CEE 3030 Uncertainty in

Engineering Analysis

Instructor
Lectures
Classroom
Textbook
Notes

Gilberto E. Urroz
MW 3:30-4:20 pm
ENGR ...
Spiegel et. al. PROBABILITY
AND STATISTICS, Schaum,
McGraw-Hill
See course web site

ABET Outcomes for CEE 3030 (1)

Upon successful completion of undergraduate
program for CE at USU, students will have:

http://www.engineering.usu.edu/cee/faculty/gurro
Click on Classes, then on CEE 3030

ABET Outcomes for CEE 3030 (2)

Upon successful completion of undergraduate
program for CE at USU, students will have:

Outcome 3 Shown a capacity for investigation

and experimentation into physical (engineering)
phenomena along with the ability to analyze and
interpret engineering data ...

Outcome 1 Proven themselves proficient in

mathematics, the sciences, ...
Outcome 2 Demonstrated the ability to solve
engineering problems, utilizing fundamental
engineering principles as well as the latest
technologies and engineering tools, in the process
of engineering analysis and design. ....

Class Contents (1)

1 Introduction
2 Probability
3 Random variables
4 Probability distributions
5 Samples, frequency distributions, graphs
6 Sampling distributions
7 Interval estimation
8 Regression techniques

Assignments, exams, grading

Tools

Assignments: 60% of grade

Exams: 40% of grade

MAPLE 10

Two tests (50 minutes, each): 10% of grade, each

Final exam (110 minutes):

20% of grade

Calculators

Mathematics software with statistics package

Point-and-click mathematics
Relatively easy to use
Hp 49g+
TI 89 Titanium

Spreadsheets

Excel (MS Office)

Calc (Open Office)

Uncertainty in Engineering
Analysis An Introduction (1)

Probability and statistics for engineers

Knowledge needed:

Algebra
Univariate calculus
Multivariate calculus

Types of systems

Systems e.g., pipe flow

Well-defined input and well-known system

response DETERMINISTIC

p 8 LQ 2 4Q
f ,

=
g D5 D D

Examples from Civil Engineering 1

If uncertainty exists in input or response

STOCASTIC

Examples from Civil Engineering 2

Water engineering

Transportation engineering

Statistics of transportation systems

Modeling of transportation systems

Examples from Environmental

Engineering

Turbulence time uncertainty

Hydrology

Statistics of soil samples

Earthquakes (probability of liquefaction)

Uncertainties in water quality in rivers and lakes

Hydraulics and fluid mechanics

Earthquakes (accelerations, structural responses)

Samples of concrete quality

Geotechnical engineering

Structural engineering

Statistics of weather quantities (precipitation)

Prediction of runoff
Probability of flooding/period of return

Groundwater

Uncertainties in groundwater supply

Variations in aquifer properties
Statistics of groundwater contamination

Uncertainties in location of contamination sources

(non-point source pollution)

Statistical analysis of water and air quality

Modeling of environmental contamination

Statistics of animal and fish habitat

Random variables

Statistics

Variables associated with uncertainties

Examples:

Precipitation in a basin

Number of cars per unit time in highway ramp

Strength of concrete cylinders

Science and technology of data analysis (rough

definition)
Statistical techniques:

Processing large amounts of data

Reducing data to measures and graphs
Reduced data can be used for decision making

Statistical techniques originated from

City government needs

Probability

What is probability?

Intensity of earthquakes

Number between 0 and 1

Provides estimate of how likely an event is to occur

Probability theory: science of prediction of

random systems (rough definition)
Probability theory originated to understand the
outcome of games of chance

Population, samples, inference

Taxation
Health Services

Napoleonic wars

Casualties

Statistical inference (1)

Population: all possible values of measurement or

collection of all individuals of interest in a study
Sample: sub-set of a population used to obtain
statistical measures
Statistical inference: use samples to make
inferences on population
Techniques of statistical inference:

Estimation
Hypothesis testing
Regression

Random samples

Each element selected with the same probability or

likelihood

Is representative of a population

Biased sample: not representative of population

Sample space and events

Sample space (): set of all possible outcomes of

an experiment
Events (A, B, ...): subsets of the sample space.
Example: casting a die
= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, A = {2, 4, 6}, B = {1, 3, 5}
Events are also sets:

Venn diagrams

2 A, 3 A
A , B , A B

Sets and set operations

= universal set , = empty set = {}
A , B , ...
A, A, ...
Operations:

Complement: A' = {elements not in A}

Union:
A B = {elements in A or B}
Intersection: A B = {elements in A and B}
A=,
A= A,
A = A
A=,
AA'= ,
AA'=

By definition: ' = , ' =

(A B)' = A' B'