Advantages and Disadvantages

of Sampling
Vermont ASQ Meeting
October 26, 2011
Jeffrey S. Solomon
General Dynamics
Armament and Technical Products, Inc.
Williston, VT 05495

Outline
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.

Definition and Examples

History and the Basic Assumption
1936 Presidential Election
Advantages and Disadvantages of Sampling
Economics of Sampling
Theory Behind Sampling: Risks and OC Curves
Common Sampling Plans and Terms
Example Using Z1.4
Summary
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I. Definition and Examples

Sampling
l The process of selecting a subset of units or
individuals (a portion or sample) from a population of
interest so that by examining the sample, we can
generalize the results to the whole population
Examples
l Conducting a poll to predict the winner of an
upcoming election
l Inspecting a sample of parts to determine if the entire
lot meets requirements
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II. History
l

Sampling is mentioned several times in the Bible

1786: Pierre Simon Laplace estimates the population

of France by using a sample

During WWII, use of sampling spreads when sampling

plans such as MIL-STD-105 were developed by Harold
Dodge and others

Basic Assumption of Sampling

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Whenever a sample is taken from a population, it

must be a RANDOM SAMPLE

Random sample: Every unit in the population has an

equal chance of being included in the sample

If you dont have a random sample, you are not

allowed to apply the results of the sample to the entire
population

III. The 1936 Presidential Election

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The Literary Digest was an influential weekly

magazine; founded in 1890, it flourished in the early
20th century (circulation over 1 million), only to cease
operations by 1940
1936 presidential election: FDR (D, incumbent) versus
Alf Landon (R, Kansas governor); height of the Great
Depression
The Literary Digest conducted a straw poll regarding
the outcome of the election. They had done this in
1932 and had accurately predicted the outcome. Ten
million surveys were sent to Digest subscribers,
registered automobile owners and telephone
customers
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The 1936 Presidential Election

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Based on the survey, Digest predicted Landon would

win 370 161

In the November election, Landon carried only Maine

and Vermont; FDR won the other 46 states and won
523 8

Why?

The 1936 Presidential Election

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Of the 10 million people that were sent surveys, only

2.4 million responded (a very large number for any
survey, but a very low response rate)
Digests readers, automobile owners, and telephone
users all had disposable incomes well above the
national average in 1936
Voluntary responses to a survey is not a random
sample
George Gallups American Institute of Public Opinion
correctly predicted the result of the election using a
sample of 50,000
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IV. Advantages of Sampling

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100% inspection does not guarantee 100%

compliance
Economy
Less opportunity for product damage
Fewer inspection personnel
Less monotonous for the inspector
Lot-by-lot examination
Applicable for destructive testing
Lot rejection versus piece rejection
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Disadvantages of Sampling
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Risk of rejecting a good lot (producers risk)

Risk of accepting a bad lot (consumers risk)
Greater administration costs
Requires additional planning and documentation
Yields less actual information about the product
Will not detect all defective product in a lot
Designed to maintain a given level of quality; will not
drive improvement

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V. Economics of Sampling
l

Which method of inspection costs the least:

No inspection
Sampling
100% inspection
Variables needed
Lot size
Sample size
% defective
Cost if a defect isnt caught
Inspection cost per unit Probability of accepting a lot
Example: 100 piece lot; c=0 sampling plan with sample
size of 13; $0.50 to inspect a piece; $10 to fix the higher
assembly if a defective part is used
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Economics of Sampling

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VI. Theory Behind Sampling

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Sampling is an example of Hypothesis Testing

Null Hypothesis (H0): The lot is acceptable (good)
Alternative Hypothesis (Ha): The lot is unacceptable
Process: Given the lot size. . .
Determine the sampling plan (sample size, accept
number, reject number)
Select random sample
Inspect parts in the sample; count the number of
defective ones
Determine whether to accept or reject the lot
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Sampling Risks
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Producers risk = risk of rejecting a good lot = =

Type I error = level of significance
Consumers risk = risk of accepting a bad lot = =
Type II error
The operating characteristics (OC) curve for a sampling
plan shows these risks. It shows the probability of
accepting a lot as a function of the percent defective in
the lot
AQL Acceptance Quality Limit (formerly known as
Acceptable Quality Level): The quality level that is the
worst tolerable process average when a continuing
series of lots is submitted for acceptance sampling
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Ideal OC Curve

AQL

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More Typical OC Curves

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VII. Common Sampling Plans

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ANSI/ASQ Z1.4 (MIL-STD-105)

ANSI/ASQ Z1.9 (MIL-STD-414)
C=0 (Zero Acceptance Number Sampling Plans by
Nicholas L. Squeglia) (ASQ H1331)
Dodge-Romig Sampling Tables
MIL-STD-1916
MIL-STD-1235
Boeing D1-8007

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Common Sampling Terms

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Inspection by Attributes / Variables

Inspection Levels
Single / Double / Multiple Sampling
Normal / Tightened / Reduced Sampling
AQL / AOQ / AOQL
Continuous sampling
Sequential sampling
Skip lot sampling (ASQ S1)

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VIII. Example Using Z1.4

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You work in Receiving Inspection and have been given

a shipment from Widgets R Us containing 25 widgets

You are told to inspect it using ANSI/ASQ Z1.4 for

General Inspection Level II

AQL 1.0

Single normal sampling

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Example Using Z1.4

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Example Using Z1.4

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Example Using Z1.4

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Sampling Plan

Sample size (n) = 13

Acceptance number (Ac or c) = 0
Rejection number (Re) = 1

Select a random sample of size 13 from the lot of 25

widgets

Inspect the parts in the sample

Accept the entire lot if there are 0 defective pieces in

the sample; otherwise reject the lot
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IX. Summary
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Sampling is a good approach but you need to be

aware of its limitations

Keep it simple pick the best sampling approach for

your needs, set up your own procedures with tables to
use, and train everyone

The concept of a random sample is critical

Set up a Dock-to-Stock or Operator Self-Inspection

program for parts with historically very low defect rates

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Questions?

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