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***Mexico Economy

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Mexico Economy Advantage Frontline

First, Mexico economy growing now - auto industry
Klier, 6-13 (Thomas, senior economist in economic research department at Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago, published scholarly journals including Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, MBA from
Frierich-Alexander-Universitaet Erlangen-Nuernberg, Germany, PhD in economics from Michigan State
University, Mexicos Growing Role in the North American Auto Industry, June 13, 2013,
http://midwest.chicagofedblogs.org/archives/2013/06/klier_blog.html) Harbeck

Mexicos auto industry has experienced tremendous growth since the mid-1980s. Last year, 19% of all
light vehicles produced in North America originated in Mexico (see table 1). That is up sharply from 20
years ago and puts Mexico ahead of Canada in terms of the number of vehicles produced Table 1:
Distribution of light vehicle production in North AmericaOn May 30, a panel of distinguished experts gathered at an event hosted by the Detroit branch
of the Chicago Fed to discuss factors behind Mexicos growth as a vehicle producer.Most of the presentations are available here.
Also, see a recent Chicago Fed Letter on the same topic.Mexico has a long history of vehicle production; by the late-1930s Ford, GM, and Chrysler were
producing vehicles in the country. Over the years,

the Mexican auto industry was shaped by economic development

policies put in place by the Mexican government. Starting in the mid-1960s, a policy of import
substitution favored production of vehicles and parts within Mexico. A number of years later, the
policy focus changed to export promotion, which encouraged Mexican producers to seek international
markets for their products. In 1995, Mexico, the U.S., and Canada signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta). It established
a framework and set out a timetable for boosting trade among the three countries . In the process, Mexico has become a very
attractive export platform for North, Central, and South America (see table 2). In fact, the country has
negotiated more than 40 free trade agreements, more than any other North American country. In
addition, Mexico has benefited from a general improvement in its manufacturing competitiveness during the past few years. Its productivity-adjusted
wages are the lowest among major manufacturing countries, it is an energy rich country, and it has a history of manufacturing (35% of the countrys
GDP is represented by manufacturing).

And, Mexico's economy is resilient - ability to withstand growing drug violence proves
Thomas White International 12 (January 27, 2012,Mexico: The glow of economic
resilience lightens the shadows of violence, http://www.thomaswhite.com/worldmarkets/mexico-the-glow-of-economic-resilience-lightens-the-shadows-of-violence/ )Wave3seo
But, surprisingly, the Mexican economy has so far remained somewhat impervious
to all that violence. GDP growth last year was relatively healthy and the expected
slowdown during the current year is likely to be a minor dip rather than a steep
fall. Domestic consumer demand has held up, supported by nearly $23 billion in
remittances during 2011 from Mexicans working abroad. Industrial investments
are flowing in from abroad, and last year were estimated by the UN at close to $18
billion. Despite higher consumer prices in recent months, inflation remains under
control and has allowed the central bank to maintain interest rates relatively low.
It is interesting that much of the economys resilience is rooted in the sustained
buoyancy in export shipments, especially of manufactured goods, when consumer
demand in the U.S., the destination for most of Mexicos exports, has not been
particularly robust. This suggests Mexicos improved export competitiveness and,
in fact, Mexico has been steadily increasing its share in the total import basket of
its northern neighbor. The most significant driver of this trend are rising labor
and other costs in China and in neighboring Asian countries that are the principal
suppliers into the U.S. market. Even though the average wages in Mexico are still
higher than most developing countries in Asia, the competitive edge in that Far
East region has gradually declined when aggregate costs are considered. The close
proximity to the U.S., which allows greater logistical flexibility in response to
short-term demand fluctuations, adds to Mexicos luster in the eyes of large
manufacturers.

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Mexico Econ Adv - Exts #1 - High now

Mexico's economy will continue to grow - Pena Nieto reforms and trade
The Economist, 2012 (Cheaper than China and with credit and oil about to start flowing, Mexico is
becoming a Brazil-beater, November 24, 2012, http://www.economist.com/news/specialreport/21566782-cheaper-china-and-credit-and-oil-about-start-flowing-mexicobecoming?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/se_ores_start_your_engines) Harbeck
Once shuttered off by tariffs and trade controls, Mexico has opened up to become a place where the world does business. The North
American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which in 1994 eliminated most tariffs between Mexico, the United States and Canada,
was only the beginning: Mexico now

boasts free-trade deals with 44 countries, more than any other nation.

In northern and central Mexico German companies turn out electrical components for Europe, Canadian firms assemble aircraft parts and factory after factory makes televisions, fridge-freezers and much else.

Each year Mexico exports manufactured goods to about the same value as the rest of Latin America
put together. Trade makes up a bigger chunk of its GDP than of any other large countrys.

Normally that

would be a good thing, but after the 2007-08 financial crisis it meant that Mexico got a terrible walloping. Thanks to its wide-open
economy and high exposure to the United States it suffered the steepest recession on the American mainland: in 2009 its economy
shrank by 6%. The country had already had a rocky decade. When China joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001, it started
undercutting Mexicos export industry. In the ten years to 2010 Mexicos economy grew by an average of just 1.6% a year, less than
half the rate of Brazil, which flourished in part by exporting commodities to China. But

now changes are under way, in

Mexicos factories, its financial sector and even its oil and gas fields, that augur well for a very
different decade. Latin Americas perennial underachiever grew faster than Brazil last year and will repeat the trick this year, with a rate of about 4% against less than 2% in Brazil. Mr Pea
is aiming to get annual growth up to 6% before his six-year presidency is over. By the end of this
decade Mexico will probably be among the worlds ten biggest economies; a few bullish forecasters
think it might even become the largest in Latin America. How did Mexico achieve such a turnround?
Chinas cut-price export machine sucked billions of dollars of business out of Mexico. But now Asian wages and transport costs are rising and
companies are going west. The China factor is changing big-time, says Jim ONeill, the Goldman Sachs economist who in 2001 coined the
BRICs acronymBrazil, Russia, India and Chinamuch to Mexicos irritation. China is no longer as cheap as it used to be. According to HSBC,
a bank, in 2000 it cost just $0.32 an hour to employ a Chinese manufacturing worker, against $1.51 for a Mexican one. By last year Chinese
wages had quintupled to $1.63, whereas Mexican ones had risen only to $2.10 (see chart 1). The minimum wage in Shanghai and Qingdao is
now higher than in Mexico City and Monterrey, not least because of the rocketing renminbi. Right next door Hauling

goods from
Asia to America is costlier too. The price of oil has trebled since the start of the century, making it
more attractive to manufacture close to markets. A container can take three months to travel from
China to the United States, whereas products trucked in from Mexico can take just a couple of days.
Mexico the worlds cheapest place to
manufacture goods destined for the United States, undercutting China as well as countries such as
AlixPartners, a consultancy, said last year that the joint effect of pay, logistics and currency fluctuations had made

India and Vietnam. Companies have noticed. When you wipe away the PR and look at the real numbers, Mexico is startlingly
good, says Louise Goeser, the regional head of Siemens, a German multinational. Siemens employs 6,000 people at 13 factories and three
research centres around Mexico. From its recently enlarged facility in Quertaro, in central Mexico, surge-arrestors and
transformers trundle up to warehouses in the central United States in two days. Ms Goeser says that Mexican workers are well qualified
as well as cheap: more engineers graduate in Mexico each year than in Germany, she points out. In Aguascalientes, not far away,

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Nissan is building a $2 billion factory. Together with an existing facility it will turn out a car nearly every 30 seconds. About 80% of
the parts in each car are made in Mexico. By using local suppliers, the company is armoured against currency fluctuations, says
Jos Luis Valls, head of Nissan Mexico. If you are localised, you can navigate through floods and storms. If you depend on imports
of components, you are very fragile. In nearby Guanajuato Mazda and Honda are building factories; Audi is constructing a $1.3
billion plant in Puebla. This year Mexico will turn out roughly 3m vehicles, making it the worlds fourth-biggest auto exporter. When
the new factories are up and running, capacity will be 4m. According to projections by HSBC, in six years time the United States
will be more dependent on imports from Mexico than from any other country (see chart 2). Soon Hecho en Mxico will become
more familiar to Americans than Made in China. On the opposite side of Cuernavaca from Nissans gigantic factory, Antonio
Snchez plays a smaller role in Mexicos motor business. At his carwash customers queue to pay 46 pesos ($3.60) for their cars to
gleam in the ever-present sun. Mr Snchez seems to have enough business to open another branch, but credit is scarce and
expensive. He explains that banks tend to charge interest rates of 25% or more and demand collateral worth three times the value of
the loan. Its complicated, expensive and the risk is too much, he says. Mexican businesses have been fighting with one hand tied
behind their backs, thanks to a chronic credit drought. Lending is equivalent to 26% of GDP, compared with 61% in Brazil and 71%
in Chile. The drought started with the tequila crisis of 1994, when a currency devaluation triggered the collapse of the countrys
loosely regulated banking system. Banks spent the best part of a decade dealing with their dodgy legacy assets and were nervous
about making new loans. But things are looking up. Inflation, now running at 4.6%, has been well under control for ten years. The
conservatively run Mexican subsidiaries of foreign banks such as BBVA, Citigroup and Santander are all rated higher than their
American or European parent companies. Now they are starting to turn on the credit tap. Loans to companies are growing at 12% a
year and to individuals at 23%. Given that many enterprises are informal, many of these personal loans probably go to businesses,
according to David Olivares of Moodys, a ratings agency. There are many financing opportunities in Mexico that are not tapped, says
Agustn Carstens, the governor of the central bank. This gives Mexico an advantage over other Latin American countries that are deep in debt.
Five to six consecutive years of loan growth, coupled with macroeconomic stability, would increase Mexicos annual growth rate by half a
percentage point, the central bank estimates. As credit starts flowing, so could oil. Since striking black gold in the 1970s, Mexico

has been one of the worlds ten biggest oil producers. The revenues of Pemex, the state-run oil and
gas monopoly, provide about a third of the governments income.

Mexico's economy will continue to be competitive - energy, trade, industrial sector

Connelle, 2013 (Claudia, executive director of Mexican Association of Industrial Parks, 23
years of experience in international business with private and public sector, Why Made in
Mexico Means Quality and Competitiveness, January, 2013,
http://www.siteselection.com/issues/2013/jan/mexico.cfm) Harbeck

Suddenly, the eyes of investors turned toward Mexico, and not because of the violence unleashed by the drug war. It seems that the
land of the tequila is becoming one of the favorite sites for global companies looking to expand their business operations worldwide.

We have found in Mexico an attractive industrial environment and a ready supply of skilled labor,
said Serge Durand, CEO of Eurocopter de Mexico, in October 2011, during the construction launch of a new
manufacturing plant in the city of Quertaro, with an investment value of a US$550 million. Although Mexico still faces
important challenges, the country is turning into the new little darling of emerging markets, as
mentioned by Kenneth Rapoza in Forbes magazine, on July 2012. There are several reasons and facts that explain why this
nation reflects an important economic evolution, achieved in only 25 years. Reason number one is the opening of the market,

Mexico has 12 free trade

agreements with 44 countries, including NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement signed with the United States and
started in 1986, when the country joined the GATT, later the World Trade Organization. Now

Canada, in effect since 1994. Since then, the average trade tariff fell from 27 percent to 6.9 percent. The opening policy also included

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the financial and foreign direct investment liberalization of sectors not considered as strategic for the nation. Mexico was

also
able to make a strategic change in its exports structure. In the 1980s, 61 percent of Mexicos export
products were crude oil. At present, 81 percent of its exports are manufactured goods, of which 24
percent are high-tech products, including aerospace, computers, non-electronic machinery, electronictelecommunications, weapons, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and scientific instruments, according to INEGI
(Mexicos National Statistics Institute). Mexico is now inserted vertically into the most important segments of global production
chains, as 60 percent of FDI inflows received by the country go to manufacturing. Thanks

to all these changes, the

country is now one of the worlds most important export platforms and an ideal base from which to
supply international markets, Rupert Stadler, chairman of the Board of Management of Audi AG, told the Financial Times
in September 2012. Today, this nation of 114 million people is the leading world exporter of flat screen TVs and the second leading
exporter of refrigerators. It is also the major supplier of medical devices to the U.S. market, the eighth producer and the fourth
exporter of new vehicles, as well as the main supplier of auto parts to the U.S. market, where 11 percent of all cars and light trucks
are produced in Mexico. Moreover, of total U.S. imports, 24 percent of automotive products, 23 percent of chemicals and 21 percent
of electronics are coming from the other side of the countrys southern border. Global

automakers have announced new

direct investments in Mexico of about $15 billion, making Mexico the worlds fourth biggest exporter
of automobiles, behind Germany, Japan and South Korea, with exports expected to be around 2.14 million vehicles by the end
of 2012.

Mexico growing most recent evidence proves

Rico, 6-14 (Gabriela, writes for Arizona Daily Star, Mexico growing on manufacturers,
June 14, 2013, http://azstarnet.com/business/local/mexico-growing-onmanufacturers/article_6e4804e7-35e7-52fd-b0ea-c13e20cc5cfd.html) Harbeck
"Made in China" is giving way to "Hecho en Mexico," attendees at the Arizona-Mexico Commission's plenary session heard Thursday.

Rising fuel

costs, coupled with higher labor costs in China, make North America more appealing to
manufacturing companies, said Christopher Wilson, associate of the Mexico Institute for the Woodrow Wilson Center.That is a financial
boon for the United States - and especially for states along the Mexican border - because the shorter supply chain means bigger
profits, he told the crowd of Arizona and Sonora business leaders and politicians meeting in Scottsdale.For every dollar spent on manufacturing in
China, the U.S. earns 4 cents, Wilson said. If that company manufactures in Mexico, the earnings are 40 cents. Mexico's economy is
growing faster than the U.S. economy, and although ours is much larger, "we have
a chance to tap into that growing economy,"

Wilson said.He said monopoly breakups, education reforms and a

pact among the three main political parties could have a positive effect on Mexico's credit rating, making it more attractive to foreign investors."The
hypothesis of saying 'We have to go to China' is fading," said Juan Carlo Briseo, who is with the Mexican Ministry of Economy's Pro Mexico
program.

Mexico has emerged as a leader in the manufacturing of automobiles,

medical devices, electronics and aerospace components. Now China is casting a curious eye on the
country to see what it's doing right, Briseo said.In Sonora, where the average age is 25, aerospace

manufacturing has taken off in

the past couple of years with big companies readying to announce further expansion of existing
operations.Sonora has five international airports, two with cargo capacity, Briseo noted, making it
a natural attraction.Its proximity to Arizona as an export entryway is a selling point, he said.The overview was presented in anticipation of
today's sessions, when committees will meet to map out or approve joint plans and ventures in the areas of economic development, energy, real estate
and infrastructure.Just a little over a decade ago, the focus on these commission meetings was to school Mexico on how to do business with the United
States, said Bruce Wright, associate vice president for university research at the University of Arizona."How refreshing for you in the Sonora business
world to hear us talking about how to do business with Mexico," he said.The Arizona-Mexico Commission meeting is being hosted by Arizona Gov. Jan
Brewer and Sonora Gov. Guillermo Padres.The two governors are expected to address the crowd today and will host a joint news conference.

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Mexicos economy is growing and strong

Spencer, 2013 (Linda, writes for SEMA, worldwide automotive company, Considering Mexico
Strong Growth and Fatter Pocketbooks Warrant a Closer Look at the Potential in Latin
Americas Second-Largest Economy, March, 2013, http://www.sema.org/semaenews/2013/13/opportunities-in-mexico-potential-in-latin-americas-second-largest-economy)
Harbeck
i ts economy grew 4% last yearquicker than even Brazils . Credit is increasingly
available, inflation is under control and more of the population is joining the middle class, according
to a new study put out by the Wilson Center based in Washington, D.C. Sizable Passenger Vehicle Market and
Healthy Annual Sales: Mexico has 20 million motor vehicles in circulation, with strong annual sales of
about 1 million. Mexicans Love Trucks: Mexican motorists enjoy and use light trucks. Between 20052011, 40% of all
vehicles sold in Mexico were pickups and SUVs. Similar Vehicle Demographics: Many of the vehicles sold in Mexico are the
same models that sell well in the United States. Between 20052011, the best-selling pickups in Mexico were Fords F-150 and F250, with 232,810 units sold. The Chevrolet Silverado was also a top model, with 164,928 sold during that period. Jeep sales were
also strong, with 145,397 sold between 20052011, and Ford also sold 13,511 Mustangs between those same years. The

country is an increasingly important gateway to the rest of Latin America. Mexico

has free-trade agreements with 44 countriesmore than any other country in the
worldincluding the 2004 North American Free Trade Agreement, which
eliminated most tariffs between Mexico, Canada and the United States. No
Argentinian or Brazilian Tariffs: Among the many trade deals negotiated by Mexico is its most recently modified pact with
Argentina, which allows Mexico to export up to $600 million in Mexican vehicles to that country without tariffs. Mexico also has a
free-trade deal with Brazil. Both Brazil and Argentina are notorious for their high tariffs, but their agreements with Mexico allow
vehicles and partsup to a certain limitto be shipped to those countries tariff free. OEM Production: There

are nine
manufacturers producing vehicles in Mexico, including Ford, GM, Chrysler, Volkswagen,
Toyota, Nissan and others. These days, Marcos Alvarez, business director of Big Country America, is quite optimistic about
sales opportunities in Mexico and indirectly to the rest of Latin America. Alvarez notes, International eyes are on
Mexico now under what has been called MEMO [Mexican Moment], as quality,
lead times, trust and currency and political stability are bringing back
manufacturing from Asia to Mexico . By selling to the vehicle manufacturers Mexican operations, SEMA
members can find an additional route to reach South and Central American markets. There

are two excellent upcoming

opportunities to explore the Mexican market. For the first, you dont even need to leave the United States. The
annual SEMA Show, held each year in early November, draws more than 130,000 visitors, and 25% of all buyers attending the tradeonly event come from outside the United States, including large numbers from Mexico and other Latin American countries. Another
first-rate automotive event where companies should consider exhibiting is the annual PAACE Automechanika show, which will be
held July 1012, 2013, at Centro Banamex in Mexico City. The 2012 event boasted 14% growth, with 541 exhibiting companies from
20 countries and 19,763 visits by specialized buyers from more than 33 countries. This year, PAACE Automechanika will feature a
specialized vehicle area where the cars will be categorized as Import, Euro, Racing and Classic.

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Mexico Econ Adv - Exts #2 - Resilient

Mexico's economy resilient - easily able to bounce back from global financial crisis
Columbia Journal of national Affairs 13 (04/04/2013, The Great Debate: Will Mexico
Assume Clear Leadership in Latin America?, http://jia.sipa.columbia.edu/great-debate-will-mexicoassume-clear-leadership-latin-america )Wave3seo
Mexicos recent economic performance and its swift recovery from the financial
crisis are seen by many analysts as near-miraculous. While the Brazilian economic
growth has slowed, Mexico has begun to catch up to Latin Americas most-touted
state. After experiencing average growth of barely 2% per year from 2000-2010,
Mexicos GDP has increased by 4 percent in the last year. Mexico boasts a skilled
workforce, low costs and proximity to the United States. Investment has boomed
despite the ongoing drug wars, corruption and a weak rule of law.

More evidence - continued foreign direct investment in the status quo makes Mexico
resilient to economic instability
BanderasNews 13

(January 10, 2013, Mexico Catching Up While 'Booming Brazil' Falters,

Brazil, which overtook Britain last year

has been hit by weakening Chinese demand for
commodities, while rival Mexico, the new darling of foreign investors, is posting
increasingly strong growth. The figures speak for themselves. Brazil, for the last decade
Latin Americas unchallenged behemoth, is expected to show growth of only one percent for 2012, down
from 2.7 percent in 2011 and a sizzling 7.5 percent in 2010, according to official estimates. By
contrast, Mexico, the perennial underachiever in Latin America, is suddenly eying
a position among the worlds 10 largest economies with projected growth of
between 3.5 and four percent. Mexico took a massive hit from the 2007-2008
financial crisis, thanks in large part to its proximity to the United States, but its
economy contracted a whopping six percent in 2009 But a huge reduction in
Mexicos "country cost" the cost of doing business there sparked an
impressive turnaround that attracted investment in its industrial sector, created jobs, and added value to
http://www.banderasnews.com/1301/nb-mexeconomysurges-brazilfalters.htm) Wave3seo
to become the worlds sixth largest economy,

exports. Sebastian Briozzo, head of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poors for Latin America (the stock market index tracking Latin American
stocks,) said the two countries have very different growth patterns.

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***US/Sino War

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US-Sino War Frontline

1 - No US-China war; both dont want conflict and negotiation deters
Zhu Feng 12is a professor in the School of International Studies and the deputy director of the Center for International and Strategic
Studies at Beijing University. No one wants a Clash; The New York Times. 5-3-12. http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/05/02/arewe-headed-for-a-cold-war-with-china/no-one-wants-a-cold-war-between-the-us-and-china Reyes
A series of events in recent months seem quite ominous for China-U.S. relations. Last November, President Obama vowed that the U.S. would
remain a power in the Asia-Pacific region for the rest of this century, while the secretary of state, Hillary Rodham Clinton, declared that America
was pivoting to Asia. The current standoff in the South China Sea adds to the foreboding. The U.S.-China

relationship is complex, but

lucrative for both sides. Neither nation wants confrontation. This rebalancing in the Asia-Pacific region is not
necessarily the new U.S. strategy after the military pullout from Iraq and Afghanistan, but it does unequivocally signal the shift of Americas
attention from Europe and the Middle East to Asia. What follows is Americas new and firm military restructuring in the region: setting Darwin
Port in Australia as the new submarine corps base, rotating military presence to the Philippines, ushering in the Pentagons global security
programs that very specifically target China. Now the Asian version of missile defense is under intense discussion, reminiscent of the American
plan to create a missile interception network all over Europe a plan that unnerved the worlds other great power, Russia. Against this tense
backdrop, human rights issues are now creating rifts between Washington and Beijing. After a local police official, Wang Lijun, reportedly
sneaked into the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu in early February, the blind human rights activist Chen Guangcheng sought shelter this week at the
U.S. Embassy in Beijing. Despite quiet diplomacy so far, there is little sign that the two nations could realistically reach an agreement about
human rights questions, as there is slight room to maneuver. Beijing

believes that the U.S. criticisms over human rights

are deliberate and well plotted, aimed at abolishing the Communist Partys ruling legitimacy and detracting from
Chinas re-emergence. Therefore Chinas rulers might find it much harder to back down over human rights clashes. However there is
little worry that the two powers will collide into a new cold war. First of all, Chinas authoritarian
system has been tremendously mobilized for international integration. Beijing has been pretty
conservative and doesnt welcome democratization. But it does not strictly adhere to traditional communism
either. Any new confrontation like the cold war would risk a huge backlash in China by greatly damaging the better-off Chinese people. Such
a conflict could ultimately undermine the Communist Partys ruling legitimacy. Second, the power disparity between
Washington and China hasnt significantly narrowed, regardless of Chinese achievements in the past
decades. My view is that Beijing remains an adolescent power, and should learn how to be a great power
rather than unwisely rushing to any confrontation. Though some Chinese want the nation to assert itself more forcefully,
the huge disparity in power should keep China in place. China is in no position to challenge the U.S. But
China will be more enthusiastic and straightfoward about addressing and safeguarding its legal interests. Competition between
Washington and Beijing will intensify, but that does not automatically mean that the relationship will
be unmanageable. Lastly, the cycle of action and reaction has mostly turned out to be fruitful for the U.S. and China. Further
competition is promising. The U.S. doesnt want to put China in a corner, or force Beijing to stand up desperately. The dealings over
many thorny issues have proved that each side wants to handle the conflict, not escalate it. Chen
Guangchengs departure from the U.S. Embassy is telling evidence. Neither side wants diplomatic confrontation. Rather, it seems that both
sides are struggling to react constructively. In the years to come, China-U.S.

relations will continue to be very

complicated, but also very important. The glue to keep these two nations together is not pragmatism
only, but mutual interest especially in trade.

2 - No US-China war in SCS, any tensions from miscalc are mended through
negotiations, if miscalc nuke war threat was real, their impacts from miscalc shouldve
happened already
Carlyle A. Thayer 13. Carlyle A. Thayer is Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales,
Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra. The ideas in this paper were first presented at the Annual
Conference of the Association for Asian Studies held at San Diego, 22 March 2013. Why China and the
US wont go to war over the South China Sea; East Asia Forum. May 13 2013.
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/05/13/why-china-and-the-us-wont-go-to-war-over-the-southchina-sea/ Reyes

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Chinas increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea is challenging US primacy in the Asia Pacific. Chinese sailors stand on a fishing vessel
setting sail for the Spratly Islands, an archipelago disputed between China and other countries including Vietnam and the Philippines (Photo:
AAP) Even before Washington announced its official policy of rebalancing its force posture to the Asia Pacific, the

United States had

undertaken steps to strengthen its military posture by deploying more nuclear attack submarines to the region and
negotiating arrangements with Australia to rotate Marines through Darwin.Since then, the United States has deployed Combat Littoral Ships to
Singapore and is negotiating new arrangements for greater military access to the Philippines. But these

developments do not
presage armed conflict between China and the United States. The Peoples Liberation Army Navy has been circumspect
in its involvement in South China Sea territorial disputes, and the United States has been careful to avoid being
entrapped by regional allies in their territorial disputes with China. Armed conflict between China and
the United States in the South China Sea appears unlikely. Another, more probable, scenario is that both countries will
find a modus vivendi enabling them to collaborate to maintain security in the South China Sea. The
Obama administration has repeatedly emphasised that its policy of rebalancing to Asia is not directed at
containing China. For example, Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, Commander of the US Pacific Command, recently stated, there has also
been criticism that the Rebalance is a strategy of containment. This is not the case it is a strategy of collaboration and
cooperation. However, a review of past USChina military-to-military interaction indicates that an agreement to jointly manage security
in the South China Sea is unlikely because of continuing strategic mistrust between the two countries. This is also because the currents of
regionalism are growing stronger. As such, a third scenario is more likely than the previous two: that China

and the United States

will maintain a relationship of cooperation and friction. In this scenario, both countries work separately to
secure their interests through multilateral institutions such as the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus and
the Enlarged ASEAN Maritime Forum. But they also continue to engage each other on points of mutual interest.
The Pentagon has consistently sought to keep channels of communication open with China through three established bilateral mechanisms:
Defense Consultative Talks, the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA), and the Defense Policy Coordination Talks. On the one
hand, these multilateral mechanisms reveal very little about USChina military relations. Military-to-military contacts between the two
countries have gone through repeated cycles of cooperation and suspension, meaning that it has not been possible to isolate purely military-tomilitary contacts from their political and strategic settings. On the other hand, the channels have accomplished the following: continuing
exchange visits by high-level defence officials; regular Defense Consultation Talks; continuing working-level discussions under the MMCA;
agreement on the 7-point consensus; and no serious naval incidents since the 2009 USNS Impeccable affair. They have also helped to ensure
continuing exchange visits by senior military officers; the initiation of a Strategic Security Dialogue as part of the ministerial-level Strategic &
Economic Dialogue process; agreement to hold meetings between coast guards; and agreement on a new working group to draft principles to
establish a framework for military-to-military cooperation. So the bottom line is that, despite

ongoing frictions in their

relationship, the United States and China will continue engaging with each other. Both sides
understand that military-to-military contacts are a critical component of bilateral engagement. Without such
interaction there is a risk that mistrust between the two militaries could spill over and have a major negative impact on bilateral relations in
general. But strategic mistrust will probably persist in the absence of greater transparency in military-to-military relations. In sum, Sino-

American relations in the South China Sea are more likely to be characterised by cooperation and friction
than a modus vivendi of collaboration or, a worst-case scenario, armed conflict.

3 - No risk of Sino backlash - Multilateral power balances in Asia prove coexistence of

China and US influence possible
John T. Bennett 12. Senior Congressional Reporter at Defense News Past DEFENSE & NATIONAL
SECURITY CORRESPONDENT at U.S. News & World Report Senior Defense Reporter at The Hill Senior
Reporter - Pentagon & National Security Beat at Defense News Education The Johns Hopkins University
Appalachian State University. Top Australian Diplomat: U.S.-China War Would Be 'Disastrous' RSS Feed
Print, US News. April 25, 2012. http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/dotmil/2012/04/25/top-australiandiplomat-us-china-war-would-be-disastrous Reyes
War between China and the United States would be "disastrous" for the entire world, says Australia's top diplomat, who also
suggests that a conflict between the global giants is unlikely. As Chinese economic and military power--and its global
influence--grows, U.S. analysts, lawmakers, and some Asian leaders worry Beijing could clash with the world's sitting lone superpower: the
United States. A war between the eagle and the dragon would be "disastrous" for both nations, the Asia-Pacific region, and the entire globe,
Bob Carr, Australian minister for foreign affairs, told a forum Wednesday in Washington. Expert forecasts that China could challenge America's
perch atop the global totem pole are based on even more economic growth in China and across the Asia-Pacific region. The Obama
administration's ongoing shift of U.S. foreign and national security policies from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific is based on a belief that

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much of the history of this century will be written there. But such

predictions might be off the mark, says Carr, who spends ample
United States dominated much of the 20th century and the early years
of the 21st. But the next 88 years, "might not belong to anyone," Carr said at the Center for Strategic and International
time jetting around the vast region. The

Studies. The levers of global and economic power are trending toward being more widely dispersed than some experts predict, Carr says. He
also noted Chinese

officials collective response to the administration shift toward their backyard has
been "muted," suggesting the U.S. and China will be able to coexist. Carr showed few signs of worry about what
likely would be a bloody and costly U.S.-China war, sounding a much different tone than did Singapore defense chief Ng Eng Hen during an April
visit to Washington. Ng urged increased American engagement in Asia, warning that anything else could spawn deadly U.S.-China tensions.
During an April 4 speech in Washington, Ng called the United States a "resident power" in Asia. But he also made clear Singaporean and other
regional leaders feel the U.S.

and China must enhance military-to-military contacts, which they believe will
help prevent a war. It was clear from several of Ng's comments in April that Singaporean and other regional leaders are increasingly
concerned about a U.S.-China war. But Carr, who spent the opening part of his prepared remarks underscoring the U.S.-Australian partnership,
calls a rising China a good thing for his nation, the
goes, he says, will depend largely on Beijing's own actions.

Asia-Pacific realm, and the world. Just how China's continued rise

4 - US-China Relations increasing.

Greitens, 6/11 [Sheena Chestnut, Academy Scholar, Harvard Academy for International and Area
Studies, Harvard University, Brookings.edu, 6/11/13,
http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/06/11-us-china-relations-asia-alliances-greitens] He
In discussing this relationship, American public intellectuals have become fond of referencing Thucydides account of the Peloponnesian War
between Athens and Sparta to issue warnings about the risk of conflict, and to offer advice on how one can best manage the geopolitical
tensions that have historically attended the rise of a new great power.[1] Leaders

on both sides, the argument goes, must

be acutely aware of the dilemma they face if they are to avoid it. Reflecting this discourse, as well as
their own research into the rise of previous great powers, Chinese scholars and officials have
consistently called for a New Type of Great Power Relationship (, xinxing daguo
guanxi) between Washington and Beijing that avoids the tensions that surrounded past rising
powers.[2]
Many of the prescriptions for avoiding conflict call for the two leaders to spend time, energy, and
discussion focused on creating strategic trust (, zhanlue xinren) in the bilateral
relationship.[3] In his February 2012 address in Washington, President Xi Jinping called for the enhancement of mutual trust as the first
of four major principles upon which American and Chinese leaders should base their relationship.[4] In a 2012 Brookings Institution report,
Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi argue that strategic distrust is rooted in the narrowing gap in power between the U.S. and China;
differences in political traditions and values; and insufficient understanding of each others policymaking structures and processes.[5] In

an
effort to build strategic trust, forums for discussion and the enhancement of mutual understanding
have multiplied; over sixty formal dialogues between the United States and the Peoples Republic of
China now occur each year.
And, it won't go nuclear - China's No-First-Use policy
Zhenqiang 05 (Pan, Professor of International Relations at the Institute for Strategic Studies, National
Defence University of the Peoples Liberation Army of China , retired Major General of the Peoples
Liberation Army, China Insistence on No-First-Use of Nuclear Weapons, China Security (World Security
Institute China Program, http://www.irchina.org/en/news/view.asp?id=403]
In my view, No-First Use (NFU) has been a theoretical pillar of Chinas nuclear policy. This rationale of NFU
of nuclear weapons serves Beijings foremost security interests. It also contributes to the maintenance
of world strategic stability. There are at least five reasons to explain why China has consistently stuck
to that principle, and will continue to do so in the future.
Underlying Principles

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First, NFU

highlights Chinas philosophical belief that nuclear weapons can only be used to serve one
purpose, that of retaliation against a nuclear attack, pending complete nuclear disarmament. Indeed, their extremely large
destructive capabilities render nuclear weapons the only truly inhumane weapon of mass destruction and are of little other use to China. Faced
with U.S. nuclear blackmail in the 1950s, China had no alternative to developing its own nuclear capability so as to address the real danger of
being a target of a nuclear strike. But even so, Beijing vowed that having a nuclear capability would only serve this single purpose.

From the very beginning of acquiring a nuclear capability, Beijing announced that it would never be
the first to use nuclear weapons under any conditions; it also pledged unconditionally not to use nuclear weapons against
any non-nuclear weapon states. This claim is not merely rhetoric that cannot be verified, as some Western
pundits accused. On the contrary, Chinas nuclear rationale has determined the defensive nature of its
nuclear force, its posture, size and operational doctrine, which have been highly visible and have stood the test of time. It
is in this sense that China is NOT a nuclear weapon state in the Western sense. Unlike all the other nuclear weapon states, for example, China
has never intended to use its nuclear capability to make up for the in efficiency of conventional
capabilities vis--vis other world powers nor has China an interest in joining a nuclear arms race with
other nuclear states. And thanks to the insistence of this policy based on NFU, China succeeds in reducing the nuclear
element to the minimum in its relations with other nuclear nations, avoiding a possible nuclear arms
race, and contributing to the global strategic stability at large. If this policy serves well its core security interests, why
should Beijing change it?

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***US/Russian Relations

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US-Russian Relations Frontline

First, US-Russian Relations are stable now - relations are resilient
CIC 7-30-13 ("US-Russia Relations: It Could Be Worse, Canadian International Council, http://opencanada.org/features/the-thinktank/interviews/u-s-russia-relations-it-could-be-worse/)

The relationship today isnt good, but its nowhere near as bad as it could be. As difficult as things can
sometimes be with Moscow and they have been very difficult lately and as diametrically opposed President
Putin and President Obama and their teams seem to be, fundamentally, Russia and America are not out
to get one another. You could imagine a world in which they were, and it would be a very different and far, far worse world.
Its important to remember that Russia is not our enemy. Only a few years ago, at the time of the 2009
re-set there were opportunities for cooperation on everything from security something which we
actually started to see with Russian logistical support for NATO forces in Afghanistan, and which was critical
at a time when relations with Pakistan were not good to Iran to counter-terrorism, anti-narcotics, anti-trafficking, and anti-piracy. And of
course, there was the new nuclear treaty. Thats a huge amount of progress on the security side. On the economic side, we brought Russia into the
WTO, another huge step forward. The strength of the relationship today is still nowhere near where it could or should be. U.S.

trade with

Russia is about forty billion dollars a year, which, for perspective, is less than half of one percent of total U.S. trade. Its less than
two percent of Russias total trade. So the trade relationship is not a major factor in either countrys economic success. But at the same time,

theres a lot of potential these are two very big economies. Russia, depending on how you measure, is
around the tenth largest economy in the world. It has an increasingly wealthy middle class thats
interested in consuming more American goods. Ford automobiles, American heavy equipment, American consumer products
generally they certainly like American intellectual property, from television shows to computer software.

And, no risk of bad relations escalating to conflict

CIC 7-30-13 ("US-Russia Relations: It Could Be Worse, Canadian International Council, http://opencanada.org/features/the-thinktank/interviews/u-s-russia-relations-it-could-be-worse/)

Right now, the U.S.-Russia relationship is caught in a trap of mutual distrust. Both sides are relatively
convinced that theyre talking to the wrong person. The United States thinks that if they just wait out Putin,
or fund some people that might be able to replace him, then maybe in a couple of years there will be a much
better Russian government with which they can negotiate. On the other side, you have Putin thinking, Im
tougher than these guys, Ive been around longer than these guys, Im just going to embarrass them on one
issue after another and then soon enough I wont have to deal with them.
But even during the Cold War, when we had two political systems that unequivocally defined the other
as a failure, we still managed to work together in several areas, and we have many more bilateral ties
now.

And, alternate causality to US-Russian Relations - missile defense

Business Recorder 2012
[Pakistani business agency - cites a US-Russia working
group that studied how missile defense relates to US-Russia cooperation, "Missile
defence poisoned US-Russia relations: report", February 04, http://www.brecorder.com/topnews/1-front-top-news/44716-missile-defence-poisoned-us-russia-relations-report.html]

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WASHINGTON: Missile

defence, an issue that has poisoned US-Russia relations, could be a "game-changer"

that transforms ties if the two sides cooperate on a shared system, says a report by former top officials from both
sides of the Atlantic. Recent headlines in both countries have been reminiscent of the Cold War, with the
Russians threatening to deploy missiles aimed at countering a proposed US missile shield, and the
Americans responding that they will build the system, come what may. The planned US shield, endorsed by NATO,
would deploy US interceptor missiles in and around Europe in what Washington says is a layered protection against missiles that could be fired
by countries like Iran. Moscow says this could undermine its security if it becomes capable of neutralizing Russia's nuclear
deterrent. Now an international commission has been working on the matter for two years that has designed a basic concept for cooperation
with the help of military professionals from both sides.

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***Democracy

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Democracy Advantage Frontline

First, Democracy is unsustainable---inescapable debt leads to economic collapse
Adams, 11 *Mike, editor for Natural News, Why democracy is failing America, 5/10/11,
http://www.naturalnews.com/032346_democracy_America.html] STRYKER
Why democracy isn't working for America At its core, the democratic process of electing representatives is a
popularity contest. The voters inevitably end up supporting whichever lawmakers offer the best
handouts right now, regardless of the long-term consequences to the nation. Voting, in other words, is a
contest based on short-term rewards rather than long-term vision. Not surprisingly, when the voters go to the polls,
they tend to elect the person who promises them the most right now. Now, it's crucial to recognize this simple economic fact: No
government can offer something to one person without first taking it from another. So the more
handouts, entitlements and benefits any government offers, the more it must confiscate from others
in order to meet its "obligations" to the voters. This creates a downward spiral of entitlements leading
to inescapable debt. Because sooner or later, governments always run out of other people's money. But that doesn't stop the
voting action which still boils down to a popularity contest to decide the leader who tells the best lies.
When given a choice between a realistic candidate who says America is deep in debt (Ron Paul) and a fantasy-land candidate who says there's
nothing to worry about (almost everybody else), most

voters will choose the fantasy candidate... especially if it

means more money in their pockets.

And, Democracies are unstable---free expression leads to collapse

Mundt, 97 [Robert, author on history studies, Is Democray Stable? Compared to What? 1997,
http://www.stier.net/writing/demstab/stability.htm] STRYKER
Contemporary doubts about democracy follow the long tradition of pre-modern political thought, a
tradition that pointed both to the disadvantages of democratic regimes and the advantages of non-democratic regimes. Democratic
regimes allow for the expression of the range of views held by the members of a political community.
And it has often been held that, in a number of ways, this makes government difficult. For one thing,
the people are likely to be resistant to the demands of government, and especially, to taxes and
military service. But effective government requires that governments pay their bills and mobilize
armies. Critics of democracy suppose that monarchs and aristocrats, who have greater experience with and training
for political matters will, be better able to grasp and deal with these necessities of politics . For another thing, the
people are likely to be divided about the proper direction of government. This leads to two possible
problems. If political circumstances allow one group and then another to triumph over another, a
government might adopt a series of radical changes in direction. If, on the other hand, political circumstances make it
difficult for one group to gain power, the result is likely to be stalemate. Either way, it will be difficult for democratic regimes to adopt
consistent and effective public policies. Under favorable conditions, conflict in or paralysis of democratic regimes may not be too serious. But,

under unfavorable conditions, these regimes will, it is held, be unable either to protect themselves or
serve the common good. The result, then, is likely to be dissatisfaction, dissent and, eventually
instability. Once opposition to the regime arises, a democracy is, again, likely to find it difficult to respond in ways that preserves itself.
Democratic regimes are often reluctant to use force against their own population. And, even when they do so, they are not as likely to be as
brutally decisive and potent as a dictator who is not constrained by the rule of law or popular opinion. That, we all think, is to the good. But in
our preference for benign government, we should not assume that a

good government is always the most stable

government.

Promoting democracy fails and backfires---resistance leads to conflicts

Hobsbawm, 05

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[Eric is professor emeritus of economic and social history of the University of London
at Birkbeck, The dangers of exporting democracy, 1/22/05,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/jan/22/usa.comment] STRYKER
Although President Bush's uncompromising second inaugural address does not so much as mention the words Iraq, Afghanistan and the war on
terror, he and his supporters continue to engage in a planned reordering of the world. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are but one part of a
supposedly universal effort to create world order by "spreading

democracy". This idea is not merely quixotic - it is

dangerous. The rhetoric implies that democracy is applicable in a standardised (western) form, that it can
succeed everywhere, that it can remedy today's transnational dilemmas, and that it can bring peace,
rather than sow disorder. It cannot. Democracy is rightly popular. In 1647, the English Levellers broadcast the powerful idea that
"all government is in the free consent of the people". They meant votes for all. Of course, universal suffrage does not guarantee
any particular political result, and elections cannot even ensure their own perpetuation - witness the
Weimar Republic. Electoral democracy is also unlikely to produce outcomes convenient to hegemonic or imperial powers. (If the Iraq war had
depended on the freely expressed consent of "the world community", it would not have happened). But these uncertainties do not diminish its
justified appeal. Other factors besides democracy's popularity explain the dangerous belief that its propagation by armies might actually be
feasible. Globalisation suggests that human affairs are evolving toward a universal pattern. If gas stations, iPods, and computer geeks are
the same worldwide, why not political institutions? This view underrates the world's complexity. The relapse into bloodshed and
anarchy that has occurred so visibly in much of the world has also made the idea of spreading a new order more attractive. The Balkans seemed
to show that areas of turmoil required the intervention, military if need be, of strong and stable states. In the absence of effective international
governance, some humanitarians are still ready to support a world order imposed by US power. But one

should always be
suspicious when military powers claim to be doing weaker states favours by occupying them. Another
factor may be the most important: the US has been ready with the necessary combination of megalomania and messianism, derived from its
revolutionary origins. Today's US is unchallengeable in its techno-military supremacy, convinced of the superiority of its social system, and,
since 1989, no longer reminded - as even the greatest conquering empires always had been - that its material power has limits. Like President
Wilson, today's ideologues see a model society already at work in the US: a combination of law, liberal freedoms, competitive private enterprise
and regular, contested elections with universal suffrage. All that remains is to remake the world

in the image of this "free

society". This idea is dangerous whistling in the dark. Although great power action may have morally or politically desirable
consequences, identifying with it is perilous because the logic and methods of state action are not those of
universal rights. All established states put their own interests first. If they have the power, and the end is considered sufficiently vital,
states justify the means of achieving it - particularly when they think God is on their side. Both good and evil empires have
produced the barbarisation of our era, to which the "war against terror" has now contributed. While
threatening the integrity of universal values, the campaign to spread democracy will not succeed . The
20th century demonstrated that states could not simply remake the world or abbreviate historical transformations. Nor can they easily effect
social change by transferring institutions across borders. The conditions for effective democratic government are rare: an existing state
enjoying legitimacy, consent and the ability to mediate conflicts between domestic groups. Without such consensus, there is no single
sovereign people and therefore no legitimacy for arithmetical majorities. When this consensus is absent, democracy has been suspended (as is
the case in Northern Ireland), the state has split (as in Czechoslovakia), or society has descended into permanent civil war (as in Sri Lanka).

"Spreading democracy" aggravated ethnic conflict and produced the disintegration of states in
multinational and multicommunal regions after both 1918 and 1989. The effort to spread
standardised western democracy also suffers a fundamental paradox. A growing part of human life
now occurs beyond the influence of voters - in transnational public and private entities that have no
electorates. And electoral democracy cannot function effectively outside political units such as nationstates. The powerful states are therefore trying to spread a system that even they find inadequate to meet today's challenges. Europe proves
the point. A body such as the European Union could develop into a powerful and effective structure precisely because it has no electorate other
than a small number of member governments. The EU would be nowhere without its "democratic deficit", and there can be no legitimacy for its
parliament, for there is no "European people". Unsurprisingly, problems arose as soon as the EU moved beyond negotiations between
governments and became the subject of democratic campaigning in the member states. The

effort to spread democracy is also

dangerous in a more indirect way: it conveys to those who do not enjoy this form of government the
illusion that it actually governs those who do. But does it? We now know something about how the actual decisions
to go to war in Iraq were taken in at least two states of unquestionable democratic bona fides: the US
and the UK. Other than creating complex problems of deceit and concealment, electoral democracy and representative assemblies had little to
do with that process. Decisions were taken among small groups of people in private, not very different from the way they would have been
taken in non-democratic countries.

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And, No democratic backslide---democracies grow more resilient in economic crises

Pei and Adesnik 2000 (Minxin and Ariel, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, and Mr. Adesnik is a junior fellow there, "Democracies Grow More Resilient to
Economic Crisis, New York Times, 3/4/2000, http://www.nytimes.com/2000/03/04/opinion/04ihtedpei.2.t.html) Han
Recent trends suggesting the erosion of democracy in Latin America have led some observers to warn
of a possible authoritarian resurgence in the region. They fear that the economic crisis in some
countries is undermining democratic regimes. Based on our study of 93 episodes of economic crisis in
22 countries in Latin America and Asia after World War II, such fears are unnecessary. Democracies
are far more resilient than authoritarian regimes in the face of economic adversity. It is not the democrats but
the dictators who should fear for their survival when an economic crisis hits. A case in point is the Asian financial crash of 1997, which brought
down the Suharto regime that had ruled Indonesia for more than 30 years. In

South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines,

however, democracies survived the crisis intact. Much of the conventional wisdom about the political impact of economic
crises may be wrong. In 46, or half, of the cases we studied, the crisis produced neither a change of government
nor a change of a regime (system of government). In 17 cases, it led to a change of government but not of regime. With one
exception, all of these changes took place in democratic states as a result of elections, no-confidence votes or resignations. Such changes
do not destabilize the political system and seldom lead to an outbreak of violence. Economic crisis
caused regime collapses in 30, or about one-third, of the cases, mostly through a gradual process.
Immediate collapse is rare only six regime collapses (three of which took place in Ecuador) were observed within nine months of
the outbreak of the crisis. Among the fallen were 15 dictatorships, 10 democracies and five semidemocracies regimes that rely on coercion
to maintain power despite having formal democratic institutions. The 10 cases of collapsed democracies suggest that political factors, rather
than purely economic ones, contributed to the breakdown. In fact, the

severity of economic crisis (measured in terms of

inflation and negative growth) bore no relationship to the collapse. Political variables, however, such
as ideological polarization, labor radicalism, guerrilla insurgencies and an anti-Communist military,
played a more direct role in the demise of democracy in developing countries. The most striking and
heartening finding is that democracies may have grown more resilient over time. Since 1980, only one democracy
Peru has fallen in the midst of crises. Of the 23 economic crises that struck democracies in Latin America and Asia after 1980, 10 had no
serious political effects while only 12 led to constitutional changes of government. In economic terms, many of these crises were more severe
than those that claimed democratic regimes in the same countries in the 1960s and 1970s. Argentina is a case in point. Since its transition in
1983, the Argentine democracy has weathered hyperinflation and deep recession in sharp contrast to the repeated collapse of democracy
when Argentina experienced less devastating crises during the Cold War. The source of democracies' resilience is their institutional capacity to
enforce political accountability, via elections or confidence votes. Governments

fall, but democracy survives as a system

of government.

And, Democracy collapse doesnt lead to extinction---authoritarian regimes cooperate

to solve the same problems
Erdmann et al, 13 *Dr. Gero Erdmann is head of Research Program 1 Legitimacy and Efficiency of
Political Systems and lead research fellow at the GIGA Institute of African Studies, Andr Bank is a
research fellow at the GIGA Institute of Middle East Studies, Dr. Bert Hoffmann is acting director of the
GIGA Institute of Latin American Studies, Dr. Thomas Richter is a senior research fellow at the GIGA
Institute of Middle East Studies, International Cooperation of Authoritarian Regimes: Toward a
Conceptual Framework, 7/2013, http://www.gigahamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/wp229_erdmann-bank-hoffmannrichter.pdf] STRYKER
In politics and political science alike, awareness is growing about the increasing international influence of
authoritarian regimes. The primary focus of attention has been the neighbor hood policies of Russias post Soviet regime as well as Chinas
international political and economic activities. The controversy about a reverse wave of democratization, the expan sion of
nondemocratic rule (Merkel 2010; Puddington 2008, 2009) and the earlier backlash against democracy promotion
(Carothers 2006, 2009) reflects these trends. More recently, scholarly attention has turned away from the international dimension of democratization
to address the international dimension of authoritarian regimes. This new interest drew authors from two strands. First, scholars formerly interested in processes of

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rollback that reversed many efforts of de mocracy promotion

scholars previ ously interested in the stability and durability of
authoritarian regimes became increasingly aware of the importance of international factors (Art 2012: 201).
Some of the literature main tains a democratizing perspective insofar as it asks how and why some nondemocratic re gimes were able to
fend off international diffusion of or even pressure for democracy (Levitsky and Way 2010; Weyland 2010). However, the
democratization took notice of the authoritarian

(Burnell and Schlumberger 2010; Burnell 2011). Second,

strand of research that does not approach the issue from the angle of democratization still needs to develop a comprehensive conceptual approach. The issue goes

Au
thoritarian regimes collaborate in various ways: They provide each other with ideational and material
support; They protect each other on the international level for example, through vetoes in the UN Security Council; They help
each other in military and security related issues; They learn from each other in how to deal with opposition and how to build a solid polit ical party;
well beyond the particular antidemocratic leverage of authoritarian powers, such as Russias counterinfluence on the color revolutions in its neighborhood.

They exchange ideas on the design of development strategies; And they provide each other with direct personal advice on how to cope with insurgent forces and
how to control Internet usage. While it is obvious that

tion

authoritarian regimes use multiple forms of international coopera

to reinforce their rule, the existing literature pays scant attention to these phenomena.

And, Authoritarianism isnt bad---limitations are good

Rahib Raza 12, columnist at The Express Tribune http://rahibraza.blogspot.com/2012/10/normative-theory-authoritarian-theory.html, 10-29,12 Shah
Since the earliest times, the control of leaders which led to the oppression of the people has been
demonstrated. The concept of authoritarianism developed throughout history wherein people in various societies lived under
the authority of scrupulous people. Even English monarchs in the 15th and 16th century, when the printing press was realized,
compelled restrictive censorship on publishers through a series of limitations such as licensing, taxation, and seditious libel.
Actually, these

forms of limitations are not bad at all because these serve as gatekeepers for some
irresponsible printed materials.
Conspicuously, even up to now, lots of people are still living under the authoritative form of government
system wherein the government has the absolute control over the media and that they use media for
propaganda purposes. Sometimes its a funny thing to know that in this type of political system there are no marketing
strategies being used, only but just threat morose threat.

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Democracy Adv - Exts #1 - Unsustainable

Democracy will inevitably collapse---it is inherently unstable
Mundt, 97 *Robert, author on history studies, Is Democray Stable? Compared to What? 1997,
http://www.stier.net/writing/demstab/stability.htm] STRYKER
The empirical study of democratic regimes in the last fifty years has focused on the question of what
makes for stable democracies.[1] Various hypotheses have been put forward and tested about the social and political conditions
under which democratic regimes come to be or to endure. A presupposition of most of this research is that democratic regimes are
particularly fragile . The supposition that democracies are fragile probably has a number of sources.
The frightening experience of the descent of European democracies into fascism and communism is
perhaps the most important. But we can also find support for this presupposition in the evident fragility
of democratic regimes in the less developed world. And, standing behind these events, is the long
standing tradition in political philosophyand especially, in pre-modern political thoughtof
disparaging democracy and warning that it is likely to lead to tyranny.

Democracy is fundamentally flawed---the average voter doesnt know whats best

Tucker, 10 *Reed, contributor to NYPost, When Democracy fails, 2/14/10,
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/when_democracy_fails_LHBo3rZ6u43hQfgpU
LEZ7L] STRYKER
You dont have to be a C-SPAN junkie to see that our government is just plain broken. You get the feeling that more substantial
work gets accomplished at a high schools model UN. But what if its not just government thats broken? What if democracy itself
doesnt work ? After watching Jaywalking, or, God help us all, an episode of Jersey Shore, its hard to argue that We the
People are best equipped to make the important decisions of state. As Winston Churchill once said,
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. Maybe
the problem with government these days is simply that we Americans (and that includes many of those in power)
dont know enough to make the best choice. To see just how sensible we as a people are, lets look at some times weve been
given a chance to be heard:

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Democracy Adv - Exts #2 - Unstable

Democracies are unstable---several reasons
Kapstein, 12 [Ethan, visiting fellow at the Center for Global Development with expertise in airer
trade; inequality and growth; political economy, Why Democracies Fail: Lessons from Mali? 3/29/12,
http://www.cgdev.org/blog/why-democracies-fail-lessons-mali] STRYKER
The recent coups in the Maldives and Mali against democratically elected leaders, and the continuing
political struggles in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya following the Arab Spring, are potent reminders that
democracy is a fragile institution. In fact, of the 120 attempts at democratization that have occurred
around the world since 1960, nearly half have been reversed at some point. The reasons for democratic failure,
however, are surprising. In our book, The Fate of Young Democracies, Nathan Converse and I found that democracies do not fail for the reasons
commonly supposed. They do not generally fail, for example, because of poor economic performance. In fact, the democracies that are
overthrown have, on average, higher growth rates than those that are sustained over long periods of time. Some recent examples of fast
growing democracies that have reversed include Russia, Venezuela, and Thailand. Nor do democracies reverse while undergoing the process of
economic reform. To the contrary, reforms like trade liberalization and privatization tend to support the democratic process, as they bring forth
entrepreneurs who provide a bulwark against an authoritarian backlash. Finally, democracies are no more likely to be sustained by adopting
parliamentary instead of presidential institutions. Though parliamentary forms of government are often said to help prevent power grabs by
the executive branch, prime ministers have proved to be very adept at commanding powerthink of Vladimir Putinand parliaments are often
weak and sharply divided, thus incapable of exercising authority. Why, then, do democracies fail? Our study identified several common factors.

First, young democracies are often weakened by extreme levels of income inequality. Rising income
inequality indicates a dysfunctional democratic state in which economic power is concentrated in the
hands of the few, rather than one in which economic opportunities are widely shared and diffused.
Second, young democracies that are unable to constrain the executive branch of powerwhether
presidential or parliamentarywill find it difficult to sustain participatory forms of government. The usual red flags here are changesor
attempts to changethe constitution, particularly with respect to term limits and electoral cycles. Among

the leaders who have

threatened their democracies in this way are Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Eduardo Correa in
Ecuador. Third, democratic states that are ethnically fragmented face severe challenges of institution
building they may be unable to overcome. Such societies are often characterized by insideroutsider tensions that are not easily resolved. As the insidersthe ethnically dominant groupcentralize political power, the
outsiders may find they have no alternative but to try and overthrow the regime. Fourth, newly democratic states that do
not provide adequate supplies of public goods like health care and education are unlikely to
succeed. In crucial respects, democracy as a regime type is justified by its ability to deliver public goods to a broad spectrum of citizens, and
not just to an elite. If democracies are unable or unwilling to meet these demands, their very raison detre may be called into question.

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Democracy Adv - Exts #3 - Promoting Democracy Fails

Promoting democracy fails---strong resistance and carried out poorly
WMD, 08

[World Movement for Democracy, Confronting the Challenges to Democracy in the

21st Century, Current Challenges to Democracy, 1/2008, http://www.wmd.org/about/currentchallenges/current-challenges-democracy] STRYKER
The process of learning to practice democracy meets challenges of various kinds . The first challenge
lies in the fact that democratization takes place in often still authoritarian environments that resist
change, in countries with weak states that provide insufficient security to their citizens, in countries with incomplete processes of nationbuilding, and in countries with poorly developed or skewed economies. Furthermore, while there has been progress in the participation of
women in the political arena, they are still a minority in the power positions of even most democratic states. Transitions

to
democracy do not move forward across straight lines and are bound to encounter backlashes. Democracy
activists, therefore, and the international organizations that support them, must prepare for the long haul and adopt comprehensive
approaches. The

second challenge lies in the inadequate and inappropriate international approaches in

supporting democratic development. The delivery of international support is not always compatible
with the intrinsic values of democracy itself. Does the process through which international support is delivered have as its
ultimate goal a democratic outcome? Are the instruments used and procedures followed democratic? When they are not, democracy support is
likely to become problematic. The

premise of economic development first, democracy later still holds for much of
international assistance. It results, for example, in the promotion of liberal market reforms while reinforcing
systems of autocracy in the process. That countries become economically as well as politically fit through democracy as argued
by the Nobel laureate Armatya Sen - requires a comprehensive rethinking of how international assistance is delivered. Confusing
democracy promotion with regime change, and even with the use of military force to remove a
regime, is counter-productive and often inconsistent with the values of democracy. Such an approach
has played into the hands of autocrats who are resisting necessary democratic reforms by playing up sentiments against
perceived foreign intrusion in violation of the sovereignty of their countries. It also is often accompanied by double standards since only
unfriendly regimes are targeted while friendly tyrants are treated much more leniently. Such

practices real or perceived in

the conduct of international cooperation by established democracies are giving democracy and
democracy support, unfortunately, a bad name. Furthermore, in countries moving out of violent conflict, often the
emphasis lies on stability and reconstruction first, democracy later. This approach frequently entrenches
the very political-economic interests which are the causes of conflict in the first place. Rather than
sequencing approaches, successful international cooperation ought to be comprehensive by balancing the three interlinked objectives of
democracy, security and development.

Promoting democracy fails---forcing regimes doesnt work

Ronen, 13

*Dov, lecturer on psychology at Harvard Medical School, is the author of The Quest
for Self-Determination, End the Campaign to Spread Democracy, 4/30/13,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/opinion/global/End-the-Campaign-to-Spread-Democracy.html?_r=1&] STRYKER
AFTER its victory in the ideological confrontation between two camps during the Cold War, the

United States has been waging

an ideological campaign to spread democracy around the world, and many of its citizens hope that the
campaign will eventually be victorious. This is not likely to happen. An old proverb says: You cannot
whistle against the wind; the wind is stronger . One can whistle the ideological campaigns tune of
democracy forcefully, but it will be silenced by the thunderous storm of the human struggle for selfdetermination. The launching of the ideological campaign is most likely based on the conviction that
the collapse of the Marxist/Communist Eastern camp during the Cold War proved once and for all the

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unquestionable superiority and universal applicability of democracy and its political and economic
institutions. This is not the case . The victory only proved that the implementation of the Marxist idea failed in the Soviet empire,
and the collapse of economies there did not lead to entrenchment of democracy but to the exercise of
self-determination by Estonians, Hungarians, Poles, Ukrainians, among others, including Chechens under Dzhokar Dudayev. Yes, peoples
of the Soviet empire did proclaim aspirations for democracy. So did participants in ethnic conflicts in the former Yugoslavia in the immediate
aftermath of the Cold War, and so did participants in the Arab Spring uprisings some two decades later. But neither peoples of the former
Soviet empire, nor peoples of Yugoslavia, nor those in the Arab Spring uprisings aspired to democratic rule. All these peoples aspired to what
Woodrow Wilson advocated during and after World War I: self-determination. He remarked, No

people must be forced under

sovereignty under which it does not wish to live . President Wilson also wrote in Article 3 of his first draft of the Covenant
of the League of Nations: The Contracting Powers unite in guaranteeing ... territorial adjustments ... as may in the future become necessary by
reason of changes in the present social conditions and aspirations or present social and political relationships,

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***Arctic Conflict

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Arctic Conflict Advantage Frontline

First, - No chance of Arctic Conflict- Countries are maintaining peace in the region now
Berkman 3/12 [Paul Arthur Berkman a biological oceanographer at the University of California, Santa Barbara, is the
author of Environmental Security in the Arctic Ocean: Promoting Co-operation and Preventing Conflict. March 12, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/13/opinion/preventing-an-arctic-cold-war.html?_r=0 accessed on August 1, 2013] JAKE LEE

the Arctic Ocean was covered year-round by ice, creating an

impregnable wilderness that humans rarely negotiated. Today, as the effects of global warming are
amplified in the high north, most of the ocean is open water during the summer and covered by ice
only in the winter. This unexpected transformation has radically altered the stakes for the Arctic, especially for the eight nations and indigenous peoples
JUST a quarter-century ago, and for millenniums before that,

that surround it. But while there has been cooperation on extracting the regions oil, gas and mineral deposits, and exploiting its fisheries, there has been little
effort to develop legal mechanisms to prevent or adjudicate conflict. The potential for such conflict is high, even though tensions are now low.

Several
countries, along with corporations like ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell, are preparing to exploit the
regions enormous oil and natural gas reserves. New shipping routes will compete with the Panama
and Suez Canals. Vast fisheries are being opened to commercial harvesting, without regulation.
Coastal areas that are home to indigenous communities are eroding into the sea. China and the European Union
are among non-Arctic governments rushing to assert their interests in the region. Some states have increased military personnel and equipment there. The
most fundamental challenge for the Arctic states is to promote cooperation and prevent conflict. Both
are essential, but a forum for achieving those goals does not yet exist. In 1996, eight countries the United States, Russia, Canada,
Norway, Finland, Sweden, Iceland and Denmark (which manages the foreign affairs and defense of
Greenland) and groups representing indigenous peoples established the Arctic Council to chart the
regions future. So far, this high-level forum has identified sustainable development and
environmental protection as common Arctic issues. But another crucial concern maintaining the peace was
shelved in the talks that led to the councils creation. The fear then, as now, was that peace implied demilitarization. It doesnt. But
if these nations are still too timid to discuss peace in the region when tensions are low, how will they possibly cooperate to ease conflicts if they arise? Since 2006,
each of the Arctic nations has adopted its own security policy to safeguard its sovereign rights. What they must do now is compare their separate security policies,
identify the ways in which those policies reinforce or conflict with one another, and then balance national interests with common interests. How, for instance, will
each nation position its military and police its territory? How will the Arctic states deal with China and other nations that have no formal jurisdictional claims but
have strong interests in exploiting Arctic resources? How will Arctic and non-Arctic states work together to manage those resources beyond national jurisdictions,

how can
the United States cooperate with other nations to resolve territorial disputes in the ocean? NATOs
top military commander, Adm. James G. Stavridis of the United States Navy, warned in 2010 of an icy
slope toward a zone of competition, or worse, a zone of conflict if the worlds leaders failed to ensure Arctic peace.
on the high seas and in the deep sea? Without ratifying the Convention on the Law of the Sea, a 1982 treaty governing use of the worlds oceans,

Whether it is through the Arctic Council or another entity, there needs to be a forum for discussing peace and stability, not just environmental and economic issues.
We need rules of the road to take us safely into the Arctics future.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, whose economy is

reliant on its rich deposits of oil and natural gas, clearly understands the benefits of a northern sea
route and of the hydrocarbon deposits on his nations continental shelf, and has emphasized the
importance of peace and cooperation in the Arctic. So have leaders of other Arctic nations. But we
have heard virtually nothing from President Obama, even as he has made the dangers of a warming
earth a priority of his second term. At an Arctic Council meeting in Tromso, Norway, last year, Hillary Rodham Clinton,
then the secretary of state, said the world increasingly looks to the North but did not go much further. She called for responsible management of resources and
efforts to prevent and mitigate the effects of climate change .

As the head of an Arctic superpower and a Nobel laureate,

Mr. Obama should convene an international meeting with President Putin and other leaders of Arctic
nations to ensure that economic development at the top of the world is not only sustainable, but
peaceful

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Second, Zero chance of escalation- there are treaties made to prevent conflict
Grtz 12 *Jonas Grtz for Center for Security Studies (CSS) The Arctic: Thaw With Conflict Potential July 2012
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/SpecialFeature/Detail/?id=157901&contextid774=157901&contextid775=157922 accessed on August 1, 2013] JAKE LEE

the background of the changes in the Arctic, this region is occasionally identified as a potential area of
future conflict. However, it is important first to point out that there is much scope for cooperation. This is
Against

particularly apparent when considering soft security concerns such as environmental pollution resulting from the extraction of raw materials. The threats that
arise for humans from the exceptional climatic situations are pushing actors towards cooperative approaches, too .

Many of these issues are

taken on by the Arctic Council. Founded in 1996, the Council is a forum to promote coordination
among the eight Arctic countries. Representatives of indigenous peoples have a consultative role. One
concrete result of the Arctic Council is a binding agreement on maritime search and rescue activities. For 2013, an
agreement on standards for oil spill preparedness and response is expected, which will reinforce the current non-binding offshore oil and gas guidelines.
Cooperation among the littoral states is also advancing in the sensitive area of national sovereign rights .

The 2010 border treaty between

Russia and Norway indicates that bilateral agreements are possible even though the power
asymmetry between the two countries is reflected in a deal advantageous to Russia. International maritime law and the pressure of nonArctic countries are also fostering multilateral cooperation, at least in areas where all parties can still
gain further sovereign rights. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) allows for the extension of the continental
shelf towards the North Pole, which would extend the mining privileges of the coastal states at the expense of the interests of non-Arctic states. The water column
and the animals living in it, by contrast, would continue to enjoy international status. In the Ilulissat Declaration adopted in 2008, the

coastal states

declared their intention to settle any territorial conflicts within the framework of UNCLO S. By signing the declaration, the US
which has not ratified UNCLO S has signalled its willingness to observe it within the Arctic. What is more, the coastal states have been collaborating for a long time
in the exploration of the sea bed.

Provided that there are no major conflicts among these countries , non- Arctic players
will hardly be able to assert themselves in this context. Potential for conflict The scope of sovereign rights in the maritime area
around the Svalbard archipelago, believed to be rich in oil and gas, is a question that is not easy to resolve. On the one hand, the archipelago
and the surrounding 200-mile zone are an undisputed part of Norwegian territory. On the other hand, Norwegian sovereignty over the archipelago is substantially
limited by the Svalbard Treaty of 1920. All 40 signatory countries have the right to exploit natural resources and to conduct research. The treaty also states that the
archipelago must not be used for offensive military purposes. Likewise, the right to levy taxes is limited to the administrative requirements of Svalbard. It was only
later under UNCLO S that the EEZ emerged as an institution. Hence, it remains unclear whether the Svalbard Treaty also applies to this zone. Countries such as
Russia, Iceland, and the UK assume this to be the case. Norway takes the opposite view. Nevertheless, Oslo has not declared a full EEZ in this area, but established a
fisheries protection zone instead. It concedes fishing privileges to Russia,

Iceland, and other nations. This has never been

explicitly acknowledged by these countries, but is usually accepted in practice. The modus vivendi has so far provided
stability as it has served Russian interests too, with the fisheries protection zone granting privileges to Russian fishing interests over other signatory states.
Moreover,

Russia has sufficient oil and gas reserves at its disposal on its own territory. Norway, by
contrast, has a strong interest in opening up the area for oil and gas exploration. Such an opening, however, would
undermine the current fragile balance and encourage other signatory states to question openly the scope of the Treaty. Even if Norway were to take no action,
other nations could try to push for an opening of the area for exploration with reference to the Treaty. Due to the variety of the players concerned and the absence
of international rules, the issue can ultimately only be resolved at a political level. Interests and positions diverge concerning the issue of sovereignty over the new
sea routes as well. Again, even the Arctic coastal states do not agree on the legal status :

Russia and Canada regard the routes as

internal waterways in what is a very broad interpretation of UNCLO S. This implies that ships flying
foreign flags must request permission for transit. Other coastal nations, such as the US, and non-Arctic
players like the EU and presumably China, however, consider these to be international waterways for which no authorisation for transit is
necessary. For the time being, no escalation of this conflict is to be expected, since the commercial navigation routes are competing with non-Arctic sea routes and
the use of these routes will correlate with the extent of their opening and the stability of the agreed arrangements .

In addition, Russia and

Canada depend on the cooperation of foreign non-state and state-owned players in order to attract
investments in their inadequate coastal infrastructures. Also, the International Maritime Organisation
is working on a binding Polar Code, which will establish clear rules for polar navigation. This will weaken the case for additional national
regulations and approval procedures.

And, Zero Risk of Arctic Conflict Just media hype

Beckhusen 2012 (Robert, Staff writer for Wired on International Affairs, Wired, 8/9/12,
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/08/arctic/ ) Okuno

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The exaggerated fears of a coming Arctic war with Russia have largely receded since a media freakout last
year. But that isnt stopping Russia from building new bases in the frigid north. Canada is also splurging on Arctic drones. Less
assertive is the United States, which is boosting Coast Guard operations near Alaska. On Monday, Russian Security Council chief Nikolai
Patrushev said Russia is planning to build a string of new naval bases in the Arctic. The bases are intended to be key
double-purpose sites for warships in remote areas of the Arctic Seas. Theres no word on what those double purposes might be. Russias
plans to create a combined-arms force for the Arctic is also still on track, according to Moscow-based news wire RIA Novosti. The

logic
behind Russias Arctic bases is seductive. The thinking goes like this: As global warming causes the
northern polar ice to recede and one day disappear during the summer months nations like Russia,
Canada, Norway and the United States will scramble for the bountiful deposits of oil, gas and minerals
hidden beneath, sparking an Arctic resource war. Oh, and a swarm of media reports and even videogames
about a hypothetical war on the northern horizon. But a war is exceedingly unlikely because Russia
would lose. For one, the United States has an overwhelming and decisive advantage in submarines. U.S. subs are more
advanced, there are more of them, and their crews are better trained. Its unlikely Arctic nations would also begin killing each other
over low-key and remote territorial disputes.

And, the melting of the polar ice means no conflict

Mahony 3/19 *Honor Mahony is a staff writer for the EU observer Fears of Arctic conflict are 'overblown' March 19,
2013 http://euobserver.com/foreign/119479 accessed on August 3, 2013] JAKE LEE

The Arctic has become a new frontier in international relations, but fear of potential conflict in the
resource-rich region is overblown, say experts. For long a mystery because of its general impenetrability, melting ice caps are
revealing more and more of the Arctic region to scientists, researchers and industry. Climate change
experts can take a more precise look at a what global warming is doing to the planet, shipping trade
routes once considered unthinkable are now possible, and governments and businesses are in thrall
to the potential exploitation of coal, iron, rare earths and oil. The interest is reflected in the growing list of those wanting to
have a foot in the Arctic council, a forum of eight countries with territory in the polar region. While the US, Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia and
Canada form the council, the EU commission, China, India, South Korea and Japan have all expressed an interest in having a permanent observer status.

"The
Arctic has become a new meeting place for America, Europe and the Asia Pacific," says Damien
Degeorges, founder of the Arctic Policy and Economic Forum. During a recent conference on Arctic
shipping routes in the European Parliament, Degeorges noted that "China has been the most active by far in the last
years." He points to its red-carpet treatment of politicians from Greenland, a territory that recently got full control over its wealth of natural resources. Bejing
also cosied up to Iceland after the island's financial meltdown. The two undertook a joint expedition to the North

Pole and the Chinese have

the largest foreign embassy in Reykjavik. Meanwhile, South Korea's president visited Greenland last
year and shipping hubs like Singapore are holding Arctic conferences. The interest is being spurred by
melting icebergs. Last year saw a record low of multi-year ice - permanent ice - in the polar sea. This
means greater shipping and mineral exploitation potential. There were 37 transits of the North East Passage (NEP), running from the Atlantic to the Pacific along the
top of Russia, in 2011. This rose to 47 in 2012. For a ship travelling from the Netherlands to China, the route around 40 percent shorter than using the traditional
Suez Canal. A huge saving for China, where 50 percent of its GDP is connected to shipping. Russia is also keen to exploit the route as the rise in temperatures is
melting the permafrost in its northern territory, playing havoc with its roads and railways .

According to Jan Fritz Hansen, deputy

director of the Danish shipowners association, the real breakthrough will come when there is a cross
polar route. At the moment there are are two options - the North East Passge for which Russia asks
high fees for transiting ships - or the much-less developed North West Passage along Canada. His chief
concern is that "trade up there is free. We don't want protectionism. Everyone should be allowed to compete up there." And he believes the biggest story of the

Arctic holds 13 percent of

undiscovered oil and 30 percent of undiscovered gas supplies. Greenland is already at the centre of
political tussle between the EU and China over future exploitation of its rare earths - used in a range
of technologies such as hybrid cars or smart phones. "The biggest adventure will be the Arctic destination. There is a lot of valuable
goods that should be taken out of nature up there," he said. This resource potential - although tempered by the fact that
much of it is not economically viable to exploit - has led to fears that the Arctic region is ripe for
conflict. But this is nonsense, says Nil Wang, a former Danish admiral and Arctic expert.
Arctic is not how it is traversed but what will be taken out of it. According to the US Geological Survey (2009), the

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Arctic Adv - Exts #1 - No conflict coming

No Arctic Conflict all signs point towards cooperation
Fries 2012 (Tom, , 4/18/12, The Arctic Institute,
http://www.thearcticinstitute.org/2012/04/perspective-correction-how-we.html ) Okuno
War and conflict sell papers -- the prospect of war, current wars, remembrance of wars past. Accordingly, a
growing cottage industry devotes itself to writing about the prospect of conflict among the Arctic nations and between
those nations and non-Arctic states, which is mostly code for China. As a follower of Arctic news, I see this every day, all the
time: eight articles last week, five more already this week from the Moscow Times, Scientific American or what-have-you. Sometimes this
future conflict is portrayed as a political battle, sometimes military, but the portrayals of the states
involved are cartoonish, Cold-War-ish...its all good guys and bad guys. Im convinced that this is nonsense, and I feel
vindicated when I see the extent to which these countries' militaries collaborate in the high North. From
last week's meeting of all eight Arctic nations' military top brass (excepting only the US; we were represented by General
Charles Jacoby, head of NORAD and USNORTHCOM) to Russia-Norway collaboration on search & rescue; from USCanada joint military exercises to US-Russia shared research in the Barents...no matter where you look, the arc of
this relationship bends towards cooperation . But there's a bigger misconception that underlies the predictions of future
Arctic conflict that we read every week. This is the (usually) unspoken assumption that the governments of these
states are capable of acting quickly, unilaterally and secretly to pursue their interests in the Arctic. False. This idea
that some state might manage a political or military smash-and-grab while the rest of us are busy
clipping our fingernails or walking the dog is ridiculous. The overwhelming weight of evidence suggests that
the governments of the Arctic states are, like most massive organizations, bureaucratic messes. Infighting between federal agencies is rampant

chatter
about military activism isnt backed up by much: Canada is engaged in a sad debate over the downgrading of the proposed
all around, as are political shoving matches between federal and state/provincial/regional governments. Money is still scarce, and

Nanisivik port; the United States icebreaker fleet is barely worth mentioning and shows little sign of new life in the near-term future; US Air
Force assets are being moved 300+ miles south from Fairbanks to Anchorage; and

Russias talk about a greater Arctic presence

we have viciously polarized governments

has been greatly inflated for the sake of the recent elections. In a more general sense,

in the US and, to a lesser extent, Canada, as well as numerous hotter wars elsewhere that will take the lions share of our blood and
treasure before the Arctic gets a drop of either.

Peaceful cooperation in arctic now economic cooperation

Alexeev 2/20 (Igor, Russian reporter, blogger, and journalist for the Strategic Culture Foundation
specializing in oil and gas politics, 2/20/13, Strategic Culture Foundation, http://www.strategicculture.org/news/2013/02/20/economic-cooperation-prevents-conflict-interests-in-arctic.html ) Okuno
New technologies and climate change have significantly raised the profile of Arctic resources for the global
economy. According to the Economist, the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Many experts quoting Alfred T. Mahans
work The Influence of Sea Power Upon History agree that seaborne commerce in the High North will become an important
geopolitical factor over the next several decades. Prospects of political dominance in the Arctic provoke heated
debates sometimes overdramatised by the media. But realpolitik dictates that all states concerned
should rely on existing legal and institutional framework enabling peaceful cooperation. Looking beyond the
media hype we should admit that political tension in the Arctic is low today. Nevertheless, business competition may
create challenges in the future. Luckily the Arcitc Council has already established all necessary mechanisms to deliver credible and balanced

military
aspects, legal environment and energy policy. Speaking about power politics the U.S. military planners currently
consider the Arctic to be an area of low conflict. Swedish experts agree with American conclusions. Background paper
regional management. If we want to understand the Arctic better, the situation analysis should cover three important areas:

Military Capabilities in the Arctic (SIPRI, 2012) says, that power projection into the Arctic in 2010-2011 was very limited. The Arctic states
maintain military presence in the region only to patrol and protect sovereign territories.

There is no sign of military standoff

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along the borders - the situation is stable and predictable. Therefore any extension of NATOs
engagement in the Arctic is counterproductive, because it could renew tensions nonexistant since the end of the
Cold War. As the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov put it in 2011, there is no reason for drawing NATO into Arctic affairs. The
Arctic is a zone of peace now and should remain so. From the legal point of view the status of the Arctic is already specified in the
provisions of the international law. The Arctic Council and the Ilulissat Declaration (Greenland, 2008) provide a solid institutional and legal
foundation for responsible management of the Arctic by the five coastal states. Under the Ilulissat declaration any demarcation issues in the
Arctic should be resolved on a bilateral basis between contesting parties. Besides, all members of the Arctic Council except the U.S. ratified an

the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Norway and Denmark also made an
Russia's final claim to a portion of the Arctic
shelf would be filed with the Comission by December 2013, according to Arthur Tchilingarov, the veteran explorer who
important treaty -

official submission into the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf.

led the expedition to plant a Russian flag on the seabed at the North Pole in 2007.

No risk of Arctic Conflict- Boundaries have been set up and no one has attacked
anyone
RT 11 [News source for Russian Politics Arctic not zone of interstate conflicts - Russian diplomat October 13, 2011
http://rt.com/politics/arctic-russia-reserves-rights-785/ accessed on August 1, 2013] JAKE LEE

The territories of the Arctic zone are already divided

and should not be a subject of dispute, Russia's special envoy and

The Russian diplomat said there have been no

conflicts involving territorial boundaries in the Arctic. "Concerning the continental shelf, no overlapping bids have been involved
representative in the Arctic Council, Anton Vasilyev, said in an interview with Interfax.

thus far, Vasilyev said. Russia filed its bid in 2001 and is gathering additional scientific proof to support it. We have done enormous work in this connection. In
May 2007, Russian

explorers traveled to the floor of the Arctic and planted a Russian flag on the seabed
4,200m (14,000ft) below the North Pole in an effort to prove that an underwater area, known as the
Lomonosov Ridge, was an extension of its continental territor y. Russias successful mission sparked something of a gold rush
in the region, which is thought to contain oil, gas and mineral reserves. We are playing by the rules
and we are working in the institutions , specially set up for this purpose, Vasilyev, who spoke at the Arctic Future Symposium, organized by
the International Polar Foundation jointly with the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, told Interfax . We can see that our partners are
doing the same." The Arctic resources already prospected lie 95-97 percent within the zone of the
Arctic states' sovereign rights, he added. Norway's additional bid got the backing from the UN
Continental Shelf Commission in 2009, while Canada and Denmark could file their additional bids, too,
he said. "It is a normal process and these countries are working to provide substantiation for their bids," Vasilyev said. The Russian special envoy then spoke about
the difficulties of proving claims so far below one of the coldest places on Earth. "Contrary to some media reports and unconscientiously written commentaries,

there is no conflict between the countries that have filed their bids for the continental shelf already,
or will probably do so, because according to the rules all of us abide by, we are to prove the same
thing, he said. Our proof and the proof to be provided by our partners, involves an enormous amount of work,
including the gathering of scientific evidence which lies in the realm of logic and natural sciences physics, geology, etc." "But most important, the
members of the Arctic Five Denmark, Canada, Norway, Russia and the United States have established a
dialogue and we exchange data and inform each other of the progress made in gathering additional proof to back our bids or in preparing new ones, he said.

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Arctic Adv - Exts #2 - No Escalation

Zero chance of conflict area is well-regulated
Mahoney 3/18 (Honor, is editor of the EU observer in Brussels and has also written for The Irish
Times, Sunday Business Post and Spiegel Online., 3/18/13, EU Observer,
http://euobserver.com/foreign/119479 ) Okuno
There is a general public perception that the Arctic region holds great potential for conflict because it is an
ungoverned region where all these resources are waiting to be picked up by the one who gets there first. That is
completely false," he said. He notes that it is an " extremely well-regulated region ," with international rules saying
that coastal states have territorial jurisdiction up to 12 nautical miles off their coast. On top of that is a further 200
nautical miles of exclusive economic zone "where you own every value in the water and under the seabed." "Up to 97 percent
of energy resources is actually belonging to someone already," says Wang. He suggest the actors in the region all want to
create a business environment, which requires stable politics and security. But he concedes there are "risk
factors." These include "ambiguous communication" (so that there is an impression of a security conflict), and possible fishing wars as fish
stocks move further north because of rising temperatures into areas with no fishing rules. A fall-out in relations between the China and the US

"Arctic itself will not create conflict ." As for the EU, it has been
seeking to gain a foothold in the region. It spends millions of euros each year on research,
environmental and social programmes in the Arctic area.
could also impact the Arctic region but the

There would never be an Arctic Conflict well-regulated

RT 2012 (News source for Russian Politics, 9/12/12, Race for Arctic Resources Shouldnt Spark New
Cold War, http://rt.com/politics/arctic-resources-russia-gas-972/ ) Okuno
With global demand for energy resources surging, the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed hopes that there will
never be a war for resources or an even hotter conflict in the Arctic Region. Foreign Ministry official Alexander
Gorban expressed confidence that no such conflict over resources would ever take place. "We are trying to fight for
the Arctic shelf, but in light of recent events involving the Shtokman field, [other sources of fuel] will prevail," Gorban
told Interfax on Wednesday. Gazprom announced last month that its foreign partners were withdrawing from the
Shtokman project due to cost concerns. Other reasons for the pullout include the shale gas revolution in
the United States, which had been viewed as a primary export market for Shtokman. Foreign companies like Total claimed that the
project has not been canceled, but simply postponed. Russia has been a pioneer in the research and development of Arctic fuel sources. In
2007, a Russian expeditionary team made a daring 4,000-meter descent to the seabed of the Arctic Ocean a historic first. The expedition
aimed to prove that the Lomonosov Ridge is an extension of Russia's landmass. If

Russias claims are validated, the find will

increase the nation's claims on the continental shelf by 1.2 million square kilometers (460,000 square miles).
This area is said to hold some nine or ten trillion tons of hydrocarbon reserves. There are five Arctic-bordering countries that
have laid claim to the vast deposits of natural resources deep below the regions frigid waters: Russia, the
United States (via Alaska), Canada, Norway and Denmark (via Greenland). The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)
gives each nation a ten-year period to register a claim to their portion of the continental shelf.

If valid, each country would have

exclusive rights to resources on or below their areas seabed.

No Arctic conflict security measures

Dyer 2012 (Gwynn, Independent Journalist specializing in International Affairs, 8/2/12, The Sudbury
Star, http://www.thesudburystar.com/2012/08/02/wars-unlikely-over-arctics-resources ) Okuno
In the Bering Strait, there is a treaty defining the seabed boundary between the U.S. and Russia, but the Russian
Duma has refused to ratify it. However, the legal uncertainty caused by the dispute is likelier to deter future
investment in drilling there than lead to war. And there was the seabed boundary dispute between Norway and Russia in the

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last year the two countries signed a deal

dividing the disputed area and providing for joint exploitation of its resources. So no war between NATO
and the Russian Federation. Which leaves the fish, and its hard to have a war over fish. If countries with
Arctic coastlines want to preserve this resource, they can only do so by creating an international body to regulate
fishing. And they will have to let other countries fish there too, with agreed catch limits. So no war over the Arctic . All we
have to worry about now is the ice is melting. But thats a problem for another day.

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Arctic Adv - Exts #4 - Ice melting

There will be no Arctic conflict- the ice is melting to fast
Dyer 12 [Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries. Sorry,
generals: No war over the warming Arctic August 4, 2012 http://www.thespec.com/opinion-story/2251611-sorry-generals-nowar-over-the-warming-arctic accessed on August 3, 2013] JAKE LEE

Arctic resources. The ice is melting fast,

and it was all the usual stuff about how there will be big strategic conflicts over the seabed resources
especially oil and gas that become accessible when its gone. The media always love conflict, and
now the Cold War is long gone, theres no other potential military confrontation between the great
powers to worry about. Governments around the Arctic Ocean are beefing up armed forces for the coming struggle, so where are the
flashpoints and what are the strategies? Its great fun to speculate about possible wars. In the end I didnt do
the interview because the Skype didnt work, so I didnt get the chance to rain on their parade. But heres what I would said to the Russians. There are three
separate resources in the Arctic. On the surface, there are the sea lanes that are opening up to
commercial traffic along the northern coasts of Russia and Canada. Under the seabed, there are
potential oil and gas deposits that can be drilled once the ice retreats. And in the water in between,
there is the planets last unfished ocean. The sea lanes are mainly a Canadian obsession, because the
government believes the North-West Passage that weaves between Canadas Arctic islands will
become a major commercial artery. Practically every summer Prime Minister Stephen Harper travels
north to declare his determination to defend Canadas Arctic sovereignty from well, its not clear
from exactly whom, but its a great photo op. Canada is getting new Arctic patrol vessels and building
a deep-water naval port and Arctic warfare training centre in the region, but its all much ado about nothing. The Arctic Ocean will increasingly be
Russian television contacted me the other night asking me to go on a program about the race for

used as a shortcut between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific, but the shipping will not go through Canadian waters. Russias Northern Sea Route will get

Then theres the hydrocarbon deposits under the Arctic

seabed, which the U.S. Geological Survey has forecast may contain almost one-fourth of the worlds
remaining oil and gas resources. But from a military point of view, theres only a problem if there is some disagreement about the seabed
the traffic, because its already open and much safer to navigate.

boundaries. There are only four areas where the boundaries are disputed. Two are between Canada and its eastern and western neighbours in Alaska and
Greenland, but there is zero likelihood of a war between Canada and the United States or Denmark (which is responsible for Greenlands defence ).

In the
Bering Strait, there is a treaty defining the seabed boundary between the United States and Russia,
signed in the dying days of the Soviet Union, but the Russian Duma has refused to ratify it. However,
the legal uncertainty caused by the dispute is likelier to deter future investment in drilling there than
to lead to war. And then there was the seabed boundary dispute between Norway and Russia in the
Barents Sea, which led Norway to double the size of its navy over the past decade. But last year the two countries signed an agreement dividing the disputed
area right down the middle and providing for joint exploitation of its resources. Which leaves the fish, and its hard to have a war
over fish. The danger is rather that the worlds fishing fleets will crowd in and clean the fish out. If the
countries with Arctic coastlines want to preserve this resource, they can only do so by creating an international body to regulate the fishing. And they will have to let
other countries fish there too, with agreed catch limits, since it is mostly international waters. They will be driven to co-operate, in their own interests.

So no

war over the Arctic. All we have to worry about now is the fact that the ice IS melting, which will
ultimately raise sea levels worldwide by seven metres. But thats a problem for another day.

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***Bioterror

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Bioterrorism Advantage Frontline

First, Bioweapons cant spread wont cause epidemic
Bailey 13 (Regina Bailey is an About.com Guide who holds a bachelor's degree in biology from Emory University, in Atlanta,
Ga., Biological Weapons, http://biology.about.com/od/biotechnologycloning/a/biological-weapons.htm, Website last updated
2013) Deng
Biological Weapons Biological weapons are toxic materials produced from pathogenic organisms (usually microbes) or artificially manufactured toxic substances
that are used to intentionally interfere with the biological processes of a host. These substances work to kill or incapacitate the host. Biological weapons may be
used to target living organisms such as humans, animals or vegetation. They may also be used to contaminate nonliving substances such as air, water and soil. There
are a variety of microorganisms that can be used as biological weapons. Agents are commonly chosen because they are highly toxic, easily obtainable and
inexpensive to produce, easily transferable from person to person, can be dispersed in aerosol form, or have no known vaccine. While

it is possible to
develop biological weapons from microbes, typically bacteria, finding a means of distributing the substances
is difficult. One possible way is through aerosols. This can be ineffective as the materials often get clogged when
spraying. Biological agents distributed by air may also be destroyed by UV light or rain may wash them
away. Another method of distribution may be to attach the toxins to a bomb so that they may be released
upon explosion. The problem with this is that the microbes will most likely be destroyed by the explosion as well.

And, bioweapon defense is getting better - solves the impact to an attack

Soligenex 13 (Soligenex Inc. is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing
products to treat inflammatory diseases and biodefense countermeasures, BioDefense and Emerging
Diseases, http://www.soligenix.com/prod_def.shtml, Website last updated 2013) Deng
Since 2001, a new sense of vulnerability to radiation, infectious diseases, toxins and chemical agents has generated significant research
and development efforts to identify and produce innovative therapies and means to protect against threats that could be used as
biological weapons. There is a growing need for products that protect the population against such agents of bioterrorism, as well as against emerging
infectious diseases that could arise through natural epidemics. With very few exceptions, such products do not exist, and those that are available for current
deployment are based on outdated and sometimes ineffective technologies. Many of these products will only be used in the event of an emergency. Products

to combat biological warfare or bioterrorism will be supplied to the population from medicines stored in the US Strategic
National Stockpile (SNS). The federal government has previously established a special fund to acquire biological
warfare countermeasures (termed Project Bioshield), which allocated $5.6 billion over a 10-year period to acquire
products for the SNS. Realizing that many of these countermeasures do not yet exist, the US government has recently established the Biomedical Advanced
Research and Development Authority (BARDA). The existence of BARDA creates a situation in which products arising from research, primarily sponsored by the
National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Department of Defense (DoD), can be prioritized and then developed for large-scale manufacturing and clinical
evaluation, and ultimately acquisition of the product for the SNS. Soligenix,

Inc. is addressing the development of products and

technologies that can be used to protect against several biological threats considered agents of
bioterrorism, consistent with biological warfare threats and emerging diseases that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a
division of the NIH, has identified as high priorities. Soligenix is developing several potential products to prevent
morbidity and mortality due to the threat of biological toxins for which preventive vaccination is the
most feasible means to protect a susceptible population. This approach is being taken because the known mechanism of
protection against toxin exposure is mediated through antibodies in the serum or present on mucosal surfaces that can be elicited by vaccination with subunit
immunogens. Soligenix's

process for product development of biodefense products is highly cooperative

with government funding, since the government itself will be the final supplier of the products.
Currently, Soligenix is operating under a $9.4 million grant award from NIAID, which will fund, over a five-year period,
the development of formulation and manufacturing processes for vaccines, including RiVax (ricin toxin vaccine), and VeloThrax
(anthrax vaccine) that are stable at elevated temperatures. The grant will also fund the development of improved thermostable adjuvants expected to result in
rapidly acting vaccines that can be given with fewer injections over shorter intervals. In addition, Soligenix is expanding the range of applicability of its lead product,
oral beclomethasone dipropionate (BDP), referred to as OrbeShield, for gastrointestinal Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS).

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Bioterror Adv - Exts #1 - No attack - Al Qaeda

No risk of Al Qaeda attack
Stewart 11 (Scott 1/8/11 Why Al Qaeda is Unlikely to Execute Another 9/11
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110831-why-al-qaeda-unlikely-execute-another-911) Scullion
Since we published our 2011 forecast, bin Laden has been killed as well as senior al Qaeda leader Atiyah Abd alRahman, who reportedly died in a strike by a U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle Aug. 22 in Pakistan's North Waziristan region. We continue to
believe that the al Qaeda core group is off balance and concerned for its security -- especially in light of
the intelligence gathered

in the raid on bin Laden's hideout. The core group simply does not enjoy the

operational freedom it did prior to September 2001. We also believe the group no longer has the same operational capability
in terms of international travel and the ability to transfer money that it had prior to 9/11. Some people believe there is a greater chance of an
attack on this year's 9/11 anniversary because of the killing of bin Laden, while others note that al-Zawahiri may feel pressure to conduct an
attack in order to prove his credibility as al Qaeda's new leader. Our belief, as noted above, is that al

Qaeda has been doing its

utmost to attack the United States and has not pulled any punches. Because of this, we do not believe it possesses
the ability to increase this effort beyond where it was prior to bin Laden's death. As to the pressure on al-Zawahiri, we noted in December 2007
that the al Qaeda core had been under considerable pressure to prove itself relevant for several years and that, despite this pressure, had yet
to deliver. Because of this, we do not believe that the pressure to conduct a successful attack is any heavier on al-Zawahiri today than it was
prior to bin Laden's death. Finally, we believe that if al Qaeda possessed the capability to conduct a spectacular attack it would launch the
attack as soon as it was operationally ready, rather than wait for some specific date. The risk of discovery is simply too great.

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***Disease

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Disease Advantage Frontline

1 - Advances in vaccine technology solve disease extinction
McCullers 2008 [Jonathan, MD, Adjunct faculty at St Jude Childrens Research Hospital, Chair of the Department of
Pediatrics at University of Tennessee, Pediatrician in Chief at Le Bonheur Childrens Hospital, National Center for
Biotechnology Information, January 2008, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2730064/] Bak
The discovery of vaccines has led to the near eradication of several important diseases and has had a tremendous impact on health for a relatively low cost. However, most vaccines in

The introduction of
genetic engineering has fueled rapid advances in vaccine technology and is now leading to the entry of
new products in the marketplace. In the past, options for the utilization of vaccines in the area of managed care had been quite limited because of the
use today were developed by techniques that were pioneered more than 100 years ago and do not represent the full potential of the field.

historically straightforward application of immunizations. The growing number and type of vaccine targets, coupled with novel, more effective formulations, adjuvants, and routes of
delivery for vaccines, will undoubtedly create new challenges. Although progress in vaccine technology has the potential to prevent illness and reduce the economic burden of diseases
in the long term, thereby improving outcomes, ongoing problems remain in the short term. Who should and will pay for these anticipated improvements in health? How will this
period of change be managed? This article describes the present vaccine revolution and attempts to answer these questions, which are becoming increasingly important in managed

Universal immunization against

certain diseases has led to the eradication of smallpox and has almost completely eliminated many
other infectious agents in the U.S., including those causing diphtheria, tetanus, poliomyelitis, measles,
mumps, rubella, and Haemophilus influenzae type b invasive disease.1 However, many other diseases, including the three biggest killers
care.The advent of vaccines to prevent deadly childhood illnesses was one of the great success stories of the 20th century.

human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, tuberculosis, and malariahave not yet been adequately targeted by a vaccine effective enough to achieve a similar outcome. In
addition, some common vaccine-preventable diseases such as influenza and pertussis continue to cause significant morbidity and mortality, primarily in adults, because of the under-

Recent advances in vaccine technology stemming from the application

of genetic engineering are now providing an opportunity to target new diseases. The previous centurys successes in
utilization or ineffectiveness of available vaccines.2,3

reducing the primary causes of mortality in childhood now include protecting against infectious agents that can result in significant morbidity. Scientific progress and these broadened
applications will no doubt result in improved health-based outcomes, but progress often comes at a significant short-term cost. Although it is true that improved outcomes are the goal
of health care technology and that preventing disease is preferable to treatment, thus reducing overall costs, confusion persists about the best course going forward. Given the current
underutilization of vaccines (even when patients have no copayments) and the expanding use of vaccines to cover morbidity rather than mortality, managed care organizations
(MCOs) are confronted with several questions, particularly in terms of benefits, reimbursement, and formulary management. To accept the newer vaccine technology, MCOs will
require not only improved mortality data but also cost-efficacy data with long-term proven outcomes accompanied by lower medical and pharmacy expenses. For example, the use of
new vaccines for human papillomavirus (HPV) must result in fewer cases of cervical cancer as well as in reduced cost savings in related medical expenses, such as for Pap smears and
colposcopies. In this way, a manufacturer might be able to differentiate its product from a competing one. For several years, cost efficacy has been used to evaluate other classes of
injectable vaccines, and it is a good method of comparing products when no head-to-head studies have been conducted. MCOs are beginning to analyze data involving comparisons of
outlays for resources for specific outcomes, such as adverse events and hospitalizations. Most vaccines in use today were developed by one of two classic methods. In the 19th century,
Salmon and Smith pioneered the inactivation of an organism and the injection of immunogenic components.4 The attenuation of live organisms, as first attempted by Louis Pasteur,5
was adapted to modern vaccine technology by Enders et al. in the 1950s.6 All but three vaccines in the currently recommended immunization schedule in the U.S.those directed
against hepatitis B virus, rotavirus, and HPVare manufactured according to these techniques. In the 1970s, a pair of key discoveriesthe expression of proteins in plasmids and the
ability to sequence DNAushered in the era of genetic engineering.7,8 A decade later, in 1986, these techniques were used to develop the first recombinant vaccine, the hepatitis B
vaccine.9 Recombinant technology enables the target antigen to be produced outside the context of the parent organism, such that no live, infectious agents or potentially toxic
components of those agents need to be handled. As a result, the quantity of antigen produced, the vaccines safety, and the purity of the product are improved; efficacy is increased;
costs are reduced; and potential side effects are minimized. Since the advent of the hepatitis B vaccine in 1998, one recombinant vaccine, LYMErix, has been approved. Although
LYMErix was effective against Lyme disease in adults,10 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) withdrew this product in 2002 because of declining sales and negative publicity.11 This outcome has
dampened enthusiasm for further development of human vaccines against Lyme disease, but it has not had an adverse impact on the prospects for creating a vaccine that uses a
similar strategy of a recombinant protein against other infectious agents. Many other recombinant vaccines are currently being evaluated in clinical trials to determine their activity
against such varied targets as malaria, hookworm, cytomegalovirus, parvovirus, and anthrax.12 The second major advance in the 1980s was in the area of adjuvantation. Adjuvants are
used to improve the presentation of an antigen to the immune system or to enhance its immunogenicity. The only adjuvants currently approved in the U.S. for the concomitant use
with vaccines are the mineral salts calcium phosphate and alum.13 Mineral salts are still used in some inactivated vaccines, but their effectiveness is modest at best. For example,
aluminum salts were included in early influenza vaccine formulations but were removed when the vaccines showed comparable immunogenicity in the absence of these salts.14 In
1987, however, the application of conjugation as a method of adjuvantation led to the approval of a highly effective vaccine against H. influenzae type b, a leading cause of invasive
infections, including meningitis, in children.15 Polysaccharide-based vaccines in general are poorly immunogenic, particularly in small children, because of a lack of T-cell help for the
B-celldependent antibody response. Conjugating polysaccharides to a toxoid carrier converts these antigens from T-independent to T-dependent antigens, thus improving overall
immunogenicity and lengthening the period of effectiveness.16 The success of this approach has led to the development of other polysaccharide conjugate vaccines, including Prevnar
(Wyeth), a 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine approved in the U.S. in 2000, and Menactra (Sanofi-Pasteur), a quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine licensed in the U.S. in 2004. A
vaccine directed against the serotypes of Salmonella typhi, which is responsible for typhoid fever, is now being studied.12 The ongoing problem of suboptimal immunogenicity of
protein-based vaccines, coupled with the success of conjugation for polysaccharide-based vaccines, is driving a search for new vaccine adjuvants. We predict that the development of

Entire viral genomes can now be cloned into

bacterial or yeast vectors, allowing manipulation of genes prior to rescue, or regeneration of
infectious organisms in culture. These techniques enable the rapid custom design of organisms for use
in vaccines. Influenza virus vaccines can serve as an example. The surface proteins from circulating strains can be cloned into plasmids and are co-expressed with a set of
virtually all vaccines licensed from this point forward will involve some form of genetic engineering.

backbone genes responsible for high growth in eggs but attenuation in humans, allowing the production of safe, high-yield vaccines.17 Undesirable traits, such as the multibasic
cleavage site found in the main attachment protein of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, can be edited out at the DNA level before rescue of the virus, further enhancing
safety.18 The use of plasmid-based methods also has the potential to hasten production of reassortant vaccines (i.e., vaccines from viruses created by combining genes from more than
one organism or strain). The current process for making influenza vaccine relies on selecting appropriate vaccine strains from among many candidates generated by chance, whereas
molecular methods allow complete control over the output, eliminating several steps in the generation of seed stocks.17 A variety of virus types, engineered by these methods to be
safe in humans, are being used to express immunogenic foreign proteins outside of the context of the virulent parent organism. As an example, adenoviruses in which critical virulence
genes are deleted have been used to express proteins from HIV19 and are being utilized in clinical trials for many other pathogens such as the Ebola virus and malaria.12 It may be
possible to create vaccine cocktails directed against several different pathogens by inserting multiple proteins into a single vector or by mixing several vaccines made with the same
viral vector but expressing different proteins.20 It is also possible to deliver the immunogenic proteins without using a replication-competent, live virus. Virus-like particles (VLPs) are
self-assembling constructs that express a viral antigen, but they do not contain the necessary material to replicate. This technology was used to develop Gardasil, Mercks vaccine to
protect against HPV, approved in 2006.21 In conjunction with new technology for vaccines, adjuvants are also needed. New compounds may enhance immunogenicity quantitatively,
by increasing the levels of protective immune responses, and qualitatively, by eliciting responses from different arms of the immune system or by broadening the scope of covered
immunogens. This advance has the potential to improve overall outcomes and achieve cost-savings by allowing lower doses to be used and, possibly, by eliminating or postponing the
need for booster injections. Although no new adjuvants have been approved in the U.S. since the original licensing of the mineral salts, several compounds appear close to being
approved. The squalene-containing, oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant MF59 from Novartis has been approved in Europe for use in influenza vaccines targeted to the elderly
population.22 In a clinical trial in humans, another oil-in-water emulsion from GSK enhanced the immunogenicity of a potential pandemic influenza vaccine. This vaccine enabled the

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dose to be reduced, and it induced responses that were cross-reactive in several clades (distinct virus groupings).23Clinical trials of GSKs VLP-based HPV vaccine Cervarix have
shown similar cross-protective responses to subtypes not included in the vaccine, which might be attributable to the novel adjuvant ASO4.21,24,25 The ability of certain adjuvants to
enhance the levels of memory B cells and antibodies, in some cases to numbers much higher than those seen with natural infection,26 has implications for the longevity of the
response as well. In one study comparing ASO4 plus alum with alum alone against HPV, significantly higher antibody titers were observed when ASO4 was included.26 This advantage
was maintained during long-term follow-up. These dual benefitsextending the time that antibody levels are maintained above the threshold required for neutralization of the
organism and enhancing the capacity of the patient to respond to a booster immunizationare important for future planning and estimating costs. However, we need to better define
the correlates of immunity for specific vaccines. The threshold necessary for neutralization differs among various organisms; knowing this parameter and other related measures is
desirable and sometimes necessary. Advances in vaccine technology necessitate concomitant advances in vaccine immunology. Considering the rising costs of research and
development, another desirable feature of adjuvants is their ability to be paired with multiple antigens so that they can be included in different vaccines. For example, ASO4 has been
studied in conjunction with both hepatitis B and HPV vaccines.26 This capability can reduce the vaccines developmental costs and the time to market. With each new adjuvant and
each new combination of adjuvant and vaccine, the advantages of increased immunogenicity, longevity, and perhaps broadened coverage of strains must be balanced with the
potential for increased reactogenicity. In this context, reactogenicity refers to the generally undesirable effects of the vaccine, typically mediated by the immune response to the
vaccine rather than by the products direct toxicological effects. Redness or swelling at an injection site are two common examples. Despite this rapid technical progress, vaccines were
not on the radar screen for managed care before some of the recent product launches. Previously, the extent of managed cares involvement was limited to assisting in acquiring
supplies for some integrated systems, working with quality on Health Plan Employer Data and Information Set (HEDIS) measures, and participating in clinics and health fairs.
However, the advent of newer vaccines that target diseases causing morbidity rather than mortality in the U.S. (e.g., rotavirus or herpes zoster) is encouraging MCOs to perform more
clinical and economic analyses in order to ensure that their investments in vaccination are being maximized. The entry of the live attenuated influenza vaccine FluMist (MedImmune)
into the market in 2004 and the anticipated introduction of a second HPV vaccine (Cervarix, GSK) present new challenges. These products target essentially the same disease
processes as those targeted by vaccines already approved, but they differ in their approach and, potentially, in their clinical effectiveness. The availability of similar products is
relatively new in the world of vaccines, and MCOs will have to evaluate them closely in terms of their efficacy, safety, and economic impact. For example, the question confronting
MCOs, in view of the HPV vaccine (Gardasil), as well as ASO4, and MF59, is whether the potential of lower reactogenicity from an established adjuvant is more important than the
potential for a stronger and possibly more durable immunogenic response. Ultimately, we might simply derive the answer if we know which product provides better protection
against the HPV types most commonly linked to cervical cancer in a cost-effective manner. These types of analyses place a greater value on cost-effectiveness, clinical, and budgetimpact data for the newer vaccinesdata that have been lacking in the past. Although short-term benefits offer immediate returns to MCOs, it would be irresponsible for these health
plans to focus exclusively on these benefits and deny coverage of vaccines in an effort to save money. Such restrictions place the broader population at risk, and they may have the
unintended consequence of damaging a companys reputation. Further, a focus on short-term benefits puts health plans at a disadvantage in terms of competing for participants during
enrollment; most plans offer broad vaccine coverage, although there might be restrictions based on product labels, guidelines, or age limitations. Another way to increase the value of
future vaccines would be to quantify both the possible short-term and long-term cost offsets attributable to the availability of the specific product. Again, because it is crucial that
MCOs not waste money, the emphasis should be on outcomes and cost-effectiveness. In concert with the advances in vaccine engineering and adjuvantation, novel routes of delivery
are also being investigated. Intradermal delivery directly to an environment rich in antigen-presenting cells (APCs) is considered to be a dose-sparing measure for several vaccines,
including those used for HIV and influenza.27 Needle-free variants of this route, such as trans-dermal patches and electroporation, are also being tested for conditions as diverse as
influenza, travelers diarrhea, and melanoma.12,28,29 Mucosal delivery, which has the advantage of not requiring a needle, is already being used for several vaccines. The live,
attenuated influenza vaccine FluMist is given as a nasal spray, and the rotavirus vaccine, licensed in the U.S in 2006, is delivered orally.30,31 The mucosal route of delivery may
contribute to the heterovariant cross-protection seen with both of these vaccines by inducing broader immunity, including mucosal immunoglobulin A. Mucosal delivery is also being
studied for several other potential vaccines directed against diseases such as HIV infection and tuberculosis.12 In the past, MCOs tended not to pay a premium for convenience alone. If
an alternative (needle-free) route of delivery is associated with improved outcomes, such a premium might be worth the additional investment. The demand for vaccines by employers
and physicians is also an important consideration. Individual health plan members and small employers might be less willing to cover the cost of new vaccines because of the possibly
significant impact on premiums. Small employers with a pool of healthy young employees might not be interested in covering vaccines for disease states with poorly documented
short-term benefits. With the arrival of many new biologic agents and vaccines, as well as the future role of genomics, the traditional model of medical coverage may need to evolve.
The questions of how these innovations will be funded and who will fund them may become more fluid. In the past, the question of whether different vaccines created an equivalent
reduction in morbidity and mortality for the same cost was not asked; however, this question needs to be addressed. Many payment and reimbursement structuresranging from
universal coverage, effective from the first dollar, to differing levels of reimbursement, such as a standard coverage (100%) versus a nonstandard benefit (a 20% plan member
copayment)will be analyzed and reviewed by those responsible for funding these advances. Again, documented clinical and financial outcomes and targeted disease states will be
playing a significant role in determining how health plans approach the placement of vaccine products. The role of activism and the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices
(ACIP) guidelines will remain important variables. This is because many health plans routinely follow the ACIPs recommendations; if this reviewing body begins to cover certain
vaccines or populations, many plans will probably follow those guidelines. The success of vaccines against childhood diseases has created enthusiasm for researching additional
targets. Mercks Gardasil was the first vaccine licensed with a primary indication to prevent cervical cancer. A second HPV vaccine, Cervarix is being considered for licensure in the U.S.
Other preventive cancer vaccines are also in development, many of which are in clinical trials,12 and therapeutic vaccines designed to treat or ameliorate different types of cancer
after it has occurred are also being pursued. Therapeutic vaccines for chronic infectious diseases such as hepatitis B, HIV, and cytomegalovirus are being studied, as are vaccines
designed to halt or reverse the progression of Alzheimers disease.12,32 Even with these new goals and with the trend of therapeutic vaccines moving toward targeting morbidity
rather than mortality, we must still ask: How should efficacy be analyzed? Although 100% efficacy is rarely seen, products with the greatest clinical impact on the broadest population
have been favored. With some of the newer agents, this criterion might not remain as important. For instance, if a vaccine works in a portion of the population and that segment can be
identified, an MCO might direct the products use to ensure its appropriateness for that segment. If a screening tool or a laboratory value can narrow the pool of patients to those who
are most likely to benefit from a vaccine, an MCO might use controls (e.g., prior authorizations) to ensure that the most appropriate patients are being targeted with that tool or lab
value, thereby resulting in improved success and in protection of the companys financial investment. As more costly vaccines enter the market, the financial implications for health
plans and physicians will become more pronounced. The debate over who will pay and how much will be paid will only intensify. Vaccines remain the single best investment in health
care,33 but the costs associated with the increasing options are beginning to strain both public and private systems. Most health plans have liberal coverage and reimbursement
policies for vaccines, and this approach is considered to offer a good return on investment. As we mentioned earlier, this traditional approach may be re-examined in some areas, with
many alternative options to be explored. With most of these alternatives, one goal remains: making sure that the best vaccines reach the right patients with few impediments. For
physicians, the introduction of newer vaccines has led to a greater number of nontraditional vaccinators, such as pharmacies and businesses traditionally outside the health care
system that are now becoming acquainted with, and challenged by, the financial implications. Expectations about reimbursement levels and profitability may need to be addressed to
ensure that all parties involvedhealth plans, physicians, employers, and patientsfeel their contribution is significant. In 2007, the immunization schedule for children was already
crowded; 15 different vaccines were recommended for children from birth to six years of age, and 14 were recommended for older children, seven to 18 years of age. Many of these
vaccines are administered multiple times, and adults may need additional boosters. The development and approval of new vaccines against infectious diseases, as well as other
potential uses for them, are likely to exacerbate this problem. A desire to simplify the regimen is fueling a trend toward combination vaccines. Although many combined vaccines have
been used historically (e.g., diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus), new combinations are being approved for children (e.g., pentavalent vaccines such as GSKs Pediarix [diphtheria,
acellular pertussis, tetanus, hepatitis B, and inactivated polio vaccine]) and for adults (e.g., GSKs Twinrix for hepatitis A and B). The main challenge will be to balance immunogenicity
in the newer formulations while maintaining their benefits of easier administration and lower costs. In this regard, adherence is likely to be a key issue in the future. If it can be shown
that a product improves compliance and clinical outcomes while reducing costs, that vaccine may benefit from preferential positioning by health plans. For instance, Happe et al., using
data from SelectHealth, retrospectively compared children receiving the HEDIS Combination 2 vaccine series with those receiving each vaccine series individually.34 By two years of
age, children in the combination cohort were more likely to have been fully vaccinated, and vaccinated within the recommended age ranges, than children receiving each series
individually (86.9% vs. 74.1%, P < 0.001; 45.2% vs. 37.5%, P = 0.001 respectively). Additional studies with data indicating improved compliance rates and outcomes support the value
of this technological advancement. Vaccines exemplify the premise behind managed care to promote wellness and prevent disease while also avoiding unnecessary treatment-related
costs. The benefits of childhood vaccines in reducing mortality alone are undeniable.1 However, the costbenefit relationship for the new generation of vaccines that can target
reductions in morbidity or prevent rare and costly illnesses such as cancer is less clear. The promise of a brighter future is motivation up to a point; eventually, however, as the health
care dollar is stretched, proven results, both clinical and financial, will be required. In health care, there is an increasing awareness of the need to look at the bigger picture and to
have less siloing between pharmacy and medical divisions. Most organizations that practice evidence-based medicine acknowledge that both pharmacy and medical dollars often
need to be spent in order to realize improved overall outcomes and reduced long-term expenses. One obstacle that affects this investment is the phenomenon of continuous
enrollment in areas of the community with high competition for plan enrollees. If one plan invests liberally in vaccine benefits but a competitor does not, is the plan making the
investment placed at a disadvantage in terms of premiums? Community-wide standards, agreed upon by health plans, employers, and physicians, would need to address this matter

Rapid advances in our

understanding of the immune system and our desire to engineer both preventive and therapeutic
vaccines for a wide spectrum of diseases are fueling changes in medicine and in the managed care
industry. There will be a growing emphasis on providing evidence-based medicine demonstrating tangible, long-term clinical benefits and cost effectiveness. There will always
and ensure that all parties act in concert through their investments in the short-term and long-term health of the community.

be a need to balance cost, efficacy, and choice, and our advancements in science will force all parties to alter their approaches to treatment.

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2- Disease cant cause extinction Burnout theory

Gerber 2005 [Leah, PhD, Associate Professor of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Science Ecological Society of
America, August 2005, https://labs.eemb.ucsb.edu/kuris/armand/pubs/Gerber_etal_05_EA.pdf] Bak
The density of a population is an important parameter for both PVA and hostpathogen theory. A fundamental

principle of
epidemiology is that the spread of an infectious disease through a population is a function of the density
of both susceptible and infectious hosts. If infectious agents are supportable by the host species of
conservation interest, the impact of a pathogen on a declining population is likely to decrease as
the host population declines. A pathogen will spread when, on average, it is able to transmit to a
susceptible host before an infected host dies or eliminates the infection (Kermack and McKendrick 1927,
Anderson and May 1991). If the parasite affects the reproduction or mortality of its host, or the host is able to
mount an immune response, the parasite population may eventually reduce the density of susceptible hosts to a
level at which the rate of parasite increase is no longer positive. Most epidemiological models indicate that

there is a host threshold density (or local population size) below which a parasite cannot invade, suggesting that rare or depleted species
should be less subject to host-specific disease. This has implications for small, yet increasing, populations. For example, although
endangered species at low density may be less susceptible to a disease outbreak, recovery to higher densities places them an increasing
risk of future disease-related decline (e.g., southern sea otters; Gerber et al. 2004). In the absence of stochastic factors (such as those
modeled in PVA), and given the usual assumption of disease models that the chance

that a susceptible host will become

infected is proportional to the density of infected hosts (the mass action assumption) a host- specific
pathogen cannot drive its host to extinction (McCallum and Dobson 1995). Extinction in the absence of stochasticity is
possible if alternate hosts (sometimes called reservoir hosts) relax the extent to which transmission depends on the density of the
endangered host species. Similarly, if transmission occurs at a rate proportional to the frequency of infected hosts relative to uninfected
hosts (see McCallum et al. 2001), endangered hosts at low density may still face the threat of extinction by disease. These possibilities
suggest that the complexities characteristic of many real host pathogen systems may have very direct implications for the recovery of
rare endangered specie of extinction by disease. These possibilities suggest that the complexities characteristic of many real host
pathogen systems may have very direct implications or the recovery of rare endangered species,

3- No solvency for impacts---New infectious diseases will always appear and quicker
than medical tech advances
Bransfield 01 (Dr. Robert Carroll Bransfield M.D. The Neuropsychiatric Assessment of Lyme Disease. February 1, 2001.
http://www.mentalhealthandillness.com/tnaold.html ) Ji

Microbes evolve faster than people. For this reason, infectious disease will always exist. Many poorly understood
diseases were later found to have an infectious disease basis. Infectious agents are continually evolving. New organisms are being recognized,
and old ones develop new capabilities. As we develop new therapeutic agents, microbes evolve
defenses against this technology. We are seeing increasing problems with infectious disease in
humans and animals. Why? Are we losing ground in the "arms war"? Is this due to increased exposure to otherwise remote part of the globe? Is it a
natural cycle of infectious disease? Is it a result of a declining global environment? Has the irresponsible use of technology contributed to this problem? Why is
Lyme disease more prevalent now? How much of what is called "Lyme disease" is some other infectious disease? Could some of these patients be infected with
seronegative syphilis? What can we do to reduce the number of infected ticks in our environment?

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Disease Adv - Exts #1 - Vaccines check

Constant improvements in vaccines solve disease extinction past proves
Greenwood and Pisani 4/18 [Jim, President and CEO of Biotechnology Industry Organization, Director general
of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers & Associations, The Hill, April 18 2013,
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/294505-the-promise-of-vaccines-for-preventing-and-eradicatingdisease] Bak

During the last three decades, the biopharmaceutical industry has invested significantly in new and
improved vaccines. The results have provided remarkable new ways to prevent cases of cervical
cancer, meningitis, pneumonia, pandemic influenza, and rotavirus diseases. The collaborative
efforts of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), World Health Organization (WHO), national
governments and industry have led to major progress in addressing global immunization goals and
reducing illness and death due to vaccine-preventable diseases. According to the WHO, immunizations
prevent between two and three million deaths each year. Thanks to polio eradication efforts,
for example, the WHO estimates that more than eight million people are walking today who would
otherwise be paralyzed, and the incidence of polio has declined by 99.8 percent. In 1980, before
widespread vaccination, measles caused an estimated 2.6 million deaths annually. The WHO reports that the
number has dropped by 71 percent, thanks to vaccinations. Vaccines do not just save lives, they also save money.
The CDC estimates that for every dollar spent in the U.S. on pediatric vaccines, we save $10.20. In fact, the U.S. saves almost $70 million
in direct and indirect costs each year as a result of the pediatric vaccination program. In 2005, Harvard University scientists calculated
that spending on the GAVI Alliances program to expand vaccine coverage would deliver a rate of return of 18 percent by 2020, higher
than most other health preventions. The Gates Foundation, meanwhile, has found that just three vaccines HIB, pneumococcal and
rotavirus have the capacity to save $63 billion annually. Although vaccinations

are among the most cost-effective

health interventions developed, vaccine development is a highly complex, lengthy, expensive and high-risk venture. Despite
that hurdle, the research and development pipeline is robust. According to BIO Ventures for Global Health, there are more than
200 vaccines in development targeting 23 neglected diseases that disproportionately affect the
poorest countries, such as dengue, cholera, malaria, and tuberculosis. As science expands and our
world shrinks, we have unrealized opportunities to reach and save greater numbers of people. We
have the power to increase the availability of vaccinations to respond to a wider variety of
infectious and non-infectious diseases.

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Disease Adv - Exts #2 - No extinction

Disease cant cause extinction Lethal diseases burnout quickly
Carlson 2006 [Shawn, PhD, MacArthur Fellow, Founder and Executive Director for Society of Amateur Scientists,
Creator of LABRats, The Tribe, April 2 2006, http://tribes.tribe.net/freedomguardians/thread/084f5b5c-379c-487aa99d-c9ca6d386951] Bak
Forrest M. Mims III has reported in a Special Feature in The Citizen Scientist ("Meeting Dr. Doom," 31 March 2006) on a lecture he
recently heard at a meeting of the Texas Academy of Science. The Academy chose to honor one Professor

Eric R. Pianka, an

eminent ecologist who studies desert ecologies, with its 2006 Distinguished Texas Scientist Scientist award. Professor Pianka used
the occasion to champion the notion, apparently without sanction of the Academy, that the Earth can only be saved if ninety percent of
the human beings alive today are purged form the planet. He championed airborne Ebola as the most efficient virus to accomplish this.
And while he stopped short of calling for terrorist action to bring this result about, he clearly implied that this was a right and proper
future for our species and our planet. Astonishingly, after advocating for a future in which more than 5,000,000,000 persons would die a
slow and agonizing death, many members of the Texas Academy of Science stood to their feet and applauded. I want to answer two
questions here. Do academic institutions like the Texas Academy of Science have a duty to provide Professor Pianka a forum to advance
these ideas? And what might the consequences be of allowing him to do so? My answer to the first question is a resounding "no."
Furthermore, I am convinced that continuing to allow Professor Pianka unfettered access to impressionable students could one day lead
to a loss of life that could make the Killing Fields of Southeast Asia look like a picnic ground. Let me explain. First, do Pianka's opinions
deserve protection under the rubric of academic freedom? Well, that depends on whether this ideas are truly academicthat is, that they
are consistent with the best understanding of our world that science has established. Now consider Pianka's arguments. Pianka claims
that the natural world would be "better off" if there weren't so many humans. To see if that's true, we have to figure out just what
constitutes the "natural world"? As an evolutionist, I see human beings as the products of the same natural forces that shaped all other
life on earth. Our brains evolved on this planet subject to the same kinds of natural selection pressures as those that shaped peacock
feathers. The same can be said of all of our social structures, our religions and every other aspect of what we are that helped us secure
resources and propagate our species (the hammer and anvil of natural selection). In short, our institutions and our technology are every
bit as much a part of the natural world as elk mating rituals and beaver dams. In fact, by evolving the ability to adapt the world to fit us ,
human beings have become better at securing resources and procreating than any other vertebrate on the planet. By this measure, we
are evolution's most successful creation (amongst vertebrates). If extraterrestrials were asked to select nature's most successful
vertebrate on the Earth they would certainly point to us. So it seems very strange to me for an evolutionist to identify one of evolution's
most successful creations as somehow operating outside the natural order. To do so is to deny this undeniable truth of evolution. Pianka,
however, is an evolutionist who believes that humanity is not part of the natural world. Somehow, the fact our evolution led us to a point
whereby we can adapt our environment to our bodies, rather than wait for our bodies to adapt to our environment, puts us in an inferior
position in nature. In his mind, Homo sapiens are the despoilers, the corruptors of the natural order. This viewpoint is every bit as
anthropocentric as those who would place humans in a superior position, saying that we are the "pinnacle of evolution" or "chosen by
God." Only instead of lauding humanity's position in nature, Pianka denigrates it. Evolution supports neither camp. Pianka is, of course,
free to ignore the evidence and believe that humanity is, as he says, the "scourge" on the natural world. But this is a political opinion
based on some vision he holds in his mind about the way the world ought to be. It is not a scientific fact. Indeed, it is a glaring scientific
fallacy. Pianka also argues that human beings are now so densely populated that they provide an idea vector for disease transmission,
and he expects

that microbes will "ultimately purge the Earth of the scourge of humanity." (Personal
correspondence with Forrest Mims.) The data stand utterly against this idea. Plagues have run
rampant through human populations throughout time. Millions have died. Huge fractions of some populations have
been wiped out. But the net death rate has never come close to the fractions that Pianka envisions.
Virulent diseases that kill quickly tend to burn themselves out. Natural selection creates less lethal
varieties because an organism can't spread if it kills its host before it can propagate. The flu pandemic of
1918 (the influenza virus is championed by Pianka) may have killed 50 million people, but that was only about 5 percent of those
infected. Moreover, every year sees medical advancementsscreening techniques improve, as do our methods of creating new vaccines
and treating illness of all kinds. Not only that, a desperate situation would be met by desperate measures, including the implementation
of martial law, the halting of all air and ground traffic except for emergency vehicles and so on, to stop contagion. In short,

there is
no historical precedent that supports the notion that humanity could be ninety percent
depopulated by a single disease. Moreover, as time goes on and our technology and awareness grows, the risk to humanity is
steadily falling. Professor Pianka can believe that microbes will depopulate the earth if he wants, and such alarmist nonsense by some
Ph.D.s sells lots of books. However, Pianka's viewpoint runs contrary to the best science.

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Disease Adv - Exts #3 - Diseases inevitable

Disease cant cause extinction Lethal diseases burnout quickly
Carlson 2006 [Shawn, PhD, MacArthur Fellow, Founder and Executive Director for Society of Amateur Scientists,
Creator of LABRats, The Tribe, April 2 2006, http://tribes.tribe.net/freedomguardians/thread/084f5b5c-379c-487aa99d-c9ca6d386951] Bak
Forrest M. Mims III has reported in a Special Feature in The Citizen Scientist ("Meeting Dr. Doom," 31 March 2006) on a lecture he
recently heard at a meeting of the Texas Academy of Science. The Academy chose to honor one Professor

Eric R. Pianka, an

eminent ecologist who studies desert ecologies, with its 2006 Distinguished Texas Scientist Scientist award. Professor Pianka used
the occasion to champion the notion, apparently without sanction of the Academy, that the Earth can only be saved if ninety percent of
the human beings alive today are purged form the planet. He championed airborne Ebola as the most efficient virus to accomplish this.
And while he stopped short of calling for terrorist action to bring this result about, he clearly implied that this was a right and proper
future for our species and our planet. Astonishingly, after advocating for a future in which more than 5,000,000,000 persons would die a
slow and agonizing death, many members of the Texas Academy of Science stood to their feet and applauded. I want to answer two
questions here. Do academic institutions like the Texas Academy of Science have a duty to provide Professor Pianka a forum to advance
these ideas? And what might the consequences be of allowing him to do so? My answer to the first question is a resounding "no."
Furthermore, I am convinced that continuing to allow Professor Pianka unfettered access to impressionable students could one day lead
to a loss of life that could make the Killing Fields of Southeast Asia look like a picnic ground. Let me explain. First, do Pianka's opinions
deserve protection under the rubric of academic freedom? Well, that depends on whether this ideas are truly academicthat is, that they
are consistent with the best understanding of our world that science has established. Now consider Pianka's arguments. Pianka claims
that the natural world would be "better off" if there weren't so many humans. To see if that's true, we have to figure out just what
constitutes the "natural world"? As an evolutionist, I see human beings as the products of the same natural forces that shaped all other
life on earth. Our brains evolved on this planet subject to the same kinds of natural selection pressures as those that shaped peacock
feathers. The same can be said of all of our social structures, our religions and every other aspect of what we are that helped us secure
resources and propagate our species (the hammer and anvil of natural selection). In short, our institutions and our technology are every
bit as much a part of the natural world as elk mating rituals and beaver dams. In fact, by evolving the ability to adapt the world to fit us ,
human beings have become better at securing resources and procreating than any other vertebrate on the planet. By this measure, we
are evolution's most successful creation (amongst vertebrates). If extraterrestrials were asked to select nature's most successful
vertebrate on the Earth they would certainly point to us. So it seems very strange to me for an evolutionist to identify one of evolution's
most successful creations as somehow operating outside the natural order. To do so is to deny this undeniable truth of evolution. Pianka,
however, is an evolutionist who believes that humanity is not part of the natural world. Somehow, the fact our evolution led us to a point
whereby we can adapt our environment to our bodies, rather than wait for our bodies to adapt to our environment, puts us in an inferior
position in nature. In his mind, Homo sapiens are the despoilers, the corruptors of the natural order. This viewpoint is every bit as
anthropocentric as those who would place humans in a superior position, saying that we are the "pinnacle of evolution" or "chosen by
God." Only instead of lauding humanity's position in nature, Pianka denigrates it. Evolution supports neither camp. Pianka is, of course,
free to ignore the evidence and believe that humanity is, as he says, the "scourge" on the natural world. But this is a political opinion
based on some vision he holds in his mind about the way the world ought to be. It is not a scientific fact. Indeed, it is a glaring scientific
fallacy. Pianka also argues that human beings are now so densely populated that they provide an idea vector for disease transmission,
and he expects

that microbes will "ultimately purge the Earth of the scourge of humanity." (Personal
correspondence with Forrest Mims.) The data stand utterly against this idea. Plagues have run
rampant through human populations throughout time. Millions have died. Huge fractions of some populations have
been wiped out. But the net death rate has never come close to the fractions that Pianka envisions.
Virulent diseases that kill quickly tend to burn themselves out. Natural selection creates less lethal
varieties because an organism can't spread if it kills its host before it can propagate. The flu pandemic of
1918 (the influenza virus is championed by Pianka) may have killed 50 million people, but that was only about 5 percent of those
infected. Moreover, every year sees medical advancementsscreening techniques improve, as do our methods of creating new vaccines
and treating illness of all kinds. Not only that, a desperate situation would be met by desperate measures, including the implementation
of martial law, the halting of all air and ground traffic except for emergency vehicles and so on, to stop contagion. In short,

there is
no historical precedent that supports the notion that humanity could be ninety percent
depopulated by a single disease. Moreover, as time goes on and our technology and awareness grows, the risk to humanity is
steadily falling. Professor Pianka can believe that microbes will depopulate the earth if he wants, and such alarmist nonsense by some
Ph.D.s sells lots of books. However, Pianka's viewpoint runs contrary to the best science.

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***Biodiversity

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Biodiversity Advantage Frontline

No impact to biodiversity- their calculations are flawed
Heath, 99 (Jim Heath - Australian Orchid Council Inc., 1999, Orchids Australia, WHY SAVE ORCHIDS UNDER THREAT?,
http://www.orchidsaustralia.com/whysave.htm, CM)

Here was this sane-looking manager at Western Power, telling me the company was spending $200,000
to rescue six types of orchids. Would I like to write something about it? Give me time to investigate, I
told him. I wanted to find out if it made sense. A month later, I knew it didnt make economic or
ecological sense yet the money had been wisely spent. The $200,000 went to the Plant Science and Micropropagation Unit in Perth. The
orchid project is led by Dr Kingsley Dixon, a botanist with a long reputation for saving endangered plants. To save orchids, his group isolates
the helper fungus for each one, grows thousands of plants and puts them in bushland sites. They back this up with tissue culture, cyrostorage
of shoots, and DNA fingerprinting. It is painstaking work, with no shortcuts; and it all costs. Why do it? I guessed there was some scientific
incentive for saving these delicate, about-to-expire flowers: Drakaea elastica (the Glossy-leafed Hammer orchid), Caladenia huegelii (Grand
Spider orchid), Epiblema grandiflorum ssp. cyanea (the Blue Babe in the Cradle orchid), Diuris purdiei (Purdies Donkey orchid), Diuris micrantha
(Swamp Donkey orchid) and Thelymitra mangeniae (Cinnamon Sun orchid). Weve all read about the imperatives of biodiversity, the cancercures that may flow in the sap of some rainforest shrub. Could that be it? A lot of the information about biodiversity reduces to two
assertions: Biodiversity is needed as a life-support system for the planet and as a carrier of priceless genetic information. Species are being
lost at a horrifying rate. We

hear scary estimates about how many species are disappearing from our planet but
estimates were based on the species area curve equation established
by two researchers in the Florida Keys who counted the number of species in a specific area under
study. Soon ecologists started using the same equation on Amazon rainforests and claimed something
like 50,000 species a year were being lost. However, to know how many species are lost, you have
to know how many you started with. In all of this there was a factual problem. Over the past 500
years, almost 90 per cent of the forest along the Atlantic coast of Brazil has been cleared. But guess
what? No one has found a single known species that could be declared extinct. Yet according to the
species area curve, about half the known species in that Brazilian forest should have been lost. The
scare about species extinction has been manufactured in complete contradiction to the scientific
data, declares Professor Julian Simon in his book The State of Humanity. The highest proven observed rate of extinction until now is only
those numbers may be nonsense. These

one species per year. Yet the official forecast has been 40,000 species dying out per year in the century, a million in all. It is truth that is
becoming extinct, not species. Even if species were disappearing at a great clip in the Amazon, what has this to do with orchids in Western
Australia? The Amazon scare started a Save Everything! movement. If the Amazon numbers were true (few doubted them), in time our only
companions might be cockroaches and rats. Under those conditions, saving orchids, or anything else, seemed a wonderful idea. But if the
Amazon numbers are nonsense, there is no reason to panic about saving orchids. If you want an example of an extinct Australian plant, the
last Scarlet Snake Bush died in 1995. So extinction does happen here. There are 29 other known cases like that in Western Australia, if you go
back 100 years. Most of those plants probably were wiped out in the great agricultural expansion in the first part of the 20th century (up to
about 1930). Globally this is a high extinction rate. But at least those extinctions are facts.

Biodiversity is maintainable through natural processes, nature is resilient

Isbell 12 (Forest Isbell, 2011-present, Postdoctoral Research Associate, University of Minnesota, 2010-2011, Postdoctoral Research
Fellow, McGill University 2010, Ph.D. Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Iowa State University 2005, B.S. Biology, University of Northern Iowa
2005, B.A. Chemistry Teaching, University of Northern Iowa, Causes and Consequences of Biodiversity Declines, 2012,
http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/causes-and-consequences-of-biodiversity-declines-16132475 )

Theoretical and empirical studies have identified a vast number of natural processes that can
potentially maintain biodiversity. Biodiversity can be maintained by moderately intense disturbances
that reduce dominance by species that would otherwise competitively exclude subordinate species. For
example, selective grazing by bison can promote plant diversity in grasslands (Collins et al. 1998). Additionally, biodiversity can be
maintained by resource partitioning, when species use different resources, or spatiotemporal partitioning, when species use the
same resources at different times and places. For instance, plant species in the tundra can coexist by using different sources of nitrogen or use
the same sources of nitrogen at different times of the growing season or at different soil depths (McKane et al. 2002). Furthermore,

biodiversity can be maintained by interspecific facilitation, which occurs when species positively influence one another
by increasing the availability of limiting resources, or by decreasing the limiting effects of natural enemies or physical stresses. Although
previous theoretical and empirical studies have identified numerous processes that can maintain biodiversity, ecologists and conservationists

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rarely know which of these mechanisms actually maintains biodiversity at any particular time and place. Thus, further investigation is needed to
identify the natural processes that actually maintain biodiversity in intact ecosystems.

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Biodiversity Adv - Exts #1 - No impact

Biodiversity loss does not impact the overall survivability of the environment scientifically proven
Dodds 2000 [Donald - president of North Pacific Research, The Myth of Biodiversity]
Biodiversity is a corner stone of the environmental movement. But there

is no proof that biodiversity is important to the

environment. Something without basis in scientific fact is called a Myth. Lets examine biodiversity
througout the history of the earth. The earth has been a around for about 4 billion years. Life did not
develop until about 500 million years later. Thus for the first 500 million years bio diversity was zero.
The planet somehow survived this lack of biodiversity. For the next 3 billion years, the only life on the
planet was microbial and not diverse. Thus, the first unexplainable fact is that the earth existed for 3.5 billion years, 87.5% of its
existence, without biodiversity. Somewhere around 500 million years ago life began to diversify and multiple celled species appeared. Because
these species were partially composed of sold material they left better geologic records, and the number of species and genera could be
cataloged and counted. The number of genera on the planet is a indication of the biodiversity of the planet. Figure 1 is a plot of the number of
genera on the planet over the last 550 million years. The little black line outside of the left edge of the graph is 10 million years. Notice the left
end of this graph. Biodiversity has never been higher than it is today.

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***Amazon Defo

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Amazon Deforestation Advantage Frontline

First, Alt causes- Brazilian paralysis
Reuters 6/5 [Wed Jun 5, 2013 3:34pm EDT, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/05/us-brazil-deforestationidUSBRE9541D920130605] //duffee

CONTINUED DESTRUCTION The limbo enables destruction, environmentalists say. After years of
declines, preliminary government data suggests that deforestation increased by 15 percent between
August 2012 and April 2013, compared with the same nine-month period a year earlier. The government
says a fuller picture will follow the dry season and clarify what damage is man-made and what is the result of wildfires and other natural
deterioration. But

the data so far supports the theory that high crop and commodity prices provoke
destruction, said Ferreira, the federal official. In Mato Grosso, the state with the most deforestation
since August, there was a 12 percent jump in soy planting. The government's figures are modest compared to those
compiled by Imazon, a private research institute that also tracks satellite imagery. Its figures suggest deforestation increased by as
much as 88 percent during the nine-month period. If borne out, the trend would underscore fears
that Rousseff has delegated too much enforcement to local authorities, who critics say are more likely
to favor development over environmental concerns. Deforestation is already creeping into areas
where she has declassified parkland and changed policy to allow for hydroelectric dams and other
infrastructure projects.

And, Alt cause- Warming

Watts 13 [http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/01/19/amazon-rainforest-showing-signs-ofdegradation-due-to-climate-change-nasa-warns/ Amazon rainforest showing signs of degradation due to
climate change, NASA warns, Jonathan Watts an award-winning journalist and the author of When a
Billion Chinese Jump: How China Will Save the World - or Destroy It., The Guardian, Saturday, January
19, 2013 1:21 EDT]
The US space agency Nasa warned this week that the Amazon rainforest may be showing the first signs of
large-scale degradation due to climate change. A team of scientists led by the agency found that an area twice the
size of California continues to suffer from a mega-drought that began eight years ago. The new study
shows the severe dry spell in 2005 caused far wider damage than previously estimated and its impact
persisted longer than expected until an even harsher drought in 2010. With little time for the trees to recover
between what the authors describe as a double whammy, 70m hectares of forest have been severely affected, the analysis of 10 years of
satellite microwave radar data revealed.

The data showed a widespread change in the canopy due to the dieback
of branches, especially among the older, larger trees that are most vulnerable because they provide
the shelter for other vegetation. We had expected the forest canopy to bounce back after a year with a new flush of leaf growth,
but the damage appeared to persist right up to the subsequent drought in 2010, said study co-author Yadvinder Malhi of Oxford University.

The Amazon is experiencing a drought rate that is unprecedented in a century, said the agency. Even
before 2005, water availability had been shrinking steadily for more than 10 years, which made the
trees more vulnerable. Between 2005 and 2010, localised dry spells added to the problem .

And, Amazon resilient we have best studies and data

World Climate Report 10 (nations leading publication in this realm, often cited by prominent
scientists and lawmakers, http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/about-us/)
Do a search on Global Warming and Amazon Rainforest and enjoy over 200,000 sites mostly proclaiming that Amazon rainforest may become a desert or large
portion of the rainforest will be lost or you name it. Throw in the 200 indigenous cultures in the forest, add in some clever phrases like lungs of the planet, argue
that the rainforest is being destroyed faster than anyone expected, and then claim incalculable damages all because of global warming. The

cure for

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everything and anything is surely hidden in the rainforest of the Amazon, and the loss of that
ecosystem could spell the end of us all. Three recent papers appearing in leading scientific journals
spell trouble for the alarmists claims about global warming and the precious and delicate Amazon
rainforest. The first paper appeared in Science magazine and was written by four scientists from the University of Arizona and Brazils University of So
Paulo. Saleska et al. begin reminding us that Large-scale numerical models that simulate the interactions between changing global climate and terrestrial
vegetation predict substantial carbon loss from tropical ecosystems, including the drought-induced collapse of the Amazon forest and conversion to savanna.

They further explain that Model-simulated forest collapse is a consequence not only of climate
changeinduced drought but also of amplification by the physiological response of the forest: Waterlimited vegetation responds promptly to initial drought by reducing transpiration (and
photosynthesis), which in turn exacerbates the drought by interrupting the supply of water that
would otherwise contribute to the recycled component of precipitation. This physiological feedback mechanism should
be observable as short-term reductions in transpiration and photosynthesis in response to drought under current climates. In 2005, Mother Nature conducted an
experiment for us by producing a substantial drought in the Amazon; the drought peaked in intensity during July to September of that year with the hardest hit part
of the Amazon occurring in the central and southwestern portions of Amazonia. Saleska et al. used satellite-based measurements and much to their surprise, they
found that forest canopy greenness over the drought-stricken areas increased at a highly significant rate. They

conclude that These

observations suggest that intact Amazon forests may be more resilient than many ecosystem models
assume, at least in response to short-term climatic anomalies. Next up is an article in a recent issue
of the Journal of Vegetation Science by seven scientists from Panama, Brazil, and California; the piece
is entitled Long-term variation in Amazon forest dynamics and therefore must contain horrible news
about the state of the rainforest, right? Wrong! Laurance and her team conducted five different surveys of the forest in a protected area 50
miles north of Manaus in the central Amazon; they made these measurements between 1981 and 2003. Getting right to the bottom line, they report that Forest
biomass also increased over time, with the basal area of trees in our plots, which correlate strongly with tree biomass, rising by 4% on average. They then add The
suite of changes we observedaccelerating tree growth and forest dynamism, and rising biomasslargely accords with findings from other long-term, comparative
studies of forest dynamics across the Amazon Basin. They state One of the most frequent explanations for such findings is that forest productivity is rising,
possibly in response to increasing CO2 fertilization or some other regional or global driver(s), such as increasing irradiance or rainfall variability. We are partial to
the increasing CO2 explanation, and it is worth noting that the first sentence in the Conclusions section in their abstract clearly states The

increasing
forest dynamics, growth, and basal area observed are broadly consistent with the CO2 fertilization
hypothesis. Our third recent article was written by three scientists from Brazil and Germany and it appeared in Global Biogeochemical Cycles. Lapola et al.
begin noting that Tropical South America vegetation cover projections for the end of the century differ considerably depending on climate scenario and also on
how physiological processes are considered in vegetation models. To investigate the future of the vegetation of the Amazon, the team created a numerical
Potential Vegetation Model that could be coupled with global climate models. As seen in their figure below (Figure 1), the vegetation model appears to accurately
replicate the current vegetation in the region. When they simulated climate change in the future and they included the CO2 fertilization effect, the vegetation was
largely unchanged. Without the CO2 fertilization effect, the rainforest all but disappears under their expected change in climate. And if the climate does not change
much and the CO2 fertilization effect is realized, the rainforest expands considerably. In their own words, Lapola et al. conclude Biome projections for the end of
the century in tropical South America are quite variable, depending not only on the climate scenario, but also on the effect of CO2 fertilization on photosynthesis.
Furthermore Our

simulations show that if, in the future, CO2 fertilization effect does not play any role in
tropical ecosystems then there must be substantial biome shifts in the region, including substitution
of the Amazonian forest by savanna. If the CO2 fertilization does in fact occur (and 1,000s of
experiments suggest it is occurring and will occur in the future), most of Amazonia would remain the
same.

And, Long timeframethe impacts of deforestation take on a larger scale, making it

difficult to measure
Butler 12 (Rhett Butler, Today he serves as president and editor-in-chief of the web site. He is also the senior writer and photographer,
creating much of the site's content, Consequences of deforestation, mongabay.com, July 22, 2012,
http://rainforests.mongabay.com/0901.htm) //You

mankind stands to lose much more. By

destroying the tropical forests, we risk our own quality of life, gamble with the stability of climate and
Actually the concern should not be about losing a few plants and animals;

local weather, threaten the existence of other species, and undermine the valuable services provided by biological diversity. While in most
areas environmental degradation has yet to reach a crisis level where entire systems are collapsing, it is important to examine some of the

Continuing loss
of natural systems could make human activities increasingly vulnerable to ecological
surprises in the future. The most immediate impact of deforestation occurs at the local level with the loss of ecological services
effects of existing environmental impoverishment and to forecast some of the potential repercussions of forest loss.

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Such habitats afford humans valuable services such

as erosion prevention, flood control, water filtration, fisheries protection, and
pollinationfunctions that are particularly important to the world's poorest people,
who rely on natural resources for their everyday survival. Forest loss also reduces the availability of
renewable resources like timber, medicinal plants, nuts and fruit, and game. Over the longer term, deforestation of
tropical rainforests can have a broader impact, affecting global climate and
biodiversity. These changes are more challenging to observe and forecast from local
effects, since they take place over a longer time scale and can be difficult to measure.
provided by tropical rainforests and related ecosystems.

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Amazon Defo Adv Exts - #1 - Brazil

And, Brazil will never escape the paralysis- recent collapse proves
CD 08
[Brazil Amazon Deforestation Soars, Thursday, January 24, 2008, http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/01/24/6591, Common
Dreams, Independent, non-profit newscenter and progressive community] //duffee

The Brazilian government has announced a huge rise in the rate of Amazon deforestation, months
after celebrating its success in achieving a reduction. In the last five months of 2007, 3,235 sq km
(1,250 sq miles) were lost. Gilberto Camara, of INPE, an institute that provides satellite imaging of the area, said the rate of
loss was unprecedented for the time of year. Officials say rising commodity prices are encouraging farmers to clear more
land to plant crops such as soya. The monthly rate of deforestation saw a big rise from 243 sq km (94 sq miles)
in August to 948 sq km (366 sq miles) in December. "We've never before detected such a high
deforestation rate at this time of year," Mr Camara said. His concern, outlined during a news conference in Brasilia on
Wednesday, was echoed by Environment Minister Marina Silva. Expensive soya Ms Silva said rising prices of raw materials and commodities
could be spurring the rate of forest clearing, as more and more farmers saw the Amazon as a source of cheap land. "The economic reality of
these states indicate that these activities impact, without a shadow of a doubt, on the forest," she said. The state of Mato Grosso was the
worst affected, contributing more than half the total area of forest stripped, or 1,786 sq km (700 sq miles). The states of Para and Rondonia
were also badly affected, accounting for 17.8% and 16% of the total cleared respectively. The

situation may also be worse than

reported, with the environment ministry saying the preliminary assessment of the amount of forest
cleared could double as more detailed satellite images are analysed.

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Amazon Defo Adv Exts - #2 - Warming

Amazon and global warming are inextricably tied
Masters 10
(December 03, 2010Dr. Jeff, University of Michigan, where he received his B.S. and M.S. degrees in Meteorology, Ph. D in Air Pollution
Meteorology) http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/amazon-rainforest-recovering-from-its-second-100year-drought-in-5-yea)
We often hear about how important Arctic sea ice is for keeping Earth's climate cool, but the Amazon may be even more important.
Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest takes about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, in 2005,

the drought reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere,
causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 16 - 22% of the
total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. According to Phillips et al., 2009, "The
exceptional growth in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in 2005, the third greatest in the global record, may have been partially caused by the

The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about
fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate
global warming. In late 2009, before the 2010 drought, the World Wildlife Federation released a
report, Major Tipping Points in the Earth's Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector,
which suggested that odds of extreme 2005-like droughts in the Amazon had increased from once
every 40 - 100 years, to once every 20 years. The study projected that the extreme droughts would occur once every two
Amazon drought effects documented here."

years by 2025 - 2050. This year's drought gives me concern that this prediction may be correct. The occurrence of two extreme droughts in the
past five years, when no El Nio conditions were present and record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures occurred, are suggestive of a link
between global warming and extreme Amazon drought. If

the climate continues to warm as expected, the future

health of Earth's greatest rainforest may be greatly threatened, and the Amazon may begin acting to
increase the rate of global warming.

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Amazon Defo Adv Exts #3 - Amazon resilient

No deforestation- predictive evidence
Masters 10
(December 03, 2010Dr. Jeff, University of Michigan, where he received his B.S. and M.S. degrees in Meteorology, Ph. D in Air Pollution
Meteorology) http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/amazon-rainforest-recovering-from-its-second-100year-drought-in-5-yea)

There is some good news from the Amazon--deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have fallen
14% in the past year, and are at their lowest rate on record, according to mongabay.com, an
environmental science and conservation news site that focuses on tropical forests. In 2009, Brazil
passed a law committing to a 36 - 39% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases. Reducing deforestation by
80% by 2020 was the primary method envisioned to achieve the reduction. Brazil is now four years ahead of that schedule, and no longer is the
world's biggest deforester--Indonesia now cuts down more acreage of forest each year than Brazil does.

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***Global Warming

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Global Warming Advantage Frontline

First, global warming is not anthropogenic - temperature increases due to ocean cycles
and sunspots, not CO2
Ferrara 2013 [Peter - director of entitlement and budget policy for the Heartland
Institute and senior advisor for entitlement reform and budget policy @ National Tax
Limitation Foundation, "To the horror of global warming alarmists, global cooling is
here", FORBES, May 26, http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-ofglobal-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/]
The increase in global temperatures since the late 19th century just reflects the end of the Little Ice Age. The
global temperature trends since then have followed not rising CO2 trends but the ocean temperature
cycles of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Every 20 to 30 years, the much
colder water near the bottom of the oceans cycles up to the top, where it has a slight cooling effect on
global temperatures until the sun warms that water. That warmed water then contributes to slightly warmer global
temperatures, until the next churning cycle.
Those ocean temperature cycles, and the continued recovery from the Little Ice Age, are primarily why global temperatures rose from 1915
until 1945, when CO2 emissions were much lower than in recent years. The change to a cold ocean temperature cycle, primarily the PDO, is the
main reason that global temperatures declined from 1945 until the late 1970s, despite the soaring CO2 emissions during that time from the
postwar industrialization spreading across the globe.
The 20 to 30 year ocean temperature cycles turned back to warm from the late 1970s until the late 1990s, which is the primary reason that
global temperatures warmed during this period. But that warming ended 15 years ago, and global temperatures have stopped increasing since
then, if not actually cooled, even though global CO2 emissions have soared over this period. As The Economist magazine reported in March,
The

world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010.
That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there by humanity since 1750. Yet, still no warming during
that time. That is because the CO2 greenhouse effect is weak and marginal compared to natural
causes of global temperature changes.
At first the current stall out of global warming was due to the ocean cycles turning back to cold. But
something much more ominous has developed over this period. Sunspots run in 11 year short term
cycles, with longer cyclical trends of 90 and even 200 years. The number of sunspots declined substantially in the last 11
year cycle, after flattening out over the previous 20 years. But in the current cycle, sunspot activity has collapsed. NASAs Science News report
for January 8, 2013 states,

And, global warming not real - temperatures are declining and the Aff's models are
flawed
DAleo 6/8 (Joseph, Certified Consultant Meteorologist and was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, Chief Meteorologist at
Weather Services International Corporation and Senior Editor of Dr. Dewpoint for WSIs popular Intellicast.com web site. expertise include climatology, natural
factors involved in climate change, weather and climate prediction, and North Atlantic Oscillation, WUWT, 8/2/13, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/05/globalwarming-theory-has-failed-all-tests-so-alarmists-return-to-the-97-consensus-hoax/) bcho

(1) Warming not global. It is shown in satellite data to be northern hemisphere only
(2) It is now not warming. Warming (global mean and northern hemisphere) stopped in the 1990s
(3) Models suggest atmosphere should warm 20% faster than surface but surface warming was 33%
faster during the time satellites and surface observations used. This suggests GHG theory wrong, and
surface temperature contaminated.
(4) Temperatures longer term have been modified to enhance warming trend and minimize cyclical
appearance. Station dropout, missing data, change of local siting, urbanization, instrumentation
contaminate the record, producing exaggerating warming. The GAO scolded NOAA for poor compliance
with siting standards.
(5) Those who create the temperature records have been shown in analysis and emails to take steps
to eliminate inconvenient temperature trends like the Medieval Warm Period, the 1940s warm blip

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and cooling since 1998. Steps have included removal of the urban heat island adjustment and as
Wigley suggested in a climategate email, introduce 0.15C of artificial cooling of global ocean
temperatures near 1940.
(6) Forecast models have failed with temperature trends below even the assumed zero emission
control scenarios
(7) Climate models all have a strong hot spot in the mid to high troposphere in the tropical regions. Weather balloons and satellite show no
warming in this region the last 30 years.
(8) Ocean heat content was forecast to increase and was said to be the canary in the coal mine. It too has stalled according to NOAA PMEL. The
warming was to be strongest in the tropics where the models were warming the atmosphere the most. No warming has been shown in the top
300 meters in the tropical Pacific back to the 1950s.
(9) Alarmists had predicted permanent El Nino but the last decade has featured 7 La Nina and just 3 El Nino years. This is related to the PDO and
was predicted by those who look at natural factors.
(10) Alarmists had predicted much lower frequency of the negative modes of the AO and NAO due to warming. The trend has been the
opposite with a record negative AO/NAO in 2009/10
(11) Alarmists predicted an increase in hurricane frequency and strength globally but the global activity had diminished after 2005 to a 30+ year
low. The U.S. has gone seven consecutive years without a landfalling major hurricane, the longest stretch since the 1860s
(12) Alarmists have predicted a significant increase in heat records but despite heat last two summers, the 1930s to 1950s still greatly
dominated the heat records. Even in Texas at the center of the 2011 heat wave, the long term (since 1895) trends in both temperature and
precipitation are flat. And when stations with over 80 years of temperature data were considered, the number of heat records last July were
not extraordinary relative to past hot summers.
(13) Extremes of rainfall and drought were predicted to increase but except during periods of strong El Nino and La Nina, no trends are seen
(14) Alarmists indicated winter would become warmer and short. The last 15 years has seen a decline in winter temperatures in all regions. In
places winter have been the coldest and longest in decades and even centuries.
(15) Alarmists had indicated snow would become increasingly rare in middle latitudes especially in the big cities where warming would be
greatest. All time snow records were set in virtually all the major cities and northern hemisphere snow coverage in winter has increased with 4
of the top 5 years since 2007/08. Also among the east coast high impact snowstorms tracked by NOAA (NESIS), 11 of the 46 have occurred since
2009.

(16) Alarmists had indicated a decline of Antarctic ice due to warming. The upward trends since 1979
continues.
(17) Alarmists had indicated Greenland and arctic ice melt would accelerate. The arctic ice tracks with the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation and the IARC shows the ice cover was similarly reduced in the 1950s when the Atlantic was last in a similar warm
mode. In Greenland, the warmth of the 1930s and 1940s still dominates the records and longer term temperatures have
declined.

And, you are wrong - there is a growing consensus of scientists that say warming is not
happening - computer models prove no rise in temperature
Allegre, et. al. 2012 [Claude - former director of the Institute for the Study of Earth @ University of
Paris, J. Scott Armstrong, cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of
Forecasting; Jan Breslow, head of the Laboratory of Biochemical Genetics and Metabolism, Rockefeller
University; Roger Cohen, fellow, American Physical Society; Edward David, member, National Academy
of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences; William Happer, professor of physics, Princeton;
Michael Kelly, professor of technology, University of Cambridge, U.K.; William Kininmonth, former head
of climate research at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Richard Lindzen, professor of atmospheric
sciences, MIT; James McGrath, professor of chemistry, Virginia Technical University; Rodney Nichols,
former president and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences; Burt Rutan, aerospace engineer,
designer of Voyager and SpaceShipOne; Harrison H. Schmitt, Apollo 17 astronaut and former U.S.
senator; Nir Shaviv, professor of astrophysics, Hebrew University, Jerusalem; Henk Tennekes, former
director, Royal Dutch Meteorological Service; Antonio Zichichi, president of the World Federation of
Scientists, Geneva, "No need to panic about global warming", WALL STREET JOURNAL,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366.html]
A candidate for public office in any contemporary democracy may have to consider what, if anything, to do about "global warming." Candidates
should understand that the oft-repeated claim that nearly all scientists demand that something draMatic be done to stop global warming is not

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true. In fact, a

large and growing number of distinguished scientists and engineers do not agree that
drastic actions on global warming are needed.
In September, Nobel Prize-winning physicist Ivar Giaever, a supporter of President Obama in the last election, publicly
resigned from the American Physical Society (APS) with a letter that begins: "I did not renew [my
membership] because I cannot live with the [APS policy] statement: 'The evidence is incontrovertible:
Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth's physical and ecological systems,
social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.' In the APS it is
OK to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time and how a multi-universe behaves, but the evidence of global warming is
incontrovertible?"
In spite of a multidecade international campaign to enforce the message that increasing amounts of the "pollutant" carbon dioxide will destroy
civilization, large

numbers of scientists, many very prominent, share the opinions of Dr. Giaever. And the
number of scientific "heretics" is growing with each passing year. The reason is a collection of
stubborn scientific facts.
Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is the lack of global warming for well over 10 years now. This is known
to the warming establishment, as one can see from the 2009 "Climategate" email of climate scientist Kevin Trenberth: "The fact is that we can't
account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't." But the warming is only missing if one believes computer
models where so-called feedbacks involving water vapor and clouds greatly amplify the small effect of CO2.

The lack of warming for more than a decadeindeed, the smaller-than-predicted warming over the
22 years since the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began issuing projectionssuggests that
computer models have greatly exaggerated how much warming additional CO2 can cause. Faced with this
embarrassment, those promoting alarm have shifted their drumbeat from warming to weather extremes, to enable anything unusual that
happens in our chaotic climate to be ascribed to CO2.

And, treat the Aff's evidence with skepticism - alarmist warming research yields more
profits and grants for their authors
Allegre, et. al. 2012 [Claude - former director of the Institute for the Study of Earth @ University of
Paris, J. Scott Armstrong, cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of
Forecasting; Jan Breslow, head of the Laboratory of Biochemical Genetics and Metabolism, Rockefeller
University; Roger Cohen, fellow, American Physical Society; Edward David, member, National Academy
of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences; William Happer, professor of physics, Princeton;
Michael Kelly, professor of technology, University of Cambridge, U.K.; William Kininmonth, former head
of climate research at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Richard Lindzen, professor of atmospheric
sciences, MIT; James McGrath, professor of chemistry, Virginia Technical University; Rodney Nichols,
former president and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences; Burt Rutan, aerospace engineer,
designer of Voyager and SpaceShipOne; Harrison H. Schmitt, Apollo 17 astronaut and former U.S.
senator; Nir Shaviv, professor of astrophysics, Hebrew University, Jerusalem; Henk Tennekes, former
director, Royal Dutch Meteorological Service; Antonio Zichichi, president of the World Federation of
Scientists, Geneva, "No need to panic about global warming", WALL STREET JOURNAL,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366.html]
Alarmism over climate is of great benefit to many, providing government funding for academic
research and a reason for government bureaucracies to grow. Alarmism also offers an excuse for
governments to raise taxes, taxpayer-funded subsidies for businesses that understand how to work
the political system, and a lure for big donations to charitable foundations promising to save the
planet. Lysenko and his team lived very well, and they fiercely defended their dogma and the privileges it brought them.
Speaking for many scientists and engineers who have looked carefully and independently at the science of climate, we have a message to any
candidate for public office: There

is no compelling scientific argument for drastic action to "decarbonize" the

world's economy. Even if one accepts the inflated climate forecasts of the IPCC, aggressive
greenhouse-gas control policies are not justified economically.

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And, long timeframe before any devastating impacts of warming

Lean 13 (Geoffrey, Geoffrey Lean pioneered the coverage of green issues long before they became fashionable and has won Scoop of
the Year in the British Press Awards and the Martha Gelhorn Award for investigative journalism,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthcomment/geoffrey-lean/) bcho
The research, moreover, comes at a time when many experts are beginning to despair that warming can be prevented from running out of
control. Six weeks ago, for example, Prof Sir Robert Watson the deeply respected former chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) said he believed the world had now missed its chance to keep the average rise in global temperature to less than 2C the level
at which dangerous effects are thought inevitable. But if the new research is right, it might be held below this ominous threshold after all, if
determined worldwide action is taken.

Prediction, as they say, is tough, especially when its about the future and thats especially true when it
comes to the climate, whose complexity we only partially understand. It is, as we all know, naturally immensely variable. And the effect
of human intervention is subject to long timelags: it will be decades, even centuries, before the full
consequences of todays emissions of carbon dioxide become clear.

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Warming Adv - Exts #1 - Not anthropogenic

Jury still out- no conclusive proof that warming is anthropogenic
Lupo 2012 (Anthony, PhD, Atmospheric Science department chair and professor, Michigan University,
http://www.napsnet.com/pdf_archive/34/50144.pdf)
(NAPSA)One of the fundamental tenets of our justice system is one is innocent until proven guilty . While
that doesnt apply to scientific discovery, in the global warming debate the prevailing attitude is that human
induced global warming is already a fact of life and it is up to doubters to prove otherwise.
To complete the analogy, Ill add that to date, there is no credible evidence to demonstrate that the climatological
changes weve seen since the mid-1800s are outside the bounds of natural variability inherent in the
earths climate system.
Thus, any impartial jury should not come back with a guilty verdict convicting humanity of forcing recent climatological changes.
Even the most ardent supporters of global warming will not argue this point. Instead, they argue that humans are only partially responsible for
the observed climate change. If one takes a hard look at the science involved, their assertions appear to be groundless.
First, carbon

dioxide is not a pollutant as many claim. Carbon dioxide is good for plant life and is a natural
constituent of the atmosphere. During Earths long history there has been more and less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than we
see today.
Second, they claim that climate is stable and slow to change, and we are accelerating climate change beyond natural variability. That is also not
true.

Climate change is generally a regional phenomenon and not a global one. Regionally, climate has
been shown to change rapidly in the past and will continue to do so in the future. Life on earth will adapt as it
has always done. Life on earth has been shown to thrive when planetary temperatures are warmer as opposed to colder.
Third, they point to recent model projections that have shown that the earth will warm as much as 11 degrees Fahrenheit over the next
century.

One should be careful when looking at model projections. After all, these models are crude
representations of the real atmosphere and are lacking many fundamental processes and interactions
that are inherent in the real atmosphere. The 11 degrees scenario that is thrown around the media as if it were the mainstream
prediction is an extreme scenario.
Most models predict anywhere from a 2 to 6 degree increase over the next century, but even these are problematic given the myriad of
problems associated with using models and interpreting their output.
No one advocates destruction of the environment, and indeed we have an obligation to take care of our environment for future generations. At
the same time, we need to make sound decisions based on scientific facts.

My research leads me to believe that we will not be able to state conclusively that global warming is
or is not occurring for another 30 to 70 years. We simply dont understand the climate system well
enough nor have the data to demonstrate that humanity is having a substantial impact on climate
change.

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Warming Adv - Exts #2 - Temps not increasing

Surface temperatures are not increasing
Booker 08
(Christopher, English journalist and author; founders of the magazine Private Eye, and has contributed to it since then. He has
been a columnist for The Sunday Telegraph since 1990, Telegraph, 8/2/13,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/4029837/Global-warming-Reasons-why-it-might-not-actuallyexist.html)

Temperatures are falling, not rising

As Christopher Booker says in his review of 2008, temperatures have been dropping in a wholly unpredicted way over the past
year. last winter, the northern hemisphere saw its greatest snow cover since 1966, which in the northern US states and Canada
was dubbed the "winter from hell". This winter looks set to be even worse.

The earth was hotter 1,000 years ago

Evidence from all over the world indicates that the earth was hotter 1,000 years ago than it is today.
Research shows that temperatures were higher in what is known as the Mediaeval Warming period than
they were in the 1990s.
The earth's surface temperature is not at record levels
According to Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis of surface air temperature
measurements, the meteorological December 2007 to November 2008 was the coolest year since 2000.
Their data has also shown that the hottest decade of the 20th century was not the 1990s but the 1930s.
Ice is not disappearing
Arctic website Crysophere Today reported that Arctic ice volume was 500,000 sq km greater than this time last year.
Additionally, Antarctic sea-ice this year reached its highest level since satellite records began in 1979. Polar bear numbers are
also at record levels.
Himalayan glaciers
A report by the UN Environment Program this year claimed that the cause of melting glaciers in the Himalayas was not global
warming but the local warming effect of a vast "atmospheric brown cloud" over that region, made up of soot particles from
Asia's dramatically increased burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

Temperatures are still dropping

Nasa satellite readings on global temperatures from the university of Alabama show that August was the
fourth month this year when temperatures fell below their 30-year average, ie since satellite records
began. November 2008 in the USA was only the 39th warmest since records began 113 years ago.

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Warming Exts - CO2 Good - Agriculture

CO2 is not a pollutant - rise in CO2 levels leads to rise in plant growth and greater
agricultural yields
Allegre, et. al. 2012 [Claude - former director of the Institute for the Study of Earth @ University of
Paris, J. Scott Armstrong, cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of
Forecasting; Jan Breslow, head of the Laboratory of Biochemical Genetics and Metabolism, Rockefeller
University; Roger Cohen, fellow, American Physical Society; Edward David, member, National Academy
of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences; William Happer, professor of physics, Princeton;
Michael Kelly, professor of technology, University of Cambridge, U.K.; William Kininmonth, former head
of climate research at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Richard Lindzen, professor of atmospheric
sciences, MIT; James McGrath, professor of chemistry, Virginia Technical University; Rodney Nichols,
former president and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences; Burt Rutan, aerospace engineer,
designer of Voyager and SpaceShipOne; Harrison H. Schmitt, Apollo 17 astronaut and former U.S.
senator; Nir Shaviv, professor of astrophysics, Hebrew University, Jerusalem; Henk Tennekes, former
director, Royal Dutch Meteorological Service; Antonio Zichichi, president of the World Federation of
Scientists, Geneva, "No need to panic about global warming", WALL STREET JOURNAL,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366.html]
The fact is that CO2 is not a pollutant. CO2 is a colorless and odorless gas, exhaled at high concentrations by each of us, and a key
component of the biosphere's life cycle. Plants do so much better with more CO2 that greenhouse
operators often increase the CO2 concentrations by factors of three or four to get better growth. This
is no surprise since plants and animals evolved when CO2 concentrations were about 10 times larger
than they are today. Better plant varieties, chemical fertilizers and agricultural management
contributed to the great increase in agricultural yields of the past century, but part of the increase
almost certainly came from additional CO2 in the atmosphere.

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***Agriculture

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Agriculture Advantage Frontline

First, Ag production high now mechanization
McConnell 12 (Kathryn, is a staff writer at IIP Digital, Modern Agricultural Production Continues to
Increase Yields, April 5th, 2012
http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/article/2012/04/201204053331.html#ixzz2akVShede, SD)
Washington Since the 1980s, large-scale conventional crop farming has increasingly produced higher yields
while using less fertilizer and water, and fewer chemical pesticides, says American political scientist Robert
Paarlberg. And that is good for the environment, he said. With conventional agriculture based on science, the land footprint of
agriculture is getting smaller, Paarlberg said at a March 15 discussion about The Culture War Over Food and Farming at Johns Hopkins
University's School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. He added that increased yields are needed to feed the worlds growing
population. Paarlberg said conventional

farming today is dramatically different from conventional farming

in the 1960s. One big factor affecting higher yields was the commercial introduction in 1996 of diseaseand insect-resistant seeds improved through biotechnology, also known as genetically modified seeds. Biotechmodified maize, for instance, protects against infections from the corn borer insect without requiring the use of chemical spreads, he said.
Resistant soybeans have replaced multiple sprayings of toxic herbicides and pesticides. And because biotech crops resist insects and weeds, less
mechanical tillage is needed, reducing the amount of diesel fuel exhaust going into the air and conserving soil. The other more recent factor
affecting conventional agriculture has been the use

of global positioning systems (GPS) on farm machinery that tell

farmers exactly what part of the field needs to be watered and what part does not, what part is low on nitrogen and what part is not,
Paarlberg said. That prevents excessive applications of fertilizer and reduces toxic runoff into streams. GPS-equipped tractors also allow farmers
to insert fertilizer into the soil precisely where seeds have been planted. Today,

farm equipment is much more precise,

Paarlberg said. The benefits of biotech seeds and other modern farming techniques such as targeted
irrigation are widespread. Between 1990 and 2004 in the 34 countries that belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD), the use of water for irrigation decreased 9 percent, excess nitrogen from overapplications of fertilizer decreased 17
percent, pesticide use went down 5 percent and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture dropped 3 percent. Because tractors are applying
fewer pesticides and fertilizer, agricultural energy use is increasing at only one-sixth the rate of energy use in other areas of the economy,
Paarlberg said.

Second, alternate causality to food security - climate change

Wheeler 13 (Tim is Professor of Crop Science at the University of Reading and Deputy Chief Scientific
Adviser for the UK Department for International Development, World Food Security More Vulnerable
than ever to Climate Change, 8-2-13, SD)
A new study, published today (2 August) in Science, has called for a 'climate-smart food system' to prevent
climate change from slowing progress in eradicating global hunger. The researchers carried out a review of key
scientific papers on food security and climate change since 1990. It confirmed a robust and coherent global pattern of
climate change impacts on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The
review highlighted improvements in agricultural technologies, such as more productive and climate-resilient crop varieties, are important to
counter this threat, but are unlikely to be sufficient on their own. Wider

changes in food trade and stocks, and nutrition

and social policy options are also critical. The last few decades have witnessed a substantial decline in the number of hungry
people worldwide. However, since 2007, progress has slowed and world food supply and demand have been
precariously balanced - climate change threatens to tip this balance, most dramatically in the poorer areas of the
world. Professor Tim Wheeler, from the University of Reading's Walker Institute for Climate System Research and lead author of the review,
said: "The

food price spike of 2008 highlights the increasing vulnerability of the global food system to
shocks, such as extreme weathe r and economic volatility. A step change is needed in efforts to create a
'climate-smart food system' that can better withstand whatever climate throws at us. This should include

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development of drought- and heat-tolerant crops or new tillage techniques that reduce release of
carbon from soils, but we need to go further and ensure trade, investment and development policies
all have 'climate-smart' food as a central goal." Warmer temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and more extreme
weather under climate change are expected to affect food and fodder production, change patterns of pest and diseases of crops and animals
and impact on food supplies. Countries where these impacts are expected to be negative are also those where hunger is most prevalent now.

Extreme weather, such as floods, drought and heatwaves, contributes to short term food price spikes
and longer term climate change is likely to be an important factor in future price trends. Volatile food prices
are a particular concern to the poor, who often spend a high proportion of their income on food.

And, alternate causes to food prices - drought

AG Professional 8-1( Grocers, Fast Food Shops Blame Ethanol for Higher Food Prices 8-1-13
http://www.agprofessional.com/news/Grocers-fast-food-shops-blame-ethanol-for-higher-food-prices217793201.html?ref=201)
Some fast food companies say the increased demand for corn brought on by ethanol plants is the reason menu
prices, namely beef, pork and chicken, are higher. "It's harder every day to offer great value because our
costs are skyrocketing," Lisa Ingram, president of White Castle, recently said in Washington. "In fact, since the RFS became law our
cost for beef has increased by forty-seven percent." Fox News reports the sentiment is mimicked by Wendys franchise
owners. Ron Ross, owner of four Wendys restaurants in southern California, says an industry study found higher costs, supposedly impacted by
the RFS, have taken $25,000 in revenues from each of his stores. Because competition limits how much of the costs can be transitioned to
customers, Ross says hes had to cut back on employee bonuses and delay new store plans. Higher

beef prices cant be blamed

solely on increased corn demand created by ethanol plants. Two consecutive years of drought forced
cattle herds to shrink to a 60-year low, which pushed wholesale beef prices to record highs earlier this
summer.

And, no food collapse - global food reserves

Harkness 11 (Jim, as a B.A. in Asian studies from the University of Wisconsin and a master's in development
sociology from Cornell University and has written and spoken frequently on China and sustainable development,
and has served as an advisor to the World Bank and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Food
security and national security: Learning from Chinas approach to managing its wheat supplies, IATP, February
th
28 , 2011, http://www.iatp.org/documents/food-security-and-national-security-learning-fromchina%E2%80%99s-approach-to-managing-its-wheat-s#sthash.7krfIN0g.dpuf, SD)
Although China

maintains vast reserves of grain, and other foods like pork and edible oils, the United States and
most other countries have abandoned this wise approach. Thirty years of neoliberal market
fundamentalism has treated agriculture and food like other consumer productsas opposed to a
necessity of life. Private big grain traders never liked reserves, and their greed was rationalized by efficient markets hypothesis, which
claimed that reserves were inefficient and distorted markets. U.S. farm bills have abandoned reserves and other tools to manage supply.
International financial institutions often pressure countries around the world to sell off their reserves and reduce support for their own
farmers. This free-market system left food-importing countries without a lifeline when global prices spiked in 2007. In the following year the
ranks of the worlds hungry swelled by another 100 million. Fortunately,

the idea of grain reserves is gaining traction

again. It will be among the topics of discussion at the G-20 summit in France in May as a response to
rising global hunger. West African countries are considering the establishment of regional reserves,
Asian countries are starting a rice reserve, and the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are exploring options for a collective reserve.
Thus far, the United States has resisted these proposals despite the lessons of the last food crisis. But that could change.
Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported the lowest stocks for corn in the last 15 years, putting us one severe weather
event away from a major corn shortage. And

major agricultural exporting countries like Russia, Argentina and Australia have
all experienced major weather events that have limited crop production and further tightened global grain supplies.

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Agriculture Adv - Exts #1 - Ag production high now

Ag production will continue to rise
FAO 13 (OECD-FAO expect slower global agricultural production growth, June 6th, Food and
Agriculture Organization of the UN, SD)
6 June 2013, Beijing - Global agricultural production is expected to grow 1.5 percent a year on average over
the coming decade, compared with annual growth of 2.1 percent between 2003 and 2012, according to a new report published by the
OECD and FAO today. Limited expansion of agricultural land, rising production costs, growing resource constraints and increasing
environmental pressures are the main factors behind the trend. But the

report argues that farm commodity supply should

keep pace with global demand. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 expects prices to
remain above historical averages over the medium term for both crop and livestock products due to a combination of slower
production growth and stronger demand, including for biofuels. The report says agriculture has been turned into an
increasingly market-driven sector, as opposed to policy-driven as it was in the past, thus offering developing
countries important investment opportunities and economic benefits, given their growing food
demand, potential for production expansion and comparative advantages in many global markets.

High production fertilizer, tech

Fuglie 07 (Keith , is Chief of the Resource, Environmental, and Science Policy Branch in the Resource and Rural Economics Division,
Productivity Growth in US agriculture, USDA, September 2007, http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/201254/eb9_1_.pdf, SD)
There are many

reasons for the impressive improvements in U.S. agriculture in the late 20th century. The
greater use of agricultural inputs, such as more fertilizer and more machinery per acre of land, was one
reason. But yield was also increased through the development of new technology, which made inputs more effective
or allowed inputs to be combined in new and better ways. ERS has developed the total factor productivity (TFP) statistical series, which isolates
the effect of changes in technology and related factors from those effects that result from changes in inputs on the growth of agricultural
output (see box on p.6, Explaining Total Factor Productivity). In the long run,

growth in TFP is the primary source of new

wealth creation. The trend in TFP, therefore, is an important indicator of the longrun performance of
the agricultural sector in the United States. Figure 1 shows changes in total output (an aggregation of crop and livestock
commodities and related services), total inputs (an aggregation of land, labor, capital, and intermediate inputs like fertilizer, feed and seed),
and TFP from 1948 to 2004. These changes are measured as indices with 1948 set equal to 100. For output, the index value reached 266 in
2004, meaning that total agricultural production in 2004 was 2.66 times higher than in 1948. Over the same period, aggregate input

use
in agriculture actually decreased slightly. Although the use of some inputs like fertilizer and machinery
increased, these increases were more than offset by reductions in cropland and especially the amount
of labor employed in agriculture. Overall, the amount of crop and animal output produced per unit of
(aggregate) input, which is measured by TFP, increased 2.70 times. As figure 1 shows, agricultural productivity
growth was strong in each decade, allowing output to grow with little or no increase in inputs throughout the 1948-2004 period.

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Agriculture Adv - Exts #2 - Alternate Causes to Food Security

Agriculture is sensitive to climate change - leads to a change in food availability
Wheeler and Braun 13 (Tim is Professor of Crop Science at the University of Reading and Deputy
Chief Scientific Adviser for the UK Department for International Development, Climate Change Impacts
on Global Food Security, Science Vol. 341 no. 6145 pp. 508-513, August 2 2013,
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6145/508.full, SD)
Thus, climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures; changes to rainfall patterns; and increased frequency,
and perhaps severity, of extreme weather. By the end of this century, the global mean temperature could be 1.8 to
4.0C warmer than at the end of the previous century (15). Warming will not be even across the globe
and is likely to be greater over land compared with oceans, toward the poles, and in arid regions (15).
Recent weather records also show that land surface temperatures may be increasing more slowly than expected from climate models,
potentially because of a higher level of absorption of CO2 by deep oceans (19). Sea-level rises will increase the risk of flooding of agricultural
land in coastal regions. Changes in rainfall patterns, particularly over tropical land, are less certain, partly because of the inability of the current
models to represent the global hydrological cycle accurately (20). In general, it is expected that the summer Asian monsoon rainfall may
increase, while parts of North and southern Africa could become drier (15). How

will these regional changes in climate

affect food security? Agriculture is inherently sensitive to climate variability and change, as a result of
either natural causes or human activities. Climate change caused by emissions of greenhouse gases is
expected to directly influence crop production systems for food, feed, or fodder; to affect livestock health; and
to alter the pattern and balance of trade of food and food products. These impacts will vary with the degree of warming and associated
changes in rainfall patterns, as well as from one location to another. Climate

change could have a range of direct and

indirect effects on all four dimensions of food security. How is the evidence base distributed across the dimensions of
food security? We undertook a bibliographic analysis of peer-reviewed journal papers on food security and climate change since the publication
of the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 1990 (21). That report was ground-breaking for the climate science that
it reviewed, but agriculture was entirely absent. Our analysis shows that a small peak of papers with climate change and food security in the
title or abstract were published in the mid-1990s, followed by a lull then a sharp increase in papers published with these terms from 2008
onward. The distribution of the evidence across the four dimensions of food security is, however, heavily skewed toward food availability
within 70% of the publications. Access, utilization, and stability dimensions of food security are represented by only 11.9, 13.9, and 4.2% of the
total publications on food security and climate change, respectively.

Climate change could transform the ability to

produce certain products at regional and international levels. If it turns out, for example, that the geography of
biomass production shifts at a global scale (38), this will have production implications for all bio-based productswhether food, feed, fuels, or
fiberand will impinge on food trade flows, with implications for (farm) incomes and access to food (39). Similar changes have been observed
in the geography and relative productivity of certain ocean species, such as shifts between anchovy and sardine regimes in the Pacific Ocean
(40).

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Agriculture Adv - Exts #3 - Alt Causes to Food Prices

Alt cause weather conditions
GBN 7-30( World Food Prices Fall But Remain High 7-30-13 Ghana Business News
http://www.ghanabusinessnews.com/2013/07/30/world-food-prices-fall-but-remain-high-world-bank/)
World food prices have dropped in the third consecutive quarters, says the World Bank July 25, 2013. According to
the Banks Food Price Watch, global food prices continued to fall between February and June 2013, a trend observed since the recent all-time
peak in August 2012. But it noted that food prices were only 12% below the August peak. The

World Banks monitoring showed

that higher production, declining imports and lower demand generally pushed export prices down
although international markets continue to be tight for maize. It said the current prices of wheat reflect expectations
that world production will rebound this year from last years declines as rice prices continued to decrease moderately. Domestic prices,
meanwhile, generally followed seasonal trends but wide variations continued. Where prices rose
between February and June 2013, the Bank attributed it to a combination of factors including bad
weather, dwindling supplies, currency devaluations and public procurement policies. Looking ahead, the World Bank said uncertainty in the
international market remains. Recently unfavourable weather conditions in northern and central Europe, the
Russian Federation and China may affect the prospects of a rebound in the world wheat production, it
said and the current situation in Egypt may also impact international markets of wheat, given Egypt is the worlds top wheat importer.