TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS MODELING AND EVALUATION

3.2

CHAPTER THREE

way projects for funding. Then the economic impact of the decision is important and detail
signal settings are not considered; instead, the overall effect of the typical control is represented in the analysis. These two cases require two distinct models that differ in scope and
detail. A specific job requires a specific model. Understanding the basics of modeling in
transportation engineering is helpful in selecting an adequate model, using it properly, and
interpreting the results correctly.
This chapter aims to help decide whether a model is needed, select an adequate model,
and use it effectively. The reader will find neither endorsements nor a complete overview of
the existing modeling software packages, and specific references are mentioned for illustration of the points raised in the presentation without any intention either to compliment or
criticize.
Although this chapter has been written with all the areas of transportation engineering in
mind, examples are taken from surface transportation, which is the authors area of expertise.
The author believes that this focus does not constrain the generality of the chapter.

3.2

TYPES OF TRANSPORTATION MODELS AND MODELING

PARADIGMS
Classification of transportation models is challenging because there are a wide variety of
transportation models and a considerable number of ways the models can be categorized.
We will try to classify the models in a way that helps transportation engineers select models
adequate to the job.
Transportation models are applied to individual highway facilities, groups of facilities,
and entire transportation systems at the city, state, and national levels. Transportation models
are also applied to time horizons, ranging from the present up to 20 and more years ahead.
Depending on the use and scope, transportation models can focus on long-term prediction
of demand for various transportation modes with adequately incorporated economic impacts;
focus on routing and scheduling using choice models with properly represented connectivity
between various network components; or focus on a faithful representation of traffic flows
at various transportation facilities. From this perspective, transportation models can be divided into the following categories:
1.
2.
3.
4.

Demand models (econometric models, short-term traffic prediction, traffic generation, etc.)
Network models (modal split, traffic assignment, scheduling)
Traffic models (advanced traffic and control representation, interaction between vehicles)
Performance models (traffic quality perception, safety performance models, fuel consumption, air-pollution generation, noise generation, signal optimization, etc.)

3.2.1 Demand Models

Because the majority of trips are work or business-related, transportation demand depends
strongly on the regional economy. On the other hand, economic growth in the area can be
stimulated by the business-generating ability of transportation infrastructure or hindered by
excessive transportation costs. Econometric models attempt to grasp these complex impacts
through simultaneous statistical equations that represent the relationships among transportation, regional economy, land use, regional policies (laws, zoning, pricing, subsidies, etc.),
and people travel preferences (example can be found in Johnson et al. 2001). These relationships are developed from the historical data for the region and then applied to predict
future transportation demands. These models are typically highly aggregated and give total
annual or daily numbers of trips between zones by various transportation modes. Although

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