OTC 21076

Changing the Game Bit by Bit

Bob Fryklund, IHS CERA, and Jim Demarest, Noble Energy

Copyright 2010, Offshore Technology Conference

This paper was prepared for presentation at the 2010 Offshore Technology Conference held in Houston, Texas, USA, 36 May 2010.
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Background
Exploration is one of the pillars of supply and is perhaps the most storied of them due to the risks, with images
of remote harsh areas, fortunes won and lost and geoscientists socuring across the globe in search of the next
big play. Yet due to these same risks, when commodity prices drop, it is the first to suffer budget cuts.
A historical review of discoveries shows the peak of oil discoveries was in the mid 60s and gas the mid 70s.
Since then exploration has yielded an average of almost 13 Bbo per year, with a recent uptip in 2008 to 15 Bbo
thanks mostly to deepwater. Giants, those fields greater than 1 Billion barrels equivalent and the holy grail of the
exploration hunt, have until recently averaged only around 12 per decade or a little more than one per year. The
last two years has seen at least 4 per year. Much of this can be attributed to the opening of several new huge
hydrocarbon provinces- Brazils subsalt, West Africas Ivorian Basin Maghony trend, the US GOM Lower Tertiary
and Kurdistan Iraqs Zagros Foldbelt. Surprisingly around 40 % of the giants are still coming from onshore.
A recent IHS CERA report shows that exploration will have to contribute some 20 mmb/d of production in 2030 to
meet growing demand. This panel will look at the future of exploration and what obstacles we face towards
meeting the future targets for exploration.

Key Topics
Amongst the topics to be discussed will be:

Where are the next new petroleum provinces or plays that will change the game ?
Has the unconventional revolution changed conventional exploration thinking ?
Are we investing enough to meet the goal ?
Access to opportunities has changed so how do you play the new game ?
Have we reached a technology plateau ?
What area would benefit the most from a technology break through?
What tools do we need ?
Are we making progress in solving the great crew change ?
Will government policy and legislation make it impossible ?

OTC 21076

Panelists

Larry Archibald, SVP Exploration and Business Development ConocoPhillips

Jim Farnsworth, President, Cobalt International
Robert Hobbs, CEO, TGS
Satish Pai, VP OFS Schlumberger
Steve Thurston, VP Global Deepwater Chevron
VP, Large Independent,to be confirmed

Moderators
Bob Fryklund, VP Research, IHS CERA
Jim Demarest, Direcotr INternation New Ventures, NOBLE Energy

Bios

Larry Archibald

Larry E. Archibald is senior vice president of Exploration and Business Development for
ConocoPhillips. Archibald joined the company in Houston in March 2008 as vice president
for Exploration for ConocoPhillips. In December 2009, he joined the company's
management committee as senior vice president of Exploration and Business
Development. Prior to joining ConocoPhillips, Archibald was the vice president of Russia
offshore exploration for BP. Between 1999 and 2006, he held various other exploration
management roles with BP including leadership of programs covering the Gulf of Mexico
Shelf, Norway, Angola, and worldwide new ventures. In addition to his many exploration
assignments, Archibald has held positions in corporate and exploration planning in BP and
in Amoco. He started his career as a geologist with Amoco in Denver in 1982 where he
worked many of the Rocky Mountain Basins as well as Alaska's North Slope. During the
'90s, he worked for Amoco in Houston on a number of different international exploration
programs. Archibald earned a bachelor's degree in geology from Colgate University in 1979,
an M.S. degree in geosciences from the University of Arizona in 1982 and an MBA from
Regis College in 1986.

James W. Farnsworth has been our Chief Exploration Officer since our inception in
November 2005. Mr. Farnsworth has had more than 25 years of experience in the oil and
gas industry. From 2003 to 2005, Mr. Farnsworth held the position of Vice President of
World-Wide Exploration and Technology, at BP, a global energy company, and was
responsible for BPs global exploration business inclusive of North America, West Africa,
North Africa, South America, Russia and the Far East. His prior positions at BP from 1983 to
2003, include: Vice President of North America Exploration; Vice President of Gulf of Mexico
Exploration; Exploration Manager for Alaska; Deepwater Gulf of Mexico Production Manager

Jim Farnsworth

for Non-operated Fields. Mr. Farnsworth has a B.S. degree in Geology from Indiana
University and an M.S. degree in Geophysics from Western Michigan University.

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Robert joined TGS in 2008 as Chief Operating Officer and became Chief Executive Officer in
2009. Prior to joining TGS, Robert was Manager, Worldwide Geoscience with Marathon Oil
Company. Earlier in his career, Robert spent nine years with Veritas DGC in a wide range of
roles including President & Managing Director of the company's wholly owned UK
subsidiary, where he was responsible for all product lines in the Europe, Africa, Middle East,
and former Soviet Union region. He also worked ten years as both a geologist and a

Robert Hobbs

geophysicist with ARCO Oil and Gas, Exxon, and Union Texas Petroleum. He holds a M.Sc.
degree in Geology from the University of Southern California.

Satish Pai, Vice President, Operations, Oilfield Services, since May 2008, President Europe
Africa & Caspian, March 2006 to May 2008; and Vice President Oilfield Technologies, March
2002 to March 2006; President Schlumberger Information Solutions, January 2001 to March
2002; and President IndigoPool.Com, April 2000 to January 2001.

Satish Pai

Steve Thurston

Stephen P. Thurston (Steve), a native of Denver, Colorado, has a masters degree in

geology from the University of Washington, and is currently Vice President of Chevron North
America Exploration and Production Company in charge of the Deepwater Exploration and
Projects Strategic Business Unit, responsible for all of Chevrons exploration and project
development work in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico.
Steve has held a variety of leadership positions throughout his career with Chevron since
1982, including Exploration Supervisor for all of Californias Coastal Basins, Exploration
Supervisor for the Gulf of Mexico Shelf, and Profit Center Manager for the Eastern Gulf of
Mexico. More recently Steve has served as Country Manager for Chevron upstream in Brazil
and as General Manager of Strategic Planning for Chevron Corporation before starting his
current assignment on January 1st 2008.

OTC 21076

Bob Fryklund

James Demarest

Bob Fryklund brings 30 years of industry experience to his role as Vice President of IHS
CERA Upstream Research. Based in the companys Houston office, Bobs focus is on
global upstream strategic leadership and opportunity access and assessment. Prior to
joining IHS, Bob served as Libya President and Brazil Country Manager for ConocoPhillips.
He also has held various leadership positions with British Borneo, Union Texas and
Amerada Hess. Bob is a member of the Houston Geological Society and the American
Association of Petroleum Geologists, and has published numerous articles in three
languages. He is a recognized expert on Upstream Oil and Gas, frequently speaks at key
industry meetings, such as, World Economic Forum, CERA WEEK, Pacesetters, OTC,
AAPG and a established media consultant/ source, both in print and television. He serves
on or has served on several boards and executive committees, including the IPAA (
Independent Producers Assoc. of America),IBP (a Brazilian oil and gas association), IEA (
International Energy Agency), the Libyan-U.S. Council (a bilateral trade association), and
American School of Tripoli. He earned an AB from Hamilton College in Clinton, NY, in 1980,
and has completed advanced studies in business and geology from the University of
Houston and the University of Tulsa respectively. He also holds an advanced certificate in
management.

Jim Demarest is the Director of International Exploration for Noble Energy Inc. Based in the
companys Houston Headquarters, Jim is responsible for all exploration outside North
America including ongoing and new venture activities. During Jims 29 years in the oil
patch, he has worked for Exxon Research, Santa Fe Energy, Devon Energy, Petrochina and
Burlington Resources with assignments living in Norway, Indonesia, Midland and Houston.
During this career, Jim has focused on technical and business leadership in both exploitation
and exploration activities touching every continent and in many different cultures. In 2000
Jim was General Vice Chairman of the AAPG/IPA international conference in Bali,
Indonesia. He has a PhD and MS in Geology from the University of Delaware and a BS
degree in Earth Science from Pennsylvania State University. He also holds a certificate in
International Management and has served in leadership roles with a number of local civic
organizations.