Review Keberlanjutan Sistem Mega-Urban

menuju
SINERGI DAN KETERPADUAN
PEMBANGUNAN KAWASAN
JABODETABEKPUNJUR

Ernan Rustiadi
P4W IPB

Topik yang diharapkan

(1) Pengelolaan wilayah hulu dan hilir kawasan
perkotaan jabodetbekpunjur
(2) Rencana penataan ruang Kawasan Perkotaan
Jabodetabekpunjur
(3) Rencana pengembangan kawasan
permukiman di kawasan perkotaan
jabodetabekpunjur

Background
Three Global major problems (Beatley, 2000):
(1) the increase in food demand
(2) population growth and
(3) environmental degradation
Cities and urban areas are viewed as one trigger
of the problems (OECD, 2010).

Mega Urban concepts

megalopolis (Gottman 1961)

extended metropolitan region (McGee 1991)
mega urban regions (McGee 1995)
world cities (Hall 1966; Friedmann 1986; Sassen 1994; Jones
and Douglass 2008)

global city-regions (Scott 2001)

Megacities: The Impacts

Mega urbanization impact on environment is
significant due to their rapid growth, high
population densities and high consumption
rate of their residents
Significantly affect the future prosperity and
sustainability of the world.
key issue: Sustainable mega-urban
expansion in developing countries

Spatial Pattern of Urban Expansion

concentric shape
polycentric shape
leapfroging
sprawl
conurbation along transportation corridors.

Asian Mega Urbanization

(McGee and others)

continuing outward expansion of extended

metropolitan regions extends beyond city
administrative boundaries.
No clear distinction between rural and urban
Blurred distinction between rural and urban
Mixed land uses: agricultural & non-agricultural
lands take place side by side in suburban areas
region-based urbanization in East Asia and Southeast
Asia are often located in wet-rice production areas
(Ginsburg et al. 1991)

Megacities: The Impacts

Mega urbanization impact on environment is
significant due to their rapid growth, high
population densities and high consumption
rate of their residents
Significantly affect the future prosperity and
sustainability of the world.
key issue: Sustainable mega-urban
expansion in developing countries

Global Urbanizaton
More than half of the worlds population now
lives in urban.
The United Nations (UN) expected that by
2050 about 66% of the worlds population will
live in cities (UN 2014).
Rapid urbanization in Asian developing
countries have been followed by excessive of
the urban population concentration in very
large urban agglomerations (megacities).

Megacities (UN 2014)

A metropolitan area (urban agglomeration) with > 10
million inhabitants.
Number of Megacities in the world:
1990: 10 (153 million, 7% urban population)
2014: 28 (453 million, 12% urban population)
2030: 41 megacities

Percentage urban and location of urban agglomerations

with at least 500,000 inhabitants, 2014

Asia will continue to host nearly one half of the

worlds urban population

Global urban population growth is propelled by

the growth of cities of all sizes

Population distribution by city size

varies across major areas in 2014

RIHN Report (2014)

Kyoushu kankyou ruigata
kara Megacity no
gurobaru na renkan to
doutai wo toraeru
From living environment
point of view to
capture global
megacities dynamics
and cycles

(Nama of city) (Population in urban area)

(Nama of city) (Population in urban area)

Relation between population and population density

Relation between population and urban area

Population size rank, population, urban area,

population density, etc

List of 18 megacities

Kawasan Megacity Jakarta

dan
Piramida kependudukan 2011

Megacities Issues

Urban sprawl
Environmental Impact
Food Security
Impact of High Consumption
Increase of Disaster Risk and Hazard
Governance

Jakarta Megacity
(Greater Jakarta = Jabodetabek)
Largest megacity in South East Asia
seems to be underestimated, either by global
institutions (eg. UN) as well as by Indonesia
institutions
UN (2014): Jakarta Megacitys population =
10.2 million
RIHN (2014): Jakarta megacity as 2nd largest
megacity in the world with 27 millions
inhabitatns in 2010

30,000,000
Jakarta
Botabek

25,000,000

Jabodetabek

Population (person)

Jabotabek
20,000,000

Bodetabek

15,000,000
10,000,000

Jakarta City

5,000,000
-

1961

1971

1981

1991

2000

2010

POPULATION
1961

1971

1981

1991

2000

2010

Jakarta

2.906.533

4.576.009

6.555.954

7.108.359

8.385.639

8.502.818

Botabek

3.011.455

3.762.068

5.543.986

9.425.983A slowdown
12.814.688
due

18.253.144

Jabotabek

5.917.988

8.338.077

12.099.940

Indonesia

Asian Economic crisis

21.200.327 26.755.962
in 1997

16.534.342

97.085.600 119.208.200 151.314.600 182.940.100 203.456.005 237.641.326

Population Growth Rates

The highest1961-1971
Jakarta
population growth57,44
rate of Jakarta City24,93
Botabek

1971-1981

1981-1991

43,27

The peak of
47,37
suburbanization
40,89
growth45,12
rate
(Bodetabek)
22,79
26,93

Jabotabek
Indonesia

1991-2000

8,43

17,97

70,02

A slowdown due
Asian Economic
36,65
crisis since 1997

20,90

80.00

Jakarta

70.00

Botabek

28,22

? 26,21

11,21

16,80

Indonesia

50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
1961-1971

1971-1981

1981-1991

1991-2000

1,40

35,95
42,44
Re-suburbanization

Jabotabek

60.00

2000-2010

2000-2010

Population Share of Jabodetabek to National

Population (%) 1961-2010
12.00

Jakarta (I)
Botabek (II)

Percentage (%)

10.00

Jabotabek (I+II)
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1961

1971

1981

1991

2000

2004

2008

2010

Year

A slowdown due
Asian Economic crisis
in 1997

Peran PDRB sektor Industri Pengolahan terhadap pembentukan Total PDRB

Kondisi
Eksisiting
(Nilai Riil PDRB
(Xi,l) )

Kota-kota besar seperti:

Jakarta, Bogor, Depok
Tangerang (Jabodetabek),
Bandung dan sekitarnya,
Semarang, Surabaya dan
sekitarnya

Otokorelasi
Spasial Lokal

Model GWR
(Koefisien i,l )
Perluasan interaksi spasial ekonomi
Pulau Jawa yang ditunjukkan dari nilai
koefisiennya justru di luar wilayahwilayah yang secara aktual merupakan
basis industri. Sektor ini menunjukkkan
kekuatan yang cukup signifikan di
bagian tengah/sebagian besar Jateng
hingga ke DIY terhadap pertumbuhan
total PDRB baik terhadap wilayahnya
sendiri maupun terhadap total PDRB
Pulau Jawa

(Kekuatan keterkaitan (Ii,l )

)
Kuat keterkaitannya
di dalam kelompok
wilayahnya lemah
terhadap wilayah
lainnya

Peran PDRB sektor Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran terhadap pembentukan Total PDRB

Kondisi Eksisiting
(Nilai Riil PDRB (Xi,l) )

Otokorelasi
Spasial Lokal
(Kekuatan keterkaitan
(Ii,l ) )

Perluasan sektor
perdagangan, hotel dan
restauran di wilayah
sekitar JabodetabekBandung, bagian barat
Jawa Tengah, dan
beberapa wilayah di
bagian barat dan selatan
Jawa Timur

Model
GWR
(Koefisien
i,l )

Land Cover Change in Jabodetabek 1972-2012

300,000

Area (Hectare)

250,000
200,000
150,000

100,000
50,000
0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Year
Built Up

Paddy Field

Dry Land (Agriculture Non Paddy Field)

Water Body

Forest

2005

2010

2015

Decay Function model (Urban Sprawl Model) of Jabodetabek

RTB (i, t) = RTB (o, t) exp (a bxi)

Suburbanization of Jakarta results the expansion of housing and

industries in more distant areas from the city.
Tahun 1972

The fastest expansion of physical urban space was in the period of 1992-2000,
the
Tahunin
1983
Tahun 1992
late period before the monetary crisis (before 1997).
Terbangun
Ruang
Proporsi
ratio
Urban land

Tahun 2000
Tahun 2005

1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0

Average position of urbans

physical borders (RTBo) (0,223 0,037xi); R2 = 0,76

1972
1983

10

1992

20

2000

x1 30

Distance to the center

ofke
Jakarta
Jarak
Monas

2005

40 x2
(Km )

2010

50

x3

60

Jabodetabeks
Land Use Change Scenarios
using
Land Transformation Model (LTM)

1972-2030

Neural Network Parameterization

Input

Distance from urban landuse

1972
Distance from rivers
Distance from to arteri road
Distance from to county roads
Density of arteri roads
Density of county roads
Distance from toll road

hidden

output

Presence=1 or absence=0 of a transition

Process repeated hundreds or thousands of
iterations in order to minimize error

Network
File
Estimate error from
observed data seet

Assign weight to
estimate output

Illustration of how the neural nets were used with the driving variabel

2025

2030

Scenario 1. population growth

rate is 1% per year until year
2025 and 2030

Scenario 2. population growth

rate is 2 % per year until year
2025 and 2030

Scenario 3. Population growth

follows linear function for year
2025 and 2030

Urban land use change

2025

2030

2025

2030

Scenario 1. Population
growth follows the target
of economic growth 5 %
per year until year 2025
and 2030

Scenario 2. Population
growth follows the target
of economic growth 6%
per year until year 2025
and 2030

Urban land use change

Why is the Greater Jakarta

Continously Expanded?
(1) Public policy and governance,
(2) Private-led settlements and new towns,
(3) private-manufacturing sector, and
(4) infrastructure development.

Public policy and governance

Ideological view: political necessity of building a
modern (world) city (Leaf 1994)
1980s: market-oriented policies to support of
corporate-led housing & industrial expansion;
(Hudalah et al. 2013) to accelerate economic growth
Resulted enormous international capital influx
(attract domestic and foreign investments)
Corruption & The weakness in the government's
ability to monitor and control the urbanization
(Firman 2004; Server 1996)

Private-led settlements and new towns

Start from 1980s
1990s property boom, new towns ranging
from 500 to 6,000 hectares were developed
around Jakarta alone (Firman, 2004; Winarso
and Firman 2002)
Almost all new towns largely serve as
dormitory towns: socio-economically still
heavily dependent on the core, resulted
massive commuting and traffic (Firman 2004).

Private-manufacturing sectors
Industrial land development in suburban
China is often planned and carried out by
national state, rather than municipal or local
government (Wu and Phelps, 2008).
Start by government-supported industrial
parks and followed by private industrial parks
(Hudalah et al 2013).

Transportation corridor:
Highway roads
Establishment of highways affect urban form
by causing the population to spread out along
the highways
3 major highways: (1) The first highway is
Jagorawi (Jakarta-Bogor-Ciawi) Toll Road (to
the southern suburbs), (2) Jakarta-Cikampek
Toll Road (heading to Bandung, central and
eastern Java) and (3) Jakarta-Merak Toll Road

Jakarta-Bandung Urban Corridor

New tpll road linking the city of Bandung and
Jakarta has shorten the travel time between
the two urban and forming Jakarta-Bandung
conurbation as a mega-conurbation.
This corridor is a continuation of meso-scale
conurbation from Jakarta to Cikampek.

Urban Expansion in
Jakarta Bandung Mega Urban
Region (JBMUR)

Situation Map

The Greater Jakarta

(Jabodetabek Metropolitan Area)

Bandung
Metropolitan Area

POPULATION DENSITY
JAKARTA-BANDUNG MEGA URBAN REGION (JBMUR):
Population : 40.7 million (2010)
Area
: 18,411 km2
Pop. Density : 2,211 person/km2
Population density (person/km2)

JAKARTA

BANDUNG

JAVA ISLAND

Based on PODES Data (BPS, 2010)

URBAN-RURAL STATUS
Jakarta-Bandung Region (JBR) =
Greater Jakarta (Jabodetabek) + Bandung Metropolitan + Cianjur Regency +
Karawang Regency + Purwakarta Regency

Urban area
Rural area

JAKARTA

Study area

BANDUNG

JAVA ISLAND

Based on PODES Data (BPS, 2010)

CONURBATIONS
CONCEPT

Dadj=Dmax-Dorg (west)

URBAN LAND RATIO

vs.
ADJUSTED DISTANCE

2 Dadj=Dmax+Dorg
3 Dadj=Dmax+130+Dorg (east)

1
0.8

0.9

0.7

ULR_78
ULR_83
ULR_97
ULR_00
ULR_05

Urban Land
Ratio

0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3

0.2
0.1

0
0

50

Jakarta

100

Adjusted distance (km)

150

200

Bandung

250

Dadj=Dmax-Dorg (west)

URBAN LAND RATIO

vs.
ADJUSTED DISTANCE

2 Dadj=Dmax+Dorg

Urban Land Ratio

3 Dadj=Dmax+130+Dorg (east)

Western side of
Jakarta

Eastern side
of Bandung
Jakarta

Adjusted distance (km)

Bandung

Impacts of Jakarta-Bandung
Conurbation
(1) land use-cover changes: rice field conversion
(2) Local and Global Environmental Impact
(3) raise disaster hazard
(4) changes in resources consuming pattern.

Rice fields conversion

Rapid urban expansion in
Jabotabek has caused land use
conversion and environmental
problems as well.
Rice fields on Java
have been widely
known as one of
production centers
in Indonesia.

Spatial Distribution of Rice Fields in Java and Bali

Toward Sustainable
Mega Urban Region
(Rustiadi et al., 2014)

(1) Sustainable spatial structure and land use

policies
(2) Sustainable transportation system
(3) disaster hazard management,
(4) Sustainable resource consumption
(5) Sustainable mega-urban governance.

Decay Function model (Urban Sprawl Model) of Jabodetabek

RTB (i, t) = RTB (o, t) exp (a bxi)

Suburbanization of Jakarta results the expansion of housing and

industries in more distant areas from the city.
Tahun 1972

The fastest expansion of physical urban space was in the period of 1992-2000,
the
Tahunin
1983
Tahun 1992
late period before the monetary crisis (before 1997).
Terbangun
Ruang
Proporsi
ratio
Urban land

Tahun 2000
Tahun 2005

1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0

Average position of urbans

physical borders (RTBo) (0,223 0,037xi); R2 = 0,76

1972
1983

10

1992

20

2000

x1 30

Distance to the center

ofke
Jakarta
Jarak
Monas

2005

40 x2
(Km )

2010

50

x3

60

URBAN SPRAWL IN JABODETABEK

The spatial trends of land utilization tends to become a more

inefficient land utilization (per capita land utility has been
increasing)
Urban physical expansion growth beyond its population growth
1

Rasio urban

0.8
y 2000 = 0.192Ln(x) - 1.242
R2 = 0.62

0.6

1992

y1992 = 0.176Ln(x) - 1.113

R2 = 0.69

0.4
0.2
0
0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2000

70000

80000

90000 100000

Kepadatan Penduduk (orang/Km2)

Relation between urban land ratio and population density

Amidst continued land use changes & urban

sprawl in Jabodetabek region, various
environmental issues have been indicated:

temperature rise (urban heat island),

flooding,
landslide,
etc.

Floods and Landslides

in Jabodetabek Increase
Flood and landslides insidents follow top of
rainfall dynamic in rainy season, but the
probability for anthropogenic disasters
increase due to the decreasing of carrying
capacity
That caused by decreasing of conservatory
and agriculture area (Rustiadi et al., 2009)
Potential anthropogenic disasters such
landslides (and flood) in increasing

Number of Desa/Villages
floods

landslides

Years
Numbers of Village

Persentage (%)

2000

26

1.53

2003

95

5.59

2006

134

7.88

2008

305

17.94

2011

170

11.37

644

609

332

305

338

170

134

95

102

Landslides

26
2000

2003

2006

2008

2011

Percentage of Desa/Villages
floods

landslides
37.88%

35.82%

Floods
Years
Numbers of Village

Persentage (%)

2000

102

6.00

2003

609

35.82

2006

332

19.53

2008

644

37.88

2011

338

22.61

22.61%
19.53%

17.94%
11.37%

7.88%
6.00%

5.59%

1.53%
2000

2003

2006

2008

2011

Number of Desa/Villages
floods

Landslides

landslides

Years
Numbers of Village

Persentage (%)

2000

26

1.53

2003

95

5.59

2006

134

7.88

2008

305

17.94

2011

170

11.37

644

609

332

338

170

134

95

102

305

26
2000

2003

2006

2008

2011

Percentage of Desa/Villages
floods

landslides
37.88%

35.82%

Floods
Years
Numbers of Village

Persentage (%)

2000

102

6.00

2003

609

35.82

2006

332

19.53

2008

644

37.88

2011

338

22.61

22.61%
19.53%

17.94%
11.37%

7.88%
6.00%

5.59%

1.53%
2000

2003

2006

2008

2011

Rainy Season
(maximum
discharge)

Katulampa
Flood Control Station
(Bogor)

Flood Status:
- Siaga 1 (High)
- Siaga 2 (moderate)
- Siaga 3 (low)
Dry Season
(minimum discharge)

Record Daily Precipitation Level (mm/day) 1990-2010 in Puncak Area

and record of Major Floods in Jakarta
14,15,,23,2830 Jan dan 12 Feb 02

12, 14 Okt &

15 Nov 95

24 jan & 28
Feb 92

9-14 jan 97

3 Des 92

21 Des 91

26-28 Jan
99

8 Jan 94
10 Jan 93

23 Jan
90

1-2
Feb 07

12 , 17 Jan &
12 Feb 04

12 Mei 98

25 & 26
Mar 95

21 & 23 Jsn
05
6 Feb 01

17 Jan
06

Record of Daily Precipitation Level (mm/day) 1990-2010 and Extreme Precipitation

4 Feb 2007

30 Jan 2002
3 Feb 2007

3 Jan 1996
21 Jan
1994

6 Jan 1996

18 Jan
2005
21 Feb 2002

Climate Change in Puncak Area

The average of Monthly Precipitation Level (mm/day) 1990-2010 of Puncak Area
Rainy Season

Mm/day

Rainy Season

Dry Season

Changes

The average of Monthly Precipitation Level (mm/day) 1990-2010 of Puncak Area

Average of Flood Frequency at Katulampa Station (1990-2010 )

Yearly Flood Frequency at Katulampa Station (1990-2010 )

Yearly Flood Status Frequency at Katulampa Station (1990-2010 )

Flood Status at Katulampa Stattion

and the frequency of Flood status

Yearly Precipitation Level 1990-2011

Period of 1990-2000
Difference = mu (C1) - mu (C2)
Estimate for difference: 0.167500
95% CI for difference: (-4.496515, 4.831515)
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = 0.07 P-Value =
0.941 DF = 21
T-test for Independent Samples (Spreadsheet1) Note:
Variables were treated as independent samples

Var1 vs.
Var2

Mean Group 1

Mean Group 2

9.880.155

9.712.574 0.074727

t-value

df

p
22 0.941107

Period of 2000-2011

Statistically there is no significant

different between
Average precipitation of period
1990-2000 and period 2001-2011
Valid N Group 1
12

Valid N Group 2
12

Std.Dev. - Std.Dev. - F-ratio pGroup 1

Group 2 Variances Variances
5.377.022

5.606.942

1.087.348 0.892032

Flood Evidences Frequency

in Katulampa Station

Statistically there is a significant different in term of flood evidence

between period 1990-2000 and period 2001-2011
Increase in environmental vulnerability (due to land use/cover
change) rather than change on precipitation

Previous study (Rustiadi et al. 2002)

The Inconsistency
between Spatial Plan
and Existing Land
Cover (2001)

Production Forest

Agric Land Uses

Agriculture

Built Up Areas

Conservation Zone

Built Up Areas

Spatial Plan of Jabodetabek +

Punjur 2008-2028
(president Decree 54/2009)

Inconsistency between Land Use/Cover

vs Spatial Plan

Consistent
574.355,3 Ha
89,79%
Inconsistent
65286,0 Ha
10,21%

INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN
LAND COVER AND SPATIAL
PLAN IN
2010

PADDY FIELD
CONSERVATION FOREST
PROTECTEION FOREST
ZONA B4; PRODUCTION FOREST
ZONA B7; PRODUCTION FOREST

MAJOR SPATIAL
INCONCISTENCIES
IN JABODETABEK REGION (2010):
Production Forest

Inconsistency Spa

Land Use/Cover of Puncak Area

(1990, 2001 & 2010)

1990

2001

Upland
Shrub

Rainfed Ricefield
Irrigated ricefield
Idle Land/grass
Consistency (%)

Settlemen
tPlantation
Forest

Inconsistency (%)

Water Body

a) Land use/cover inconsistency to spatial plan (%)

Upland
Shrub
Rainfed Ricefield
Irrigated ricefield
Idle Land/grass

Settlemen
tPlantation
Forest

Consistency (%)
Inconsistency (%)

Water Body
b) Land use/cover inconsistency to land capacity (%)

Permasalahan

Permasalahan

Pertanian Lahan Kering

Permukiman
Permukiman

Inkonsistensi Penggunaan Lahan

Rencana Pola
Ruang
(RTRW 2005-2025)

VS

Status Kawasan
Hutan
(BPLAN Kemenhut 2012)

VS

Penggunaan
Lahan
(Ikonos, 2012)

Concluding Remarks
During the last two decades, the intensity of anthropogenic
disasters in Jabodetabek has increased due to declining
environmental carrying capacity
The decrease in carrying capacity associated with land Use/Cover
Change (LUCC) due to rapid urbanization pressure, especially due to
the decrease of greenery area
LUCC in jabodetabek tends to be inconsistent with spatial plan and
the carrying capacity

Future Jabodetabek environmental conditions are expected to

increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic disaster. The intensity of
floods and landslides will continue to increase if there is no
significant change of control measures

Concluding Remarks
Regional Planning system should be supported by strong and
effective Controlling system.

Urban sprawl & Suburbanization in Jabodetabek implicate on an

inefficient resources allocation and environmental problems
The lack of integrated spatial development control in the long run
will become a threat to a sustainable development.
Amidst continuing global climate changes, various forms of
degradation and destruction of natural resources and environment
are seemingly continue to happen and increase environment
vulnerability

Isu dan Tantangan Penataan Ruang

Kawasan Jabodetabek
1. Lingkungan: Indikasi terlampauinya daya
dukung lingkungan
2. Ekonomi: Hilangnya Daya saya sebagai Kota
Global
3. Sosial-Kelembagaan:

Lingkungan
Indikasi terlampauinya daya dukung lingkungan

1) Alih fungsi lahan dan inkonsistensi tata ruang

zona-zona berfungsi lindung (area resapan air)
dan pencegah banjir
2) Meningkatnya kerentanan lingkungan terhadap
dinamika lingkungan dan bencana (banjir dan
longsor)
3) Kontrubusi Signifikan pada Pemanasan Global

Ekonomi
Daya saing Jabodetabek perekonomian nasional

1) Perspektif internasional: daya saing sebagai

kota global
2) Perspektif Nasional: Pusat perekonomian
nasional
sistem transportasi yang sangat tidak efisien dan
boros sumberdaya

Sosial-Kelembagaan:
1) Lemahnya koordinasi lintas sektoral nasional
2) Lemahnya koordinasi pembangunan lintas
wilayah administrasi (BKSP??)

Sejauh mana revisi perpres 54/2008

mengelaborasi

Urban sprawl
Environmental Impact
Food Security
Impact of High Consumption
Increase of Disaster Risk and Hazard
Governance

Apakah perpres 54/2009 masih memadai

sebagai payung regulasi penataan ruang?
Sinkronisasi pola & struktur ruang dg batas kaw hutan,
RTR terkait dan nomenklatur2 nya
Pembangunan infrastruktur: sistem Transportasi massal
terintegrasi
Jabodetabekpunjur sebagai satu entitas Kerjasama
antar daerah merupakan kunci
Kelembagaan koordinasi pengendalian dan
pemanfaatan ruang:
Koordinasi pembangunan, penanggulangan bencana dll
Organisasi dan aturan2 turunan

Thank you..
Thank You

Sumber:Tjuk 2006

PUNCAK

yang Tenggelam, dan

Aksi Bersama Penyelamatannya

Aksi Penyelamatan Kawasan Hulu DAS Ciliwung Berbasis Masyarakat