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Table of contents
Local markets
Atlanta
Chicago
Dallas-Fort Worth
Houston
10
Los Angeles
11
Minneapolis-St. Paul
12
13
Northern Virginia
14
Phoenix
15
Seattle-Portland
16
Silicon Valley
17
18
Contacts
19
printing plant into a 400,000 square-foot data center. The deal allows
QTS to proceed with an expensive retrofit and still get the returns they
are targeting. For Chicago, it means job growth and transforming an
obsolete building into an economic driver for the city.
Industry insight
IT spending growth is tracking slower than expected due to increased
price competition and the adoption of lower cost, typically cloud-based
solutions. Data centers typically account for up to 44.0 percent of overall
IT spending. According to the Gartner Worldwide IT Spending
Forecast, total IT spending in 2014 will top $3.75 trillion worldwide.
However, spending growth is expected to accelerate in 2015 as the
transition to digital business concludes and the next phase of personal
cloud movement infiltrates consumer-focused IT.
The rate of IT spending growth is expected to jump 3.7 percent
next year
% Change in worldwide IT spending growth
3.7%
4.0%
3.6%
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
Employment
2.1%
2.0%
500,000
1.0%
400,000
300,000
0.0%
200,000
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Gartner Worldwide IT Spending Forecast, Q2 2014
100,000
0
2005
2007
2009
Source: IBISWorld, July 2014
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2018
Market segments
Retail colocation
Wholesale colocation
Definition
Major providers
AT&T
CyrusOne
ViaWest
Telx
Equinix
QTS Realty Trust
Verizon/Terremark
Internap
CenturyLink
CoreSite
Digital Realty Trust
DuPont Fabros
Sabey
T5 Datacenters
QTS Realty Trust
Cyrus One
Stream Data Center
Raging Wire
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Dallas
Los Angeles
New York/New Jersey
Northern Virginia
Phoenix
San Francisco/Silicon Valley
Seattle
Houston
Philadelphia
Miami
Toronto
Denver
Baltimore
San Diego
Charlotte
Cincinnati
Las Vegas
Minneapolis
The data center market is seeing very competitive pricing due to the
large number of options available to tenants in todays market. With the
exception of Houston and Toronto, most of the data center markets
are tenant-favorable and will remain so through late 2015. While
leasing activity has been strong, third-party providers have been
aggressive with new development and construction largely surpassing
demand over the past three years. As a result, there has been a
softening in rates in the past 12 to 18 months. Sublease space in
markets such as Silicon Valley and Northern Virginia added additional
supply to the market as well and further reduced leverage for some
providers. Subleasing data center space can be difficult due to a short
term remaining on leases, the need for the subtenant to have a tri-party
agreement with the landlord and no visibility of extension rights.
Therefore, while sublease space does directly compete with direct stock
it does so to a lesser degree than seen in the traditional office real
estate market.
Today, the focus of providers is leasing up existing inventory and
improving return on invested capital (ROIC). Looking forward, new
inventory will be delivered just-in-time where a shell is ready to
go but not built out until a lease is in place. Providers will also be
seeking to maintain low cost-to-build with the largest data center
companies averaging $7 million or less per megawatt on a fully
developed mega site.
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Chicago
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Dallas-Fort Worth
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Houston
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Los Angeles
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Northern NJ
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Northern Virginia
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Phoenix
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Seattle-Portland
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Silicon Valley
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Once the construction pipeline is absorbed, rental rates will firm quickly
and companies will have less negotiating room with providers. There
is a lot of organic growth in the data center market since tenants
typically need more power and space as technology evolves.
This is fueling the expansion of existing leases. Markets with a high
concentration of tenants in energy, healthcare, finance, technology and
JLL | North America | Data Center Outlook | 2014
INDUSTRY
TECHNOLOGY
2014:
By 2016:
50%
74% of adults
2014:
In 2014:
U.S. retail
e-commerce
sales increased
15.7%
Financial firms
account for
16%
of data center revenue
CORPORATE
51%
3x
7.7 Zb
By 2018: Global
market for
cloud equipment
will reach
$79.1B
moving away
Companies are
from internal IT management
$5.9M
for data
breeches
Atlanta
Supply
Demand
Rental rates
for Providers
Several significant investment opportunities on the market including
E*Trades data center and GEs data center in Alpharetta.
Several providers considering new builds of wholesale and retail space,
some looking for anchor tenants to kick off a new building including QTS,
Bytegrid, Equinix, Telx, Peer1 and Digital Realty Trust .
Q3 14
Q4 14
8.0
6.0
6.2
Q2 15
Q3 15
5.5
4.85
4.8
4.7
2011
2012
2013
2014
4.0
2.0
0.0
2010
30.0%
Q1 15
Outlook
for Users
30.0%
Financial&
Banking
Financial
Services
Healthcare
Telecom
15.0%
25.0%
Technology
Technology Company
QTS
~8 MW
Software Company
QTS
1 MW
Chicago
Demand
Rental rates
10.0%
15.0%
10.0%
15.0%
40.0%
10.0%
Telecom
Outlook
for Users
Well funded / sophisticated operators competing hard to fill
new deliveries.
Aggressive pricing and ramp structures continue in 2015.
Pricing on leases < 250 kW seeing historic low rents under $180 / kW.
for Providers
Providers proactively courting tenants to anchor new developments.
Spec suites will continue to be the best opportunity for success.
Aggressive ramps and flexibility in leases can be expected in buildings
with high vacancy rates.
Rents will stay low and decrease in 2015 as new developments deliver.
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Supply
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Abbvie
CenturyLink
2 MW
NextWave
Latisys
300 kW
SingleHop
DLR Franklin Park
2 MW
Demand
Rental rates
25.0%
35.0%
5.0%
5.0%
10.0%
20.0%
Outlook
for Users
Small window in 2014 with deficit in supply.
Aggressive pricing and ramp structures continue in 2014.
Power costs might increase slightly at the end of 2014.
for Providers
Providers racing to get inventory to market.
Users will expect rent ramps to offset consolidation costs.
Price compression will be less than 5.0 percent in 2014 (annual average
is 7.0 percent).
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Cost per kW
Supply
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
7.2
2010
7.0
2011
6.0
6.0
2012
2013
5.8
2014
Houston
Supply
Demand
Rental rates
Supply has been absorbed (~8 MW) at a stable rate, much of which is
explosive growth of HPC (high performance computing) environments.
New supply is being built-out with CyrusOne delivering 44,000 square
feet with runway for significantly more space. Data Foundry will bring
online a 250,000-square-foot building in 2015 with up to 50 MWs of
future capacity available.
Demand is coming from all industries due to the significant population
and job growth in the Houston market. The largest demand is still
coming from the oil and gas sector as technology is critical to drilling
and exploration efforts. Demand is also coming from healthcare and
financial services industries. This demand is driving existing Houston
data center providers and new data entrants to consider Houston for
additional expansion.
As HPC becomes more important to the exploration of oil and gas,
companies are outsourcing more of this technology to colocation
operators that can handle the high density computing environments
needed to run seismic data.
User demand by industry
for Providers
Providers racing to get inventory to market.
Users will expect rent ramps to offset migration costs.
Price compression will be more than 5.0 percent in 2015.
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Tenant-favorable market
Neutral market
Landlord-favorable market
8.1
8.0
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.6
2011
2012
2013
2014
6.0
5.0
5.0%
Telecom
20.0%
45.0%
20.0%
Outlook
for Users
Cost per kW
2010
5.0% 5.0%
Insurance
CyrusOne
Web Hosting Industry
1.5 MW
CyrusOne
Oil & Gas Industry
900 kW
Stream
Oil & Gas Industry
1.3 MW
10
Los Angeles
Supply
Demand
Rental rates
Net absorption:
5.0 M 7.0 M MW
Outlook
for Users
for Providers
Providers continue to compete for tenants.
Aggressive pricing structures exist due to lack of demand.
Average deals are 25-50 KW.
Q3 14
15.0
13.0
11.0
9.0
7.0
5.0
Technology
25.0%
35.0%
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Tenant-favorable market
Neutral market
Landlord-favorable market
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
5.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Telecom
Q4 14
20.0%
LAX Airport
T5
1 MW
SpaceX
Internap
500 kW
T5
Anonymous enterprise
2 MW
11
Minneapolis/St. Paul
Supply
Demand
Rental rates
Outlook
for Users
for Providers
New entrants to market will taper as product comes online.
Users will expect tax incentives and a variety of options.
Pricing will compress as more product hits market.
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Tenant-favorable market
Neutral market
Landlord-favorable market
Demand is increasing now that there are numerous options for both
retail and wholesale colocation within the Twin Cities marketplace. Prior
to this year, colocation options for requirements over 250 kW were
extremely limited.
15.0
14.8
14.8
14.8
14.8
15.3
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
10.0
5.0
Technology
6.0%
31.0%
Telecom
37.0%
Manufacturing
10.0%
3.0% 13.0%
Healthcare
Insurance
FICO
CenturyLink
300 kW
Ucare
Unisys
150 kW
Essentia Health
Involta
400 MW
12
Demand
Rental rates
Outlook
for Users
Supply is outpacing demand.
Historical low rates quoted.
Continued downward pressure on cost and risk.
for Providers
Increased competition by new providers.
Supply at an all-time high.
Just takes a few deals to level market.
Occupiers looking for low cost alternatives for less critical data.
Q3 14
Cost per kW
11.0
10
Q2 15
Q3 15
9.0
8.5
8.5
9.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
5
0
2010
7.0% 8.0%
3.0%
Q1 15
Q4 14
Technology
2014 significant data center transactions
Banking &
Financial Services
Media &
Entertainment
Healthcare
84.0%
Bitcoin Company
IO
2.5 MW
Financial Services
Sentinel Data Center
1.5 MW
Financial Services
Digital Realty
3 MW
13
Northern Virginia
Supply
Demand
Rental rates
Outlook
for Users
Market leader for cloud computing with best in class latency.
Historic pricing and concessions continue well into 2015.
Power costs remain steady and predictable.
Limited powered shell building options.
Sublease space adds pressure for third-party providers with more than
30 MWs of inventory.
for Providers
11.0%
12.0%
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
6.0
5.8
6.0
6.1
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Healthcare
53.0%
15.0%
1.0%
2.0%
5.0%
Insurance
Retail & E-commerce
Technology &
Telecom
GoDaddy
DFT ACC7
2.8 MW
PNC.
QTS
4 MW
Level3
Powered Shell Purchase
50,000 s.f.
14
Phoenix
Supply
Demand
Rental rates
Supply continues to see significant growth as a majority of West Coastbased companies consider metropolitan Phoenix valley as one of the
top five markets for their data center needs. Recent supply in the valley
has been absorbed quickly by telecom and technology companies and
this has put pressure on providers to build new colocation facilities.
National providers such as QTS, Ascent and Switch are strongly
considering new entry into the Phoenix market.
Demand has been modest during the first half of 2014, following strong
activity in 2013. Market trends indicate price stabilization on lease and
purchase rates for wholesale colocation facilities. Technology
companies in the metropolitan Phoenix valley are experiencing global
and local growth and this fuels organic demand. Tenants continue to
seek maximum flexibility in colocation facilities as enterprises try to
avoid overcommitting power.
Power costs remain an intriguing factor to influence out-of-state
enterprises to relocate to Arizona. Longer-term contracts between
utility companies and colocation providers is an upward trend in the
local market.
User demand by industry
10.0%
Deficit in supply until CyrusOne delivers new facility in the fourth quarter.
Aggressive pricing and ramp structures will tighten up.
Continued attraction to the market due to AZ Data Center Tax Exemption.
for Providers
Race to deliver new inventory to the market (CyrusOne, PhoenixNAP).
Users will expect rent ramps to offset consolidation costs.
Price increase will include additional services going into 2015.
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.0
Retail & E-commerce
20.0%
15.0%
20.0%
15.0%
Outlook
for Users
Cost per kW
Technology
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20.0%
Insurance
Bitcoin Company
CyrusOne
8 MW
CenturyLink
IO
9 MW
15
Seattle-Portland
Supply
Demand
Rental rates
Outlook
for Users
8% 2%
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
6.0
5.5
5.0
Technology
5%
Telecom
45%
20%
for Providers
Cost per kW
20%
Insurance
Group Health
Sabey
300 kW
Comcast
T5
6-9 MW
EdgeConnex
RREEF
4 MW
16
Silicon Valley
Supply
Demand
Rental rates
Outlook
for Users
Supply will be constrained by years end and until Dupont Fabros and
Coresite bring additional capacity online.
Pricing has stabilized and is beginning to trend upwards
Larger contiguous space will be difficult to obtain in the Silicon Valley
for Providers
Providers like Coresite, Vantage and Dupont Fabros will have an
opportunity to take up marketshare with new construction projects
Users will expect rent ramps to offset consolidation costs
Price increase will drive customers to other states.
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.0
10.0%
2010
20.0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
15.0%
Financial Services
20.0%
15.0%
Telecom
Healthcare
20.0%
Insurance
Microsoft
Dupont Fabros
6 MW
Alibaba
Coresite
3 MW
Navisite
.
Digital Realty
3.6 MW
17
Demand
Rental rates
Net absorption: 5 MW
Outlook
Supply both across Canada and within the Toronto and Southern
Ontario area has historically been limited. Recent successful data
center developments have helped amplify interest from both
international and domestic data center operators.
for Users
8.0%
Q3 14
Healthcare
11.0%
45.0%
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Tenant-favorable market
Neutral market
Landlord-favorable market
8.9
7.5
6.0
2010
2.0%
12.0%
for Providers
Cost per kW
7.9
6.6
2011
2012
2013
2014
Insurance
Telecom
Retail & E-commerce
22.0%
Manufacturing
Soft Layer
Digital Realty
2.5 MW
Technology Firm
Cologix
300 kW
18
Contacts
Houston
Bo Bond
+1 214 438 6238
bo.bond@am.jll.com
Ali Greenwood
+1 214 438 6237
ali.greenwood@am.jll.com
Curt Holcomb
+1 214 438 6240
curt.holcomb@am.jll.com
Los Angeles
Darren Eades
+1 213 239 6061
darren.eades@am.jll.com
Jordan Gaffney
+1 213 239 6041
jordan.gaffney@am.jll.com
Northern New Jersey
Jon Meisel
+1 973 404 1475
jonathan.meisel@am.jll.com
Jeff Groh
+1 703 485 8833
jeff.groh@am.jll.com
Minneapolis/St. Paul
Brett Severson
+1 612 217 5143
brett.severson@am.jll.com
Brian Ginkel
+1 612 217 5127
brian.ginkel@am.jll.com
Phoenix
Mark Bauer
+1 602 282 6259
mark.bauer@am.jll.com
Mark Stratman Jr
+1 602 282 6260
mark.stratmanjr@am.jll.com
Greater Toronto Area
Stuart Cox
+1 416 525 4132
stuart.cox@am.jll.com
Sumner Putnam
+1 973 404 1513
sumner.putnam@am.jll.com
Seattle-Portland
Conan Lee
+1 206 607 1723
conan.lee@am.jll.com
Thomas Reilly
+1 973 404 1476
thomas.reilly@am.jll.com
Danny Jackson
+1 206 607 1798
danny.jackson@am.jll.com
Northern Virginia
Allen Tucker
+1 703 891 8396
allen.tucker@am.jll.com
Silicon Valley
Chris Sumter
+1 650 354 3346
chris.sumter@am.jll.com
19
About JLL
JLL (NYSE:JLL) is a professional services and investment management firm offering specialized real estate services to clients seeking increased
value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. With annual revenue of $4.0 billion, JLL operates in 70 countries from more than 1,000
locations worldwide. On behalf of its clients, the firm provides management and real estate outsourcing services to a property portfolio of 3.0 billion
square feet. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management, has $47.6 billion of real estate assets under management. For
further information, visit www.jll.com.