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Fashion Industry 2043: Risk Mitigation and Long-Term Competitive Strategy Through Scenario Work | Sustainable Brands
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SUPPLY CHAIN
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October 7, 2013
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The fashion industry has gone through dramatic changes in the last 20-30 years. Indeed it
finds itself in the present at a crossroad: Resource scarcity is triggering shifts in business
models and supply chains; waste is the new resource; customers are the sales channel of
the future; and legislation is becoming ever more stringent.
Yet few businesses venture to think about how their industry may look in five, 15, or 30
years time. Radical changes are bound to happen in our world, and its consumer and
sourcing markets, over the course of the next few decades, and we will encounter serious
challenges of running businesses if we continue as we have in the last few.
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Many consider any scenario beyond a five-year horizon to be out of touch with reality. The
fact though is: If looking back at predictions of 1950 or 1960, the reality we live in compares
best to the predictions that were considered 'totally crazy' in their time. To name but a few:
home and Internet shopping specifically for fashion (http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=rpq5ZmANp0k&list=PLq_AdCVpaoXpeVPQqBxyy29oNeCE4CoyL) ; abundant use of electronic
payment means via cards, tele-banking; space technology; mobile phones and wireless
technology It was all there, akin to how we know it today.
In order to develop successful and meaningful long-term scenarios for the business context,
there are three fundamental key points to be considered during elaboration:
Developments of the past are not simply to be prolonged to the future as a logical and
successive process. Technologies and societal shifts embryonic at the time of research are
to be analysed, evaluated and then 'built into' the scenario as the new 'mainstream.' At this stage, a
business' own agenda and vision are not admitted for consideration (yet).
Accounts of extreme events of the present are taken as indicators for common events in a
couple of decades. There is no limitation in terms of factors and impacts that are taken into
consideration the range of which may reach from resource scarcity to high-tech application in
home appliances.
RECENT COMMENTS
Application of design thinking techniques is essential to assess consumer response and 'the
practical use' of the different scenario components. New ways, ultimately, must be useful and
desirable to consumers as much as businesses in order to become popular and represent a
potential 'new status quo.'
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Good examples of quality scenario work include Forum for the Futures work on cotton
(http://www.forumforthefuture.org/project/cotton-futures/overview) and consumers
(http://www.forumforthefuture.org/project/which-consumers-2030/overview) .
At texSture (http://texSture.com/) , we researched during Q2 2013, trends, influences and impacts
that will impact and shape the fashion and textiles (/news_and_views/supply_chain/canepa-becomes-
first-textile-manufacturer-sign-greenpeaces-detox-agreeme) industry in the next 5, 10 and 30 years time.
From this research we were able to distil three distinct scenario 'story lines':
Sajin Gangadharan
Good one veronica...
#SB14London: Are Marketing and Sustainability Like Oil
and Water? 1 hour ago
Ismael Bena
Great objective and seemingly possible, ...
others will follow when accomplishing such
stretch goals.
Denmark Sets 100 Percent Renewable Energy Goal for
2050 3 hours ago
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expensive and rare items, including clothing.
Practical implications for brands:
Operations: Need for diversification of raw materials used in design, and hence products. Search
and development of alternative materials for which scaling does not pose any, or at least fewer,
long-term problems.
Technology: Refinement of recovery and recycling technologies, specifically in efficiency and
complexity terms. 'Closing the loop' acquires proprietary traits (again), so that recycled materials
may remain reliably within a specific company's raw materials stream.
Business models: Lease-and-take-back schemes will become popular even for fabrics. These go
hand in hand with recovery and recycling schemes.
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Wage Reviews in
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