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epidemiological levels and trends around the world, and its most recent iteration measures the
impact of hundreds of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in 187 countries. The Institute for
Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington is the coordinating
center for this effort. The principle guiding the GBD approach is that the best estimates can
only be generated by analyzing all available sources of information in an area and correcting
for problems with the data. More than a research study, the GBD approach is a platform for
comparative assessment that provides a set of measurement tools that countries can use to
track changes in population health, identify successes, and address health challenges. GBD
aims to bring new attention to a broader range of illnesses and conditions having an impact on
health worldwide and to help guide new target-setting exercises for health improvement. It
also provides a framework and knowledge that can advance efforts to develop and implement
truly effective health interventions
6-Comparative Risk Assessment: Is an environmental decision-making tool used to
systematically measure, compare, and rank environmental problems or issue areas. The
process typically focuses on the risks a problem poses to human health, he natural
environment and quality of life, and results in a list (or lists) of issue areas ranked in terms of
relative risks. Efforts to set environmental priorities raise a wide variety of questions.
Comparative risk analyses are undertaken to achieve numerous goals. The most common goal
is to establish priorities for a government agency, political body, or community a-large. It is
often used to determine how to best allocate limited resources for reducing or preventing
environmental risks. Comparative risk analysis generally investigates residual risks- The risks
remaining after a problem is addressed by current regulatory controls.
7-Uncertainty Interval: The uncertainty of measurement can be defined as a parameter
associated with the result of a measurement that characterizes the dispersion of the values
that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand. (Intervational Vocabulary of basic and
general standard terms in Metrology (1993)). This arameter is usually a standard deviation or
the width of a confidence interval.
8-Confidence interval: In statistics a confidence interval (CI) is a type of interval estimate of a
population parameter. It is an observed interval (i.e. it is calculated from the observations), in
principle different from sample to sample, that frequently includes the parameter of interest if
the experiment is repeated. How frequently the observed interval contains the parameter is
determined by the confidence level or confidence coefficient. More specifically, the meaning
of the term "confidence level" is that, if confidence intervals are constructed across many
separate data analyses of repeated (and possibly different) experiments, the proportion of
such intervals that contain the true value of the parameter will match the confidence level;
this is guaranteed by the reasoning underlying the construction of confidence intervals.
Whereas two-sided confidence limits form a confidence interval, their one-sided counterparts
are referred to as lower or upper confidence bounds.
Confidence intervals consist of a range of values (interval) that act as good estimates of the
unknown population parameter. However, in infrequent cases, none of these values may cover
the value of the parameter. The level of confidence of the confidence interval would indicate
the probability that the confidence range captures this true population parameter given a
distribution of samples. It does not describe any single sample. This value is represented by a
percentage, so when we say, "we are 99% confident that the true value of the parameter is in
our confidence interval", we express that 99% of the observed confidence intervals will hold
the true value of the parameter. After a sample is taken, the population parameter is either in
the interval made or not; it is not a matter of chance. The desired level of confidence is set by
the researcher (not determined by data). If a corresponding hypothesis test is performed, the
confidence level is the complement of respective level of significance, i.e. a 95% confidence
interval reflects a significance level of 0.05.The confidence interval contains the parameter
values that, when tested, should not be rejected with the same sample. Greater levels of
variance yield larger confidence intervals, and hence less precise estimates of the parameter.
Confidence intervals of difference parameters not containing 0 imply that there is a statistically
significant difference between the populations.
In applied practice, confidence intervals are typically stated at the 95% confidence
level.However, when presented graphically, confidence intervals can be shown at several
confidence levels, for example 50%, 95% and 99%.
Certain factors may affect the confidence interval size including size of sample, level of
confidence, and population variability. A larger sample size normally will lead to a better
estimate of the population parameter.
A confidence interval does not predict that the true value of the parameter has a particular
probability of being in the confidence interval given the data actually obtained. Intervals with
this property, called credible intervals, exist only in the paradigm of Bayesian statistics, as they
require postulation of a prior distribution for the parameter of interest.
Confidence intervals were introduced to statistics by Jerzy Neyman in a paper published in
1937.
Glosario
1-El meta-anlisis es un conjunto de herramientas estadsticas, que son tiles para sintetizar
los datos de una coleccin de estudios; dicho meta-anlisis, inicia con una estimacin de cierto
efecto recopilatorio (como la diferencia media, la razn de riesgo, o la correlacin) de cada
estudio. El metaanlisis permite ver estos efectos en contexto: si el tamao del efecto es
consistente, el efecto del tratamiento puede ser reportado como fuerte; y el tamao del
efecto puede estimarse ms preciso que con un solo estudio. Si el tamao del efecto vara, esa
variacin puede ser descrita y, potencialmente, explicada
2-Estudios de intervencin aleatoria: Los estudios de intervencin o experimentales
constituyen la incorporacin metodolgica ms reciente a la epidemiologa, y a la vez una de
sus herramientas ms poderosas. Estos estudios representan, asimismo el ltimo eslabn en la
progresin del razonamiento epidemiolgico, ya que se han diseao y ejecutado
adecuadamente, proporcionan la evidencia epidemiolgica ms fuerte y directa para juzgar la
existencia de una relacin de causalidad entre una exposicin y un efecto.
3-Estudios de cohorte: estudio epidemiolgico, observacional, analtico, longitudinal
prospectivo, en el que se hace una comparacin de la frecuencia de enfermedad (o de un
determinado desenlace) entre dos poblaciones, una de las cuales est expuesta a un
determinado factor de exposicin o factor de riesgo al que no est expuesta la otra. Los
magnitud de los cambios que ocurriran si disminuyeran o eliminaran algunos de esos factores.
Requiere de los factores de mortalidad y morbilidad.
7-Intervalo de Incertidumbre:
8-Intervalo de Confianza: En estadstica, se llama a un par o varios pares de nmeros entre los
cuales se estima que estar cierto valor desconocido con una determinada probabilidad de
acierto. Formalmente, estos nmeros determinan un intervalo, que se calcula a partir de datos
de una muestra, y el valor desconocido es un parmetro poblacional. La probabilidad de xito
en la estimacin se representa con 1 - y se denomina nivel de confianza. En estas
circunstancias, es el llamado error aleatorio o nivel de significacin, esto es, una medida de
las posibilidades de fallar en la estimacin mediante tal intervalo.
El nivel de confianza y la amplitud del intervalo varan conjuntamente, de forma que un
intervalo ms amplio tendr ms probabilidad de acierto (mayor nivel de confianza), mientras
que para un intervalo ms pequeo, que ofrece una estimacin ms precisa, aumenta su
probabilidad de error.
Para la construccin de un determinado intervalo de confianza es necesario conocer la
distribucin terica que sigue el parmetro a estimar, . Es habitual que el parmetro presente
una distribucin normal. Tambin pueden construirse intervalos de confianza con la
desigualdad de Chebyshev.
En definitiva, un intervalo de confianza al 1 - por ciento para la estimacin de un parmetro
poblacional que sigue una determinada distribucin de probabilidad, es una expresin del
tipo [1, 2] tal que P[1 2] = 1 - , donde P es la funcin de distribucin de probabilidad
de .
8-Intervalo de incertidumbre: Seala una serie de datos que estn demasiado apartados de
los datos comunes, es decir que con este intervalo lo que se busca es una mayor seguridad y
exactitud con los datos, este intervalo es normalmente usado para datos experimentales para
lograr una mayor exactitud de los resultados.
Bibliography
http://www.icap.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=ng0GLumXFaw%3d&tabid=243
http://www.medicoscubanos.com/diccionario_medico.aspx?q=Carga%20de%20enfermed
ad
http://www.eufic.org/article/es/artid/medicion-carga-enfermedad-conceptos-AVACAVAD/
http://scorecard.goodguide.com/comp-risk/def/comprisk_explanation.html
http://stat-athens.aueb.gr/~esi/proceedings/18/pdf/441-449.pdf