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GT
Total Cost (Energy + Capacity)
CT
CC L
CO A
Edward Kee
Vice President
The nature of this panel means that I will present a few slides in a few minutes
Disclaimer
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 111
Nuclear energy is valuable
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 222
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Coal Gas Nuclear
Source: NEI
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 333
Marginal costs of nuclear energy are even lower, perhaps equal to zero
Short-run marginal costs are the costs that change due to a small change in output for a short
time period – for nuclear power plants, this is at or close to zero
If carbon costs were included in fossil power plant costs, nuclear energy would be even more
competitive
Of course, production costs for gas generation are down this year. If there is a real shale-
based gas bubble, there is a possibility of a return to the low and stable gas prices prior to
2000, but this seems unlikely.
Nuclear plants have long operating life
Wind
CT
CCGT
Nuclear
0 20 40 60 80
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 444
The long operating life of nuclear power plants is also a positive attribute.
Nuclear units will have a long period of operation, much of it after capital recovery is
completed
Cash flows more than about 25 years into the future add little to NPV using any reasonable
discount rates
However, a 25-year old nuclear plant is a valuable and profitable asset (whether for
shareholders of a non-regulated company or ratepayers of a regulated utility)
A key challenge for the nuclear industry is how to make today’s shareholders/ratepayers
happy about investing today’s dollars in new nuclear projects, when the upside is 25 years or
more into the future
This combination of high capital costs and a very long stream of benefits is one reason for a
government role; Public utility regulators may make long-term planning decisions and
governments often do so
How do we get more nuclear energy?
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 555
The first way to get more nuclear energy is to work existing nuclear plants harder and longer
The second way to get more nuclear energy is to build new units - not so easy!
Economics of new nuclear plants
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 666
Also, the degree of regulatory oversight of nuclear projects and facilities (i.e., NRC) is much
higher than other commercial power plant technologies. This raises cost and risk for
developers, especially during the long development and construction phase when significant
capital has been spent but before there is any revenue or profits
Long lead time
PV
CT
Wind
CCGT
Nuclear
0 4 8 12
Development Construction
Source: EIA 2009 Annual Energy Outlook input assumptions for construction (lead time); development period is estimate
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 777
5,000
4,000
$ / kWe
3,000
2,000
1,000
NUCLEAR
Wind
IGCC
IGCC w/CCS
PV
Hydro
Wind Offshore
Biomass
Fuel Cells
Conv. Coal
CCGT w/ CCS
CT
CCGT
Geothermal
Solar Thermal
Source: EIA 2009 Annual Energy Outlook; 2008 overnight cost including contingency in 2007 $/kW; nuclear increased from $3,318 to $4,000
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 888
Nuclear is among the most capital intensive technologies, per unit of capacity output
However, nuclear life-cycle costs in $/kWh are relatively low, a result of nuclear base load
operation (high capacity factor due to very low marginal cost) and long operating life
While nuclear overnight capital cost is not as high as some options (e.g., PV and fuel cells), it
is significantly higher than CT, CCGT and conventional coal options
$4,000/kWe used in this chart is only an estimate of overnight costs
Until there is more experience with completed and operational nuclear plants, nuclear capital
costs will be less certain than the capital costs of other generation technologies with
significant completed project experience
First Wave projects face more hurdles
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 999
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 10
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EPAct of 2005 provides incentives for a limited number of First Wave projects
DOE Loan Guarantees are a key incentive, even though some see the program as moving
slowly and the important subsidy cost issue remains open
When First Wave projects are completed and placed in commercial operation, industry
confidence and experience will be higher and industry infrastructure/ supply chain will have
been established
Second Wave projects (benefiting from First Wave efforts) may not need these incentives
EPAct of 2005 benefits were defined before recent nuclear capital cost estimates
With higher nuclear capital costs and no carbon benefits, there are two large issues:
1. Will the EPAct incentives be enough for the First Wave?
2. Will the Second Wave need incentives to be developed?
Different approaches to new nuclear
Government projects
–Fast and clear commitment
–Government finance
–Fewer parties - lower transaction costs
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 11
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NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 12
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All existing nuclear plants were built with some degree of government (or public) support.
In the US, this was mostly through regulated utility investments; in other countries, nuclear
plants were typically built by government utilities
Electricity sector reform and restructuring transformed some existing nuclear assets into
unregulated market assets
Unregulated nuclear companies are doing well in the US, but there is an open question about
whether a new nuclear power plant can be developed as an unregulated power project in a
restructured electricity market environment.
If there is a role for new nuclear in a clean electricity sector, governments may be required to
act if the market fails to deliver nuclear investment.
I think that markets are a good thing, but I also see a role for government in some things, one
of which might be nuclear power.
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Edward Kee
Vice President
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NERA Economic Consulting
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– the next generation
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© Copyright 2009 National Economic Research Associates, Inc. All rights reserved.
NERA Economic Consulting – Edward Kee – Nuclear Power International – 8 Dec 2009 8 Dec 2009 13
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I provide strategic advice to companies and governments on issues related to the nuclear and
electricity industries. I also provide testimony as an expert witness on nuclear and electricity
industry issues.
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