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the Curve
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DAVID MICHAEL
Neeraj aGGarWal
DEREK KENNEDY
jOhN WeNsTrup
MICHAEL RMANN
ruBa BOrNO
julia CheN
juliO Bezerra
Contents
PREFACE
INTRODUCTION
14
17
24
APPENDIX 1: METHODOLOGY
27
38
39
prefACe
S
IntroduCtIon
note
1. Throughout this report, we will use technology and IT interchangeably.
54
43
China
82
Australia
71
Turkey
69
60
58
72
65
Netherlands
Mexico
France
63
40
64
64
63
Germany
Japan
59
54
49
63
61
South Africa
UK
Brazil
55
50
54
53
U.S.
40
46
49
Kenya
33
21
22
25
25
Russia
India
0
20
40
60
80
100
% of formal workforce
20
40
60
80
100
% of formal GDP
Sources: russia data from Ministry of economic Development of the russian Federation; includes agriculture and fishing. australia values from
australian Bureau of statistics; includes all industry sectors and agriculture. south africa data from National small Business amendment act and
south african institute of professional accountants. eu values from european Commission, small Business act country fact sheets, represent the
share of gross value added; excludes agriculture, forestry, fishing, education, and health. Other sources include the european Commission, various
national government agencies and data sources, and the associated Chambers of Commerce and industry of india.
Exhibit 2 | Tech Leaders Are Early Adopters of Each New Wave of Technology
Tech laggards (%)
Desktop computer
64
92
97
Internet
48
97
96
Oce productivity
soware
56
93
98
Smartphone
12
43
62
Internet-enabled
communications
52
88
Enterprise resource
planning
30
79
Social-media page
37
64
18
50
Mobile website
12
44
Cloud-based services
100
1
Individual
productivity
and
eciency
2
Global
connectivity
and
communications
Scale
and
exibility
Exhibit 3 | Tech Leaders Outpace Other SMEs in Revenue and Job Growth
Developed-market SMEs
Emerging-market SMEs
+15
+13
28
Revenue
growth
17
4
20
13
+4
+10
Job
growth
12
2
Tech laggards
Tech followers
Tech leaders
12
Percentage points
12
16
Exhibit 4 | Tech Leaders Tend to Grow Well Above the Rate of GDP Growth
Revenue CAGR, 20102012 (%)
30
Leaders
Leaders
25
Leaders
Followers
Leaders
20
Laggards
Followers
15
Followers
Leaders
Laggards
10
Followers
Laggards
5
Laggards
Followers
Laggards
10
15
20
25
30
Brazil
China
India
Germany
U.S.
Exhibit 5 | Tech Leaders Are More Likely to Have Geographically Dispersed Customers
% respondents
100
80
64
60
60
47
40
20
45
41
38
25
22
22
18
11
3
0
Nationwide customers
(outside company's
home region)
International
customers
Nationwide customers
(outside company's
home region)
Developed-market SMEs
Tech laggards
Tech followers
International
customers
Emerging-market SMEs
Tech leaders
no longer need to pay for and maintain technology that they only need during peak periods. Sundar Lakshmanan, an Indian entrepreneur with two startups under his belt, says, I
cant imagine what we would do without
cloud services being available. They allow
startups like us to compete with almost no
capital expenditure.
Many SMEs access cloud-based services on a
variety of devices, including tablets and
smartphones, which enable employees to stay
connected on the run. This mobility and flexibility is especially important in nations with
limited access to broadband. For SMEs in
these countries, mobile devices are often the
only way to go online. Susan Mashibe, founder of TanJet, a private-jet-services company in
Tanzania, plans to use tablets connected to
the cloud so that her field employees can access her companys enterprise-resource-planning (ERP) software without having to go to
an officeand theyll be able to use this software offline as well. This flexibility is especially critical in Tanzania, where Internet access is unreliable and limited.
are more likely to share decision-making authority or invest in someone who understands the needs of the business and the power of technology. More than 30 percent of
technology leaders have a dedicated IT manager or chief technology officer on staff, and
almost 60 percent reported that the CEO
makes technology acquisition decisions in
concert with others rather than alone. Leaders also look to technology vendors for advice
and support. Local partners, for example,
help many SME leaders decide on new technology, integrate it into their operations, and
maintain it.
Exhibit 6 | Tech Leaders in Emerging Markets Are Likely to Have Robust Technological
Capabilities
Tech leaders that use cloud, Internet-enabled
communications, and enterprise-resource-planning tools
%
100
87
77
80
60
57
80
60
40
20
Developed-market SMEs
Emerging-market SMEs
We base these projections on two assumptions. The first is that 15 percent of tech laggards and 30 percent of tech followers become leaders. (In fact, in the three years
covered by our survey, we observed that
nearly 40 percent of followers moved up to
the level of leader; however, we use the estimate of 30 percent in order to be conservative.) The second assumption is that after
making this transition, these companies perform at the same level as the tech leaders in
our study. (See Appendix 1 for our methodology.)
Our economic-impact scenarios are probably
conservative for two reasons besides the assumption that a smaller percentage of followers become leaders. First, revenue and job
growth estimates capture only part of the potential impact. They do not include the enormous number of small businesses that make
up the so-called informal economy in many
developing nationscompanies that the
World Bank describes as operating partially
or fully outside government regulation, taxation, and observation. Second, we limited
our projections to direct job and revenue
growth, giving no consideration to any multiplier effect or to the indirect jobs and revenues that would result from performance improvements.
Every country would benefit if more of its
SMEs became technology leaders, but the
A roAdmAp for
overComInG BArrIers
to teCh AdoptIon
By smes
Exhibit 7 | Data Security and Privacy Matter to SMEs from Developed and
Emerging Economies Alike
% citing privacy or security concerns
80
64
64
58
54
60
48
40
38
20
0
Developed-market SMEs
Tech laggards
Tech followers
Emerging-market SMEs
Tech leaders
a flourishing iT ecosystem
can provide SMEs with muchneeded local support.
Customers have confidence in the cloud
when they have control of their data and can
access and move this information freely. They
need to know that their data are truly private
and inaccessible to hackers and that cloud
providers use of their data is transparent.
Governments need to enact policies that encourage innovation and growth without putting private data at risk. They should protect
users from unauthorized access to proprietary
or private information and ensure that they
have control of their data. An early step in
encouraging all governments to raise data security standards is the Council of Europe
Convention on Cybercrime. This is an international treaty that aims to create a common
policy environment for cybercrime offenses,
to provide the legal powers necessary to effectively investigate and prosecute cybercrime offenses, and to establish methods of
international cooperation that facilitate action at speeds that match those of cybercrime.
Governments should also collaborate with industry to achieve and maintain security certification for cloud vendors as the U.S. government did through the Federal Information
Security Management Act and FedRAMP, a
governmentwide certification program. This
will help remove the perception that the
cloud is not secure and achieve an infrastructure of trust that will enable the uptake
of cloud services. Another way to encourage
Tech leaders
Tech followers
40
34
65
Tech laggards 56
57
60
40
20
20
Dierence in revenue,
female- versus male-led companies (%)
Developed-market SMEs
100
50
50
100
Dierence in revenue,
female- versus male-led companies (%)
Emerging-market SMEs
Tomorrows SME innovators and entrepreneurs will be born in the cloud and ready
to leverage the next wave of technologies.
Already the founders of businesses created in
the past three years are about 1.5 times more
likely than the founders of older businesses
to credit technology for their existence.
Technologys impact on innovation is likely to
increase. Moreover, SMEs will continue to
play a critical role in their nations
economies. Governments that recognize and
appreciate technologys role in starting and
growing SMEs will be the ones that profit the
most from future technology leaders.
AppendIx 1
METHODOLOGY
survey Quotas
To help ensure credibility and comprehensiveness, we set quotas based on company
size and level of technology usage. (For a representative example, see the exhibit below.)
For company size, we set maximums on the
number of respondents from microbusinesses
(those with fewer than 10 employees), small
businesses (10 to 49 employees), and midsize
businesses (50 or more employees).
For technology use, we set quotas on the
maximum number of respondents from busi-
Low-tech
users
Medium-to-hightech users
70
150
150
370
70
150
150
370
70
150
150
370
210
450
450
1,110
Company size
Total
Total
Weighting
Respondents were not weighted. But an analysis of growth rates adjusted by industry
yielded similar trends in growth rates for the
different types of technology users.
Because the definition of SME varies by country, we did not adjust our results by workforce
size, in order to mirror the demographic profile of each countrys population of micro,
small, and midsize businesses.
Revenue and Job Growth
For growth data, each respondents level of
technology usage was based on the
technologies the company used in 2010.
Company size was based on the number of
employees in 2010. The revenue growth
figure was based on self-reported data for
fiscal years 2010 and 2012. Job growth was
based on self-reported data for 2010 and
2013. We reviewed the revenue and job
growth data and removed extreme outliers,
typographical errors, and false responses
from the data set.
Technology spending figures are based on
self-reported spending over the three-year
period from 2010 through 2012. We screened
these technology-spending figures for extreme outliers, typographical errors, and
false responses.
The Boston Consulting Group | 25
For this report, we converted revenue and technology spending data into U.S. dollars based on
the average exchange rates for December of the
relevant year. Growth rates are nominal and
were not adjusted for inflation. Growth rates do
not reflect any changes in exchange rates.
Qualitative surveys
We conducted 20 in-depth, hour-long surveys.
Respondents were leaders of SMEs based
around the globe that compete in a variety of
industries. Interviews were conducted by
phone in March and April of 2013.
Macroeconomic Impact Projections
For each country, we projected scenarios of
how the job and revenue increases recorded
in our survey data could translate into a
broader economic impact. This allowed us to
understand SME performance improvement
in the context of the economic and technological conditions of each country. The purpose
of these projections was to provide a sense of
the potential magnitude of the economic impact of SMEs technological advancement.
The projections should not be viewed as predictions or precise valuations.
Broadly speaking, we developed a simple projection model based on the size of the SME
contribution to the economy in terms of both
employment and GDP. This required making
specific assumptions about the SME sector
and technology penetration in each country.
We used secondary research to assess technology penetration among SMEs in order to
estimate the proportion of laggards, followers, and leaders among these companies in
each country. Next, we considered what portion of laggard and follower SMEs would be
likely to adopt technology and become leaders. Finally, we compared the growth rates of
laggards and followers with those of leaders
and projected the difference onto the overall
population of laggards and followers in order
to estimate the financial and employment
contribution of the SME sector.
The sources for the three categories of assumptionsSMEs contribution to the economy, technology penetration, and the movement of SMEs to the technology leadership
positionare as follows.
26 | ahead of the Curve
AppendIx 2
U.S.
GDP ($trillions)
G7 avg.
16
GDP/capita ($thousands)
50
Population (millions)
45
314
Labor force
China
BRICI
95
Brazil
10
5
GDP
India
Enterprises
20
15
49%
107
46%
96
103
G7 average
114
82
80
US
G7
Germany
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
5-year
CAGR:
PCs
Mobile users
Internet users
1%
3%
2%
The Opportunity:
If 15% of laggards and 30% of followers
were to become leaders
12
14
5
3
Laggards
Followers
Leaders
23
Internationally
Nationally
14 3
54
Leaders
Followers
43
Internationally
15
35
20
Laggards
78
88
83
71
59
71
48
46
65
32
46
41
35
21
8
Internet Broad- Desktop Laptop Produc- Mobile Smart Tablet
band
tivity phone phone
Connectivity
Basic support
12
IaaS
Surveyed SMEs Say Technology Affects Their Founding and Their Future
27
Compete against
larger companies
53
18
16
Lower costs
10
Be more protable
Continue to be
in business
Employ higherskilled workers
42
Work better
together
41
14
13
36
20
41
45
41
38
34
% respondents
Leaders
their business
Top reasons:
Run operations
Reach customers
Reach suppliers
Grow quickly
Recruit employees
Are easier
to manage
57
29
Laggards
28
66%
81%
Germany
GDP ($trillions)
G7 avg.
GDP/capita ($thousands)
42
63%
54%
Population (millions)
45
82
107
GVA
Labor force
144
China
G7 average
114
96
BRICI
82
85
Brazil
10
Enterprises
20
99.6%
15
India
80
US
G7
Germany
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
5-year
CAGR:
PCs
Mobile users
Internet users
3%
2%
1%
The Opportunity:
If 15% of laggards and 30% of followers
were to become leaders
14
22
8
Laggards
Followers
Leaders
39 15
Internationally
Nationally
27 9 7
67
Leaders
Followers
53
Internationally
34
50
30 20
Laggards
79
89
90
77
61
72
64
48
48
31
40
39
36
22
7
Internet Broad- Desktop Laptop Produc- Mobile Smart Tablet
band
tivity phone phone
Connectivity
Basic support
15
IaaS
Surveyed SMEs Say Technology Affects Their Founding and Their Future
13
Compete against
larger companies
45
8
23
Continue to be
in business
38
17
Are easier
to manage
32
31
23
35
38
17
25
Run operations
Reach customers
Reach suppliers
Grow quickly
Recruit employees
32
% respondents
Laggards
45
35
Be more protable
13
31
Lower costs
72%
Leaders
Online storage
Rise of social media
Deeper customer relationships
via the Internet
Decline of traditional media
Big data
77%
China
GDP ($trillions)
8.2
18
GDP/capita ($thousands)
6
BRICI avg.
99.7%
82%
13
60%
Population (billions)
1.3
8%
.635
GDP
Labor force
20
15
BRICI average
China
BRICI
Brazil
10
5
Enterprises
SME share, formal
79
India
500
1,000
44
US
G7
27
Germany
84
1,500
2,000
5-year
CAGR:
26
20
PCs
Mobile users
Internet users
9%
8%
13%
The Opportunity:
% increase in revenue (CAGR, 20102012)
26
20
19
Laggards
Followers
Leaders
48 22
Internationally
25
19
Nationally
63
Leaders
Followers
57
Internationally
33
30 13 6
Laggards
79
95
88
81
71
42
53
39
Basic support
72
73
53
42
33
Connectivity
66
36
18
Email
IaaS
Surveyed SMEs Say Technology Affects Their Founding and Their Future
25
Compete against
larger companies
51
20
40
Work better
together
41
Lower costs
48
16
Be more protable
Continue to be
in business
13
13
52
20
64
37
16
44
38
64
% respondents
30
Leaders
their business
Top reasons:
Run operations
Grow quickly
Reach suppliers
Reach customers
Recruit employees
41
Are easier
to manage
23
Laggards
48
50
98%
Online storage
Cloud-based computing
Deeper customer relationships
via the Internet
Big data
Growing mobile usage
97%
India
GDP ($trillions)
2
BRICI avg.
GDP/capita ($thousands)
1
13
Population (billions)
1.2
58%
55%
25%
22%
GDP
.635
Labor force
20
15
BRICI average
China
BRICI
Brazil
10
5
72
India
G7
US
Germany
500
1,000
1,500
84
2,000
5-year
CAGR:
9
PCs
20%
Mobile users
26
8
Internet users
19%
12%
20
The Opportunity:
If 15% of laggards and 30% of followers
were to become leaders
15
14
12
29
26
Laggards
Followers
Leaders
56 25
Internationally
15
35
Nationally
15
68
Leaders
Followers
48
Internationally
17
45
33
Laggards
68
85
77
50
40
Basic support
46
29
Connectivity
59
56
47
43
19
16
30
24
IaaS
Surveyed SMEs say Technology Affects Their Founding and Their Future
32
Continue to be
in business
Employ higherskilled workers
52
24
37
26
48
31
36
41
36
21
56
34
33
Are easier
to manage
33
34
33
45
48
Leaders
Top reasons:
Run operations
Grow quickly
Reach suppliers
Reach customers
Recruit employees
24
% respondents
Laggards
40
31
Lower costs
Be more protable
88%
95%
Brazil
GDP ($trillions)
BRICI avg.
29%
99.6%
13
GDP/capita ($thousands)
Population (millions)
11
199
53%
40%
635
GDP
Labor force
20
15
China
BRICI average
118
BRICI
84
Brazil
10
5
Enterprises
SME share, formal
India
40
US
G7
35
Germany
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
5-year
CAGR:
26
20
PCs
Mobile users
Internet users
9%
8%
10%
The Opportunity:
If 15% of laggards and 30% of followers
were to become leaders
21
30
14
14
Laggards
Followers
Leaders
46
Internationally
17 2
30
17
Nationally
61
Leaders
Followers
36
Internationally
42
17 3
Laggards
77
88
72
84
67
73
71
54
45
62
56
50
39
35
20
Internet Broad- Desktop Laptop Produc- Mobile Smart Tablet
band
tivity phone phone
Connectivity
Basic support
24
IaaS
Surveyed SMEs Say Technology Affects Their Founding and Their Future
Ensure customer
satisfaction
38
Compete against
larger companies
Lower costs
Be more protable
23
15
23
Continue to be
in business
Employ higherskilled workers
44
44
46
33
54
37
19
42
15
55
Leaders
Top reasons:
Reach suppliers
Reach customers
Grow quickly
Run operations
Access nancial capital
21
52
% respondents
Laggards
19
49
26
19
54
87%
95%
Acknowledgments
Ruba Borno
Principal
BCG san Francisco
+1 414 732 8000
borno.ruba@bcg.com
Julia Chen
Principal
BCG Los Angeles
+1 213 621 2772
chen.julia@bcg.com
Julio Bezerra
Principal
BCG so paulo
+55 11 3046 3533
bezerra.julio@bcg.com
John Wenstrup
Partner and Managing Director
BCG seattle
+1 206 538 5000
wenstrup.john@bcg.com
Michael Rmann
Partner and Managing Director
BCG Munich
+49 89 23 17 40
ruessmann.michael@bcg.com
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