Lecture 5 A

(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

Probability for Engineering

Hydrology
CEW 503

(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

Flood ?
Risk ?

Probability?
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan
Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

Flood on 5 September 1999, Juru, Malaysia

Rare Events in Hydrology

There are three main areas where it is
useful to estimate the occurrence of
rare events:
Floods
Low flows (droughts)
Rainfall
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

Probability?
A mathematical basis for prediction, which,
for a huge set of outcome, is the ratio of the
outcomes that will produce a given event to
the total number of possible outcomes,

(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

Background
Variability in rainfall and the resulting
stream flow must be dealt with in
planning and design
We cannot predict future with reliable
degree of certainty Solution is to apply
methods of probability and statistics

(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

Why Use Probability in

Hydrologic Analysis?
Hydrological systems are complex in nature
Generalization of hydrologic features
Statement of probability that an event will
equal or exceed (or be less than) a specific
value
Not to eliminate but to reduce the frequency
of the event
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

Flood probability
Refer to Flood peaks
Must use relevant, adequate and accurate data
R = The data must indicate the problem
A = length of record
A = is the catchment is homogenous for last
10, 50 or 100 years ?
(bunds , dams, Urbanization >> influence the flow
records in various stages)
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

Length of Record Required to estimate floods

of various probabilities with 95 % confidence

Acceptable error
Design
Probability

10 %

25%

0.1
0.02
0.01

90
110
115

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(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

Flood Frequency

(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Annual Floods

For flooding considerations, we want to

estimate the probability of an extreme event
occurring in some time period.

(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Consider a levee adjacent to a

stream, where Q is the discharge that
just overtops the levee, and causes
flooding

(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Annual Floods

Define pqas the probability that discharge

equals or exceeds q at least once in a given
year
The probability that flow isnt exceeded is
the compliment, or 1 -pq

(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Annual Floods
For annual floods make the following
assumptions:
The exceedence probability in a given year
doesnt depend on what happened in
previous years
The exceedence probability is constant from
year to year
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Average Recurrence Interval (ARI)

Note: 100 yr floods do not occur every 100 years!
The average interval between annual floods
equaling or exceeding the 100 yr flood is 100
years
Actual interval is highly variable:
5% of time actual interval ! 300 yrs
5% of time actual interval < 5 yrs
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Average Recurrence Interval (ARI)

Instead of exceedence probabilities, we usually

refer to the recurrence interval of floods
Recurrence interval: The average interval of time
between events as rare or rarer than the given
event
For floods, recurrence interval is the average
interval of time between floods equaling or
exceeding q
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Return Period (Tr)

Given Tr = 100 yr. , what is the
probability that a given event will
occur in any one year?

Pr = 1/(Tr) = 1/100 = 0.01

0.1 = 10 years ARI
0.02 = 50 years ARI

Tr = 1/(Tr)

(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Risk Reliability & Safety Factor

Risk of Failure of a design project
Exp: a weir has design life period of 50 yrs
designed for ARI = 100 yrs
Known: the weir will fail if a flood Q > than
ARI 100 yrs within weir life (50 yrs)
P of occurrence an event (x xT) at least once
over a period of n successive years called RISK
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Example:
Given:
Expected life of Permatang Rawa Bridge = 25 years
Design ARI = 100 years
a) Risk of Hydraulic Design ?
b) What is the percentage of Reliability ?
c) If 10 % risk acceptable, what return period to be
adopted?
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Solution
a)

1
Therisk : R 1 1
T
Here, n 25 yrs, T 100 yrs
25

R 1 1

100
0.222
22.2% (The Inbuilt Risk)
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Solution
b)

25

1
If , Re 1 R 1
T
1 0.22
Hence, We can trust that there are 78 %
0.78 Chances, the bridge wont fail within the
design criteria's
78%
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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Solution
b)

If , R 10% 0.10
1
0.10 1 1
T

25

25

1
1 0.90
T
T 238 yrs
(c) Dr. Shanker Kumar Sinnakaudan

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