Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Probability
4.1
E = {3, 4},
and
F = {4, 5, 6}.
Give:
a) Fc ;
c) (E F)c ;
b) Ec Fc ;
d) Ec F.
Solution:
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} E = {3, 4} F = {4, 5, 6}.
a) Fc means the elements not in F. They are 1, 2 and 3.
b) Ec Fc means the elements not in E and not in F. The elements
not in E are 1, 2, 5 and 6. So only 1 and 2 are not in E and F.
c) (E F)c means elements which are neither in E nor F (E F), so
the elements in E or F or both are 3, 4, 5 and 6. So once again the
answer is 1 and 2.
d) Ec F are the elements not in E and in F. Ec elements are 1, 2, 5
and 6 and F elements are 4, 5, and 6, so the answer is 5 and 6.
4.2
Early
20
10
0
30
Delivery time
On time Late
20
10
90
50
10
90
120
150
Total
50
150
100
300
4.3
Solution:
CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY
4.4
Solution:
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1. Therefore P(C) = 1
1
2
= 61 .
1
3
and
1
3
4.5
1
4
Solution:
If they are independent:
P(A B) = P(A) P(B)
1 1
=
3 4
1
.
=
12
4.6
Manufacturer
A
Z
% Good Parts
97
93
% Bad Parts
3
7
Solution:
Note that the percentage of good and bad parts total to 100!
a) The probability that a randomly chosen part comes from A is 0.6
(60%), the probability that one of As parts is bad is 0.03 (3%), so
the probability that a randomly chosen part comes from A and is
bad is 0.6 0.03 = 0.018.
b) Add all the outcomes. They are:
(0.60.97)+(0.60.03)+(0.40.93)+(0.40.07) = 0.582+0.018+0.372+0.028 = 1.
c) The probability of receiving a bad part is the probability of either
receiving a bad part from A or from B, i.e.:
(0.6 0.03) + (0.4 0.07) = 0.018 + 0.028 = 0.046.
4.7
Solution:
Here we have:
Probabilities
Not fail Fail
0.9
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.9
0.1
Device
A
B
C
D
The system fails if both A and B fail (or more) or both C and D fail
(or more).
CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY
To work out the probability that the system works properly, first
work out the probability it will fail, P(F). The probability it will
work is P(Fc ).
The system fails if:
A, B, C and D all fail = (0.1)4 = 0.0001
or ABC, ABD, ACD or BCD fail = (0.1)3 0.9 4 = 0.0036
or A and B fail and C & D are OK = 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 = 0.0081
or C and D fail and A & B are OK = 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 = 0.0081.
So the total probability that the system will fail is
0.0001 + 0.0036 + 0.0162 = 0.0199, which makes the probability it
will run smoothly 1 0.0199 = 0.9801.
Solutions prepared by Dr James Abdey.