IJAR-BAE (July 2012)

Vol. 01. Issue 03. Article No. 05

www.setscholars.org/index.php/ijarbae
Full Length Opinion Paper
IJAR-BAE

ISSN: 1839-8456

International Journal of
Applied Research in
BUSINESS
ADMINISTRATION &
ECONOMICS

Identifying the Critical Issues of Stock Market: A Study on Dhaka

Stock Exchange (DSE)
Md. Moniruzzaman Sarker1*, Nusrat Nargis2*
1

Senior Lecturer, School of Business & Economics, United International University, Bangladesh.
Senior Lecturer, Department of Business Administration, Daffodil International University, Bangladesh.
*Corresponding authors email: mrajib.sarker@gmail.com, mishu_fin@yahoo.com
2

Article History

ABSTRACT

Received: 19-05-2012
Accepted: 13-06-2012
Available online: 31-07-2012

Bangladeshi Stock Market has experienced a big crash twice from its inception. In
1996, the market was crashed because of speculative bubble whereas; it was an
asset bubble in the year 2011. The stock price was overvalued this time. Price was
inflated about 500-700 percent compare to the face value. DGEN Index climbed at
point 8918.51 on December 05, 2010 which signaled a steeper bubble. Our study
postulates the present scenario of Bangladesh Stock Market through various
quantitative and qualitative data which are extracted from the secondary sources.
Quantitative data are gathered from the web site of Dhaka Stock Exchange and other
qualitative data are collected from published research journals, newspapers,
websites etc. This study has revealed that, Gap between the Demand and Supply of
stock, extraordinary over pricing of stock, market manipulation, lack of knowledge
about the stock market mechanism among the general investors, price distortion,
inefficient regulations, political unrest, etc caused the crash of DGEN Index in the
FY2011. Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) of Bangladesh and government
should encourage more public limited companies to offer more share to meet the
current demands. In order to get back the confidence among the existing investors
regulatory body may introduce Income tax rebate, Injection of Market Stabilization
Fund, Mandatory holding certain percentage of share among the board of directors,
short term incentives packages etc.

Keywords:
Stock Market, Dhaka Stock
Exchange (DSE), DSE General
(DGEN) Index, Market Crash,
Market Manipulation.

JEL Classification:
E58, E18, G28.

Citation: Sarker M.M. et al., Identifying the Critical Issues of Stock Market: A Study on Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). IJAR-BAE
1(3): p. 48 55.

Copyright: @2012 Sarker M.M. et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative
Common Attribution 3.0 License.

1.0

Introduction

Bangladesh is a developing country based on market economy. In 2011, the estimated per capita income
was $700. International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2010 ranked Bangladesh as 43rd largest economy in the
world in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The estimated GDP growth rate in 2011 was 6.3%.
Bangladesh has two stock markets: Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE)
which are growing in nature. The market capitalization of DSE crossed $10 billion in November 2007 and
$50 billion in August 2010. It contributed the countrys economy having one of the best performing stock
markets in the world during the recent global recession.

A full length opinion paper does not have any major contribution to the academic world. However, it is still considered for publication
since it brings some insights of the paper may still be valuable to the readers, policy makers and academic world.
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Sarker M.M. et al. / IJAR-BAE (July 2012) Vol. 1, Issue 3 / Page No: 48-55.

The stock market of Bangladesh was bullish before 2010. But in 2010, the market become bearish as
there was a market crash. This situation turned millions of investors as bankrupt. The investors blamed
the government for this crash as they believed that the crash was caused artificially to benefit some
group of investors at the expense of some big players of the market. They lost their confidence on the
fairness of the market. As a result, the market continued to fall. Since 2007, Bangladesh stock market has
experienced continuous growth. There is gap between demand and supply of shares in the market. It
results in instability of the market. DSE, which is a non-profit sharing company, was originated in 1954.
Its trading activities had been suspended in 1971 because of the governments economic policy. During
1986-1987 and 1990-92, there was a major growth in the trading. The trading in DSE has been increasing
in recent years.
At present there are over 750 companies listed with DSE. Another participant in Bangladesh stock
market is Chittagong Stock Exchange CSE. It was established in February 1995 as a public company.
There are different types of instruments in Bangladesh share market such as, government securities
(treasury bills and savings certificates). The savings certificates are consists of 8-year Defense Saving
Certificates, 7-year Bonus Certificates, 5-year Bangladesh Saving Certificates, Wage Earners Bonds, and
National Investment Bond.
The government also issues debenture of State Owned Corporations. Convertible debentures and mutual
funds are also traded at the exchange. There are also private companys ordinary shares and debentures
in the market. In these stock markets, there are individual investors and institutional investors. Since
2011, Bangladeshs benchmarked stock index dropped 55% and it continues to fall.

2.0

Objectives of the study

Since the origination of DSE in 1986, it passed through two big market crashes during 1996 and 2011.
This repeated crisis made all the small investors empty. Our objective is to find out the underlying causes
of recent market fall and address some suggestions to get it back in structured market mechanism.
Specifically our focuses are to:
1. Analyze the current situation of Bangladesh stock market and trace out its problems
2. Identify the prospects of Bangladesh stock market.
3. Tap few guidelines to recover the recent crisis.

3.0

Methodology

Share market presumes to be the bumpy highway among the investors. From the FY2010, Bangladeshi
share market had been experienced through stepper decline of DGEN Index. The condition right now is
comparatively stable but the index declined almost 40% from what it stood at the beginning of 2011. To
find out the critical issues of this sudden drama, we have collected secondary information from various
sources. We have emphasized on quantitative and qualitative data to analyze the prevail crisis in
Bangladesh stock market. All the quantitative data are extracted from Dhaka Stock Exchange website and
qualitative data are collected from published research journals, newspapers, websites etc. This study is
basically exploratory in nature based on qualitative analysis. We have given emphasis on few expert
opinions to ensure the reliability of our study.

4.0

Literature review

Stock markets were not as sophisticated and world based trading exchange as today. The Dutch East
India Company was the first company who offered stocks to the outside investors. They entitled the
investors a fixed percentage of companys profit. The company was also the first company to raise stocks
and bonds among the general public.
The formation of US stock market was started over 200 years ago. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was
started from a meeting of twenty four large merchants. New kind of investment born as the investors
realized that money can be made by reselling the stocks. This realization gave the birth of secondary
market. After this other markets like American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and NASDAQ were created. The
government of United States decided to introduce more regulations for the market as the number of
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Sarker M.M. et al. / IJAR-BAE (July 2012) Vol. 1, Issue 3 / Page No: 48-55.

market participants were growing. The government wanted to protect the investors of the market. In
1934, Securities and Exchange Commissions (SEC) was formed to regulate US stock market. The SEC not
only regulate the American stock market trading but also watch the daily trading of the market to protect
the interest of the investors.
With the knowledge of US stock market, Dhaka stock exchange was incorporated as East Pakistan Stock
Exchange Association ltd in 1954. It started trading in 1956. In 1964, it was renamed as Decca Stock
Exchange Ltd. During the period of 1971-1975 the trading was stopped. After this period, trading
restarted in Bangladesh. In 1986, DSE was formed. During the period of 1986-87 and 1990-92 the trading
was growing in DSE. In 1992, the market was held open for foreign investors. In 1995, the SEC approved
for the second stock exchange of Bangladesh named as Chittagong stock exchange (CSE). Both DSE and
CSE have automated trading systems. In 2010, the number of listing companies in DSE was 750 and
market capitalization was $50.28 billion dollars. In order to increase the efficiency of the market, Central
Depository Bangladesh Limited (CDBL) was incorporated in 2000. It operates and maintains the Central
Depository System (CDS).Until May, 2012 the number of CDBL enlisted companies (ISIN) is 288 and
there are 411 Depository Participants (DP) under the system. CDBL not only provides services to the
capital market of Bangladesh but also manage the Settlement of over the Counter (OTC) transaction of
Treasury Bills and Government Bonds issued by the central bank. Under the CDS, there is no need for
physical movement of certificate to change ownership. It provides a platform for the secondary trading of
Treasury Bills and other Government Bonds. These bills and bonds are issued by the Bangladesh Bank.
In December 2010, DSE index had crossed 8500 points. The market had called bullish during this period.
After this period, the market became bearish. The exchange lost 1800 point between, December 2010
and January 2011. In January 2011, the General Price Index (DGEN) fall 660 points. During the period of
January 2010 to December 2010, the DGEN increased by 80 percent. In the history of DSE, there were
two market crashes. In 1996, the market was crashed because of the speculative bubble. In 2011, it was
asset bubble. In 2011, the market was overvalued. With the crash millions of investors lost their money
within a second. After the crash, the stock market of Bangladesh earned the blame of being the worst
stock market in the world.

5.0

Role of Bangladesh Bank in share market

Bangladesh share market experienced a huge crash between December 2010 and January 2011. The
asset bubble that had been the critical question of millions of investors had finally burst. It had been said
that this burst had caused because of some policies of the central bank. Bangladesh Bank allowed the
commercial banks to invest large capital in the share market. As a result, merchant banks became the
crucial player in the market. Bangladesh bank remains ignorant about this matter. Again when
Bangladesh Bank increase the cash reserve ratio (CRR), the banks had nothing to do but to sale their
shares. This even created a downward pressure on the share price, and market faced a huge crash.
Bangladesh bank should learn from the past history. The confidence of the investors has to be restored.
Other than the Bangladesh share market would not be recovered from this position.

6.0

Scenario of stock market

The capital market of Bangladesh holds the dramatic faces since its inception. It flipped in FY11 after a
high rise in FY10. DSE index lost 36.6% in 2011 while the return was 83% in 2010. This scenario almost
destroyed, the confidence of the investors. This two sides of scenario turned the most investors almost
empty hand while very few people made money out of nothing.,
This scenario began during FY 10 without any major correction, finally burst on December 19. FY10
while DGEN recorded the steepest till date single day fall of 552 points or 6.7% to 7654 since FY09. The
negative slope of the industry continued till January 10, 2011. That set new records and breaks. The
following statistics show us how DSE has crashed during the FY 2011:

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6.01

DSE at a glance
Factors
Total trading days
Total Turnover Value (BD mn)
Daily average Turnover Value (BD mn)
Average Volume (BD bn)
Market Capitalization (USD bn)
Market Capitalization: Equity portion (USD bn)
DSE General Index (DGEN)
DSI Index
DSE 20
Total Number of Listed Securities
Total Number of Companies
Total Number of Mutual Funds
Total Number of Corporate Bonds
Total Newly Listed Securities
Market Capitalization to GDP (Ratio)

FY 2010
243
4,009,913
16,434
818
41.25
35.68
8,290
6,878
5,205
445
218
31
2
21
50.67

FY 2011
235
1,560,912
6,642
849
30.77
23.84
5,258
4,384
3,910
501
232
37
3
8
33.23

Change (%)
-61%
-60%
4%
-25%
-33%
-37%
-36%
-25%
56
14
6
1
-34%

Source: DSE Monthly Review and Graphs.

6.02

Sector index YTY change

Sectors
NBFIs
Ceramics
Textile
General Insurance
Services & Real Estate
Mutual Funds
Miscellaneous
Paper & Printing
IT
Engineering
Banks
Telecommunication
Life Insurance
Jute
Fuel & Power
Pharmaceuticals
Cements
Tannery
Food & Allied

6.03

DEC 11
2415.55
577
1728.17
2370.45
1736.51
796.62
1432.09
2244.61.
1384.98
2771.07
1804.64
2276.87
2105.63
3628.16
1298.98
1184.00
1356.49
1611.21
3489.72

Change (%)
-59%
-48%
-47%
-44%
-42%
-41%
-40%
-39%
-38%
-37%
-35%
-33%
-33%
-31%
-31%
-29%
-29%
-18%
-16%

Source: DSE Monthly Review and Graphs.

Capital size
Free float index change

6.04

DEC 10
5885.48
1119.87
3246.12
4246.70
2998.20
1361.28
2376.07
3661.98
2229.18
4405.13
2765.52
3422.97
3143.99
5252.50
1869.32
1671.45
1897.61
1976.05
4167.84

JANUARY 02, 2011

DECEMBER 29,
2011

Change (%)

Large Cap

98.34

59.44

-39.55%

Mid Cap
Small Cap
Mini Cap
Micro Cap

98.93
99.28
99.78
99.24

58.52
58.69
64.58
73.56

-40.85%
-40.88%
-35.28%
-25.87%

Sector wise P/E ratio

Source: DSE Monthly Review and Graphs.

Sector
Bank
Financial Institutions
Mutual Funds
Engineering
Food & Allied
Fuel & Power

P/E (DEC, 2010)

25.24
47.27
17.53
50.1
27.3
21.57

P/E (DEC 2011)

10.50
12.15
6.24
26.4
16.41
13.95

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Sarker M.M. et al. / IJAR-BAE (July 2012) Vol. 1, Issue 3 / Page No: 48-55.

Jute
Textile
Pharmaceuticals
Paper & Printing
Service & Real Estate
Cement
IT
Tannery
Ceramic
Insurance
Telecommunication
Travel & Leisure
Miscellaneous
Market P/E

55.66
52.44
34.12
126.93
43.93
33.44
64.91
20.66
106.86
64.64
20.35
65.45
19.54
26.16

32.64
22.66
22.52
42.23
25.82
21.6
38.93
15.6
30.2
20.37
20.62
23.07
8.02
13.68

Source: DSE Monthly Review and Graphs.

6.05

Significant corporate activities in FY11.

6.06

13 new scrips made their debut.

Keya Cosmetics and Keya Detergent merged in May.
BEXTEX and BEXIMCO amalgamated in July.
India High Court passed judgment in Lafarges favor in August.
Bangladesh fund had been launched on October 11
Uniform Face Value was implemented on December 04.

Name of IPOs/RPOs: FY 2011

Name Of IPOs/RPOs
MJL Bangladesh Ltd
M. I. Cement Factory Limited
Bangladesh Shipping Corporation (RPO)
LR Global Bangladesh Mutual Fund One
Barakatullah Electro Dynamics Limited
EBL NRB Mutual Fund
Zahintex Industries Limited
Southeast Bank 1st Mutual Fund
MBL 1st Mutual Fund
AIBL 1st Islamic Mutual Fund
Subordinated 25% Convertible Bonds of BRAC Bank Limited (RPO)
Rangpur Dairy & Food Products Limited
Reliance Insurance Mutual Fund
Salvo Chemical Industry Limited
Deshbandhu Polymer Limited
Total Issue Size

Public Issue
(BDT MN)
4600
3348
3137
1500
1200
750
500
500
500
500
300
294
275
260
160
17,824

Source: DSE Monthly Review and Graphs.

7.0

Analysis

From the above statistics, it is found that stock market lost in every aspect. Daily average turnover of DSE
has dropped by 60% from 2010 to 2011. P/E ration has also decreased in every sector of the industry. As
a whole, DSE has dropped at the floor. We have found the active factors for this sudden crisis in DSE.
There is a huge gap between demand and supply of shares. Currently the number of BO accounts is about
more than 3 millions whereas the supply of share is not sufficient. As a result, investors purchased the
share by giving unbelievably high price. Consequently, DGEN Index rose in pick point at 8918.51 on
December 05, 2010, which is robust bubble compare to the market size. On the other hand, most of the
investors have little knowledge about the share market. They actually used to purchase and sale their
shares based on rumor. It is observed in many cases that, investors did purchase the share by giving
about 500-700 percent high price than the face value and expected to earn profit in that situation. Even

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Sarker M.M. et al. / IJAR-BAE (July 2012) Vol. 1, Issue 3 / Page No: 48-55.

they didnt consider the P/E ration or other indicators to invest in that particular company. Since, share
market is the knowledge based game not the place of gambling, these investors fall in big trouble.
There is a negative image of the share market to the investors. The Government is not doing much in the
market to bring them back in the market. It is suggested; big companies should come to the market for
financing. But the problem is that the companies are not encouraged to come to the market as it has
many problems. The market is not efficient. There is lack of efficient and skilled people in the market. The
history of the market is not so good. It has been observed that some of the companies share prices are
increased artificially. It affected the operations of the market. The settlement of some of the companies
takes long time which de-motivates the investors to make further investment. Another problem of the
market is that the companies which have shares in the market are not providing full financial information
to the investors. There is lack of transparency regarding the financial data to the investors. So the
investors are losing their confidence on the market. The regulatory body fails to protect the investors of
Bangladesh share market.
In order to stabilize the market SEC took several initiatives like, margin loan ratio increase and allowing
no marginable shares. But index continued to fall with paltry turnover of BDT 4894 million. By
formatting open end mutual fund of BDT 50 billion sponsored by the state ownership institution, tried to
stabilize the market but this initiative does not last long. As the govt. position was strict against money
whitening, tax on capital gains, TIN certificates against BO accounts are resulting the DGEN fall.
As SEC got reformed and banks had trimmed down the single borrower exposure, some affirmative
positive impacts have been laid. Budget amendment regarding undisclosed money creates positive
changes in the stock market in June 2011. But during July- September depression strikes again, as SEC
step out to take legal action against the suspected investors, weakening financial system, liquidity
shortage. Investors protested against it and it results on the relaxation of adjustment timeline for single
borrower exposure of merchant bankers.
Several stakeholders like Bangladesh association of publicly listed companies (BAPLC) have taken action
to mitigate the margin loan crisis. Some positive initiatives like income tax rebate on stock market
investment, lower taxes on mutual funds and halving of taxes on brokerage commission have been taken
followed by it. Market Stabilization Fund has been formed by the Bangladesh Association of Bankers to
mitigate the crisis. As no positive outcome happened investment was low. Negative reports of World
Bank and IMF had impact on it also.
While the steep escalation of DGEN could not justified by underlying fundamentals, restrictive monetary
policy to curb growing inflation and to seize depreciation of local currency was also instrumental behind
sharp fall of DGEN from December, 2010. Eroding confidence due to lack of consistency in the policy
measures and bleak economic outlook accentuated the fall.
Regional Markets condition was not in good shape during the year 2010-2011. In this South Asian region,
the market index was also downward. Among the countries, DGEN Index (Bangladesh) fall the highest
point. Since the regional market was downward, Bangladeshi big investors were careful to go with the
situation.
Country (Index)
Bangladesh (DGEN)
India (BSE 30)
Taiwan (Taiwan Weighted)
Hong Kong (HengSeng)
Singapore (Straits Time)
Thailand (SET)
Malaysia (KLSE Composite)
Pakistan (Karachi 100)
Srilanka (CSE All Share Index)

YTD % Change in
index
-36.6%
-34.7%
-24.0%
-19.2%
-17.2%
-4.5%
-4.0%
-10.4%
-

P/E
DEC, 2010
30.94
23.89
15.00
20.00
16.00
15.00
18.00
9.00
24.69

P/E
DEC, 2011
13.62
17.61
13.00
10.00
11.00
10.00
15.00
8.00
15.82

Source: DSE Monthly Review and Graphs

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8.0 Suggestions & Conclusion

To protect the share market of Bangladesh, the regulatory body should take some effective measures. It
should introduce some monitoring systems to protect the price manipulations of the share. Provisions
should be made to provide all the financial data to the investors so that they can get a proper idea about
the company. The market should be free from fake certificates. The government should offer income tax
rebate on the income of share market and encourage the banks and non banking institutions to come to
the market directly. Some incentives package for the investors like getting financing at a low cost has to
be offered to bring back the investors in the market. Market stabilization fund must be introduced so
that it can help to meet up with crisis situation.
In November 2011, DGEN decreases from 5000 to 4877, creating panic in the investors, as they tried to
leave the market before it is too late. The chaos followed by the prime minister intervention and finally
SEC declared multilevel incentive packages in November 23rd 2011. This incentive package includes,
30%stakes hold by the sponsors, allowing banks in capital market investments, and opening up sell side
research and investment advisory service. As investors had mixed feelings on the implementation of the
initiative, all shares started to trade in uniform value of BDT 10 on December 2011. On December 29, the
last trading session of the year 2011, DGEN ended at 5257.6.
Stock market of Bangladesh has got the adjective the worst stock market in the world. It had its
impressive growth since 2007. DGEN Index climbed at point 8918.51 on December 05, 2010 which was
overvalued in all aspect. Then the market crashed at point 4877 in November 2011. Since Bangladesh is
heading toward the developing nation, capital market can be the engine of growth for its economy if
market becomes structured and efficient. Around the world well reputed stock markets like - New York
Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Australian
Securities Exchange, Dubai Stock Exchange and so on, are regulated and running efficiently that provides
significant contribution to their individual economy. Since, stock market is knowledge based game rather
than place of gambling; there must be rational win-lose situation always. But Bangladeshi stock market
experienced through inefficient and irrational fluctuation of DGEN Index in the year 1996 and 2011
which resembles the place of gambling.
From our study, we have found that, there are problems like Big Gap between the Demand and Supply
of stock, extraordinary over pricing of stock, market manipulation, lack of knowledge about the stock
market mechanism among the general investors, price distortion, inefficient regulations, political unrest,
etc caused the steepest downward fall of DGEN Index in the FY2011. As a result, about millions of
investors lost their capital which turned them empty within few months. Security and Exchange
Commission (SEC) of Bangladesh and government should take the short term and long term initiatives to
stabilize the market. They should encourage more public limited companies to offer more share to meet
the current demands. Income tax rebate, Injection of Market Stabilization Fund, Mandatory holding
certain percentage of share among the board of directors, short term incentives packages should be
introduced to get back the confidence among the existing investors. Regulatory bodies of Bangladesh
stock market must educate the current and potential investors about the market mechanism and provide
them the accurate information so that investors trade their shares carefully. Unless, there are any
corrective measures, Bangladeshi stock market will be facing this irrational downward of DGEN Index
again in the near future.

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