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In association with

Southern Manila
West Growth Area
2014

Contents
Cuervo Far East, Inc.
Economic Overview
Real Estate Industry Overview
Southern Greater Manila
Southern Manila West Growth Area (WGA)
Selected High-end Residential Subdivisions
Southern Manila WGA SWOT Analysis
Zonal Values
Market Values 2009 and 2014
Projected Land Values 2015 to 2019
Conclusion
References
Contact Details
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Cuervo Far East, Inc.


Founded in Manila in October1993
A private corporation which is 100% Filipino-Owned
Hands-on management by the majority stock holder (Josemari Cuervo
- President & CEO)
Previous association with Richard Ellis from 1996 to 1998, and with
Cushman & Wakefield from 1999to 2013
Sister company of Cuervo Appraisers, the leading valuation company
in the Philippines for over 32 years.
Head Office located at Makati City with a branch office in Cebu City

- Our mission is to provide the most professional and comprehensive real estate solutions for our
clients by creating, protecting and optimizing value throughout the consultant client relationship -

Cuervo Far East Inc. - Services


Asset Services
Property Management
Project Management
Facilities Management

Research / Consultancy Services

Research and Market Intelligence

Development Consultancy

Corporate Location Strategy

Valuation & Investment Advisory

Transaction Services

Office, Residential, Retail and Industrial Agency

Brokerage

Tenant Strategies and Solutions

Negotiation Services
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Economic Overview
The Philippine economy registered a strong growth of 6.0% for the first half
of 2014.
Inflation for October remained stable at 4.3% which reflects easing
consumer prices.
The country was accorded a ratings upgrade to investment grade status
by top global credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poors, Fitch, and
Moodys Investor and Service making it an attractive destination for
investors.
Various Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects by the government are
expected to spur the growth of the Philippine economy.

Real Estate Industry Overview


The real estate industry is one of the fastest growing sectors of the
economy in recent years.
High demand for office spaces fuelled by the Business Process
Outsourcing (BPO) boom and expansion of international and
multinational corporations.
Manufacturing growth pushed the demand for industrial spaces such as
warehouses and manufacturing plants.
Residential market fuelled by the growing high and middle-class income
earners and as well as the steady increase of remittances from Overseas
Filipino Workers.

Southern Greater Manila

The southern greater Manila


has a great potential for
growth.
Various infrastructure
projects and real estate
developments makes it a
viable alternative to
Makati, Mandaluyong and
Ortigas.
Developments in Muntinlupa
and Sta. Rosa City are at the
forefront of this expansion in
the South.

Southern Manila
West Growth Area (WGA)
The Southern Manila West
Growth Area (WGA) is
expected to grow in terms of
capital values for highend
commercial and residential
developments.

The Southern Manila WGA is


located along the west side
of South Luzon Expressway
which include areas within
Muntinlupa and Las Pinas.
This report will show the
historical and projected land
values of high-end residential
developments within the
Southern Manila WGA.

2014 Current Land Valuations for Selected


High-end Residential Developments
Alabang Hillsborough
PHP30,000 35,000 per sqm
Alabang Hills Village
PHP30,000 35,000 per sqm
Ayala Alabang
PHP50,000 60,000 per sqm
Alabang West
PHP47,000 49,000 per sqm
Ayala Southvale Sonera
PHP30,000 35,000 per sqm
Ayala Southvale Village
PHP30,000 35,000 per sqm

Southern Manila WGA


SWOT Analysis
STRENGTHS
Accessibility
Current land prices are favorable
for investments
Existing road infrastructure
Presence of support services and
facilities
Low risk from geohazards

OPPORTUNITIES
Increase in land values projected
to be around 10% to 15% per year
Businesses are decentralizing from
traditional CBDs
Various development and
infrastructure projects

WEAKNESSES
Perception as too far from the
traditional CBDs Makati, BGC and
Ortigas Center.

THREATS
Various developments in the North
Delay in the implementation of
infrastructure and development
projects.

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SWOT Analysis Strengths


Accessibility

Source: Public-Private Partnership (PPP )website

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SWOT Analysis Strengths


Road Infrastructure - South Luzon Expressway (SLEx)

The South Luzon


Expressway (SLEx) is
a network of two
expressways that
connects Metro
Manila to the
CALABARZON
region.

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SWOT Analysis Strengths


Road Infrastructure - Manila-Cavite Expressway (Cavitex)

The Manila-Cavite
Expressway (CAVITEx)
connects Manila to
Cavite.

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SWOT Analysis Strengths


Road Infrastructure - Daang Hari Road

Daang Hari Road


or Las PinasMuntinlupaLaguna-Cavite Link
Road connects
Metro Manila to
Cavite.

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SWOT Analysis Strengths


Road Infrastructure Cavite-Laguna Expressway (CALAX)

The CaviteLaguna Expressway


(CALAX) is a PPP
project that will
connect CAVITEx
(Kawit) to SLEX
(Mamplasan).

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SWOT Analysis Strengths


Road Infrastructure Muntinlupa-Cavite Expressway (MCX)

The MuntinlupaCavite Expressway


(MCX), formerly
called Daang HariSLEX Link Road, will
connect Daang
Hari to SLEX.
It is scheduled to
open on the first
half of 2015.

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SWOT Analysis Strengths


Low Risk from Geohazards

Source: Dept. Of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), Mines and Geosciences Bureau

- Southern Manila WGA

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SWOT Analysis Strengths


Low Risk from Geohazards

Source: Dept. Of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), Mines and Geosciences Bureau

- Southern Manila WGA

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Zonal Values
ZONAL VALUES MUNTINLUPA
Barangay: Ayala Alabang
Street/Subdivision

Vicinity

Classification

Phases 1, 2A, 3A1, 3A2, 3B1, 3B2,


Residential
3B3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8A, 8B, 9, 10A, 10B,
Regular(RR)
10C, 10D, XI-A, XI-B, XI-C & XII
Lots backing the golf course Phases 4 Residential
&2B
Regular(RR)
Lots along the perimeters of Apitong,
Adelfa, Rosal, Batangas East, South &
Residential
West, Tamarind, Langka, Santiago, &
Regular(RR)
portions of San Juanico, Guava Drive,
Tamarind Drive, San Lorenzo, Mabolo

Ayala Alabang
Village
Ayala Alabang
Village
Ayala Alabang
Village

6th Revision
(2-May-97)

7th Revision
(14-June-14)

18,100

40,000

16,500

60,000

16,000

38,000

PHP per Square Meter

Zonal Values Muntinlupa - Ayala Alabang Village


60,000
60,000

40,000

38,000

40,000
18,100
20,000

16,500

6th Revision
(2-May-97)

16,000
7th Revision
(14-June-14)

Phases 1, 2A, 3A1, 3A2, 3B1, 3B2, 3B3, 4, 5, 6, 7,


Lots
8A,along
8B,Lots
9,the
10A,
backing
perimeters
10B, 10C,
the of
golf
10D,
Apitong,
course
XI-A, XI-B,
Phases
Adelfa,
XI-C4Rosal,
&&2B
XII Batangas East, South & West, Tamarind, Langka, Santiago, &
portions of San Juanico, Guava Drive, Tamarind Drive, San Lorenzo, Mabolo

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Zonal Values
ZONAL VALUES MUNTINLUPA
Barangay: Cupang
Street/Subdivision
Alabang Hills
Village Subd.
Alabang
Hillsborough

Vicinity

Classification

6th Revision
(2-May-97)

7th Revision
(14-June-14)

St. Benedictine

Residential
Regular(RR)

8,000

28,000

Alabang Hills

Residential
Regular(RR)

11,500

28,000

PHP per Square Meter

Zonal Values Muntinlupa


Alabang Hills Village Subd. &
Alabang Hillsborough
28,000

28,000

30,000

7th Revision
(14-June14)

25,000
20,000
15,000

6th Revision
(2-May-97)

11,500
8,000

10,000
5,000
0
Alabang Hills Village Subd.

Alabang Hillsborough

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Market Values 2009 & 2014


Market Values 2009 & 2014
(Php per Sq. M.)
Area
2009
2014
Ayala Alabang Village
30,000 - 32,000
57,000 - 62,000
Alabang Hills Subdivision
14,000 -16,000
38,000 - 40,000
Hillsborough Subdivision
14,000 15,500
38,000 42,000
Ayala Southvale
16,000 -17,500
30,000 35,000

Market Values - 2009 & 2014 (Low Range)

Market Values - 2009 & 2014 (High Range)

57,000
70,000

50,000
40,000

38,000

38,000

2009

30,000

14,000

16,000

2014

0
Alabang Hillsborough
Hills
Subdivision
Subdivision

Ayala
Southvale

Ayala
Alabang
Village

2009

35,000
16,000

20,000
10,000

42,000

32,000

30,000

10,000

Ayala
Alabang
Village

40,000

50,000
40,000

30,000
14,000

62,000

60,000

30,000

20,000

PHP per Square Meter

PHP per Square Meter

60,000

15,500

Alabang Hills Hillsborough


Subdivision
Subdivision

17,500

2014

Ayala
Southvale

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Projected Land Values - 2015 to 2019


Upper Mid-end at 10% increase per annum
Upper Mid-end Residential Lots (10% p.a. increase)
(Php per Sq. M.)
Year
Low
High
2014
30,000
40,000
2015
33,000
44,000
2016
36,300
48,400
2017
39,930
53,240
2018
43,923
58,564
2019
48,315
64,420

Upper Mid-end Residential Lots (10% annual increase)

PHP per Square Meter

70,000

64,420
58,564

60,000

53,240
48,315

48,400

50,000

44,000
40,000

40,000
30,000

43,923
36,300

39,930

33,000
Low

30,000

High
20,000
10,000
0
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Year
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Projected Land Values - 2015 to 2019


Upper Mid-end at 15% increase per annum
Upper Mid-end Residential Lots (15% p.a. increase)
(Php per Sq. M.)
Year
Low
High
2014
30,000
40,000
2015
34,500
46,000
2016
39,675
52,900
2017
45,626
60,835
2018
52,470
69,960
2019
60,341
80,454

Upper Mid-end Residential Lots (15% annual increase)


PHP per Square Meter

90,000

80,454

80,000

69,960

70,000

60,835

60,000
50,000
40,000

52,900
40,000
30,000

46,000

60,341
52,470

45,626
39,675

34,500

Low
High

30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Year
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Projected Land Values - 2015 to 2019


High-end at 10% increase per annum
High-end Residential Lots (10% p.a. increase)
(Php per Sq. M.)
Year
Low
High
2014
50,000
60,000
2015
55,000
66,000
2016
60,500
72,600
2017
66,550
79,860
2018
73,205
87,846
2019
80,526
96,631

High-end Residential Lots (10% annual increase)


96,631

PHP per Square Meter

100,000

87,846

90,000

60,000

73,205

72,600

80,000
70,000

80,526

79,860
66,000
60,000
50,000

60,500

66,550

55,000

50,000

Low

40,000

High

30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Year
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Projected Land Values - 2015 to 2019


High-end at 15% increase per annum
High-end Residential Lots (15% p.a. increase)
(Php per Sq. M.)
Year
Low
High
2014
50,000
60,000
2015
57,500
69,000
2016
66,125
79,350
2017
76,044
91,253
2018
87,450
104,940
2019
100,568
120,681

High-end Residential Lots (15% annual increase)


PHP per Square Meter

140,000

120,681
104,940

120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000

100,568

91,253 87,450
79,350 76,044
69,000 66,125
60,000
57,500
50,000

Low
High

40,000
20,000
0
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Year
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Conclusion
The Southern Manila West Growth Area (WGA) residential land values are projected to
steadily appreciate in the near-term.
High-end Residential Land values, are seen to increase from 10% to 15%
annually, provided all infrastructure projects and other developments are completed
on time.
Smaller lot cuts will have a higher price per square meter compared to larger lot cuts.
The profile of the market has matured. Buyers take into consideration factors such as
geohazards, accessibility, and availability of support services when making an
investment decision.
An expected increase in Zonal Values in the near term will affect the cost of sales for
land which will result in higher asking prices.
Due to the lack of available supply in this sector, we believe that demand forces in
the market will greatly affect capital values in the next five years.
We will most likely see capital values breaching Php100,000 per sq.m. by 2019.
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References
Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) website
Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH)
Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR)
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology(PHIVOLCS)
Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR)
Wikimapia
Cuervo Appraisers, Inc.

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Contact Details

Name
Landline
Mobile
E-mail

: Jose Maria C. Fernandez-Cuervo


: (+63 2) 750 6608
: (+63) 917 838 8088
: josemari_cuervo@cuervo.com.ph

Mailing Address:
5th Floor S&L Building, 101 Esteban St. cor. Dela Rosa St., Legaspi
Village, 1229 Makati City, Philippines

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