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You are here: Home > Collections > Hdfc Bank

HDFC Bank

Apr 7, 2003, 12.41am IST

Tw eet

Recommend

Mortgage Wait - Revising Earnings and Raising Price Target: SSB Mortgage foray with HDFC still not
finalised - hold-up mainly over pricing issues.
Management sees September 2003 as the cut-off for starting the business (on its own, if no resolution with
HDFC by then)

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* Broad contours of arrangement are in place. Both managements also confident of early resolution - HDFC
expects it by the time of its results (mid-May)
* Mortgages should bolster retail asset growth, and with life insurance distribution now in place, will complete
HDFC Bank's retail asset and distribution suite
* The 50bp reduction in the savings account rate is a positive, and should support 300bp-plus margins. While
retail assets remain under pricing pressure, some stability is visible in corporate yields

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Concor, HDFC Bank

* We are cutting earnings estimates over FY03E-05E to adjust for lower trading gains, slightly lower margins
and higher costs - this is largely offset by higher fee income growth
* We are raising our target price to Rs280 (from Rs240), now based on 3x FY04E P/BV instead of FY03E.
Our revised target price is also based on our revised EVA-based fair value of Rs275, which incorporates a
now lower risk-free rate, and stronger fee growth estimates
* We are maintaining our In-Line, Low Risk (2L)rating , relative to our BSE Sensex target of 3825.
Valuation

IN-DEPTH COVERAGE

WE are raising our target price for HDFC Bank to Rs 280, from Rs 240. The target is based on 3x FY04E
BV, which is at the upper end of the current trading band. We believe HDFC Bank should be able to generate
a premium over its current trading levels as it sustains asset growth, consolidates its distribution, leverages
off its capital and stabilises its business mix with a rising mix of retail.

Hdfc Bank

Risks

Octob er 20, 2007

ITS high valuation is its biggest risk. Any negative news on asset quality, management, or the emergence of
an equally profitable and credible management would raise questions on its valuations.
Outlook and recommendation
Business outlook of HDFC Bank remains very positive, and the expected mortgage foray should open up
another growth opportunity. Nearer term, however, high valuations and some uncertainty in its relationship
with its parent should keep stock in line with our expected upside from the target upside on the broader
Indian market (BSE Sensex target of 3825). Therefore, we are maintaining our In-Line, Low Risk (2L)
recommendation.

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