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Show your work. Check confidence interval and hypothesis test calculations with TI-83
functions. Show the functions and the arguments to the functions.
1. Explain what standard error is.
It is the standard deviation of a sampling distribution of size n = n0, where n0 is some
positive integer.
2. How do the tails of the t distribution differ from the tails of the standard normal distribution?
Theyre fatter and longer. (For 1 df, theyre so fat that there is no mean Cauchy
distribution). As df gets bigger, they get closer and closer to normal distribution.
3. The following data represent the ages of a random sample of people who were unsuccessful
in winning promotion: 34, 37, 37, 38, 41, 42, 43, 44, 44, 45, 45, 45, 46, 48, 49, 53, 53, 54, 54,
55, 56, 57, 60 ->L2
a. What is the mean and standard deviation? 46.96, 7.220 (mean -> C)
b. What is the estimated standard error of the sampling distribution of the mean?
s
7.220
1.506
n
23
->A
c. For a 95% confidence interval for the mean, what is ? 1 0.95 = 0.05
d. For the confidence interval, would you used z or z/2 or t or t/2 as a multiplier? t/2
Why use a z (or t) value? Use t because s is unknown, and the t-distribution allows for
uncertainty in both the mean and standard deviation.
Why use or /2 ? Use t/2 because a confidence interval, as used in our course, is a twotailed confidence interval, with /2 in each tail.
e. What is the value of the multiplier specified in part c. above in this case (precise to 4
significant digits) ?
t / 2 , df 22 2.074
s
2.074 1.506 3.122 (A*upper->B)
n
g. How could we (assuming we could redo this experiment) decrease the margin of error?
Increase n, the size of the sample.
h. What is the point estimate for the estimate of the age of failure? 46.96 years
Why did you use this number? Because the sample mean is an unbiased estimator of the
population mean, and the best estimate of the population mean.
i. What is the 95% confidence interval for the age of failure?
46.96 3.122 ( 43.83,50.08)
j. How can you check your work? TI-83: TInterval, input=data, List=L2 C-level = 0.95) =
(43.83, 50.08)
k. Is it necessary in this case that the distribution of the observations is bell-shaped? No.
l. Why or why not? Although n is not large (23), we know that the two-sided t confidence
interval is robust against non-normality, as long as there are no outliers (and there are
none, since all values lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean).
m. Write a statement interpreting this confidence interval.
The estimate for the average age of people unsuccessful in obtaining promotion is 46.96
years. With 95% confidence, we can say that the true mean of the average age of people
unsuccessful in obtaining promotion lies between 43.83 years and 50.08 years.
n. How would you explain to someone unfamiliar with statistics what 95% confidence in
the computed interval means?
That, on average, if we took 23 samples over and over again, that the true mean would be
captured by the confidence interval 95 times out of 100 tries.
4. We are interested in increasing the number of students who pass the 9th grade in a certain
school system. In 2005, 8928 of 9340 pass. In 2006, 9204 of 9516 pass.
a. Find 95% confidence intervals for the number who pass for the two years.
2005: est of 0.956 (0.952, 0.960)
2006: est of 0.967 (0.963, 0.971)
279
267
260
230
261
266
266
264
255
240
(a)
Use the data to compute a point estimate for the population mean gestation period. Put the
above data in L1. Do 1-Var Stats on L1, xbar = 258.8
(b)
Construct a 90% confidence interval for the mean gestation period for all of Dr.
Oswiecmiski's patients.
(d)
Do Dr. Oswiecmiski's patients have a mean gestation period different from 266 days?
No Why? Because the population mean ( = 266) is included in the confidence interval.
6. Weather in Chicago . The high temperature in Chicago for the month of August is
distributed approximately normally, with mean = 80 F . A random sample of 10 days
in Chicago during August 2000 results in the following data:
77
81
(a) Use
81
73
72
92
86
75
76
87
the data to compute a point estimate for the population mean high
temperature in Chicago in August. Put the above data in L2. Do 1-Var Stats on L2, xbar
= 80.0F A, sx = 6.62 B (remember sx for use in b)iii below.) Note: use VARS>Statistics->xbar and VARS->Statistics->sx to get the values to store in A and B.
(b) Construct
Chicago.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii.
ix.
x.
(c)
Is there evidence that August, 2000 was normal? Yes, the sample mean is exactly equal to
the population mean, and the confidence interval for the population mean high temperature
includes the true mean.
7. How Often Do You Bathe? A Gallup poll conducted December 20-21, 1999, asked 1031
randomly selected Americans, "How often do you bathe each week?" Results of the
survey indicated that x = 6.9 and s = 2.8.
a. Construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean number of times Americans
bathed each week in 1999. (6.68, 7.13) (Simplest method is to use TInterval)
b. Interpret the interval. The estimated mean number of times Americans bathed each
week in 1999 is 6.9 times. A 95% confidence interval for the population mean number of
times is between 6.68 times and 7.13 times.
8. How Often Do You Bathe? A Gallup poll conducted June 29 July 4, 1950, asked 1031
Americans, "How often do you bathe each week?" Results of the survey indicated that x =
3.7 and s = 2.3.
a. Construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean number of times Americans
bathed each week in 1950. (3.52, 3.88)
b. Interpret the interval. The estimated mean number of times Americans bathed each
week in 1950 is 3.7 times. A 95% confidence interval for the population mean number of
times is between 3.52 times and 3.88 times.
c. Compare these results to those of Problem 7. Were Americans bathing more in 1999
than in the 1950s? Yes, Americans were bathing more in 1999 than in 1950. It is
estimated that Americans bathed 3.2 times per week more in 1999 than in 1950 (6.9
3.7 = 3.2). Comparison of the two confidence intervals show convincing evidence of a
difference, as the two 99% confidence intervals do not overlap.
9. Listed below are measured amounts of lead (in micrograms per cubic meter) in the air. The
EPA has established an air quality standard for lead of 1.5. The measurements shown
below were recorded at Building 5 of the World Trade Center site on different days
immediately following the destruction caused by the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.
After the collapse of the two WTC buildings, there was considerable concern about the
quality of the air. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that the sample is from a
population with a mean greater than the EPA limit of 1.5 microgram per cubic meter.
5.4
.
1.10
0.42
0.73
0.48
1.10
b. Construct null and alternate hypotheses for a significance test to show the desired result.
H0: = 1.5
c. Sketch the sampling distribution specified by the null hypothesis. Be sure to label the
T=
x 0
(where 0 = 1.5 in this case).
s/ n
h. There is some value, tcrit, such that if the test statistic T equals or exceeds that value,
then we can recommend rejecting the null hypothesis at the indicated level of
significance. What is this value?
If = 0.05, we can compute tcrit as follows: TInterval: xbar=0, sx = (6), n = 6, C-level =
0.9 (this is due to the fact that we are interested in a one-tailed test, and the TInterval
uses a two-tailed value, so we have to double the (i.e. = 0.10, and confidence level =
1 0.1 = 0.9). Result: tcrit = 2.015
i.
j.
Based on the values of tcrit and T, should we reject H0 ? No, T does not exceed tcrit .
Is this p-value evidence against the null hypothesis? No. The p-value far exceeds the
value of = 0.05.
m. How can we check our work? Having put the data into L4 in our calculator, use T-Test,
Input: Data, 0 = 1.5, List: L4, : > 0, with results as follows:
T = 0.049 (checks)
p-value = 0.48 (checks)
n. Do the data appear normal? No, there is an outlier.
o. Was randomization used in this case? No. Note that even with the spike of the first
day, the average for 6 days is such that the measurements are not significantly higher
than 1.5 on the average.