Julia Sweig Discusses U.S.-Cuba Diplomacy - Council on For...

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After the Thaw: What's Next in

U.S.-Cuba Relations?
Interviewee: Julia E. Sweig, Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for
Latin America Studies and Director for Latin America Studies
Interviewer: Danielle Renwick, Copy Editor
December 19, 2014
The announcement that the United States and Cuba will open diplomatic ties
for the first time in fifty-three years has been met with relief, anger, and
questions on both sides. The policy shift comes at a time of growing consensus
in the United States that a new approach is in order, says CFR Senior Fellow
for Latin America Studies Julia E. Sweig, who believes U.S. engagement with
Cuba will bring reform to the island in the long term. "It will be very hard to
keep the lid on the population's interest in dynamically participating in political
debate and seeing themselves as citizens of the globe, not just of one island,"
says Sweig.

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A
man sits at his home watching Cuba's President Raul Castro speak during a
television broadcast in Havana December 17, 2014. (Photo: Stringer/Courtesy
Reuters)
Reestablishing diplomatic ties could be seen as risky for both sides,
especially on the U.S. political front. Why were Presidents Barack Obama
and Raul Castro willing to take this risk now?
In both cases the risks are far outweighed by the rewards. In the United States,
the opportunity for President Obama to seize upon this issue and turn it into
one of his major foreign policy legacies is significant. [It not only writes] a new
chapter after fifty years of stasis in the U.S.-Cuban relationship, but more
broadly allows the United States to restart a conversation and rebuild its
standing in Latin America.
The domestic politics in the United States are such that Obama has an
opportunity. The Cuban-American community is not a monolith: Obama won
[the Cuban-American] vote in the state of Florida in the 2012 elections.

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"There is a near-unanimous consensus in the United Statesin the private

sector, editorial opinion, cultural sectors, and educational institutionsthat its
time to move on and approach Cuba differently."
There is a near unanimous consensus in the United Statesin the private
sector, editorial opinion, cultural sectors, and educational institutionsthat its
time to move on and approach Cuba differently. The president regards that as
far more significant than the voices of the serious opposition, which still exist,
but whose own constituents are now traveling and sending remittances to their
families in Cuba.
In Cuba, Raul Castro has said he will step down in 2018 and has designated
his successor, [Vice President Miguel Daz-Canel]. He has consolidated his
political power and has launched his slow, but modestly effective, set of
economic and political reforms. For those reforms to accelerate, the calculus is
that putting the relationship with the United States on better footing and
bringing in American capital, technology, and know-how is in the national
interest. This is especially promising given the proximity of the markets and the
geographical and historical closeness of the two societies, and given dropping
oil prices and uncertainty in Venezuela.
This move, as were already seeing, is very popular domestically in Cubanot
only because of the economic and diplomatic openings but because the
"heros," the [three still-imprisoned members of the] Cuban Five [intelligence
officers arrested in the United States in 1998]; were brought home. Theirs had
been a nationalist cause clbre in Cuba for many years.
Was Cubas younger generation of leaders involved in this process of
rapprochement?

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Not that Im aware of. This is the single most important diplomatic, geopolitical
move that the Castro government has made in fifty yearsperhaps since 1962,
when it accepted nuclear missles from the Soviet Union. Some of the
negotiators, strategists, diplomats, and [technocrats] involved might be of a
younger generation, but the political decision to move forward, and to see
Obama as the best possible American partner that the Cubans could expect for
some time, was taken at the highest levels, Im sure with the endorsement of
the younger generation. But this was a Castro event.
How do you see things changing in Cuba in the coming months and
years?
The implementation of the new economic openings to the United States is
going to take some time. Various agencies will have to write and roll out
regulations, which means bureaucracy and at least some politics. The assistant
U.S. secretary of state for Latin America, [Roberta S. Jacobson], is leading a
delegation to Cuba in January for immigration talks and to further the
discussion about diplomatic relations.
[The opening of relations] is giving the Cuban population a sense that their
future wont be one of constant mobilization and tension with the United States,
but rather one of opportunities to freely pursue the cultural and family ties that
have always existed. Economic ties can now be more dominant than the
national-security conflict of the last half century.
Five, ten years down the road, if the economic openings are to deepen, then
well see Cuba become downright boring. That is, itll be a struggling,
developing economy, with a highly trained, educated class of young people.
Some of them will have left, some might return home and try to make good on

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their futures in Cuba. This is part of what I see as the slow molting of Cuban
society from the communist Cuban society of the last thirty or forty years to one
that is becoming a more open, porous society that is less on edge.
Despite the restoration of diplomatic ties, the embargo remains in place
for now. Do you think the U.S. Congress is likely to end Helms-Burton, the
law that prohibits most trade with Cuba?
Once the steps the president announced Wednesday are implemented, they
will create their own political momentumin the United States, in Cuba itself,
but also in the U.S. Congress. Legislation that might unpack, piece by piece,
Helms-Burton would be the logical result of that, but I dont see that happening
in the short term.
I see the presidents executive authority around trade, investment, banking,
telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and travel creating a political
dynamic that would ultimately shift opinion inside Congress to eventually
repeal, or no longer enforce, Helms-Burton. But not in the immediate term.
The Obama administration says it hopes to influence Cuba's stance on
democracy, free speech, and human rights through direct diplomacy and
exchange. Do you think this new strategy will be more effective?
Yes. The best way to promote human rights and democracy and open society is
through engagement. Of course, theres the argument that we [engage] with
China and they dont have a more open society. But there are eleven million
Cubans there and two million people of Cuban descent in the United
Stateswe are so close to one another. Although there is very limited Internet
access now, part of this [diplomatic] package is a commitment for access to
grow. From my experience, it will be very hard to keep the lid on the
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population's interest in dynamically participating in political debate and seeing

themselves as citizens of the globe, not just of one island.
That said, I dont think we're going to see multiparty elections the day after
tomorrow, or even next yearalthough I could be wrong. Things move slowly in
Cuba. But part of the deal involves not only releasing Alan Gross, but also
fifty-three political prisoners. Thats an improvement in human rights.
What impact could this policy shift have on U.S. relations in Latin
America?
The unresolved issue of the U.S. relationship with Cuba is a huge symbolic
problem and it stands in the way of the United States being able to regain its
standing with a region that looks nothing like it did in 1959, when the revolution
took power, but also nothing like it did when the Cold War ended. Putting the
Cuba issue to rest, demonstrating the substance behind Obamas rhetoric
around partnership, and recognizing that the door to a new relationship with
Latin America goes through Havana is very powerful.
I think well see the benefits of that at the Summit of the Americas in April. As a
result of this move, Obama can go, Raul Castro will go, and they can have a
conversation on democracy and human rights that would not otherwise have
been possible.

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