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Executive Summary
Despite the impact of the recession on the global economy, China and India
continue to develop as emerging market superpowers, avoiding many of the
negatives that have plagued other countries during the same time period.
Peter Soo
Managing Director, Head of Asia
ex-Japan Equities, Hong Kong
Elizabeth Soon, CFA
Managing Director, Portfolio
Manager, Asia ex-Japan Equities,
Hong Kong
Kheng-Lai Tan
Managing Director, Portfolio
Manager, Asia ex-Japan Equities,
Singapore
Natasha Smirnova
Senior Analyst, Emerging Markets
Fixed Income, London
Andressa Tezine
Vice President, Senior Research
Analyst, Emerging Markets Fixed
Income, London
These two BRIC nations sometimes referred in the same breath as Chindia
have managed to achieve consistent, uncorrelated growth based on dramatically
different governments, cultures and economic strengths.
This paper examines how both nations differ by outlook and opportunity set, and
their changing prospects for future cooperation and conflict as each pursues
its individual and joint path to economic progress. Based on this continuing
convergence, the European Central Bank (ECB) refers to China and India as
TheTwin Titans for the New Millennium.1
In examining their current trajectories, as well as each countrys tantalizing
future potential, investors may enjoy more benefits through a combination of
China and India opportunities, providing an optimum balance of risk, reward
and diversification. China and India appear to be an especially attractive play in
2010-2011, given the halting but sustained recovery that continues to play out
in the US, Europe and Japan.
Huzaifa Husain
Head of Equities-India, Portfolio
Manager, Mumbai
Ruchir N. Parekh
Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income,
Mumbai
Siddhartha Singh
Head of Product DevelopmentIndia/Product Specialist, Mumbai
1 European Central Bank, Occasional Paper: Twin Titans for the New Millenium 2008
200
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
100
Dec-03
300
Dec-02
India
400
Dec-99
Market Growth
MSCI India
MSCI China
500
China
600
Dec-01
fIGURE 1
Dec-00
fIGURE 2
(US$tn)
14
70
India
China
60
Chindia as a % of US (RHS)
10
50
40
30
20
10
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
% of US GDP
US GDP
12
Source: IMF, World Bank, UN, National Statistics Offices, CLSA AsiaPacific Markets, June 2010.
fIGURE 3
(US$billion)
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Indias trade
deficit with
China has
widened 30
times in the last
decade
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
-25
Fiscal Year
Source: India Macroscope: Imminent RMB Revaluation: Revisiting ChinaIndia Trade Flows, Citigroup Global Markets, Rohini Malkani and Anushka
Shah, 22 April 2010
fIGURE 4
China
Governmental efficiency
Free-market economy
Adequate infrastructure
India
Source: Deutsche Bank, Taimur Baig, Chief Economist, India. March, 2010
20 CNN 2009
21 Economic Times, 4 April 2010
Indian Equities
For all of its challenges, perhaps the biggest surprise in
India is the robust scope of the countrys technologically
advanced, high-speed stock market. As the oldest stock
market in Asia, dating back to 1875 (even older than
Japans), the robust Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)
numbers 6,600 listed companies only the NYSE has
more and settlement times are now a brisk T + 2. In
fact, the BSE was the second stock exchange in the
world to obtain ISO 9001:2000 certification.
In 2009, the average volume of business conducted on
the BSE was approximately US $40 billion each month,
and the total market capitalization for the companies
traded in the area of US $1.1 trillion.24 Opportunities
abound in India for savvy investors who are ready and
willing to take the long-term view. In 2009 and thus
far in 2010, India has delivered some of the strongest
equity performance of any emerging market. While the
Shanghai composite returned 78% in 2009, 25 Indias
SENSEX returned 80%.26
Long-standing corporate governance laws are also
in place that facilitate transparency. For example,
information about all major companies is readily
available through a Directors Database, as well as the
Indian Corporate Electronic Reporting System (ICERS).
Additionally, Fortune 500 companies continue to
invest in India across a spectrum of sectors: food and
beverages (Coca-Cola, PepsiCo), consumer durables
(Samsung, Philips, LG, Canon, Electrolux), automotives
(General Motors, Ford, Toyota), computers and software
services (IBM, Sun, Honeywell), pharmaceuticals
(GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer), consumer products (Unilever),
financial services (Citigroup, HSBC), insurance (Allianz,
Prudential), engineering (Siemens, ABB, Alstom,
Bombardier), logistics (FedEx), and petrochemicals and
chemicals (BP, Shell, BASF).
Confidence in Indias equity market has continued to
grow after the Congress Partys decisive win in the most
recent national elections. Immediately afterward, the
legislature began implementing much-needed, muchdelayed financial reforms.
Subsequently, the Congress Party has successfully
moved forward with two IPOs of government-owned
firms, further enhancing their reputation for raising
22 McKinsey Quarterly, July 2008
23 European Chamber of Commerce, 2010
24 CIA World Factbook, 2009
25 MSCI China, 2009
26 Money-zine.com, 2010
INDIA
In contrast, Indias currency continues to float against
the US dollar and offers much broader fixed income
potential. Its bond market has been well-developed
since the mid-1990s, and foreign institutional investors
are permitted, albeit constrained by quotas.
10
biographies
Elizabeth Soon, CFA, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager, Asia ex-Japan Equities
PineBridge Investments, Hong Kong
Ms. Soon joined the firm in 2008, having extensive experience in managing investment teams and
running Asia equity portfolios. She was Director and Head of the Pacific Basin for Standard Life
Investments (Asia) Ltd., where she was responsible for the management of the Groups Asian funds and
amember of the Global Stock and Sector Insights Committee (UK). Ms. Soon also spent 10 years at
Schroder Investment Management (HK), where she was Director and Head of Asia ex-Japan,
responsible for asset allocation and stock selection in Asia, and managing retail unit trusts and large
institutional portfolios. She is also a CFA charter holder and a board director of the Hong Kong Society
of Financial Analysts.
Andressa Tezine, Vice President, Senior Research Analyst, Emerging Markets Fixed Income
PineBridge Investments, London
Ms. Tezine joined the firm in 2005 as a Senior Analyst for Latin America. She is responsible for the
coverage of Latin American sovereign credits and market analysis. In 2008 she became Head of
Research for the Emerging Markets team. Prior to joining PineBridge Investments, she was a Senior
Analyst at ABN Amro Bank Brazil and also Dresdner Bank Lateinamerika. Ms Tezine began her investment
career in 1993 at Unibanco. She received a degree in Economics from the University of Sao Paulo and an
MSc in Economics from the Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona.
*The team members located in India are currently part of AIG India Asset Management Company and
are scheduled to transition to PineBridge Investments shortly.
PineBridge Investments is a group of international companies acquired by Pacific Century Group from American International Group, Inc. in March 2010. PineBridge companies
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