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Solution Proyects Informatic

Practical Work 1: CPM and PERT

Example 1: Illustration of the CPM Network

Has organized a project team in Manufacturing Technology (MTI) to design and


develop a slightly different one of the industrial robot company release. The new
robot is called Random Access Mobile Orthogonal Vision (RAMOV). Ramov is
mobile, has visual capacity is multiaxial and is programmable on the plant floor. One
of the most important customers of MTI, a large automaker, plans to replace five
factories in a bank of machines with new robots in their assembly lines. The customer
wants to see in two months a demonstration of the robot, a technical proposal and cost
proposal. The first thing the project team was to list and describe their activities,
determine their order and estimate how long it would take each of the activities. This
information on project activities and events on the table we include below. CPM
prepare a program based on the information in that table.

Activity predecessors Activities


immediate Activity duration (days)
to - 20
b 10
cb8
11 d
and c, d 7
fe6
g d 12
h e 13
i g, h 5

event:
1. The project has started.
2. The RAMOV design has been completed.
3. The prototype units were built.
4. prototype tests have been completed
5. estimates completed materials.
6. The pitch RAMOV design is finished.
7. The technical proposal and cost estimates for labor are completed.
8. RAMOV units are shown and delivered the proposal to the client. The project has
been completed.

solution:

Note that both the activity and the activity c d are immediate predecessors of the
activity e. To d show that the activity should be completed before the start of the
terminal and, using a false activity. A dummy activity does not involve work or time;
simply shows the precedence relationship, ie, the order of activities.

Example 2: Analysis of the trajectories.

Now that in Example 1 the network diagram for the project was developed RAMOV,
scan paths through the network. Determine which of them is the critical path and how
much is expected to take the completion of the project.

solution:

1. First, write the duration of each activity under your arrow. For example a = 20 is
written to the arrow below:

2. Next, identify the paths and calculate the length of each path:

Duration paths paths (days)


a-b-c-e-f 20 + 10 + 8 + 7 + 6 = 51
a-b-c-e-h-i 20 + 10 + 8 + 7 + 13 + 5 = 63 *
a-d-e-f 20 + 11 + 7 + 6 = 44
a-d-e-h-i 20 + 11 + 7 + 13 + 5 = 56
a-d-g-i 20 + 11 + 12 + 5 = 48
* Critical path

The longest path is 64 days and is the critical path, which determines the duration of
the entire project; therefore, the draft is expected to delay 63 days to complete.

Example 3: Calculation of the earliest finish (EF) of aces activities.

Network in example calculates the earliest finish (EF) for each activity. Type the EF of
each activity in the left side of the box on his arrow. Start by event 1 and move from
left to right across the network to determine the value corresponding to the activity
EF. The EF represents the earliest elapsed from the start of project you can finish an

activity time. For all activities starting a project, its EF are equal to their durations.
For example, the EF of the activity is 20, the same as its duration, since the activity is
starting the project. For other activities, the EF of an activity is the EF of its
predecessor immediately over its duration (D). Calculate the values of EF:

EFA = 20
EFB = EFA + Db = 20 + 10 = 30
EFC = EFB + Dc = 30 + 8 = 38
EFd = EFA + Dd = 20 + 11 = 31
EFe = EFC + De = 38 + 7 = 45
Eff = Efe + Df = 45 + 6 = 51
EFG = EFd + Dg = 31 + 12 = 43
EFh = Efe + Dh = 45 + 13 = 58
EFi = Efh + Di = 58 + 5 = 63

Note that when an activity has two or more activities immediately predecessors, to
calculate its largest EF EF should be used between all immediate predecessors.
Example, the activity i has two immediate predecessors activities: h g. Since EFh = 58
is greater than EFG = 43, EFh should be used to calculate EFi:

EFi = EFh + Di = 58 + 5 = 63

Similarly, the activity and has two predecessors, c and d. Since EFC = 38 is greater
than EFd = 31, must be used to calculate EFC EFe:

EFe = EFC + De = 38 + 7 = 45

The largest EF activities ending in the event 8 represents the time waiting for
completion of the entire project and the duration of the critical path. In this example,
the largest EF EFi = 63, which is expected to RAMOV project is over 63 days after
onset.

Example 4: Calculation of the later finish (LF) and clearance (S).

The LF is the later time from the beginning of a project in which we can finish an
activity without delaying the project completion. Following along the CPM network
from right to left, the values of LF are written on the right side of the box on each
activity arrow. The activities end at the last event in a project always have a LF that is
equal to the greatest of all project activities LF. If an activity has more than one
immediate successor activity, LF LF is the smallest among his immediate successors D
activities. The value of the clearance (S of an activity is calculated by subtracting the
LF and EF placing its value at the top of the frame, above the arrow.

By one pass from left to right across the network, have been calculated earlier
terminations (EF) of all project activities. Now calculate the late finish (LF) and
clearance (S) for each activity.

solution:

Start with the event 8 at the right end of the diagram and move from right to left
across the network. Type the LF of each activity on the right side of the box on his
arrow. The LF represents the later time from the start that we can use to complete an
activity. The LF for all activities ending with the last event of the project will always
be the greatest LF. The LF of fei activities is, therefore, 63 days, which is the same
EFi, the largest EF of all activities.

LFi = EFi = 63
LFF = eff = 63

The LF for any other activity is calculated by subtracting the duration (T) of the
immediate successor activity (the activity to his immediate right into the network) of
the later completion immediate successor activity (LF). The later terminations of
activities within the project are calculated as follows:

LFH = LFi - Di = 63-5 = 58


LFG = LFi - Di = 63-5 = 58
LFE = LFH - Dh = 58-13 = 45 *
LFd = LFE - De = 45-7 = 38 *
LFC = LFE - De = 45-7 = 38
LFB = LFC - Dc = 38-8 = 30
LFA = LFB - Db = 30-10 = 20 *

* Have more than one successor activity.

Note that if an activity has more than one immediate successor activity (activities to its
immediate right into the network) the LF is calculated by comparing the values of LFD of all immediate successor activities. Then use the LF -D smaller value for LF. For
example, activities and, d as mentioned above with an asterisk (*) to indicate that they
have more than one successor activity. Take for example the activity e: the fyh
activities occur at the activity e. LFE is then calculated as follows:

Therefore LFE = 45.

Calculation of the clearance (S) for each activity.

For each activity, S = LF - EF. In each activity subtract your EF its LF and enter the
value of S at the top of the box on the arrow. The clearance of all activities on the
critical path is equal to 0.
Activities adjacent path sections share the slack. For example, consider path GINI, the
CPM network. D activity has seven days to play, activity g has 15 days to play, but the
sum of the durations of activities along the path is 48 days.
Exists, therefore, a total of 63-48 = 15 days slack along its path, so slack seven days
activities are shared between dy g.

Example 5: Calculation of the earlier onset (ES) and the later onset (LS).

Network example calculates the earliest start (ES) and the later onset (LS) for each
activity.

solution:

Get the EF, LF and S activity values of each place them in the table that follows.
Then, calculate the values ES and LS of each of the activities using the following
formulas:

It is EF = -D
LS = LF - D

Activity Duration of Activity Start early (ES) Earliest Finish (EF) Home later (LS)
Termination later (LF) Clearance (S)
to 20 0 20 0 20 0
b 10 20 30 20 30 0

c August 30 38 30 38 0
d 11 20 31 27 38 7
e 7 38 45 38 45 0
F 6 45 51 57 63 12
g 12 31 43 46 58 15
h 13 45 58 45 58 0
i 5 58 63 58 63 0

We have shown how the CPM analysis provides information for management: project
duration, critical activities and clearance activities. These calculations are developed
early in the project and change when new estimates are taken, as the project
progresses. These updates are new periodic reports that are sent to the project
managers. Exception reports CPM, the activity in compressed fails and activities are
examples of reports that provide project managers with information to date on
project details, allowing close monitoring of the activities.

Technical Assessment and Program Review

PERT CPM is virtually identical in terms of their functions, network diagrams,


internal calculations and reports resulting from project management. Minor
exceptions revolve around estimates of activity times.
CPM, the duration of an activity is based on a simple estimate of the time. In PERT,
for each activity three time estimates are made: the pessimistic time (Tp) if you have
bad luck; the most likely time (Tm) which is the best estimate consensual and
optimistic time (To) if all goes well. Of these three estimates for each activity half (Te)
and variance (Vt) is calculated.

Te = (To + 4 Tm + Tp) / 6
Vt = [(Tp - To) / 6] 2

Why PERT uses multiple time estimates for activities? Because there is uncertainty
regarding the duration of activities. When estimating a time and one pessimistic
optimist gives a probable range of durations. The most likely time is our best estimate
of the duration. Three time estimates enabling the development of an average
duration and a variance for each of the network paths. Thus defining completely the
distribution of the length of the paths. The average length of a path is equal to the sum
of the mean duration of their activities and variance of a path is equal to the sum of
the variances of its activities when the distribution of the length of a path is assumed
to be normal, and calculated its mean and variance, we can make probabilistic
statements about the trajectory. For example: 1) There is only a probability of 10%
that the critical path is greater that 35 weeks, 2) there is a 35% chance that the project
can be completed in 50 weeks means.
The ability to make probabilistic statements about the length of the trajectories of the
project is the only difference between CPM and PERT. PERT uses you for durations
of activities; all other calculations are identical in both methods.

Example 6: PERT Analysis Project.

The client asked the team to estimate the probability that the project could be
completed within 65 days. To respond, the team developed three tbsp life estimates of
project activities. Develop a project PERT analysis and answer the customer's
question.

solution:

1. First calculate the mean and variance of each activity:

activity To
(optimistic time) Tm
(Probable time) Tp
(Pessimistic Time) Te =

(To + 4 Tm + Tp) / 6 Vt =
[(Tp-To) / 6] 2
20 22 20.00 18 0.44
b August 10 14 10.33 1.00
c 5 8 9 7.67 0.44
d October 11 12 11.00 0.11
and 7 7 7 7.00 0.00
f 4 6 7 5.83 0.25
g December 10 14 12.00 0.44
h December 13 15 13.17 0.25
i 5 5 5 5.00 0.00

2. Then draw the PERT network and calculate the earliest finish (EF), the later
ending (LF) and the clearance (S) for each activity. Determine the path or route
crttica.

As can be seen in the network shown above, the abcehi path is the critical path and is
expected to take 63.17 days.

3. Then calculate the standard deviation of the critical path:

Add the variances of activities along the critical path abcehi:

Vpath = Va + Vb + Vc + Go + Vh + Vi = 1.0 + 0.44 + 0.44 + 0.25 + 0 + 0 = 2.13

path = (vpath) 1/2 = (2.13) 1/2 = 1.46 days.

4. Then calculate the probability of completing the project within 65 days:

Assuming that the distribution of time of completion of the abcehi path is normal with
a mean of 63.17 days and a standard deviation of 1.46 days:

Average = 63.17 Days


path = 1.25

You find how many standard deviations from the mean is 65 days:

Z = (65 to 63.17) /

path = (65 - 63.17) / 1.46 = 1.25

Using the table of normal probability distribution for the value of Z = 1.25 we find
that the probability that the project is completed in less than 65 days is 0.89435
(approximately 89.4%) but that's the good news. The bad news is that there is a
probability of 0.10565 (approximately 10.6%) of the project takes longer than 65 days.

In the PERT analysis must take some care in interpreting the meaning of a critical
path. The critical path in a PERT analysis is simply the path having the longest
expected duration. The critical path of the example was the abcehi career, he had a
life expectancy of 63.17 days, and there is a probability of 10.6% that this path would
take more than 65 days. RAMOV network may have one or more paths having
smaller expected durations, but subject to considerable uncertainty. These noncritical paths may, in fact, more likely to require more than 65 days to complete that
abcehi path. In these cases, the variance of the critical path diminish the importance
of the actual variance of the duration of the project. The meaning here is that when
PERT is used to determine the probability of exceeding a particular project
completion date, analysts should pay attention to the critical path and other routes or
paths with expected durations close to criticism.

problems:

CPM

1) A project has the following activities, precedence relationships and duration of


activities:

Activity predecessors Activities


immediate Activity duration (days) Activity Activities immediate predecessors
Activity duration (days)
a - 15 f 6
b - 8 g to 17
c-5hf9
d b 13 i g 6
and c 9 j d, e 12

a. Draw a CPM network for the project

b. Give an overview of the project by calculating the length of each path.


c. What is the critical path? What is the estimated duration of the project?

2) A project has the following activities, precedence relationships and duration of


activities:

Activity predecessors Activities


immediate Activity duration (days) Activity Activities immediate predecessors
Activity duration (days)
a - 7 e b 19
b - f 10 21
g c 14 c, 14 d
d b 12 h f, g, e 8

d. Draw a CPM network for the project


e. Give an overview of the project by calculating the length of each path.
f. What is the critical path? What is the estimated duration of the project?

3) A company is about to start a project to design a production process for the


manufacture of a new product. Management has estimated that the project will
require approximately 45 days to complete. Although initially 45 days seemed very
little time to process engineers, after an analysis has led to the conclusion that it could
probably meet this deadline because the products and processes were so similar to
current processing technologies in use within the plant. These activities, their
precedence relationships and their durations were estimated by engineers:

Activity Activity duration (days) predecessors Activities

immediate
12 b 10 c8d 14 b
e6c
f 18 b, a
g 11 d, e
h 21 c
i 7 f, g

a. Create a CPM network for project design.


b. Calculate the EF, LF, and slack for each activity. Enter values on the CPM
network.
c. Calculate the ES and LS in all activities. Type in a list of values ES, EF, LS, LF and
play.
d. What is the critical path? What is the estimated duration of the project?

PERT

1) An activity in a project has three time estimates: Optimistic time (to) = 16 time
more likely (tm) = 19 days, pessimistic time (tp) = 21 days.

a. Calculate the expected time or duration of activity (te).


b. Compute the variance in activity (Vt).

c. Calculate the standard deviation of the activity (t).

2) For a specific project activities were defined below:

Activity Predecessor eo m = a = b = ep em te = e
a-246
b - 8 May 11
c - April 9, 14
d to August 10, 12
and a, b July 11, 15
f b 12 June 18
g a, b, c December 15 18
h b, c 15 15 15
i c 14 20 26
j d 9 August 10
k and September 18, 27
lf369
m g, h 4 5 6
nh111
or i May 10, 15
p i 4 August 12
q j, k, l July 14, 21
r j, k, l September 11, 13
s j, k, l 8 8 8

t j, k, l, m 16 August 24
u n, o 10 June 14
v p February 8 14
w v 13 November 15
x q October 16, 22
and q, r, s 14 14 14
z t 13 19 25
a1 t, u, w 2 4 6
a1 a2 5 7 9
a3 y, z 22 22 22
a4 x 7 January 13

a. With this information network programming construct, define the critical path and
set both the expected duration of the project as the variance and standard deviation
for this project.

3) The company is preparing EF planning, applying the PERT technique, a computer


project, whose activities are indicated in the table below, as well as its precedents and
duration expressed in weeks (optimistic, pessimistic and most likely):

activity
previous Estimate
optimistic estimate

most likely estimate


pessimistic
a-123
ba246
c b, h 1 1 1
d-369
eg234
fe357
gd123
hg123
id135
ji345
kd234
l j, k 3 5 7
m c, l 1 2 3

Is asked:

a. Complete design of the graph, including clearances and critical path.


b. Matrix associated to the graph.
c. What effects the project will have on these events? (justify and demonstrate
results):
i. Activity A 9 weeks late.
ii. D activity is delayed three weeks.

iii. L activity is reduced by 1 week.