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Extract from:
Arcones Manual for the SOA Exam MLC. Spring 2010
Edition.
available at http://www.actexmadriver.com/
1/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
2/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Definition 2
The present value of a whole life due annuity for (x) with unit
payment is denoted by Yx .
Yx is a random variable that depends on Tx . Recall that Kx is the
interval of death of (x), i.e. Kx is the positive integer such that
the death of (x) takes place in the interval (Kx 1, Kx ].
Definition 3
The actuarial present value of a whole life due annuity for (x) with
unit payment is denoted by ax .
We have that ax = E [Yx ].
3/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 1
(i) Yx = aKx | =
(ii) If i 6= 0,
PKx 1
k=0
vk.
1 Zx
1 v Kx
=
,
Yx =
d
d
X
1 vk
1 Ax
ax =
k1 |qx =
d
d
k=1
and
2 A A2
Var(Zx )
x
x
=
,
d2
d2
where Zx is the present value of a unit life insurance paid at the
end of the year of death.
(iii) If i = 0, Yx = Kx = K (x) + 1, ax = ex + 1 and
Var(Yx ) = Var(K (x)).
Var(Yx ) =
4/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
X
X
1 vk
ax = E [aKx | ] =
ak| P{Kx = k} =
k1 |qx ,
d
k=1
k=1
1 Zx
1 Ax
,
ax = E
=
d
d
2 A A2
1 Zx
Var(Zx )
x
x
Var(Yx ) = Var
=
=
.
d
d2
d2
(iii) If i = 0, Yx = aKx | = Kx = K (x) + 1, ax = ex + 1 and
Var(Yx ) = Var(K (x)).
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
5/114
Example 1
i = 5%. Kx has probability mass function:
k
P{Kx = k}
1
0.2
2
0.3
3
0.5
6/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 1
i = 5%. Kx has probability mass function:
k
P{Kx = k}
1
0.2
2
0.3
3
0.5
P{Yx = k}
1
0.2
1.952380952
0.3
2.859410431
0.5
Hence,
7/114
Example 2
Suppose that px+k = 0.97, for each integer k 0, and i = 6.5%.
Find ax and Var(Yx ).
8/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 2
Suppose that px+k = 0.97, for each integer k 0, and i = 6.5%.
Find ax and Var(Yx ).
Solution: Recall that if pk = p, for each k 1, then Ax =
Hence,
qx
qx +i .
qx
0.03
=
= 0.3157894737,
qx + i
0.03 + 0.065
1 Ax
1 0.3157894737
ax =
=
= 11.21052632,
d
0.065/1.065
qx
0.03
2
Ax =
=
= 0.1826762064,
qx + i(2 + i)
0.03 + (0.065)(2 + 0.065)
2 A A2
0.1826762064 (0.3157894737)2
x
x
Var(Yx ) =
=
= 22.26925679
d2
(0.065/1.065)2
Ax =
9/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 3
Assuming i = 6% and the life table in the manual, find a45 .
10/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 3
Assuming i = 6% and the life table in the manual, find a45 .
Solution: We have that
a45 =
1 A45
1 0.16657
=
= 14.72393.
d
0.06/(1.06)
11/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 4
John, age 65, has $750,000 in his retirement account. An
insurance company offers a whole life due annuity to John which
pays $P at the beginning of the year while (65) is alive for
$750,000. The annuity is priced assuming that i = 6% and the life
table in the manual. The insurance company charges John 30%
more of the APV of the annuity. Calculate P.
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 4
John, age 65, has $750,000 in his retirement account. An
insurance company offers a whole life due annuity to John which
pays $P at the beginning of the year while (65) is alive for
$750,000. The annuity is priced assuming that i = 6% and the life
table in the manual. The insurance company charges John 30%
more of the APV of the annuity. Calculate P.
Solution: We have that
a65 =
1 A65
1 0.37610
=
= 11.0222333333333.
d
0.06/(1.06)
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 2
If i 6= 0,
2Yx (2 d) 2 Yx
Yx2 =
d
and
2ax (2 d) 2 ax
E [Yx2 ] =
.
d
Proof.
From Yx =
1Zx
d ,
1 2Zx + 2 Zx
1 2(1 d Yx ) + 1 d(2 d) 2 Yx
Yx2 =
=
2
d
d2
2Yx (2 d) 2 Yx
=
.
d
14/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 5
Suppose that i = 0.075, ax = 8.6 and 2 ax = 5.6.
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 5
Suppose that i = 0.075, ax = 8.6 and 2 ax = 5.6.
(i) Calculate Var(Yx ) using the previous theorem.
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 5
Suppose that i = 0.075, ax = 8.6 and 2 ax = 5.6.
(i) Calculate Var(Yx ) using the previous theorem.
Solution: (i) We have that
E [Yx2 ] =
2ax (2 d) 2 ax
2(8.6) (2 (0.075/1.075))(5.6)
=
d
0.075/1.075
=91.6,
Var(Yx ) = 91.6 (8.6)2 = 17.64.
17/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 5
Suppose that i = 0.075, ax = 8.6 and 2 ax = 5.6.
(ii) Calculate Var(Yx ) using Ax and 2 Ax .
18/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 5
Suppose that i = 0.075, ax = 8.6 and 2 ax = 5.6.
(ii) Calculate Var(Yx ) using Ax and 2 Ax .
x
Solution: (ii) Using that ax = 1A
ax =
d , we get that Ax = 1 d
2
1 (0.075/1.075)(8.6) = 0.4. Since Ax uses a discount factor of
v 2,
2
Hence,
Var(Yx ) =
2A
x
A2x
0.2458626284 (0.4)2
=
= 17.63999999.
d2
(0.075/1.075)2
19/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 3
(current payment method)
Yx =
ax =
1
Zx:k|
,
k=0
k=0
k=0
k Ex =
v k k px .
20/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 3
(current payment method)
Yx =
ax =
1
Zx:k|
,
k=0
k=0
k=0
k Ex =
v k k px .
KX
x 1
vk =
k=0
ax = E [Yx ] =
v k I (k < Tx ) =
k=0
k Ex
k=0
1
Zx:k|
,
k=0
v k k px .
k=0
21/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 6
Consider the life table
x
`x
80
250
81
217
82
161
83
107
84
62
85
28
86
0
An 80year old buys a due life annuity which will pay $50000 at
the end of the year. Suppose that i = 6.5%. Calculate the single
benefit premium for this annuity.
22/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 6
Consider the life table
x
`x
80
250
81
217
82
161
83
107
84
62
85
28
86
0
An 80year old buys a due life annuity which will pay $50000 at
the end of the year. Suppose that i = 6.5%. Calculate the single
benefit premium for this annuity.
Solution:
X
217
161
`80+k
a80 =
vk
= 1 + (1.065)1
+ (1.065)2
`80
250
250
k=0
107
62
28
+ (1.065)4
+ (1.065)5
250
250
250
=1 + 0.81502347418 + 0.5677885781 + 0.35431941129
+ (1.065)3
23/114
n1
X
v k (n k) =
k=0
n an|i
.
d
Theorem 4
Suppose that the mortality of (x) follows De Moivres model with
integer terminal age , where x and are nonnegative integers.
Then,
(D
a)x|
(i) ax = x
.
xax|
d(x) .
x+1
ax = 2 .
(ii) If i 6= 0, ax =
(iii) If i = 0,
24/114
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Proof: (i)
ax =
k px
x1
X
k=0
vk
k=0
(Da)x|
x k
=
.
x
x
x|
x ax|
1 x
1 Ax
ax =
=
=
.
d
d
d( x)
(iii) ax = ex + 1 =
x+1
.
2
25/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 7
Suppose that i = 6% and De Moivres model with terminal age
100.
(i) Find a30 using A30 .
xax|
(ii) Find a30 using ax = d(x)
.
26/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 7
Suppose that i = 6% and De Moivres model with terminal age
100.
(i) Find a30 using A30 .
xax|
(ii) Find a30 using ax = d(x)
.
Solution: (i) We have that
A30 =
ax|i
x
a70|0.06
70
= 0.2340649124.
Hence,
a30 =
1 A30
1 0.2340649124
=
= 13.53151988.
0.06
d
1.06
27/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 7
Suppose that i = 6% and De Moivres model with terminal age
100.
(i) Find a30 using A30 .
xax|
(ii) Find a30 using ax = d(x)
.
Solution: (i) We have that
A30 =
ax|i
x
a70|0.06
70
= 0.2340649124.
Hence,
a30 =
1 A30
1 0.2340649124
=
= 13.53151988.
0.06
d
1.06
(ii)
a30 =
70 a70|0.06
0.06
1.06 70
70 16.38454387
= 13.53151988.
0.06
1.06 70
28/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 5
(Iterative formula for the APV of a life annuitydue)
ax = 1 + vpx ax+1 .
29/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 5
(Iterative formula for the APV of a life annuitydue)
ax = 1 + vpx ax+1 .
Proof: We have that
ax =
v k px = 1 +
k=0
=1 + vpx
v k px k1 px+1
k=1
v k1 k1 px+1
k=1
=1 + vpx
k=0
30/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 8
Suppose that ax = ax+1 = 10 and qx = 0.01. Find i.
31/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 8
Suppose that ax = ax+1 = 10 and qx = 0.01. Find i.
Solution: Using that ax = 1 + vpx ax+1 , we get that
101
10 = 1 + v (0.99)(10), v = (0.99)(10)
and i = (0.99)(10)
1 = 10%.
101
32/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 6
If the probability function of time interval of failure is
P{Kx = k} = pxk1 (1 px ), k = 1, 2, . . .
then
ax = E [Zx ] =
1+i
1
=
.
1 vpx
i + qx
33/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 6
If the probability function of time interval of failure is
P{Kx = k} = pxk1 (1 px ), k = 1, 2, . . .
then
ax = E [Zx ] =
1+i
1
=
.
1 vpx
i + qx
k
k px = P{K k + 1} =
j=k+1 px (1 px ) = (1 px ) 1px = px .
So,
ax =
X
k=0
v k k px =
v k pxk =
k=0
1
1+i
1+i
=
=
.
1 vpx
1 + i px
i + qx
34/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 6
If the probability function of time interval of failure is
P{Kx = k} = pxk1 (1 px ), k = 1, 2, . . .
then
ax = E [Zx ] =
1+i
1
=
.
1 vpx
i + qx
k
k px = P{K k + 1} =
j=k+1 px (1 px ) = (1 px ) 1px = px .
So,
ax =
X
k=0
v k k px =
v k pxk =
k=0
1
1+i
1+i
=
=
.
1 vpx
1 + i px
i + qx
35/114
1
Recall that a = d1 = 1v
. For a whole life annuity, we need to
1
.
discount for interest and mortality and we get ax = 1vp
x
36/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 9
An insurance company issues 800 identical due annuities to
independent lives aged 65. Each of of this annuities provides an
annual payment of 30000. Suppose that px+k = 0.95 for each
integer k 0, and i = 7.5%.
37/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 9
An insurance company issues 800 identical due annuities to
independent lives aged 65. Each of of this annuities provides an
annual payment of 30000. Suppose that px+k = 0.95 for each
integer k 0, and i = 7.5%.
(i) Find ax and Var(Yx ).
38/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 9
An insurance company issues 800 identical due annuities to
independent lives aged 65. Each of of this annuities provides an
annual payment of 30000. Suppose that px+k = 0.95 for each
integer k 0, and i = 7.5%.
(i) Find ax and Var(Yx ).
Solution: (i) We have that
1
1
1.075
=
=
= 8.6,
1
1 vpx
1 (1.075) (0.95)
1.075 0.95
qx
0.05
Ax =
=
= 0.4,
qx + i
0.075 + 0.05
qx
0.05
2
Ax =
=
= 0.2444988,
qx + i(2 + i)
0.05 + (0.075)(2 + 0.075)
2 A A2
0.2444988 (0.4)2
x
x
Var(Yx ) =
=
= 17.35981.
d2
(0.075/1.075)2
ax =
39/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 9
An insurance company issues 800 identical due annuities to
independent lives aged 65. Each of of this annuities provides an
annual payment of 30000. Suppose that px+k = 0.95 for each
integer k 0, and i = 7.5%.
(ii) Using the central limit theorem, estimate the initial fund needed
at time zero in order that the probability that the present value of
the random loss for this block of policies exceeds this fund is 1%.
40/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 9
An insurance company issues 800 identical due annuities to
independent lives aged 65. Each of of this annuities provides an
annual payment of 30000. Suppose that px+k = 0.95 for each
integer k 0, and i = 7.5%.
(ii) Using the central limit theorem, estimate the initial fund needed
at time zero in order that the probability that the present value of
the random loss for this block of policies exceeds this fund is 1%.
Solution: (ii) Let Yx,1 , . . . , Yx,800 be the present value per unit face
value for the 800 due annuities. Let Q be the fund needed.
800
X
E[
30000Yx,j ] = (30000)(800)(8.6) = 206400000,
j=1
800
X
Var(
30000Yx,j ) = (30000)2 (800)(17.35981) = 12499063200000,
j=1
41/114
Theorem 7
For the constant force of mortality model,
ax =
1
1+i
1
=
=
,
1 vpx
i + qx
1 e (+)
where qx = 1 e .
42/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 7
For the constant force of mortality model,
ax =
1
1+i
1
=
=
,
1 vpx
i + qx
1 e (+)
where qx = 1 e .
Proof: We have that
P{Kx = k} = e (k1) (1 e ), k = 1, 2, . . . Theorem 6 applies
1
1
with px = e . We have that ax = 1vp
= 1e (+)
.
x
43/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Definition 5
The present value of a whole life immediate annuity for (x) with
unit payment is denoted by Yx .
Notice that Yx is a random variable. Yx depends on Tx . It is easy
to see that Yx = Yx 1.
Definition 6
The actuarial present value of a whole life immediate annuity for
(x) with unit payment is denoted by ax .
We have that ax = ax 1.
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem
P
(i) Yx = aKx 1| and ax =
k=2 ak1| k1 |qx .
(ii) If i 6= 0,
Yx =
2 A A2
v Zx
v Ax
1 (1 + i)Zx
x
x
=
, ax =
and Var(Yx ) =
,
i
d
d
d2
45/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 8
(i) Yx = aKx 1| and ax =
k=2 ak1|
k1 |qx .
46/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 8
P
(i) Yx = aKx 1| and ax =
k=2 ak1| k1 |qx .
Proof: (i) Since death happens in the interval (Kx 1, Kx ], payments of one are made at times 1, 2, . . . , Kx 1, payments of one are
made at times 1, 2, . . . , Kx 1, i.e. the cashflow of payments is an
annuity immediate. Hence, Yx = aKx 1| . If Kx = 1, Yx = a0| = 0.
Therefore,
ax = E [aKx 1| ] =
ak1| P{Kx = k} =
k=2
ak1| k1 |qx .
k=2
47/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 8
(ii) If i 6= 0,
Yx =
2 A A2
v Zx
v Ax
x
x
, ax =
and Var(Yx ) =
,
2
d
d
d
48/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 8
(ii) If i 6= 0,
Yx =
2 A A2
v Zx
v Ax
x
x
, ax =
and Var(Yx ) =
,
2
d
d
d
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 8
(iii) If i = 0, Yx = Kx 1 = K (x), ax = ex and Var(Yx ) =
Var(K (x)).
50/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 8
(iii) If i = 0, Yx = Kx 1 = K (x), ax = ex and Var(Yx ) =
Var(K (x)).
(iii) If i 6= 0, Yx = aKx 1| = Kx 1 = K (x).
51/114
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Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 10
Suppose that px+k = 0.97, for each integer k 0, and i = 6.5%.
Find ax and Var(Yx ).
52/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 10
Suppose that px+k = 0.97, for each integer k 0, and i = 6.5%.
Find ax and Var(Yx ).
Solution: We have that
qx
1 0.97
=
= 0.3157894737,
qx + i
1 0.97 + 0.065
v Ax
(1.065)1 0.3157894737
ax =
=
= 10.21052632,
d
0.065/1.065
qx
1 0.97
2
Ax =
=
= 0.1826762064,
qx + (2 + i)i
1 0.97 + (2 + 0.065)(0.065)
2 A A2
0.1826762064 (0.3157894737)2
x
x
Var(Yx ) =
=
d2
(0.065/1.065)2
=22.26925679.
Ax =
53/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 11
Suppose that i = 6% and the De Moivre model with terminal age
100. Find a30 .
54/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 11
Suppose that i = 6% and the De Moivre model with terminal age
100. Find a30 .
Solution: We have that
A30 =
a70|0.06
70
= 0.2340649124.
Hence,
a30 =
(1.06)1 0.2340649124
A30
=
= 12.53151988.
d
(0.06)(1.06)1
55/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 9
If i 6= 0,
Yx2 =
2Yx (2 + i) 2 Yx
i
and
E [Yx2 ] =
2ax (2 + i) 2 ax
.
i
56/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 9
If i 6= 0,
Yx2 =
2Yx (2 + i) 2 Yx
i
and
E [Yx2 ] =
Proof: We have that Yx =
2Y
x
Similarly,
Therefore,
1(1+i)2 Z
i(2+i)
2ax (2 + i) 2 ax
.
i
1(1+i)Zx
.
i
and (1 +
i)2 Z
= 1 i(2 + i) 2 Yx .
57/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 12
Suppose that i = 0.075, ax = 7.6 and 2 ax = 4.6.
(i) Calculate Var(Yx ) using the previous theorem.
(ii) Calculate Var(Yx ) using Ax and 2 Ax .
58/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 12
Suppose that i = 0.075, ax = 7.6 and 2 ax = 4.6.
(i) Calculate Var(Yx ) using the previous theorem.
(ii) Calculate Var(Yx ) using Ax and 2 Ax .
Solution: (i) We have that
2ax (2 + i) 2 ax
2(7.6) (2.075)(4.6)
=
= 75.4,
i
0.075
Var(Yx ) = 75.4 (7.6)2 = 17.64.
E [Yx2 ] =
59/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 12
Suppose that i = 0.075, ax = 7.6 and 2 ax = 4.6.
(i) Calculate Var(Yx ) using the previous theorem.
(ii) Calculate Var(Yx ) using Ax and 2 Ax .
Solution: (ii) Using that ax =
1(0.075)(7.6)
1.075
1(1+i)Ax
,
i
1iax
1+i
+ i)2 ,
we get that Ax =
1 i(2 + i) 2 ax
1 (0.075)(2 + 0.075)(4.6)
=
(1 + i)2
(1.075)2
=0.2458626284.
2
Ax =
Hence,
Var(Yx ) =
2A
x
A2x
0.2458626284 (0.4)2
=
= 17.63999999.
d2
(0.075/1.075)2
60/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 10
(current payment method) Yx =
ax =
X
k=1
1
Ax:k|
=
X
k=1
1
k=1 Zx:k|
k Ex
and
k k px ,
k=1
61/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 10
(current payment method) Yx =
ax =
1
Ax:k|
=
k=1
1
k=1 Zx:k|
k Ex
k=1
and
k k px ,
k=1
X
X
k
1
Yx =
I (k < Tx ) =
Zx:k|
k=1
and
ax =
X
k=1
1
Ax:k|
k=1
X
k=1
k Ex
k k px .
k=1
62/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 11
If the probability function of time interval of failure is is
P{K = k} = pxk1 (1 px ), k = 1, 2, . . .
then
ax = E [Zx ] =
vpx
1q
=
.
1 vpx
q+i
63/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 11
If the probability function of time interval of failure is is
P{K = k} = pxk1 (1 px ), k = 1, 2, . . .
then
ax = E [Zx ] =
vpx
1q
=
.
1 vpx
q+i
X
k=1
v k px =
v k pxk =
k=1
vpx
p
1 qx
=
=
.
1 vpx
1 + i px
qx + i
64/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 13
Suppose that px+k = 0.95, for each integer k 0, and i = 7.5%.
Find ax .
65/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 13
Suppose that px+k = 0.95, for each integer k 0, and i = 7.5%.
Find ax .
Solution: We have that
ax =
p
0.95
=
= 7.6.
1 + i px
1.075 0.95
66/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 12
For the constant force of mortality model,
ax =
vpx
1 qx
e (+)
=
=
.
1 vpx
qx + i
1 e (+)
67/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 12
For the constant force of mortality model,
ax =
vpx
1 qx
e (+)
=
=
.
1 vpx
qx + i
1 e (+)
vpx
1 qx
e (+)
.
=
=
1 vpx
qx + i
1 e (+)
68/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 13
ax = px (1 + ax+1 ).
69/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 13
ax = px (1 + ax+1 ).
Proof: We have that
ax =
k k px =
k=1
=px
1+
k px k1 px+1
k=1
k1
k1 px+1
k=2
=px (1 +
k k px+1 ) = px (1 + ax+1 ).
k=1
70/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 14
Using i = 0.05 and a certain life table a30 = 4.52. Suppose that an
actuary revises this life table and changes p30 from 0.95 to 0.96.
Other values in the life table are unchanged. Find a30 using the
revised life table.
71/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 14
Using i = 0.05 and a certain life table a30 = 4.52. Suppose that an
actuary revises this life table and changes p30 from 0.95 to 0.96.
Other values in the life table are unchanged. Find a30 using the
revised life table.
Solution: Using that
4.52 = a30 = vp30 (1 + a31 ) = (1.05)1 (0.95)(1 + a31 ), we get that
a31 = (4.52)(1.05)
1 = 3.995789474. The revised value of a30 is
0.95
1
(1.05) (0.96)(1 + 3.995789474) = 4.567578948.
72/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Definition 7
A whole life continuous annuity is a continuous flow of
payments with constant rate made while an individual is alive.
Definition 8
The present value random variable of a whole life continuous
annuity for (x) with unit rate is denoted by Y x .
Definition 9
The actuarial present value of a whole life continuous annuity for
(x) with unit rate is denoted by ax .
We have that ax = E [Y x ].
73/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 14
(i) Y x = aTx | .
(ii) If 6= 0,
2
2A A
1 Zx
1 Ax
x
x
Yx =
, ax =
and Var(Y x ) =
.
(iii) If = 0, Y x = Tx and ax = e x .
74/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 14
(i) Y x = aTx | .
(ii) If 6= 0,
2
2A A
1 Zx
1 Ax
x
x
Yx =
, ax =
and Var(Y x ) =
.
(iii) If = 0, Y x = Tx and ax = e x .
Proof: (i) Since payments are received at rate one until time Tx ,
Y x = aTx | .
75/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 14
(i) Y x = aTx | .
(ii) If 6= 0,
2
2A A
1 Zx
1 Ax
x
x
Yx =
, ax =
and Var(Y x ) =
.
(iii) If = 0, Y x = Tx and ax = e x .
Proof: (ii) If 6= 0, an|i =
Y x = aTx |
1e n
,
1 Zx
1 v Tx
1 Zx
1 Ax
=
=
, ax = E
=
and
Var(Y x ) = Var
1 Zx
=
2A A
Var(Z x )
x
x
=
.
2
2
76/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 14
(i) Y x = aTx | .
(ii) If 6= 0,
2
2A A
1 Zx
1 Ax
x
x
Yx =
, ax =
and Var(Y x ) =
.
(iii) If = 0, Y x = Tx and ax = e x .
77/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 15
Suppose that v = 0.92, and the force of mortality is x+t = 0.02,
for t 0. Find ax and Var(Y x ).
78/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 15
Suppose that v = 0.92, and the force of mortality is x+t = 0.02,
for t 0. Find ax and Var(Y x ).
Solution: Using previous theorem,
Ax =
0.02
= 0.1934580068,
ln(0.92) + 0.02
1 Ax
1 0.1934580068
=
= 9.672900337,
ln(0.92)
0.02
2
Ax =
= 0.1070874674,
(2)( ln(0.92)) + 0.02
ax =
2A A
Var(Z x )
0.1070874674 (0.1934580068)2
x
x
=
=
2
2
( ln(0.92))2
=10.01963899.
79/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
80/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 15
If 6= 0,
2
E [Y x ] =
2(ax 2 ax )
.
81/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 15
If 6= 0,
2(ax 2 ax )
.
E [Y x ] =
Proof: From
Hence,
ma
1m Ax
m ,
"
we get that
2 #
mA
x
= 1 m m ax .
1 2Zx + 2 Zx
=E
=E
2
1 2(1 ax ) + 1 2 2 ax
2(ax 2 ax )
=E
=
.
2
2
E [Y x ]
1 Zx
82/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 16
Suppose that ax = 12, 2 ax = 7 and = 0.05.
2
x
(i) Find Var(Y x ) using that Var(Y x ) = AxA
.
2
(ii) Find Var(Y x ) using previous theorem.
83/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 16
Suppose that ax = 12, 2 ax = 7 and = 0.05.
2
x
(i) Find Var(Y x ) using that Var(Y x ) = AxA
.
2
(ii) Find Var(Y x ) using previous theorem.
Solution: (i) We have that
Ax = 1 ax = 1 (12)(0.05) = 0.4,
2
Ax = 1 2 ax 2 = 1 (7)(2)(0.05) = 0.3.
Hence,
Var(Y x ) =
2A
x
Ax
0.3 (0.4)2
=
= 56.
2
(0.05)2
0.05
Var(Y x ) = 200 (12)2 = 56.
2
E [Y x ] =
84/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 16
(current payment method)
Z
Z
t
ax =
v t px dt =
0
t Ex
dt.
x
Proof: Let
0. Let
R x h(x) = v R, xx
t
H(x) = 0 h(t) dt = 0 v dt = ax| , x 0. By a previous theorem,
Z
E [Y x ] = E [aTx | ] = E [H(Tx )] =
Z
h(t)sTx (t) dt =
v t t px dt.
85/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 17
Suppose that = 0.05 and t px = 0.01te 01.t , t 0. Calculate ax .
86/114
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2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 17
Suppose that = 0.05 and t px = 0.01te 01.t , t 0. Calculate ax .
R
n+1
Solution: Using that 0 t n e t/ dt = n! ,
Z
Z
ax =
v t t px dt =
e (0.05)t 0.01te 0.1t dt
0
Z 0
0.01
0.15t
= 0.444444444.
=
0.01te
dt =
2
(0.15)
0
87/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 17
The cumulative distribution function of Y x = aTx | is
FY x (y ) =
FTx
if y < 0,
)
ln(1y
Proof.
The function y = H(x) = ax| =
if 0 < y ax| ,
if ax| y .
1e x
is
x
1e
,
increasing. If
x
y = H(x) = 1e , then y =
e x = 1
)
x = ln(1y
. Hence, the inverse function of H is
ln(1y )
1
H (y ) = , y 0. Hence, if 0 < y ,
y and
FY x (y ) = P{Y x y } = P {H(Tx ) y } = P Tx H 1 (y )
ln(1 y )
ln(1 y )
=P Tx
= FTx
.
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
88/114
Theorem 18
The probability density function of Y x = aTx | is
fY x (z) =
ln(1y )
fTx
1y
fY x (y ) =
d
d
FY x (y ) =
FT
dy
dy x
ln(1 y )
=
)
fTx ln(1y
1 y
89/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Corollary 1
Under the De Moivre model with terminal age , Y x is a
continuous r.v. with cumulative distribution function
FY x (y ) =
ln(1 y )
,
( x)
if 0 < y ax| .
1
,
(1 y )( x)
if 0 < y ax| .
t
x
and
90/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Corollary 2
Under constant force of mortality , Y x is a continuous r.v. with
cumulative distribution function
FY x (y ) = 1 (1 y ) ,
1
0<y .
1
fY x (y ) = (1 y ) 1 , 0 < y < .
91/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
=1 (1 y ) .
Y x has density
fY x (y ) = FY0 (y ) = (1 y ) 1 ,
x
1
0<y < .
92/114
c
2009.
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93/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 19
Under De Moivres model with terminal age ,
Da x|i
x ax|
=
.
ax =
( x)
x
94/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 19
Under De Moivres model with terminal age ,
Da x|i
x ax|
=
.
ax =
( x)
x
Proof: We have that
a
x|
x ax|
1 x
1 Ax
ax =
=
=
( x)
and
Z
v t px dt =
ax =
0
Da x|i
x t
v
dt =
x
x
t
95/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 18
Suppose that i = 6.5% and deaths are uniformly distributed with
terminal age 100.
(i) Calculate the density of Y 40 .
x
(ii) Calculate a40 using that ax = 1A
.
(iii) Calculate a40 using that ax =
xax|
(x) .
96/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 18
Suppose that i = 6.5% and deaths are uniformly distributed with
terminal age 100.
(i) Calculate the density of Y 40 .
x
(ii) Calculate a40 using that ax = 1A
.
(iii) Calculate a40 using that ax =
xax|
(x) .
97/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 18
Suppose that i = 6.5% and deaths are uniformly distributed with
terminal age 100.
(i) Calculate the density of Y 40 .
x
(ii) Calculate a40 using that ax = 1A
.
(iii) Calculate a40 using that ax =
xax|
(x) .
a60|0.065
60
1 (1.065)60
= 0.2586068254.
(60) ln(1.065)
Hence,
a40 =
1 A40
1 0.2586068254
=
= 11.77285493.
ln(1.065)
98/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 18
Suppose that i = 6.5% and deaths are uniformly distributed with
terminal age 100.
(i) Calculate the density of Y 40 .
x
(ii) Calculate a40 using that ax = 1A
.
(iii) Calculate a40 using that ax =
xax|
(x) .
1 (1.065)60
= 15.51640952.
ln(1.065)
Hence,
a40 =
100 40 a10040|
(ln(1.065))(60)
60 15.51640952
= 11.77285493.
(ln(1.065))(60)
99/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 20
Under constant force of mortality , ax =
1
+ .
Proof.
We have that
1 +
1 Ax
1
ax =
=
=
.
100/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 19
Suppose that = 0.07 and the force of mortality is 0.02.
(i) Calculate the density of Y 40 .
(ii) Calculate a40 .
(iii) Calculate the variance of Y 40 .
101/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 19
Suppose that = 0.07 and the force of mortality is 0.02.
(i) Calculate the density of Y 40 .
(ii) Calculate a40 .
(iii) Calculate the variance of Y 40 .
Solution: (i) The density of Y 40 is
5
1
fY 40 (t) = (0.02)(1 0.07y ) 7 , 0 < y <
.
0.07
102/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 19
Suppose that = 0.07 and the force of mortality is 0.02.
(i) Calculate the density of Y 40 .
(ii) Calculate a40 .
(iii) Calculate the variance of Y 40 .
Solution: (i) The density of Y 40 is
5
1
fY 40 (t) = (0.02)(1 0.07y ) 7 , 0 < y <
.
0.07
1
(ii) a40 = 0.07+0.02
= 11.1111111111111
103/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 19
Suppose that = 0.07 and the force of mortality is 0.02.
(i) Calculate the density of Y 40 .
(ii) Calculate a40 .
(iii) Calculate the variance of Y 40 .
Solution: (i) The density of Y 40 is
5
1
fY 40 (t) = (0.02)(1 0.07y ) 7 , 0 < y <
.
0.07
1
(ii) a40 = 0.07+0.02
= 11.1111111111111
(iii)
0.02
A40 =
= 0.222222222222222,
0.02 + 0.07
0.02
2
A40 =
= 0.125,
0.02 + (2)0.07
0.125 (0.222222222222222)2
Var(Y 40 ) =
= 15.4320987654321.
(0.07)2
104/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Theorem 21
Suppose that Tx has a pth quantile p such that
P{Tx < p } = p = P{Tx p }.
Tx
is b 1e
105/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 20
Suppose that i = 6% and De Moivre model with terminal age 100.
(i) Calculate the 30% percentile and the 70% percentiles of Y 30 .
(ii) Calculate a30 .
(iii) Calculate the variance of Y 30 .
106/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 20
Suppose that i = 6% and De Moivre model with terminal age 100.
(i) Calculate the 30% percentile and the 70% percentiles of Y 30 .
(ii) Calculate a30 .
(iii) Calculate the variance of Y 30 .
Solution: (i) Let 0.30 the 30% percentile of T30 . We have that
0.3 = FT30 (0.30 ) = 0.30
70 . So, 0.30 = 21. The 30% percentile of
T30
21
Y 30 = 1(1.06)
is 1(1.06)
= 12.11357171.
ln(1.06)
ln(1.06)
Let 0.70 the 70% percentile of T30 . We have that 0.7 =
So, 0.70 = 49. The 70% percentile of
FT30 (0.70 ) = 0.70
70 .
Y 30 =
1(1.06)T30
ln(1.06)
is
1(1.06)49
ln(1.06)
= 16.17422339.
107/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 20
Suppose that i = 6% and De Moivre model with terminal age 100.
(i) Calculate the 30% percentile and the 70% percentiles of Y 30 .
(ii) Calculate a30 .
(iii) Calculate the variance of Y 30 .
Solution: (ii) We have that
A30 =
a70|i
x
1 (1.06)70
= 0.2410186701
(70) ln(1.06)
and
a30 =
1 A30
1 0.2410186701
=
= 13.02549429.
ln(1.06)
108/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 20
Suppose that i = 6% and De Moivre model with terminal age 100.
(i) Calculate the 30% percentile and the 70% percentiles of Y 30 .
(ii) Calculate a30 .
(iii) Calculate the variance of Y 30 .
Solution: (iii) We have that
2
A30 =
a70|(1+i)2 1
x
1 (1.06)(2)(70)
= 0.1225492409
(70)(2) ln(1.06)
and
Var(Y 30 ) =
2A
30
(A30 )2
0.1225492409 (0.2410186701)2
=
2
(ln(1.06))2
=207.8908307.
109/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 21
Suppose that v = 0.92 and that the force of mortality is
x+t = 0.02, for t 0.
(i) Calculate the density of Y x .
(ii) Calculate the first, second and third quartiles of Y x .
(iii) Calculate ax .
110/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 21
Suppose that v = 0.92 and that the force of mortality is
x+t = 0.02, for t 0.
(i) Calculate the density of Y x .
(ii) Calculate the first, second and third quartiles of Y x .
(iii) Calculate ax .
Solution: (i) We have that
0.02
ln(0.92)
1
fY x (y ) = (1 y ) 1 = (0.02)(1 + ln(0.92)y )
1
if 0 < y
.
ln(0.92)
111/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 21
Suppose that v = 0.92 and that the force of mortality is
x+t = 0.02, for t 0.
(i) Calculate the density of Y x .
(ii) Calculate the first, second and third quartiles of Y x .
(iii) Calculate ax .
Solution: (ii) Let p the 100(p)% percentile of Y x . We have that
0.02
So, p =
1(1p) 0.02
ln(0.92)
0.25
1 (1 0.25)
=
ln(0.92)
= 8.378536891.
112/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 21
Suppose that v = 0.92 and that the force of mortality is
x+t = 0.02, for t 0.
(i) Calculate the density of Y x .
(ii) Calculate the first, second and third quartiles of Y x .
(iii) Calculate ax .
Solution: (ii)
The median of Y x is
ln(0.92)
0.5
1 (1 0.5) 0.02
=
ln(0.92)
= 11.3263815.
ln(0.92)
0.02
1 (1 0.75)
=
ln(0.92)
= 11.95599338.
113/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.
Example 21
Suppose that v = 0.92 and that the force of mortality is
x+t = 0.02, for t 0.
(i) Calculate the density of Y x .
(ii) Calculate the first, second and third quartiles of Y x .
(iii) Calculate ax .
Solution: (iii) We have that
ax =
1
1
=
= 9.672900338.
+
0.02 ln(0.92)
114/114
c
2009.
Miguel A. Arcones. All rights reserved.