.faure@exanebnpparibas.com
Cash generation is the main positive surprise Pace targets net cash
position by December
Unsurprisingly following its positive pre-announcement on January 10, Pace this
morning released an uneventful set of results for Fiscal 12. The major surprise
was very strong cash generation with FCF reaching USD183m (Vs USD175m+
pre-announced) thanks to good working cap management and tight capex
control. However, the main unknown was still 2013 guidance: Pace expects flat
sales and c.7.5% adj. EBITA margin, both in line with consensus. Importantly,
Pace sees strong FCF generation continuing this year, leading to a net cash
position by year-end.
Europe will continue to weigh on 2013s performance
Although Pace will lose its exclusivity on high-end boxes at Comcast and
DirecTV over the course of the year, we feel confident it will maintain its lead on
the next generation of such platforms whilst expanding its high-end knowhow to
US Tier-2 CATV providers in H2, in partnership with Tivo. We thus see further
growth this year in North America set-top boxes from a high base. We also
expect LatAm to confirm the rebound shown in H2 12 while Rest of World
should recover from a low base. However, Europe will remain an area of
weakness with further decline over the next twelve months until Paces recent
wins (Get, Telenet) translate into shipments and revenues. We believe a
number of important contracts throughout Europe are up for renewal this year
(VMED, Ono, UPC) which could lead to major wins for Pace, further
strengthening revenue potential in 2014.
We tweak our estimates to reflect lower capitalised R&D and lower tax rate
We have slightly raised our top line estimates on US strength, which fully offsets
a somewhat higher OPEX base. Paces management is now very focused on
limiting the number of projects under development and making sure of their
future benefits, which prompts us to slightly reduce the net development costs
we expense through the P&L. As a reminder, we fully expense (capitalised)
development costs. Finally, we understand some tax optimisation effort is
underway, hence our lower tax rate assumption (from 30% to 26-27%). These
all bring our 2013/14 Exane BNPP-adjusted EPS up 5%/7% to 45p/52p. Our
DCF-based TP edges up 7% to 245p. Neutral.

Alexander Peterc
(+44) 207 039 9413
alexander.peterc@exanebnpparibas.com
Nav Sheera (Marketing analyst)
Jerome Ramel
INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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ROCKWOOL INTL B (+)

Building Materials - Denmark | ROCKB DC - ROCKb.CO
Target price: DKK810 | 20% Upside

Price at 04 March 2013 | DKK677.0
Postview
2012 FY postview plus 15 questions for management

Rating
Target price
Rating
Building Materials
Mkt cap (DKKbn / EURbn)
Free float (DKKbn / EURbn)
EV (DKKbn / EURbn)
Financials
EPS, Adjusted (DKK)
EPS, IBES (DKK)
Net dividend (DKK)
Sales (DKKm)
EBITA, Adj. (DKKm)
Net profit, Adj.(DKKm)
ROCE (%)
Valuation metrics*
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
EPS 13
EPS 14
(3%)
(2%)
Outperform
Outperform
14.6 / 2.0
8.6 / 1.2
14.5 / 1.9
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
38.3
35.7
10.2
43.7
41.3
13.1
49.6
46.9
14.9
57.9
59.2
17.4
14,664
1,221
828.4
8.2
0.1
15,106
1,347
945.3
8.5
0.0
15,786
1,502
1,072
8.9
0.0
16,844
1,753
1,253
10.1
-
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
12/15e
14.2
1.9
6.1
0.8
5.1
9.6
1.1
15.5
1.9
2.3
1.0
6.1
10.7
1.3
13.7
2.2
2.1
0.9
5.6
9.6
1.2
11.7
2.6
5.9
0.8
4.8
7.9
1.1
Performance (%)
1w
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
Rel. MSCI SMID
Rel. Building Mat.
(5)
(6)
(5)
3
(3)
0
11
0
4
22
12
7
Yassine Touahri
(+44) 207 039 9523
yassine.touahri@exanebnpparibas.com
Paul Roger
(+44) 203 430 8415
paul.roger@exanebnpparibas.com
2012 results in line with expectations

2012 EBIT was up 26% to DKK1,141m in line with our forecasts and
consensus. Results at the holding level were better than we expected, reflecting
a decision by Rockwool to increase the royalties charged to operating divisions.
Results in the groups Insulation and System division were consequently lower
than our expectations, however. Excluding the reallocated central charges
divisional results were in line and management flagged that underlying margins
in Insulation continued to improve sequentially in Q4, thanks to solid pricing and
lower energy costs.
Characteristically cautious guidance. The outlook for gross margins
remains encouraging
Rockwools FY13 net profit guidance of DKK700m was >20% below consensus
and our forecasts. However, we note that management has a history of very
cautious guidance. The original target net income for FY12 was >DKK600m,
whereas they delivered DKK772m, for example, and over the past three years
the beat vs original guidance has averaged c30%. Underlying trends suggest to
us that management may be too prudent once again on this year. Margins are
already back to 2008 levels and the group continues to expect energy cost
deflation in 2013, resulting in a slightly positive gross margin improvement. The
volume outlook in Europe echoes prudent comments by peers, but is not
materially different to our Central Scenario.
We maintain our Outperform rating on Rockwool
We have slightly cut our forecasts due to weak trends in the UK (lack of impact
of the green deal) and cautious comments on Asia (focus on market share
rather than margins in China ahead of the opening of a new plant). This drives
the modest reduction in our TP from from DKK815 to DKK810. We like
Rockwool's balance sheet (nearly debt free) and exposure to tightening building
energy regulation (structural growth driver). Lower coking coal prices should
continue to support solid earnings, as we note that our new 2013 EPS forecasts
are 6% above consensus. Rockwool is trading on 5.6x 2014e EV/EBITDA
versus an average of 7x over the 2005-2010 period. We reiterate Outperform.
Key risks are a reversal in coking coal prices, a resurgent Eurozone crisis, price
pressure in China or a slowdown in Russia.

Rohit Bhatia
INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
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STERIA (+)
Back to front page
Recommended Mid Cap

IT Services - France | RIA FP - TERI.PA

News
Increasing speculative appeal

Rating
Target price
Rating
IT Services
Mkt cap/Free float (EURm)
EV (EURm)
Financials
EPS, Adjusted (EUR)
EPS, IBES (EUR)
Net dividend (EUR)
Sales (EURm)
EBITA, Adj. (EURm)
ROCE (%)
Valuation metrics*
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
EPS 13e
EPS 14e
(6%)
(6%)
Outperform
Neutral
369 / 215
707
12/11
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
2.61
0.35
2.21
2.36
0.20
2.06
2.14
0.20
2.43
2.54
0.25
1,748
127.3
86.3
10.2
1.8
1,827
114.3
74.8
10.1
1.9
1,798
121.3
62.9
9.1
0.8
1,845
135.1
74.0
10.0
0.5
12/11
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
6.8
2.0
4.0
0.5
6.1
7.5
1.1
5.9
1.5
(1.7)
0.5
5.8
7.7
1.0
5.9
1.7
7.1
0.4
4.6
5.8
0.8
5.0
2.1
11.6
0.4
4.0
5.0
0.7
Performance (%)
Absolute
Rel. MSCI SMID
Rel. IT Services
1w
1m
3m
12m
(10)
(14)
(13)
(10)
(14)
(13)
(5)
(10)
(13)
(23)
(38)
(34)
Brice Prunas
(+44) 207 039 9539
brice.prunas@exanebnpparibas.com
Josep Bori
A disconnect between Industrial value and stock market value

Comparing Steria with peers (Tieto, Sopra), one might be surprised by the
disconnect between the value of Sterias offerings (like Public Sector and
Security) and its industrial positioning on the one side and its current stock
market value on the other. We believe that this disconnect may well give rise to
a more speculative scenario in an 18-month timeframe, revealing that Steria
may well hold more value for an industrial trade buyer than for a stock market
investor.
Becoming more speculative Offer from a trade buyer not ruled out in the
medium term
Following the H1 2012 profit warning and challenged FY 12 earnings release,
Sterias share price has fallen back to its low-end valuation (P/E 13e below 6).
For a trade buyer, Steria offers an interesting value proposal at an unmatched
low price. Several trade buyers could contemplate buying Steria: 1) Capgemini
for example in Europe; 2) in Asia, Indian pure play vendors (Infosys, TCS,
Cognizant, etc.) have recently shown a growing interest in Europe as has
Japanese company NTT Data. Nor should an offer from a private equity or
turnaround fund be totally ruled out. Steria shareholders (even the 19%
belonging to employees) will be obliged to consider any offer seriously given
possible reservations about the organic route chosen by Steria in such a
challenging context.
2013-2015 FCF will be key to give a chance to the stand alone scenario
After generating around EUR250m cumulated FCF between 2008 and 2010,
Sterias FCF suddenly deteriorated in 2011 (+EUR20m) and 2012 (-EUR6m),
dented by investments in large contracts (like Cleveland Police), real estate
optimisation and restructuring (in Continental Europe where Steria lost focus
after Xansa). Sterias best protection against an offer from a trade buyer would
be to resume FCF generation. Steria targets EUR20m post dividend in 2013
and EUR40m post dividend starting 2014. However, we have doubts about
whether or not this FCF improvement is going to be enough to deleverage
Steria and therefore preserve its independence, showing that the standalone
strategy may well no longer be the central scenario.

INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
PDF
TF1 (+)
Back to front page
Recommended Mid Cap

Media - France | TFI FP - TFFP.PA

Update
Tough ad trends but appeal remains

Rating
Target price
EPS 13e
EPS 14e
6%
4%
9%
Rating
Media
EV (EURbn)
Financials
EPS, Adjusted (EUR)
EPS, IBES (EUR)
Net dividend (EUR)
Sales (EURm)
EBITA, Adj. (EURm)
ROCE (%)
Valuation metrics*
P/E (x)
Net yield (%)
FCF yield (%)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBITA (x)
EV/CE (x)
Outperform
Outperform
1.8 / 0.9
1.6
12/11
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
0.93
0.55
0.71
0.64
0.55
0.74
0.68
0.50
0.74
0.65
0.50
2,620
283.0
198.8
11.6
0.1
2,621
230.8
149.7
9.7
-
2,541
247.5
157.5
10.3
-
2,663
245.2
156.8
10.5
-
12/11
12/12
12/13e
12/14e
12.3
4.8
2.9
0.9
6.7
8.6
1.5
10.6
7.3
14.8
0.5
4.0
5.7
0.9
11.3
5.9
9.1
0.6
5.1
6.6
1.1
11.4
5.9
11.2
0.6
4.8
6.2
1.0
Performance (%)
Absolute
Rel. MSCI SMID
Rel. Media
1w
1m
3m
12m
0
(3)
(3)
(4)
(8)
(8)
6
(1)
(3)
(1)
(20)
(15)
Charles Bedouelle
(+44) 207 039 9482
charles.bedouelle@exanebnpparibas.com
Adrien de Saint Hilaire
(+44) 207 039 9499
adrien.de_saint_hilaire@exanebnpparibas.com
We present the feedback from our roadshow with TF1s CFO last week, and
reiterate our positive stance on the shares despite the tougher ad trends.
Ad trends are worse than expected, but audiences are solid
TF1 confirmed Q1 for the core channel could be down more than the 10% seen
in Q3 12 (no number given). We thus cut Q1 to -14%, below our initial -89% as
current market weakness is exacerbated by some competitors slashing prices.
But January-February are small months, and we have no visibility for March and
comps improve Q2. We expect -8% for FY, (implying -6.5% for Q2Q4) without
pricing in the current solid audiences.
No upgrade to guidance, but cost cutting is a clear focus
Some were disappointed that the cost-cutting guidance was not raised at the FY
results, but this seemed too optimistic as the plan was only announced late in
2012. We note that TF1 is trying its best to accelerate cost cutting (more in
2013 than initially planned). Importantly, TF1s CFO highlighted that, beyond the
structural cost improvement plan, the group was also taking more classic cost
reduction measures in light of the worse-than-expected revenues (no number
given).
Looking beyond the core channel
The CFO stressed that TF1 is focusing on developing new areas (digital,
Eurosport, new channels) and leveraging the core channels content and brand
in other business lines, which are now all profitable and growing. This limits
cash return potential in 2013, but we are hopeful for 2014.
Reiterate Outperform, with updated EUR12.2 TP showing c.45% upside
Our raised EPS forecasts (+4% for 2013e, +9% for 2014e), despite the lower ad
forecasts, reflect better cost management (including in 2012). This puts us well
above the consensus, which we think is overlooking 1) the benefit of regulation,
2) one-offs in the 2012 cost base and 3) the cost-cutting potential. Plus, TF1s
valuation is clearly low excluding Eurosport/Diversifications at 0.2x 13e sales, a
fraction of peers multiples.

Sami Kassab
William Packer
INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
PDF
Back to front page
SEMICONDUCTOR
Priced at 05 March 2013
News
A relatively strong start to the year

Jerome Ramel
(+44) 207 039 9484
jerome.ramel@exanebnpparibas.com
Nav Sheera (Marketing analyst)
Alexander Peterc
Alexandre Faure
January sales were stronger than we forecasted

Worldwide semiconductor sales in January were USD22.83bn (EBNNP
USD21.89bn), down 10% m/m (the third softest m/m decline in the last 15
years) and up 6.2% y/y. Three-month average sales were USD24.05bn, down
2.8% m/m and up 3.8% y/y.
Volumes continue to grow y/y
Volumes (three month average) were down 0.6% m/m and up 9.7% y/y, vs
+8.7% in December, giving further evidence of a gradual recovery in unit
numbers.
ASP still under pressure ex memory
ASP were USD0.438, down 2.3% m/m and down 5.3% y/y. Excluding
memories, ASP were down 7.9% y/y vs 5.5% in December, reflecting the price
renegotiation that usually takes place in January and also a relatively low
capacity utilization rate (probably around 80% for the industry).
Too early to call a trend but we see some upside on our 2013 scenario
With the relatively strong start to the year, we see some upside to our scenario
of 34% semiconductor sales growth worldwide in 2013. We stick to our
scenario that Q1 13 will be the trough and will be followed by a gradual recovery
during the rest of the year. We actually see growth until the end of 2014 (except
for the usual seasonal boost in Q1 14).
Qualcomm, ARM, STM and Infineon are our favourites in Semis, KLA and
ASMi in Equipment
We continue to see favourable momentum in Wireless and still favour
Qualcomm and ARM. We play STM for the STE exit and for a potential rerating.
Infineon should benefit from a recovery at the Industrial division later this year
and we stick to our view that the consensus underestimates the margin
leverage. KLA and ASMi remain our preferred Equipment names.

INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
Back to front page
AGENDA
(2/2)
Company
Price*
TP Upside
Type
Analyst / Phone
Wednesday 06 March 2013

TBC
Admiral Group (-)
GBP1,267 GBP891 (29.7%)
Conf. Call
FYPreliminary Results
A.Hughes (+44) 207 039 9460
Agfa-Gevaert
EUR1.50
Amplifon (+)
EUR4.23
EUR4.70 11.2%
FY 2012 Results
R.Zana (+33) 1 44 95 58 79
Bourbon (-)
EUR20.8
EUR20 (3.9%)
FYResults
A.Marie (+44) 207 039 9427
Preview
CTC Media
USD10.0
Preview
FYResults
FYResults
First Quantum Minerals GBP11.9

Ltd (=)
GBP14.5 22.1%
Q4 & FY 2012 Results
J.Devevey (+33) 1 42 99 50 51
GEOX (-)
EUR2.46
EUR1.70 (30.9%)
FYResults
Conf. Call
G.Marsella (+39) 02 89 63 17 20
Henkel Pref (-)
EUR68.7
EUR58 (15.5%)
FYResults
E.Ferry (+44) 207 039 9404
Preview
Inmarsat (=)
GBP660.0 GBP675 2.3%
FYResults
M.Robilliard (+44) 203 430 8524
Preview
Inside Secure (+)
EUR3.03
EUR4.80 58.4%
FYResults
J.Ramel (+44) 207 039 9484
Kloeckner & Co (+)
EUR11.4
EUR11 (3.7%)
FYResults
Conf. Call
R.Kruger (+44) 203 430 8408
Legal & General (-)
GBP162.7 GBP116 (28.7%)
A.Hughes (+44) 207 039 9460
Manitou (=)
EUR13.7
FYResults
L.Gelebart (+33) 1 44 95 21 56
Millicom (=)
SEK488.2 SEK570 16.8%
AGM
Investor Day
M.Rey (+33) 1 44 95 69 36
Nordea (-)
SEK76.4
Investor Day
A.Hakansson (+46) 856 29 3510
Ophir Energy (=)
GBP513.0 GBP650 26.7%
A.Topouzoglou (+44) 207 039 9532
Panalpina
CHF98.4
FYResults
EUR16 16.8%
SEK68 (10.9%)
SCOR (+)
EUR22.2
Safilo
EUR8.6
Swatch Group B (+)
CHF544.5 CHF706 29.7%
FYResults
L.Solca (+44) 203 430 8503
Verbund (+)
EUR16.4
FYResults
P.Gottschalk (+33) 1 42 99 52 04
BHP Billiton (=)
GBP2,108 GBP2,000 (5.1%)
Ex date (0.57USD)
S.Brunet (+44) 203 430 8508
Bank of Greece
EUR14.9
CRH Plc (=)
EUR17.5
Novozymes
DKK200.3
EUR24 8%
FYResults
T.Jacquet (+33) 1 42 99 51 96
FYResults
EUR22 34.4%
Preview
Ex date (0.4032EUR)
EUR18 2.9%
Ex date (0.352EUR)
P.Roger (+44) 203 430 8415
Dividend payment (1.606DKK)
Shire Plc (+)
GBP2,090 GBP2,400 14.8%
Ex date (0.0939GBP)
Stagecoach
EUR3.39
Dividend payment (0.026GBP)
N.Guyon-Gellin (+33) 1 44 95 68 61
TUI Travel (-)
GBP314.8 GBP280 (11.1%)
Ex date (0.083GBP)
P.Causse (+33) 1 42 99 84 30
FYResults
R.Ciaccia (+44) 207 039 95 22
Thursday 07 March 2013

Autogrill (=)
EUR9.8
Aviva (+)
GBP356.7 GBP414 16.1%
EUR8.2 (16.3%)
A.Hughes (+44) 207 039 9460
Betfair (+)
GBP6.9
GBP8.7 26.1%
Interim Management Statement
R.Ciaccia (+44) 207 039 95 22
Campari Group (=)
EUR6.0
EUR5.8 (4%)
FYResults
F.Mosnier (+44) 207 039 9407
Carrefour (+)
EUR21.2
EUR22 3.6%
FY 2012 Results
J.Kershaw +44 203 430 8422
Cementir
EUR2.00
Club Md. (=)
EUR14.0
AGM
M.Desmarais (+33) 1 44 95 58 60
Cobham (=)
GBP233.6 GBP205 (12.2%)
T.Sanson (+33) 1 42 99 24 04
Continental (+)
EUR92.2
EUR105 13.9%
FYResults
R.Freiha (+33) 1 42 99 84 62
Delhaize (=)
EUR37.0
EUR35 (5.4%)
FY 2012 Results
A.Gwynn +44 203 430 8438
ERG (-)
EUR7.1
EUR5.9 (16.5%)
FYResults
A.Topouzoglou (+44) 207 039 9532
Hannover Re (+)
EUR60.9
EUR63.5 4.2%
FYResults
N.Dalla Palma (+33) 1 44 95 92 67
Haulotte Group (+)
EUR7.1
EUR8 12.8%
FYResults
L.Gelebart (+33) 1 44 95 21 56
Preview
Preview
FYResults
EUR14 0%
IMI (+)
GBP1,240 GBP1,325 6.9%
J.Mounsey (+44) 207 039 9529
JCDecaux (-)
EUR21.0
EUR17 (19%)
FYResults
C.Bedouelle (+44) 207 039 9482
Lagardre (=)
EUR27.6
EUR29 4.9%
FYResults
C.Bedouelle (+44) 207 039 9482
Linde (=)
EUR140.3 EUR137 (2.4%)
FYResults
H.Vesterinen (+44) 203 430 8439
Merck KGaA (=)
EUR110.0 EUR108 (1.8%)
Q4Results
V.Meunier (+33) 1 42 99 24 42
Preview
Preview
Preview
INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
Back to front page
Time CET
Company
Price*
TP Upside
Type
Analyst / Phone
Thursday 07 March 2013 (continued)

OPAP (=)
EUR6.9
Recordati
EUR7.6
SBM Offshore
EUR10.8
FYResults
Schroders (=)
GBP2,032 GBP1,830 (9.9%)
FYResults
A.Parthasarathy (+44) 207 039 9476
Stallergnes (=)
EUR50.7
FYResults
N.Guyon-Gellin (+33) 1 44 95 68 61
Standard Life (+)
GBP374.3 GBP395 5.5%
A.Hughes (+44) 207 039 9460
TDC (+)
DKK45.6
DKK47 3.1%
AGM
A.Pradayrol (+44) 207 039 9489
Telecom Italia (+)
EUR0.57
EUR0.80 40.6%
FYResults
M.Robilliard (+44) 203 430 8524
Vicat (-)
EUR45.1
EUR40.5 (10.2%)
FYResults
Y.Touahri (+44) 207 039 9523
Wartsila (+)
EUR35.8
EUR38 6.1%
AGM
A.Denaud (+44) 207 039 9488
adidas (+)
EUR71.6
EUR83 15.9%
FYResults
A.Inderst (+44) 207 039 9453
Kone (=)
EUR63.0
EUR60 (4.8%)
Dividend payment (1.225EUR)
A.Denaud (+44) 207 039 9488
RTL Group OLD
EUR60.9
Roche (=)
CHF218.3 CHF213 (2.4%)
Ex date (4.7775CHF)
V.Meunier (+33) 1 42 99 24 42
USD38.1
Ex & Div. Payment (0.31USD)
F.Cespedes (+33) 1 42 99 84 93
Teva (+)
*Priced at 05 March 2013
EUR6 (13%)
FYResults
R.Ciaccia (+44) 207 039 95 22
FYResults
EUR51 0.6%
Ex & Div. Payment (4.59EUR)

USD46 20.6%
Preview
INVESTMENT DAILY
06 MARCH 2013
Back to front page
Analyst location
As per contact details, analysts are based in the following locations: London, UK for telephone numbers commencing +44; Paris, France +33; Brussels, Belgium +32;
Frankfurt, Germany +49; Geneva, Switzerland +41; Madrid, Spain +34; Milan, Italy +39; New York, USA +1; Singapore +65; Stockholm, Sweden +46
Rating definitions
Stock Rating (vs Sector)
Outperform: The stock is expected to outperform the industry large-cap coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.
Neutral: The stock is expected to perform in line with the industry large-cap coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.
Underperform: The stock is expected to underperform the industry large-cap coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.
Under review: The rating of the stock has been placed under review for following important news. Any possible change will be confirmed as soon as possible.
Sector Rating (vs Market)
Outperform: The sector is expected to outperform the DJ STOXX50 over a 12-month investment horizon.
Neutral: The sector is expected to perform in line with the DJ STOXX50 over a 12-month investment horizon.
Underperform: The sector is expected to underperform the DJ STOXX50 over a 12-month investment horizon.
Key ideas
BUY: The stock is expected to deliver an absolute return in excess of 30% over the next two years. Exane BNP Paribas Key Ideas Buy List comprises selected stocks that meet
this criterion.
Distribution of Exane BNP Paribas equity recommendations

As at 02/01/2013 Exane BNP Paribas covered 615 stocks. The stocks that, for regulatory reasons, are not accorded a rating by Exane BNP Paribas are excluded from these
statistics. For regulatory reasons, our ratings of Outperform, Neutral and Underperform correspond respectively to Buy, Hold and Sell; the underlying signification is,
however, different as our ratings are relative to the sector.
42% of stocks covered by Exane BNP Paribas were rated Outperform. During the last 12 months, Exane acted as distributor for BNP Paribas on the 3% of stocks with this
rating for which BNP Paribas acted as manager or co-manager on a public offering. BNP Paribas provided investment banking services to 7% of the companies accorded
this rating*.
37% of stocks covered by Exane BNP Paribas were rated Neutral. During the last 12 months, Exane acted as distributor for BNP Paribas on the 0% of stocks with this rating
for which BNP Paribas acted as manager or co-manager on a public offering. BNP Paribas provided investment banking services to 4% of the companies accorded this
rating*.
21% of stocks covered by Exane BNP Paribas were rated Underperform. During the last 12 months, Exane acted as distributor for BNP Paribas on the 0% of stocks with this
rating for which BNP Paribas acted as manager or co-manager on a public offering. BNP Paribas provided investment banking services to 5% of the companies accorded
this rating*.
* Exane is independent from BNP Paribas. Nevertheless, in order to maintain absolute transparency, we include in this category transactions carried out by BNP Paribas
independently from Exane. For the purpose of clarity, we have excluded fixed income transactions carried out by BNP Paribas.
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Complete disclosures, please see www.exane.com/compliance
Exane
Pursuant to Directive 2003/125/CE and NASD Rule 2711(h)
Unless specified, Exane is unaware of significant conflicts of interest with companies mentioned in this report.
Source: Exane
See www.exane.com/disclosureequitiesuk for details
BNP Paribas
Exane is independent of BNP Paribas (BNPP) and the agreement between the two companies is structured to guarantee the independence of Exane's research, published
under the brand name Exane BNP Paribas. Nevertheless, to respect a principle of transparency, we separately identify potential conflicts of interest with BNPP regarding
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Potential conflicts of interest: None.
Source: BNP Paribas
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INVESTMENT DAILY

PICK OF THE DAY

SMALL & MID CAPS

ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS (=) f (-)

Admiral Group / First Quantum Minerals Ltd

BHP Billiton / CRH Plc / Shire Plc / TUI

Danske Bank / Edenred / Sacyr / Vodafone

SMALL & MID CAPS

ECONOMY / STRATEGY / SECTOR / QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH

Please refer to important disclosures

For the exclusive use of Jerome FOURTANIER at KARAKORAM GESTION (06-Mar-2013)

Back to front page

ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS (=) f (-)

Target price: 1,870p | 0% Upside

European Sugar: a turn for the worse

And all looks good in EU Sugar?

* Yearly average price for FY ended 09/12

A phenomenal share price performer

The EU Sugar market is turning

Download document (37 pages)

For the exclusive use of Jerome FOURTANIER at KARAKORAM GESTION (06-Mar-2013)

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Target price: EUR70 | 4% Upside

Q412 results and 15 Questions for Management

EPS, Adjusted (EUR)

* Yearly average price for FY ended 12/12

Download document (11 pages)

For the exclusive use of Jerome FOURTANIER at KARAKORAM GESTION (06-Mar-2013)

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Target price: 230p | 13% Downside

Unrealistic to emerge unscathed from a perfect storm

* Yearly average prices for FY to end-01/12, 01/13

Download document (10 pages)

For the exclusive use of Jerome FOURTANIER at KARAKORAM GESTION (06-Mar-2013)

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Target price: SEK104 | 10% Upside

Ambitious but believable guidance - Fundamentals still valid

* Yearly average price for FY ended 04/12

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For the exclusive use of Jerome FOURTANIER at KARAKORAM GESTION (06-Mar-2013)

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WOOD GROUP (+)

Target price: 1,080p | 42% Upside

Good results and solid 2013 guidance

FY12 EBITA in line with consensus

* Yearly average price for FY ended 12/12

2013 EBITA to grow 15%, underpinned by solid outlook in all divisions

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Andrew Crispin (Marketing analyst)

For the exclusive use of Jerome FOURTANIER at KARAKORAM GESTION (06-Mar-2013)

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ANSALDO STS (+)

Target price: EUR9 | 26% Upside

2013 guidance below our estimate, but no big concerns

2013 guidance below our estimates

* Yearly average price for FY ended 12/12

Outperform reiterated with TP of EUR9.0

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For the exclusive use of Jerome FOURTANIER at KARAKORAM GESTION (06-Mar-2013)

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BANCO POPOLARE (+)

Target price: EUR1.90 | 55% Upside

Investment case driven by (adequate) solvency