UNSTABLE GULF

Report Finds Gulf States Unstable Despite Resource Wealth

By Claude Salhani | Tue, 18 November 2014 22:06 | 0
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Sectarian and ethnic tension, religious violence, and terrorism threats appear to be rising trends in
the Gulf region according to a new study on the state of security in the Gulf by the Center for
Strategic and International Studies.

The 200-plus page report released last week was prepared by veteran analyst Anthony H.
Cordesman from CSIS, a highly respected Washington, DC, think tank.
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The report notes the alarming rise of politicized Islam in the Arab world. Even in Saudi Arabia, the socalled Islamic State has found many followers in spite of the fact that the self-proclaimed caliphate
does not recognize Saudi Arabia.

Also highlighted in the report is a profound consolidation of governmental power with little to no
participation by the ordinary citizen.

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The report allows one to measure the great paradox that is the modern Arab world, with excessive
and often times ostentatious wealth on the one hand, and almost medieval situations, where
women are openly sold as slaves in the marketplace and public executions are common, on the
other.

Indeed, even if the lifestyles are rather extreme in some instances, what would be considered
extremely unusual in the West can be the norm in the Arab world. The common denominator here
seems to be abundant oil and gas in these countries, the sale of which allows the realization of
sometimes outlandish projects.

These projects can range from the construction of five star hotels, world-class shopping malls with
indoor ski slopes and some of the worlds tallest buildings, to large-scale arms trading and the
financing of the Islamic State.

The report examines each of the Gulf Cooperation Countries as well as Yemen (and a few others that
have an impact on the region, such as Iran and Egypt, and rates them on a number of criteria that
include:

1. Voice and Accountability: the extent to which a countrys citizens are able to participate in
selecting their government as well as freedom of expression, freedom of association and a free
media.

2. Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism: the likelihood that the government will be
destabilized by unconstitutional or violent means, including terrorism.

3. Government Effectiveness: the quality of public services, the capacity of the civil service and its
independence from political pressures; and the quality of policy formulation.

4. Regulatory Quality: the ability of the government to provide sound policies and regulations that
enable and promote private sector development.

5. Rule of Law: (T)he rules of society, including the quality of contract enforcement and property
rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence.

6. Control of Corruption: the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including
both petty and grand forms of corruption, as well as capture of the state by elites and private
interests.

Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates rate low in transparency and are declining in voice and
accountability. Kuwait receives a poor mark, Oman and Qatar rate very low, while Saudi Arabia
rates extremely low, with no levels of transparency and no positive trends in sight.

Iraq and Yemen come in so low in the ratings that they are considered failed states.

In terms of governance Bahrain faces serious problems, Kuwait gets good to moderate marks in
governance but scores low on corruption.

Bahrain faces serious demographic pressures increased by reliance on foreign laborers.

Oman faces growing problems with political stability and violence that the government is trying to
downplay and conceal.

Related: Three Possible Outcomes Of Iranian Nuclear Talks

The only positive ray of hope in this otherwise somber and dark outlay of problems holding back the
development of the region comes from the United Arab Emirates.

Indeed, despite low levels of transparency in government, and no accountability, the World Bank still
places the UAE as probably the only Arab country without a rising trend towards violence.

The bottom line is that, in spite of the mega-billions the gulf countries are raking in, the image of the
Arab world remains marred by extreme violence and conflicts.

By Claude Salhani of Oilprice.com