Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 20

HDFC Mutual Fund

Economic Update – India Inflation


(For the week ended April 25, 2009)

1
Table of Contents

India Inflation

India Bond Yields and Spreads

India Currency

Disclaimer

2
India Inflation
For the week ended April 25, 2009

3
India Inflation
(For the week ended April 25, 2009)

Inflation rose 0.70% in the week to April 25, 2009 from a year earlier, close to
the lowest rate on record*, after gaining 0.57% in the previous week.
Economists had expected an increase of 0.63%**. Inflation has fallen from a 16
year high of 12.91% in the week ended August 2, 2008

Primary Articles and Manufactured Products rose 0.20% and 0.30% respectively
while the Fuel, Power and Light Segment was unchanged on a week on week
basis - refer to slide 5 for details

Within the main groups, food products (1.34%), food articles (1.22%) and
Textiles (0.51%) were the largest contributors to overall inflation

Basic Metals, Alloys (-1.57%), Mineral Oils (-1.05%) and Electricity (-0.17%)
were the largest detractors from overall inflation (week on week) – refer to table
on slide 6 for details

Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg News


CSO – Central Statistical Organisation
**Bloomberg Survey
*According to data available since 1990 on Bloomberg

4
India Inflation
Yearly and Weekly Percentage Changes
25-Apr-09 18-Apr-09 11-Apr-09 4-Apr-09 28-Mar-09 28-Feb-09
YoY% (P) YoY% (F)
All Commodities 0.70 0.57 0.26 0.18 0.26 2.47
Primary Articles 5.97 5.68 4.36 4.47 3.46 5.55
Fuel, Power, Light -5.83 -5.83 -5.87 -5.87 -6.11 -4.90
Manufactured Products 1.05 0.95 0.90 0.75 1.42 4.12
Level (F)
All Commodities 230.7 230.2 228.8 228.2 227.3 227.8
Primary Articles 253.7 253.2 248.9 247.6 245.0 247.4
Fuel, Power, Light 323.0 323.0 322.6 322.6 320.9 324.3
Manufactured Products 202.2 201.6 200.9 200.5 200.3 199.5

25-Apr-09 18-Apr-09 11-Apr-09 4-Apr-09 28-Mar-09 21-Mar-09


Week on Week % (P)
All Commodities 0.22 0.61 0.26 0.40 0.00 0.13
Primary Articles 0.20 1.73 0.53 1.06 -0.28 0.04
Fuel, Power, Light 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.53 0.00 -0.03
Manufactured Products 0.30 0.35 0.20 0.10 0.15 0.20

Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India


Note: Figures are not seasonally adjusted and are based at 1993-94=100.
Weekly and yearly percentage changes are calculated by Bloomberg News.
(P) Represents provisional figures released with a two week lag.
(F) Represents final figures released with an eight week lag.
5
India Inflation
Percentage Contribution
Group Weights 25-A pr-09 18-A pr-09 11-A pr-09 4-A pr-09 28-Mar-09
A ll Commodities 100.00 0.70 0.57 0.26 0.18 0.26
Primary A rticles 22.03 1.37 1.31 1.00 1.02 0.80
Food Articles 15.40 1.22 1.15 1.10 1.13 0.98
Non - Food Articles 6.14 0.12 0.12 0.08 0.06 -0.01
Minerals 0.48 0.05 0.05 -0.17 -0.17 -0.17
Fuel, Power, Light 14.23 -1.24 -1.24 -1.25 -1.26 -1.31
Coal Mining 1.75 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02
Mineral Oils 6.99 -1.05 -1.05 -1.06 -1.06 -1.12
Electricity 5.48 -0.17 -0.17 -0.18 -0.18 -0.18
Manufactured Products 63.75 0.58 0.53 0.50 0.42 0.79
Food Products 11.54 1.34 1.16 0.96 0.87 0.78
Beverage & Tobacco 1.34 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.15
Textiles 9.80 0.51 0.60 0.62 0.55 0.55
Wood 0.17 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Paper 2.04 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.09
Leather 1.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
Rubber & Plastic 2.39 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Chemicals 11.93 -0.01 0.02 0.09 0.09 0.16
Non-Metallic Mineral Products 2.52 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.05
Basic Metals, Alloys 8.34 -1.57 -1.58 -1.51 -1.51 -1.31
Machinery & Tools 8.36 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.17
Transport Equipment / Parts 4.29 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.11

Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India


Note: Figures are not seasonally adjusted and are based at 1993-94=100.
Percentage contributions are calculated by Bloomberg News from weights provided by the Ministry of Commerce and
Industry and may not add up due to rounding.

6
India Inflation
By Group
Group 25-A pr-09 18-A pr-09 11-A pr-09 4-A pr-09 28-Mar-09
A ll Commodities 0.70 0.57 0.26 0.18 0.26
Primary A rticles 5.97 5.68 4.36 4.47 3.46
Food Articles 7.83 7.40 7.07 7.30 6.31
Non - Food Articles 1.89 1.89 1.27 1.02 -0.09
Minerals 3.46 3.46 -12.84 -12.84 -12.84
Fuel, Power, Light -5.83 -5.83 -5.87 -5.87 -6.11
Coal Mining -1.02 -1.02 -1.02 -1.02 -1.02
Mineral Oils -8.22 -8.22 -8.30 -8.28 -8.75
Electricity -2.64 -2.64 -2.64 -2.64 -2.64
Manufactured Products 1.05 0.95 0.90 0.75 1.42
Food Products 13.15 11.38 9.31 8.42 7.51
Beverage & Tobacco 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 9.14
Textiles 9.26 10.99 11.46 9.93 10.02
Wood 10.05 10.05 10.05 10.05 10.05
Paper 4.72 3.76 3.76 3.92 4.88
Leather 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 1.82
Rubber & Plastic 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.44
Chemicals -0.09 0.19 0.85 0.85 1.47
Non-Metallic Mineral Products 1.86 1.86 1.96 1.81 1.91
Basic Metals, Alloys -14.48 -14.50 -13.93 -13.88 -12.24
Machinery & Tools 0.17 0.35 0.76 1.29 2.74
Transport Equipment / Parts 0.75 1.09 1.09 2.03 3.42

Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India


Note: Figures are not seasonally adjusted and are based at 1993-94=100.
Calculations by Bloomberg News.

7
India Inflation
Wholesale Price Index (YoY)
Inflation rose to 0.70% for the week ended April 25, 2009. Inflation for the same period last year stood at 8.27% for the week ended
April 26, 2008.
18.00

16.00

14.00

12.00

10.00

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00
Jan-90
Jul-90
Jan-91
Jul-91
Jan-92
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jul-94
Jan-95
Jul-95
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97
Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Source: Bloomberg

8
India Inflation
Wholesale Price Index – Groups (YoY)
40
38 Prim ary Articles (%) Fuel, Pow er and Light (%) Manufactured Products (%)
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Jan-98

Jul-98

Jan-99

Jul-99

Jan-00

Jul-00

Jan-01

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09
Source: Bloomberg
For the week ended April 25, 2009

9
India Bond Yields
and Spreads
As on May 6, 2009

10
10 Year GOI Bond Yield
(As on May 6, 2009)
The 10 year Govt. bond yield fell 1bp in the last one week to 6.21% on May 6, 2009.
13.00

12.00

11.00

10.00

9.00

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00
Nov-98
Mar-99
Jul-99

Nov-99
Mar-00
Jul-00
Nov-00
Mar-01
Jul-01

Nov-01
Mar-02
Jul-02

Nov-02
Mar-03
Jul-03

Nov-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06

Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Source: Bloomberg.
GOI: Government of India

11
10 Year AAA Corporate &
Government of India Bond Spread
The yield spread narrowed by 1bp to 1.56% (as on May 6, 2009). The relative yield spread* widened by 15bps to 25.15%. The 10yr
AAA yield fell 1bp during the last one week to end at 7.78% as on May 6, 2009.
4.50
Spre ad Ave rage
4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

-0.50
Dec-01

Mar-02

Jun-02

Dec-02

Mar-03

Jun-03

Dec-03

Mar-04

Jun-04

Dec-04

Mar-05

Jun-05

Dec-05

Mar-06

Jun-06

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Dec-08

Mar-09
Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08
Source: Bloomberg
As on May 6, 2009
*Relative Yield Spread is calculated as the ratio of the Yield spread and the 10 Yr Govt. Bond Yield.
Average of the Relative Yield Spread (December 5, 2001 to May 6, 2009) is 16.05%.
Average of the corporate bond spread for the same period is 1.15%.
12
10 and 2 Year GOI Bond Spread
(As on May 6, 2009)
The yield spread widened by 20bps to 1.32% (as on May 6, 2009). The relative yield spread* rose by 496bps to 27.06% (more than
double its long term historical average**). The 2yr Govt. Bond yield fell 21bps during the week to end at 4.89% as on May 6, 2009.
1.75
Spre ad Ave rage
1.50

1.25

1.00

0.75

0.50

0.25

0.00

-0.25

-0.50

-0.75

-1.00
Jan-01

May-01

Jan-02

May-02

Jan-03

May-03

Jan-04

May-04

Jan-05

May-05

Jan-06

May-06

Jan-07

May-07

Jan-08

May-08

Jan-09

May-09
Sep-01

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08
Source: Bloomberg
GOI: Government of India
*Relative Yield Spread is calculated as the ratio of the Yield spread and the 2 Yr Govt. Bond Yield.
**Average of the Relative Yield Spread (January 1, 2001 to May 6, 2009) is 10.73%.
Average of the bond spread for the same period is 0.64%.
13
2 Year AAA Corporate &
Government of India Bond Spread
The yield spread widened by 12bps to 1.66% (as on May 6, 2009). The relative yield spread* widened by 383bps to 33.95% in the
same period. The 2yr AAA yield fell 9bps during the last one week to end at 6.55% as on May 6, 2009.
6.00
Spre ad Average

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00

-1.00
Jul-02

Oct-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Oct-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Oct-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Oct-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09
Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09
Source: Bloomberg
As on May 6, 2009
*Relative Yield Spread is calculated as the ratio of the Yield spread and the 2 Yr Govt. Bond Yield.
Average of the Relative Yield Spread (April 23, 2002 to May 6, 2009) is 17.66%.
Average of the corporate bond spread for the same period is 1.15%.
14
10 – Year Government
(India & United States) Bond Spread
The 10 year spread narrowed 7bps to 3.05% as on May 6, 2009. The relative yield spread* also narrowed by 389bps to 96.54%
during the same period. The US 10 year yield rose 5bps during the week to end at 3.16% as on May 6, 2009.
8.00
Spre ad Ave rage

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00
Nov-98

Mar-99

Jul-99

Nov-99
Mar-00

Jul-00

Nov-00
Mar-01

Jul-01
Nov-01

Mar-02

Jul-02
Nov-02
Mar-03
Jul-03

Nov-03

Mar-04
Jul-04

Nov-04

Mar-05
Jul-05

Nov-05
Mar-06

Jul-06

Nov-06

Mar-07
Jul-07

Nov-07

Mar-08
Jul-08

Nov-08
Mar-09
Source: Bloomberg
As on May 6, 2009
*Relative Yield Spread is calculated as the ratio of the Yield spread and the 10 Yr US Govt. Bond Yield.
Average of the Relative Yield Spread (November 25, 1998 to May 6, 2009) is 76.79%.
Average of the bond spread for the same period is 3.55%.
15
India Currency
As on May 6, 2009

16
India Currency – Last one week
(April 29, 2009 – May 6, 2009)
The INR appreciated by 0.89% against the USD to 49.65 and by 0.42% against the Euro to 66.16 (As on May 6, 2009). It had its
worst performance against the South Korean Won, depreciating by 4.03% and its best performance versus the Japanese Yen,
appreciating by 1.55%*.

Source: Bloomberg
*Performance against the currencies shown in the table above.
Green indicates the INR has depreciated by the amount shown. Red indicates the INR has appreciated by the amount
shown.
INR: Indian Rupee
17
INR VS USD and EUR
(As on May 6, 2009)
53 71
USDINR (LHS) EURINR (RHS) 69
52
67
51
65
50
63
49 61
48 59

47 57
55
46
53
45
51
44 49
43 47

42 45
43
41
41
40
39
39 37
38 35
Jan-98

Mar-99

Feb-00

Jul-00

Jan-01

Jul-01

Dec-01

Jun-02

Nov-02

May-03

Oct-03

Oct-04

Mar-05

Feb-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jun-08

Dec-08
Sep-05
Aug-98

Aug-99

Aug-06
Apr-04

Source: Bloomberg
LHS: Left Hand Side, RHS: Right Hand Side.
INR: Indian Rupee, USD: US Dollar, EU: Euro

18
Disclaimer: This presentation on ‘Economic Update- India Inflation’ is for information purposes only. All opinions, if any
included in this presentation constitutes the views of HDFC Asset Management Company Limited (‘HDFC AMC’) as of this date
and are subject to change without notice. These views alone are not sufficient and should not be used for the development or
implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. All opinions, figures
and estimates included in this presentation are as of the latest available date and are subject to change without notice. The
opinions, figures and other charts, etc. are sourced from publicly available information, other sources like Bloomberg News, The
Ministry of Commerce and Industry, in house research and/or are just internal interpretation/analysis of reports/data sourced
from the aforesaid sources. Neither HDFC Asset Management Company Limited (HDFC AMC), nor any person connected with it,
accepts any liability arising from the use or in respect of anything done in reliance of the contents of this information /data.
While utmost care has been exercised while preparing the presentation, HDFC AMC does not warrant the completeness or
accuracy of the information provided in the presentation and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of
this information. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

Statutory Details: HDFC Mutual Fund has been set up as a trust sponsored by Housing Development Finance Corporation
Limited and Standard Life Investments Limited (liability restricted to their contribution of Rs. 1 lakh each to the corpus) with
HDFC Trustee Company Limited as the Trustee (Trustee under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882) and with HDFC Asset Management
Company Limited as the Investment Manager.

19
Thank You

20

Похожие интересы