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91100
2007 by the Ecological Society of America
AND
MARC ESTIARTE2
1
Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Auto`noma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra, Spain
Unitat dEcosiologia CSIC-CEAB-CREAF, CREAF (Centre de Recerca Ecolo`gica i Aplicacions Forestals),
Universitat Auto`noma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra, Spain
Abstract. In general, the socioeconomic analysis of natural systems does not enter into
the realms of natural science. This paper, however, estimates the human-welfare effects of
possible physicochemical and biological impacts of climate change on Mediterranean
shrublands over the coming 50 years. The contingent choice method was applied to elicit
the trade-offs in perceived values for three climate-sensitive attributes of shrubland (plant
cover, re risk, and soil erosion) and for the costs of programs designed to mitigate changes.
Soil erosion was found to be the attribute of shrubland that most concerned the population,
followed by re risk and then plant cover. An increase of 1% in the shrubland area affected by
erosion was estimated to cost each person on average 2.9 euros per year in terms of lost
welfare, a gure that is equivalent in terms of perceptions of social welfare to an increase of
0.24% in the shrub area burned annually and a decrease of 3.19% in the area of plant cover.
These trade-off values may help ecologists, policy makers, and land managers to take social
preferences into account.
Key words: Catalonia; climate change; contingent choice method; human welfare effects of climate
change; land management policy; Mediterranean shrubs; plant-cover lossre riskerosion trade-offs;
shrublands; social valuation of environmental-impact choices; valuation.
INTRODUCTION
Mediterranean shrublands occupy extensive areas of
the Mediterranean region (Fig. 1a) and have signicant
functions as ecosystems and provide several provisioning, regulatory, and cultural services (Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment 2005). On the Iberian Peninsula
shrublands cover greater areas than in any European
country (Fig. 1a) and, as in many other areas of Europe,
have been spreading over the last few decades (Tarrega
et al. 2001). This spread is the result of secondary
succession in abandoned pastures and croplands and of
more frequent disturbances in Mediterranean forests
such as increasing re recurrence (Thanos and Marcou
1991, Tarrega et al. 2001, Diaz-Delgado et al. 2002).
The availability of water in Mediterranean shrublands
is a key factor determining vegetation composition and
the patterns of plant distribution. Progressive aridication has taken place over the last few decades as a result
of increased evapotranspiration (caused by 18C average
warming) without any parallel increase in rainfall (Pinol
et al. 1998, Penuelas et al. 2002, Penuelas and Boada
2003). Further warming and aridication are forecast
over the coming decades (IPCC 2001, Penuelas et al.
2004b), and current and future warming and aridication processes will surely have important consequences
Manuscript received 20 October 2005; revised 6 March 2006;
accepted 17 April 2006; nal version received 9 May 2006.
Corresponding Editor: P. Frumhoff.
3 E-mail: pere.riera@uab.es
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FIG. 1. Schlerophyllous shrublands (a) in the Mediterranean region (source: European Environment Agency/CORINE land
cover CLC90) and (b) in Catalonia (source: Land cover of Catalonia (2000-2003) hhttp://www.creaf.uab.es/mcsci). The dark areas
are shrublands.
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PLATE 1. Field experimental facilities to study climate change effects on Mediterranean shrublands located at Parc Natural del
Garraf, in Catalonia, Spain. Scaffolding supports a folded roof (at the right) and a motor box (at the left). When activated, the
motor unfolds the roof to cover the vegetation. Climate warming is simulated at night by unfolding a roof made of an infrared
reecting material that keeps the ecosystem 18C warmer than the annual average. Drought is simulated covering the vegetation with
an impermeable roof during rain events for some pre-established periods (see Penuelas et al. [2004a] for more details). Photo credit:
Paula Bruna.
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TABLE 1. The three ecological attributes and levels used in the contingent choice exercise.
Attribute
Description
Levels
Plant cover
Fire risk
Soil erosion
Payment
The required payment per person per year for shrubland management
programs
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FIG. 2.
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Source of variation
Constant
Plant cover
Fire risk
Soil erosion
Payment
Income B2
Income B3
Income B4
Income C2
Income C3
Income C4
Age2
Age3
Age4
Coefficient
(mean 6 SE)
t ratio
0.93
0.02
0.33
0.07
0.02
0.25
1.18
0.96
0.97
1.26
0.42
0.04
0.06
0.03
2.151*
2.469*
5.237**
5.774**
2.192*
0.574
2.720**
2.316*
1.850
2.284*
0.750
4.917**
7.145**
3.406**
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
0.43
0.01
0.06
0.01
0.01
0.44
0.43
0.41
0.52
0.55
0.56
0.01
0.01
0.01
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Variable
Respondent
consideration (%)
Plant cover
Fire risk
Soil erosion
Payment
Years
51.4
48.6
71.2
45.9
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Although there was no explicit question that investigated the reason for this preference, erosion problems in the
southeast of the Iberian Peninsula and in the Mediterranean basin in general are often discussed by the media
in Spain and are seen as being connected to desertication and poverty. This result is also in line with the
ndings of Scott et al. (1998), a study that dealt with the
valuation of shrub-steppe dryland habitat functions in
the United States. Scott et al. used different methods to
value different attributes (erosion, recreation, and
alternative land-uses). An attribute that their paper
and ours has in common is soil erosion, which Scott et
al. (1998) valued using ve different approaches. Next to
the value of land for urban use, preventing soil erosion
was found to be the most valuable attribute.
The sign and statistical signicance of the results
obtained are consistent with welfare economic theory
and expectations. For instance, the estimated willingness
to pay increases with income and decreases with age, a
result also reported in several other studies (see for
instance Willis and Garrod [1998] or Farreras et al.
[2005]). The debrieng questions revealed no worrying
inconsistencies from the respondents and we found in
the rst part of the questionnaire that only very
exceptionally, did plant cover, which incorporates an
aesthetic component, have a negative value and re and
erosion a positive value within the levels considered.
These answers were consistent with those given in the
valuation section.
There is some uncertainty associated with the effects
of climate change and when and to what extent they will
occur. The answers obtained in the survey ought to be
seen as contingent on the information given and to the
uncertainty perceived by each respondent. Regarding
time, we asked people whether their choices were
inuenced by the 50-year time horizon (as opposed to
25 or 100 years). While the majority of people said they
did bear in mind that the time horizon was 50 years, only
10% of respondents stated that their choices might have
changed if these other time horizons had been used. A
similar conclusion has been reached by Kinnell et al.
(2002), who tested hunters willingness to pay for
reducing the effects of climate change on the duck
population of the Prairie Pothole Region at 40 and 100year time horizons. Layton and Brown (2000) also
reached a similar conclusion. Using the contingent
choice method, they looked at the value of preventing
forest losses induced by climate change along the
Colorado Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. They
used a 60- and 150-year time scale and found that this
made no signicant difference to respondents answers,
concluding that people probably do not care very much
if something occurs in the long run or in the very long
run.
There is also some uncertainty reected in the large
error bars associated with trade-offs between re risk
and other attributes. This seems to reect a heterogeneous preference composition of the surveyed popula-
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APPENDIX
The valuation-study questionnaire used to survey Catalan citizens for their trade-off preferences among changes in plant cover,
re risk, and soil erosion, and their willingness to pay for management practices and/or new policies that would mitigate the
intensity of such changes (Ecological Archives A017-005-A1).