ORF 309

Homework 1 - Solutions

Due: Sept. 17, 2014

Q. 1 (Probability gymnastics). Let A, B, C be any events.

a. Write A B as the disjoint union A (B \ A), then using the additivity we have
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B \ A). Now inequality follows from B \ A B and
Example 1.14
P(A B) P(A) + P(B).
b. Write A = (A B) (A B c ) (A B) B c , then we see that
P(A) P((A B) B c ) = P(A B) + P(B c ) = P(A B) + 1 P(B),
using that (A B) B c = . Rearranging gives desired inequality.
c. By the definition of conditional probability,
P(A B C) = P(A|B C)P(B C).
Apply the definition again on the right hand side, we get
P(A B C) = P(A|B C)P(B C) = P(A|B C)P(B|C)P(C).

Q. 2 (Sherlock Holmes). Let A be the event that the fatal meeting was with his wife,
B be that with his business partner, C be that with his secretary, and D be that with
the secret visitor. We have that P(A) = 15%, P(B) = 30%, P(C) = 50%, and
P(D) = 5%.
Let trigger be the event that the man is shot. Sherlock deduces that P(trigger|A) =
5%, P(trigger|B) = 3%, P(trigger|C) = 1%, and P(trigger|D) = 5%. Using the
Bayes formula, the conditional probability that the men is killed by his wife is
P(A|trigger) =

0.0075
0.15 0.05
=
= 31.25%.
0.15 0.05 + 0.3 0.03 + 0.5 0.01 + 0.05 0.05
0.024

Similarly, P(B|trigger) = 37.5%, P(C|trigger) = 20.83%, and P(D|trigger) =

10.42%. The business partner is the most likely to have been the murderer.

Q. 3 (Help Chevalier de Mere). For each throw, the probably of getting a double six is
P(double six) =

1
.
36

Then the probability of not having a single double six in the 24 throws is

24
1
P(no double six in 24 throws) = 1
0.5086.
36
1

Therefore the desired probability is



1
P(at least one double six) = 1 1
36

24
0.4914.

Q. 4 (Blackjack). a. We can model the sample space as the set of all permutations
of the deck of 52 cards. Since we assume that every possible ordering of cards is
equally likely, we assign equal probability to each
P{} =

1
1
=
,
||
52!

for each .
b. The only ways to get exactly 21 in the first two cards is to get a 10 and an 11 (in
either order). So the probability is
P(sum of the values of the two cards is exactly 21) =

4 44
128
44 4
+
=
4.83%.
52 51 52 51
2652

c. Suppose you initially drew the 7 of hearts and the 5 of clubs, you have 12 points
right now, the only way you can exceed 21 is by drawing a 10, J, Q, or K. So the
probability is
P(exceed 21|7 of hearts and 5 of clubs) =

44
= 32%.
50

You should draw.

d. Suppose you initially drew the 6 of diamonds and the K of spades, you have 16
points right now. You will exceed 21 if you draw anything more than or equal to 6.
So the probability is
P(exceed 21|6 of diamonds and K of spades) =
You should not draw.

3+46+3
= 60%.
50

Grading Comments
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