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OUTLOOK
4.6
4.5
3.6
3.5
FORECAST
2.4
2.8
-2.1
Source: NAR, BEA
OUTLOOK
15
300
10
100
5
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
2014 - Jan
2014 - Jul
-100
-500
-10
-700
-15
-900
-20
1300000
1200000
1100000
1000000
900000
800000
700000
2000 - 2002 - 2004 - 2006 - 2008 - 2010 - 2012 - 2014 Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
-300
0
-5
OUTLOOK
NATIONAL
2.63%
OFFICE
2.78%
INDUSTRIAL
2.92%
RETAIL
2.33%
APARTMENT
2.53%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2.2
2.2
2.7
2.9
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.6
1.9
2.7
2.0
3.3
73
87
95
98
7.4
0.1
0.1
4.3
2.6
3.4
6.2
0.1
0.1
4.2
2.6
3.4
5.7
0.4
0.7
4.8
3.2
4.2
5.5
1.6
1.9
5.8
4.3
5.4
OUTLOOK
Eased Significantly
80%
70%
Eased Somewhat
60%
50%
Not Changed
40%
Tightened
Somewhat
30%
During 2013, commercial real estate witnessed broadbased increases in capital availability.
90%
Small Business
Administration
REITs
80%
Regional Banks
70%
Public Cos.
100%
20%
Tightened
Significantly
10%
0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
OUTLOOK
Other
90%
Sales composition:
- Office CBD: 18%
- Office Suburban: 32%
- Industrial Warehouse: 36%
- Industrial Flex: 20%
- Multi-family: 30%
- Retail Strip Center: 26%
- Retail Mall: 4%
- Land: 40%
- Hotel: 6%
- Other: 18%
100% Cash
80%
50%
70%
55%
60%
60%
50%
65%
40%
70%
30%
75%
20%
80%
10%
85%
0%
90%
2011
2012
2013
2014
OUTLOOK
OFFICE
2014
2015
2016
16.2%
15.7%
15.6%
Vacancy Rate
Net Absorption
('000 sq. ft.)
13,855 12,002 11,851 12,865 12,123 13,522 13,352 35,586 48,841 55,026
8,663
10,095 12,079
9,857
4,134
4,144
4,156
4,166
4,176
4,186
4,198
4,134
4,176
4,220
Rent Growth
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
0.8%
0.9%
2.6%
3.3%
3.6%
2014
2015
2016
8.9%
8.5%
8.1%
INDUSTRIAL
15.7%
15.8%
15.7%
15.7%
15.6%
15.7%
15.6%
Vacancy Rate
Net Absorption
('000 sq. ft.)
25,450 18,443 25,616 30,739 27,665 19,040 26,445 110,652 102,463 105,780
15,666 14,983 22,118 20,691 13,556 13,040 19,250 81,009 71,349 62,097
8,466
8,480
8,503
8,523
8,537
8,550
8,569
8,466
8,537
8,599
Rent Growth
0.7%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.8%
2.4%
2.9%
3.1%
2014
2015
2016
9.8%
9.6%
9.4%
RETAIL
8.8%
8.7%
8.5%
8.5%
8.4%
8.3%
8.1%
Vacancy Rate
Net Absorption
('000 sq. ft.)
9.7%
9.7%
9.6%
9.6%
9.5%
9.6%
9.4%
3,879
5,096
4,341
3,486
5,949
6,424
5,472
3,719
2,940
2,567
2,941
3,264
4,162
3,596
7,747
11,711 15,924
2,050
2,053
2,055
2,058
2,061
2,066
2,069
2,050
2,061
2,077
Rent Growth
0.6%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.7%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2014
2015
2016
4.0%
4.1%
4.2%
MULTI-FAMILY
Vacancy Rate
4.0%
4.0%
4.1%
4.3%
4.1%
4.2%
76,152 43,855 39,723 37,479 50,110 36,799 33,332 216,296 171,167 143,626
Completions (Units)
Inventory
(Units in millions)
47,123 41,919 55,952 54,433 58,364 35,473 45,058 180,796 210,669 165,339
Rent Growth
10.2
10.3
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.2
10.5
10.6
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
1.0%
0.9%
4.0%
3.9%
3.5%
OUTLOOK
Office
Albuquerque
Atlanta
Austin
Baltimore
Birmingham
Boston
Buffalo
Central New Jersey
Charleston
Charlotte
Chattanooga
Chicago
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Colorado Springs
Columbia
Columbus
Dallas
Dayton
Denver
Detroit
District of Columbia
Fairfield County
Fort Lauderdale
Fort Worth
Greensboro/Winston-Salem
Greenville
Hartford
Houston
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Knoxville
Las Vegas
Lexington
Little Rock
Long Island
NM
GA
TX
MD
AL
MA
NY
NJ
SC
NC
TN
IL
OH
OH
CO
SC
OH
TX
OH
CO
MI
DC
CT
FL
TX
NC
SC
CT
TX
IN
FL
MO
TN
NV
KY
AR
NY
17.3
19.4
15.8
16.4
13.7
12.9
15.8
21.6
13.8
17.5
16.2
18.6
20.4
22.8
18.2
17.6
18.6
23.1
26.6
16.6
25.1
9.3
21.9
19.6
16.5
21.5
19.2
19.9
14.6
19.7
21.1
17.1
14.7
25.7
16.7
11.6
13.2
Industrial
13.6
11.0
11.6
17.9
12.7
8.6
8.7
8.9
9.3
12.5
7.7
11.4
8.6
9.9
8.1
9.6
7.8
10.3
Retail
Multifamily
11.6
13.1
6.5
6.3
13.8
6.3
13.2
9.7
11.0
9.8
15.2
12.2
12.3
14.6
14.9
10.5
15.9
12.9
16.2
10.6
11.6
3.3
5.8
6.1
4.0
6.5
4.5
3.1
2.8
6.2
5.6
5.1
3.5
3.3
2.8
3.6
6.3
5.0
5.3
5.0
4.5
3.0
7.0
5.6
4.3
4.6
5.9
5.4
2.4
5.8
6.1
6.6
4.5
4.4
5.1
4.9
6.4
2.8
3.9
10.0
12.1
11.4
14.2
10.1
11.7
15.3
13.0
11.5
11.6
12.0
7.9
11.4
5.3
OUTLOOK
Los Angeles
Louisville
Memphis
Miami
Milwaukee
Minneapolis
Nashville
New Haven
New Orleans
New York
Norfolk/Hampton Roads
Northern New Jersey
Oakland-East Bay
Oklahoma City
Omaha
Orange County
Orlando
Palm Beach
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Pittsburgh
Portland
Providence
Raleigh-Durham
Richmond
Rochester
Sacramento
Salt Lake City
San Antonio
San Bernardino/Riverside
San Diego
San Francisco
San Jose
Seattle
St. Louis
CA
KY
TN
FL
WI
MN
TN
CT
LA
NY
VA
NJ
CA
OK
NE
CA
FL
FL
PA
AZ
PA
OR
RI
NC
VA
NY
CA
UT
TX
CA
CA
CA
CA
WA
MO
Office
Industrial
Retail
Multifamily
14.7
15.1
23.5
15.6
18.9
16.6
14.0
16.9
13.0
9.6
16.3
18.7
17.4
17.1
14.7
17.0
17.2
17.1
13.8
25.3
16.6
13.4
15.8
14.8
14.5
17.1
20.6
17.3
17.4
23.3
15.8
12.2
17.7
12.8
17.2
3.7
5.7
9.1
11.7
7.0
12.8
11.0
8.2
13.8
11.8
3.2
5.5
8.7
3.8
3.5
3.1
4.8
2.3
5.7
2.7
5.2
4.4
2.6
4.8
3.0
2.2
5.3
5.1
3.4
5.0
3.4
3.1
2.3
7.1
4.7
2.8
2.2
4.0
5.7
3.0
2.6
3.3
2.7
4.4
4.4
14.6
6.0
7.1
7.9
8.8
3.6
10.9
6.5
9.8
11.0
8.8
7.9
14.6
11.5
11.6
7.2
7.2
6.8
10.8
16.5
5.8
6.6
9.6
5.5
6.2
13.4
8.9
5.2
12.0
10.2
9.2
10.2
7.7
8.1
11.8
9.1
9.8
12.5
10.9
12.1
11.0
10.1
6.2
3.5
4.6
7.0
12.2
OUTLOOK
Suburban Maryland
Suburban Virginia
Syracuse
Tacoma
Tampa-St. Petersburg
Tucson
Tulsa
Ventura County
Westchester
Wichita
MD
VA
NY
WA
FL
AZ
OK
CA
NY
KS
Office
Industrial
Retail
Multifamily
16.1
17.4
14.5
15.2
21.1
17.0
16.8
18.2
18.9
17.4
11.0
10.6
8.2
5.4
14.0
13.1
10.9
10.2
15.4
8.7
7.9
14.3
4.0
4.8
3.1
3.3
4.6
5.6
5.5
2.6
3.0
3.5
7.9
10
OUTLOOK
Sales Volume
Sales Prices
30%
8%
20%
6%
4%
10%
2%
0%
0%
-10%
-2%
-20%
-4%
-6%
-30%
-8%
-40%
-10%
-50%
Realtors
-12%
Office
Multifamily
Industrial
Retail
Hospitality
2.8
4.0
3.6
3.2
3.2
Office
Multifamily
Industrial
Retail
Hospitality
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.0
2.9
Scale: 1 5
Scale: 1 5
Canada &
Mexico
East
Midwest
Other
South
West
Apartment
Office CBD
Office Suburban
Warehouse
Flex
Retail
Hotel
Development
Land
5.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
6.8
6.9
7.4
7.9
8
6.8
7.7
9.8
12.5
7.8
8.6
8.9
8.1
8.4
8.5
9.4
12.3
12.7
6.4
6.8
7.4
7.6
7.5
6.5
7.9
8.7
11
7.2
7.8
8.4
8.3
8.3
7.7
7.9
11.9
8.4
5.7
6.8
7.5
7
7.1
6.9
6.8
13.7
7.5
6.0
11
OUTLOOK
The Research Division of the National Association of REALTORS monitors and analyzes monthly and
quarterly economic indicators, including retail sales, industrial production, producer price index, gross
domestic product and employment data which impact commercial markets over time. In addition, the
Research Division provides several products covering commercial real estate:
CONTACT
Lawrence Yun, PhD
Chief Economist, Sr. Vice
President, Research
lyun@realtors.org
George Ratiu
Director, Quantitative &
Commercial Research
gratiu@realtors.org
REALTOR.org/research-and-statistics
economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org
www.facebook.com/narresearchgroup
twitter.com/#!/NAR_Research
www.ccim.com/resources/itq
www.siorprofessionalreport-digital.com
Copyright 2014 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS. Reproduction, reprinting or retransmission in
any form is prohibited without written permission. For questions regarding this matter please e-mail
eresearch@realtors.org.
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