Predicting Droughts in the Future

Considering all of the natural disasters that the Earth has undergone, severe droughts are
high on the list. These droughts have led to residents needing to relocate, the extinction of some
animals, and a change in the Earths structure. As the years have gone by, droughts have become
more severe and have lasted longer than anyone predicted, which causes many to wonder what
the Earth is in store for. Over the past few months, many magazine articles and news stations
have written about droughts, such as the one in California. In the February 2014 issue of
National Geographic, Lisa M. Krieger describes the droughts that have occurred in the past and
predict how they will lead to a disastrous drought in the future. In Lisa M. Krieger's article
"What the West's Ancient Droughts Say About Its Future, she uses logos and an array of
pictures to argue convincingly that the Earth is in store for a devastating drought, based on the
effects of the droughts that have occurred in the past.
Krieger uses logic in her article to prove that previous droughts play a big role in
predicting future droughts. In her article, she cites many studies done that involve tree growth,
which helps scientists predict the length of the dry spells that have occurred in the past. She
included a study conducted by Scott Stine where he found ancient cottonwoods and Jeffrey pines
in California that displayed proof of a severe drought between 900 A.D.-1400 A.D. in
accordance with the rings in the trees. Stine discovered submerged tree trunks along the
shoreline of California's Mono Lake, suggesting that the water level was once tens of feet lower
than it is now. Using these types of studies allows her point about previous droughts affecting
future droughts to be further supported.

Krieger uses a vast array of pictures of

different droughts that have occurred and the
destruction they have caused to portray their effects
on that area and the residents. She also uses her
pictures to compare an area before and after a
Figure 1: Drought of 1977
Image courtesy of Walter Zeboski

drought.

She uses pictures to explain previous droughts effects on that area and how these droughts could
lead to a massive drought in the future. The picture that captures my attention every time I read
the article is the picture of the Pardee Reservoir near Jackson, California that was 103 feet
below normal due to drought in 1977 (See Figure 1). Like this picture, all of the pictures
Krieger uses in her article catch the readers attention by capturing the impact of the drought and
the long-term effects of the drought, such as rebuilding the land and replenishing the water
sources.
Kriegers most impressive part of her article is her ability to include as many pictures as
possible and keep the article interesting, without confusing the reader. Her ability to use studies
on the growth of tree rings and water deprivation from previous droughts allows the reader to
accept Kriegers thesis. Krieger is able to successfully use logos and a vast array of pictures to
prove her point that previous droughts have an impact in future droughts that may be more
severe and devastating.

Work Cited
Krieger, Lisa M. "What the West's Ancient Droughts Say About Its Future." National
Geographic 13 Feb. 2014: n. pag. Web. 1 Oct. 2014.