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December 2009
ISSN: 1882-6717
The Asian Development Bank Institute’s (ADBI) research policy briefs are short, non-
technical pieces that summarize the key messages from ADBI research projects.
They are available online via http://www.adbi.org/publications/ and in hardcopy.
ISSN: 1882-6717
The views expressed in this policy brief are the views of the author(s) and do not
necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI, the Asian Development Bank
(ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not
guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this policy brief and accepts no
responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not
necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.
ADB Institute Research Policy Brief 31
Yung Chul Park is a distinguished professor in the Division of International Studies, Korea
University.
1. Introduction
Since the beginning of the second quarter of 2009, Asia has
staged an impressive recovery. The People’s Republic of China
(PRC), Indonesia, Republic of Korea, and Singapore grew by an
average annualized rate of more than 10% and emerging Asia
should grow by more than 5% in 2009 (International Monetary
Fund [IMF] 2009). Asia has benefited from a strengthening of
domestic demand and exports, but the IMF (2009) has raised
doubts about whether the recovery can be self sustaining even if
the United States and Europe fail to pull themselves out of the
current recession. All Asian countries, including the PRC,
struggled with falling exports and stagnant domestic demand in
a global economy plunged into a state of extreme volatility and
uncertainty following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. To break
free of the crisis, they have implemented stimulus packages of
varying proportions consisting of increases in public spending,
tax cuts, and the expansion of credit at lower interest rates. To
return to the path of pre-crisis growth in East Asia, however,
these stimulus measures will need to be followed by and
combined with institutional and policy reforms that reorient
long-term growth such that it depends more on domestic
demand. The purpose of this policy brief is to articulate the
rationale behind these policy changes and reform.
The severity of the impact of the crisis has varied from country to
country. The PRC and most of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) member countries have been holding up much
better than some of their neighboring countries and are likely to
register positive growth in 2009. In contrast, Japan and Asia’s
newly industrializing economies have been hit hard by the crisis.
None of these countries are forecast to realize positive growth in
2009 and the group of Asian newly industrializing economies is
expected to see a contraction of 4% of their combined gross
domestic product (GDP) (IMF 2009). In general, a high degree of
export dependence, dominance of manufactures in exported
products, and openness of domestic financial markets are shown
to have accounted for the differences in the impact of the crisis
and the relative importance of crisis contagion.
3. Crisis Management:
Stimulation of Domestic Demand
1 The term liquidity trap is used to refer to a situation where the demand for money becomes
infinitely elastic.
References
Asian Development Bank (ADB). 2009. Asian Development
Outlook 2009: Rebalancing Asia’s Growth. Manila: ADB.
Barro, R., and C. Redlick. 2009. Macroeconomic Effects from
Government Purchases and Taxes. National Bureau of
Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper 15369.
Cambridge, MA: NBER.
Blanchard, O. J., and F. Giavazzi. 2006. Rebalancing Growth in
China: A Three-Handed Approach. China and World
Economy 14(4): 1–20.
Horioka, C. Y., and J. Wan. 2008. Why Does China Save So
Much? In China, Asia and the New World Economy, edited
by B. Eichengreen, C. Wyplosz, and Y. C. Park. Oxford,
UK: Oxford University Press.
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2008. World Economic
Outlook Update: Rapidly Weakening Prospects Call for
New Policy Stimulus. Washington, DC: IMF.
———. 2009. World Economic Outlook: Sustaining the Recovery.
Washington, DC: IMF.
December 2009
ISSN: 1882-6717