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Introduction to Inference
Estimating with Confidence
Statistical confidence
Confidence intervals
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Overview of Inference
Methods
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3. Use Statistical
Inference to draw
conclusions
1. Take a SRS
of size n
2. Compute the
value of a sample
statistic
x , p
Confidence Intervals
The level of confidence is the likelihood that the true value of the
population parameter falls in the estimated interval range of values.
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?
5g
770 g
x 64.2 g
P 1
x 1
0.68 or 68%
n
n
Example 1 Cont.
Distribution of X-bar
x 64.2
12
1.443
Location of the
mean .
x 1
68% Confidence Interval
for the mean weight of a
brown egg.
64.2 1.443
(62.757, 65.643)
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P 2
x 2
0.95 or 95%.
n
n
Example 1 Cont.
x 2
Distribution of X-bar
x 64.2
5
12
1.443
Location of the
mean .
x 2
64.2 2 1.443
(61.314, 67.086)
Example 1 Cont.
What is an 80% Confidence Interval for the mean weight of a brown egg?
P z *
x z*
0.80 or 80%
n
n
1 0.80
2
- z* = invNorm(.10, 0, 1) = -1.28
We can use z* to calculate the
margin of error for the interval:
m z *
12
64.2 1.8475 or
62.35,
66.05
z* =
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A level C (expressed as a %)
confidence interval for when is
known is given by:
x z *
Assumptions
z*
Example
(a)
(b)
(c)
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OR
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39
30
54
50
65
63
64
41
Compute (a) 80%, (b) 90%, & (c) 98% confidence intervals for the true
population mean of the number of calories in apples of this variety based on
this sample. Assume caloric content in apples of this type is normally
distributed with a standard deviation =10 calories.
/n
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The probability quantifies the chance that the interval contains the
true population parameter.
m z*
z * 2
n
Remember, though, that sample size is not always stretchable at will. There are
typically
costs and constraints associated with large samples. The best
approach is to use the smallest sample size that can give you useful results.
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z *
1.645 *1
2
n
n
3.29 10.8241
m
0
.
5
10