Intuitive.

Accurate.
Affordable.

Wind Flow Model

Wind Flow Model

All met sites used simutaneously to form site-calibrated models
The only commercially available wind flow model that is capable of using
more than one met site.

Only two required inputs

Topo XYZ data and Met TAB files.

No expert knowledge required

The site-calibration is automatically started when the TAB files are

imported.

All model parameters and results are exportable to .CSV

Not a black box software

Generates estimates of wind speed and gross AEP at turbine

sites or map nodes.
Can specift any area or grid resolution for map generation.
No limit on number of turbine power cuves.

...At A Glance
Performs a Round Robin
analysis where subsets of
met sites are used to
estimate the wind speed at
excluded met sites.

Every subset combination of

met sites are found using N-1,
N-2 and N-3 met sites and
models are created for each
combination
Determines how the estimate
uncertainty changes as mets are
added
Tests the robustness of the
model

Analyzes met data and

generates model in minutes

Quick to provide turbine

estimates and wind speed maps

Forms uncertainty estimates and produces P90/P99 estimates

of wind speed and AEP
Only commercially available wind flow model that generates uncertainty estimates.

Theory & Application

Continuum In a Nutshell

What is exposure?

Continuum (patent pending) is an exposure-based wind

flow model that utilizes all available met sites
simultaneously to generate four site-calibrated models.
Each model has a different radius of investigation (used to
calculate the exposure) which range from 4000 to 10,000
m. The four site-calibrated models are used to form
estimates of the wind speed and gross annual energy
production (AEP) at the turbine sites and/or at map nodes.

Exposure is defined as a weighted average of

the elevation difference between a given point
and the surrounding terrain within a given
radius of investigation weighted by the inverse
distance.

Between each pair of met sites and from each met site to
every turbine site and/or map node, a path of nodes is
created where there is a small change in the exposure and
elevation from one node to the next. Based on the wind
direction and the terrain complexity at each node, the
model coefficients are determined from the model
relationships and the wind speed is calculated along the
path of nodes as the upwind and downwind exposure
changes from the met site to the turbine or map node.

How is wind speed estimated?

Continuum uses a two-parameter linear relationship
that describes the change in wind speed with changes
in the upwind and downwind terrain. There are two
coefficients, mDW and mUW , which describe the sensitivity

of the wind speed to changes in the downwind (DW) and

upwind (UW) exposure.

If wind is flowing uphill,

the model coefficient is:

If UW<UWCRIT then
If the wind speed is known at Site 1 then the wind speed
at Site 2 can be estimated by analyzing the differences in
the UW and DW terrain from Site 1 to Site 2 in each wind
direction sector.

What do the model coefficients represent?

The model coefficients describe how sensitive the
wind speed is to changes in the upwind or downwind
terrain exposure.
As derived from NavierStokes conservation of
momentum equation, if
wind is flowing downhill,
the model coefficient is:

hill but if UW>UW CRIT then

and the wind speeds up over

and the wind

decelerates.
Model coefficients are a function of gravity, g, and the
vertical pressure gradient force ( ) which is related to
atmospheric stability. They are also a function of the
velocity flow field
which is related to terrain
complexity. They are defined in log-log relationships
as a function of P10 Exposure which is a measure of
terrain complexity and site-calibrated log-log
relationships are found for each wind direction sector.

Why is a path of nodes created?

Since the terrain complexity can vary across a project
area and since the model coefficients are a function of
terrain complexity, the wind speeds are calculated in a
stepwise fashion.
Between each pair of met sites and from each met site to
every turbine or map node, a path of nodes with a gradual
change in terrain complexity is found. The model
coefficients are determined at each node based on the
site-calibrated log-log relationships and the wind speed is
calculated along the path of nodes.

How are the models site-calibrated?

Once the met sites are imported, Continuum finds a path of

nodes between each pair of met sites and cross-predicts
the wind speed using the default log-log relationships.
Then using a self-learning algorithm, the log-log
relationships are varied and the met cross-predictions are
regenerated. The log-log relationships that yield the
minimum met cross- prediction error are found and these
form the site-calibrated model.

Case Study: Five Met Sites at Moderately

Complex Site in North Dakota
The topo data and met TAB files were entered
into Continuum and the four site-calibrated
models were found. The met site cross-prediction
error is summarized in the table to the right.
The wind speed at each met site was estimated
using the Continuum model and the comparison
between the actual and estimated wind speed are
shown in the two plots below. The RMS error of
the wind speed estimate was 0.026 m/s (or
0.31%).

Validation

Site - Calibrated Model Results

Radius of
Investigation,
m

Met Cross Prediction RMS

Error

4000

0.64%

6000

0.47%

8000

0.57%

10000

0.37%

~50 km

To test the robustness of the model, the Round Robin analysis was run
where subsets of the met sites are used to form a model and predict the
wind speed at the excluded met sites. The results are shown in the plots to
the right.
When two mets were used, the RMS error of the wind speed estimates was
0.107 m/s (or 1.21%). As more mets were added to the model, the wind speed
estimate error reduced and, with four mets used in the model, the RMS error
of the estimates dropped to 0.043 m/s (or 0.49%).

RMS

Num Mets Error, m/s

RMS

Error, %

0.107

1.21%

0.071

0.80%

0.043

0.49%

0.026

0.31%

Whats new in

Uses local SQL database to store calculated values

1.1?

Keeps file size small and manageable even with several large, high-res wind speed or AEP maps
Continuously saves to database as WS or AEP map is generated
If Windows reboots or Continuum is accidentally closed, all calculations are safe and retrieved from the database
when the map generation is restarted.
Searches stored data for previously calculated data to help speed up map generation.

Generates site-calibrated
models on a sectorwise-basis
Model coefficients vary as a
function of wind direction to better
model sectorwise variations in
mean atmospheric stability

Accepts and exports either

UTM coordinates or
Lat/Long in TAB files and
turbine imports/exports
Accepts any topo data
resolution

Pricing & Contact

$US 4000 for a single user license and one-year of free customer support.
$US 500 annual fee for customer support after first year
Contact:
Liz Walls, Co-Founder, Engineering | liz@cancalia.com

Email Liz for a free 5-day trial (5 unique days) of Continuum!

Visit our website at www.cancalia.com