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TABLE OF CONENTS
RISK SCORE ................................................................................................................................................................... 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................. 6
OVERVIEW ..................................................................................................................................................................... 8
MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO ............................................................................................................................. 11
Glance at Key Economic Indicator ..................................................................................................................................... 11
Tradeoff between Growth & Inflation ............................................................................................................................... 15
Currency Movement ................................................................................................................................................................. 16
REGULATORY SCENARIO ...................................................................................................................................... 17
Regulatory Framework .......................................................................................................................................................... 17
Government Regulations ....................................................................................................................................................... 17
Role of State Government ...................................................................................................................................................... 18
DEMAND SUPPLY SCENARIO ............................................................................................................................ 19
Current Scenario ....................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Indian Made Foreign Liquor............................................................................................................................................ 19
Beer ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Country Liquor ...................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Wine .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Demand Drivers ......................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Exports .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Imports.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
New Capacity Addition ........................................................................................................................................................... 27

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Future Growth Prospect ......................................................................................................................................................... 28


Key Risks to Growth ................................................................................................................................................................. 29
COMPETITIVE SCENARIO ...................................................................................................................................... 30
Nature of Industry .................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Competitive landscape ............................................................................................................................................................ 30
Key trends in Indian Liquor Industry ................................................................................................................................ 32
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE .................................................................................................................................. 34
Sales Growth ............................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Operating Cost ........................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Profitability ................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Ratio Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Debt Equity & Interest Coverage Ratio ....................................................................................................................... 37
Other Key Ratios ................................................................................................................................................................... 38

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2014 Dun & Bradstreet All rights reserved.


D&B and D-U-N-S are registered trademarks of Dun & Bradstreet.
All other product names and brand names are trade names, service marks, trademarks, or
registered trademarks of their respective owners.
Disclaimer
D&B has compiled this report using information from various sources. Although every effort has
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same cannot be guaranteed. D&B will not be responsible for the continued relevance of the
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RISK SCORE

Higher disposable income, increase in


consumer base due to increase in
young consumer entering legally
allowed drinking age as well as
increasing consumption among
women.

Prohibition drive undertaken by


key consuming states like Kerala
would impact growth in the sector.
Higher taxes imposed by state
governments is leading to an
increase in price for consumer.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Indian is third largest liquor market in the world in terms of volume. The sector is made up
for four segments: Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL), Beer, Wine, and Country Liquor.
Beer is the largest segment in terms of consumption volumes while IMFL is the largest in
terms of value.

Alcoholic beverage sector in India is subject to stringent regulations with restrictions in


productions, distribution, and retailing. Being a state subject tax rates and duties for
alcoholic beverages vary from state to state leading to a distortion in pricing

Level of restrictions and government interference in production, distribution, and retailing


varies from state to state. In certain state whole value chain is state controlled while in
certain states it is completely in the hands of private sector. Per estimates, over 70% of the
Indian alcoholic beverage industry is in the hands of parastatal agencies either at the
wholesale or the retail levels or both.

Indias favourable demographic profile (growing young & working population), rising
personal disposable income, changing lifestyle, increasing social acceptance has been
stimulating the growth of alcoholic beverages industry in India.

On the back of these favorable demand factors, revenue generated from the sector has
grown by a CAGR of ~15% during FY 2010-14 to reach INR 601 Bn. However per capita
consumption of various alcoholic beverages (excluding country liquor) is very low at 1.5
liters per annum as compared global average of 27 liters, suggesting further growth
potential.

Indian alcoholic beverage industry can be termed as consolidated with limited number of
players. High entry barriers due to stringent regulations and investments required to set up
distribution network has prevented the entry of smaller players. However growth potential of
Indian market is attracting global companies who are entering India through organic as well
as inorganic route.

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United Spirits Ltd, United Breweries Ltd, Tilaknagar Industries, and Radico Khaitan Ltd are
the key domestic players in IMFL, Beer and Country Liquor segments. Sula Vineyards,
Grovers Vineyards and Chateau Indage are the major players in wine segment.

Among multinational players, Belgium based Anheuser-Busch InBev, Netherland based


Heineken, UK based SABMiller Plc and Diageo plc and Denmark based Carlsberg etc also
have presence in India.

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OVERVIEW
India is the third largest market for liquor in terms of volume. The country has over 295 distilleries
scattered throughout the country with a combined annual installed capacity of 4,200 Mn liters.
Most of the licensed capacity is concentrated in three states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and
Tamil Nadu.
As per All India Distillers Association (AIDA), approximately 52% of the total alcohol produced is
for potable use i.e. for use in alcoholic beverages and balance 48% is used for industrial purpose.
Alcoholic Beverage sector can be broadly classified into four segments: Indian Made Foreign
Liquor (IMFL), Country Liquor, Wine, and Beer. Among these Beer is the largest segment in terms
of volume while IMFL is the largest segment in terms of value.

Sources: CMIE IAS, D&B Research

Indian Made Foreign Liquor


IMFL can be further divided into two broad segments: brown spirits and white spirits. The Indian
IMFL industry is predominantly a brown spirits market having a share of ~92% while remaining

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~8% is White Spirits. Whiskey is the largest selling brown spirit, accounting for 60% of total IMFL
market.
Extra Neutral Alcohol (ENA) manufactured from the rectified spirit is the key raw material used in
the manufacturing of IMFL. Majority of ENA produced in the country, is used in the production
process of IMFL, which again is prepared from two routes viz; Molasses Based & Grain Based.
However, with rising shortfall in molasses supply, grain based distillery is getting competitive.
Beer:
Beer is an alcoholic beverage made by fermentation of malted grains, usually barley, though
wheat, rice, corn and other cereals can also be used. Types of beer commonly consumed around
the world are:

Stout: It is a dark beer


with strong malt aroma
and brewed with slow
fermenting yeast.

Wheat Beer: It is highly


fermented beer with a
significant proportion of
wheat in it.

TYPES
OF
BEER
Ale: Ales are brewed at
comparatively warm
temperature, has fruity
aroma and are popular in
colder countries.

Lager: It is a beer with is


fermented at a very cool
temperature. It is best
suitable for hot climates.

Source: D&B Research

In India, strong beer with alochol content between 5% - 8% is the most widely consumed followed
by mild beer (alcohol content close to 5%). Strong beer account for ~81% of total beer market with
rest accounted by mild beer.
Currently per capital consumption of beer is estimated at just 1.5 liters per annum in India which is
significantly low as compared to global average of 27 liters and as compared to average of 80
liters in US, 74 liters in Europe and about 22 liters in China.

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Wine
Wine is an alcoholic beverage made from the fermentation of grapes with alcohol content between
8-22%. In India, currently there exists about 92 wineries, mostly located around the Pune-Nashik
belt and Bangalore. Nashik, situated in the state of Maharashtra is considered as the wine capital
of India. Of the total wineries, 36 wineries are in Nashik, 12 in Pune, 13 in Sangli, 5 in Solapur, 4
in Usmanabad, 3 in Buldhana and one in Latur.
Country Liquor
Country liquor (CL) is the cheapest form of alcoholic beverage, essentially made of rectified spirit
which is made by fermentation and rectification of molasses, a by-product of sugar.
Due to the increasing health hazards consumption of country liquor is banned in few of southern
states. This ban has resulted in country liquor losing its market share to other alcoholic
beverages.

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MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO
Glance at Key Economic Indicator
Indian economy continued to report below 5% growth in FY 2014. At global level, economic
growth performance in major economies continued to play a decisive role in deciding the growth
fortunes of developing countries including India. Indian economic performance was severely
impacted by the sustained weakness in USA, Euro Zone countries and China that are also Indias
major trading partners and source of foreign capital inflows. In CY 2013, world economic growth
slide further to 3% as compared to 3.1% in previous year while US GDP growth slowed down to
1.88% as compared to 2.8% in in previous year and Euro Zone as a whole reported a growth of
about 0.2%. Annual GDP growth of world fastest growing market i.e. China too slowed down from
the level of 10.4% in 2010 to 7.7% in 2013.
At domestic level, Indias investment and industrial growth prospects remained fragile and even
the services sector remained weak. Even though the Indian government took several steps to
arrest the volatility in foreign exchange rate and narrow down the current account deficit in FY
2014 but the growth momentum of the domestic economy faced unrelenting challenges.
Persistence of high consumer price inflation and interest rates, weakening performance of
services and industrial sector has let down all expectation of economic revival in the past fiscal.
Additionally, regulatory hurdles, administrative bureaucracy, and policy delay pertaining to land
acquisition process, obtaining license, and environmental clearance were further impediments to
growth. These factors dampened the countrys position at global level as well due to which, on
th

ease of doing business Index India ranks 134 amongst 184 countries and lowest amongst
BRICs peers. Lack of consensus on major economic reform and policy paralysis led to a declining
new-investment spending for the fourth consecutive year in row since FY 2011.

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Macro Economic Indicator


8.91%
8.59%
8.23%

6.69%

5.28%

4.47%

5.5%

4.74%

2.7%
2.88%

-0.1%
FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

GDP Growth Rate

1.10%
FY 2013

FY 2014 PE

FY 2015F

IIP Growth Rate

Source: CSO & D&B Forecast, (PE is Provisional Estimates)

As per provisional estimates on GDP number released on May 30

th

2014, Indias annual GDP

growth reported a marginal incremental growth of 0.3% over the previous year and grew at about
4.74% in FY 2014 as compared to 4.47% in FY 2013. Economic activity continued to exhibit
stagnancy on back of slowing industrial sector. Industrial sector growth as measured by the Index
of Industrial Production (IIP), registered a y-o-y decline of 0.1% during FY 2014.
As seen in the below chart, services sector registered maximum growth over the period FY 201014, followed by the agriculture sector and industrial sector.

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GDP (Factor Cost, Constant 2004-05 Prices) by Economic Activity


Agriculture (INR Bn)
6,610

7,178

7,538

7,645

Industry (INR Bn)


8,005

14,807

14,949

15,002

13,733
12,769

FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013 RE FY 2014 PE

FY 2010

FY 2011

25,782

28,274

32,227

FY 2013 RE FY 2014 PE

CAGR (FY 2010-14)

Services (INR Bn)


30,130

FY 2012

7.54%

34,482

6.19%
4.91%
4.11%

FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013 RE FY 2014 PE

Agriculture

Industry

Services

Over all GDP

Source: CMIE Outlook, RE is Revised Estimated, PE is Provisional Estimate

In FY 2014, services sectors contribution towards GDP stood at 60.1%, followed by industry
(26.1%) and agriculture (13.9%). Also, the share of services to economic output is increasing,
while that of agriculture and industry segment declined over the period FY 2012-13.
The annual growth rate of services sector, industry and agriculture sector stood at 7%, 0.35% and
4.17%, in FY 2014 as compared to 6.96% 0.96% and 1.42% respectively, registered in previous
fiscal.

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Yearly Q-o-Q change in Sectoral GDP (%)


7.2%

7.6%
6.9%

7.2%

7.2%
6.4%

6.3%

6.3%

6.3%

5.0%
4.0%

Agricuture

-0.4%

Industry

-0.2%

Q4: FY 2014

-0.4%

3.7%

Q3: FY 2014

1.6%

Q2: FY 2014

0.8%

Q1: FY 2014

-0.4%

2.6%

2.1%

Q4: FY 2013

1.7%

Q3: FY 2013

1.8%

Q2: FY 2013

Q1: FY 2013

1.8%
0.3%

Services

Source: CMIE Outlook

From quarterly trend, growth in agriculture sector expanded from sharply to 6.3% on sequential Qo-Q basis in Q4 FY 2014, while service sector economic output slowed down to 6.4% in last
quarter of FY 2014 from 7.2% in previous sequential quarter. Industry segment continued to report
a decline in Q4 FY 2014 on yearly q-o-q basis on the back of contracting economic output from
mining and quarrying and manufacturing segment in all four quarters (excluding Q2:FY 2014).
D&B expects economic growth to recover in FY 2015, albeit at moderate rate and grow at about
5.5%. With formation of a new and stable government, economic growth is likely to get impetus
from improved policy environment, early implementation of long pending reforms and revival of
large stalled projects.

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Tradeoff between Growth & Inflation

Source: Office of the Economic Advisor; RBI

Monetary authorities kept the interest rate unchanged during April 2012-Dec 2012 as the
inflationary pressure continued to loom over the economy that impacted the fresh investments and
economic growth in FY 2013. In order to revive investment and push liquidity in the economy, RBI
reduced the repo rate thrice during Jan 2013 till May 2013 by 25 basis point each time. However,
with revival of inflationary pressure the repo rate was hiked by 25 bps thrice since September
2013. The latest hike of 25 bps in repo rate was made Jan 28, 2014. Rise in interest rates has
adversely impacted the overall GDP growth on the back of increasing project financing cost for
corporate and deterring the demand growth. India Inc. has been demanding a rate cut to spur
investment and promote growth as the monthly WPI index which measure inflation has shown
some decline trend since November 2013. However, RBI kept the policy rate unchanged in its
latest monetary policy review in August 5

2014 against the industry expectation. Repo rate

currently stands at 8%.


CRR another monetary tool used by RBI to regulate money supply has been reduced four times
(each time by 25 basis point) since March 2012 in order to infuse the primary liquidity in banking
system and supports the GDP growth. With last 25 basis point cut on 29

th

Jan 2013, the CRR

currently stands at 4.0% and CRR too remained unchanged in latest policy review.

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Currency Movement
After a prolonged period of depreciation, the US dollar stabilized against Indian rupee in the range
of INR 59 60. Since exports account for close to 50% of total market the changes in currency
has a profound impact in the sector. Revenue from exports surged during FY 2013 as rupee
reached record lows. However, after hitting ~INR 68 against a dollar Indian rupee has scaled back
to the range of INR 59 60, which has limited the export growth.

Exchange Rate (INR per USD)

Inverse Scale
43.5

Trend Reversal : INR


Gaining Strength
Against USD

48.5
53.5

INR Appreciated
against USD

58.5

INR Depreciated
Against USD

63.5

01/Oct/14

01/Jul/14

01/Apr/14

01/Jan/14

01/Oct/13

01/Jul/13

01/Apr/13

01/Jan/13

01/Oct/12

01/Jul/12

01/Apr/12

01/Jan/12

01/Oct/11

01/Jul/11

01/Apr/11

01/Jan/11

01/Oct/10

01/Jul/10

01/Apr/10

68.5

Source: Ministry of Finance, Govt of India

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REGULATORY SCENARIO
Regulatory Framework
Indian liquor market is characterized by stringent regulations.Liquor is a State subject and hence
subject to laws in each state. Alcoholic beverages industry in India is regulated by the states and
not the centre. Intoxicating liquors are specifically covered by Entry 8 of the State List, and this
places all aspects including manufacture, possession, transport, purchase and sale of intoxicating
liquors within the sphere of the state only. Since alcoholic beverages are a state subject, each of
Indias 29 states and 6 union territories has their own rules & regulations and duties & taxes.This
means a company has to have seperate licenses and permissions to operate in each state.
Hence, there are very few players who have pan-India presence.
Independent Licenses are required to produce, bottle, store, distribute or retail all liquor products.
Licenses to produce and bottle are particularly scarce and contract manufacturing is a wellestablished market entry strategy. The alcoholic beverages in India is generally sold through
specialty shops which requires proper license issued by the state governments. Super and hyper
markets in some states have started selling alcoholic drinks such as beer and wine

Government Regulations
Highly regulated regime results in a lengthy process to obtain a license for the manufacturing,
distribution, and sale of alcoholic beverages. Movement of liquor between various states in India
is subject to multiple tax laws and many regulations, making sales between states very difficult.
The distribution channel of the industry is also regulated by the state government.
Distribution: All outlets (wholesalers, retailers, bars /restaurants, bonded warehouse operators
etc.) have to be licensed.
Advertising: Direct advertising of alcohol and alcohol-related products is banned and considered
illegal. Companies, however, advertise using surrogate products (like glasses, mineral water,
music items, fashion articles etc.) having identical brand names.
Though India allows 100% FDI for distillation and brewing of potable alcohol through the
automatic route, not many investors have turned up due to restrictions and taxes at the State
level.

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Role of State Government


In the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Delhi, wholesale and retail liquor business is under
government control. In Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand,
Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Bihar, state governments control the wholesale business while
retail trade is taken up by private players. Maharashtras liquor business, both wholesale as well
as retail is in private hands.
Tamil Nadu State Marketing Corporation (TASMAC), a company owned by the Government of
Tamil Nadu, and Kerala State Beverages Corporation Ltd (BEVCO), a company owned by the
Government of Kerala controls wholesale and retail vending of alcohol in Tamil Nadu and Kerala
respectively. These companies are known as parastatal agencies. As per estimates, over 70% of
the Indian alcoholic beverage industry is in the hands of parastatal agencies either at the
wholesale or the retail levels or both.
The newly formed government of Andhra Pradesh is also contemplating to take over the retail
sale of IMFL to have only government owned shops.
Alcohol revenue for state governments
Alcoholic beverage industry is a major revenue source for the state governments. Every year
excise duty / sales tax on the product is increased leading to higher tax inflow. In June 2014, Delhi
Government increased excise duty on light and strong beer from 120% to 170% and on IMFL from
170% to 225%. This ultimately resulted in 30% hike in Beer prices and ~ 20% hike in IMFL.
Further, state governments are increasingly relying on alcohol revenue which funds roughly onefifth of their budgets. With the exception of Gujarat, Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur, where
liquor is officially prohibited, alcohol revenue takes the second, third or fourth place in terms of
contributions to the States coffers. TASMACs revenue totalled INR 234 Bn while Bevco garnered
more than INR 80 Bn in FY 2014. Delhi government collected excise revenue of INR 32 Bn from
sale of IMFL, registering 10% Y-o-Y increase in FY 2014.

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DEMAND SUPPLY SCENARIO


Current Scenario
Indian Made Foreign Liquor
Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) account for one third of the total liquor consumption in India
and has been growing at a CAGR of more than 10% over the in the last decade. Within IMFL
segment brown spirits comprising whisky, brandy and dark rum account for 92% of the market, by
both volume and value while white spirits with gin and vodka having only 8% market share.
However the International trends are opposite to India where white spirits enjoys prominent
presence.
Production of IMFL reached 549 Mn liters in FY 2014 while consumption touched 538 Mn liters.
Overall production for IMFL segment is estimated to have witnessed a marginal growth of 2% on
an average during FY 2010-14. Apparent consumption also increased at a CAGR of 2% during
the same period. Since FY 2012 both production and consumption of IMFL has declined steadily.
Higher prices due to steady hike in sales tax has tempered demand to a certain extend forcing a
cut down in production.

Source: CMIE IAS

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Beer
Beer which has been one of the fastest growing and prominent segment in the Indian alcohol
Industry witnessed decline in production as well as consumption after FY 2011. Consumption of
beer has fallen more sharply as compared to IMFL segments on account of price hikes enforced
by various state governments. Annual production and consumption of beer in India reached 960
Mn liters and 938 Mn liters respectively.

Source: CMIE IAS

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Country Liquor
The production of country liquor has declined at a rate of 1% over the period FY 2010-14 as a
result of the ban imposed in southern states and increasing preferences towards other beverages.
Annual production of country liquor reached close to 154 Mn liters in FY 2014.

Source: CMIE IAS

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Wine
Indian wine industry is still nascent when compared with global wine industry. However, the
domestic wine consumption is witnessing a robust growth as companies and wine boards in
Karnataka and Maharashtra are undertaking various measures to promote a wine drinking culture
in the country.
Despite decline in production and consumption trends across major alcohol beverage segments,
overall market size of the industry is estimated to have grown at a CAGR of 15% to reach INR
601Bn during FY 2014. The steady growth in revenue is accounted for by the periodical increase
in retail prices and by increasing alcohol consumption in the state. The growth is also driven by
product innovation and value added product segment by major companies in the industry.

Market Size of Indian Alcoholic Beverages Industry (INR Bn)


572

601

520

426
345

FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013

FY 2014

Source: D&B Research

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Demand Drivers

KEY DEMAND DRIVERS


In India alcohol consumption has been highest among men with male
population in the working group of 25 59 being the largest consumers.

Growth in

India is in the midst of a demographic shift wherein the population (including

Existing
Consumer Base

both male & female) in working age group of 25 59 is becoming the


largest segment. This would automatically increase the traditional consumer
base.
Consumption among women (primarily in cities) is on the rise, adding a new

Increasing

class of consumers. Primary reason behind this trend is increasing personal

Consumption

freedom enjoyed by women as a result of improved access to education

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among Women

and employment. Higher levels of personal freedom along with exposure to


lifestyle in advanced economies have changed the consumption patterns
among women.
Wine boards in Karnataka and Maharashtra are undertaking various

Efforts to develop
wine culture

measures to promote a wine drinking culture in the country. Wine


companies are also aggressively exploring options such as wine tours, wine
tasting festivals and increasing distribution network in order to generate and
develop wine drinking culture in India
Indians are joining the work force sooner than in the past and together with

Changing lifestyle

changing lifestyles, dismantling of social barriers to consumption of

& higher

alcoholic products and the change in mind sets living for today compared

disposable

to the earlier generation which believed in saving for later years. Further

income

disposable income is witnessing an increase as growth in service sector


has created large number of jobs pushing the overall income higher.

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Exports
Exports of beer have grown at a CAGR of 29% while that of IMFL increased at a rate of 28% over
the period FY 2010-14. Higher export growth in FY2014 has been beneficial for the sector on
account of higher export realizations due to steep rupee depreciation. UAE accounted for 20%
exports followed by Ghana with a share of 12% in FY 2014. The top five countries altogether
accounted for 55% of exports of alcoholic beverages.
Exports of Alcoholic Beverages
Major Export Partners (FY 2014)

Alcoholic Beverages - Exports (Rs Mn)


Beer

IMFL
UAE 20%

Others 45%
Ghana 12%

FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013

11,360

1,925

8,949

1,739

7,167

1,311

847

5,111

706

4,198

Angola 10%

FY 2014

Nigeria 6%

Singapore
7%

Source: Ministry of Commerce

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Imports
While domestic demand during FY 2010-14 remain muted, the demand for imported brands has
remained robust during most of the period. Imports of beer increased at a CAGR of 32% while
that of IMFL increased at a rate of 41% over the period FY 2010-14. For India, UK is the largest
import source of alcoholic beverages, accounting for ~43% of the countrys total import of
alcoholic beverages. The next four countries Nepal, USA, France, and Brazil together accounted
for ~37% share in alcoholic beverages imports to India.
Imports of Alcoholic Beverages
Major Import Partners (FY 2014)

Alcoholic Beverages - Imports (Rs Mn)


Beer

IMFL

Others 20%

UK 43%

Brazil 4%
France 6%

280

15,779

237

12,882

177

9,493

150

6,085

93

3,988

USA 11%

Nepal 16%
FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013

FY 2014

Source: Ministry of Commerce

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New Capacity Addition


The industry is capital intensive due to complex manufacturing process and the need to comply
the requisite sophistication and hygiene standards. In the fiscal year 2014, fourteen new projects
entailing investment worth INR 12 Bn were announced. Though announcement of new
investments declined from FY 2010 to FY 2012, it picked up again in FY 2013 and FY 14
exhibiting confidence in the growth prospects of the industry. Thirty projects worth INR 22 Bn
were under implementation in FY 2014.
INVESTMENT TREND IN ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES SECTOR
Projects under Implementation

Projects Announced in the Sector


20.0

14

16 40.0

33

32

30
27

12

15.0

27

28

12 30.0

10
9

10.0

35

21
8

14

5.0

4
18.5

7.9

4.3

8.9

12.3

FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013

FY 2014

0.0

Investment Value (INR Bn)

20.0

No of Projects

10.0

7
30.1

34.5

17.4

19.8

22.5

FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013

FY 2014

0.0

Investment Value (INR Bn)

No of Projects

Source: CMIE Industry Outlook

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Future Growth Prospect


Indian alcoholic beverages industry is well poised to capitalise on the opportunity offered by the
low per capita consumption of alcohol coupled with other key demand drivers such as a young
demographic population. While volume trends in alcohol are expected to remain muted, the
growth in market is largely expected to be driven by improved value proposition and focus on
premium brands by major players. D&B expects the Indian alcohol beverage market to grow by
8% during FY 2014-17 to cross INR 750 Bn in FY 2017.

Projected Market Size of Indian Alcoholic Beverages Industry


(INR Bn)
750
682
601

FY 2014

631

FY 2015

FY 2016

FY 2017

Source: D&B Research

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Key Risks to Growth


High Working Capital Requirement
The industry is plagued by high working capital requirement. Economies of scale are limited as all
states have to be treated as different markets. Local sourcing and manufacturing requirements
make it an inventory heavy business model and improvement in working capital is an ambitious
target, which in addition is subject to the whims of the state governments as well as the varying
financial requirements of vendors.
Prohibition Drive
Governments have started recognizing health hazards related to alcohol consumption. This is
evident from Kerala governments decision to achieve 100% prohibition over the next 10 years.
The government is even ready to lose annual INR 80 Bn in revenues from the alcohol beverages
as it is confident that the loss to society in terms of health ruin and manpower loss is much higher
than the revenue loss. This decision if implemented with rigor will result in huge loss for the
industry as Kerala ranks amongst the top alcohol consuming states. Prohibition drives, if
implemented by others states could be disastrous for the industry.
Increasing Prices
Alcohol is one of the key revenue earners for large number of state government. Although alcohol
consumption has moderated in the past year, it was growing strong in prior years. Sustain
demand increase has led government to increase sales tax and other related duties.
Manufacturers have opted to pass on this price hike to consumers leading to increase in prices.

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COMPETITIVE SCENARIO
Nature of Industry
The alcoholic beverages industry is fairly organised with limited number of players on account of
heavy initial investment involved in form of obtaining license and other excise duty and taxes,
however industry faces high competition amongst different brands. Region wise, the four Southern
States of Andhra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala represent more than half of the IMFL & Beer
consumption.

Competitive landscape
United Spirits Ltd (USL) is the leading player in IMFL segment while United Breweries Ltd (UBL)
leads the beer segment. USL accounts for 14% of the overall alcoholic beverages market while
UBL corners 7% of the market. In wine segment, Sula Vineyards, Grovers Vineyards are leading
players.Global majors such as Belgium based Anheuser-Busch InBev, Netherland based
Heineken, UK based SABMiller Plc and Diageo plc, Denmark based Carlsberg etc also have
presence in India.

Key Players in The Sector


Product

Key Players

Leading Brands

Segment
United

Spirits

Khaitan Ltd,
Diageo,

Ltd,

Radico

Pernod Ricard,

Mount

Shivalik

Breweries Ltd., Globus Spirits


IMFL

McDowells, VSOP
Antiquity Blue, Bagpiper Whisky, Royal
Challenge,

Signature

Mcdowells

No.1

Celebration

Ltd. Tilaknagar Industries Ltd,


Romanov,Vladivar, White mischief, Country
Club,

Aristocrate

(AC),

White

House,

Mansion House
Castle Club etc
Country Liquor

G M Breweries Ltd, Mount

G.M. Santra, G.M. Doctor, G.M. Limbu

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Shivalik

Breweries

Ltd.,

Pani, G.M Dilbahar Saunf

Rangar Breweries Ltd. Lords


Distillery Ltd.

Wine

Indage Vintners Ltd., Grover

La Reserve, Chateau Indage, Grover, Sula,

Vineyards Ltd., Four Seasons

Heritage Port, Vinsura Wines, Nine hills,

Wines Ltd. (a United Breweries

Chateau dOri

Ltd. company)

Beer

United Breweries Ltd., Skol Old

Kingfisher

Monk Super Strong Breweries

Kingfisher Ultra, Kingfisher Red, London

Ltd., Hindustan Breweries &

Pilsner,

Bottling

Lager

Ltd.,

Industries

Lilasons

Ltd.,

Blossom

Blue,

Kingfisher

Heineken,

Premium,

Golden

Eagle

Golden Eagle Deluxe Premium,

Industries Ltd, Mohan Meakin


Ltd.

Mount

Breweries

Shivalik
Ltd,

Superior

Industries Ltd.

Lager, Gold Lager Beer (Herbal Beer)


Golden Eagle Super Strong Beer
Gymkhana Premium Lager

Source: D&B Research

Inorganic growth through M&As and strategic alliances seems to be characteristic of the industry,
with large players acquiring smaller ones to increase their market share, distribution reach, brands
and expand the existing product portfolio. The industry is also witnessing gradual consolidation
across segments with foreign players trying to enter the Indian alcohol beverage market. Key
deals that has happened in the industry include:

World's largest spirits maker Diageo has acquired ~54.8% stake in USL with the help of
an open offer for 26% shares of USL in 2014. Heineken also holds 39% stake in United
Breweries.

Several PE firms are also expressing interest in investing in companies such as Allied
Blenders and Distillers Pvt. Ltd (ABD) and Radico Khaitan Ltd.

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Tilaknagar Industries acquired liquor business of IFB Agro Industries Ltd for an
undisclosed amount in March 2014. The company also plans to acquire Tamil Nadu
based IMFL maker Imperial Spirits. Tilaknagar Industries Ltd, owns the Indian rights to
manufacture and sell the popular Mansion House brandy brand, a product equally owned
by ABD and Dutch liquor maker Herman Jansen. ABD is also targeting to acquire stake in
Tilaknagar Industries.

Financial Performance of Major Companies in the Segment


Company

Sales % Change over previous

Operating Profit & % Change

fiscal

over previous fiscal

United Spirits

INR 84.4 Bn ( 3.0%)

INR 11.4 Bn ( 7.6%)

United Breweries

INR 41.5 Bn ( 8.5%)

INR 6.2 Bn ( 13.1%)

INR 13.9 Bn ( 13.3%)

INR 2.7 Bn ( 19.3%)

Jagatjit Industries

INR 8.9 Bn ( 3.8%)

INR 0.1 Bn ( 88.5%)

Tilaknagar Industries

INR 5.9 Bn ( 7.4%)

INR 1.5 Bn ( 1.0%)

Radico Khaitan

Source: CMIE Prowess

Key trends in Indian Liquor Industry


Currently, though the molasses based IMFL/spirits production account for 90% of the total IMFL
production, the IMFL production through grain based is gaining momentum. Going forward the
share of grain based ENA is going to increase due following reasons:

To meet the international standard: Grain-based spirits are considered superior in


quality as these posses less sulphur content in comparison to molasses-based spirit
which is harmful for human brain. Most of the developed nations use grain based ENA in

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preparation of portable alcoholic beverages whereas as molasses based ENA are used in
manufacturing of industrial alcohol. Use of grain based spirit is expected to spurt in order
to meet the international standard of IMFL manufacturing.

Unpredictable Molasses Prices: Sugarcane is a high water consumption crop and


drought conditions in a high sugarcane producing state like Maharashtra reduces the
availability of molasses for the alcoholic beverages industry, leading to some serious cost
increases. Due to erratic nature of molasses, most of the distilleries are looking forward to
grain based spirit as alternative to hedge against the erratic molasses prices which in turn
depend upon sugar prices.

High Prices of ENA: Extra Neutral Alcohol (ENA) or Ethanol, a key raw material for spirit
manufacturing production follows a similar a cyclical pattern shown by molasses
production which in turn follows a sugarcane cycle. Past few years have consistently
witnessed rise in the prices of this key ingredient as a result of a step-up in the Ethanol
Blending Program for petrol and an unfairly remunerative price fixed by the Govt. for this
purpose. This has taken the prices of ENA for the alcoholic beverage industry to a
significantly higher level, thereby putting pressure on margins.

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FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Sales Growth
Sales growth of the companies in sample set declined from FY 2011 to 13 and increased again
FY 2014. Decline in sales growth is attributable to muted growth of the industry over the period.
One of the major constituent of the sample set, United Breweries Ltd had amalgamated three
companies Associated Breweries & Distilleries Limited (ABDL), Millennium Alcobev Private
Limited (MAPL), and Empee Breweries Limited (EBL) with itself in FY 2011. This led to sudden
jump of 56 % in sales growth in FY 2011 for the company and 37% for the sample set. Excluding
the effect of amalgamation, like for like sales growth has been lower than the existing one for FY
2011.

Y-o-Y Change in Revenue


40%

37%

35%
30%
25%
19%
20%
15%
7%

10%

5%

5%
0%
FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013

FY 2014

Source: CMIE Prowess, D&B Research, Sample 11 Companies

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Operating Cost
Operating Cost Margins
Year

Raw Material

Power & Fuel

Salary & Wage

SGA

Interest

Expenses

Expense

FY 2010

26.7%

3.5%

5.0%

19.1%

3.9%

FY 2011

24.7%

4.1%

4.8%

20.8%

3.0%

FY 2012

25.9%

4.4%

4.9%

19.5%

3.7%

FY 2013

25.4%

4.5%

5.4%

19.8%

3.5%

FY 2014

25.7%

3.5%

5.6%

20.6%

3.6%

Source: CMIE Prowess, D&B Research, Sample 11 Companies

Raw material accounts for the highest share of costs followed by SGA expenses. ENA produced
from molasses and other grains is the key input used in the IMFL industry, barley for beer and
grapes for wine. Prices of these items remained higher during the period.
SGA expenses accounting for the second largest share in cost structure. Companies face a ban
on advertising alcoholic products including beer in India. Hence, as a surrogate, the companies
brand their products under disguise of mineral water, soda, music CDs etc and advertise them.
Such indirect advertising has been proved costly for the industry. Companies also have to invest
substantial resources in selling and distribution, packaging and transport.
Salary & Wage expenses have also increased over the period on account of inflationary pressure
and moderating sales growth. Interest costs have varied within a comfortable range of 1% over
the period under consideration.

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Profitability
Profitability margin in the sample declined due to a mix of moderate sales growth and increase in
raw material, SGA, as well as interest expenses. Companies in the sample set Globus Spirits,
Jagatjit Industries, Pioneer Distilleries and Tilaknagar Industries have registered decline in
profitability. However profitability of major companies such as United Breweries and Radico
Khaitan have remained at same level or increased in the last four years.
PROFITABILITY MARGINS

Operating Profit Margin

Net Profit Margin

15.4%

5.2%

14.9%

FY 2010

FY 2011

5.3%
4.3%

14.9%

FY 2012

4.4%
4.0%

14.3%

14.3%

FY 2013

FY 2014

FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013

Source: CMIE Prowess, D&B Research, Sample 11 Companies

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FY 2014

Ratio Analysis
Debt Equity & Interest Coverage Ratio
Debt of the companies in the sample set increased at a CAGR of 13.3% while net worth increased
at a CAGR of 12.6% over the period FY 2010-14. As increase in networth was higher than that in
debt in initial years, it led to decline of debt-equity ratio till FY 2012. After that increase in debts of
major constituents, United Breweries and Tilaknagar Industries led to increase in debt equity ratio.
Interest coverage ratio increased in FY 2011 due to 33% increase in profits as compared to 7%
increase in interest expenses. The ratio declined again in FY 2012 due to 45% increase in interest
expenses as compared to 19% increase in profits.
Debt-Equity Ratio
0.98

Interest Coverage Ratio


0.95

0.96

6.00
4.89

0.93

5.00

0.93

3.95

4.04

4.08

3.97

FY 2012

FY 2013

FY 2014

4.00
0.88

0.85

3.00

0.83
0.83

2.00

0.78

1.00

0.73

0.00
FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013

FY 2014

FY 2010

FY 2011

Source: CMIE Prowess, D&B Research, Sample 11 Companies

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Other Key Ratios

Sample: 11 Companies (Source: CMIE Prowess)


Time Period: FY 2012,13 and 14
Ratios

Average Value

Gross Margin
Net Margin

64.9%
4.2%

Current Ratio

1.79

Quick Ratio

1.20

Account Receivables Days

80

Inventory Days

57

Account Payable Days

41

RONW

9.5%

ROA

12.2%

ROCE

17.0%

Long Debt-Equity
Net worth to Total Liabilities

0.92
37.4%

Interest Coverage Ratio

4.03

Fixed Asset Turnover

2.22

Asset Turnover

0.84

WC Turnover Ratio

7.32

Inventory Turnover

7.43

Fixed Assets to Net worth

1.01

Sales to Capital Employed

1.17

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Registered Office

Bangalore

Ahmedabad

ICC Chambers,
Saki Vihar Road, Powai,
Mumbai - 400 072
Tel: +91-22 2857 4190/92/94,
6676 5555
Fax: +91-22-2857 2060
Email: dbindia@vsnl.com
URL: www.dnb.com

# 7/2 Gajanana Towers,


st
1 Floor, Anna Swamy Mudaliar Street
Opposite Ulsoor Lake,
Bangalore 560042
Tel:+91-080-3316 / 3500
Fax: +91-080-3316 3540
Email: dnbblr@mail.dnb.co.in

001, Samruddhi, Opp.Old High


Court,
Income Tax, Ashram Road,
Ahmedabad 380 014
Tel: +91-079-27540558 / 27540559
Fax: +91-079-27540560
Email: dnbahd@mail.dnb.co.in

New Delhi Office

Kolkata

FB-01,NSIC STP Centre, NSIC


Bhawan,
Okhla Industrial Estate,
New Delhi 110 020
Tel: +91-11-4149 7900/01/
Fax: +91-11-4149 7902
Email: dbdelhi@mail.dnb.co.in
Chennai

166 B, S.P. Mukherjee Road,


Merlin Links,Unit 3E, 3rd Floor,
Kolkata 700 026
Tel: +91-33-24650204
Fax: +91-33-2465 0205
Email: dbkolkata@mail.dnb.co.in

Hyderabad

New no: 28, Old no: 195


st
1 Floor, North Usman Road
T,Nagar
Chennai 600 017
Tel: +91-44- 2814 2265/ 4289
7602/ 2814 2275
Fax: +91-44-2814 2285
Email: dbmadras@mail.dnb.co.in

th

504, 5 Floor
Babukhans Millennium Center
6-3-1099/1100, Somajiguda
Hyderabad 500 004
Tel: +91-40-6662 4102 / 6651 4102
Fax: +91-40-6661 9358
Email:dnbhyd@mail.dnb.co.in

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