XLMiner may be used for forecasting these variables

As there is a lot of data to forecast, instructors may wish to restrict the assignment to only a portion of the data, or assign differe
Also, there is not a unique answer to many of these forecasts; students should provide logic and justification for their choices.
First thing to do is to chart the data
Mower Sales:

NA

SA

12000

500

10000

400

8000

300

6000

NA

4000

200
100

2000
0

0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

Europe

Pacific

2000

300
250

1500

200

1000

Europe

500

150
100
50
0

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57

1 5 9 131721252933374145495357

World
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

World

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57

An important focus on this case is for students to select the proper forecasting procedure.
For NA and World Mower Sales, we see a seasonal pattern with no trend, so use Holt-Winter no trend option.
For SA and Europe, we have a stable seasonal pattern with trend, so use Holt-Winters additive model.
For Pacific, we might use a double exponential smoothing model or perhaps regression.
Note that XLMiner does not optimize Holt-Winter models, so students need to experiment to find the best models, so it would be

A sample result for NA mower sales is given in the worksheet Mower Fcst NA
Because XLMiner does optimize double exponential smoothing, the result is given in the worksheet Mower Fcst Pacific
There is not enough data for China to make an effective forecast.
Tractor Sales:

NA

SA

3000

1500

2000

1000
NA

1000
0

500
0

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57

Eur

Pac

1000
800
600
Eur

400
200
0

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57

China

World

150

5000
4000

100

3000
China

50

2000
1000

0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57

1 5 9 131721252933374145495357

For NA and World tractor sales, we see seasonal data with increasing amplitude, suggesting that Holt-Winters multiplicative mo
SA: use double exponential smoothing or regression.
The data for Europe and Pacific are somewhat irregular; students might experiment with different types of smoothing models.
A smoothing model would also be appropriate for China.
Industry Mower Sales:
140000

140000

2500

120000
2000
100000
80000

NA

1500

Eur

60000

World

1000

40000
500
20000
0

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58

1 4 7 10 13 16

Similar logic can be applied. All except Pacific region would use Holt Winter no trend model, and Pacific would probably use do
Industry Tractor Sales:
30000

4000
3500

25000

3000
20000

2500
NA

15000

Eur
World

10000

2000
1500
1000

5000

500

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58

1 4 7 10 13 16 19

NA: Holt Winter multiplicative

World: Holt Winter multiplicative
Europe: exponential smoothing or moving average
SA, Pacific, and China: smoothing model

Unit production costs follow a close linear trend except for an apparent anomoly in in 2011.
It will be interesting to see how students handle it. They might question the integrity of the data.
For example, we see that a linear trendline will underestimate the data for tractors.
For mowers, there appears to be a decreasing return, so a polynomial trendline might be adequate as would a double exponent

Tractor
$2,200

y = 6.1658x + 1750
R = 0.9626

R = 0.9626

$2,200
$2,100
$2,000
$1,900

Tractor

$1,800

Linear (Tractor)

$1,700
$1,600
$1,500
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335373941434547495153555759

Mower

y = -0.0025x2 + 0.3867x + 49.283

R = 0.9508

$70
$65
$60
Mower

$55

Poly. (Mower)
$50
$45
$40
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59

he data, or assign different time series to different students or groups.

cation for their choices.

SA

49 53 57

Pacific

53 57

est models, so it would be difficult to expect the "best" model.

wer Fcst Pacific

SA

57

Pac

57

World

Winters multiplicative models are appropriate.

s of smoothing models.

SA
Pac

13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58

ic would probably use double exponential smoothing.

SA
Pac
China

16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58

would a double exponential smoothing model.

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
1 Mower Unit Sales
2
3 Month
NA
SA Europe Pacific China World
4
Jan-08 6000 200
720
100
0 7020
5
Feb-08 7950 220
990
120
0 9280
6
Mar-08 8100 250
1320
110
0 9780
7
Apr-08 9050 280
1650
120
0 11100
8
May-08 9900 310
1590
130
0 11930
9
Jun-08 10200 300
1620
120
0 12240
10
Jul-08 8730 280
1590
140
0 10740
11
Aug-08 8140 250
1560
130
0 10080
12
Sep-08 6480 230
1590
130
0 8430
13
Oct-08 5990 220
1320
120
0 7650
14
Nov-08 5320 210
990
130
0 6650
15
Dec-08 4640 180
660
140
0 5620
16
Jan-09 5980 210
690
140
0 7020
17
Feb-09 7620 240
1020
150
0 9030
18
Mar-09 8370 250
1290
140
0 10050
19
Apr-09 8830 290
1620
150
0 10890
20
May-09 9310 330
1650
130
0 11420
21
Jun-09 10230 310
1590
140
0 12270
22
Jul-09 8720 290
1560
150
0 10720
23
Aug-09 7710 270
1530
140
0 9650
24
Sep-09 6320 250
1590
150
0 8310
25
Oct-09 5840 250
1260
160
0 7510
26
Nov-09 4960 240
900
150
0 6250
27
Dec-09 4350 210
660
150
0 5370
28
Jan-10 6020 220
570
160
0 6970
29
Feb-10 7920 250
840
150
0 9160
30
Mar-10 8430 270
1110
160
0 9970
31
Apr-10 9040 310
1500
170
0 11020
32
May-10 9820 360
1440
160
0 11780
33
Jun-10 10370 330
1410
170
0 12280
34
Jul-10 9050 310
1440
160
0 10960
35
Aug-10 7620 300
1410
170
0 9500
36
Sep-10 6420 280
1350
180
0 8230
37
Oct-10 5890 270
1080
180
0 7420
38
Nov-10 5340 260
840
190
0 6630
39
Dec-10 4430 230
510
180
0 5350
40
Jan-11 6100 250
480
200
0 7030
41
Feb-11 8010 270
750
190
0 9220
42
Mar-11 8430 280
1140
200
0 10050
43
Apr-11 9110 320
1410
210
0 11050
44
May-11 9730 380
1340
190
0 11640
45
Jun-11 10120 360
1360
200
0 12040
46
Jul-11 9080 320
1410
200
0 11010
47
Aug-11 7820 310
1490
210
0 9830
48
Sep-11 6540 300
1310
220
0 8370
49
Oct-11 6010 290
980
210
0 7490
50
Nov-11 5270 270
770
220
0 6530
51
Dec-11 5380 260
430
230
0 6300
52
Jan-12 6210 270
400
200
0 7080
53
Feb-12 8030 280
750
190
0 9250
54
Mar-12 8540 300
970
210
0 10020
55
Apr-12 9120 340
1310
220
5 10995
56
May-12 9570 390
1260
200
16 11436
57
Jun-12 10230 380
1240
210
22 12082
58
Jul-12 9580 350
1300
230
26 11486
59
Aug-12 7680 340
1250
220
14 9504
60
Sep-12 6870 320
1210
220
15 8635
61
Oct-12 5930 310
970
230
11 7451
62
Nov-12 5260 300
650
240
3 6453
63
Dec-12 4830 290
300
230
1 5651

Tractor Unit Sales

Month
NA
SA
Eur
Jan-08
570
250
Feb-08
611
270
Mar-08
630
260
Apr-08
684
270
May-08
650
280
Jun-08
600
270
Jul-08
512
264
Aug-08
500
280
Sep-08
478
290
Oct-08
455
280
Nov-08
407
290
Dec-08
360
280
Jan-09
571
320
Feb-09
650
350
Mar-09
740
390
Apr-09
840
440
May-09
830
470
Jun-09
760
490
Jul-09
681
481
Aug-09
670
460
Sep-09
640
460
Oct-09
620
440
Nov-09
570
436
Dec-09
533
420
Jan-10
620
510
Feb-10
792
590
Mar-10
890
610
Apr-10
960
600
May-10
1040
620
Jun-10
1032
640
Jul-10
1006
590
Aug-10
910
600
Sep-10
803
670
Oct-10
730
630
Nov-10
699
710
Dec-10
647
570
Jan-11
730
650
Feb-11
930
680
Mar-11
1160
724
Apr-11
1510
730
May-11
1650
760
Jun-11
1490
800
Jul-11
1460
840
Aug-11
1390
830
Sep-11
1360
820
Oct-11
1340
810
Nov-11
1240
827
Dec-11
1103
750
Jan-12
1250
780
Feb-12
1550
805
Mar-12
1820
830
Apr-12
2010
890
May-12
2230
930
Jun-12
2490
980
Jul-12
2440
1002
Aug-12
2334
970
Sep-12
2190
960
Oct-12
2080
930
Nov-12
2050
920
Dec-12
2004
902

Pac
560
600
680
650
580
590
760
645
650
670
888
850
620
760
742
780
690
721
680
711
695
650
680
657
610
680
730
820
810
807
760
720
660
630
603
570
500
590
620
730
740
720
670
610
599
560
550
520
480
523
560
570
590
600
580
570
550
530
517
490

China
212
230
240
263
269
280
290
270
263
258
240
230
250
275
270
280
290
300
312
305
290
260
250
240
250
250
260
270
290
310
340
320
313
290
280
260
287
290
300
310
330
340
350
341
330
320
300
290
200
210
220
230
253
270
280
250
230
220
190
190

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
12
20
22
20
24
20
31
30
37
32
33
35
50
63
68
70
82
80
90
100
102
110
114
111
121
123
120
130
136
134
132
137
130
139
131

World
1592
1711
1810
1867
1779
1740
1826
1695
1681
1663
1825
1720
1761
2035
2142
2340
2280
2271
2154
2146
2085
1970
1936
1850
2000
2324
2510
2672
2780
2813
2716
2581
2476
2317
2324
2080
2202
2540
2867
3348
3550
3432
3400
3261
3209
3132
3027
2777
2821
3209
3553
3820
4133
4476
4436
4256
4067
3890
3816
3717

Industry Mower Total Sales

Month

NA
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12

60000
77184
77885
86190
96117
97143
84757
79804
64800
59307
52157
45049
58627
76200
82871
84904
93100
93000
83048
74854
60769
55619
48155
42647
57885
77647
81845
86095
91776
100680
86190
71887
60000
55566
50857
42596
58095
75566
80286
85140
90093
95472
87308
74476
61698
57238
50673
51238
59712
77961
83725
90297
91143
99320
93922
73143
66699
56476
51068
46893

SA
Eur
Pac
World
571
13091
1045
74662
611
17679
1111
96585
658
22759
1068
102369
778
27966
1237
116171
886
27895
1313
126210
882
30566
1176
129768
848
29444
1359
116409
735
28364
1238
110141
657
28393
1215
95065
595
24444
1154
85500
553
18000
1262
71972
462
12453
1386
59349
553
12778
1443
73401
615
18214
1515
96545
658
23889
1373
108791
784
29455
1442
116584
846
29464
1215
124625
838
27414
1333
122585
763
27368
1415
112594
694
27321
1296
104164
625
29444
1402
92241
610
23774
1468
81470
571
17308
1351
67386
512
12941
1389
57489
537
10962
1509
70892
595
15273
1402
94917
659
20556
1524
104583
756
26786
1574
115211
878
24828
1468
118949
825
24737
1560
127801
756
24828
1441
113216
714
25179
1545
99325
651
24545
1667
86863
643
19286
1698
77193
619
15273
1810
68558
548
9107
1731
53982
581
8571
1887
69135
614
13158
1845
91182
622
19655
1923
102486
727
25179
1981
113027
826
23103
1810
115832
783
24286
1942
122482
681
24737
1961
114686
646
26607
2000
103729
625
22982
2075
87381
617
16897
2019
76771
587
13750
2095
67105
591
7818
2150
61797
563
7547
1852
69673
571
13889
1743
94165
625
18302
1892
104544
723
25192
2037
118250
848
24706
1887
118583
792
25306
1944
127363
745
27083
2170
123919
739
26042
2037
101961
667
26304
2018
95688
660
22558
2072
81766
625
14773
2182
68648
608
6977
2035
56510

Industry Tractor Total Sales

Month
NA
SA
Eur
Pac
China
World
Jan-08
8143
984
5091
987
278
15483
Feb-08
8592
1051
5310
1090
283
16325
Mar-08
8630
1016
6071
1127
285
17129
Apr-08
8947
1027
5856
1209
288
17327
May-08
8442
1057
5273
1221
286
16278
Jun-08
7500
1019
5315
1327
287
15448
Jul-08
6145
977
7170
1324
289
15905
Aug-08
5882
1057
5926
1268
290
14422
Sep-08
5595
1086
6075
1209
293
14258
Oct-08
5233
1045
6321
1168
295
14061
Nov-08
4494
1078
8381
1127
298
15378
Dec-08
3913
1029
7944
1085
301
14272
Jan-09
5938
1172
5688
1185
306
14289
Feb-09
6633
1273
7037
1286
302
16530
Mar-09
7327
1423
6981
1286
303
17320
Apr-09
8077
1612
7500
1346
307
18842
May-09
7830
1728
6571
1388
309
17826
Jun-09
7103
1815
6990
1449
312
17669
Jul-09
6239
1776
6667
1490
315
16487
Aug-09
6036
1685
6762
1449
318
16250
Sep-09
5664
1679
6635
1394
321
15692
Oct-09
5345
1618
6311
1256
315
14844
Nov-09
4831
1564
6476
1214
318
14402
Dec-09
4454
1522
6250
1171
320
13716
Jan-10
5299
1835
5922
1208
333
14597
Feb-10
6529
2115
6667
1214
313
16836
Mar-10
7120
2202
7228
1256
606
18412
Apr-10
7619
2151
8200
1311
571
19852
May-10
8387
2214
7941
1415
556
20513
Jun-10
8110
2278
7921
1520
526
20355
Jul-10
7752
2100
7677
1675
513
19716
Aug-10
6894
2128
7200
1584
769
18575
Sep-10
6015
2367
6735
1527
750
17394
Oct-10
5368
2211
6495
1422
732
16226
Nov-10
4964
2483
6061
1366
714
15587
Dec-10
4444
1986
5816
1262
698
14207
Jan-11
5000
2257
5051
1373
714
14394
Feb-11
6284
2353
6082
1436
1063
17218
Mar-11
7785
2457
6327
1478
1264
19310
Apr-11
9934
2517
7604
1512
1333
22901
May-11
10645
2612
7789
1642
1556
24244
Jun-11
9491
2749
7347
1667
1739
22993
Jul-11
9182
2887
6979
1733
1702
22483
Aug-11
8528
2833
6489
1700
1915
21465
Sep-11
8293
2789
6316
1642
2083
21123
Oct-11
8221
2765
5833
1576
2128
20523
Nov-11
7470
2746
5789
1493
2292
19789
Dec-11
6509
2534
5591
1450
2245
18329
Jan-12
7267
2635
5106
1010
2292
18311
Feb-12
8807
2703
5474
1045
2449
20477
Mar-12
10168
2795
6022
1106
2400
22489
Apr-12
11044
2997
6064
1150
2353
23607
May-12
12120
3131
6344
1244
2600
25439
Jun-12
13459
3311
6593
1357
2653
27374
Jul-12
13048
3390
6304
1421
2600
26764
Aug-12
12275
3277
6064
1263
2549
25428
Sep-12
11347
3232
5789
1173
2453
23995
Oct-12
10667
3131
5699
1128
2517
23142
Nov-12
10459
3087
5604
974
2541
22666
Dec-12
10082
3030
5444
979
2453
21989

Unit Production Costs

Month
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11

Tractor Mower
$1,750
$50
$1,755
$50
$1,763
$51
$1,770
$51
$1,778
$51
$1,785
$51
$1,792
$51
$1,795
$51
$1,801
$52
$1,804
$52
$1,810
$52
$1,813
$52
$1,835
$55
$1,841
$55
$1,848
$55
$1,854
$55
$1,860
$56
$1,866
$56
$1,872
$56
$1,878
$56
$1,885
$56
$1,892
$57
$1,897
$57
$1,903
$57
$1,925
$59
$1,931
$59
$1,938
$59
$1,944
$59
$1,950
$59
$1,956
$60
$1,963
$60
$1,969
$60
$1,976
$60
$1,983
$60
$1,990
$61
$1,996
$61
$1,940
$59
$1,946
$59
$1,952
$59
$1,958
$59
$1,964
$60
$1,970
$60
$1,976
$60
$1,983
$60
$1,990
$60
$1,996
$60
$2,012
$61
$2,008
$61

Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12

$2,073
$2,077
$2,081
$2,086
$2,092
$2,098
$2,104
$2,110
$2,116
$2,122
$2,129
$2,135

$63
$63
$63
$63
$63
$63
$64
$64
$64
$64
$64
$64

XLMiner : Time Series - Holt Winter(No Trend) Forecasting Method

Output Navigator
Inputs

Fitted Model

Forecast

Error Measures(Training)

Elapsed Time

Error Measures(Validation)

Inputs
Data
# Records in input data
Input data
Selected variable

60
Mower Unit Sales!$B$4:$B$63
NA

Parameters/Options
Alpha (Level)
Beta (Trend)
Gamma (Seasonality)
Season length
Number of seasons
Forecast
#Forecasts

0.2
N.A.
0.05
12
5
Yes
12

Fitted Model
Actual
6000
7950
8100
9050
9900
10200
8730
8140
6480
5990
5320
4640
5980
7620
8370
8830
9310
10230
8720
7710
6320
5840
4960
4350
6020
7920
8430
9040
9820
10370

Forecast
5985.7796
7810.30333
8302.23173
8908.99475
9566.65943
10195.4211
9002.27908
7721.36122
6535.28492
5930.38923
5239.09112
4748.83742
6063.94831
7891.51688
8287.10598
8968.60871
9577.81289
10066.2276
8905.31237
7678.45954
6418.58671
5820.74774
5136.40968
4602.46719
5841.46989
7663.31696
8172.09267
8873.14005
9536.17132
10156.8238

Residuals
14.2204004
139.696666
-202.231735
141.005248
333.340574
4.57885957
-272.27908
418.638782
-55.2849176
59.6107716
80.9088787
-108.837421
-83.9483146
-271.516875
82.8940185
-138.608712
-267.812886
163.772365
-185.312373
31.5404628
-98.5867075
19.2522612
-176.409675
-252.467189
178.530107
256.683043
257.907327
166.85995
283.828677
213.176248

Time Plot of Actual Vs Forecast (Training Data)

12000
10000
8000
NA

Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

6000
4000
2000
0
Time
Actual

Forecast

31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

9050
7620
6420
5890
5340
4430
6100
8010
8430
9110
9730
10120
9080
7820
6540
6010
5270
5380
6210
8030
8540
9120
9570
10230
9580
7680
6870
5930
5260
4830

8980.57025
7795.52802
6476.71838
5885.64925
5183.14875
4700.83888
5983.51346
7833.25531
8334.53568
9008.81087
9671.56442
10248.8889
8996.6537
7802.40311
6518.30327
5940.0421
5248.74852
4718.80972
6266.14393
8157.7996
8609.98362
9270.09575
9895.56243
10396.929
9128.21502
7977.84614
6612.40789
6070.75085
5325.18355
4797.18289

69.4297504
-175.528018
-56.7183767
4.35075131
156.851248
-270.83888
116.486538
176.744695
95.4643193
101.189127
58.435582
-128.888933
83.3462969
17.5968891
21.6967326
69.9578951
21.2514782
661.190275
-56.1439263
-127.799604
-69.9836161
-150.095752
-325.562426
-166.928964
451.784981
-297.846141
257.592115
-140.750849
-65.1835533
32.8171053

LCI
5779.95498
7654.58789
8129.71882
8794.80753
9439.67497
10013.1473
8797.07047
7533.19639
6246.85752
5641.20349
4927.57657
4415.83165

UCI
6558.40968
8433.0426
8908.17352
9573.26224
10218.1297
10791.602
9575.52517
8311.6511
7025.31222
6419.6582
5706.03127
5194.28635

Error Measures (Training)

2.14265142
156.469922
39436.1548

MAPE
MAD
MSE

Forecast
Time
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72

Forecast
6169.18233
8043.81524
8518.94617
9184.03488
9828.90232
10402.3747
9186.29782
7922.42375
6636.08487
6030.43085
5316.80392
4805.059

Elapsed Time
Overall (secs)

1.00

Date: 08-Oct-2012 08:45:51

Forecast (Training Data)

Forecast

(Ver: 4.0.0P)

XLMiner : Time Series - Double Exponential Smoothing

Output Navigator
Inputs

Fitted Model

Forecast

Error Measures(Training)

Elapsed Time

Error Measures(Validation)

Inputs
Data
# Records in input data
Input data
Selected variable

60
Mower Unit Sales!$A$4:$G$63
Pacific

Parameters/Options
Optimization Selected
Alpha (Level)
Beta (Trend)
Gamma (Seasonality)
Season length
Number of seasons
Forecast
#Forecasts

Yes
2.69555E-16
0.437764844
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Yes
12

Fitted Model
Actual
100
120
110
120
130
120
140
130
130
120
130
140
140
150
140
150
130
140
150
140
150
160
150
150
160
150
160
170
160

Forecast
111.57377
113.639066
115.704362
117.769658
119.834954
121.90025
123.965546
126.030842
128.096138
130.161434
132.22673
134.292026
136.357321
138.422617
140.487913
142.553209
144.618505
146.683801
148.749097
150.814393
152.879689
154.944985
157.010281
159.075577
161.140872
163.206168
165.271464
167.33676
169.402056

Residuals
-11.5737705
6.36093359
-5.70436232
2.23034176
10.1650458
-1.90025007
16.034454
3.9691581
1.90386218
-10.1614337
-2.22672965
5.70797444
3.64267852
11.5773826
-0.48791331
7.44679078
-14.6185051
-6.68380106
1.25090303
-10.8143929
-2.8796888
5.05501528
-7.01028063
-9.07557655
-1.14087246
-13.2061684
-5.2714643
2.66323979
-9.40205613

Time Plot of Actual Vs Forecast (Training Data)

300
250
200
Pacific

Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

150
100
50
0
Time
Actual

Forecast

30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

170
160
170
180
180
190
180
200
190
200
210
190
200
200
210
220
210
220
230
200
190
210
220
200
210
230
220
220
230
240
230

171.467352
173.532648
175.597944
177.66324
179.728536
181.793832
183.859128
185.924423
187.989719
190.055015
192.120311
194.185607
196.250903
198.316199
200.381495
202.446791
204.512087
206.577383
208.642679
210.707974
212.77327
214.838566
216.903862
218.969158
221.034454
223.09975
225.165046
227.230342
229.295638
231.360934
233.42623

-1.46735204
-13.532648
-5.59794387
2.33676021
0.2714643
8.20616838
-3.85912754
14.0755765
2.01028063
9.94498472
17.8796888
-4.18560711
3.74909697
1.68380106
9.61850514
17.5532092
5.48791331
13.4226174
21.3573215
-10.7079744
-22.7732704
-4.83856627
3.09613782
-18.9691581
-11.034454
6.90025007
-5.16504585
-7.23034176
0.70436232
8.63906641
-3.42622951

LCI
217.30066
219.365956
221.431252
223.496548
225.561844
227.62714
229.692436
231.757732
233.823028
235.888324
237.95362
240.018916

UCI
253.68239
255.747686
257.812982
259.878278
261.943574
264.00887
266.074166
268.139462
270.204758
272.270054
274.33535
276.400645

Error Measures (Training)

4.45377577
7.49816616
86.137955

MAPE
MAD
MSE

Forecast
Time
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72

Forecast
235.491525
237.556821
239.622117
241.687413
243.752709
245.818005
247.883301
249.948597
252.013893
254.079189
256.144485
258.20978

Elapsed Time
Overall (secs)

1.00

Date: 08-Oct-2012 09:01:31

Forecast (Training Data)

Forecast

(Ver: 4.0.0P)