DOSSIER 5

The Industrial shocks of globalization

For the FMI: the growth of global activity over the course of the last five years is
essentially the fact of emerging countries and developing countries.
China: of global growth
Brasil, China, India, and Russia: global growth
the entirety of the emerging countries & developing countries: ,
In developed nations, industry seems to be still at the center of the torment of
globalization.
The primordial question:
What is the industrial future for developed countries?
Foreign investments have been:
globally associated with the disindustrialization of developed countries
associated with the unemployment in the national industries which are strongly
competed with by the importations of the new emerging countries.
foreign investors also do actions that include:
fusions and hostile buyouts
making a national industry pass into foreing control, causing a return to
protectionist policies vis-a-vis the IDEs
temptations of withdrawal:
the IDEs abroad risk provoking unemployment in the country of
origin
the IDEs coming from the abroad risk looking the national
character of local enterprises.

International direct investments and multinational firms

For many, globalization is primarily the arrival of the great multi-national firms:
global enterprises who direct a world-wide network of affiliates
subsidiaries (sous-traitants):
sell around the world, at the same moment, the same product:
globalization of possibilities of production linked with globalization
of the market.
notion of a village planet is still not reality, (distance)
Still, progressive openings of states to commerce and to international
investments have permitted important development (celui-ci).
During 90's and 00's, the states had policies that favorable IDEs.

A. Globalization and IDE's

An important growth of IDE's.

IDE's :
long-term relationship reflecting a control of an enterprise residing in a
country of origin on another enterprise situated in a country of welcome;
At least 10% to distinguish from movements (capitaux portefueille) .
Grew rapidly in the 90s
a new phase of globalization with two peeks (2000, 2006-7)
GRAPHIC 3.3: Evolution of entering flows of IDEs 1980-2007
Peeks correspond to waves of international fusion acquisitions which
have engendered an acceleration of IDE's.
Moreover, given the fact that enterprises profits have been high, the
benefits reinvested on location have become an important component of
the entering flows of IDE's
(CNUCED),in 2006,
30% of the total of global entering IDE's
50% (dans les seuls pays en developpement)
International Fusions-acquisition and Service IDE's

In developed countries, fusions-acquisitions (F&A) are more than half of the IDEs.
Among the 10 largest F&As
in the 2000s: one can notice the wave of F&A
in the enterprises of TIC (the dot-com boom)
between 2004 and 2006 a second wave
the banking and telecommunications sector.

Graphic 3.2 Trans-border fusions-acquisitions

For the IDEs and in sectorial terms:
the growing ampler taking for over 20 years by the service sector
The service sector captures more than 60% of the global IDEs
Similarly, more than 50% of the IDES in the developing countries
occur in the service sector.
by consequence, the lowering of the manufacturing and primary sectors.
only 10% of IDEs are in the primary sector henceforth.
the manufacturing industry is only 30% (41% in 1990.+
IDES and other large international variables

Flows of IDE's have been largely increased (demultiplies.)

between 1990 and 2006, the global PIB has been multipled by 2.2 and the
exportation by 3.2, the IDE flows have been multiplied by 6.4.

TABLEAU 3.1 Indicators of the IDEs 1982-2006

Recent strong evolutions make a ratio appear of IDE flows to investment interior to the
country (raw formation of fixed capital)

passed from 2% in the 70's to 14% in the 2000's

thus the growing openness linked to globalization.

Geographic Distribution of the IDEs

United States
the primary investing country also the primary land of welcome for IDEs.
However, part in total share of IDEs abroad falls continuously.
37.7 % in 1980; no more than 19% in 2005.
The UK, Germany, and France remain in the lead group.
The concentration of investing countries, although diminishing, remains strong:
in 1980, the 15 primary investors held 96% of IDEs; in 2005, they had 86%.
Tableau 3.2Primary countries of origin of IDE's stocks world-wide 1980 to 2005.

Long term tendency of entering flows of IDE's indicates that the part belonging to
developing countries is growing.
Observing the entering IDE's of 70-72 and 2004-2006, the strong evolutions
reside in:
lowering of developed countries influence in entering IDE's: (78% to 66%)
much larger place for China/emerging Asia(both 4.5% to 12%)
New European member states (NEM10) (0 to 3.6%)

TABLE 3.3- Entering IDE flows 1970-72 and 2004-2006 (in %)

countries which have the most cumulative IDE flows over 10 years:
France: most elevated net sale of exiting IDEs
followed by the UK and Japan.
China has the most elevated level of net sales of entering investments,
followed by, to a lesser extent, the US and Mexico.
Germany has entering and exiting flows that are of a comparable size
thus a net sale that is barely elevated.

IDE Towards Developing Countries:

The flow of IDE towards developing countries grew in a rapid fashion during the 00s.
Emerging Asia itself counts for of IDEs towards these developing countries.
Entering flows of IDEs are up to 3% of PIB of these countries from .25% in early 90s
Compared to the other financial flows towards developing countries, these IDE
flows represents the largest part
since the middle of the 90s
today, they represent more than 50% of it.
Graphic 3.3-- Flow of net financial resources towards the developing countries, by
trype of flow 1990-2006 (billions of dollars)
(2004-6) China welcomed of the entering ID in the developing countries
primary develoiping country of welcome and 2nd/ 3rd in absolute terms behind

US.
These IDEs play a key role in the the transformation of the Chinese economy and the
evolution of its exports.
Reform of 1979: the China developed zones of defiscalized economic expansion,
capable of attracting important IDEs that came from other Asian countries:
(Taiwan, Hong Kong)
Financial funds as International Investors:

placement funds and other mutual investment funds engage heavily in transborder
fusion-acquisitions.
In 2006: performed 18% of global F&As (only 4% in 2000)
These funds collect funds from the public and their enterprise, buy-out
companies listed on the principal global stock exchanges.
In 2006, the two greatest acquisitions were
Philips semi-conductor (Pays-Bas)
Atlanta Pharma (Allemagne)
Fears:
The supportability of such important IDEs by investment funds more
accustomed to placements in high risk stocks and elevated returns in a logic of
short term stock-portfolio placements.
Vague concerns of dismantling of bought-out (rachat) enterprises for short term
profitability.

B. MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES
Definition:
For the UN, an multinational Enterprise is comprised of:
a mother house (maison mere)
exercises control on the stocks of the invested foreign enterprises, by
possessing at least a control permiting 10% of the stocks of the affiliate
filiates abroad.
The possibility of controlling or orienting the productive strategies of one or
several affiliates is primordial.
A production abroad (and not just a distribution )
Based on this criteria:
In 2006, UN tallied 78,000 multinational enterprises and 780,00 foreign afilliates.
In 1992, it tallied 35000 with 150000 affiliates abroad.
The number of multinational has thus multiplied: by 2 in 15 years; 10 in 30 years.
Of these 78000 multinatonals,
58000 originate in a developed country
Still, these statistics are unable to identify every multinational enterprise.
The multinational enterprises are at the origin of nearly of global commerce;
of this commerce done at the center of their network to form an international
commerce called intrafirm commerce.

Example for the foreign affiliates of the great multinational firms located
in France, on average:
their intrafirm importations represent 70% of their total
importations (1/4 of intermediary goods and financial goods);
concerning their exportations, they comprise 60% of initration
flom (40% of intermediary goods and 60% of financial goods).
Similarly, the American multinationals in 2004 were responsible for 53%
of United States exports of which nearly 40% was intra-firm commerce.

Multinational or Global enterprises?

Numerous debates are still ongoing to know if there are thresholds which permit the
specific characterisation of a multinational or even global enterprise.
Rugman considers that the majority of the current multinational enterprises are
in fact only regional.
looks at the the distribution of sales of the triad (Asia, America, Europe).
An enterprise is global if:
it carries out at least 20% of its sales in each of these 3 regions
not more than 50% in its region of origin.
In 2001, of the 380 largest enterprises counted by Fortune:
only 9 are global, like IBM, or LVMH; being less than 2.5%.
84% are regional with less than half of sale in the two other
regions
6.5 % would be bi-regional.
However, the criteria of sales abroad cant ecompass all of the multinational strategy
For example, LVMH:
hardly manufactures abroad (of some 15 worskhops, only two are abroad
but it implants thousands of stores under its exclusive brand in all the
countries of the tirade.
The 100 Largest Multinationals:
The UN analyzes 100 largest multinational firms.
In 2005, these 100 accounted for
10% foreign stocks
17% sales
13% global employment
The ten primary multinationals of this classification represent 36% of the
foreign stocks of the 100% primary multi. firms.
Table 3.4 10 primary multinational enterprises in 2005 (in millions of dollars and number
of employees)

The100 primary multinationals show grand disparity of enterprises in terms of size.

58 belong to six sectors:
automobile, petrol, electric and electronic equipment, pharmaceutical

products, telecommunications, and the water, gas, and electric sector.

84% of the enterprises come from the developed countries;
24% among them come from the United States (30% in the 80s).
5 grand countries have more than 72% of the concentration of these 100
enterprises:
US, UK, France, Germany, and Japan.
However, this is more diversified that in could have been in the 80s.

Indicators of Multinationalism:
The CNUCED calculates a degree of multinationalism.
Composite indicator which takes the average of three ratios:
1. assets abroad over total assets
2. sales abroad over total sales
3. employment abroad over total employment
For the 100 primary multinational enterprises, the average global degree of
multinationalisation is around 54%,
therefore, more than half of grand multinationals activities are done
abroad.
However a great amplitude/range in this indicator:
certain of the 100 have a ratio superior to 80% (Honda or Nestle)
others inferior to 30% (Hitachi or Telecom Italia.)
this indicator has grown more than 25% in the last decade.
Table 3.5 Degree of Multinationalisation of the 100 primary multinational enterprises 1990
and 2005 (in %)

The degree of internationalisation of affiliates,

measures the part of the affiliates abroad in relation to the number of total
affiliates of each enterprise.
The average degree for 2004 was 69%.
Finally, the degree of geographic dispersion of the affiliates
introduces the number of countries in which the studied enterprise has affiliates
in relation to the total number of potential countries of welcome.
The average degree is 39% countries of welcome, but this variable has a large
standard deviation.
(Deutsche Post in more than 103 countries, Royal Dutch Shell is in 96)
Foreign investments and localisation of multinational enterprises remain rather
concentrated in their zone of origin.
Factors of interior agglomeration of the country of welcome also play significantly
in their choice of localisation.

The Multinationals of the South

With a certain number of evaluation problems (notably the flows from Hong Kong
towards continental china and the registering of social seats of grand enterprises of

emerging countries in the developed countries like Mittal in the Netherlands),

FMI & CNUCED-around 17% of the total of global out-going IDEs
come from emerging countries
go in a south-south trajectory if not South-North.
In the 100 primary enterprises,
the weight of the multinationals from developing countries grows progressively.
From 1 enterprise (1999) to 5 in (2004) to 7 (2005.)
In the 500 primary multinationals of Fortune: from 26 (1988) to 61 (2005).
Several are spectacular
example: Gazprom passed up Microsoft in 2006 and became the
third global enterprise in terms of business numbers.
The China Mobile has capitalization which exceeds Vodaphones.
A small number of the great fusions-aquisions of enterprises of the emerging countries
have attracted attention in the course of the last years:
Mittal Steel Group: the largest F&A in 2006 by acquiring Acelor for 32 billion
dollars.
Year 2006 :record-setting number of fusions-acquisitions by developing countries.
However, total of the foreign assets of the 100 primary multinationals of
emerging countries remains inferior to, in 2004, the foreign assets of the #1
global multinational, General Electric.
These last years, the financing of the enterprises in developing countries has also taken
on a character that is very multinational.
Their financial possessions:
mixture of local and international funds.
The new collection of capital comes from the international capital markets and
continues to grow.
The 20 countries classified by the Banque Mondiale as countries with
intermediary revenue,
(Brasil, China, India, Mexico, Russia) are the principal beneficiaries of
these new capitals for their enterprises.
these 5 countries represent
88% of this capitalisation among developing countries
10% of the entirety of global capitalization.

Determinants of Multinationalizaiton:
Recent studies show that the geographic localization of multinationals are very marked
by
agglomration
enterprises co-localize themselves in order to profit from positive
externalities (common local labor market, market of capital goods, public
infrastructures, technological consequences, information gain, etc.)
proximity
multinationals are often constrained by a distance effects;

they tend to localized themselves primarily near their country of origin

(Ex: french multinationals in Europe.)
Multinationalisation of enterprises is based on several great principles of behavior.
1). (market seeking)
the research of new markets in the context of the growth of enterprises
2). (cost-seeking)
2) the research of a decrease in the costs of factors of production, labor,
capital, land, technology, in the context of international competition
3). (efficiency seeking).
the search for new market positions in the context of oligiopolistic
competition, the research of economies of scale, and the dynamic of its
competitive advantages
Three motifs of the extension of multinationals activity:
The offer of factors,
the demand for products,
market structure
The opening of new markets and the multiplication of competitors can
only develop their activities.

DELOCALISATION and DISINDUSTRIALIZATION

A. Delocalisation of Industrial Activities:
Definition of Delocalisation:
Strict sense of delocalizatiom:
a displacement of an activity from one place towards another.
(Example closing in France and simultaneous identical opening China.)
Delocalisation can be infra or international.
In a very large definition
all importation of goods & services having national substitutes
comes back to a desire to qualify as suspect all importation
for fear that one could make the product or one of its
substitutes on the national territory
Advocates a return to mercantilism:
export but definitely NOT import!
TYPE OF DELOCALIZATION
off shore production:
part of the production that is done abroad by multinationals
This foreign production (fabrication) can be done by:
affiliates (intrafirm production, or international in-sourcing),
by international subcontracting, (international outsourcing).
by externalization of production:
of certain parts
or components

or product assembling
These behaviors are already old
and developed with new industrialized countries in the 70s, by the
intermediary of what on calls the OEM (original equipment
manufacturing).
These geographic zones with the methods of sub-contracting
have strongly grown
European member states, the other countries of Eastern
Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and all
of emerging Asia.
The international decomposition of productive processes has strongly developed
in recent years.
For example: the importations of the OCDE of parts and components
coming from non-OCDE countries have gone from 18% to 33% of the
total of this type of importations by developed countries.

Graphic 3.4--Importations of the countries of the OCDE of parts and components coming
from non-OCDE countries.

The possibility of multinationals cutting up their chain of adding value into a large
number of complimentary but independent activities in their production process is
more and more strong.
This phenomenon has given birth to:
the development of network enterprises
engendered the growth of the trade of decomposed products.
It is coupled with:
the attractive costs of labor in Asia,
the new markets of these emerging countries,
the collapse of costs of logistics and communications,

The Fear of Delocalization:

The fear of globalization job-loss and exercising pressures to lower salaries is not new.
However, recent evolutions seem to have aggravated the worries.
The delocalization\of jobs in tinformation technologies and services to
enterprises has brought about the consideration that a large proportion of
high-salary workers could be in direct competition with certain workers of
low salary-countries.
This problem is raised in numerous countries.
US following the entry of Mexico into the ALENA in 1994,
Also occurred in Germany, the UK, Japan, Belgium.
More recently, Korea and other Asian countries as well as Tunisia
due to international investments departing towards

China/Romania.
In the 2000s, resurgence in France, Germany, and in the US in 2004.
Due to the parallel degradation of jobs and the commercial(trade)
balance, putting elocalization at the fore-font of the news.
anxiety comes also from the idea that all type of jobs, even in the
tertiary and qualified jobs...seem suddenly to be threatened by
Chinese or Indian competition.
All the same the US is still the primary country of welcome for the IDEs
France attracted in 2002 the same amount of IDE flows as China,
55 billion dollars.
The trade deficit of France in relation to Emerging Asia was
equivalent to the trade surplus of France in relation to England
(9.6 billion euros in 2002)!

Delocalization and Jobs

The anxieties about employment are refuted by facts and analysis.

Countries openness to exchanges and to international investments is not
translated into a lowering of the employment levels.
Rowthorn and Ramaswamy: the North-South commerce would explain only 20% of the
diminution of the industrial jobs in the developed countries between 1970-1994.
this is a much wider field than a single delocalisation,
Update for 1970-2002 comes to around 15% on average for the industrial
countries
notably loss of 250,000 industrial jobs in the case of France.
German loss of jobs to localizations towards new OCDE member countries has
been estimated at 90,000 jobs (1990 to 2001)
being .3% of total employment.
Taking into acocount the permanent mouvements on the lavor market,
this number of 90,000 is equal to the number of jobs created or destroyed
in Germany in a single week!
The results for French industry indicate that around 95,000 industrial jobs will have been
canceled in France and delocalized abroad between 1995 and 2001,
an average of 13,500 per year.
Comparaison, the annual raw elimination of jobs in the industry is 500,000.
.35% of industrial jobs have thus delocalized each year between 1995 and 2001,
being a little more than 1 job in 300.
Among the delocalized jobs, a little less than half of them go to emerging countries.
These countries represent around 6,500 jobs delocalized per year,
.17% of industrial employment outside of energy,
or still 6% of the strong decreases in numbers.
Around 1 industrial closure in 28 corresponds to a delocalization towards a
country with a lower salary.

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Developed countries represent in fact the majority of the destinations of

delocalization.
Destinations are the border countries and United States.
These delocalizations corresponded in large part to
a logic of restructuring
of recentration of groupes,
INSTEAD OF a research for lower costs of production.
The countries with low salaries represent a little
less than half of the destinations of delocalization.
Among these countries:
China would be the principal destination, far
ahead Eastern Europe, North Africa, South
America, and the other countries of Asia.

IDE and EXPORTATIONS:

Lipsey and Wise instantaneous moment study for 1970:

the impact of foreign production of American affiliates on the exportation of the
US,
Results put forth a complementarity of investments/exportations.
The general positive effect is not however, identical from one sector to
another.

Chedor and Mucchielli have analyzed France more systematically:

studied performances in exportation according to the destination of the
exchanges
with the individual date of enterprises
distinguishing the french enterprises that are
directly implanted
non implanted,
done to test the influence that presence in welcoming territory can
have on the enterprises performances in exportation via affiliates.
By distinguishing 7 geographic zones possible for implantation, three
situations can present themselves among the french enterprises:
1. those french enterprise present in a considered zone of
implantation and exchange (type A enterprises),
2.those which are absent from this zone but implanted in other
zones (type B enterprises),
3. and finally the enterprises without implantation abroad(type C)

The results indicate that the rates of exportation by zone are more elevated by the
enterprises which are already implanted (have affiliates) in the zone considered.
The implantation abroad appears then to be largely complementary to
exportation,

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An enterprise which implants itself abroad would be able to by this fact have
greater and more easier opportunities to continue to penetrate this same market
on the complementary products in terms of :
product offers gammes or
components.

B. The Disindustrialization
The decline of Jobs in the Industry:
The delocalization, in fact, participates in the disindustrialization of the developed
countries.
Vaster phenomenon
All developed countries experience industrial employment (lemploi industriel)
decline in favor of the employment in services.
Since the 60s, services have inexorably out-stepped industry,
(in France, since the 50s).
In 2005, the EU-27 had no more than 17.1% of its employment in the
manufacturing industry,
France 15.2%,
Germany 19.6%,
UK 12. %

In France, this tendency is old;

since 1975, the part of industrial employment in total employment has lowered.
The industrial part still represented around 45% of the total in 1975
continues to decrease
The lowering become stronger as the sectors become importers
and consumers of low-qualifed labor.

Table 3.7 --Evolution of the different salaried worker numbers in France in the entirety of
sectors outside agriculture (2001-2007).

Direct industrial employment lowers in all the large sectors, except in equipment goods.
The largest market lowering is that of the automobile industries.
Although the numbers there now maintain an elevated and stable level
since the beginning of the decade, they began to diminish in 2005.
For the large majority of consumption goods, submitted to a strong
foreign competition, production is going to continue to decline;
this it the case notably in clothing and textiles, sectors where the
enterprises have an accrued recourse to foreign out-sourcing.
Durable goods (furniture) and varied products (tows, sport articles)
lose parts of the markets do to the foreign competition.
As for the mass-market digital products (telephone, etc) they are
now nearly all imported.

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In the automobile sector, this was accentuated in 2006 when the

automobile production of french constructors abroad passed for
the first time production that was carried out on french soil.

Graphic 3.7 -- People working in the textile industry and the evolution of automobile
production in France

Between 2001 and 2007

the french economy destroyed 511,000 jobs in industry.
But in this same time created 957,000 jobs in services
A net creation of 402,000 jobs
+ 277,000 created during construction.
The service sector represents now 67.8 % of the total of employed labor in the
sectors outside of agriculture.
Thus total employment 2001- 2007 grew 4.4%; industry has lowered 14.4%.
Inexorably France, like all developed countries, is becoming a country of
service sector jobs.

Numerous studies on the causes of disindustrialization in developed countries.

Internal factors appear as the key explicative elements of this evolution, namely:
1. technological progress.
2. elevation of productivity in the manufacturing sector
3. slidings in demand of internal consummation towards services
4. demographic evolution as well as the increasing roll of service in
manufacturing production itself.
The commerce with emerging countries seems to be only marginal in these
macroeconomic evolutions.

C. The Delocalization of Services: The New Wave

February 3, 2003 Bussiness Week (Is Your Job Next?),
spotlight on the new wave of delocalizations, this time in the service sector.
The Rise in Implantations Abroad of the Service Sector

The progress of information and communication technologies (NTIC)

has resolved the technical problems of
non-transportability
non-stocked of data
and other services
has rendered possible the sectioning of service activities
have reinforced their commercialization by creating new type of exchangeable

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services.
A large number of service activities can now be done independent of their
geographic localization.
their production and their servicing (prestation) no longer have
occur at the same place.
Formerly protected office jobs are henceforth exposed to
international competition.
The existing savoir-faire in numerous services can be codified, standardised, digitalized
be it for:
simple, low-qualification jobs
like the collection of data, the telephone call centers,
more qualifed actions
the development of programs, medical diagnostics starting from
radiography, industrial drawing, architectural conception work.
The production of these service can then be fragmented and localized anywhere:
Such a fragmentation can even be much more developed than that of
industrial products because its simply offices with minimum of material
that are moved, not factories.

India, land of welcome for delocalized services

The growth of delocalization of the service industry is linked to the opening and
development of the services sector in India
This country responds perfectly to the large quantity needs for a relatively
educated labor force.
The first transplantation of service into India was done by American Express in 1993.
These enterprises developed rapidly;
Example: Dell
installed its first call center in 2001
2005 nearly 10,000 local workers divided among numerous
centers.
Also attracted consulting and study enterprises (MacKinser, Gartner
Grou)
service implantation in India went from a risky and exotic adventure to the
routine.
These implantations were also done in the activities of Research and Development.
Example: General Electric
employed more than 2000 scientifiques and ingenieurs in Bangalore in
order to carry out research in multiple domains ranging
laboratories are also an example of the R&D carried out in Bangalore.
master or doctorat level in science
However, implantations of service sector platforms in the emerging countries remains
entirely to the large/great enterprises.
Olsen(2006) survey of 1,100 bosses of enterprises of just an average size
5% of them wanted to delocalize the service jobs that used NTIC abroad

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73% have no intention of engaging in a transplantation to abroad.

The analysis indicates also that less than 20% of American enterprises
have a strategy in terms of international production
this rate climbs to 95% for the enterprises which are classified in
the 1,000 primary enterprises in the list of Fortune magazine.

The statistic results on the delocalization of services

The cost/benefit calculation of local labor was one of the motivations for Indian
installation
At the time of the Internet bubble (bulle), end of the 1990s, large salary
differences
an American accountant
at one of the great American enterprises,
less than three years of experience,
could earn between 39,000 and 50,00 dollars per year.
In India
junior employe,
the average salary was 2,400 per year
for an engineer
less than 7,500 dollars.
Here also, it is the total cost and productivity that should be rather taken into account.
Certain analyses put forth evidence of a gain of around 40 (?)
Others relate situations that are less attractive
even negative.
Elements besides the costs are also advanced:
like research of new markets and research of qualified laborers.
Studies have been done to know the number of potential delocalizable jobs in the
service sector.
van Welsum and Vickery: calculated the portion of people executing the tasks
which can be done anywhere:
founding their work on the data of employment by profession and by
sector.
This analysis, founded on data by professions for several countries of the
lOCDE, makes one think that a proportion of around 20% of the total
employment of services is delocalizable. (Ian note: b/c of certain nontransferable factors.

Importations and Exportations of Services.

Exchanges Data shows:

many of the countries who benefit from implantations in the service sector have
known a rapid development of their exportations of services to enterprises and
informatic services.

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However, many among them have also recorded a rapid growth in the
importation of these services in major part coming form the countries of the
OCDE.
These results leave one to think that, in the countries of the OCDE, the
delocalization of services linked to the NTIC (such as that which is reflected in
the exchanges and investments) have not yet brought about a relative decline:
from the segment of jobs that reoccur there
from the part of the tributaries that do not have a fixed location.
The positive advantages of delocation of services are superior to the costs,
even if adjustment process can bring up difficulties in the short term.

In a more general fashion:

the second half of the 90s has been, in particular for the US, a period of:
economic growth
strong growth in productivity,
THUS widening thus the gap with the other European nations
This growth is because of the application of the NTICs in the
economy.
Mann) 2003: the considerable reduction of the price of products in
the service sector is a key element of the technological changes
In this context, the globalization of production of these
NTIC products and services has play also a role.
Example: Mann estimates that between 1995 and
2002, globalization and fragmentation of the
production of these products and services has
brought about the lowering of prices from 10
to 30% of these productions
contributed to the growth of productivity by
.3 points per year,
additional of $230 billion of PIB.

3. THE INDUSTRIAL FUTURE OF EUROPE

The current evolutions of globalization have renewed reflections about the industrial and
productive future of developed countries and notably that of Europe.
Will there be a new industrial revolution?
Does Europe have a future in industry/and or in services/ can one develop
without industry?
Will the retreat of industry still permit the maintenance of a heart of innovation
and of Research and Development in Europe? etc.
Different recent students have weighed in on these questions.
The global results that are the most simple put forth several evident
contemporary evolutions like
1) the growth of international competition
2) the augmentation of international integration of markets)

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3) the growth of the technological changes

4) the shortening of the cycles of production
5) the arrival of new organizational forms.
New challenges also appear:
demography,
emerging Asia
new capacities of production
new markets
the environment.
If there is little doubt in confirming that the relocalizations will affect the European
industry and numerous basic services,there will be the necessity of a new focus on:
the quality of products,
the segments of products with a strong added value
high technology.
One must consider that the production of products instensive in non-or little qualified
labor will continue to diminish in the PIB of the countries of the OCDE.
Additionally, it is not set in stone that R&D activities must follow the localizations of
manufacturing industries;
Conversely, the competition in Research and Development will intensify It is thus
necessary for the developed countries:
to pursue import efforts in Research and Development
to push the frontiers of technology and certainly
to organise R&D around technology clusters:
agglomeration of technological activity
positive impacts which are linked to the technological
externalities that they bring.
The future of European production counts on the allocation of knowledge.
There has thus already been several decades since the announcement of the
entry of the developed nations into the economy of knowledge,
What methods does Europe give itself in order to be successful in this
entry?
There is thus the true technological challenge.

I) Dossier 5: Les chocs industriels de la mondialisation, Mucchielli

1) Quel avenir pour les pays dvelopps ?
2) Croissance les 5 derniers annes : BRICs ensemble reprsentent la moiti de la croissance mondiale
(Chine = )
3) IDEs associs
(a) Globalement : la dindustrialisation des pays dvelopps

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(b) Sectoriellement : chmage (dans des industries nationales concurrences par importations de
nouveaux pays mergents)
(c) IDEs ltranger risquent de provoquer du chmage dans le pays dorigine
(d) IDEs en provenance de ltranger risquent de faire perdre le caractre national des entreprises
locales
B) Investissements Directs Internationaux et Firmes Multinationales
1) Mondialisation et IDEs
(a) Une croissance importante des IDE
i IDE : investissement (>10%) de long terme pour que lentreprise de pays dorigine puisse contrler
une entreprise dans pays dacceuil
<10% mouvements de capitaux de portefeuille/spculation
ii flux dIDE entrants culminent en 2000 $1,411 milliard ; en 2006 $1,306 milliard. (1990 : $55
milliard)
hauts niveaux correspondent aux vagues de F&A
(b) Fusions acquisitions internationales et IDE de service
i 2 grandes vagues : dabord dans le secteur de dot-com boom, 2ement dans secteur
bancaire/tlcommunications
ii ampleur grandissant de secteurs de services / baisse dans des secteurs manufacturier et primaire
iii secteur de services atteint plus de 60% des IDE mondiaux vers 2000s (par contre 1990 : 49%)
(c) IDE et autres grandes variables internationales
i 1990-2006 : PIB x2,2 ; flux dIDE x6,4
ii ratio : flux dIDE/investissements intrieurs des pays ~ 14% en 2000s = ouverture croissante lie la
mondialisation
(d) Rpartition gographique des IDE
i Pays dvelopps :
Etats-Unis : premier investisseur mais aussi premier pays daccueil

MAIS : part dIDE sortant chute continuellement

Royaume-Uni, Allemagne et France dans groupe de la tte
Concentration forte : premiers 15 pays investisseurs = 86% mondialement
ii Pays en dveloppant
Tendances long terme des flux entrants dIDE indiquent que la part de flux des pays en
dveloppement augmente
Chine + Asie mergente : 4,5% 12%
Europe NEM10 (nouveaux tats membres) : 0 3,6%
iii France, R-U et Japon : IDE sortants le plus levs
iv Chine a le solde net dinvestissements entrants le plus lev (suivi dE-U et du Mxique)
v Allemagne : flux entrants et sortants de taille comparable : solde net plat
(e) IDE vers pays en dveloppement
i Pays mergents dAsie comptent pour 2/3 des IDE vers pays en dvpmnt
Chine accueille le plus dIDE entrants
(f) Les fonds financiers comme investisseurs internationaux
i Croissance en 2000s, risque
ii ????
2) Les Entreprises Multinationales

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(a) Dfinition
i Entreprises multinationale : une maison mre + filiales ltranger (ONU)
1992 : 35,000 multinationales/150,000 filiales ltranger
2006 : 78,000/780,000
ii entreprises multinationales : lorigine de ~2/3 du commerce mondial
1/3 = commerce intrafirme
(b) Entreprises multinationales ou globales ?
i Globale (Rugman) si :
au moins 20% des ventes dans chacune des trois zones
pas plus de 50% des ventes dans rgion dorigine
9/380 grandes entreprises (IBM, Coca-Cola, LMVH)
MAIS : par exemple, LMVH ne fabrique pas ltranger, donc on doit utiliser aussi dautres critres
(c) 100 Plus grandes multinationales
i 6 secteurs primaires : automobile ; ptrole ; quipement lectronique et lectrique ; produits
pharmaceutiques, tlcommunications ; lectricit, gaz, eau
ii 84% des entreprises originaires des pays dveloppes : Etats-Unis, R-U, France, Allemagne, Japon
(d) Indicateurs de la multinationalisation
i CNUCED : degr de multinationalisation :
1. Actifs ltranger/actifs totaux
2. Ventes ltr/ventes totales
3. Emploi ltr/emploi total
ii degr moyen global de multinationalisation : ~54%
la plupart des activits des grandes firmes multinationales seffectuent ltranger
iii degr dinternationalisation des filiales : part des filiales ltranger vs. nombre de filiales totales
iv degr de dispersion gographique des filiales : nombre de pays o une entreprise a des filiales vs.
nombre de pays daccueil potentiels
v [mais en gnral, investissements ltranger et localisation des entreprises multinationales restent
assez concentrs dans zone dorigine]
(e) Multinationales du sud
i Nombre de F&A attire lattention : gaz, lectrique, ptrole
ii Financement des entreprises des pays en dveloppement prend un caractre multinational
iii BRIC + Mxique = 88% du total de capitalisation dans des pays au dvpmt
(f) Dterminants de la multinationalisation
i Agglomration
les entreprises se colocalisent pour profiter dexternalits positives (Silicon Valley)
Multinationales souvent contraintes par effet distance ; tendance se localiser dabord prs de pays
dorigine
ii 3 grands principes de comportements de multinationalisation
market-seeking : rch de nouveaux marchs dans cadre de croissance de lentreprise
cost-seeking : rch de moindres cots des facteurs de production (capital, travail, terre, tech) dans cadre
de concurrence nationale
efficiency-seeking : rch de nouvelles positions de march dans cadre de concurrence oligopolistique

rch dconomies dchelle

dynamique de ses avantages concurrentiels

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C) Dlocalisation et dsindustrialisation
1) Dlocalisation des activits industrielles
(a) Dfinition : dlocalisation
i dplacement dune activit dune place vers autre [infra ou internationale]
toute importation de biens et de services ayant des substituts nationaux peut tre considre comme
une dlocalisation -Van Welsum et Vickey
ii offshore : fabrication effectue ltranger par des multinationales
par des filiales : production intrafirme ergo international insourcing
externalisatoin de production de certaines parties, composants, assemblage = international outsourcing
iii OCDE : organisation de coopration et dveloppement conomiques
iv Dcomposition internationale des processus productifs sest fortement dveloppe dernires annes
importations des pays OCDE de parties/composants en provenance de non-OCDE

1992 : 18%

2004 : 33%
(b) Crainte des dlocalisations
i Craintes principales : pertes demplois/pressions baisse sur salaires
Concurrence de travailleurs en prov des pays faibles salaires
(c) Dlocalisations et emploi
i Inquitudes sur lemploi dmenties par faits et analyses
Pays OCDE ont enregistr des niveaux de productivit et de salaires rels moyens plus levs quils se
sont spcialiss dans la production de B&S pour lesquels ils disposent dun avantage comparatif
France perd 250,000 travails de 1970-2002 (15%)
Allemagne pas vraiment affect
Etude sur la France

Une entreprise rduit fortement (au moins 25%) les effectifs employs dans une courte priode
lintrieur du pays

En mme temps, augmente importations du mme type du produit

0,35% des emplois industriels dlocaliss chaque anne 1995-2001

pays bas salaires : peu moins de la moiti des destinations de dloc
(d) IDE et Exportations
i 3 types dentreprises franaises classifies A, B, C
A : prsente dans zone dimplantation et dchange considre
B : absentes de zone dimpl mais implantes dans dautres zones
C : sans implantation ltr
ii Limplantation ltr apparat tre largement complmentaire de lexportation
Donc une entreprise qui simplante ltr peut avoir des opportunits plus grandes/faciles pour
continuer pntrer le mme march sur des produits complmentaires en termes de gammes/composants
2) Dsindustrialisation
(a) Dcroissance des emplois dans lindustrie
i Dsindustrialisation des pays dvelopps : baisse tendancielle de lemploi industriel au profit de
lemploi dans les services
ii Emploi industriel direct baisse dans tous les grands secteurs sauf biens dquipement face la
concurrence trangre
(b) Cration de plus demploi dans secteur service = cration nette demploi

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(c) Raisons pour dsindustrialisation dans pays dvelopps

i Progrs technologique
ii Hausses de productivit dans secteur manufacturier
iii Glissements dans la demande de consommation interne vers services
iv volution dmographique ainsi que rle croissant des services dans production manufacturire
v **dans ces volutions macroconomiques le commerce avec pays mergents napparat que marginal
3) Dlocalisation des services : la nouvelle vague is your job next ?
(a) Lenvole des implantations ltranger dans les services
i Progrs des NTIC (technologies de linformatique et de la communication) a cre de nouveaux types
de services changeables
Grand nombre dactivits de services peuvent tre ralises indpendamment de leur localisation
gographique production et prsentation pas besoin de se drouler au mme endroit

Emplois de bureau exposs la concurrence internationale

Saisie de donns, centres dappels tlphoniques

Dveloppement de logiciels ; diagnostics mdical partir de radiographies ; dessin industriel ;

conception architecturale
(b) LInde, pays daccueil des services dlocaliss
i Dveloppement du secteur des services en/ouverture dInde
Main duvre relativement duque
American Express en 1993 (back-office)
ii Implantations se font galement en Recherche et Dveloppement
1) Moins de 20% des entreprises amricaines ont stratgie de dvpmt internationale
2) 95% des entreprises classes dans les 1,000 premires de Forbes-oui
(c) Rsultats statistiques sur la dlocalisation des services
i Calcul cot/efficacit
Cest parfois un gain de 40%, parfois mme ngatif
ii Welsum/Vickery : Potential offshoring of ICT-Intensive Using Occupations
Pour dterminer les professions retenir (qui peuvent tre ralises nimporte o), descriptions de
tches selon 4 critres

1.) utilisation intensive des TIC (information/communications tech)

2.) Production pouvant tre commercialise/transmise grce aux TIC

3.) Contenu en connaissances fortement codifiable

4.) absence de ncessit de contacts en face face

iii environs 20% de lemploi total des services est dlocalisable
(d) Importations et exportations de services
i Exportations de services croissance rapide des importations de ces services en majeure partie en
prov des pays de lOCDE (organisation de coopration et de dveloppement conomiques)
ii Pour linstant : avantages positifs de dloc des services lis aux NTIC > cots malgr des difficults
souleves court terme
iii Mann : mondialisation + fragmentation de fabrication de produits/services ont engendr baisses de
prix de 10 30% ; contribu croissance de productivit de 0,3%/an ($230 milliards de PIB)
D) Le futur industriel de lEurope ?
1) Y aura-t-il une nouvelle rvolution industrielle ? LEurope a-t-elle un avenir dans lindustrie et/ou
services ?

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2) Quelques volutions contemporaines videntes :

(a) Laccroissement de la concurrence internationale
(b) Augmentation de lintgration internationale des marchs
(c) Accroissement des changements technologique
(d) Raccourcissement des cycles des produits
(e) Lavnement de nouvelles formes organisationnelles
3) Dfis :
(a) Asie mergente avec nouvelles capacits de production et nouveaux marchs
(b) Lenvironnement
4) R&D na pas forcment prdestination suivre les localisations des industries manufacturires donc
pays dvelopps doivent poursuivre les efforts R&D
5) Donc :
(a) production manufacturire et de services classiques base sur principes de disponibilit de capital et
travail (K et L)
(b) avenir de la production europenne table sur dotation en connaissance
i quels moyens lEurope se donne-t-elle pour russir cette entre ?

FUCK GOOGLE DOCS FORMATTING

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