How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

This is a brief guide on the advanced sports trading technique of Middles & Sides

INTRODUCTION

Middles (and Sides) are a This compares with the average

particular type of low-risk trade
which takes advantage of
differences of opinion between
bookmakers over handicaps and/or
total scores
When A Middle is successful, both
sides of the trade win resulting in
a double-payout. When a Side is
successful, one bet wins whilst the
other has its stake returned.
In both cases, the wins can be
significant compared to the low
risks involved.
Although it is impossible to predict
the future, a professional middles
trader can probably expect to
make an average of about 5% per
trade over the course of a year.
arbitrage profit of around 3%
Of course, your actual percentage
return will depend on how actively
you trade – a trader who places
1000 middles over the year will
have significantly better success
than a trader who places just 50 in
the same period.
Middles & Sides are generally
found in 2 types of market:
runlines (handicap match-bets)
and total points markets.
[A special type of risk-free Middle
can also be found in soccer
markets using cross-market
trading techniques]

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

EXAMPLES

Example 1: Runline Middle

Team A Team B

Bookie 1 H’Cap +9 H’Cap -9

Price 1.91 Price 1.91

Bookie 2 H’Cap +5 H’Cap -5

Price 1.91 Price 1.91

A 4-point Middle exists between

Bookmaker 1’s [+9] on Team A and

Bookmaker 2’s [-5] on Team B

The table on the next page displays all of the possible outcomes for a
trader who invests a total of $500 ($250 on each team) on this Middle.

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

MATCH OUTCOME RESULT OF THE TRADER’S MIDDLE/SIDE/

BETS PROFIT/LOSS LOSS

Team A loses by Bet On $477.50 - $500 = LOSS = $22.50

more than 9 points Team B Wins - $22.50

Team A loses Bet On $477.50 + $250

by 5 points Team A Wins - $500 = SIDE
+$227.50
Bet On + $227.50
Team B Pushes

Team A loses Bet On $477.50 + $250

by exactly 9 points Team B Wins - $500 = SIDE
+$227.50
Bet On + $227.50
Team A Pushes

Team A loses Bet On $477.50 + $477.50

by 6, 7 or 8 points Team A Wins - $500 MIDDLE
+$455
Bet On = WIN $455
Team B Wins

Team A Loses by Bet On $477.50 - $500 = LOSS = $22.50

1, 2, 3 or 4 Points Team A Wins - $22.50

Team A Wins Bet On $477.50 - $500 = LOSS = $22.50

Team A Wins - $22.50

There are 7 outcomes which will result in a loss of $22.50

There are 2 outcomes which will result in a win of $227.50

There are 3 outcomes which will result in a win of $455.00

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

EXAMPLES

Example 2: Totals (Under/Over) Middle

Bookie 1 Under 25 Over 25

Price 1.91 Price 1.91

Bookie 2 Under 35 Over 35

Price 1.91 Price 1.91

A 10-point Middle exists between

Bookmaker 1’s [Over 25] and

Bookmaker 2’s [Under 35]

The table on the next page displays all of the possible outcomes for a
trader who invests a total of $500 ($250 on each team) on this Middle.

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

MATCH OUTCOME RESULT OF THE TRADER’S MIDDLE/SIDE/

BETS PROFIT/LOSS LOSS

UNDER 25 Bet On $477.50 - $500 = LOSS = $22.50

UNDER 35 Wins - $22.50

Bet On $477.50 + $250

UNDER 35 Wins - $500 = SIDE
EXACTLY 25 +$227.50
Bet On + $227.50
OVER 25 Pushes

Bet On $477.50 + $250

OVER 25 Wins - $500 = SIDE
EXACTLY 35 +$227.50
Bet On + $227.50
UNDER 35 Pushes

26, 27, 28, 29, 30, Bet On $477.50 + $477.50

31, 32, 33, 34 OVER 25 Wins - $500 MIDDLE
+$455
Bet On = WIN $455
UNDER 35 Wins

OVER 35 Bet On $477.50 - $500 = LOSS = $22.50

OVER 35 Wins - $22.50

There are 2 outcomes which will result in a loss of $22.50

There are 2 outcomes which will result in a win of $227.50

There are 9 outcomes which will result in a win of $455.00

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

EXAMPLES

Example 3: Cross Market Middle

A lot of cross-market sports arbitrage trades use bets whose

properties include refunds under certain conditions, whilst other
bets in the trade payout as winners.

This is the same property that makes Middles profitable. However,

since cross market trades are also arbitrage trades, there are no
outcomes which result in a loss.

Bookie 1 Sampdoria (+2) 1.30

Bookie 2 Livorno (-1.5) 4.20

Bookie 3 Livorno (-2.5) 8.00

The first thing to notice is that to any conventional sports arbitrage

trader, these prices would not indicate that an arb exists. Convert the
prices into percentages and they sum to over 113%

However, this is an arb. Here's why...

Sampdoria (+2) pays out fully if Sampdoria wins, draws or loses by 1

goal. It's refunded completely if they lose by exactly 2 goals

Livorno (-1.5) pays out fully if Livorno wins by more than 1 goal

Livorno (-2.5) pays out fully if Livorno wins by more than 2 goals

The table on the next page displays all of the possible outcomes for a
trader who invests a total of $100 on this trade.

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

There are many different ways that a trader might choose to apportion
his stakes in this trade: for equal payout regardless of result or for a
higher payout for any pair of outcomes or any single outcome.
Click here for more detailed information about cross market trading
In this example, we apportion the stakes to favour the outcome of
Livorno winning by 2 goals:
Sampdoria (+2): $77.00 | Livorno (-1.5): $22.00 | Livorno (-2.5): $1.00

MATCH SAMPDORIA LIVORNO LIVORNO TOTAL

OUTCOME (+2) (-1.5) (-2.5) PAYOUT

SAMPDORIA $100.10 0 0 $100.10

WINS

DRAW $100.10 0 0 $100.10

LIVORNO 0 0
WINS BY $100.10 $100.10
1 GOAL

LIVORNO 0
WINS BY $77.00 $92.40 $169.40
2 GOALS

LIVORNO 0 $92.40 $8
WINS BY $100.10
MORE THAN
2 GOALS

Notice that all possible outcomes are covered without any risk. Your total
investment in the trade is 100 and you stand to make back 169.40 if the
result is Livorno wins by 2 goals.

That's a risk-free profit of almost 70%

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

TRAP NUMBERS

Trap Numbers (sometimes referred to as key numbers) need to be taken

into account when calculating the value of a middle.

These numbers arise due to nuances in a particular sport. For example, in

NFL between 1982 to 2001 3 numbers stand out:

Just over 10% of matches priced at +7 finished at +7.

Just over 10% of matches priced at +3 finished at +3.
Well under 1% of matches finished on 0 (a tie).

In contrast, for other handicaps, the outcome of the match finished on

the number of the time.

Ties in NFL are almost non-existent because there is usually a score in

overtime. The scoring in NFL is 3 points for field goals, 5 for a touchdown
and 2 for a conversion, which means that the scores usually increase by 3
or 7 each time.

Thus, 3 and 7 are Trap numbers in NFL.

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

HOW DO I GET STARTED?

Trading Middles & Sides is not for everyone. With the opportunity for
higher profits come risks (except with risk-free cross market trades).

Although these risks are tightly controlled, if you are risk-averse then you
will probably prefer to concentrate on sports arbitrage.

However, if trading middles & sides does interest you, then the
automated service within the TraderZone may be just what you need.

Using the same engine which locates sports arbitrage trades, our servers
scan for middles & sides in the following sports:

MLB | NBA | NHL | NFL | Rugby | Soccer

The suite of Middles filters allows you to define with precision exactly
what type of trades you will receive. You will be able to change your
settings at any time in order to experiment with your trading.

To try it out for free, just log into the TraderZone.

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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

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