Getting

and
Spending

Governing

The Balance to be Struck

Allocating

money to keep the coalition happy

but not too happy!
!

Provide

just enough to keep the interchangeables from rising up

in revolt
Happy people dont revolt no reason to
Benevolent dictators are rare
People in abject poverty dont revolt no will, no means
Its all those places where the interchangeables are somewhere
in between that leaders have to be extra careful

Democracy

As the size of the winning coalition increases, public

goods become the efficient means to pay off its
members
non-excludable
non-rivalrous
often

suffer negative externalities

under-produced
overused
degraded

Democrats campaign by offering different baskets of

public goods and different means of producing them
(ideology)

Democracy & Wealth

Does development lead to democracy?

OR

Does democracy lead to development

Selectorate Theory
Leaders

want to survive.

Survival

entails keeping the essentials loyal and

interchangeable quiescent
regardless

of regime type

In

democracies this just so happens to involve

looking out for the welfare of a vast majority of
the people (non-excludable)

 Growth

does not guarantee political improvement,

but neither does it preclude it.
!

Autocrats

often argue that political liberalization is

a luxury that has to be set aside until wealth is
obtained.
!

Dependence

on a large coalition of essentials is a

powerful explanation for the quality of life.

Correlation
You

don't know anything about politics in a given

country but they ask you whether it is a democracy
or a dictatorship.
!

Look

at its per capita income. You can make a

pretty good guess.

Correlation
You

don't know anything about politics in a given

country but they ask you whether it is a democracy
or a dictatorship.
!

Look

at its per capita income. You can make a

pretty good guess.

The Data

How to make sense of this relationship?

Can

we say that economic development causes

democratization? (modernization hypothesis)
!

Contrary

to Selectorate Theory, Przeworski,

Alvarez, Cheibub and Limongi say No. (Do
these names ring a bell?)
Democratic

regimes are more likely to survive in economically

developed countries.
If you live in a democracy with an income per capita over $4,000,
you'll probably continue to live in a democracy.
(That is, unless you are living in Argentina.)

X Y, Y X, Z Y Z X
We

might hypothesize that dictatorships are more conducive to

economic growth?
After

all, you can implement the policies you want without worrying too much about
dissent.

Alternatively,

we can argue that democracies are more conducive to

economic growth.
Leaders

in democracies are accountable to the constituency, they have to make better

decisions about allocating resources.

Przeworski

et al. disagree with both arguments. There is no evidence to

show that democracies and dictatorships differ in terms of economic
growth.
!

However,

they show that political instability has more negative impact

on economic performance in dictatorships than in democracies.

X Y, Y X, Z Y Z X
Przeworski

et al. conclude that there is no evidence

to show that democracies and dictatorships differ
in terms of economic growth.
!

However,

they show that political instability has

more negative impact on economic performance
in dictatorships than in democracies.

North Korea has 1

4-year, comprehensive university

Bailouts and Coalition Size

Bailouts and Coalition Size

Bailouts

are often a sign that leaders screwed up.

In

small coalition regimes, the leader uses the

bailout to pay off (essential) cronies.
!

In

large coalition regimes, there is often a change

of leaders:
new

basket of public goods

regulatory reform

Even Autocrats Provide Some Public Goods

Why?

Even Autocrats Provide Some Public Goods.

Why?
Leaders need to collect taxes.
Economically productive people have more with
which to pay.
So, autocrats will spend on the type of public
goods that are necessary for economic productivity
(but not on other sorts of public goods)

Infrastructure
Basic

health care
Primary education

Education
Too

much educational opportunity can equip ordinary folk

(interchangeables) to revolt
Math

and Science in autocracies

Political Science and Sociology are most studied in democracies
!

Autocracies

rarely have great universities

China

and Singapore are the only authoritarian regimes with universities in the
top 200
Dictators children usually go oversees for schooling (Oxford)
!

Universities

themselves, however, are kind of like small

coalition regimes
Legacy

admissions
Alumni and Development

Health Care
Basic

healthcare is sometimes good in autocracies

Yet,
It

infant mortality rates are typically high

will be a long time before infants are interchangeables.

Benevolent
When

dictators?

Batista was democratically elected he was an effective social

reformer with successful economic policies.
When he returned to power in a small coalition regime, he was less
concerned with these issues (ideology?)
Relative infant mortality rate in Cuba declined under both Batista II
and Castro (radically different ideologies)

Infant Mortality

The worlds 36 governments that depend on the

largest group of essentials have thirty-one fewer
infant deaths per 1,000 births than the forty-four
governments that depend on the smallest group of
essentials.
!

Comparing the same eighty countries but now based

on per capita income, the poorest have fifteen more
infant deaths per 1,000 births than the richest.
!

Being rich does facilitate saving babies lives but not

as much as being democratic!

Clean Drinking Water

Controlling

for income, drinking water is cleaner

and more widely available in democracies.
Honduras
$4,100

per capita income

90% of the population has access to clean drinking water
Equatorial Guinea:
$37,000 per capital income
44% of the population has access to clean drinking water
Shared climate, colonial history, and religion
On average, 20% gap in availability of clean drinking water
between large coalition governments and small coalition
governments

Building Infrastructure
Roads
Goods

to market & Autocrat out of the country and thats it!

Roads

are expensive

Terrain

can serve as an impediment

Established neighborhoods can serve as an impediment
Typically end up costing more in autocracies graft (cronies)
!

Ratio

of driving distance to the distance as the crow

flies small ratio means straight road
Only

2 of the 30 lowest ratios are in democracies (30 years)

Only 2 of the 10 lowest ratios are in democracies (now)

Earthquakes
Impact
Bam,

and response are a function of politics

Iran 2003
6.5 to 6.6 on the Richter Scale
More than 26,000 o f 97,000 residents were killed
Iquique, Chille 2005
7.9 on the Richter Scale (25 time greater than Bam)
11 of 238,000 residents were killed

Building Codes
Detailed
Updated
Enforced
!

Big coalitions save lives because big-coalition

leaders know that if they dont protect their
ordinary citizens theyll be turned out of office in
favor of someone who will.

Further Reading

Przeworski,

Adam, Michael Alvarez, Jose Antonio

Cheibub and Fernando Limongi. 2000. Democracy
and Development: Political Institutions and WellBeing in the World, 1950-1990. Cambridge
University Press.